Package evaluation of StateSpaceModels on Julia 1.13.0-DEV.140 (fac1ce7906*) started at 2025-03-02T13:47:44.998 ################################################################################ # Set-up # Installing PkgEval dependencies (TestEnv)... Set-up completed after 7.91s ################################################################################ # Installation # Installing StateSpaceModels... Resolving package versions... Updating `~/.julia/environments/v1.13/Project.toml` [99342f36] + StateSpaceModels v0.6.7 Updating `~/.julia/environments/v1.13/Manifest.toml` [79e6a3ab] + Adapt v4.2.0 [66dad0bd] + AliasTables v1.1.3 [4fba245c] + ArrayInterface v7.18.0 [bbf7d656] + CommonSubexpressions v0.3.1 [34da2185] + Compat v4.16.0 [187b0558] + ConstructionBase v1.5.8 [9a962f9c] + DataAPI v1.16.0 [864edb3b] + DataStructures v0.18.20 [163ba53b] + DiffResults v1.1.0 [b552c78f] + DiffRules v1.15.1 [31c24e10] + Distributions v0.25.117 [ffbed154] + DocStringExtensions v0.9.3 [e2ba6199] + ExprTools v0.1.10 [1a297f60] + FillArrays v1.13.0 [6a86dc24] + FiniteDiff v2.27.0 [f6369f11] + ForwardDiff v0.10.38 [34004b35] + HypergeometricFunctions v0.3.27 [842dd82b] + InlineStrings v1.4.3 [d8418881] + Intervals v1.10.0 [92d709cd] + IrrationalConstants v0.2.4 [692b3bcd] + JLLWrappers v1.7.0 [d3d80556] + LineSearches v7.3.0 [7a12625a] + LinearMaps v3.11.4 [2ab3a3ac] + LogExpFunctions v0.3.29 [1914dd2f] + MacroTools v0.5.15 [99c1a7ee] + MatrixEquations v2.4.2 [e1d29d7a] + Missings v1.2.0 [78c3b35d] + Mocking v0.8.1 [d8a4904e] + MutableArithmetics v1.6.4 [d41bc354] + NLSolversBase v7.8.3 [77ba4419] + NaNMath v1.1.2 [429524aa] + Optim v1.11.0 [bac558e1] + OrderedCollections v1.8.0 [90014a1f] + PDMats v0.11.32 [d96e819e] + Parameters v0.12.3 ⌅ [f27b6e38] + Polynomials v2.0.25 [85a6dd25] + PositiveFactorizations v0.2.4 [aea7be01] + PrecompileTools v1.2.1 [21216c6a] + Preferences v1.4.3 [43287f4e] + PtrArrays v1.3.0 [1fd47b50] + QuadGK v2.11.2 [3cdcf5f2] + RecipesBase v1.3.4 [189a3867] + Reexport v1.2.2 [ae029012] + Requires v1.3.1 [79098fc4] + Rmath v0.8.0 [6c6a2e73] + Scratch v1.2.1 [42fb36cb] + SeasonalTrendLoess v0.1.0 [efcf1570] + Setfield v1.1.2 ⌅ [1277b4bf] + ShiftedArrays v1.0.0 [a2af1166] + SortingAlgorithms v1.2.1 [276daf66] + SpecialFunctions v2.5.0 [99342f36] + StateSpaceModels v0.6.7 [1e83bf80] + StaticArraysCore v1.4.3 [10745b16] + Statistics v1.11.1 [82ae8749] + StatsAPI v1.7.0 ⌅ [2913bbd2] + StatsBase v0.33.21 [4c63d2b9] + StatsFuns v1.3.2 [dc5dba14] + TZJData v1.4.0+2025a [f269a46b] + TimeZones v1.21.2 [3a884ed6] + UnPack v1.0.2 [efe28fd5] + OpenSpecFun_jll v0.5.6+0 [f50d1b31] + Rmath_jll v0.5.1+0 [0dad84c5] + ArgTools v1.1.2 [56f22d72] + Artifacts v1.11.0 [2a0f44e3] + Base64 v1.11.0 [ade2ca70] + Dates v1.11.0 [8ba89e20] + Distributed v1.11.0 [f43a241f] + Downloads v1.7.0 [7b1f6079] + FileWatching v1.11.0 [9fa8497b] + Future v1.11.0 [b77e0a4c] + InteractiveUtils v1.11.0 [ac6e5ff7] + JuliaSyntaxHighlighting v1.12.0 [b27032c2] + LibCURL v0.6.4 [76f85450] + LibGit2 v1.11.0 [8f399da3] + Libdl v1.11.0 [37e2e46d] + LinearAlgebra v1.12.0 [56ddb016] + Logging v1.11.0 [d6f4376e] + Markdown v1.11.0 [ca575930] + NetworkOptions v1.3.0 [de0858da] + Printf v1.11.0 [9a3f8284] + Random v1.11.0 [ea8e919c] + SHA v0.7.0 [9e88b42a] + Serialization v1.11.0 [6462fe0b] + Sockets v1.11.0 [2f01184e] + SparseArrays v1.12.0 [f489334b] + StyledStrings v1.11.0 [4607b0f0] + SuiteSparse [fa267f1f] + TOML v1.0.3 [8dfed614] + Test v1.11.0 [cf7118a7] + UUIDs v1.11.0 [4ec0a83e] + Unicode v1.11.0 [e66e0078] + CompilerSupportLibraries_jll v1.3.0+1 [deac9b47] + LibCURL_jll v8.11.1+1 [e37daf67] + LibGit2_jll