Task

Imagine that the US is preparing for the outbreak of an unusual Asian disease, which is expected to kill 600 people. Two alternative programs to combat the disease have been proposed. Assume that the exact scientific estimates of the consequences of the programs are as follows:

If Program A is adopted, 200 people will be saved.

If Program B is adopted, there is a 1/3 probability that 600 people will be saved, and a 2/3 probability that no people will be saved.

If Program A is adopted, 400 people will die.

If Program B is adopted, there is a 1/3 probability that nobody will die, and a 2/3 probability that 600 people will die.

Which Program do you prefer?