Current Forecast Scenario: Blizzard conditions for many Tuesday, with between one and two feet of snow expected across a wide swath of N.J.

Analysis: Snow, and a lot of it, seems all but certain in northern and central New Jersey. But a westward trend in the forecasted track of the storm could mean more mixing issues east of the New Jersey Turnpike, which could have a dramatic effect on snowfall totals. The Bust-O-Meter's confidence rating takes a big hit as a result.

Last Updated: 4:45 p.m. March 13. Remember: A forecast bust can be both more or less snow than what is predicted