Package evaluation of StateSpaceModels on Julia 1.12.0-DEV.1805 (a080deafdd*) started at 2025-03-24T20:07:06.191 ################################################################################ # Set-up # Installing PkgEval dependencies (TestEnv)... Set-up completed after 9.06s ################################################################################ # Installation # Installing StateSpaceModels... Resolving package versions... Updating `~/.julia/environments/v1.12/Project.toml` [99342f36] + StateSpaceModels v0.7.0 Updating `~/.julia/environments/v1.12/Manifest.toml` [47edcb42] + ADTypes v1.14.0 [79e6a3ab] + Adapt v4.3.0 [66dad0bd] + AliasTables v1.1.3 [4fba245c] + ArrayInterface v7.18.0 [bbf7d656] + CommonSubexpressions v0.3.1 [34da2185] + Compat v4.16.0 [187b0558] + ConstructionBase v1.5.8 [9a962f9c] + DataAPI v1.16.0 [864edb3b] + DataStructures v0.18.22 [163ba53b] + DiffResults v1.1.0 [b552c78f] + DiffRules v1.15.1 [a0c0ee7d] + DifferentiationInterface v0.6.48 [31c24e10] + Distributions v0.25.118 [ffbed154] + DocStringExtensions v0.9.3 [1a297f60] + FillArrays v1.13.0 [6a86dc24] + FiniteDiff v2.27.0 [f6369f11] + ForwardDiff v0.10.38 [34004b35] + HypergeometricFunctions v0.3.28 [92d709cd] + IrrationalConstants v0.2.4 [692b3bcd] + JLLWrappers v1.7.0 [d3d80556] + LineSearches v7.3.0 [7a12625a] + LinearMaps v3.11.4 [2ab3a3ac] + LogExpFunctions v0.3.29 [1914dd2f] + MacroTools v0.5.15 [99c1a7ee] + MatrixEquations v2.4.3 [e1d29d7a] + Missings v1.2.0 [d41bc354] + NLSolversBase v7.9.0 [77ba4419] + NaNMath v1.1.2 [429524aa] + Optim v1.11.0 [bac558e1] + OrderedCollections v1.8.0 [90014a1f] + PDMats v0.11.32 [d96e819e] + Parameters v0.12.3 [f27b6e38] + Polynomials v4.0.19 [85a6dd25] + PositiveFactorizations v0.2.4 [aea7be01] + PrecompileTools v1.2.1 [21216c6a] + Preferences v1.4.3 [43287f4e] + PtrArrays v1.3.0 [1fd47b50] + QuadGK v2.11.2 [3cdcf5f2] + RecipesBase v1.3.4 [189a3867] + Reexport v1.2.2 [ae029012] + Requires v1.3.1 [79098fc4] + Rmath v0.8.0 [42fb36cb] + SeasonalTrendLoess v0.1.0 [efcf1570] + Setfield v1.1.2 [1277b4bf] + ShiftedArrays v2.0.0 [a2af1166] + SortingAlgorithms v1.2.1 [276daf66] + SpecialFunctions v2.5.0 [99342f36] + StateSpaceModels v0.7.0 [1e83bf80] + StaticArraysCore v1.4.3 [10745b16] + Statistics v1.11.1 [82ae8749] + StatsAPI v1.7.0 [2913bbd2] + StatsBase v0.34.4 [4c63d2b9] + StatsFuns v1.3.2 [3a884ed6] + UnPack v1.0.2 [efe28fd5] + OpenSpecFun_jll v0.5.6+0 [f50d1b31] + Rmath_jll v0.5.1+0 [56f22d72] + Artifacts v1.11.0 [2a0f44e3] + Base64 v1.11.0 [ade2ca70] + Dates v1.11.0 [8ba89e20] + Distributed v1.11.0 [9fa8497b] + Future v1.11.0 [b77e0a4c] + InteractiveUtils v1.11.0 [dc6e5ff7] + JuliaSyntaxHighlighting v1.12.0 [76f85450] + LibGit2 v1.11.0 [8f399da3] + Libdl v1.11.0 [37e2e46d] + LinearAlgebra v1.11.0 [d6f4376e] + Markdown v1.11.0 [ca575930] + NetworkOptions v1.2.0 [de0858da] + Printf v1.11.0 [9a3f8284] + Random v1.11.0 [ea8e919c] + SHA v0.7.0 [9e88b42a] + Serialization v1.11.0 [6462fe0b] + Sockets v1.11.0 [2f01184e] + SparseArrays v1.12.0 [f489334b] + StyledStrings v1.11.0 [4607b0f0] + SuiteSparse [fa267f1f] + TOML v1.0.3 [cf7118a7] + UUIDs v1.11.0 [4ec0a83e] + Unicode v1.11.0 [e66e0078] + CompilerSupportLibraries_jll v1.2.0+0 [e37daf67] + LibGit2_jll v1.8.0+0 [29816b5a] + LibSSH2_jll v1.11.0+1 [c8ffd9c3] + MbedTLS_jll v2.28.6+1 [4536629a] + OpenBLAS_jll v0.3.28+3 [05823500] + OpenLibm_jll v0.8.1+3 [bea87d4a] + SuiteSparse_jll v7.8.0+1 [8e850b90] + libblastrampoline_jll v5.11.2+0 Installation completed