v1.9.0+0 [29816b5a] + LibSSH2_jll v1.11.3+1 [14a3606d] + MozillaCACerts_jll v2024.12.31 [4536629a] + OpenBLAS_jll v0.3.29+0 [05823500] + OpenLibm_jll v0.8.5+0 [458c3c95] + OpenSSL_jll v3.0.16+0 [bea87d4a] + SuiteSparse_jll v7.8.3+2 [83775a58] + Zlib_jll v1.3.1+2 [8e850b90] + libblastrampoline_jll v5.12.0+0 [8e850ede] + nghttp2_jll v1.64.0+1 [3f19e933] + p7zip_jll v17.5.0+2 Info Packages marked with ⌅ have new versions available but compatibility constraints restrict them from upgrading. To see why use `status --outdated -m` Installation completed after 2.92s ################################################################################ # Precompilation # Precompiling PkgEval dependencies... Precompiling package dependencies... Precompilation completed after 78.49s ################################################################################ # Testing # Testing StateSpaceModels Status `/tmp/jl_HtAEYi/Project.toml` [336ed68f] CSV v0.10.15 [a93c6f00] DataFrames v1.7.0 [31c24e10] Distributions v0.25.117 [99c1a7ee] MatrixEquations v2.4.2 [429524aa] Optim v1.11.0 [bac558e1] OrderedCollections v1.8.0 ⌅ [f27b6e38] Polynomials v2.0.25 [3cdcf5f2] RecipesBase v1.3.4 [42fb36cb] SeasonalTrendLoess v0.1.0 ⌅ [1277b4bf] ShiftedArrays v1.0.0 [99342f36] StateSpaceModels v0.6.7 [10745b16] Statistics v1.11.1 ⌅ [2913bbd2] StatsBase v0.33.21 [37e2e46d] LinearAlgebra v1.12.0 [de0858da] Printf v1.11.0 [9a3f8284] Random v1.11.0 [2f01184e] SparseArrays v1.12.0 [8dfed614] Test v1.11.0 Status `/tmp/jl_HtAEYi/Manifest.toml` [79e6a3ab] Adapt v4.2.0 [66dad0bd] AliasTables v1.1.3 [4fba245c] ArrayInterface v7.18.0 [336ed68f] CSV v0.10.15 [944b1d66] CodecZlib v0.7.8 [bbf7d656] CommonSubexpressions v0.3.1 [34da2185] Compat v4.16.0 [187b0558] ConstructionBase v1.5.8 [a8cc5b0e] Crayons v4.1.1 [9a962f9c] DataAPI v1.16.0 [a93c6f00] DataFrames v1.7.0 [864edb3b] DataStructures v0.18.20 [e2d170a0] DataValueInterfaces v1.0.0 [163ba53b] DiffResults v1.1.0 [b552c78f] DiffRules v1.15.1 [31c24e10] Distributions v0.25.117 [ffbed154] DocStringExtensions v0.9.3 [e2ba6199] ExprTools v0.1.10 [48062228] FilePathsBase v0.9.23 [1a297f60] FillArrays v1.13.0 [6a86dc24] FiniteDiff v2.27.0 [f6369f11] ForwardDiff v0.10.38 [34004b35] HypergeometricFunctions v0.3.27 [842dd82b] InlineStrings v1.4.3 [d8418881] Intervals v1.10.0 [41ab1584] InvertedIndices v1.3.1 [92d709cd] IrrationalConstants v0.2.4 [82899510] IteratorInterfaceExtensions v1.0.0 [692b3bcd] JLLWrappers v1.7.0 [b964fa9f] LaTeXStrings v1.4.0 [d3d80556] LineSearches v7.3.0 [7a12625a] LinearMaps v3.11.4 [2ab3a3ac] LogExpFunctions v0.3.29 [1914dd2f] MacroTools v0.5.15 [99c1a7ee] MatrixEquations v2.4.2 [e1d29d7a] Missings v1.2.0 [78c3b35d] Mocking v0.8.1 [d8a4904e] MutableArithmetics v1.6.4 [d41bc354] NLSolversBase v7.8.3 [77ba4419] NaNMath v1.1.2 [429524aa] Optim v1.11.0 [bac558e1] OrderedCollections v1.8.0 [90014a1f] PDMats v0.11.32 [d96e819e] Parameters v0.12.3 [69de0a69] Parsers v2.8.1 ⌅ [f27b6e38] Polynomials v2.0.25 [2dfb63ee] PooledArrays v1.4.3 [85a6dd25] PositiveFactorizations v0.2.4 [aea7be01] PrecompileTools v1.2.1 [21216c6a] Preferences v1.4.3 [08abe8d2] PrettyTables v2.4.0 [43287f4e] PtrArrays v1.3.0 [1fd47b50] QuadGK v2.11.2 [3cdcf5f2] RecipesBase v1.3.4 [189a3867] Reexport v1.2.2 [ae029012] Requires v1.3.1 [79098fc4] Rmath v0.8.0 [6c6a2e73] Scratch v1.2.1 [42fb36cb] SeasonalTrendLoess v0.1.0 [91c51154] SentinelArrays v1.4.8 [efcf1570] Setfield v1.1.2 ⌅ [1277b4bf] ShiftedArrays v1.0.0 [a2af1166] SortingAlgorithms v1.2.1 [276daf66] SpecialFunctions v2.5.0 [99342f36] StateSpaceModels v0.6.7 [1e83bf80] StaticArraysCore v1.4.3 [10745b16] Statistics