Odds update every minute | Last updated: 4:40PM EDT on Sep 30, 2023

Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...
DEM Nomination 2024Democratic nominee for the Presidential election to be held on Nov 5 2024

$6,059,711 bet so far
Biden details
Markets &nbsp&nbsp&nbsp Range (Bid-Ask) &nbsp&nbsp&nbsp Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧 66.2-66.7% $4,725,267
PredictIt 🇺🇸 66.3-67.3% $855,316
Smarkets 🇬🇧 66.7-69.4% $479,128

66.6%

-0.1%
Newsom details
Markets &nbsp&nbsp&nbsp Range (Bid-Ask) &nbsp&nbsp&nbsp Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧 11.4-12.8% $4,725,267
PredictIt 🇺🇸 21.5-22.4% $855,316
Smarkets 🇬🇧 11.1-12.2% $479,128

13.4%

1.1%
Harris details
Markets &nbsp&nbsp&nbsp Range (Bid-Ask) &nbsp&nbsp&nbsp Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧 5.3-5.9% $4,725,267
PredictIt 🇺🇸 6.8-7.8% $855,316
Smarkets 🇬🇧 5.1-7.1% $479,128

5.9%

-0.3%
Clinton details
Markets &nbsp&nbsp&nbsp Range (Bid-Ask) &nbsp&nbsp&nbsp Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧 1.5-2.0% $4,725,267
PredictIt 🇺🇸 2.0-2.9% $855,316
Smarkets 🇬🇧 1.3-2.2% $479,128

1.9%

0.1%
Warren details
Markets &nbsp&nbsp&nbsp Range (Bid-Ask) &nbsp&nbsp&nbsp Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧 1.5-2.5% $4,725,267
PredictIt 🇺🇸 0.0-1.0% $855,316
Smarkets 🇬🇧 1.3-2.6% $479,128

1.7%

-0.1%
Kennedy details
Markets &nbsp&nbsp&nbsp Range (Bid-Ask) &nbsp&nbsp&nbsp Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧 0.3-1.7% $4,725,267
Smarkets 🇬🇧 0.5-1.5% $479,128

1.0%

-0.7%
Buttigieg details
Markets &nbsp&nbsp&nbsp Range (Bid-Ask) &nbsp&nbsp&nbsp Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧 0.2-0.5% $4,725,267
PredictIt 🇺🇸 1.0-2.0% $855,316
Smarkets 🇬🇧 0.3-0.6% $479,128

0.5%

+0.0%
Sanders details
Markets &nbsp&nbsp&nbsp Range (Bid-Ask) &nbsp&nbsp&nbsp Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧 0.1-1.0% $4,725,267
PredictIt 🇺🇸 0.0-1.0% $855,316
Smarkets 🇬🇧 0.1-1.0% $479,128

0.5%

-0.3%
Cuomo details
Markets &nbsp&nbsp&nbsp Range (Bid-Ask) &nbsp&nbsp&nbsp Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧 0.1-0.2% $4,725,267
Smarkets 🇬🇧 0.1-0.4% $479,128

0.2%

-0.0%
Cortez details
Markets &nbsp&nbsp&nbsp Range (Bid-Ask) &nbsp&nbsp&nbsp Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧 0.0-0.1% $4,725,267
PredictIt 🇺🇸 0.0-1.0% $855,316
Smarkets 🇬🇧 0.0-0.3% $479,128

0.1%

+0.0%

8.3%
GOP Nomination 2024GOP Nominee for the Presidential election to be held on Nov 5 2024

$6,202,750 bet so far
Trump details
Markets &nbsp&nbsp&nbsp Range (Bid-Ask) &nbsp&nbsp&nbsp Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧 74.6-75.2% $4,278,070
PredictIt 🇺🇸 70.5-71.4% $1,311,946
Smarkets 🇬🇧 77.4-80.5% $612,734

74.5%

1.4%
DeSantis details
Markets &nbsp&nbsp&nbsp Range (Bid-Ask) &nbsp&nbsp&nbsp Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧 7.4-9.5% $4,278,070
PredictIt 🇺🇸 7.7-8.7% $1,311,946
Smarkets 🇬🇧 6.7-9.5% $612,734

8.4%

-0.1%
Haley details
Markets &nbsp&nbsp&nbsp Range (Bid-Ask) &nbsp&nbsp&nbsp Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧 4.3-5.6% $4,278,070
PredictIt 🇺🇸 8.7-9.7% $1,311,946
Smarkets 🇬🇧 4.8-6.0% $612,734

5.9%

-0.2%
Ramaswamy details
Markets &nbsp&nbsp&nbsp Range (Bid-Ask) &nbsp&nbsp&nbsp Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧 2.5-3.7% $4,278,070
PredictIt 🇺🇸 5.8-6.8% $1,311,946
Smarkets 🇬🇧 2.4-4.2% $612,734

3.8%

-0.3%
Christie details
Markets &nbsp&nbsp&nbsp Range (Bid-Ask) &nbsp&nbsp&nbsp Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧 0.3-1.1% $4,278,070
PredictIt 🇺🇸 1.9-2.9% $1,311,946
Smarkets 🇬🇧 0.4-0.9% $612,734

