Question 2

Imagine that your country is preparing for the outbreak of an unusual new disease, which is expected to kill 600 people. Two alternative programs to combat the disease have been proposed: Program A and Program B.

If Program A is adopted, 200 people will be saved.

If Program B is adopted, there is a 1/3 probability that 600 people will be saved, and a 2/3 probability that no people will be saved.

Assuming that these are the exact scientific estimates of the consequences of the programs, which one will you choose as the most effective?

- Program A

- Program B

- Both programs are equally effective