v1.11.1 [82ae8749] StatsAPI v1.7.0 ⌅ [2913bbd2] StatsBase v0.33.21 [4c63d2b9] StatsFuns v1.3.2 [892a3eda] StringManipulation v0.4.1 [dc5dba14] TZJData v1.4.0+2025a [3783bdb8] TableTraits v1.0.1 [bd369af6] Tables v1.12.0 [f269a46b] TimeZones v1.21.2 [3bb67fe8] TranscodingStreams v0.11.3 [3a884ed6] UnPack v1.0.2 [ea10d353] WeakRefStrings v1.4.2 [76eceee3] WorkerUtilities v1.6.1 [efe28fd5] OpenSpecFun_jll v0.5.6+0 [f50d1b31] Rmath_jll v0.5.1+0 [0dad84c5] ArgTools v1.1.2 [56f22d72] Artifacts v1.11.0 [2a0f44e3] Base64 v1.11.0 [ade2ca70] Dates v1.11.0 [8ba89e20] Distributed v1.11.0 [f43a241f] Downloads v1.7.0 [7b1f6079] FileWatching v1.11.0 [9fa8497b] Future v1.11.0 [b77e0a4c] InteractiveUtils v1.11.0 [ac6e5ff7] JuliaSyntaxHighlighting v1.12.0 [b27032c2] LibCURL v0.6.4 [76f85450] LibGit2 v1.11.0 [8f399da3] Libdl v1.11.0 [37e2e46d] LinearAlgebra v1.12.0 [56ddb016] Logging v1.11.0 [d6f4376e] Markdown v1.11.0 [a63ad114] Mmap v1.11.0 [ca575930] NetworkOptions v1.3.0 [de0858da] Printf v1.11.0 [9a3f8284] Random v1.11.0 [ea8e919c] SHA v0.7.0 [9e88b42a] Serialization v1.11.0 [6462fe0b] Sockets v1.11.0 [2f01184e] SparseArrays v1.12.0 [f489334b] StyledStrings v1.11.0 [4607b0f0] SuiteSparse [fa267f1f] TOML v1.0.3 [8dfed614] Test v1.11.0 [cf7118a7] UUIDs v1.11.0 [4ec0a83e] Unicode v1.11.0 [e66e0078] CompilerSupportLibraries_jll v1.3.0+1 [deac9b47] LibCURL_jll v8.11.1+1 [e37daf67] LibGit2_jll v1.9.0+0 [29816b5a] LibSSH2_jll v1.11.3+1 [14a3606d] MozillaCACerts_jll v2024.12.31 [4536629a] OpenBLAS_jll v0.3.29+0 [05823500] OpenLibm_jll v0.8.5+0 [458c3c95] OpenSSL_jll v3.0.16+0 [bea87d4a] SuiteSparse_jll v7.8.3+2 [83775a58] Zlib_jll v1.3.1+2 [8e850b90] libblastrampoline_jll v5.12.0+0 [8e850ede] nghttp2_jll v1.64.0+1 [3f19e933] p7zip_jll v17.5.0+2 Info Packages marked with ⌅ have new versions available but compatibility constraints restrict them from upgrading. Testing Running tests... Precompiling packages... 12735.7 ms ✓ StatsBase 7710.5 ms ✓ TimeZones 19600.8 ms ✓ Distributions 21208.3 ms ✓ Optim 4799.9 ms ✓ TimeZones → TimeZonesRecipesBaseExt 6352.6 ms ✓ Distributions → DistributionsTestExt 19752.3 ms ✓ Intervals 17191.9 ms ✓ Polynomials 15968.3 ms ✓ StateSpaceModels 9 dependencies successfully precompiled in 127 seconds. 100 already precompiled. 2 dependencies had output during precompilation: ┌ TimeZones │ WARNING: Constructor for type "DateTime" was extended in `TimeZones` without explicit qualification or import. │ NOTE: Assumed "DateTime" refers to `Dates.DateTime`. This behavior is deprecated and may differ in future versions. │ NOTE: This behavior may have differed in Julia versions prior to 1.12. │ Hint: If you intended to create a new generic function of the same name, use `function DateTime end`. │ Hint: To silence the warning, qualify `DateTime` as `Dates.DateTime` in the method signature or explicitly `import Dates: DateTime`. │ WARNING: Constructor for type "Date" was extended in `TimeZones` without explicit qualification or import. │ NOTE: Assumed "Date" refers to `Dates.Date`. This behavior is deprecated and may differ in future versions. │ NOTE: This behavior may have differed in Julia versions prior to 1.12. │ Hint: If you intended to create a new generic function of the same name, use `function Date end`. │ Hint: To silence the warning, qualify `Date` as `Dates.Date` in the method signature or explicitly `import Dates: Date`. │ WARNING: Constructor for type "Time" was extended in `TimeZones` without explicit qualification or import. │ NOTE: Assumed "Time" refers to `Dates.Time`. This behavior is deprecated and may differ in future versions. │ NOTE: This behavior