after 4.15s ################################################################################ # Precompilation # Precompiling PkgEval dependencies... Precompiling package dependencies... Precompilation completed after 97.84s ################################################################################ # Testing # Testing StateSpaceModels Status `/tmp/jl_xoZeDN/Project.toml` [336ed68f] CSV v0.10.15 [a93c6f00] DataFrames v1.7.0 [31c24e10] Distributions v0.25.118 [99c1a7ee] MatrixEquations v2.4.3 [429524aa] Optim v1.11.0 [bac558e1] OrderedCollections v1.8.0 [f27b6e38] Polynomials v4.0.19 [3cdcf5f2] RecipesBase v1.3.4 [42fb36cb] SeasonalTrendLoess v0.1.0 [1277b4bf] ShiftedArrays v2.0.0 [99342f36] StateSpaceModels v0.7.0 [10745b16] Statistics v1.11.1 [2913bbd2] StatsBase v0.34.4 [37e2e46d] LinearAlgebra v1.11.0 [de0858da] Printf v1.11.0 [9a3f8284] Random v1.11.0 [2f01184e] SparseArrays v1.12.0 [8dfed614] Test v1.11.0 Status `/tmp/jl_xoZeDN/Manifest.toml` [47edcb42] ADTypes v1.14.0 [79e6a3ab] Adapt v4.3.0 [66dad0bd] AliasTables v1.1.3 [4fba245c] ArrayInterface v7.18.0 [336ed68f] CSV v0.10.15 [944b1d66] CodecZlib v0.7.8 [bbf7d656] CommonSubexpressions v0.3.1 [34da2185] Compat v4.16.0 [187b0558] ConstructionBase v1.5.8 [a8cc5b0e] Crayons v4.1.1 [9a962f9c] DataAPI v1.16.0 [a93c6f00] DataFrames v1.7.0 [864edb3b] DataStructures v0.18.22 [e2d170a0] DataValueInterfaces v1.0.0 [163ba53b] DiffResults v1.1.0 [b552c78f] DiffRules v1.15.1 [a0c0ee7d] DifferentiationInterface v0.6.48 [31c24e10] Distributions v0.25.118 [ffbed154] DocStringExtensions v0.9.3 [48062228] FilePathsBase v0.9.24 [1a297f60] FillArrays v1.13.0 [6a86dc24] FiniteDiff v2.27.0 [f6369f11] ForwardDiff v0.10.38 [34004b35] HypergeometricFunctions v0.3.28 [842dd82b] InlineStrings v1.4.3 [41ab1584] InvertedIndices v1.3.1 [92d709cd] IrrationalConstants v0.2.4 [82899510] IteratorInterfaceExtensions v1.0.0 [692b3bcd] JLLWrappers v1.7.0 [b964fa9f] LaTeXStrings v1.4.0 [d3d80556] LineSearches v7.3.0 [7a12625a] LinearMaps v3.11.4 [2ab3a3ac] LogExpFunctions v0.3.29 [1914dd2f] MacroTools v0.5.15 [99c1a7ee] MatrixEquations v2.4.3 [e1d29d7a] Missings v1.2.0 [d41bc354] NLSolversBase v7.9.0 [77ba4419] NaNMath v1.1.2 [429524aa] Optim v1.11.0 [bac558e1] OrderedCollections v1.8.0 [90014a1f] PDMats v0.11.32 [d96e819e] Parameters v0.12.3 [69de0a69] Parsers v2.8.1 [f27b6e38] Polynomials v4.0.19 [2dfb63ee] PooledArrays v1.4.3 [85a6dd25] PositiveFactorizations v0.2.4 [aea7be01] PrecompileTools v1.2.1 [21216c6a] Preferences v1.4.3 [08abe8d2] PrettyTables v2.4.0 [43287f4e] PtrArrays v1.3.0 [1fd47b50] QuadGK v2.11.2 [3cdcf5f2] RecipesBase v1.3.4 [189a3867] Reexport v1.2.2 [ae029012] Requires v1.3.1 [79098fc4] Rmath v0.8.0 [42fb36cb] SeasonalTrendLoess v0.1.0 [91c51154] SentinelArrays v1.4.8 [efcf1570] Setfield v1.1.2 [1277b4bf] ShiftedArrays v2.0.0 [a2af1166] SortingAlgorithms v1.2.1 [276daf66] SpecialFunctions v2.5.0 [99342f36] StateSpaceModels v0.7.0 [1e83bf80] StaticArraysCore v1.4.3 [10745b16] Statistics v1.11.1 [82ae8749] StatsAPI v1.7.0 [2913bbd2] StatsBase v0.34.4 [4c63d2b9] StatsFuns v1.3.2 [892a3eda] StringManipulation v0.4.1 [3783bdb8] TableTraits v1.0.1 [bd369af6] Tables v1.12.0 [3bb67fe8] TranscodingStreams v0.11.3 [3a884ed6] UnPack v1.0.2 [ea10d353] WeakRefStrings v1.4.2 [76eceee3] WorkerUtilities v1.6.1 [efe28fd5] OpenSpecFun_jll v0.5.6+0 [f50d1b31] Rmath_jll v0.5.1+0 [56f22d72] Artifacts v1.11.0 [2a0f44e3] Base64 v1.11.0 [ade2ca70] Dates v1.11.0 [8ba89e20] Distributed v1.11.0 [9fa8497b] Future