id,question,choice1,choice2,choice3,solution
1,What will you be asked to predict?,EPS,Exchange rate,Tomorrow's temperature,EPS
2,How many analyst forecasts will you receive for each stock?,1,2,3,2
3,"What is the distribution from which the true EPS, \(T\) is generated?",Normal distribution with mean 0 and variance 1 ,"Normal distribution with mean 1,000 and variance 100","Normal distribution with mean 1,000 and variance 10,000","Normal distribution with mean 1,000 and variance 10,000"
4,What does Analyst 1's forecast \(X_1\) equal?,\(T + \varepsilon_1\),\(T + \varepsilon_1 - \varepsilon_2\),\(T + \varepsilon_1 + \varepsilon_2\),\(T + \varepsilon_1\)
5,What does Analyst 2's forecast \(X_2\) equal when \(\alpha=0\)?,\(T + \varepsilon_1\),\(T + \varepsilon_2\),\(T + \varepsilon_1 + \varepsilon_2\),\(T + \varepsilon_2\)
6,What does Analyst 2's forecast \(X_2\) equal when \(\alpha=0.5\)?,\(0.5 \times T+ \varepsilon_2\),\(0.5 \times T + 0.5 \times X_1 + \varepsilon_2\),\(0.5 \times X_1 + \varepsilon_2\),\(0.5 \times T + 0.5 \times X_1 + \varepsilon_2\)
7,"Suppose \(T\) is drawn from a normal distribution with mean 1,000 and variance 10,000. Without any additional information, what should be your prediction for the true value of \(T\)?",500,"1,000","1,500","1,000"
8,"Again, \(T\) is drawn from a normal distribution with mean 1,000 and variance 10,000. Now suppose you see a forecast for \(T\), which equals \(T\) plus an error term that is drawn from a normal distribution with mean of 0 and variance of 10,000. Suppose this forecast equals 1,272. What should be your prediction for the true value of \(T\)?","1,272","1,000","between 1,000 and 1,272","between 1,000 and 1,272"