Package evaluation of Baytes on Julia 1.10.9 (96dc2d8c45*) started at 2025-06-06T18:40:23.292 ################################################################################ # Set-up # Installing PkgEval dependencies (TestEnv)... Set-up completed after 5.46s ################################################################################ # Installation # Installing Baytes... Resolving package versions... Updating `~/.julia/environments/v1.10/Project.toml` [72ddfcfc] + Baytes v0.3.16 Updating `~/.julia/environments/v1.10/Manifest.toml` [621f4979] + AbstractFFTs v1.5.0 [7d9f7c33] + Accessors v0.1.42 [79e6a3ab] + Adapt v4.3.0 [66dad0bd] + AliasTables v1.1.3 [dce04be8] + ArgCheck v2.5.0 [72ddfcfc] + Baytes v0.3.16 [e5a8efeb] + BaytesCore v0.2.0 [12a76ff9] + BaytesDiff v0.3.1 [26b78818] + BaytesFilters v0.3.6 [8e6e46a0] + BaytesMCMC v0.3.4 [c78c806d] + BaytesOptim v0.1.9 [c4a8eb41] + BaytesPMCMC v0.3.3 [2428e3a5] + BaytesSMC v0.3.6 ⌅ [76274a88] + Bijectors v0.13.18 [082447d4] + ChainRules v1.72.4 [d360d2e6] + ChainRulesCore v1.25.1 [9e997f8a] + ChangesOfVariables v0.1.10 [38540f10] + CommonSolve v0.2.4 [34da2185] + Compat v4.16.0 [a33af91c] + CompositionsBase v0.1.2 [187b0558] + ConstructionBase v1.5.8 [a8cc5b0e] + Crayons v4.1.1 [9a962f9c] + DataAPI v1.16.0 [864edb3b] + DataStructures v0.18.22 [e2d170a0] + DataValueInterfaces v1.0.0 [31c24e10] + Distributions v0.25.120 [ffbed154] + DocStringExtensions v0.9.4 [fdbdab4c] + ElasticArrays v1.2.12 [5789e2e9] + FileIO v1.17.0 [1a297f60] + FillArrays v1.13.0 ⌅ [d9f16b24] + Functors v0.4.12 [46192b85] + GPUArraysCore v0.2.0 [34004b35] + HypergeometricFunctions v0.3.28 [3587e190] + InverseFunctions v0.1.17 [92d709cd] + IrrationalConstants v0.2.4 [82899510] + IteratorInterfaceExtensions v1.0.0 ⌅ [033835bb] + JLD2 v0.4.54 [692b3bcd] + JLLWrappers v1.7.0 [b964fa9f] + LaTeXStrings v1.4.0 [2ab3a3ac] + LogExpFunctions v0.3.29 [be115224] + MCMCDiagnosticTools v0.3.14 [e80e1ace] + MLJModelInterface v1.11.1 [1914dd2f] + MacroTools v0.5.16 [dbb5928d] + MappedArrays v0.4.2 [e1d29d7a] + Missings v1.2.0 [44c54197] + ModelWrappers v0.5.6 [bac558e1] + OrderedCollections v1.8.1 [90014a1f] + PDMats v0.11.35 ⌅ [aea7be01] + PrecompileTools v1.2.1 [21216c6a] + Preferences v1.4.3 [08abe8d2] + PrettyTables v2.4.0 [92933f4c] + ProgressMeter v1.10.4 [43287f4e] + PtrArrays v1.3.0 [1fd47b50] + QuadGK v2.11.2 [c1ae055f] + RealDot v0.1.0 [189a3867] + Reexport v1.2.2 [ae029012] + Requires v1.3.1 [79098fc4] + Rmath v0.8.0 [f2b01f46] + Roots v2.2.7 [30f210dd] + ScientificTypesBase v3.0.0 [ce78b400] + SimpleUnPack v1.1.0 [a2af1166] + SortingAlgorithms v1.2.1 [dc90abb0] + SparseInverseSubset v0.1.2 [276daf66] + SpecialFunctions v2.5.1 [64bff920] + StatisticalTraits v3.4.0 [82ae8749] + StatsAPI v1.7.1 [2913bbd2] + StatsBase v0.34.5 [4c63d2b9] + StatsFuns v1.5.0 [892a3eda] + StringManipulation v0.4.1 [09ab397b] + StructArrays v0.7.1 [3783bdb8] + TableTraits v1.0.1 [bd369af6] + Tables v1.12.1 [3bb67fe8] + TranscodingStreams v0.11.3 [efe28fd5] + OpenSpecFun_jll v0.5.6+0 [f50d1b31] + Rmath_jll v0.5.1+0 [0dad84c5] + ArgTools v1.1.1 [56f22d72] + Artifacts [2a0f44e3] + Base64 [ade2ca70] + Dates [8ba89e20] + Distributed [f43a241f] + Downloads v1.6.0 [7b1f6079] + FileWatching [b77e0a4c] + InteractiveUtils [b27032c2] + LibCURL v0.6.4 [76f85450] + LibGit2 [8f399da3] + Libdl [37e2e46d] + LinearAlgebra [56ddb016] + Logging [d6f4376e] + Markdown [a63ad114] + Mmap [ca575930] + NetworkOptions v1.2.0 [44cfe95a] + Pkg v1.10.0 [de0858da] + Printf [3fa0cd96] + REPL [9a3f8284] + Random [ea8e919c] + SHA v0.7.0 [9e88b42a] + Serialization [6462fe0b] + Sockets [2f01184e] + SparseArrays v1.10.0 [10745b16] + Statistics v1.10.0 [4607b0f0] + SuiteSparse [fa267f1f] + TOML v1.0.3 [a4e569a6] + Tar v1.10.0 [cf7118a7] + UUIDs [4ec0a83e] + Unicode [e66e0078] + CompilerSupportLibraries_jll v1.1.1+0 [deac9b47] + LibCURL_jll v8.4.0+0 [e37daf67] + LibGit2_jll v1.6.4+0 [29816b5a] + LibSSH2_jll v1.11.0+1 [c8ffd9c3] + MbedTLS_jll v2.28.2+1 [14a3606d] + MozillaCACerts_jll v2023.1.10 [4536629a] + OpenBLAS_jll v0.3.23+4 [05823500] + OpenLibm_jll v0.8.5+0 [bea87d4a] + SuiteSparse_jll v7.2.1+1 [83775a58] + Zlib_jll v1.2.13+1 [8e850b90] + libblastrampoline_jll v5.11.0+0 [8e850ede] + nghttp2_jll v1.52.0+1 [3f19e933] + p7zip_jll v17.4.0+2 Info Packages marked with ⌅ have new versions available but compatibility constraints restrict them from upgrading. To see why use `status --outdated -m` Installation completed after 10.11s ################################################################################ # Precompilation # Precompiling PkgEval dependencies... Precompiling package dependencies... Precompilation completed after 64.11s ################################################################################ # Testing # Testing Baytes Status `/tmp/jl_158nul/Project.toml` [dce04be8] ArgCheck v2.5.0 [72ddfcfc] Baytes v0.3.16 [e5a8efeb] BaytesCore v0.2.0 [12a76ff9] BaytesDiff v0.3.1 [26b78818] BaytesFilters v0.3.6 [8e6e46a0] BaytesMCMC v0.3.4 [c78c806d] BaytesOptim v0.1.9 [c4a8eb41] BaytesPMCMC v0.3.3 [2428e3a5] BaytesSMC v0.3.6 [31c24e10] Distributions v0.25.120 [ffbed154] DocStringExtensions v0.9.4 ⌃ [f6369f11] ForwardDiff v0.10.38 ⌅ [033835bb] JLD2 v0.4.54 [be115224] MCMCDiagnosticTools v0.3.14 [44c54197] ModelWrappers v0.5.6 [d41bc354] NLSolversBase v7.9.1 [429524aa] Optim v1.12.0 [08abe8d2] PrettyTables v2.4.0 [92933f4c] ProgressMeter v1.10.4 [ce78b400] SimpleUnPack v1.1.0 [ade2ca70] Dates [9a3f8284] Random [10745b16] Statistics v1.10.0 [8dfed614] Test Status `/tmp/jl_158nul/Manifest.toml` [47edcb42] ADTypes v1.14.0 [621f4979] AbstractFFTs v1.5.0 [7d9f7c33] Accessors v0.1.42 [79e6a3ab] Adapt v4.3.0 [66dad0bd] AliasTables v1.1.3 [dce04be8] ArgCheck v2.5.0 [4fba245c] ArrayInterface v7.19.0 [72ddfcfc] Baytes v0.3.16 [e5a8efeb] BaytesCore v0.2.0 [12a76ff9] BaytesDiff v0.3.1 [26b78818] BaytesFilters v0.3.6 [8e6e46a0] BaytesMCMC v0.3.4 [c78c806d] BaytesOptim v0.1.9 [c4a8eb41] BaytesPMCMC v0.3.3 [2428e3a5] BaytesSMC v0.3.6 ⌅ [76274a88] Bijectors v0.13.18 [082447d4] ChainRules v1.72.4 [d360d2e6] ChainRulesCore v1.25.1 [9e997f8a] ChangesOfVariables v0.1.10 [38540f10] CommonSolve v0.2.4 [bbf7d656] CommonSubexpressions v0.3.1 [34da2185] Compat v4.16.0 [a33af91c] CompositionsBase v0.1.2 [187b0558] ConstructionBase v1.5.8 [a8cc5b0e] Crayons v4.1.1 [9a962f9c] DataAPI v1.16.0 [864edb3b] DataStructures v0.18.22 [e2d170a0] DataValueInterfaces v1.0.0 [163ba53b] DiffResults v1.1.0 [b552c78f] DiffRules v1.15.1 ⌅ [a0c0ee7d] DifferentiationInterface v0.6.54 [31c24e10] Distributions v0.25.120 [ffbed154] DocStringExtensions v0.9.4 [fdbdab4c] ElasticArrays v1.2.12 [4e289a0a] EnumX v1.0.5 [5789e2e9] FileIO v1.17.0 [1a297f60] FillArrays v1.13.0 [6a86dc24] FiniteDiff v2.27.0 ⌃ [f6369f11] ForwardDiff v0.10.38 ⌅ [d9f16b24] Functors v0.4.12 [46192b85] GPUArraysCore v0.2.0 [34004b35] HypergeometricFunctions v0.3.28 [3587e190] InverseFunctions v0.1.17 [92d709cd] IrrationalConstants v0.2.4 [82899510] IteratorInterfaceExtensions v1.0.0 ⌅ [033835bb] JLD2 v0.4.54 [692b3bcd] JLLWrappers v1.7.0 [b964fa9f] LaTeXStrings v1.4.0 [d3d80556] LineSearches v7.3.0 [2ab3a3ac] LogExpFunctions v0.3.29 [be115224] MCMCDiagnosticTools v0.3.14 [e80e1ace] MLJModelInterface v1.11.1 [1914dd2f] MacroTools v0.5.16 [dbb5928d] MappedArrays v0.4.2 [e1d29d7a] Missings v1.2.0 [44c54197] ModelWrappers v0.5.6 [d41bc354] NLSolversBase v7.9.1 [77ba4419] NaNMath v1.1.3 [429524aa] Optim v1.12.0 [bac558e1] OrderedCollections v1.8.1 [90014a1f] PDMats v0.11.35 [d96e819e] Parameters v0.12.3 [85a6dd25] PositiveFactorizations v0.2.4 ⌅ [aea7be01] PrecompileTools v1.2.1 [21216c6a] Preferences v1.4.3 [08abe8d2] PrettyTables v2.4.0 [92933f4c] ProgressMeter v1.10.4 [43287f4e] PtrArrays v1.3.0 [1fd47b50] QuadGK v2.11.2 [c1ae055f] RealDot v0.1.0 [189a3867] Reexport v1.2.2 [ae029012] Requires v1.3.1 [79098fc4] Rmath v0.8.0 [f2b01f46] Roots v2.2.7 [30f210dd] ScientificTypesBase v3.0.0 [efcf1570] Setfield v1.1.2 [ce78b400] SimpleUnPack v1.1.0 [a2af1166] SortingAlgorithms v1.2.1 [dc90abb0] SparseInverseSubset v0.1.2 [276daf66] SpecialFunctions v2.5.1 [1e83bf80] StaticArraysCore v1.4.3 [64bff920] StatisticalTraits v3.4.0 [82ae8749] StatsAPI v1.7.1 [2913bbd2] StatsBase v0.34.5 [4c63d2b9] StatsFuns v1.5.0 [892a3eda] StringManipulation v0.4.1 [09ab397b] StructArrays v0.7.1 [3783bdb8] TableTraits v1.0.1 [bd369af6] Tables v1.12.1 [3bb67fe8] TranscodingStreams v0.11.3 [3a884ed6] UnPack v1.0.2 [efe28fd5] OpenSpecFun_jll v0.5.6+0 [f50d1b31] Rmath_jll v0.5.1+0 [0dad84c5] ArgTools v1.1.1 [56f22d72] Artifacts [2a0f44e3] Base64 [ade2ca70] Dates [8ba89e20] Distributed [f43a241f] Downloads v1.6.0 [7b1f6079] FileWatching [9fa8497b] Future [b77e0a4c] InteractiveUtils [b27032c2] LibCURL v0.6.4 [76f85450] LibGit2 [8f399da3] Libdl [37e2e46d] LinearAlgebra [56ddb016] Logging [d6f4376e] Markdown [a63ad114] Mmap [ca575930] NetworkOptions v1.2.0 [44cfe95a] Pkg v1.10.0 [de0858da] Printf [3fa0cd96] REPL [9a3f8284] Random [ea8e919c] SHA v0.7.0 [9e88b42a] Serialization [6462fe0b] Sockets [2f01184e] SparseArrays v1.10.0 [10745b16] Statistics v1.10.0 [4607b0f0] SuiteSparse [fa267f1f] TOML v1.0.3 [a4e569a6] Tar v1.10.0 [8dfed614] Test [cf7118a7] UUIDs [4ec0a83e] Unicode [e66e0078] CompilerSupportLibraries_jll v1.1.1+0 [deac9b47] LibCURL_jll v8.4.0+0 [e37daf67] LibGit2_jll v1.6.4+0 [29816b5a] LibSSH2_jll v1.11.0+1 [c8ffd9c3] MbedTLS_jll v2.28.2+1 [14a3606d] MozillaCACerts_jll v2023.1.10 [4536629a] OpenBLAS_jll v0.3.23+4 [05823500] OpenLibm_jll v0.8.5+0 [bea87d4a] SuiteSparse_jll v7.2.1+1 [83775a58] Zlib_jll v1.2.13+1 [8e850b90] libblastrampoline_jll v5.11.0+0 [8e850ede] nghttp2_jll v1.52.0+1 [3f19e933] p7zip_jll v17.4.0+2 Info Packages marked with ⌃ and ⌅ have new versions available. Those with ⌃ may be upgradable, but those with ⌅ are restricted by compatibility constraints from upgrading. Testing Running tests... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.146 │ 0.253 │ 0.078 │ -0.286 │ -0.033 │ 0.156 │ 0.338 │ 0.631 │ 11.749 │ 10.01 │ 1.289 │ │ σ │ 9.992 │ 0.15 │ 0.025 │ 9.706 │ 9.88 │ 10.0 │ 10.078 │ 10.339 │ 27.676 │ 82.581 │ 1.131 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ ┌───┬──────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.146 │ 0.253 │ 0.078 │ -0.286 │ -0.033 │ 0.156 │ 0.338 │ 0.631 │ 11.749 │ 10.01 │ 1.289 │ │ σ │ 10.0 │ 9.992 │ 0.15 │ 0.025 │ 9.706 │ 9.88 │ 10.0 │ 10.078 │ 10.339 │ 27.676 │ 82.581 │ 1.131 │ └───┴──────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.055 │ 0.245 │ 0.071 │ -0.279 │ -0.054 │ 0.016 │ 0.108 │ 0.694 │ 9.388 │ 9.751 │ 1.398 │ │ σ │ 10.042 │ 0.147 │ 0.026 │ 9.705 │ 9.958 │ 10.0 │ 10.189 │ 10.261 │ 31.232 │ 87.872 │ 1.161 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ ┌───┬──────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.055 │ 0.245 │ 0.071 │ -0.279 │ -0.054 │ 0.016 │ 0.108 │ 0.694 │ 9.388 │ 9.751 │ 1.398 │ │ σ │ 10.0 │ 10.042 │ 0.147 │ 0.026 │ 9.705 │ 9.958 │ 10.0 │ 10.189 │ 10.261 │ 31.232 │ 87.872 │ 1.161 │ └───┴──────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.082 │ 0.204 │ 0.058 │ -0.165 │ -0.037 │ 0.012 │ 0.134 │ 0.588 │ 9.848 │ 34.513 │ 1.373 │ │ σ │ 10.096 │ 0.28 │ 0.084 │ 9.599 │ 9.859 │ 10.026 │ 10.367 │ 10.473 │ 11.26 │ 38.816 │ 1.312 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ ┌───┬──────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.082 │ 0.204 │ 0.058 │ -0.165 │ -0.037 │ 0.012 │ 0.134 │ 0.588 │ 9.848 │ 34.513 │ 1.373 │ │ σ │ 10.0 │ 10.096 │ 0.28 │ 0.084 │ 9.599 │ 9.859 │ 10.026 │ 10.367 │ 10.473 │ 11.26 │ 38.816 │ 1.312 │ └───┴──────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ -0.015 │ 0.32 │ 0.101 │ -0.421 │ -0.279 │ -0.013 │ 0.163 │ 0.674 │ 10.575 │ 6.309 │ 1.425 │ │ σ │ 10.26 │ 0.363 │ 0.123 │ 9.748 │ 9.925 │ 10.173 │ 10.579 │ 10.817 │ 10.593 │ 75.771 │ 1.592 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ ┌───┬──────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ -0.015 │ 0.32 │ 0.101 │ -0.421 │ -0.279 │ -0.013 │ 0.163 │ 0.674 │ 10.575 │ 6.309 │ 1.425 │ │ σ │ 10.0 │ 10.26 │ 0.363 │ 0.123 │ 9.748 │ 9.925 │ 10.173 │ 10.579 │ 10.817 │ 10.593 │ 75.771 │ 1.592 │ └───┴──────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.071 │ 0.374 │ 0.108 │ -0.637 │ -0.1 │ 0.099 │ 0.28 │ 0.874 │ 12.289 │ 27.645 │ 1.264 │ │ σ │ 10.107 │ 0.338 │ 0.055 │ 9.457 │ 9.905 │ 10.04 │ 10.326 │ 10.627 │ 45.471 │ 19.635 │ 1.22 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ ┌───┬──────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.071 │ 0.374 │ 0.108 │ -0.637 │ -0.1 │ 0.099 │ 0.28 │ 0.874 │ 12.289 │ 27.645 │ 1.264 │ │ σ │ 10.0 │ 10.107 │ 0.338 │ 0.055 │ 9.457 │ 9.905 │ 10.04 │ 10.326 │ 10.627 │ 45.471 │ 19.635 │ 1.22 │ └───┴──────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.227 │ 0.375 │ 0.12 │ -0.541 │ 0.06 │ 0.322 │ 0.42 │ 0.951 │ 10.565 │ 18.286 │ 1.343 │ │ σ │ 10.002 │ 0.28 │ 0.042 │ 9.48 │ 9.774 │ 10.008 │ 10.209 │ 10.554 │ 47.063 │ 18.748 │ 1.065 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ ┌───┬──────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.227 │ 0.375 │ 0.12 │ -0.541 │ 0.06 │ 0.322 │ 0.42 │ 0.951 │ 10.565 │ 18.286 │ 1.343 │ │ σ │ 10.0 │ 10.002 │ 0.28 │ 0.042 │ 9.48 │ 9.774 │ 10.008 │ 10.209 │ 10.554 │ 47.063 │ 18.748 │ 1.065 │ └───┴──────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.171 │ 0.219 │ 0.063 │ -0.095 │ 0.004 │ 0.126 │ 0.309 │ 0.729 │ 10.684 │ 32.804 │ 1.324 │ │ σ │ 10.111 │ 0.348 │ 0.112 │ 9.54 │ 9.898 │ 10.034 │ 10.294 │ 10.681 │ 10.143 │ 11.358 │ 1.365 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ ┌───┬──────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.171 │ 0.219 │ 0.063 │ -0.095 │ 0.004 │ 0.126 │ 0.309 │ 0.729 │ 10.684 │ 32.804 │ 1.324 │ │ σ │ 10.0 │ 10.111 │ 0.348 │ 0.112 │ 9.54 │ 9.898 │ 10.034 │ 10.294 │ 10.681 │ 10.143 │ 11.358 │ 1.365 │ └───┴──────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.126 │ 0.266 │ 0.059 │ -0.312 │ -0.028 │ 0.12 │ 0.203 │ 0.746 │ 14.381 │ 53.368 │ 1.339 │ │ σ │ 10.022 │ 0.226 │ 0.022 │ 9.577 │ 9.868 │ 10.027 │ 10.191 │ 10.45 │ 106.043 │ 99.694 │ 1.039 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ ┌───┬──────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.126 │ 0.266 │ 0.059 │ -0.312 │ -0.028 │ 0.12 │ 0.203 │ 0.746 │ 14.381 │ 53.368 │ 1.339 │ │ σ │ 10.0 │ 10.022 │ 0.226 │ 0.022 │ 9.577 │ 9.868 │ 10.027 │ 10.191 │ 10.45 │ 106.043 │ 99.694 │ 1.039 │ └───┴──────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1079.823, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.309. NUTS sampler had 52 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 28.096 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.5 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 52, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.24 │ 0.283 │ 0.04 │ -0.208 │ -0.011 │ 0.189 │ 0.429 │ 0.817 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ │ σ │ 10.065 │ 0.237 │ 0.037 │ 9.562 │ 9.897 │ 10.077 │ 10.274 │ 10.408 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1081.866, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.445. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 21.96 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.81 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.365 │ 0.374 │ 0.082 │ -0.567 │ 0.162 │ 0.425 │ 0.639 │ 0.954 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ │ σ │ 10.018 │ 0.274 │ 0.044 │ 9.365 │ 9.826 │ 10.035 │ 10.171 │ 10.508 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1079.823, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3736.409. NUTS sampler had 48 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 24.814 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.512 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 48, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1079.872, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3736.279. NUTS sampler had 52 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 26.174 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.578 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 52, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.242 │ 0.243 │ 0.016 │ -0.191 │ 0.097 │ 0.201 │ 0.388 │ 0.798 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ │ σ │ 10.058 │ 0.227 │ 0.039 │ 9.632 │ 9.892 │ 10.047 │ 10.244 │ 10.461 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1079.897, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.62. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 20.52 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.69 (5). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1079.856, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.744. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 22.58 (7) number of steps and depth of 3.8 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.241 │ 0.331 │ 0.048 │ -0.4 │ 0.035 │ 0.256 │ 0.468 │ 0.82 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ │ σ │ 10.018 │ 0.323 │ 0.041 │ 9.4 │ 9.836 │ 10.004 │ 10.178 │ 10.783 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.001, Avg. final ℓposterior: -4666.066. NUTS sampler had 203 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 72.72 (127) number of steps and depth of 3.388 (7). Divergences in: Warmup: 20, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 183, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.001, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.837. NUTS sampler had 209 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 92.73 (1023) number of steps and depth of 3.346 (10). Divergences in: Warmup: 9, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 200, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.001, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.926. NUTS sampler had 71 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 109.98 (15) number of steps and depth of 4.066 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 21, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 50, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.146, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.374. NUTS sampler had 69 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 44.394 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.178 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 18, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 51, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬─────────┬─────────┬─────────┬─────────┬─────────┬─────────┬───────┬─────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼─────────┼─────────┼─────────┼─────────┼─────────┼─────────┼───────┼─────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ -29.358 │ 30.816 │ 13.167 │ -94.616 │ -41.013 │ -34.668 │ 0.262 │ 0.803 │ 6.114 │ 11.351 │ 1.75 │ │ σ │ 1459.93 │ 29287.5 │ 1252.55 │ 9.636 │ 10.116 │ 35.909 │ 40.07 │ 150.509 │ 6.795 │ 51.989 │ 1.594 │ └───┴─────────┴─────────┴─────────┴─────────┴─────────┴─────────┴───────┴─────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.001, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3736.567. NUTS sampler had 25 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 453.1 (1) number of steps and depth of 6.32 (0). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 25, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.001, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.967. NUTS sampler had 25 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 449.99 (1) number of steps and depth of 6.12 (0). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 25, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.002, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3767.213. NUTS sampler had 25 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 272.22 (1) number of steps and depth of 4.28 (0). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 25, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.001, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.938. NUTS sampler had 25 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 245.8 (1) number of steps and depth of 4.28 (0). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 25, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬─────────┬─────────┬─────────┬─────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬─────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼─────────┼─────────┼─────────┼─────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼─────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 3.567 │ 28.005 │ 7.766 │ -80.198 │ -0.211 │ 0.122 │ 4.108 │ 94.986 │ 8.487 │ 12.565 │ 1.984 │ │ σ │ 317.234 │ 3151.57 │ 205.539 │ 9.675 │ 10.085 │ 10.895 │ 29.651 │ 907.634 │ 9.481 │ 35.82 │ 1.416 │ └───┴─────────┴─────────┴─────────┴─────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴─────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.001, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3737.098. NUTS sampler had 57 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 106.03 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.944 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 7, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 50, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.001, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3737.192. NUTS sampler had 72 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 122.15 (15) number of steps and depth of 4.072 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 22, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 50, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.081, Avg. final ℓposterior: -4836.971. NUTS sampler had 210 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 62.026 (255) number of steps and depth of 3.072 (7). Divergences in: Warmup: 11, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 199, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.001, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3737.533. NUTS sampler had 84 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 101.052 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.806 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 34, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 50, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.028, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3737.268. NUTS sampler had 62 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 113.798 (15) number of steps and depth of 4.0 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 12, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 50, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.007, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.505. NUTS sampler had 69 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 106.264 (31) number of steps and depth of 4.074 (5). Divergences in: Warmup: 19, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 50, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.003, Avg. final ℓposterior: -4829.217. NUTS sampler had 214 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 58.258 (127) number of steps and depth of 3.05 (7). Divergences in: Warmup: 14, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 200, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.003, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3736.84. NUTS sampler had 85 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 105.446 (7) number of steps and depth of 3.854 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 35, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 50, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬─────────┬────────┬─────────┬──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────┬─────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼─────────┼────────┼─────────┼──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────┼─────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ -23.145 │ 55.031 │ 21.411 │ -151.408 │ -25.751 │ 0.236 │ 0.6 │ 3.847 │ 8.1 │ 12.492 │ 1.588 │ │ σ │ 702.827 │ 8387.7 │ 366.251 │ 9.605 │ 9.93 │ 10.14 │ 31.144 │ 262.735 │ 8.352 │ 21.187 │ 1.459 │ └───┴─────────┴────────┴─────────┴──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────┴─────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.005, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3737.224. NUTS sampler had 25 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 261.0 (1) number of steps and depth of 4.56 (0). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 25, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.004, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3736.525. NUTS sampler had 25 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 263.84 (1) number of steps and depth of 4.57 (0). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 25, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.001, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3736.87. NUTS sampler had 25 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 448.9 (1) number of steps and depth of 6.18 (0). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 25, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.005, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3736.354. NUTS sampler had 25 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 255.76 (1) number of steps and depth of 4.67 (0). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 25, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.052, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3737.224. NUTS sampler had 25 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 249.34 (1) number of steps and depth of 4.42 (0). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 25, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.001, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3736.525. NUTS sampler had 25 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 240.3 (1) number of steps and depth of 4.46 (0). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 25, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.001, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3736.87. NUTS sampler had 25 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 449.06 (1) number of steps and depth of 6.15 (0). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 25, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.351, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3736.354. NUTS sampler had 25 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 261.36 (1) number of steps and depth of 4.66 (0). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 25, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬─────────┬─────────┬─────────┬─────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬─────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼─────────┼─────────┼─────────┼─────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼─────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ -8.67 │ 25.9 │ 5.687 │ -89.758 │ -0.295 │ 0.029 │ 0.409 │ 2.262 │ 14.972 │ 34.289 │ 1.24 │ │ σ │ 4274.94 │ 36583.9 │ 3928.88 │ 2.881 │ 9.856 │ 10.098 │ 10.453 │ 14817.9 │ 24.246 │ 27.793 │ 1.394 │ └───┴─────────┴─────────┴─────────┴─────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴─────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.822, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.791. NUTS sampler had 34 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 25.426 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.548 (5). Divergences in: Warmup: 34, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.253 │ 0.28 │ 0.098 │ -0.217 │ 0.024 │ 0.226 │ 0.442 │ 0.827 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ │ σ │ 10.009 │ 0.205 │ 0.012 │ 9.656 │ 9.841 │ 9.999 │ 10.138 │ 10.444 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -3736.173, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.452. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 21.18 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.75 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.349 │ 0.33 │ 0.061 │ -0.389 │ 0.143 │ 0.348 │ 0.56 │ 0.936 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ │ σ │ 10.004 │ 0.161 │ 0.02 │ 9.703 │ 9.896 │ 10.006 │ 10.113 │ 10.352 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.963, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3737.953. NUTS sampler had 34 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 48.826 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.568 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 34, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.963, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3738.188. NUTS sampler had 41 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 55.958 (7) number of steps and depth of 3.562 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 41, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.287 │ 0.285 │ 0.025 │ -0.293 │ 0.132 │ 0.252 │ 0.458 │ 0.891 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ │ σ │ 9.985 │ 0.222 │ 0.032 │ 9.636 │ 9.766 │ 9.976 │ 10.138 │ 10.455 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -3736.549, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3736.97. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 18.44 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.57 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -3735.9, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3738.134. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 18.72 (7) number of steps and depth of 3.65 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.296 │ 0.291 │ 0.05 │ -0.245 │ 0.103 │ 0.275 │ 0.507 │ 0.901 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ │ σ │ 10.001 │ 0.225 │ 0.027 │ 9.621 │ 9.853 │ 9.992 │ 10.165 │ 10.43 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.88, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2590.207. NUTS sampler had 27 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 25.456 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.546 (5). Divergences in: Warmup: 27, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.88, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2590.563. NUTS sampler had 23 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 19.012 (3) number of steps and depth of 3.38 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 23, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.733, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2588.52. NUTS sampler had 21 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 20.694 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.35 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 21, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1868.034, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2590.174. NUTS sampler had 19 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 30.75 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.58 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 19, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.263 │ 0.384 │ 0.028 │ -0.456 │ 0.0 │ 0.254 │ 0.525 │ 1.04 │ 187.232 │ 458.135 │ 1.016 │ │ σ │ 10.037 │ 0.266 │ 0.008 │ 9.519 │ 9.863 │ 10.022 │ 10.211 │ 10.578 │ 995.311 │ 1093.63 │ 1.006 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2589.828, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2696.395. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 20.38 (23) number of steps and depth of 3.72 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2589.581, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2695.255. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.4 (7) number of steps and depth of 3.58 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2589.567, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2696.598. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.8 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.55 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2589.5, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2695.361. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 19.76 (19) number of steps and depth of 3.76 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.275 │ 0.4 │ 0.055 │ -0.523 │ 0.01 │ 0.275 │ 0.556 │ 0.993 │ 53.948 │ 94.227 │ 1.036 │ │ σ │ 10.028 │ 0.277 │ 0.02 │ 9.449 │ 9.842 │ 10.023 │ 10.21 │ 10.567 │ 202.511 │ 168.986 │ 1.026 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.88, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2590.906. NUTS sampler had 32 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 20.392 (7) number of steps and depth of 3.336 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 32, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.88, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2588.526. NUTS sampler had 33 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 19.292 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.324 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 33, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.88, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2588.754. NUTS sampler had 27 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 15.136 (7) number of steps and depth of 3.168 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 27, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.88, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2589.175. NUTS sampler had 30 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 18.248 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.354 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 30, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.914, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2591.351. NUTS sampler had 30 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 19.69 (7) number of steps and depth of 3.302 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 30, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1868.183, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2589.514. NUTS sampler had 40 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 18.918 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.336 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 40, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.88, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2588.906. NUTS sampler had 37 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 16.856 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.244 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 37, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1868.266, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2590.259. NUTS sampler had 17 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 18.95 (7) number of steps and depth of 3.378 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 17, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.3 │ 0.376 │ 0.018 │ -0.388 │ 0.032 │ 0.293 │ 0.546 │ 1.088 │ 430.002 │ 738.346 │ 1.008 │ │ σ │ 10.028 │ 0.289 │ 0.011 │ 9.522 │ 9.82 │ 10.009 │ 10.226 │ 10.621 │ 712.733 │ 622.379 │ 1.008 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2591.722, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2696.203. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.9 (7) number of steps and depth of 3.5 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2589.635, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2695.783. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 16.28 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.37 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2589.755, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2696.604. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 18.06 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.67 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2589.825, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2695.182. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 19.32 (23) number of steps and depth of 3.71 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2589.673, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2695.296. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 16.4 (7) number of steps and depth of 3.47 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2589.872, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2696.387. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 16.94 (23) number of steps and depth of 3.5 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2589.638, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2696.469. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 18.54 (3) number of steps and depth of 3.66 (2). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2589.92, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2695.295. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 20.66 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.6 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.26 │ 0.367 │ 0.028 │ -0.51 │ 0.016 │ 0.268 │ 0.502 │ 0.909 │ 177.55 │ 285.744 │ 1.009 │ │ σ │ 10.013 │ 0.259 │ 0.014 │ 9.532 │ 9.843 │ 10.023 │ 10.185 │ 10.526 │ 368.271 │ 305.825 │ 1.004 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Computing... 0%|▏ | ETA: 0:04:11 ( 0.63 s/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 2 logobjective: -3735.7599335028153 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.19599207598344762 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -3736.0050168650455                         Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:02 ( 6.95 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 100 logobjective: -3735.6081435787682 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9998209923551838 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 71 ℓH: -3735.985723827005 Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -3735.953, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.511. NUTS sampler had 18 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 12.6 (63) number of steps and depth of 2.056 (5). Divergences in: Warmup: 18, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -3735.537, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3738.098. NUTS sampler had 22 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 15.856 (63) number of steps and depth of 2.144 (5). Divergences in: Warmup: 22, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -3735.417, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3737.703. NUTS sampler had 33 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 16.111 (63) number of steps and depth of 2.111 (5). Divergences in: Warmup: 33, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -3735.76, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.608. NUTS sampler had 19 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 14.667 (71) number of steps and depth of 2.111 (6). Divergences in: Warmup: 19, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.191 │ 0.171 │ 0.054 │ -0.055 │ 0.087 │ 0.154 │ 0.287 │ 0.583 │ 10.478 │ 15.208 │ 1.376 │ │ σ │ 10.006 │ 0.151 │ 0.017 │ 9.73 │ 9.92 │ 10.017 │ 10.091 │ 10.282 │ 78.608 │ 21.859 │ 1.357 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Computing... 0%|▏ | ETA: 0:01:46 ( 0.27 s/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 102 logobjective: -3735.926752189699 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9990254941556033 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 31 ℓH: -3736.2971151803986                         Computing... 27%|██████▊ | ETA: 0:00:02 ( 6.06 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 108 logobjective: -3736.089225256909 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9996709833137516 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 95 ℓH: -3736.702374356783                         Computing... 51%|████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 3.73 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 103 logobjective: -3735.5295751025124 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9999400159928187 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 95 ℓH: -3736.6108300453207                         Computing... 80%|████████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 2.74 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 119 logobjective: -3735.355866359957 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.999982612959061 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 31 ℓH: -3739.6087843929317                         Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:00 ( 2.38 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 200 logobjective: -3735.9547591343853 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9969446073635527 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 31 ℓH: -3736.82679049393 Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -3735.795, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.545. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 30.844 (31) number of steps and depth of 4.267 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -3735.858, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3737.614. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 34.378 (15) number of steps and depth of 4.067 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -3735.685, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.511. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 27.489 (15) number of steps and depth of 4.1 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -3735.403, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.955. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 34.289 (31) number of steps and depth of 4.467 (5). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.239 │ 0.302 │ 0.047 │ -0.437 │ 0.031 │ 0.249 │ 0.45 │ 0.785 │ 43.891 │ 46.134 │ 1.093 │ │ σ │ 10.015 │ 0.218 │ 0.014 │ 9.623 │ 9.868 │ 10.008 │ 10.157 │ 10.439 │ 241.648 │ 235.129 │ 1.003 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Computing... 0%|▏ | ETA: 0:01:49 ( 0.27 s/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1000 Avgℓobjective: -3738.0463037499435 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.907367548158163 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:01 ( 3.28 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1099 Avgℓobjective: -3738.602662902551 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.5576053976529632 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -3737.994, variance: 0.018 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -3738.603, variance: 0.162 Total number of jittering steps: 114. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.535, -0.023, 0.38, 0.73, 0.962]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.271 │ 0.299 │ 0.026 │ -0.222 │ 0.069 │ 0.251 │ 0.447 │ 0.959 │ 130.057 │ 135.447 │ 1.039 │ │ σ │ 10.02 │ 0.222 │ 0.013 │ 9.549 │ 9.857 │ 10.03 │ 10.185 │ 10.418 │ 308.45 │ 220.192 │ 1.011 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Computing... 31%|███████▊ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 0.85 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1131 Avgℓobjective: -1563.589812585261 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.25331064958445015 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 60%|███████████████▏ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 1.19 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1160 Avgℓobjective: -1563.6216282974592 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9327339138720105 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 77%|███████████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 1.31 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1176 Avgℓobjective: -1562.8130847837888 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.5801134641837526 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 94%|███████████████████████▍ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 1.36 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1193 Avgℓobjective: -1563.4287635837022 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.5971985565150626 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:00 ( 1.39 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1199 Avgℓobjective: -1562.853964841764 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.48226745273824534 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1564.569, variance: 9.57 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1562.854, variance: 0.514 Total number of jittering steps: 232. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.648, 0.199, 0.566, 0.851, 1.0]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ -0.029 │ 0.03 │ 0.004 │ -0.087 │ -0.051 │ -0.028 │ -0.009 │ 0.031 │ 61.126 │ 50.289 │ 1.062 │ │ σ │ 1.005 │ 0.026 │ 0.002 │ 0.954 │ 0.988 │ 1.005 │ 1.022 │ 1.063 │ 155.344 │ 55.245 │ 1.108 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Computing... 