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<b>General Setting</b>
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In this experiment you will be given 150 experimental dollars to invest in a stock.  Your job is to choose when to buy and sell the stock, so that you earn the most money by the end of the experiment.  Throughout the experiment, you will see the price of the stock changing (more detail below), and you will use this information to decide when to buy and sell.  When you sell a stock, you receive an amount of cash equal to the price of the stock.  When you buy a stock, you receive one unit of the stock, but you must give up an amount of cash equal to the current price of the stock.
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The experiment consists of 2 sets, each comprising 30 periods. After the first set, there will be a short break and you will restart the second set at period 0. You will face the same tasks for a similar, but not identical, stock. A such the price processes of both stocks follow the same rules but are independently determined:   
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In period 0 the stock price amounts to $100. The stock changes price in every period depending on whether the stock is in a good state or in a bad state.  In the good state, the stock goes up with a 70% chance, and it goes down with a 30% chance.  In the bad state, the stock goes down with a 70% chance and it goes up with a 30% chance. The size of the price change is always $10, either up or down. As such, price increases and decreases are indicative of the state.
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In period 0, the computer will randomly (i.e., with equal probability) decide whether the stock is in the good state or the bad state. After each price update, there is a 20% chance the stock switches state (i.e. if the stock is in the good state in this period, there is a 80% chance that the stock will be in the good state in the next period as well).
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In both sets the stock is bought for you in period 0 at its price of $100.  Therefore, you will own one unit of the stock and have an account balance of $50 remaining. For the remainder of the experiment, you are only allowed to hold a maximum of one unit of the stock, and you cannot hold negative units (no short selling.)  However, you can carry a negative account balance by buying a stock for more money than you have, but any negative cash balances will be deducted from your final earnings.    
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<b>Task</b>    
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In the experiment, you will see four types of screens: a price update screen, a probability estimation screen, a trading decision screen and an information screen. 
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In the price update screen, you will be told if the selected stock price has gone up or down and the resulting updated stock price. You will not be asked to do anything during this screen; you will simply see information about the change in price.
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In the probability estimation screen and you are asked to guess the likelihood, that the stock is currently in the good state. In particular, you will indicate a percentage number between 0% and 100% using a slider.
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In the trading decision screen you will be asked to make a trading decision.  If you currently hold a unit of the stock, you will be asked if you would like to sell the stock at the current price.  If you do not currently own a unit of the stock, you will be asked if you would like to buy a unit at the current price.    
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In the information screen, you are told how your trading decision affected your account balance.
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On the next page the compensation scheme is described.
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<b>Compensation</b>       
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In addition to the participation fee of £1.70, both, the probability estimation task as well as the trading decision task are compensated.
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For the probability estimation task ten of your estimates are randomly selected at the end of the study. Out of these ten estimates, your compensation increases by £0.20 for each estimate which is within 5% of the correct probability that the stock is in the good state (e.g. the correct probability is 50% and your estimate is between 45% and 55%). 
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For the trading decision task one of the two sets will be randomly selected for payment at the end of the experiment. Your compensation equals the final account balance in this set divided by 150 (e.g. $150 in the experiment translates to £1.00 compensation). 
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If you hold the stock at the end of a set, the stock will be liquidated at the final period's stock price and the proceedings will be added to your account balance. Thus, you do not have to worry about selling the stock before a set ends.   
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If you feel that you understand the instructions, press "Next" to proceed to a few comprehension questions before the experiment starts.    
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Please answer the following questions to demonstrate that you understand the setting.    
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