1.1%

-0.0%
TimScott details
Markets &nbsp&nbsp&nbsp Range (Bid-Ask) &nbsp&nbsp&nbsp Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧 0.1-1.1% $4,278,070
PredictIt 🇺🇸 1.0-1.9% $1,311,946
Smarkets 🇬🇧 0.7-1.2% $612,734

0.8%

-0.0%
Carlson details
Markets &nbsp&nbsp&nbsp Range (Bid-Ask) &nbsp&nbsp&nbsp Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧 0.5-1.4% $4,278,070
PredictIt 🇺🇸 0.0-1.0% $1,311,946
Smarkets 🇬🇧 0.4-1.0% $612,734

0.7%

-0.0%
Pence details
Markets &nbsp&nbsp&nbsp Range (Bid-Ask) &nbsp&nbsp&nbsp Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧 0.1-0.8% $4,278,070
PredictIt 🇺🇸 1.0-1.9% $1,311,946
Smarkets 🇬🇧 0.3-0.6% $612,734

0.7%

+0.0%
Pompeo details
Markets &nbsp&nbsp&nbsp Range (Bid-Ask) &nbsp&nbsp&nbsp Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧 0.0-1.4% $4,278,070
PredictIt 🇺🇸 0.0-1.0% $1,311,946
Smarkets 🇬🇧 0.0-0.3% $612,734

0.5%

+0.0%
Cotton details
Markets &nbsp&nbsp&nbsp Range (Bid-Ask) &nbsp&nbsp&nbsp Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧 0.0-1.3% $4,278,070
PredictIt 🇺🇸 0.0-1.0% $1,311,946
Smarkets 🇬🇧 0.0-0.1% $612,734

0.4%

-0.0%

3.3%
US Presidency 2024Winner of Presidential election held on Nov 5 2024

$8,932,318 bet so far
Trump details
Markets &nbsp&nbsp&nbsp Range (Bid-Ask) &nbsp&nbsp&nbsp Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧 35.0-35.5% $6,996,588
Smarkets 🇬🇧 34.3-35.5% $1,782,392
PredictIt 🇺🇸 37.0-38.0% $153,338

35.2%

-0.1%
Biden details
Markets &nbsp&nbsp&nbsp Range (Bid-Ask) &nbsp&nbsp&nbsp Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧 29.9-30.8% $6,996,588
Smarkets 🇬🇧 33.6-34.5% $1,782,392
PredictIt 🇺🇸 42.0-43.0% $153,338

31.3%

-0.5%
Newsom details
Markets &nbsp&nbsp&nbsp Range (Bid-Ask) &nbsp&nbsp&nbsp Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧 6.7-7.1% $6,996,588
Smarkets 🇬🇧 6.1-8.0% $1,782,392

6.9%

-0.5%
Kennedy details
Markets &nbsp&nbsp&nbsp Range (Bid-Ask) &nbsp&nbsp&nbsp Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧 4.8-5.1% $6,996,588
Smarkets 🇬🇧 2.5-5.1% $1,782,392

4.7%

0.3%
Obama details
Markets &nbsp&nbsp&nbsp Range (Bid-Ask) &nbsp&nbsp&nbsp Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧 4.3-4.5% $6,996,588
Smarkets 🇬🇧 3.9-5.0% $1,782,392

4.4%

0.2%
Haley details
Markets &nbsp&nbsp&nbsp Range (Bid-Ask) &nbsp&nbsp&nbsp Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧 3.1-3.6% $6,996,588
Smarkets 🇬🇧 2.6-3.9% $1,782,392

3.3%

0.1%
DeSantis details
Markets &nbsp&nbsp&nbsp Range (Bid-Ask) &nbsp&nbsp&nbsp Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧 3.1-3.3% $6,996,588
Smarkets 🇬🇧 3.3-3.7% $1,782,392
PredictIt 🇺🇸 5.0-6.0% $153,338

3.3%

-0.2%
Harris details
Markets &nbsp&nbsp&nbsp Range (Bid-Ask) &nbsp&nbsp&nbsp Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧 2.2-2.5% $6,996,588
Smarkets 🇬🇧 2.3-2.9% $1,782,392
PredictIt 🇺🇸 4.0-5.0% $153,338

2.4%

-0.2%
Ramaswamy details
Markets &nbsp&nbsp&nbsp Range (Bid-Ask) &nbsp&nbsp&nbsp Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧 2.0-2.4% $6,996,588
Smarkets 🇬🇧 1.7-2.8% $1,782,392

2.2%

+0.0%
Warren details
Markets &nbsp&nbsp&nbsp Range (Bid-Ask) &nbsp&nbsp&nbsp Total $ Bet
Betfair 🇬🇧 1.3-1.7% $6,996,588
Smarkets 🇬🇧 1.2-1.7% $1,782,392

1.5%

0.1%

4.7%

Books we like:
"Give Me A Break"
By John Stossel
"Signal and the Noise"
By Nate Silver
"The Scout Mindset"
By Julia Galef
"Radical"
By Maajid Nawaz
"In Order To Live"
By Yeonmi Park

About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minute

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