v1.11.0 [b77e0a4c] InteractiveUtils v1.11.0 [dc6e5ff7] JuliaSyntaxHighlighting v1.12.0 [76f85450] LibGit2 v1.11.0 [8f399da3] Libdl v1.11.0 [37e2e46d] LinearAlgebra v1.11.0 [56ddb016] Logging v1.11.0 [d6f4376e] Markdown v1.11.0 [a63ad114] Mmap v1.11.0 [ca575930] NetworkOptions v1.2.0 [de0858da] Printf v1.11.0 [9a3f8284] Random v1.11.0 [ea8e919c] SHA v0.7.0 [9e88b42a] Serialization v1.11.0 [6462fe0b] Sockets v1.11.0 [2f01184e] SparseArrays v1.12.0 [f489334b] StyledStrings v1.11.0 [4607b0f0] SuiteSparse [fa267f1f] TOML v1.0.3 [8dfed614] Test v1.11.0 [cf7118a7] UUIDs v1.11.0 [4ec0a83e] Unicode v1.11.0 [e66e0078] CompilerSupportLibraries_jll v1.2.0+0 [e37daf67] LibGit2_jll v1.8.0+0 [29816b5a] LibSSH2_jll v1.11.0+1 [c8ffd9c3] MbedTLS_jll v2.28.6+1 [4536629a] OpenBLAS_jll v0.3.28+3 [05823500] OpenLibm_jll v0.8.1+3 [bea87d4a] SuiteSparse_jll v7.8.0+1 [83775a58] Zlib_jll v1.3.1+1 [8e850b90] libblastrampoline_jll v5.11.2+0 Testing Running tests... Test Summary: | Pass Total Time Linear systems | 10 10 12.2s LocalLevel Results =============================================================== Model: LocalLevel Number of observations: 100 Number of unknown parameters: 2 Log-likelihood: -18.1700 AIC: 40.3400 AICc: 40.4637 BIC: 45.5503 --------------------------------------------------------------- Parameter Estimate Std.Error z stat p-value sigma2_ε 0.0807 0.0203 3.9767 0.0000 sigma2_η 0.0000 0.0079 0.0000 0.9998 SARIMA(1, 0, 0)x(0, 0, 0, 0) with zero mean Test Summary: | Total Time Prints | 0 29.7s Test Summary: | Pass Total Time LocalLevel | 142 142 1m13.0s Test Summary: | Pass Total Time Local Linear Trend Model | 4 4 9.4s Test Summary: | Pass Total Time Local Level With Cycle Model | 7 7 2.6s ┌ Warning: The optimization process converged but the Hessian matrix is not positive definite. This means that StateSpaceModels.jl cannot estimate the distribution of the hyperparameters If you are interested in estimates of the distribution of ther hyperparameters we advise you to change the optimization algorithm by using the kwarg fit(...; optimizer = Optimizer(StateSpaceModels.Optim.THE_METHOD_OF_YOUR_CHOICE())) The list of possible algorithms can be found on this link https://julianlsolvers.github.io/Optim.jl/stable/# otherwise you can simply skip this proccess by using fit(...; save_hyperparameter_distribution=false) └ @ StateSpaceModels ~/.julia/packages/StateSpaceModels/WqsHx/src/fit.jl:57 Test Summary: | Pass Total Time Local Level With Explanatory Model | 2 2 9.5s ┌ Error: Numerical error when applying Kalman filter equations. └ @ StateSpaceModels ~/.julia/packages/StateSpaceModels/WqsHx/src/filters/univariate_kalman_filter.jl:330 ┌ Error: Numerical error when applying Kalman filter equations. └ @ StateSpaceModels ~/.julia/packages/StateSpaceModels/WqsHx/src/filters/univariate_kalman_filter.jl:330 Test Summary: | Pass Broken Total Time Basic Structural Model | 26 2 28 23.1s ┌ Warning: The optimization process converged but the Hessian matrix is not positive definite. This means that StateSpaceModels.jl cannot estimate the distribution of the hyperparameters If you are interested in estimates of the distribution of ther hyperparameters we advise you to change the optimization algorithm by using the kwarg fit(...; optimizer = Optimizer(StateSpaceModels.Optim.THE_METHOD_OF_YOUR_CHOICE())) The list of possible algorithms can be found on this link https://julianlsolvers.github.io/Optim.jl/stable/# otherwise you can simply skip this proccess