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Instructions For The Investment Game
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Phase 1: The Investment Game
You will have 10 tokens to invest in any of five
available investments: A, B, C, D, or E.
You may invest some, all, or none of the 10 tokens.
You may invest all your earnings in one of them or
divide them between two, three, four,
or all five of the investments in any way you like.
Remember to enter whole numbers and ensure that the
total across all portfolios is less than or equal to 10.
Enter 0 if you do not wish to invest in a given portfolio.
Investments may have a positive or zero return.
Any tokens left uninvested will be held left untouched until the end of the round,
without any possibility of gain or risk of loss,
and will then be returned to your private account.
Each investment is defined by two characteristics:
The probability of a positive return, p.
This is the probability that investments in it will grow.
Its return factor, r.
This is the amount investments in the portfolio
will be multiplied by if the portfolio has a positive return.
Example 1:
Suppose Investment A has a 70% probability of a positive return (p = 0.70),
and a return factor of 2 (r = 2).
You choose to invest 8 tokens in Investment A, leaving 2 tokens uninvested.
The computer will draw a random number from 0 to 1.
If that random number is between 0 and 0.7 ( < p),
your investment will have a positive return.
Your 8 token investment will be multiplied by 2 (r),
leaving you with 16 tokens from your investment
that will be returned to your private account
along with the 2 tokens that you chose not to invest.
If the random number is between 0.7 and 1(> p), your investment will return 0.
Your 8 token investment will be multiplied by 0,
leaving you with 0 tokens from your investment
along with the 2 tokens that you chose not to invest.
Your private account will now hold 2 tokens before you start the round.
Example 2:
Investment A has a 60% probability of a positive return, and a return factor of 2.
Investment B has an 80% probability of a positive return, and a return factor of 1.5.
Investment C has a 40% probability of a positive return, and a return factor of 1.1.
You invest 4 tokens in A, 4 tokens in B, and 2 tokens in C.
The random number drawn for A is 0.9, so you earn zero from A.
The random number drawn for B is 0.7, so you earn a positive return from B.
The random number drawn for C is 0.3, so you earn a positive return from C.
The results from your investment this round will add
(4 x 0) + (4 x 1.5) + (2 x 1.1) = 8.2 tokens back to your private account.
Determining p and r:
You will not be told the probability, p, or the return factor, r,
for any of the investments.
Instead, you will be presented with five pairs of simultaneous
equations with two unknown variables: p and r.
p represents the probability for the relevant portfolio.
r represents the return factor.
You will need to solve the pairs of simultaneous equations to obtain
the probability p and the return factor r for each investments in order to
decide which portfolio would be the best one to choose.
Quiz 1:
You will receive 2 tokens for
each complete correct answer to the following questions,
paid separately at the end of the experiment
Portfolio A has p = 0.4 and r = 3. You invest 10 tokens in Portfolio A and nothing in B or C.
The random number drawn by the computer is 0.3.
Your earnings for this round are: {{ formfield 'answer_1' }}
Portfolio A has p = 0.4 and r = 3. You invest 10 tokens in Portfolio A and nothing in B or C.
The random number drawn by the computer is 0.8.
Your earnings for this round are: {{ formfield 'answer_2' }}
Portfolio A has p = 0.4 and r = 3. Portfolio B has p = 0.6 and r = 2.
You invest 4 tokens in Portfolio A, 6 tokens in Portfolio B, and nothing in C.
The random number drawn by the computer for A is 0.3, and for B it is 0.4.
Your earnings for this round are: {{ formfield 'answer_3' }}
Portfolio A has p = 0.4 and r = 3. Portfolio B has p = 0.6 and r = 2.
You invest 4 tokens in Portfolio A, 6 tokens in Portfolio B, and nothing in C.
The random number drawn by the computer for A is 0.8, and for B it is 0.4.
Your earnings for this round are: {{ formfield 'answer_4' }}
Portfolio A has p = 0.9 and r = 4. Portfolio B has p = 0.2 and r = 1.2.
The portfolio that is more likely to give you a higher return
on your investment is (case-senstive): {{ formfield 'answer_5' }}
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