In this task, you will face a choice which will potentially determine your payment (plus the guaranteed participation fee of €12).
You will choose between two types of analysts (algorithmic analyst, a machine learning algorithm that has learned to predict stock prices based on historical data, and human analyst, an equity analyst employed by a brokerage house or investment bank) to predict the prices of the 20 stocks for you one month into the future. Your payment is determined by the number of accurate predictions made by the analyst you have chosen. For each accurate prediction your chosen analyst makes, you will gain €0.5. For example, if you pick an analyst who has made accurate predictions for 12 of the 20 stocks, your payment is €6.
At the end of the study, you will be presented with 20 predictions from both types of analysts. Human analysts will be identified by their names and the names of their employers. The algorithmic analyst was created by using a widely-used machine learning algorithm to predict stock prices from company data. Your job is to choose whether to rely on a human analyst or an algorithmic analyst, so your choice will be based on which of the two you think will be more accurate. If you believe the human and algorithmic analyst will make the same number of accurate predictions, you may choose the option of indifference between the two types of analyst. If you choose to be indifferent, both analysts will be evaluated, and then your payment will be the same as if you had chosen the less accurate analyst.
As a reminder, we define an accurate prediction as follows: the analyst makes an accurate prediction if it is within $10 of the actual price in one month’s time; for example, let’s say the actual price ends up being $123, then any prediction in the range [$113, $133] is considered to be an accurate prediction.
The past prices for 20 stocks over a 12-month (1 year) period are presented below.
These are real stock prices from the US stock market.
We standardized the price starting from $100 at time 0 for the sake of comparability.
The two types of analysts will predict the one-month-ahead prices for the 20 stocks for you.