{{ block title }} Instructions {{ endblock }} {{ block content }} {{if player.time_pressure == 1}}

Below is the reminder of the development of your asset value in the past 4 quarters. This development is still open for the next 4 quarters.

{{if player.d_qrt1 == 100}} {{else}} {{endif}} {{if player.d_qrt2 == 100}} {{else}} {{endif}} {{if player.d_qrt3 == 100}} {{else}} {{endif}} {{if player.d_qrt4 == 100}} {{else}} {{endif}}
1,000 points
⇣
1st quarter {{player.qrt1}} points1st quarter {{player.qrt1}} points
⇣
2nd quarter {{player.qrt2}} points2nd quarter {{player.qrt2}} points
⇣
3rd quarter {{player.qrt3}} points3rd quarter {{player.qrt3}} points
⇣
4th quarter {{player.qrt4}} points4th quarter {{player.qrt4}} points
⇣
5th quarter
⇣
6th quarter
⇣
7th quarter
⇣
8th quarter ? points


{{else}}

Below is the reminder of the development of your asset value in the past year. This development is still open for the next year.

1,000 points
⇣
⇣
⇣
⇣
End of this year {{player.qrt4}} points
⇣
⇣
⇣
⇣
End of next year ? points


{{endif}}



The value of your asset {{if player.time_pressure == 1}} in the 4th quarter is {{else}} at the end of this year is {{endif}} {{player.qrt4}} points. Over the next four quarters, the value of your asset can increase or decrease by 100 points each quarter. This means the value of your asset {{if player.time_pressure == 1}} in the 8th quarter {{else}} at the end f next year {{endif}} can:

{{if player.time_pressure == 1}} {{if player.qrt4 == 600}} {{elif player.qrt4 == 800}} {{elif player.qrt4 == 1000}} {{elif player.qrt4 == 1200}} {{else}} {{endif}} {{else}} {{if player.qrt4 == 600}} {{elif player.qrt4 == 800}} {{elif player.qrt4 == 1000}} {{elif player.qrt4 == 1200}} {{else}} {{endif}} {{endif}}

Since these outcomes (increase, stay the same, and decrease) are mutually exclusive, the probabilities you assign to them should add up to 100%.

In the next three tasks, you will face a list of choices similar to the figure below but with different Option B. In this example, for each choice, you will decide between Option A and Option B:

For example, in Choice 11, you would prefer Option A if you believe the probability of the asset value increasing is less than 35%. Conversely, you would prefer Option B if you believe the probability of the asset value increasing is greater than 35%.

{{if player.time_pressure == 1}} {{if player.qrt4 == 600}} {{elif player.qrt4 == 800}} {{elif player.qrt4 == 1000}} {{elif player.qrt4 == 1200}} {{else}} {{endif}} {{else}} {{if player.qrt4 == 600}} {{elif player.qrt4 == 800}} {{elif player.qrt4 == 1000}} {{elif player.qrt4 == 1200}} {{else}} {{endif}} {{endif}}


On the next page, you will be asked, "What is 2 + 2?" You must answer 10 instead of 4. If your answer is incorrect, you will be redirected back to this page to re-read the instructions.

We imagine that most people would choose Option A in Choice 1, as it guarantees 1000 points, compared to Option B, which only offers a chance to receive 1000 points. Conversely, we imagine that most people will choose Option B in Choice 20, as it provides a chance to earn 1000 points, whereas Option A guarantees 0 point.

Thus, we imagine that most people will switch from choosing Option A to Option B at some point in the list. Since the chance of getting 1000 points in Option A decreases as you move down the list, we assume that if you choose Option B in one choice, you will choose Option B for all subsequent choices.

The computer will select one choice at random to be paid for real.

{{ next_button }} {{ endblock }}