In this experiment, you will play the Assessment Task. In the task, there are two boxes, Box G and Box O. As shown below, each box contains 10 balls, either GREEN or ORANGE.

Box G contains 7 green balls and 3 orange balls. Box O contains 7 orange balls and 3 green balls. The composition of the boxes remains the same throughout the experiment.

At the beginning of the Assessment Task, the computer will randomly pick one box, either Box G or Box O. Each box is equally likely to be picked. We will NOT tell you which box is picked.

Your task is to assess: What is the percentage chance that the picked box is Box G vs Box O?

You will submit your assessment simply by dragging a slider as in the example below:

Example

What is the percentage chance that the picked box is Box G vs Box O?

Click on the slider bar then drag to assess.

Box G

%

There is % chance that Box O was picked.
There is % chance that Box G was picked.

Box O

%

You may receive the reward as much as $10. The more accurate your assessment is, the higher the chance you will win the prize.

To help you make the assessment, you may have chances to receive the information generated by the computer in the following way.

The computer will draw 1 ball out of the Picked Box at a time, record its color and put it back into the box. The computer will draw several balls repeatedly using this process. There is an equal chance that the total number of balls drawn will be either 3, 5, 9, or 15.
The computer will then generate 5 types of reports based on the drawn balls. You may be given one of the reports during the Assessment Task.

Here is the demonstration of the reports. (The number of draws in the example will not be the same as you will see in the actual task.)

Example:

If the randomly drawn balls are

{% for i in report_order %} {% if i == 1 %} {% elif i == 2 %} {% elif i == 3 %} {% elif i == 4 %} {% elif i == 5 %} {% endif %} {% endfor %}

Report 1

Report 2

Report 3

Report 4

Report 5

There are more

than

71% are

29% are

There are 3 more

than

5 balls are

2 balls are


1	2	3	4	5	6	7

Report {{forloop.counter}} provides which color is in the majority
Report {{forloop.counter}} provides the ratio of each color to the total number of balls
Report {{forloop.counter}} provides which ball is in the majority and by how many more
Report {{forloop.counter}} provides the count for each color of balls
Report {{forloop.counter}} provides the sequence of the balls in the order drawn

Payoff from Assessment Task

According to your assessment, you will have chance to receive $10.

To determine your payment, the computer will randomly draw 2 numbers. For each draw, all numbers between 0 and 100 (including decimals) are equally likely to be selected. The draws are independent; that is, the first number drawn does not affect the second number at all.

Then your payment will be determined accordingly:

If Box G was picked:
We will look at your assessment: There is X% chance that Box G was picked.
If X is larger than either of the two numbers drawn, you receive $10.
If Box O was picked:
We will look at your assessment: There is Y% chance that Box O was picked.
If Y is larger than either of the two numbers drawn, you receive $10.

While this might look complicated, it is actually very simple. The important thing to remember is that it maximizes your chance of receiving $10 to submit your best assessment of the chance that the Picked Box is Box G vs Box O.

Task

Payoff from Assessment Task

Comprehension Questions