may have differed in Julia versions prior to 1.12. │ Hint: If you intended to create a new generic function of the same name, use `function Time end`. │ Hint: To silence the warning, qualify `Time` as `Dates.Time` in the method signature or explicitly `import Dates: Time`. └ ┌ Polynomials │ WARNING: Constructor for type "Symbol" was extended in `Polynomials` without explicit qualification or import. │ NOTE: Assumed "Symbol" refers to `Base.Symbol`. This behavior is deprecated and may differ in future versions. │ NOTE: This behavior may have differed in Julia versions prior to 1.12. │ Hint: If you intended to create a new generic function of the same name, use `function Symbol end`. │ Hint: To silence the warning, qualify `Symbol` as `Base.Symbol` in the method signature or explicitly `import Base: Symbol`. │ WARNING: method definition for showterm at /home/pkgeval/.julia/packages/Polynomials/Rrf70/src/polynomials/ChebyshevT.jl:270 declares type variable N but does not use it. │ WARNING: method definition for convert at /home/pkgeval/.julia/packages/Polynomials/Rrf70/src/rational-functions/common.jl:88 declares type variable P but does not use it. │ WARNING: method definition for convert at /home/pkgeval/.julia/packages/Polynomials/Rrf70/src/rational-functions/common.jl:88 declares type variable X but does not use it. │ WARNING: method definition for convert at /home/pkgeval/.julia/packages/Polynomials/Rrf70/src/rational-functions/common.jl:88 declares type variable T but does not use it. └ Test Summary: | Pass Total Time Linear systems | 10 10 14.2s LocalLevel Results =============================================================== Model: LocalLevel Number of observations: 100 Number of unknown parameters: 2 Log-likelihood: -21.9619 AIC: 47.9238 AICc: 48.0475 BIC: 53.1341 --------------------------------------------------------------- Parameter Estimate Std.Error z stat p-value sigma2_ε 0.0861 0.0212 4.0624 0.0000 sigma2_η 0.0001 0.0095 0.0071 0.4585 SARIMA(1, 0, 0)x(0, 0, 0, 0) with zero mean Test Summary: | Total Time Prints | 0 27.5s Test Summary: | Pass Total Time LocalLevel | 142 142 1m15.9s Test Summary: | Pass Total Time Local Linear Trend Model | 4 4 10.4s Test Summary: | Pass Total Time Local Level With Cycle Model | 7 7 2.9s ┌ Warning: The optimization process converged but the Hessian matrix is not positive definite. This means that StateSpaceModels.jl cannot estimate the distribution of the hyperparameters If you are interested in estimates of the distribution of ther hyperparameters we advise you tochange the optimization algorithm by using the kwarg fit(...; optimizer = Optimizer(StateSpaceModels.Optim.THE_METHOD_OF_YOUR_CHOICE()))The list of possible algorithms can be found on this link https://julianlsolvers.github.io/Optim.jl/stable/# otherwise you can simply skip this proccess by using fit(...; save_hyperparameter_distribution=false) └ @ StateSpaceModels ~/.julia/packages/StateSpaceModels/DmxMT/src/fit.jl:57 Test Summary: | Pass Total Time Local Level With Explanatory Model | 2 2 11.1s Test Summary: | Pass Broken Total Time Basic Structural Model | 26 2 28 26.4s ┌ Warning: The optimization process converged but the Hessian matrix is not positive definite. This means that StateSpaceModels.jl cannot estimate the distribution of the hyperparameters If you are interested in estimates of the distribution of ther hyperparameters we advise you tochange the optimization algorithm by using the kwarg fit(...; optimizer = Optimizer(StateSpaceModels.Optim.THE_METHOD_OF_YOUR_CHOICE()))The list of possible algorithms can be found on this link