Weather-related Decision-making Experiment
{{ if framing == 'gain' }}
How the Experiment Works
Overview: You'll make decisions related to weather over 30 rounds (plus 3 practice rounds).
How the snow plow scenario works
- You are the manager of a snow removal company serving area businesses
- Each round, you start with 100 tokens
- You decide how many tokens to spend on pre-emptively calling in snow plow contractors (from 0 to 100)
If heavy snow happens:
- Due to your contracts with area businesses, you get back DOUBLE what you spent on snow plow contractors.
- And you keep tokens you didn't spend.
- The maximum tokens possible for the round is 200.
If heavy snow does NOT happen:
- You LOSE what you spent on calling in snow plow contractors because you have to pay them but the area businesses will not compensate you.
- And you keep tokens you didn't spend.
- The maximum tokens possible for the round is 100.
Examples
| You spend |
If heavy snow |
If NO heavy snow |
| 0 tokens |
Held 100 = 100 tokens |
Held 100 = 100 tokens |
| 60 tokens |
Held 40 + get back 120 = 160 tokens |
Held 40 + lose 60 = 40 tokens |
| 100 tokens |
Get back 200 = 200 tokens |
Lose all = 0 tokens |
{{ else }}
How the Experiment Works
Overview: You'll make decisions
related to weather over 30 rounds (plus 3 practice rounds). At random, three of those rounds will determine your payout, so it pays to make good decisions over all rounds.
How the construction site scenario works:
- You are a construction site superintendent.
- Each round, you start with 200 tokens
- Each round, you decide how many tokens to spend on the labor of laying out sandbags and setting up water pumps throughout the site as preparation for heavy rain.
If heavy rain happens:
- You receive the half the amount you spent on protecting the site back in savings from reduced delays.
- You LOSE any tokens you didn't spend on preparation, due to costly delays and water removal.
- The maximum tokens possible for the round is 100.
If heavy rain does NOT happen:
- You DO NOT get money back from any you have spent protecting the site.
- But you keep tokens you didn't spend.
- The maximum tokens possible for the round is 200.
Examples
| You spend |
If heavy rain occurs |
If NO heavy rain occurs |
| 0 tokens |
Lose all = 0 tokens |
Keep 200 tokens at round end. |
| 120 tokens |
120 / 2 tokens returned = 60 tokens |
200 - 120 spent = Keep 80 tokens at round end. |
| 200 tokens |
200 / 2 tokens returned = 100 tokens at round end. |
200 tokens lost = 0 tokens at round end. |
{{ endif }}
{{ if information == 'perfect'}}
Important Information
{{ if framing == 'gain' }}
The probability of heavy snow is exactly 60% in every round.
{{ else }}
The probability of NO heavy rain is exactly 60% in every round.
{{ endif }}
{{ elif information == 'signal' }}
Forecast Available
Before each decision, you'll see a FORECAST:
- The forecast will show either
{{ if framing == 'gain' }}
"HEAVY SNOW LIKELY" or "HEAVY SNOW NOT LIKELY"
{{ else }}
"HEAVY RAIN LIKELY" or "HEAVY RAIN NOT LIKELY"
{{ endif }}
- The forecast has some ability to predict outcomes, but is not perfect.
- You can use this information to help your decision-making.
{{ else }}
About Probabilities
{{ if framing == 'gain' }}
The probability of heavy snow is THE SAME in every round, but is not otherwise known.
{{ else }}
The probability of heavy rain is THE SAME in every round, but is not otherwise known.
{{ endif }}
You'll learn from your experience as you play.
{{ endif }}
Important Details
- Independence: Each round is completely independent - what happens in one round doesn't affect others
- Fresh Start: You always start each round with 100 new tokens
- Practice: You'll start with 3 practice rounds that don't count toward payment.
{{ next_button text="Continue to Comprehension Check" }}