{% extends "global/Page.html" %} {% load otree static %} {% block title %} Instructions For The Investment Game {% endblock %} {% block content %} Phase 1: The Investment Game

Example 1:

Suppose Investment A has a 70% probability of a positive return (p = 0.70), and a return factor of 2 (r = 2).

You choose to invest 8 tokens in Investment A, leaving 2 tokens uninvested.

The computer will draw a random number from 0 to 1. If that random number is between 0 and 0.7 ( < p), your investment will have a positive return. Your 8 token investment will be multiplied by 2 (r), leaving you with 16 tokens from your investment that will be returned to your private account along with the 2 tokens that you chose not to invest.

If the random number is between 0.7 and 1(> p), your investment will return 0. Your 8 token investment will be multiplied by 0, leaving you with 0 tokens from your investment along with the 2 tokens that you chose not to invest. Your private account will now hold 2 tokens before you start the round.

Example 2:

Investment A has a 60% probability of a positive return, and a return factor of 2.

Investment B has an 80% probability of a positive return, and a return factor of 1.5.

Investment C has a 40% probability of a positive return, and a return factor of 1.1.

You invest 4 tokens in A, 4 tokens in B, and 2 tokens in C.

The random number drawn for A is 0.9, so you earn zero from A.

The random number drawn for B is 0.7, so you earn a positive return from B.

The random number drawn for C is 0.3, so you earn a positive return from C.

The results from your investment this round will add (4 x 0) + (4 x 1.5) + (2 x 1.1) = 8.2 tokens back to your private account.

Determining p and r:

You will not be told the probability, p, or the return factor, r, for any of the investments.

Instead, you will be presented with five pairs of simultaneous equations with two unknown variables: p and r.

p represents the probability for the relevant portfolio. r represents the return factor.

You will need to solve the pairs of simultaneous equations to obtain the probability p and the return factor r for each investments in order to decide which portfolio would be the best one to choose.

Quiz 1:

You will receive 2 tokens for each complete correct answer to the following questions, paid separately at the end of the experiment

Portfolio A has p = 0.4 and r = 3. You invest 10 tokens in Portfolio A and nothing in B or C. The random number drawn by the computer is 0.3. Your earnings for this round are: {{ formfield 'answer_1' }}
Portfolio A has p = 0.4 and r = 3. You invest 10 tokens in Portfolio A and nothing in B or C. The random number drawn by the computer is 0.8. Your earnings for this round are: {{ formfield 'answer_2' }}
Portfolio A has p = 0.4 and r = 3. Portfolio B has p = 0.6 and r = 2. You invest 4 tokens in Portfolio A, 6 tokens in Portfolio B, and nothing in C. The random number drawn by the computer for A is 0.3, and for B it is 0.4. Your earnings for this round are: {{ formfield 'answer_3' }}
Portfolio A has p = 0.4 and r = 3. Portfolio B has p = 0.6 and r = 2. You invest 4 tokens in Portfolio A, 6 tokens in Portfolio B, and nothing in C. The random number drawn by the computer for A is 0.8, and for B it is 0.4. Your earnings for this round are: {{ formfield 'answer_4' }}
Portfolio A has p = 0.9 and r = 4. Portfolio B has p = 0.2 and r = 1.2. The portfolio that is more likely to give you a higher return on your investment is (case-senstive): {{ formfield 'answer_5' }}
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