https://julianlsolvers.github.io/Optim.jl/stable/# otherwise you can simply skip this proccess by using fit(...; save_hyperparameter_distribution=false) └ @ StateSpaceModels ~/.julia/packages/StateSpaceModels/DmxMT/src/fit.jl:57 ┌ Warning: The optimization process converged but the Hessian matrix is not positive definite. This means that StateSpaceModels.jl cannot estimate the distribution of the hyperparameters If you are interested in estimates of the distribution of ther hyperparameters we advise you tochange the optimization algorithm by using the kwarg fit(...; optimizer = Optimizer(StateSpaceModels.Optim.THE_METHOD_OF_YOUR_CHOICE()))The list of possible algorithms can be found on this link https://julianlsolvers.github.io/Optim.jl/stable/# otherwise you can simply skip this proccess by using fit(...; save_hyperparameter_distribution=false) └ @ StateSpaceModels ~/.julia/packages/StateSpaceModels/DmxMT/src/fit.jl:57 Test Summary: | Pass Total Time Basic Structural With Explanatory Model | 23 23 9.7s ┌ Warning: The optimization process converged but the Hessian matrix is not positive definite. This means that StateSpaceModels.jl cannot estimate the distribution of the hyperparameters If you are interested in estimates of the distribution of ther hyperparameters we advise you tochange the optimization algorithm by using the kwarg fit(...; optimizer = Optimizer(StateSpaceModels.Optim.THE_METHOD_OF_YOUR_CHOICE()))The list of possible algorithms can be found on this link https://julianlsolvers.github.io/Optim.jl/stable/# otherwise you can simply skip this proccess by using fit(...; save_hyperparameter_distribution=false) └ @ StateSpaceModels ~/.julia/packages/StateSpaceModels/DmxMT/src/fit.jl:57 Test Summary: | Pass Total Time Multivariate Basic Structural Model | 11 11 53.2s ┌ Warning: The optimization process converged but the Hessian matrix is not positive definite. This means that StateSpaceModels.jl cannot estimate the distribution of the hyperparameters If you are interested in estimates of the distribution of ther hyperparameters we advise you tochange the optimization algorithm by using the kwarg fit(...; optimizer = Optimizer(StateSpaceModels.Optim.THE_METHOD_OF_YOUR_CHOICE()))The list of possible algorithms can be found on this link https://julianlsolvers.github.io/Optim.jl/stable/# otherwise you can simply skip this proccess by using fit(...; save_hyperparameter_distribution=false) └ @ StateSpaceModels ~/.julia/packages/StateSpaceModels/DmxMT/src/fit.jl:57 ┌ Warning: The optimization process converged but the Hessian matrix is not positive definite. This means that StateSpaceModels.jl cannot estimate the distribution of the hyperparameters If you are interested in estimates of the distribution of ther hyperparameters we advise you tochange the optimization algorithm by using the kwarg fit(...; optimizer = Optimizer(StateSpaceModels.Optim.THE_METHOD_OF_YOUR_CHOICE()))The list of possible algorithms can be found on this link https://julianlsolvers.github.io/Optim.jl/stable/# otherwise you can simply skip this proccess by using fit(...; save_hyperparameter_distribution=false) └ @ StateSpaceModels ~/.julia/packages/StateSpaceModels/DmxMT/src/fit.jl:57 ┌ Warning: The optimization process converged but the Hessian matrix is not positive definite. This means that StateSpaceModels.jl cannot estimate the distribution of the hyperparameters If you are interested in estimates of the distribution of ther hyperparameters we advise you tochange the optimization algorithm by using the kwarg fit(...; optimizer = Optimizer(StateSpaceModels.Optim.THE_METHOD_OF_YOUR_CHOICE()))The list