by using fit(...; save_hyperparameter_distribution=false) └ @ StateSpaceModels ~/.julia/packages/StateSpaceModels/WqsHx/src/fit.jl:57 ┌ Warning: The optimization process converged but the Hessian matrix is not positive definite. This means that StateSpaceModels.jl cannot estimate the distribution of the hyperparameters If you are interested in estimates of the distribution of ther hyperparameters we advise you to change the optimization algorithm by using the kwarg fit(...; optimizer = Optimizer(StateSpaceModels.Optim.THE_METHOD_OF_YOUR_CHOICE())) The list of possible algorithms can be found on this link https://julianlsolvers.github.io/Optim.jl/stable/# otherwise you can simply skip this proccess by using fit(...; save_hyperparameter_distribution=false) └ @ StateSpaceModels ~/.julia/packages/StateSpaceModels/WqsHx/src/fit.jl:57 Test Summary: | Pass Total Time Basic Structural With Explanatory Model | 23 23 10.1s ┌ Warning: The optimization process converged but the Hessian matrix is not positive definite. This means that StateSpaceModels.jl cannot estimate the distribution of the hyperparameters If you are interested in estimates of the distribution of ther hyperparameters we advise you to change the optimization algorithm by using the kwarg fit(...; optimizer = Optimizer(StateSpaceModels.Optim.THE_METHOD_OF_YOUR_CHOICE())) The list of possible algorithms can be found on this link https://julianlsolvers.github.io/Optim.jl/stable/# otherwise you can simply skip this proccess by using fit(...; save_hyperparameter_distribution=false) └ @ StateSpaceModels ~/.julia/packages/StateSpaceModels/WqsHx/src/fit.jl:57 Test Summary: | Pass Total Time Multivariate Basic Structural Model | 11 11 57.8s ┌ Warning: The optimization process converged but the Hessian matrix is not positive definite. This means that StateSpaceModels.jl cannot estimate the distribution of the hyperparameters If you are interested in estimates of the distribution of ther hyperparameters we advise you to change the optimization algorithm by using the kwarg fit(...; optimizer = Optimizer(StateSpaceModels.Optim.THE_METHOD_OF_YOUR_CHOICE())) The list of possible algorithms can be found on this link https://julianlsolvers.github.io/Optim.jl/stable/# otherwise you can simply skip this proccess by using fit(...; save_hyperparameter_distribution=false) └ @ StateSpaceModels ~/.julia/packages/StateSpaceModels/WqsHx/src/fit.jl:57 Model specification Selection metric SARIMA(2, 1, 2)x(0, 0, 0, 0) with non-zero mean : 1273.7583242115427 SARIMA(1, 1, 0)x(0, 0, 0, 0) with non-zero mean : 1283.7664413377545 SARIMA(0, 1, 1)x(0, 0, 0, 0) with non-zero mean : 1271.3254406717435 SARIMA(0, 1, 0)x(0, 0, 0, 0) with non-zero mean : 1298.82084537551 Search iteration complete: Current best is SARIMA(0, 1, 1)x(0, 0, 0, 0) with non-zero mean SARIMA(0, 1, 1)x(0, 0, 0, 0) with non-zero mean : 1271.3254406717435 SARIMA(0, 1, 2)x(0, 0, 0, 0) with non-zero mean : 1270.3396088573086 SARIMA(1, 1, 1)x(0, 0, 0, 0) with non-zero mean : 1269.6396855785115 SARIMA(1, 1, 2)x(0, 0, 0, 0) with non-zero mean : 1271.5231847782368 SARIMA(0, 1, 1)x(0, 0, 0, 0) with zero mean : 1269.1991241909998 Search iteration complete: Current best is SARIMA(0, 1, 1)x(0, 0, 0, 0) with zero mean SARIMA(0, 1, 1)x(0, 0, 0, 0) with zero mean : 1269.1991241909998 SARIMA(0, 1, 0)x(0, 0, 0, 0) with zero mean : 1296.7379503618345 SARIMA(0, 1, 2)x(0, 0, 0, 0) with zero mean : 1268.1686240195545 SARIMA(1, 1, 0)x(0, 0, 0, 0) with zero