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    Part 2
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    <p>
        In this part, you will be asked to give your probability judgement for six times in total:
        once at the beginning, and five times after you have received a new piece of information about the stock price.
    </p>
    <p>
        In each round you will receive information in the form of a colored ball being drawn from an urn.
        There are two possible urns, i.e., Urn High and Urn Low. Each urn contains blue and red balls.
        One of the two urns will be chosen based on the stock price on day 240. <b>Urn High will be chosen if
        the stock price on day 240 is higher than 100 points. Urn Low will be chosen if the stock price on day 240
        is lower than 100 points.</b>
    </p>
    <p>
        To help you decide if the price is higher than 100 or lower than 100, you will be given five pieces of information.
        This information will come in the form of a series of five ball draws from the chosen urn which corresponds
        to the stock price on day 240. Urn High contains 5 blue balls and 3 red balls. Urn Low contains 3 blue balls and 5 red balls.
    </p>
    <p>
        After each ball is drawn, you will observe the color of the ball. The drawn ball is then put back into the urn.
        Therefore, the chosen urn will always contain the same eight balls, and for each draw the computer will randomly
        select one of these balls.
    </p>
    <p>
        <img src="{{ static 'instruction_part2.png' }}" width="600px"/><br>
    </p>
    <p>
        <b><u>Decision</u></b><br>
        You will be asked to give probability judgements, expressed in percentage, about the stock price on day 240
        being higher than 100 points (or lower than 100 points). You answer once before receiving any information and
        once after receiving each of the five pieces of information. Therefore, you will make a total of six probability judgements.
    </p>
    <p>
        <b>One of these six probability judgments will be randomly selected to determine whether you will get <u>200 points</u> from this part as follow.</b>
    </p>
    <p>
        To determine whether you will get the points, the computer will draw a random number between 1 and 100.
            <ul>
                <li>If you report a probability that is <b>larger or equal to that random number</b>, you earn 200 points if
                    it is the correct answer or nothing otherwise.</li>
                <li>If you report a probability that is <b>lower than the random number</b>, you earn 200 points with probability equal to that random number.</li>
            </ul>
    </p>
    <p>
        Suppose that you think that it is equally likely that the stock price on day 240 is higher than 100,
        i.e., you report a probability of 50%.
    </p>
        <ul>
            <li>If the computer draws a random number 10,</li>
            <ul style="padding-left: 25px;">
                <li>you get 200 if the price on day 240 is higher than 100, and</li>
                <li>you get 0 if the price on day 240 is lower than 100.</li>
            </ul>
        </ul>
        <ul>
            <li>If the computer draws a random number 90,</li>
            <ul style="padding-left: 25px">
                <li>you get 200 with probability 90%, and</li>
                <li>you get 0 with probability 10%.</li>
            </ul>
        </ul>
    <p>
        The procedure is to ensure that you maximize your chance of winning by reporting your probability judgement
        accurately and truthfully. The intuition is as follows: If you are relatively confident of where the price will
        end up, you should report a high probability for the price on day 240 being higher than 100 so that you are
        more likely to earn the points based on your answer. On the contrary, if you are not confident of where the
        price will end up, you should report a low probability in order to get paid based on the random lottery number
        independently of your answer.
    </p>
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