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Guess again how many additional tasks you will have to solve

Right now, we would like again to know what you think is the likelihood that you have to solve 40 or fewer additional sequences.

Again, you can earn a bonus payment for guessing accurately. Out of all guesses you make in our study the computer will randomly choose one to be payoff relevant for you at the end of this study. For this randomly chosen guess, you can earn {{ Constants.extra_payoff}}€ and this payment comes on top of your reimbursement of {{ Constants.base_payment}}€ for participation in all parts of the experiment. The chance that you win the {{ Constants.extra_payoff}}€ is the largest, if you simply state your true expectation.


You can click on the button below if you want to learn more about the payment rule.

For your guess, we will always ask you how likely you think a particular state is. For example, we may ask how likely you think it is (in percent) that you have to solve 40 or fewer additional sequences. Thus, when you make a guess, you can pick any number between 0 and 100 and the number you select indicates the chance (out of 100) you assign to the state we ask for (for example, the chance that you have to solve 40 or fewer additional sequences).

For your payoff-relevant guess, the computer will then randomly draw two numbers between 0 and 100 (including 0, 100 and all decimal numbers between) and all numbers are equally likely to be selected. The two random numbers are drawn independently. That is, irrespective of the first number drawn, the second number is again randomly chosen from the interval of 0 to 100 such that the outcome of the first draw in no way affects the outcome of the second number drawn.

You will receive the {{ Constants.extra_payoff }}€ bonus if ...

Given this rule, you can maximize the probability of winning by simply stating your true expectation.


On the next page you can enter your guess.


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