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Sunday

1. I will be participating in two events tomorrow on reconciliation in Afghanistan. I am not really a specialist on the subject as it pertains to Afghanistan when compared with others, but I will discuss reconciliation efforts in terms of civil wars in general and will offer comment on how operations in Afghanistan may or may not be setting the conditions for what we have come to expect based on historical experience. The first event, hosted by the Institute for Inclusive Security, will be held at the National Press Club and will feature me along with David Kilcullen, Rangina Hamidi, and Wazhma Frogh Mohammad Yonus. The great Elizabeth Rubin will moderate. Details here (.pdf). (Also, the event will be televised on PBS at some point.)

The second event will be at the U.S. Institute of Peace. Hamish Nixon and Andrew Wilder asked me to participate in an event with Ali Jalali, Michael Semple, Bill Taylor, Ashley Tellis and other smart people. Details here. (I suspect we'll spend much time talking about Hamish's new paper, which I read last week while attending a conference with both Andrew and Hamish.)

2. There was an article in the Washington Post today about a new strategy in Afghanistan. Here are my two cents: The so-called "Biden CT option" for Afghanistan was a really bad idea in the fall of 2009 but may be a good option, as I and others have argued, once we have bought enough time and space to build up effective Afghan security forces that allow us to fight a counterinsurgency campaign in Afghanistan by, with and through the Afghans rather than with costly and large deployments of U.S. general purpose forces. The debate, as I see it, surround whether or not we have suffiently set the conditions to fight this kind of lower-cost counterinsurgency campaign. (And this debate, of course, only applies if no progress has been made on reconciliation.) The military, based on the remarks of Sec. Gates and LTG Rodriguez, among others, feels the Afghan security forces need more time and space to develop. In the end, I do not see a way to transition in Afghanistan much faster or much slower than the timeline LTG Barno and I came up with, but if you've got other ideas, knock yourself out.

3. Chaning gears, if the Libyan rebels seize control of the road connecting Tripoli with Tunisia, that's a huge and strategically important victory. I really think the administration has been terribly sloppy in its own management of this conflict, but the rebel gains should be cheered nonetheless.

Afghanistan, Libya

26 comments

Is it possible to have

Is it possible to have reconciliation in Afghanistan without having reconciliation with Pakistan? Is it possible to have a realistic discussion of reconciliation without an honest discussion of whose tool the Afghan government will be? Have the last 9 years simply been a case of two boys who can't share the same toy? If the Afghan government was Pakistan's tool, would they still need the Taliban? Inquiring minds want to know.

"The poor quality and

"The poor quality and predatory behavior of the Afghan government is almost universally ac-
knowledged as a driver of the conflict, and a core issue that a peace process must confront."

How do high level peace talks between Taliban leaders and GIRoA elites address this?

"build up effective Afghan

"build up effective Afghan security forces"

How long will that take?

ADTS

I have the uncomfortable

I have the uncomfortable feeling that there are some people in the national security community who convinced themselves two years ago that an Afghan war policy option supported by an elected civilian official none of them felt personally or culturally in tune with was a bad idea. Everything that has followed may be a consequence of that.

Just for the record, may we assume that the answer to the question, how long before we can fight "...a counterinsurgency campaign in Afghanistan by, with and through the Afghans" is, at this moment, utterly unknown to Andrew Exum? That he has only a vague conception that the soundness of the Afghan government -- outside the security services, the current project of the American military command -- might have some effect on the timetable? And that "reconciliation" is in Afghanistan, as it was in Iraq, a kind of chimera with which Americans beguile themselves while time drags on and the "smart people" hold really interesting events in Washington?

"I have the uncomfortable

"I have the uncomfortable feeling that there are some people in the national security community who convinced themselves two years ago that an Afghan war policy option supported by an elected civilian official none of them felt personally or culturally in tune with was a bad idea. Everything that has followed may be a consequence of that."

What does this mean?

Reconciliation, LOL. What

Reconciliation, LOL.

What kind of "reconciliation" did our South Vietnamese and Cambodian allies get after we pulled the plug on them? That's what our Afghan friends can look forward to at the hand of the Taliban when they take over. "Reconciliation" will come from the barrel of an AK-47.

Why is it that only former right-wing regimes get examined under the "Truth and Reconciliation" microscope? One might imagine that Left-wing regimes don't commit crimes, or something. When the Nazis fall, we spend the next 65+ years hunting down "criminals", and no doddering old SS-Unterscharführer is too insignificant to be put on trial. When the Soviets fall, forgive and forget is the rule, and we can't have any "witch hunts", oh my word no. How many Gulag guards and NKVD officers have been put on trial? Anyone? Bueller?

What does this mean? Zathras

What does this mean?

Zathras can correct me if I'm wrong, but I suspect he was addressing the well-known tendency of many "serious" people to mock Vice President Biden's ideas regardless of whatever merit they may have. In other words, Exum is in that crowd that would rather score points off what they view as an easy target for derision rather than subject such ideas to sober assessment.

Given what most everyone now sees is the truth about COIN, Biden doesn't look all that bad.

Bullseye.

Bullseye.

Andrew, What do you make of

Andrew,
What do you make of the Thomas Barnett critique, that we haven't regionalized the solution, when the other local powers have the incentive (outside of Pakistan) to see that Afghanistan be at least reasonably stable? The incentives being that Afghanistan can be the land-based pipeline for Gulf energy to get to China/India, and also that Iran, Russia, China, and India all have no interest in seeing Sunni Islamists off the leash. Or is a project of that scale too long term for our election cycles...

"Bullseye." While I'm

"Bullseye."

While I'm sympathetic to the implicit argument, I think you're confusing the independent and dependent variables.

They mocked Biden because they drunk the COIN and Establishment kool-aid on its own supposed merits, not because it was Biden who was pushing the alternative. Sure they won't admit he was right now, but they won't do that for anyone else who saw the writing on the wall, either.

If Biden had been backing COIN we would have been hearing about his foreign policy brilliance, just like we did during the campaign.

That should be: about his

That should be:

about his SUPPOSED foreign policy brilliance

Truthfully, nothing about Biden is brilliant. Part of the problem is that even his supposedly radical alternative was really just COIN light, but called counterterrorism.

"Truthfully, nothing about

"Truthfully, nothing about Biden is brilliant."

Biden is vice president and you're not.

"Biden is vice president and

"Biden is vice president and you're not."

Hey, so getting elected makes you brilliant? If that's the case, then Dubya must be brilliant, indeed, even more brilliant than Biden, as he was elected POTUS not VPOTUS.

What changed so dramatically

What changed so dramatically that the ct option was such a bad idea in 09 but a year and a half later it's a good idea and something we should consider? I'm obviously not on the ground, and haven't been, but it seems like the fighting in Helmand and Kandahar hasn't really been of the coin variety anyway. I remember reading a quote from an officer in the Marine dark horse bn who said there was so much fighting it was "a great place to be a Marine infantryman" and that the Marines were happy not to have to do the coin stuff, they could just fight for 7 months. The 1-320 is doing (or was, I think they left), coin but only after the 'battle of Bakersfield' and bombing some villages to rubble from when they arrived until December/January. Plus it seems weird to me that we knew all along the end stage is going to be training/ct but rather than just get right down to it we spend 18-24 months in places like Sangin and Arghandab having kids get their legs blown off before drawing down numbers and getting on with the ct mission. Not to get too personal but from this only somewhat informed outsider's perspective it seems like the coin folks just got it wrong this time around.

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