0%| | ETA: 0:05:59 ( 0.45 s/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1000 Avgℓobjective: -50336.53349747287 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: NaN generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 13%|███▎ | ETA: 0:00:14 (19.38 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1050 Avgℓobjective: -3738.621009146973 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.6983507110047069 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 14%|███▋ | ETA: 0:00:12 (18.08 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1057 Avgℓobjective: -3738.3761927074797 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.4502555826309027 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 16%|████ | ETA: 0:00:12 (17.84 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1062 Avgℓobjective: -3738.1143021210432 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.06985036356878144 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 17%|████▎ | ETA: 0:00:12 (17.33 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1067 Avgℓobjective: -3738.37511932156 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.4980293941430688 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 19%|████▋ | ETA: 0:00:11 (16.57 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 75 logobjective: -3736.5327426950644 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 2.51057673071597e-26 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -3736.800206819865                         Computing... 20%|█████ | ETA: 0:00:10 (16.08 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 81 logobjective: -3735.726967652504 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 9.726089291440032e-13 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3736.6432658940935                         Computing... 21%|█████▍ | ETA: 0:00:10 (15.93 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 86 logobjective: -3735.561171801831 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.061281909897969195 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -3739.0721046452004                         Computing... 22%|█████▌ | ETA: 0:00:10 (15.94 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1088 Avgℓobjective: -3738.42071995516 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.2995163858890267 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 24%|█████▉ | ETA: 0:00:10 (15.69 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1093 Avgℓobjective: -3739.2978428647652 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8460658374996408 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 25%|██████▏ | ETA: 0:00:10 (15.80 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 99 logobjective: -3738.139245399195 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.7955132045325426e-275 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3738.3278870544705                         Computing... 30%|███████▌ | ETA: 0:00:08 (13.40 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1019 Avgℓobjective: -5591.108992260955 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9608828135925831 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 35%|████████▉ | ETA: 0:00:07 (13.81 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 42 logobjective: -3736.4254487684525 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.6024827692487942e-109 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -3737.329063195872                         Computing... 36%|█████████ | ETA: 0:00:07 (13.98 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 45 logobjective: -3772.2387407262368 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.0 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3772.24566286075                         Computing... 38%|█████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:07 (13.67 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 52 logobjective: -3735.4672003689648 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 5.040458242130724e-44 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3735.596410324467                         Computing... 40%|█████████▉ | ETA: 0:00:07 (13.58 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 59 logobjective: -3737.9998947598783 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.0753725627896328 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -3739.7440841156035                         Computing... 41%|██████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:06 (13.53 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1062 Avgℓobjective: -3739.006600988733 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.025050053240818826 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 42%|██████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:06 (13.54 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 68 logobjective: -3736.062367890549 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.00021649489607434723 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3736.7008839772984                         Computing... 43%|██████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:06 (13.51 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1071 Avgℓobjective: -3738.0375416571405 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.7233142722055536 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 44%|███████████ | ETA: 0:00:06 (13.46 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1076 Avgℓobjective: -3738.657009190693 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.41955825645505274 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 46%|███████████▍ | ETA: 0:00:06 (13.39 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1081 Avgℓobjective: -3738.557129330942 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.6265279074118959 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 47%|███████████▋ | ETA: 0:00:06 (13.51 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 87 logobjective: -3736.455003523135 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.3928550678351555e-51 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -3736.9496551190114                         Computing... 48%|████████████ | ETA: 0:00:06 (13.46 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 92 logobjective: -3738.8054555196977 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 4.2245751512471165e-256 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3741.807462926151                         Computing... 49%|████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:05 (13.40 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1096 Avgℓobjective: -3738.081599462444 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.4041145136023315 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 55%|█████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:04 (12.31 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1018 Avgℓobjective: -4892.820725554625 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9640613749830749 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 60%|███████████████ | ETA: 0:00:04 (12.03 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 40 logobjective: -3736.2277198091356 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 5.027919345876951e-15 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -3737.68527212263                         Computing... 61%|███████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:04 (12.08 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1044 Avgℓobjective: -3738.3407185056703 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.7002667427169662 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 62%|███████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:04 (12.29 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 49 logobjective: -3735.345249921049 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.3301216194956828e-41 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3737.3755885440382                         Computing... 63%|███████████████▋ | ETA: 0:00:04 (12.41 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 51 logobjective: -3735.6416015454074 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 4.5704540432602676e-48 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3735.685651119114                         Computing... 63%|███████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:04 (12.53 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1052 Avgℓobjective: -3738.2531954222795 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.01030525216120115 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 64%|████████████████▏ | ETA: 0:00:04 (12.73 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1057 Avgℓobjective: -3738.327849376083 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.4168257305847948 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 65%|████████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:04 (12.85 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1060 Avgℓobjective: -3738.7209665721743 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.1395727640867348 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 66%|████████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:03 (12.92 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1064 Avgℓobjective: -3739.2319299161 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.29492313729369024 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 67%|████████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:03 (13.02 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1067 Avgℓobjective: -3738.7443629264135 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.24975146587098387 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 68%|█████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:03 (13.08 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1070 Avgℓobjective: -3737.785574974561 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.45063546835384616 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 68%|█████████████████▏ | ETA: 0:00:03 (13.17 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1073 Avgℓobjective: -3738.219230162467 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8390958459299183 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 70%|█████████████████▍ | ETA: 0:00:03 (13.17 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 79 logobjective: -3735.9195990894727 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.0022451365636927986 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -3736.2059623806767                         Computing... 71%|█████████████████▋ | ETA: 0:00:03 (13.32 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 83 logobjective: -3736.662021428224 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 2.0721347723369574e-44 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3737.509303463561                         Computing... 