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Instruction 3/3: Scenarios
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Each round is a scenario question of the Assessment Task which shows the potential information about the drawn balls you may receive.
At the end of the experiment, we will check whether the actual information implemented by the computer matches with any of the {{num_rounds}} scenario questions.
If the actual information implemented by the computer MATCHES with any of the {{num_rounds}} scenario questions, your answer in that scenario question will be automatically used as your guess in the Assessment Task to determines your bonus based on the Bonus Rule.
If it does NOT MATCH, you will have to submit your guess manually in the Assessment Task, which determines your bonus based on the Bonus Rule.
Since anyone could be the actual one, you should treat every scenario question seriously.
To help you interpret the information about drawn balls, the computer does the following test and shows you the results:
Given the number of drawn balls, the computer repeats the following procedure in 100 million times:
Each time, the computer first randomly draws a box;
then, draws the same number of balls from the box;
next, records the number of orange balls in the drawn balls and which box these balls are drawn from.
The test results aggregate all the records, and present them in a histogram.
EXAMPLE: Suppose the information says:
Then, the computer will test this in the following way:
You will see the following histogram that aggregates all the records:
EXAMPLE (continued): How to use this histogram?
As the information indicates 5 orange balls are selected out of the 9 draws, you can check the test results in the graph:
about 4 million times, these balls are from Box L;
and about 9 million times, these balls are from Box R;
Here is an example of scenario question to help you get familiar with the interface. The information and histograms in the actual tasks may vary.
By dragging the handle on the slider bar, the closer the handle to one box, the more likely you think the box is selected.
Suppose you see the following information about the balls drawn out of the selected box and test results:
Given the info, what is the percentage chance that the selected box is Box L vs Box R?
Click on the slider bar then drag to assess.
| Box L |
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% |
There is % chance that Box L was selected.
There is % chance that Box R was selected.
| Box R |
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% |
Once you click the next button, the comprehension check questions will start.