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Payment Instructions for Probability Estimation Tasks

You will be participating in two tasks, each consisting of five estimation questions, making a total of ten questions. Your objective is to accurately estimate the probability of specified events occurring. Upon completion, one of these ten questions will be randomly chosen to determine your compensation. Thus, it's crucial to thoughtfully consider each response, as any one of them might influence your earnings. The reward for the two estimation tasks could either be $5 or $0, depending on your performance.

Although it might seem complex, the underlying principle is straightforward: Reporting your genuine belief about the likelihood of each event maximizes your chance of earning the $5 reward.

If the above explanation makes sense to you, detailed understanding of the payment mechanism is not necessary. Feel free to proceed by clicking the "Proceed" button below. However, we provide further details below and an illustrative example on the next page for those interested in the payment mechanics.

After you submit your probability estimate for each question, a random number between 0 and 100 will be generated for each of the ten questions. Your reward chance is determined by how this number compares with your probability estimate.

On the next page, you will find an example that helps to illustrate how this payment mechanism works. The example will demonstrate why reporting your true beliefs maximizes your expected rewards.

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