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At the end of the study, one question will be randomly selected from the questions of Task 1. Within this randomly selected question, one choice between Option A and Option B will be randomly selected. You will be presented with both types of analysts’ accuracy rates for the 20 predictions at the end of the study.


Figure 1: Display of Random Draws

Once you click the draws of "Tens (0-9)" and "Ones (0-9)" separately, a number between 0 and 9 will be randomly drawn. Therefore, by clicking the two random draws, you can get any number from 0 to 99. For example, if 5 is randomly selected from the Tens and 0 is randomly selected from the Ones, then you get the number 50.

You will face a p% chance of drawing a number smaller than p because each number between 0 and 99 has a 1% chance of being drawn. Thus, for example, if you choose Option B that “You gain €10 with 65% probability; €0 otherwise,” it is equivalent to “You gain €10 if the number of the two draws is strictly less than 65; €0 otherwise.”

We present two examples and follow-up questions to help you understand the payment scheme better.

Example 1

Example 1 : Suppose the question above is randomly selected to play for real money, and the row highlighted in red is selected. The figure indicates that Option A is chosen for p = 40%. Thus, you would gain €10 if the human analyst’s accuracy rate of 20 predictions falls within the range of more than 20% and less than 100%; €0 otherwise.
Let us assume that it turns out that the human analyst’s accuracy rate of 20 predictions is 45%.
What would be the payment? Please select an answer.

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Example 2

Example 2 : Suppose the question above is randomly selected to play for real money, and the row highlighted in red is selected. The figure indicates that Option B is chosen for p = 25%. Thus, your gain depends on the result of the random draws.
Let us assume that the numbers of the two draws are displayed in Figure 2 below:


Figure 2: Example of Random Draws

What would be the payment? Please select an answer.

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