of possible algorithms can be found on this link https://julianlsolvers.github.io/Optim.jl/stable/# otherwise you can simply skip this proccess by using fit(...; save_hyperparameter_distribution=false) └ @ StateSpaceModels ~/.julia/packages/StateSpaceModels/DmxMT/src/fit.jl:57 Model specification Selection metric SARIMA(2, 1, 2)x(0, 0, 0, 0) with non-zero mean : 1273.7583241043708 SARIMA(1, 1, 0)x(0, 0, 0, 0) with non-zero mean : 1283.7664413377772 SARIMA(0, 1, 1)x(0, 0, 0, 0) with non-zero mean : 1271.3254406717435 SARIMA(0, 1, 0)x(0, 0, 0, 0) with non-zero mean : 1298.82084537551 Search iteration complete: Current best is SARIMA(0, 1, 1)x(0, 0, 0, 0) with non-zero mean SARIMA(0, 1, 1)x(0, 0, 0, 0) with non-zero mean : 1271.3254406717435 SARIMA(0, 1, 2)x(0, 0, 0, 0) with non-zero mean : 1270.3396088573338 SARIMA(1, 1, 1)x(0, 0, 0, 0) with non-zero mean : 1269.639685309464 SARIMA(1, 1, 2)x(0, 0, 0, 0) with non-zero mean : 1271.5231847769442 SARIMA(0, 1, 1)x(0, 0, 0, 0) with zero mean : 1269.1991241909998 Search iteration complete: Current best is SARIMA(0, 1, 1)x(0, 0, 0, 0) with zero mean SARIMA(0, 1, 1)x(0, 0, 0, 0) with zero mean : 1269.1991241909998 SARIMA(0, 1, 0)x(0, 0, 0, 0) with zero mean : 1296.7379503618345 SARIMA(0, 1, 2)x(0, 0, 0, 0) with zero mean : 1268.1686240195534 SARIMA(1, 1, 0)x(0, 0, 0, 0) with zero mean : 1281.639997648152 SARIMA(1, 1, 1)x(0, 0, 0, 0) with zero mean : 1267.4694960276934 SARIMA(1, 1, 2)x(0, 0, 0, 0) with zero mean : 1269.3060098063538 Search iteration complete: Current best is SARIMA(1, 1, 1)x(0, 0, 0, 0) with zero mean SARIMA(1, 1, 1)x(0, 0, 0, 0) with zero mean : 1267.4694960276934 SARIMA(2, 1, 0)x(0, 0, 0, 0) with zero mean : 1277.6748597747255 SARIMA(2, 1, 1)x(0, 0, 0, 0) with zero mean : 1269.2845121277778 SARIMA(2, 1, 2)x(0, 0, 0, 0) with zero mean : 1271.493455682865 Search iteration complete: Current best is SARIMA(1, 1, 1)x(0, 0, 0, 0) with zero mean Model specification Selection metric SARIMA(2, 0, 2)x(1, 1, 1, 12) with non-zero mean - diverged SARIMA(1, 0, 0)x(1, 1, 0, 12) with non-zero mean - diverged SARIMA(0, 0, 1)x(0, 1, 1, 12) with non-zero mean : -275.9860348257948 SARIMA(0, 0, 0)x(0, 1, 0, 12) with non-zero mean : -150.6710081689509 Search iteration complete: Current best is SARIMA(0, 0, 1)x(0, 1, 1, 12) with non-zero mean SARIMA(0, 0, 1)x(0, 1, 1, 12) with non-zero mean : -275.9860348257948 SARIMA(0, 0, 0)x(0, 1, 1, 12) with non-zero mean : -195.26147815976276 SARIMA(0, 0, 2)x(0, 1, 1, 12) with non-zero mean : -342.18833334397016 SARIMA(1, 0, 0)x(0, 1, 1, 12) with non-zero mean : -465.3404134621623 SARIMA(1, 0, 1)x(0, 1, 1, 12) with non-zero mean : -480.7815979859845 SARIMA(1, 0, 2)x(0, 1, 1, 12) with non-zero mean : -478.79090656389997 SARIMA(0, 0, 1)x(0, 1, 0, 12) with non-zero mean : -257.211083917065 SARIMA(0, 0, 1)x(0, 1, 2, 12) with non-zero mean : -292.80147344410454 SARIMA(0, 0, 1)x(1, 1, 0, 12) with non-zero mean : -297.97641916237393 SARIMA(0, 0, 1)x(1, 1, 1, 12) with non-zero mean : -351.9114270445237 SARIMA(0, 0, 1)x(1, 1, 2, 12) with non-zero mean : -364.3281045319041 SARIMA(0, 0, 1)x(0, 1, 1, 12) with zero mean : -278.10237618630487 Search iteration complete: Current best is SARIMA(1, 0, 1)x(0, 1, 1, 12) with non-zero mean SARIMA(1, 0, 1)x(1, 1, 0, 12) with non-zero mean - diverged SARIMA(1, 0, 1)x(1, 1, 1, 12) with non-zero mean - diverged SARIMA(1, 0, 1)x(1, 1, 2, 12) with non-zero mean - diverged SARIMA(1, 0, 1)x(0, 1, 1, 12) with non-zero mean : -480.7815979859845 SARIMA(2, 0, 0)x(0, 1, 1, 12) with non-zero mean : -478.98470523898135 SARIMA(2, 0, 1)x(0, 1, 1, 12) with non-zero mean : -479.03369324182364 SARIMA(2, 0, 2)x(0, 1, 1, 12) with non-zero mean : -477.34304772665365 SARIMA(1, 0, 1)x(0, 1, 0, 12) with non-zero mean : -449.08155317517054 SARIMA(1, 0, 1)x(0, 1, 2, 12) with non-zero mean : -479.1612321635512 SARIMA(1, 0, 1)x(0, 1, 1, 12) with zero mean : -482.92861902346755 Search iteration complete: Current best is SARIMA(1, 0, 1)x(0, 1, 1, 12) with zero mean SARIMA(1, 0, 1)x(1, 1, 0, 12) with zero mean - diverged SARIMA(1, 0, 1)x(1, 1, 1, 12) with zero mean - diverged SARIMA(1, 0, 1)x(1, 1, 2, 12) with zero mean - diverged SARIMA(1, 0, 1)x(0, 1, 1, 12) with zero mean : -482.92861902346755 SARIMA(0, 0, 0)x(0, 1, 1, 12) with zero mean : -197.34780037734544 SARIMA(0, 0, 2)x(0, 1, 1, 12) with zero mean : -344.33534626350485 SARIMA(1, 0, 0)x(0, 1, 1, 12) with zero mean : -467.456831767822 SARIMA(1, 0, 2)x(0, 1, 1, 12) with zero mean : -480.96925643207453 SARIMA(2, 0, 0)x(0, 1, 1, 12) with zero mean : -481.13172318271296 SARIMA(2, 0, 1)x(0, 1, 1, 12) with zero mean : -481.21204781806443 SARIMA(2, 0, 2)x(0, 1, 1, 12) with zero mean : -479.5839219195021 SARIMA(1, 0, 1)x(0, 1, 0, 12) with zero mean : -451.1978937262987 SARIMA(1, 0, 1)x(0, 1, 2, 12) with zero mean : -481.3395855838078 Search iteration complete: Current best is SARIMA(1, 0, 1)x(0, 1, 1, 12) with zero mean Test Summary: | Pass Broken Total Time SARIMA | 44 2 46 3m40.4s Test Summary: | Pass Total Time UnobservedComponents | 13 13 5.9s Test Summary: | Pass Total Time Regression | 51 51 5.5s ┌ Warning: The optimization process converged but the Hessian matrix is not positive definite. This means that StateSpaceModels.jl cannot estimate the distribution of the hyperparameters If you are interested in estimates of the distribution of ther hyperparameters we advise you tochange the optimization algorithm by using the kwarg fit(...; optimizer = Optimizer(StateSpaceModels.Optim.THE_METHOD_OF_YOUR_CHOICE()))The list of possible algorithms can be found on this link https://julianlsolvers.github.io/Optim.jl/stable/# otherwise you can simply skip this proccess by using fit(...; save_hyperparameter_distribution=false) └ @ StateSpaceModels ~/.julia/packages/StateSpaceModels/DmxMT/src/fit.jl:57 ┌ Warning: The optimization process converged but the Hessian matrix is not positive definite. This means that StateSpaceModels.jl cannot estimate the distribution of the hyperparameters If you are interested in estimates of the distribution of ther hyperparameters we advise you tochange the optimization algorithm by using the kwarg fit(...; optimizer = Optimizer(StateSpaceModels.Optim.THE_METHOD_OF_YOUR_CHOICE()))The list of possible algorithms can be found on this link https://julianlsolvers.github.io/Optim.jl/stable/# otherwise you can simply skip this proccess by using fit(...; save_hyperparameter_distribution=false) └ @ StateSpaceModels ~/.julia/packages/StateSpaceModels/DmxMT/src/fit.jl:57 ┌ Warning: The optimization process converged but the Hessian matrix is not positive definite. This means that StateSpaceModels.jl cannot estimate the distribution of the hyperparameters If you are interested in estimates of the distribution of ther hyperparameters we advise you tochange the optimization algorithm by using the kwarg fit(...; optimizer = Optimizer(StateSpaceModels.Optim.THE_METHOD_OF_YOUR_CHOICE()))The list of possible algorithms can be found on this link https://julianlsolvers.github.io/Optim.jl/stable/# otherwise you can simply skip this proccess by using fit(...; save_hyperparameter_distribution=false) └ @ StateSpaceModels ~/.julia/packages/StateSpaceModels/DmxMT/src/fit.jl:57 ┌ Warning: The