{% extends "global/Page.html" %} {{ block title }} Task 1{{ endblock }} {% block content %}
Introductions

We have constructed a model of a random process that works much like flipping a fair coin. Using this model, we have created sequences of outcomes. An upward movement indicates a “heads” outcome, and a downward movement indicates a “tails” outcome.

Since outcomes of coin flips are unpredictable, they result in a sequence known as a “random walk”. That is, statistical models are unable to predict future outcomes from past ones and, on average, there is no upward or downward trend. Random walk sequences almost always contain intervals of recognizable patterns. However, since these patterns can change greatly at any time, statistical models are still unable to predict future outcomes .

You will see 20 plots we have created as described. Each plot contains realizations for the past 30 periods.The starting values of all plots were normalized to 0.

For each plot, a robot will predict whether the next period’s change of the sequence will be upward or downward. The probability that the robot predicts upward or downward is 50%. But you will not know the robot’s exact prediction.

You just need to click on the ‘next’ button to help the robot move to the next plot. The robot will make its predictions as you move to the next plot. You can move at any time, but the time limit is 5 minutes for this task. The countdown will be displayed in upper right corner of the task page.

The prediction page is shown below:


Notice

  • Robot's predictions will determine your payment in this task. We will compare the robot's predictions with the realization in next Period. You will get $0.1 for each correct prediction of the robot, and there is no penalty for incorrect predictions.
    • {{ if player.treat < 17 }}
  • If this task is randomly drawn to determine your payment, you will know the correct number of robot predictions at the end of the experiment.
    • {{ else }}
  • You will receive no information about the correct number of robot's predictions. If this task is randomly drawn to determine your payment, we will combine this task's payoff with other payments and pay you within one week.
    • {{ endif }}

    Now please answer the following questions: {{ formfields }} Please click next if you are ready to start task.

    {% next_button %} {% endblock %}