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As a participant in this challenge, your task is to predict the future values of a key economic indicator. Here's how the game works:
1. Observation Phase: You will be presented with the historical data of the chosen macroeconomic variable, covering 40 previous quarters. Familiarize yourself with the trends and patterns as they will inform your predictions.
2. Forecasting Rounds: The challenge consists of 20 rounds. In each round, you are to predict the value of the macroeconomic variable for the upcoming two quarters.
3. Revelation and Progression: After submitting your forecasts, the actual value for the immediate next quarter will be disclosed. Use this new information to refine your forecasts as you enter the next round.
4. Scoring and Rewards: Your success in the game is measured by the accuracy of your forecasts. Points are awarded based on how close your predictions are to the actual economic outcomes. The better your forecasts, the higher your score!
Remember, economic forecasting requires keen insight into past performance to predict future trends. Good luck, and may your forecasts be accurate!