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Reward for the Guessing task
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In this task, your reward will be determined based on the accuracy of your guess regarding the
proportion of blue balls in the urn (B%).
{% if player.initial == 0 %}
Out of the four rounds (two in part 1 and two in part 2), one will be randomly selected to determine your reward for this task.
For the selected round, either your initial guess (the one you make after observing the balls)
or your final guess (after observing the other participant's guess) will be randomly chosen for rewards with equal chance.
The reward for this task is 200 points.
If your guess is perfect you will receive the reward with certainty.
As your guess deviates further away from B%, the probability of receiving the reward will decrease.
The payoff scheme has been designed to encourage you to report your true belief,
as it is the best option for maximizing your potential reward.
The exchange rate for this survey is 100 points = US 1.00.
{% else %}
Out of the four rounds (two in part 1 and two in part 2), one will be randomly selected to determine your reward for this task.
The reward for this task is 200 points.
If your guess is perfect you will receive the reward with certainty.
As your guess deviates further away from B%, the probability of receiving the reward will decrease.
The payoff scheme has been designed to encourage you to report your true belief,
as it is the best option for maximizing your potential reward.
The exchange rate for this survey is 100 points = US 1.00.
{% endif %}
Your reward for the selected round will be equal to:
200 points if \( (B-b)^2 \leq k \)
0 points if \( (B-b)^2 > k \)
where,
B is the proportion of blue balls in the urn.
b is your estimation about B.
k is a number randomly selected by the computer at the end of the session from a uniform distribution between 0 and 200.