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Purpose of research

The purpose of this research is to study how people make predictions.

What you will do in this research

You will make forecasts about future realizations of a random process on a web-based platform, followed by a few demographics questions. There are 60 rounds, and you will make 2 predictions per round. You may exit the platform at any time without penalty.

Time required

It takes about 50 minutes to complete the study. You are free to spend as much time as you like up to 120 minutes.

Risks

There are no anticipated risks associated with participating in this study.

Compensation

You will receive a base payment of $0.30. You may also receive a bonus payment. When you make serious predictions, the typical bonus payment will be between $6 and $12, but the precise amount will depend on the accuracy of your predictions. However, if you do not take the time to seriously study the experimental instructions and try to make accurate predictions, your performance will be below a critical threshold, and you will not get any bonus payment at all. Your base payment and possible bonus payment will be distributed together within one week via MTurk. Please feel free to contact us with the contact information below or through MTurk if you have any questions about payments. A summary of your payments will be displayed at the end of the study. You may save that page for your records.

Confidentiality

The system allows us to see MTurk Worker IDs and IP addresses. We may use these information for handling payments and to verify data quality, for example that you are in the United States and have not taken our previous surveys. Please make sure to mark your Amazon Profile as private if you do not want it to be found from your MTurk Worker ID. If you communicate with us via email to discuss any issue related to your participation, we will keep your information confidential. All personally identifiable information will not be accessible to anyone outside the study team, and will not be used in our data analysis. Data analysis will be based on de-identified data. Part or all of the de-identified data may be shared with other researchers or be made available publicly for academic replication after publication.

Benefits

Your input will help our research develop a better understanding about how people make forecasts. We appreciate your participation. We hope you will also find the survey questions to be interesting.

Contact

If you have any questions, concerns, or suggestions related to this study, the researcher can be reached at: Joep Lustenhouwer, Alfred-Weber-Institute of Economics, University of Heidelberg, Bergheimer Str. 58, D-69115 Heidelberg, Germany. Email: joep.lustenhouwer@awi.uni-heidelberg.de, Phone: +49 6221 54 2958.

By selecting to continue, you indicate that you are at least 18 years old and you agree to complete this HIT voluntarily.

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