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You have reached the end of the session. Thank you for your participation. In this page, one of the images will be randomly chosen from the 160 images, and you will see its results.

An image was randomly selected for your payment.
Selected Image

Here is the image, and the person was {{ truth_text }}.

As a reminder, for this image you chose that the probability the person was over 21 is {{ reported_prob_over }}% and the probability the person was under 21 is {{ reported_prob_under }}%.

Therefore, your probability of getting the bonus payment of $2.50 given the payment rule we are using is {{ win_chance_pct }}%.

If you click the button below, you can see why truthfully telling your belief of the probability leads to maximizing your likelihood of getting the bonus payment.

How do we determine your payoff?

Let's consider an image which is either over or under 21 years old. If you report that the probability of over 21 is $$q$$, there will be $$1-(1-q)^2$$ chance of winning $2.50 if it is over 21; and $$1-q^2$$ chance of winning the $2.50 if it is under 21.

Why should you truthfully report? Suppose you actually think the probability of above 21 is $$\pi$$, which does not necessarily equal to $$q$$, then your overall probability of getting $2.50 is:

$$(1-(1-q)^2)^\pi+(1-q^2)^\pi$$

After doing some math, you will see that it is maximized when $$q=\pi$$.

Please go to the next page to determine your bonus payment.

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