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Welcome to this experiment!
Thank you for taking part in our experiment. Please read these instructions carefully and completely. Properly understanding the instructions will help you to make better decisions and, hence, to earn more money. If you have any questions, please raise your hand and an experimenter will come to answer your question at your desk. During this experiment, please switch off your mobile phone and please do not communicate with any other participant. All information collected during this experiment will be treated confidentially and anonymously.
Your payoffs in this experiment will be measured in tokens. At the end of the experiment, we will convert the tokens you have earned to cash, and we will pay you in private. For every 15 tokens you earn you will be paid 1 pound in cash. This means that for each 120 tokens you earn you will be paid 8 pounds.
The Experiment:
This experiment will consist of two phases, each featuring a number of rounds. We now explain you the rules of the first phase.
First phase:
In each round in this phase, a prize of 120 tokens will be at stake. The prize will be assigned depending on your choices in the round, that proceeds in two stages:
Stage 1:
You must individually decide whether to bid or not to win an advantage in Stage 2 of the round.
If you do not bid, you do not obtain the advantage.
If you bid, you will obtain the advantage with some probability, that is, in some cases but not always.
Bidding for the advantage costs you 48 tokens regardless of whether you obtain the advantage or not.
Stage 2:
In Stage 2, you can buy tickets to influence your probability of winning the prize of 120 tokens. You can increase your probability by buying more tickets.
The cost of the tickets to you depends on whether you obtained or not the advantage after Stage 1. If you obtained the advantage, buying tickets has no cost; that means all tickets are free to you. If you did not obtain the advantage each ticket costs you one token. That cost must be paid (that is, it will be subtracted from your earnings), whether or not you win the prize.
The number of tickets participants can buy must be an integer between 0 and 120, that is, 0, 1, 2, …, and so on, up to 120.
How the probability that you win the prize is calculated depends on whether you are in the UP or in the DOWN state.
If you have the advantage, you are always in the UP state.
If you do not have the advantage, you will be randomly assigned to the UP or the DOWN state.
If you are in the UP state your probability to win the prize of 120 Tokens is equal to
Prob. you win in UP =
where “Random number” is a randomly chosen number between 0 and 120, that is, any number 0, 1, 2, …, and so on, up to 120, although not necessarily with equal probability. Hence, the larger the “Random number” is, the lower your probability of winning the prize.
If you are in the DOWN state your probability to win the prize of 120 Tokens is equal to
Prob. you win in DOWN =
Put in other words, “Random number” is always 120 if you are in the DOWN state.
Before you decide how many tickets to buy, you will be told whether you are in the UP or the DOWN state (but not the “Random number”). Once you have bought your tickets, a fortune wheel will decide whether you win the prize of 120 Tokens. The fortune wheel is divided into two colors: blue and green. Blue represents your number of tickets and green represents the “Random number”, which remember is always 120 if the state is DOWN. The fraction of Blue on the fortune wheel corresponds exactly with your probability of winning the prize. On top of the fortune wheel, there is an arrow pointing to the middle. The fortune wheel will start to rotate and then stop randomly. If the arrow is in the blue-colored area, you win the prize. If the arrow is in the green-colored area, you do not win prize.
To summarize: your payoff (in tokens) in a round is determined as follows:
| Outcome of Stage 2 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Outcome of Stage 1 | You win the prize | You do not win the prize |
| You bid for the advantage, and you won it | 120 - 48 | - 48 |
| You bid for the advantage, and you did not win it | 120 - 48 - cost of tickets | - 48 - cost of tickets |
| You did not bid for the advantage | 120 - cost of tickets | - cost of tickets |
The procedures:
The experiment consists of two phases, each with 14 identical rounds with no relation to each other. The rules of the second phase will be announced once the first phase is completed.
At the end of the experiment, one round of each phase will be randomly selected to determine your payment. For those two rounds, we will sum up your earnings as described in the table above. The final number of tokens will be converted into cash (15 tokens = 1 pound). This means that the rounds not selected will not be used to calculate your final payment. On top of this payment, you will receive a bonus of 8 pounds. Your payoffs in the two selected rounds will be added to these 8 pounds. If your payoffs in the two selected rounds are negative, these will be subtracted from the 8 pounds bonus. Finally, you will also receive the show-up fee of 2.5 pounds.
Before the experiment starts, we will ask you to answer a few questions on your computer screen that should help clarify the rules of the experiment. At the end of the experiment, we will ask you to answer a few further questions about yourself. Your answers and all your choices throughout the experiment will be completely anonymous.