{{ block title }} Probability that the asset value will stay the same {{if player.time_pressure == 1}} at the end of the 8th quarter compared to the 4th quarter {{else}} at the end of next year compared to the end of this year {{endif}} {{ endblock }} {{ block content }} {{if player.time_pressure == 1}}

Below is the reminder of the development of your asset value in the past 4 quarters. This development is still open for the next 4 quarters.

{{if player.d_qrt1 == 100}} {{else}} {{endif}} {{if player.d_qrt2 == 100}} {{else}} {{endif}} {{if player.d_qrt3 == 100}} {{else}} {{endif}} {{if player.d_qrt4 == 100}} {{else}} {{endif}}
1,000 points
⇣
1st quarter {{player.qrt1}} points1st quarter {{player.qrt1}} points
⇣
2nd quarter {{player.qrt2}} points2nd quarter {{player.qrt2}} points
⇣
3rd quarter {{player.qrt3}} points3rd quarter {{player.qrt3}} points
⇣
4th quarter {{player.qrt4}} points4th quarter {{player.qrt4}} points
⇣
5th quarter
⇣
6th quarter
⇣
7th quarter
⇣
8th quarter ? points


{{else}}

Below is the reminder of the development of your asset value in the past year. This development is still open for the next year.

1,000 points
⇣
⇣
⇣
⇣
End of this year {{player.qrt4}} points
⇣
⇣
⇣
⇣
End of next year ? points


{{endif}}

For each choice, you choose between Option A and Option B:

For example, in Choice 11, you would prefer Option A if you believe the probability of the asset value staying the same is less than 35%. Conversely, you would prefer Option B if you believe the probability of the asset value staying the same is greater than 35%.

We imagine that most people will switch from choosing Option A to Option B at some point in the list. Since the chance of getting 1000 points in Option A decreases as you move down the list, we assume that if you choose Option B in one choice, you will choose Option B for all subsequent choices.

The computer will select one choice at random to be paid for real.

{{ formfield_errors 'switching_point_same' }}
Choice Option A
Win 1000 points with the following probability (and 0 point otherwise) 		Option B
Win 1000 points if the asset value in the 8th quarter stays the same (and 0 point otherwise)
1 100% {{if player.time_pressure == 0}} {{if player.qrt4 == 600}} {{elif player.qrt4 == 800}} {{elif player.qrt4 == 1000}} {{elif player.qrt4 == 1200}} {{else}} {{endif}} {{else}} {{if player.qrt4 == 600}} {{elif player.qrt4 == 800}} {{elif player.qrt4 == 1000}} {{elif player.qrt4 == 1200}} {{else}} {{endif}} {{endif}}
2 85%
3 75%
4 70%
5 65%
6 60%
7 55%
8 50%
9 45%
10 40%
11 35%
12 30%
13 25%
14 20%
15 15%
16 10%
17 5%
18 2%
19 1%
20 0%

When you are ready, click Next to proceed. You cannot come back to change your answer.

{{ endblock }} {{ block scripts }} {{ endblock }}