mean : 1281.6399976481518 SARIMA(1, 1, 1)x(0, 0, 0, 0) with zero mean : 1267.468697488957 SARIMA(1, 1, 2)x(0, 0, 0, 0) with zero mean : 1269.3060098057128 Search iteration complete: Current best is SARIMA(1, 1, 1)x(0, 0, 0, 0) with zero mean SARIMA(1, 1, 1)x(0, 0, 0, 0) with zero mean : 1267.468697488957 SARIMA(2, 1, 0)x(0, 0, 0, 0) with zero mean : 1277.6748597747253 SARIMA(2, 1, 1)x(0, 0, 0, 0) with zero mean : 1269.284512213182 SARIMA(2, 1, 2)x(0, 0, 0, 0) with zero mean : 1271.629037272645 Search iteration complete: Current best is SARIMA(1, 1, 1)x(0, 0, 0, 0) with zero mean ┌ Error: Numerical error when applying Kalman filter equations. └ @ StateSpaceModels ~/.julia/packages/StateSpaceModels/WqsHx/src/filters/univariate_kalman_filter.jl:330 ┌ Error: Numerical error when applying Kalman filter equations. └ @ StateSpaceModels ~/.julia/packages/StateSpaceModels/WqsHx/src/filters/univariate_kalman_filter.jl:330 ┌ Error: Numerical error when applying Kalman filter equations. └ @ StateSpaceModels ~/.julia/packages/StateSpaceModels/WqsHx/src/filters/univariate_kalman_filter.jl:330 ┌ Error: Numerical error when applying Kalman filter equations. └ @ StateSpaceModels ~/.julia/packages/StateSpaceModels/WqsHx/src/filters/univariate_kalman_filter.jl:330 ┌ Error: Numerical error when applying Kalman filter equations. └ @ StateSpaceModels ~/.julia/packages/StateSpaceModels/WqsHx/src/filters/univariate_kalman_filter.jl:330 Model specification Selection metric ┌ Error: Numerical error when applying Kalman filter equations. └ @ StateSpaceModels ~/.julia/packages/StateSpaceModels/WqsHx/src/filters/univariate_kalman_filter.jl:330 SARIMA(2, 0, 2)x(1, 1, 1, 12) with non-zero mean - diverged ┌ Error: Numerical error when applying Kalman filter equations. └ @ StateSpaceModels ~/.julia/packages/StateSpaceModels/WqsHx/src/filters/univariate_kalman_filter.jl:330 SARIMA(1, 0, 0)x(1, 1, 0, 12) with non-zero mean - diverged SARIMA(0, 0, 1)x(0, 1, 1, 12) with non-zero mean : -275.9860348257948 SARIMA(0, 0, 0)x(0, 1, 0, 12) with non-zero mean : -150.6710081689509 Search iteration complete: Current best is SARIMA(0, 0, 1)x(0, 1, 1, 12) with non-zero mean SARIMA(0, 0, 1)x(0, 1, 1, 12) with non-zero mean : -275.9860348257948 SARIMA(0, 0, 0)x(0, 1, 1, 12) with non-zero mean : -195.26147815976276 SARIMA(0, 0, 2)x(0, 1, 1, 12) with non-zero mean : -342.1883333468966 SARIMA(1, 0, 0)x(0, 1, 1, 12) with non-zero mean : -465.3404134621623 SARIMA(1, 0, 1)x(0, 1, 1, 12) with non-zero mean : -480.78161068268594 SARIMA(1, 0, 2)x(0, 1, 1, 12) with non-zero mean : -478.79090492199816 SARIMA(0, 0, 1)x(0, 1, 0, 12) with non-zero mean : -257.211083917065 SARIMA(0, 0, 1)x(0, 1, 2, 12) with non-zero mean : -292.80147326677144 SARIMA(0, 0, 1)x(1, 1, 0, 12) with non-zero mean : -297.97641916237393 SARIMA(0, 0, 1)x(1, 1, 1, 12) with non-zero mean : -351.91186272812917 SARIMA(0, 0, 1)x(1, 1, 2, 12) with non-zero mean : -364.3283298823662 SARIMA(0, 0, 1)x(0, 1, 1, 12) with zero mean : -278.10237618630487 Search iteration complete: Current best is SARIMA(1, 0, 1)x(0, 1, 1, 12) with non-zero mean ┌ Error: Numerical error when applying Kalman filter equations. └ @ StateSpaceModels ~/.julia/packages/StateSpaceModels/WqsHx/src/filters/univariate_kalman_filter.jl:330 SARIMA(1, 0, 1)x(1, 1, 0, 12) with non-zero mean - diverged ┌ Error: Numerical error when applying Kalman filter equations. └ @ StateSpaceModels ~/.julia/packages/StateSpaceModels/WqsHx/src/filters/univariate_kalman_filter.jl:330 