The main task of this survey is to predict stock price trends. You will go through a series
of twenty individual predictions. Each of these predictions will be displayed on a separate page.
For each prediction we have chosen historical data from an S&P 500 stock (but you will
not know which stock it is, nor what point in time we use for the prediction). You will see the
stock price development of the chosen stock five days prior to the day that you are supposed
to predict. The price development is based on the closing prices on two consecutive trading
days.
Here is an example how that looks:
Day 1: Up
Day 2: Down
Day 3: Down
Day 4: Up
Day 5: Up
In this example, the chosen stock had a higher closing price on day 1 than the previous day.
On day 2, the closing price was lower than on day 1.
On day 3, the closing price was lower than on day 2.
On day 4, the closing price was higher than on day 3.
On day 5, the closing price was higher than on day 4.
Your task is to predict whether the closing price on day 6 goes Up or Down compared to day 5. You will find an interface that asks for your prediction. You can submit your prediction and continue the survey by clicking the Submit prediction button at the bottom of the page.
You will be rewarded for correct predictions. Our algorithm will compare your prediction to the historical data on day 6 and evaluate whether your prediction is correct. For every correct prediction you will earn a bonus of 0.06 GBP. Given that you go through a series of twenty predictions, you can earn a bonus of up to 1.20 GBP. You will learn whether your predictions were correct at the payment summary at the end of the survey.