Guess how well you performed:
We will soon provide you with some more information on how well you rank, and in {{ Constants.days_double }} days, we will inform you about your exact rank in your group. Remember: Each group member in your group was assigned a rank based on their IQ score (1 = best, 10 = worst, and no group member has the same rank).
Right now, we would like to know more about your expectations about the rank you achieved. You can also earn a bonus payment for guessing your rank correctly.
As explained before, we will ask you to make several guesses in this study. The computer will randomly choose one of these guesses you make to be payoff relevant. This is the first such guess.
For each guess you make, you maximize the chances of winning the additional {{ Constants.extra_payoff}}€, if you simply state your true expectation. (The button below provides further details on the exact procedure.)
We will always ask you how likely you think a particular state is. Now, we ask how likely you think it is (in percent) that you ranked in the top half of your group. Thus, when you make a guess, you can pick any number between 0 and 100 and the number you select indicates the chance (out of 100) you assign to the state we ask for (that you ranked in the top half).
For your payoff-relevant guess, the computer will then randomly draw two numbers between 0 and 100 (including 0, 100 and decimal numbers) and all numbers are equally likely to be selected. The two random numbers are drawn independently. That is, irrespective of the first number drawn, the second number is again randomly chosen from the interval of 0 to 100 such that the outcome of the first draw in no way affects the outcome of the second number drawn.
You will receive the {{ Constants.extra_payoff }}€ bonus if ...
To maximize the probability of winning, you simply need to state your true expectation.
On the next page you can enter your guess.