{% load otree %}




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            <h4><strong>Instructions for Experiment</strong></h4>
            <p>
                During the experiment, you will be asked to make forecasting judgments and answer a questionnaire.
                Participation will take approximately 15 minutes. Upon completion, you will be paid a participation fee of 0.5 USD plus a bonus (average bonus = 0.5 USD)
                based on your forecasting performance during the experiment.
                <strong> Please do not use cell phones, calculators, other portable electronic devices, and pen and papers at any time. </strong>
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            <h4><strong>Description of the Experiment</strong></h4>
            <p>
                Your task is to <strong> make demand forecasts using your judgment only </strong>, i.e., enter the best estimates of what the demand in the next period looks like.
                Please do not use calculators or pen and papers to make your forecasts. You will be provided with a history of demand realizations for the most recent 15 periods and you will make demand forecasts for the next 15 periods.
                <br><br>
                Your forecasting performance is measured by the absolute forecast error you make in each period, i.e., the absolute difference between your forecast and the actual demand.
                Your goal is to minimize the absolute forecast error totaled over all 15 decision periods.
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            <h6 align="center"><strong> Forecast Error = Actual Demand - Forecast</strong> </h6>
            <h6 align="center"><strong> Absolute Forecast Error = |Actual Demand - Forecast| </strong> </h6>
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            <h4><strong>Payoffs</strong> </h4>

            <p>
                The bonus payment you will receive at the end of the experiment depends on your average forecasting performance over 15 decision periods measured by the absolute forecast error:
            </p>

            <h6 align="center"><strong>Bonus payment = 1.5 – 0.025 x Average Absolute Forecast Error (USD)</strong></h6>
            <br>
            <p>
                The lower the forecast error, the higher the bonus payment. Your total cash earning in this HIT will be $0.5 participation fee plus this bonus payment.
                Please note that you will only receive $0.5 participation fee if your forecasting performance is low. On the other hand, you can receive bonus up to $1.05 in addition to the participation fee if your forecasting performance is high.
                Also,<strong> note that you will not receive cash earnings unless you complete all sequences in this HIT, including questionnaire that comes after the forecasting experiment.
                On the last page, you will be given a completion code. Please copy the completion code and paste it to Mechanical Turk page to receive your payment.</strong>
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