{{ block title }}
    Instructions: Task 2, 3, and 4
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{{ block content }}

    <p>
        In task 2, 3 and 4, you are asked to report your beliefs about the probabilities of three events:
        the asset value increasing, the asset value staying the same, and the asset value decreasing.
        Each probability can range from 0% to 100%.
    </p>
    <p>
        Your bonus payment will be determined as follows. After you report your belief about the probability of an event,
        the computer will draw a random number from 0 to 100.
            <ul>
                <li>If your reported belief is larger than or equal to the random number,
                    you get {{C.point_increase}} points if the event occurs, and nothing otherwise.</li>
                <li>If your reported belief is lower than the random number,
                    you get {{C.point_increase}} points with a probability equal to the random number.</li>
            </ul>
    </p>
        <b>To maximize your expected bonus payment, you should report your true beliefs about the probabilities of the events.</b>
        <br>
        <br>
    <p>
        To show why, suppose you believe it is equally likely that the asset value will either <u>increase</u>
        or <u>not increase</u> at the end of
        {{if player.time_pressure == 1}} the 8th quarter{{else}} the next year{{endif}}, i.e., your belief regarding the asset value increasing is 50%.
    </p>
    <p>
        <ul>
        <li>If you report a belief lower than your true belief, say 40% instead of 50%,
            it is more likely that the computer will draw a random number larger than the belief you reported.
            Specifically, for any random number between 40 and 50, you will only have a 40% to 50% chance of receiving {{C.point_increase}} points.
            This is lower than the probability of your true belief, which is 50%.</li><br>

        <li>If you report a belief higher than your true belief, say 60% instead of 50%,
            it is more likely that the computer will draw a random number smaller than the probability you reported.
            Specifically, for any random number between 50 and 60, you have 50% chance of receiving {{C.point_increase}} points.
            This is lower than the probability equal to the random number.</li>
        </ul>
    </p>
        <br>
        <br>

    {{ next_button }}

{{ endblock }}