71%|█████████████████▉ | ETA: 0:00:03 (13.37 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 86 logobjective: -3735.3624286599056 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.2882153634152174 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -3735.6216621034273                         Computing... 72%|██████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:03 (13.42 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1088 Avgℓobjective: -3738.2908598278773 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.5261492903575683 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 73%|██████████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:03 (13.53 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1092 Avgℓobjective: -3738.1986319103926 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.3694309385797333 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 74%|██████████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:03 (13.62 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1094 Avgℓobjective: -3737.9712624181307 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.207115810516154 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 75%|██████████████████▋ | ETA: 0:00:03 (13.63 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 99 logobjective: -3735.425354729988 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.5728881881117961e-18 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3736.3355180007325                         Computing... 80%|████████████████████▏ | ETA: 0:00:02 (12.80 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1021 Avgℓobjective: -4915.011388578957 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.1447671111157506 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 86%|█████████████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:01 (13.03 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1044 Avgℓobjective: -3738.672686841809 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.6945548461532735 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 87%|█████████████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:01 (13.05 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1048 Avgℓobjective: -3738.45678705879 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.18098946201209556 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 88%|██████████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:01 (13.14 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1051 Avgℓobjective: -3738.37395262929 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.2102295328671965 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 89%|██████████████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:01 (13.16 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 56 logobjective: -3736.096889753499 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.012109707997145622 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -3736.3386369196087                         Computing... 90%|██████████████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:01 (13.19 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1058 Avgℓobjective: -3738.8027551079886 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.5941604923096604 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 90%|██████████████████████▋ | ETA: 0:00:01 (13.23 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1061 Avgℓobjective: -3737.963995713486 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.6760516957022078 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 91%|██████████████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:01 (13.38 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1064 Avgℓobjective: -3738.496541687175 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.07383271928672164 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 92%|███████████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:01 (13.41 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1068 Avgℓobjective: -3737.931352190949 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.7859468676207788 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 93%|███████████████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:01 (13.44 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1071 Avgℓobjective: -3738.5169642562287 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.03884447306555672 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 94%|███████████████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:01 (13.50 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1074 Avgℓobjective: -3738.656869083867 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.19478738907625723 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 94%|███████████████████████▋ | ETA: 0:00:01 (13.58 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 78 logobjective: -3736.80347358324 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.2393594447409769e-11 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -3737.8699836009037                         Computing... 96%|████████████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:00 (13.54 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1082 Avgℓobjective: -3738.631526194894 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.5778832780373626 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 97%|████████████████████████▎| ETA: 0:00:00 (13.60 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1087 Avgℓobjective: -3738.4330595643023 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.21609881878136242 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 98%|████████████████████████▌| ETA: 0:00:00 (13.66 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 92 logobjective: -3735.789701333313 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.20001708817951386 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 5 ℓH: -3736.296520424922                         Computing... 98%|████████████████████████▋| ETA: 0:00:00 (13.74 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1093 Avgℓobjective: -3738.31584135359 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.41347698454395554 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:10 (13.72 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1099 Avgℓobjective: -3738.3340549424875 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.63471920126756 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -17056.489, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.755. NUTS sampler had 43 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.567 (3) number of steps and depth of 0.811 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 39, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 4, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -30923.139, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.439. NUTS sampler had 60 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.578 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.689 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 52, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 8, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -13363.033, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.322. NUTS sampler had 47 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.478 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.767 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 43, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 4, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -20802.759, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.724. NUTS sampler had 60 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.767 (3) number of steps and depth of 0.744 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 52, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 8, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -19997.498, variance: 1.79806212855e8 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -3738.208, variance: 0.397 Total number of jittering steps: 238. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.165, 0.273, 0.595, 0.846, 0.997]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 2: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -24208.697, variance: 6.7957279e7 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -3738.92, variance: 2.165 Total number of jittering steps: 285. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.382, 0.144, 0.654, 0.877, 0.999]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 3: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -14760.889, variance: 3.3143807667e7 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -3738.244, variance: 0.863 Total number of jittering steps: 221. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.522, 0.22, 0.689, 0.86, 0.999]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 4: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -18923.156, variance: 1.00568165324e8 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -3738.334, variance: 0.034 Total number of jittering steps: 234. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.476, 0.047, 0.543, 0.807, 0.998]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.215 │ 0.282 │ 0.046 │ -0.176 │ -0.024 │ 0.145 │ 0.405 │ 0.823 │ 41.597 │ 268.673 │ 1.082 │ │ σ │ 9.136 │ 2.329 │ 0.477 │ 2.416 │ 9.734 │ 9.976 │ 10.172 │ 10.924 │ 59.441 │ 69.106 │ 1.133 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Computing... 0%| | ETA: 0:03:26 ( 0.26 s/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1100 Avgℓobjective: -3387.505099948209 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.15948428960259614 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 2%|▋ | ETA: 0:00:24 (31.19 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1109 Avgℓobjective: -1579.5978345347066 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8978550274804851 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 24%|██████ | ETA: 0:00:03 ( 5.02 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1194 Avgℓobjective: -1570.159713841288 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.19129868234576555 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 36%|█████████▏ | ETA: 0:00:02 ( 3.65 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1145 Avgℓobjective: -1570.5946079322644 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.6180309511888781 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 74%|██████████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 3.79 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 197 logobjective: -1571.7881403349932 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 7.348698888665188e-167 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -1571.7985732669197                         Computing... 