SARIMA(1, 0, 1)x(1, 1, 1, 12) with non-zero mean - diverged ┌ Error: Numerical error when applying Kalman filter equations. └ @ StateSpaceModels ~/.julia/packages/StateSpaceModels/WqsHx/src/filters/univariate_kalman_filter.jl:330 SARIMA(1, 0, 1)x(1, 1, 2, 12) with non-zero mean - diverged SARIMA(1, 0, 1)x(0, 1, 1, 12) with non-zero mean : -480.78161068268594 SARIMA(2, 0, 0)x(0, 1, 1, 12) with non-zero mean : -478.98468684421044 SARIMA(2, 0, 1)x(0, 1, 1, 12) with non-zero mean : -479.03369324182364 SARIMA(2, 0, 2)x(0, 1, 1, 12) with non-zero mean : -477.34304772665365 SARIMA(1, 0, 1)x(0, 1, 0, 12) with non-zero mean : -449.08155334750194 SARIMA(1, 0, 1)x(0, 1, 2, 12) with non-zero mean : -479.1612243009124 SARIMA(1, 0, 1)x(0, 1, 1, 12) with zero mean : -482.9286059874388 Search iteration complete: Current best is SARIMA(1, 0, 1)x(0, 1, 1, 12) with zero mean ┌ Error: Numerical error when applying Kalman filter equations. └ @ StateSpaceModels ~/.julia/packages/StateSpaceModels/WqsHx/src/filters/univariate_kalman_filter.jl:330 SARIMA(1, 0, 1)x(1, 1, 0, 12) with zero mean - diverged ┌ Error: Numerical error when applying Kalman filter equations. └ @ StateSpaceModels ~/.julia/packages/StateSpaceModels/WqsHx/src/filters/univariate_kalman_filter.jl:330 SARIMA(1, 0, 1)x(1, 1, 1, 12) with zero mean - diverged ┌ Error: Numerical error when applying Kalman filter equations. └ @ StateSpaceModels ~/.julia/packages/StateSpaceModels/WqsHx/src/filters/univariate_kalman_filter.jl:330 SARIMA(1, 0, 1)x(1, 1, 2, 12) with zero mean - diverged SARIMA(1, 0, 1)x(0, 1, 1, 12) with zero mean : -482.9286059874388 SARIMA(0, 0, 0)x(0, 1, 1, 12) with zero mean : -197.34780037734544 SARIMA(0, 0, 2)x(0, 1, 1, 12) with zero mean : -344.33534394701775 SARIMA(1, 0, 0)x(0, 1, 1, 12) with zero mean : -467.456831767822 SARIMA(1, 0, 2)x(0, 1, 1, 12) with zero mean : -480.9692540174278 SARIMA(2, 0, 0)x(0, 1, 1, 12) with zero mean : -481.13172291490906 SARIMA(2, 0, 1)x(0, 1, 1, 12) with zero mean : -481.21204781806443 SARIMA(2, 0, 2)x(0, 1, 1, 12) with zero mean : -479.5839219195021 SARIMA(1, 0, 1)x(0, 1, 0, 12) with zero mean : -451.1978945613141 SARIMA(1, 0, 1)x(0, 1, 2, 12) with zero mean : -481.3395814396955 Search iteration complete: Current best is SARIMA(1, 0, 1)x(0, 1, 1, 12) with zero mean Test Summary: | Pass Broken Total Time SARIMA | 44 2 46 5m04.7s Test Summary: | Pass Total Time UnobservedComponents | 13 13 6.9s ┌ Warning: The optimization process converged but the Hessian matrix is not positive definite. This means that StateSpaceModels.jl cannot estimate the distribution of the hyperparameters If you are interested in estimates of the distribution of ther hyperparameters we advise you to change the optimization algorithm by using the kwarg fit(...; optimizer = Optimizer(StateSpaceModels.Optim.THE_METHOD_OF_YOUR_CHOICE())) The list of possible algorithms can be found on this link https://julianlsolvers.github.io/Optim.jl/stable/# otherwise you can simply skip this proccess by using fit(...; save_hyperparameter_distribution=false) └ @ StateSpaceModels ~/.julia/packages/StateSpaceModels/WqsHx/src/fit.jl:57 ┌ Warning: The optimization process converged but the Hessian matrix is not positive definite. This means that StateSpaceModels.jl cannot estimate the distribution of the hyperparameters If you are interested in estimates of the distribution of ther hyperparameters we advise you to change the optimization algorithm by using the kwarg