{% load staticfiles otree %}


<div class="card bg-light m-3"><div class="card-body">
    <p><b><span class="important-text">How is your payment determined if Question 3 is randomly selected for payment?</span></b></p>
    <ul>
        <li>The computer will generate a lottery box with 100 balls, with a random proportion of <span style="color:#800080">purple</span> balls (from 1 to 100).<br>
        <i>Note: all proportions of purple balls are equally likely (have the same probability of happening).</i></li>
        <li>Your <b>reported probability</b> defines if your bonus will depend on the statement in Question 3 being indeed true, or on a random draw from the lottery box. How?</li>
        <ul>
            <li>If the box has a <u>higher</u> number of purple balls than your reported probability: <br> A ball will be randomly drawn from the box. If it is <b><span style="color:#800080">purple</span>, you win</b>.</li>
            <li>If the box has a <u>lower or equal</u> number of purple balls than your reported probability: <br> The statement in Question 3 is checked. If it was indeed <b>true, you win</b>.</li>
        </ul>
        <li>Your bonus depends on the lottery only when the probability of wining it is higher than your reported probability of Question 3 being true.
            Therefore, the method applied will always favour your probability to earn the bonus.</li>
    </ul>
    <p><b><span class="important-text">Example:</span></b>
    <ul>
        <li>Imagine you <b>reported a probability of 20 percent</b> that the statement in Question 3 is true.</li>
        <li>The computer randomly generated a box with 100 balls, <u>40 of which are <span style="color:#800080">purple</span></u>.</li>
        <li>This means the probability to randomly draw a <span style="color:#800080">purple</span> ball from the box is <b>40 percent</b>.<br>
            <b>Since 40 (<i>purple balls</i>) is higher than 20 (<i>reported probability</i>):</b></li>
        <ul>
            <li><b>Your payment depends on the box</b>, and it does no longer matter whether the statement in Q3 is true or false.</li>
            <li>A ball will be randomly drawn from that box: <b>if it is <span style="color:#800080">purple</span>, you win</b> the bonus. Otherwise, you don't.</li>
        </ul>
        <br>
        <li>Imagine instead that you had <b>reported a probability of 60 percent</b> that the statement in Question 3 is true.</li>
        <li>This time, the computer randomly generated a box with 100 balls, <u>50 of which are <span style="color:#800080">purple</span></u>.</li>
            <b>Since 60 (<i>reported probability</i>) is higher than 50 (<i>purple balls</i>):</b></li>
        <ul>
            <li><b>Your payment depends on the statement</b> in Question 3, and the lottery box no longer matters in this case.</li>
            <li>The statement in Question 3 is checked: <b>if it is true, you win</b> the bonus. Otherwise, you don't.</li>
        </ul>
    </ul>
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