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Guess how many additional sequences you will have to solve:

Remember: Each group member was randomly assigned a unique number of additional sequences to be solved and no group member has been assigned the same number of sequences. The possible numbers of additional sequences are 8, 16, 24, 32, 40, 48, 56, 64, 72 and 80.

Right now, we would like to know more about your own expectations about the number of additional sequences that you have to solve, and we offer a bonus payment for guessing the number correctly:

As explained before, we will ask you to make several guesses in this study. The computer will randomly choose one of these guesses you make to be payoff relevant. This is the first such guess.

For each guess you make, you maximize the chances of winning the additional {{ Constants.extra_payoff}}€, if you simply state your true expectation. (The button below provides further details on the exact procedure.)



For your guess, we will always ask you how likely you think a particular state is. For example, we may ask how likely you think it is (in percent) that you have to solve 40 or fewer additional sequences. Thus, when you make a guess, you can pick any number between 0 and 100 and the number you select indicates the chance (out of 100) you assign to the state we ask for (for example, the chance that you have to solve 40 or fewer additional sequences).

For your payoff-relevant guess, the computer will then randomly draw two numbers between 0 and 100 (including 0, 100 and all decimal numbers between) and all numbers are equally likely to be selected. The two random numbers are drawn independently. That is, irrespective of the first number drawn, the second number is again randomly chosen from the interval of 0 to 100 such that the outcome of the first draw in no way affects the outcome of the second number drawn.

You will receive the {{ Constants.extra_payoff }}€ bonus if ...

Given this rule, you can maximize the probability of winning by simply stating your true expectation.

On the next page you can enter your guess.


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