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In this part of the experiment, you will receive 4 signals that give you insight into whether your performance places you in the top or bottom half of the distribution of scores. After each signal, you will be asked to reassess the probability that your performance ranks in the top half. Let’s explain how the signals you receive are determined.
Imagine a box containing exactly 100 cards, each labeled either as "Informative" or "Noise." The number of "Informative" and "Noise" cards in the box will not be disclosed to you.
For each signal, a card is randomly drawn from this box, and the type of signal you'll receive is based on the label of the drawn card. After delivering the signal to you, the card is returned to the box, ensuring that each draw is independent and the chances to receive each card remain constant throughout the experiment.
The labels on the cards have the following meanings:
Important: In this experiment, you will never learn the actual ratio of "Informative" to "Noise" cards in the box.
Please note: Details about your actual performance (whether top or bottom half) and the accuracy level of the signals (informative or noise) you receive will not be disclosed at any stage of the experiment.