Quick Question
Based on your experience in the first {{ round_num }} rounds:
{{ if framing == 'gain' }}
What do you believe is the probability that heavy snow will occur?
{{ else }}
What do you believe is the probability that heavy rain will occur?
{{ endif }}
Note: This is just to help us understand how people learn. Your answer won't affect your payment; we just want your honest estimate.
{{ formfield 'stated_belief' label="" }}
{{ if framing == 'gain' }}
For example:
• 75 means you think heavy snow is more likely than not
• 50 means you think it is equally likely for heavy snow to fall or not
• 25 means you think NO heavy snow is more likely than heavy snow
You may choose any percentage probability between 0 and 100 that seems right to you.
{{ else }}
For example:
• 75 means you think heavy rain is more likely than not
• 50 means you think it is equally likely for heavy rain to fall or not
• 25 means you think NO heavy rain is more likely than heavy rain
{{ endif }}
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