77%|███████████████████▍ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 3.97 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 110 logobjective: -1643.6279961569849 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.0 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1644.1429768954358                         Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:02 ( 3.23 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1199 Avgℓobjective: -1570.0085371955315 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.3097780487835032 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1572.7, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1569.685. NUTS sampler had 48 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.433 (3) number of steps and depth of 0.744 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 43, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 5, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1570.831, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1570.161. NUTS sampler had 52 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.5 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.767 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 40, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 12, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1884.459, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1569.881. NUTS sampler had 47 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.544 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.8 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 40, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 7, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1570.27, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1571.239. NUTS sampler had 49 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.711 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.911 (0). Divergences in: Warmup: 39, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 10, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1579.575, variance: 278.055 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1570.414, variance: 0.231 Total number of jittering steps: 243. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.61, 0.582, 0.878, 0.955, 0.995]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 2: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1570.649, variance: 0.321 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1570.766, variance: 0.205 Total number of jittering steps: 105. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.655, 0.103, 0.401, 0.715, 0.92]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 3: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1824.538, variance: 114327.533 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1570.206, variance: 0.312 Total number of jittering steps: 302. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.305, 0.227, 0.605, 0.928, 1.0]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 6.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 4: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1570.226, variance: 0.347 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1570.009, variance: 0.187 Total number of jittering steps: 203. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.141, 0.211, 0.628, 0.875, 0.982]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 7.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ -0.003 │ 0.048 │ 0.004 │ -0.068 │ -0.03 │ -0.006 │ 0.013 │ 0.095 │ 77.898 │ 33.408 │ 1.04 │ │ σ │ 1.022 │ 0.076 │ 0.008 │ 0.962 │ 0.995 │ 1.008 │ 1.027 │ 1.203 │ 188.129 │ 45.483 │ 1.034 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Computing... 0%|▏ | ETA: 0:02:42 ( 0.41 s/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 2 logobjective: -1079.8232668525707 Temperature: 0.289050497374996 accepted: true acceptancerate: 2.0009197115821995e-7 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1082.727215452687                         Computing... 71%|█████████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 3.25 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 85 logobjective: -3733.0701066310044 Temperature: 0.9993891206405656 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9999982190772551 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 63 ℓH: -3733.2564485263492                         Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:01 ( 2.51 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 100 logobjective: -3736.2763709469127 Temperature: 0.9998636296729204 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.998310296118526 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 55 ℓH: -3736.983818267391 Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1868.81, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.708. NUTS sampler had 38 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 16.422 (87) number of steps and depth of 2.011 (6). Divergences in: Warmup: 38, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1869.064, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.447. NUTS sampler had 23 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 11.467 (31) number of steps and depth of 2.022 (5). Divergences in: Warmup: 23, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1868.083, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.044. NUTS sampler had 47 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 20.867 (15) number of steps and depth of 2.089 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 47, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.857, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3736.276. NUTS sampler had 23 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 14.322 (55) number of steps and depth of 2.067 (5). Divergences in: Warmup: 23, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.054 │ 0.273 │ 0.097 │ -0.335 │ -0.189 │ 0.051 │ 0.306 │ 0.581 │ 8.127 │ 18.521 │ 1.514 │ │ σ │ 10.088 │ 0.203 │ 0.055 │ 9.72 │ 9.966 │ 10.12 │ 10.295 │ 10.334 │ 15.727 │ 17.895 │ 1.189 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Computing... 0%|▏ | ETA: 0:01:51 ( 0.28 s/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 102 logobjective: -1079.7728150951116 Temperature: 0.289050497374996 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9999632123414102 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 63 ℓH: -1079.968690669523                         Computing... 28%|███████ | ETA: 0:00:02 ( 5.84 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 113 logobjective: -2054.7305805434335 Temperature: 0.549833997312478 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9999974498671269 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 63 ℓH: -2055.5508419080443                         Computing... 55%|█████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 3.52 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 121 logobjective: -2733.304066924181 Temperature: 0.7310585786300049 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.999948197284397 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 15 ℓH: -2734.254033061436                         Computing... 87%|█████████████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 2.54 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 148 logobjective: -3645.749333730936 Temperature: 0.9758729785823308 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9971507064009297 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 15 ℓH: -3646.2349738583                         Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:00 ( 2.27 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 200 logobjective: -3737.8444489676453 Temperature: 0.9998636296729204 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9986235274638371 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 7 ℓH: -3742.699747986274 Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1868.743, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.391. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 24.222 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.767 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1868.337, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3736.293. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 20.6 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.722 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1871.154, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3737.968. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 25.511 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.611 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1868.029, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3737.844. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 23.156 (7) number of steps and depth of 3.622 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.3 │ 0.336 │ 0.04 │ -0.392 │ 0.061 │ 0.306 │ 0.519 │ 0.949 │ 73.808 │ 67.823 │ 1.047 │ │ σ │ 10.027 │ 0.25 │ 0.015 │ 9.57 │ 9.858 │ 10.019 │ 10.212 │ 10.493 │ 256.109 │ 174.92 │ 1.001 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Computing... 0%|▏ | ETA: 0:01:35 ( 0.24 s/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1000 Avgℓobjective: -1080.9703309497045 Temperature: 0.289050497374996 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.42609894449069036 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 32%|████████ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 4.51 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1032 Avgℓobjective: -3365.9714474356447 Temperature: 0.9002495108803148 ESS: 3.998861355026046 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.2650787586984175 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 63%|███████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 2.74 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1063 Avgℓobjective: -3720.136170117574 Temperature: 0.995033198349943 ESS: 3.999999356642776 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.5980554710502531 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:00 ( 1.96 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1099 Avgℓobjective: -3738.509852753169 Temperature: 0.9998636296729204 ESS: 3.9999999996100444 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.6381086053828944 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1869.282, variance: 0.18 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -3738.51, variance: 0.217 Total number of jittering steps: 122. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.398, 0.016, 0.451, 0.658, 0.942]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 7.1]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.996, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.321 │ 0.038 │ -0.265 │ 0.052 │ 0.321 │ 0.546 │ 0.863 │ 69.49 │ 106.798 │ 1.04 │ │ σ │ 10.029 │ 0.219 │ 0.013 │ 9.655 │ 9.882 │ 10.021 │ 10.191 │ 10.444 │ 278.546 │ 297.819 │ 1.005 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Computing... 67%|████████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 0.38 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1167 Avgℓobjective: -1541.5289713908892 Temperature: 0.9966651926925867 ESS: 3.9999993881886744 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8733869644516183 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:00 ( 0.81 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1199 Avgℓobjective: -1546.2194622229404 Temperature: 0.9998636296729204 ESS: 3.9999999988004546 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.2981027957123338 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -778.103, variance: 20.909 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1546.219, variance: 0.743 Total number of jittering steps: 228. