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Now we would like to ask you some questions about the chance of something happening or not happening. We would like you to give a number from 0 to 100, where ”0” means that you think there is absolutely no chance, and ”100” means that you think the event is absolutely sure to happen.
Consider a bowl with 10 balls in total. Some of the balls may be white and some red. Please click the blue bars to reveal the sliders
1. Suppose this bowl has 10 white balls and no red balls. You will be asked to draw one ball without looking. On a scale from 0 percent to 100 percent, what is the percent chance that the ball you draw is red?
{{ formfield_errors 'numeracy1' }}2. Suppose that the bowl has 7 white balls and 3 red balls. You will be asked to draw one ball without looking. On a scale from 0 percent to 100 percent, what is the percent chance that the ball you draw is white?
{{ formfield_errors 'numeracy2' }}3. Imagine that the weather report tells you that the chance it will rain tomorrow is 70%. Assuming the weather report accurately reports the chance of rain and on a scale from 0 percent to 100 percent, what is the chance it will NOT rain tomorrow?
{{ formfield_errors 'numeracy3' }}4. Imagine that whether it rains in your town and whether it rains in New York City are unrelated. The chance that it will rain in your town tomorrow is 50%. The chance that it will rain in New York City is also 50%. On a scale from 0 percent to 100 percent, what is the chance that it will rain both in your town and in New York City tomorrow?
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