optimization process converged but the Hessian matrix is not positive definite. This means that StateSpaceModels.jl cannot estimate the distribution of the hyperparameters If you are interested in estimates of the distribution of ther hyperparameters we advise you tochange the optimization algorithm by using the kwarg fit(...; optimizer = Optimizer(StateSpaceModels.Optim.THE_METHOD_OF_YOUR_CHOICE()))The list of possible algorithms can be found on this link https://julianlsolvers.github.io/Optim.jl/stable/# otherwise you can simply skip this proccess by using fit(...; save_hyperparameter_distribution=false) └ @ StateSpaceModels ~/.julia/packages/StateSpaceModels/DmxMT/src/fit.jl:57 ┌ Warning: The optimization process converged but the Hessian matrix is not positive definite. This means that StateSpaceModels.jl cannot estimate the distribution of the hyperparameters If you are interested in estimates of the distribution of ther hyperparameters we advise you tochange the optimization algorithm by using the kwarg fit(...; optimizer = Optimizer(StateSpaceModels.Optim.THE_METHOD_OF_YOUR_CHOICE()))The list of possible algorithms can be found on this link https://julianlsolvers.github.io/Optim.jl/stable/# otherwise you can simply skip this proccess by using fit(...; save_hyperparameter_distribution=false) └ @ StateSpaceModels ~/.julia/packages/StateSpaceModels/DmxMT/src/fit.jl:57 Test Summary: | Pass Total Time ExponentialSmoothing | 14 14 30.5s CrossValidation: step 1 of 20 CrossValidation: step 2 of 20 CrossValidation: step 3 of 20 CrossValidation: step 4 of 20 CrossValidation: step 5 of 20 CrossValidation: step 6 of 20 CrossValidation: step 7 of 20 CrossValidation: step 8 of 20 CrossValidation: step 9 of 20 CrossValidation: step 10 of 20 CrossValidation: step 11 of 20 CrossValidation: step 12 of 20 CrossValidation: step 13 of 20 CrossValidation: step 14 of 20 CrossValidation: step 15 of 20 CrossValidation: step 16 of 20 CrossValidation: step 17 of 20 CrossValidation: step 18 of 20 CrossValidation: step 19 of 20 CrossValidation: step 20 of 20 Test Summary: | Pass Total Time Naive models | 13 13 6.2s Test Summary: | Pass Total Time DAR Model | 4 4 9.1s Test Summary: | Pass Total Time Vehicle tracking | 1 1 1.1s Test Summary: | Pass Total Time Visualization Forecast | 4 4 2.4s ┌ Warning: The optimization process converged but the Hessian matrix is not positive definite. This means that StateSpaceModels.jl cannot estimate the distribution of the hyperparameters If you are interested in estimates of the distribution of ther hyperparameters we advise you tochange the optimization algorithm by using the kwarg fit(...; optimizer = Optimizer(StateSpaceModels.Optim.THE_METHOD_OF_YOUR_CHOICE()))The list of possible algorithms can be found on this link https://julianlsolvers.github.io/Optim.jl/stable/# otherwise you can simply skip this proccess by using fit(...; save_hyperparameter_distribution=false) └ @ StateSpaceModels ~/.julia/packages/StateSpaceModels/DmxMT/src/fit.jl:57 Test Summary: | Pass Total Time Visualization Unobserved Components | 8 8 10.2s CrossValidation: step 1 of 10 CrossValidation: step 2 of 10 CrossValidation: step 3 of 10 CrossValidation: step 4 of 10 CrossValidation: step 5 of 10 CrossValidation: step 6 of 10 CrossValidation: step 7 of 10 CrossValidation: step 8 of 10 CrossValidation: step 9 of 10 CrossValidation: step 10 of 10 Test Summary: | Pass Total Time Visualization Forecast | 1 1 9.8s Test Summary: | Pass Total Time Visualization Diagnostics | 4 4 0.5s Testing StateSpaceModels tests passed Testing completed after 709.27s PkgEval succeeded after 814.16s