Stock {{ player.round_number }}'s true EPS is revealed in the table below. You can compare it with your
prediction
and the analysts' forecasts.
Recall that for this stock, the forecasts were generated as follows:
\(X_1 = T + \varepsilon_1\) where \(\varepsilon_1\)'s variance is {{ e1_var }}
{{ if alpha == 0 }}
\(X_2 = T + \varepsilon_2\)
{{ else }}
\(X_2 = {{ alpha }} \, X_1 + {{ one_minus_alpha }} \, T + \varepsilon_2\)
{{ endif }}
where \(\varepsilon_2\)'s variance is {{ e2_var }}.
| \(T\): Stock {{player.round_number }}'s true EPS | {{ player.t }} |
| \(X_1\): Analyst 1's forecast of \(T\) | {{ player.x1 }} |
| \(X_2\): Analyst 2's forecast of \(T\) | {{ player.x2 }} |
| \(P\): Your prediction of \(T\) | {{ player.p }} |
| Your probability of earning a $3 reward | {{ player.win_prob }} |
The probability that you would earn a $3 reward if it were a paid round is also shown in the table. If you wish to see exactly how we calculated this probability, click on the "Scheme" button below. To see the experimental instructions again, click on the "Instructions" button. Also, you can review the statistical concepts by clicking on the "Statistical Concepts" button.