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Instructions

In this part of the experiment, you will receive 4 signals that give you insight into whether your performance places you in the top or bottom half of the distribution of scores. After each signal, you will be asked to reassess the probability that your performance ranks in the top half. Let’s explain how the signals you receive are determined.

  • Each signal you receive is 70% accurate. This means:

    • If your Raven test score places you in the top half of the distribution of scores, there is a 70% chance you will correctly receive a "top" signal and a 30% chance you will receive an incorrect "bottom" signal.
    • If your Raven test score places in the bottom half of the distribution of scores, the odds are reversed. There is a 70% chance you'll correctly receive a "bottom" signal and a 30% chance you will receive an incorrect "top" signal.

    Please note: Details about your actual performance (whether top or bottom half) and the accuracy level of the signals (informative or noise) you receive will not be disclosed at any stage of the experiment.

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