fit(...; optimizer = Optimizer(StateSpaceModels.Optim.THE_METHOD_OF_YOUR_CHOICE())) The list of possible algorithms can be found on this link https://julianlsolvers.github.io/Optim.jl/stable/# otherwise you can simply skip this proccess by using fit(...; save_hyperparameter_distribution=false) └ @ StateSpaceModels ~/.julia/packages/StateSpaceModels/WqsHx/src/fit.jl:57 ┌ Warning: The optimization process converged but the Hessian matrix is not positive definite. This means that StateSpaceModels.jl cannot estimate the distribution of the hyperparameters If you are interested in estimates of the distribution of ther hyperparameters we advise you to change the optimization algorithm by using the kwarg fit(...; optimizer = Optimizer(StateSpaceModels.Optim.THE_METHOD_OF_YOUR_CHOICE())) The list of possible algorithms can be found on this link https://julianlsolvers.github.io/Optim.jl/stable/# otherwise you can simply skip this proccess by using fit(...; save_hyperparameter_distribution=false) └ @ StateSpaceModels ~/.julia/packages/StateSpaceModels/WqsHx/src/fit.jl:57 Test Summary: | Pass Total Time UnobservedComponentsExplanatory | 29 29 11.3s Test Summary: | Pass Total Time Regression | 51 51 4.9s ┌ Warning: The optimization process converged but the Hessian matrix is not positive definite. This means that StateSpaceModels.jl cannot estimate the distribution of the hyperparameters If you are interested in estimates of the distribution of ther hyperparameters we advise you to change the optimization algorithm by using the kwarg fit(...; optimizer = Optimizer(StateSpaceModels.Optim.THE_METHOD_OF_YOUR_CHOICE())) The list of possible algorithms can be found on this link https://julianlsolvers.github.io/Optim.jl/stable/# otherwise you can simply skip this proccess by using fit(...; save_hyperparameter_distribution=false) └ @ StateSpaceModels ~/.julia/packages/StateSpaceModels/WqsHx/src/fit.jl:57 ┌ Warning: The optimization process converged but the Hessian matrix is not positive definite. This means that StateSpaceModels.jl cannot estimate the distribution of the hyperparameters If you are interested in estimates of the distribution of ther hyperparameters we advise you to change the optimization algorithm by using the kwarg fit(...; optimizer = Optimizer(StateSpaceModels.Optim.THE_METHOD_OF_YOUR_CHOICE())) The list of possible algorithms can be found on this link https://julianlsolvers.github.io/Optim.jl/stable/# otherwise you can simply skip this proccess by using fit(...; save_hyperparameter_distribution=false) └ @ StateSpaceModels ~/.julia/packages/StateSpaceModels/WqsHx/src/fit.jl:57 ┌ Warning: The optimization process converged but the Hessian matrix is not positive definite. This means that StateSpaceModels.jl cannot estimate the distribution of the hyperparameters If you are interested in estimates of the distribution of ther hyperparameters we advise you to change the optimization algorithm by using the kwarg fit(...; optimizer = Optimizer(StateSpaceModels.Optim.THE_METHOD_OF_YOUR_CHOICE())) The list of possible algorithms can be found on this link https://julianlsolvers.github.io/Optim.jl/stable/# otherwise you can simply skip this proccess by using fit(...; save_hyperparameter_distribution=false) └ @ StateSpaceModels ~/.julia/packages/StateSpaceModels/WqsHx/src/fit.jl:57 ┌ Warning: The optimization process converged but the Hessian matrix is not positive definite. This means that StateSpaceModels.jl cannot estimate the distribution of