{{ block title }}How the Trials Work{{ endblock }} {{ block content }}

Now that you have seen how the Plinko board works, here are the details of the experiment.

The Board

In the demo, you used a {{ R_DEMO }}-row board. The actual trials use a longer {{ R }}-row board, so the balls will scatter more widely. The board has columns numbered from 0 to 1000. On each trial, the drop position is chosen uniformly at random from these columns, so every position from 0 to 1000 is equally likely. The drop position range is much wider than what you saw in the demo.

Signals

As you saw in the demo, when multiple balls are dropped from the same position, their average landing position is a better estimate of the drop position. More balls means more precision.

In each trial, you will receive two signals about the same unknown drop position. Each signal is the average landing position of some number of balls, rounded to the nearest integer. You will not see the drop position, the path of the balls, or where individual balls landed.

Step 1: You will see the average landing position of some number of balls dropped from the unknown position. This is the first signal.

Step 2: You will see the average landing position of another set of balls dropped from the same position. This is the second signal.

Your job is to combine both signals to estimate the drop position.

Tasks and Trials

You will complete {{ NUM_ROUNDS }} trials across two tasks.

Task 1 (4 trials): You will be told exactly how many balls were used for each signal.

Task 2 (4 trials): You will be told how many balls were used for the first signal, but not the second.

Independence: Each trial is completely independent. The drop position is drawn fresh each trial. The result of one trial tells you nothing about the next.

Scoring

Each trial is worth up to {{ PER_TRIAL }} points, with a penalty for estimation error.

Points per trial = {{ PER_TRIAL }} − (error)2 / 4

Your error is the distance in columns between your estimate and the true drop position.

Examples:
Off by 10 columns: {{ PER_TRIAL }} − 25 = 75 points
Off by 20 columns or more: 0 points

Your total score is the sum of points earned across all trials.

When you are ready, click Next to begin Task 1.

{{ next_button }} {{ endblock }}