the hyperparameters If you are interested in estimates of the distribution of ther hyperparameters we advise you to change the optimization algorithm by using the kwarg fit(...; optimizer = Optimizer(StateSpaceModels.Optim.THE_METHOD_OF_YOUR_CHOICE())) The list of possible algorithms can be found on this link https://julianlsolvers.github.io/Optim.jl/stable/# otherwise you can simply skip this proccess by using fit(...; save_hyperparameter_distribution=false) └ @ StateSpaceModels ~/.julia/packages/StateSpaceModels/WqsHx/src/fit.jl:57 ┌ Warning: The optimization process converged but the Hessian matrix is not positive definite. This means that StateSpaceModels.jl cannot estimate the distribution of the hyperparameters If you are interested in estimates of the distribution of ther hyperparameters we advise you to change the optimization algorithm by using the kwarg fit(...; optimizer = Optimizer(StateSpaceModels.Optim.THE_METHOD_OF_YOUR_CHOICE())) The list of possible algorithms can be found on this link https://julianlsolvers.github.io/Optim.jl/stable/# otherwise you can simply skip this proccess by using fit(...; save_hyperparameter_distribution=false) └ @ StateSpaceModels ~/.julia/packages/StateSpaceModels/WqsHx/src/fit.jl:57 Test Summary: | Pass Total Time ExponentialSmoothing | 14 14 43.3s CrossValidation: step 1 of 20 CrossValidation: step 2 of 20 CrossValidation: step 3 of 20 CrossValidation: step 4 of 20 CrossValidation: step 5 of 20 CrossValidation: step 6 of 20 CrossValidation: step 7 of 20 CrossValidation: step 8 of 20 CrossValidation: step 9 of 20 CrossValidation: step 10 of 20 CrossValidation: step 11 of 20 CrossValidation: step 12 of 20 CrossValidation: step 13 of 20 CrossValidation: step 14 of 20 CrossValidation: step 15 of 20 CrossValidation: step 16 of 20 CrossValidation: step 17 of 20 CrossValidation: step 18 of 20 CrossValidation: step 19 of 20 CrossValidation: step 20 of 20 Test Summary: | Pass Total Time Naive models | 13 13 6.3s Test Summary: | Pass Total Time DAR Model | 4 4 9.8s Test Summary: | Pass Total Time Vehicle tracking | 1 1 1.0s Test Summary: | Pass Total Time Visualization Forecast | 4 4 2.2s ┌ Warning: The optimization process converged but the Hessian matrix is not positive definite. This means that StateSpaceModels.jl cannot estimate the distribution of the hyperparameters If you are interested in estimates of the distribution of ther hyperparameters we advise you to change the optimization algorithm by using the kwarg fit(...; optimizer = Optimizer(StateSpaceModels.Optim.THE_METHOD_OF_YOUR_CHOICE())) The list of possible algorithms can be found on this link https://julianlsolvers.github.io/Optim.jl/stable/# otherwise you can simply skip this proccess by using fit(...; save_hyperparameter_distribution=false) └ @ StateSpaceModels ~/.julia/packages/StateSpaceModels/WqsHx/src/fit.jl:57 Test Summary: | Pass Total Time Visualization Unobserved Components | 8 8 14.4s CrossValidation: step 1 of 10 CrossValidation: step 2 of 10 CrossValidation: step 3 of 10 CrossValidation: step 4 of 10 CrossValidation: step 5 of 10 CrossValidation: step 6 of 10 CrossValidation: step 7 of 10 CrossValidation: step 8 of 10 CrossValidation: step 9 of 10 CrossValidation: step 10 of 10 Test Summary: | Pass Total Time Visualization Forecast | 1 1 12.3s Test Summary: | Pass Total Time Visualization Diagnostics | 4 4 0.7s Testing StateSpaceModels tests passed Testing completed after 918.69s PkgEval succeeded after 1051.63s