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.561, 0.06, 0.386, 0.745, 0.99]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.969, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ -0.02 │ 0.027 │ 0.002 │ -0.074 │ -0.039 │ -0.019 │ -0.002 │ 0.028 │ 205.222 │ 244.678 │ 1.013 │ │ σ │ 0.981 │ 0.024 │ 0.003 │ 0.938 │ 0.973 │ 0.984 │ 0.996 │ 1.021 │ 49.044 │ 20.607 │ 1.067 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Computing... 0%| | ETA: 0:05:48 ( 0.44 s/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1000 Avgℓobjective: -15845.774235995284 Temperature: 0.289050497374996 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: NaN generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 13%|███▎ | ETA: 0:00:10 (14.28 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1050 Avgℓobjective: -3671.489240684469 Temperature: 0.9820137900379085 ESS: 3.999995851708388 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.09471255447704813 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 15%|███▊ | ETA: 0:00:11 (16.21 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 60 logobjective: -3708.9554223604014 Temperature: 0.9926084586557181 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.0 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3709.2550149864624                         Computing... 15%|███▉ | ETA: 0:00:11 (16.72 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 62 logobjective: -3712.850741887845 Temperature: 0.9939401985084158 accepted: true acceptancerate: 9.83531066686878e-27 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3713.0473547711504                         Computing... 16%|████ | ETA: 0:00:12 (17.33 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1062 Avgℓobjective: -3717.773248421504 Temperature: 0.9945137011005495 ESS: 3.9999998410572717 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.018523211396162143 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 16%|████ | ETA: 0:00:12 (17.85 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1064 Avgℓobjective: -3720.9181430016674 Temperature: 0.9955037268390589 ESS: 3.9999998855452596 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.294605240462271 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 17%|████▎ | ETA: 0:00:12 (18.29 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1066 Avgℓobjective: -3724.971308658589 Temperature: 0.9963157601005641 ESS: 3.999999863412857 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9602985958541088 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 18%|████▍ | ETA: 0:00:12 (18.29 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 71 logobjective: -3726.4103067170468 Temperature: 0.9975273768433653 accepted: true acceptancerate: 6.276258369336907e-13 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3728.6003983193295                         Computing... 18%|████▋ | ETA: 0:00:12 (18.84 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 74 logobjective: -3731.9573344546934 Temperature: 0.9981670610575072 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.0 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3733.6756407030066                         Computing... 19%|████▊ | ETA: 0:00:13 (19.58 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1074 Avgℓobjective: -3732.570517635845 Temperature: 0.9983411989198255 ESS: 3.9999998804711074 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.5433746128982929 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 19%|████▉ | ETA: 0:00:13 (19.71 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 78 logobjective: -3730.87855973549 Temperature: 0.9987706013787226 accepted: true acceptancerate: 6.764484045452933e-15 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3731.110852307077                         Computing... 20%|█████ | ETA: 0:00:13 (20.10 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1079 Avgℓobjective: -3734.8627957350473 Temperature: 0.9989932291799144 ESS: 3.9999999792576073 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.41109067212232675 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 21%|█████▎ | ETA: 0:00:13 (20.05 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 84 logobjective: -3733.3581863422924 Temperature: 0.9993249172693672 accepted: true acceptancerate: 5.851628291313128e-230 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3734.9261922749447                         Computing... 22%|█████▍ | ETA: 0:00:13 (20.28 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1085 Avgℓobjective: -3736.2717252397247 Temperature: 0.9994472213630764 ESS: 3.99999999723331 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.16312344905846443 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 22%|█████▌ | ETA: 0:00:13 (20.53 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1087 Avgℓobjective: -3737.271149298652 Temperature: 0.9995473777767595 ESS: 3.9999999995643236 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.3932614715593037 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 23%|█████▊ | ETA: 0:00:13 (20.57 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1091 Avgℓobjective: -3737.21887582201 Temperature: 0.9996965529699712 ESS: 3.999999998716577 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.510525889099946 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 24%|█████▉ | ETA: 0:00:13 (20.73 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 95 logobjective: -3734.5785794091507 Temperature: 0.9997751832297667 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.0 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3738.1275988334114                         Computing... 24%|██████ | ETA: 0:00:13 (21.12 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 97 logobjective: -3735.0827500511136 Temperature: 0.9998159280950366 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.2916661466188365 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -3735.4672909732217                         Computing... 24%|██████▏ | ETA: 0:00:13 (21.39 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1097 Avgℓobjective: -3738.252603196627 Temperature: 0.9998334419352227 ESS: 3.999999999780039 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.803053710670971 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 26%|██████▌ | ETA: 0:00:12 (20.64 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1003 Avgℓobjective: -18189.976141589897 Temperature: 0.3318122278318339 ESS: 3.9999999999991207 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: NaN generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 40%|██████████▏ | ETA: 0:00:07 (15.47 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 62 logobjective: -3712.999946008858 Temperature: 0.9939401985084158 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.7759004222445665e-158 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3714.581495392629                         Computing... 42%|██████████▋ | ETA: 0:00:07 (15.43 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 70 logobjective: -3725.173178127992 Temperature: 0.997268039236989 accepted: true acceptancerate: 8.371419956779394e-11 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3725.8065534914713                         Computing... 43%|██████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:07 (15.59 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1072 Avgℓobjective: -3732.524495718343 Temperature: 0.9979746796109501 ESS: 3.9999984116958593 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.43022805808782916 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 44%|███████████▏ | ETA: 0:00:07 (15.48 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1077 Avgℓobjective: -3734.0904492744976 Temperature: 0.9987706013787226 ESS: 3.999999949420076 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9207642587248055 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 46%|███████████▍ | ETA: 0:00:07 (15.58 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 83 logobjective: -3732.8872521338985 Temperature: 0.9992539711661633 accepted: true acceptancerate: 4.369875390113177e-14 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3732.9239549379145                         Computing... 48%|███████████▉ | ETA: 0:00:06 (15.41 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1089 Avgℓobjective: -3737.4872916343643 Temperature: 0.9996293938593735 ESS: 3.9999999787563567 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8800992832578858 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 49%|████████████▏ | ETA: 0:00:06 (15.44 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 95 logobjective: -3734.540527638197 Temperature: 0.9997751832297667 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.09193291054346686 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -3734.7530385366745                         Computing... 50%|████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:06 (15.43 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1098 Avgℓobjective: -3737.845429268263 Temperature: 0.9998492896419403 ESS: 3.9999999999587086 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.017559021735925183 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 57%|██████████████▍ | ETA: 0:00:05 (13.86 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 30 logobjective: -3259.694257186969 Temperature: 0.8698915256370021 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.0 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3259.7669232441003                         Computing... 61%|███████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:05 (14.92 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1042 Avgℓobjective: -3592.2155042421164 Temperature: 0.9608342772032357 ESS: 3.9999988536722846 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.09374823068803062 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 64%|████████████████▏ | ETA: 0:00:04 (14.31 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 58 logobjective: -3701.70547992364 Temperature: 0.990986701347152 accepted: true acceptancerate: 2.995297558573146e-55 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3703.6351778521807                         Computing... 68%|████████████████▉ | ETA: 0:00:04 (13.99 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1069 Avgℓobjective: -3728.1734255355136 Temperature: 0.997268039236989 ESS: 3.999999954757944 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.7348280208837241 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 70%|█████████████████▍ | ETA: 0:00:03 (13.78 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1077 Avgℓobjective: -3733.6705755345456 Temperature: 0.9987706013787226 ESS: 3.999999951777348 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.35030176173942573 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 71%|█████████████████▉ | ETA: 0:00:03 (13.64 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 86 logobjective: -3735.2432928659023 Temperature: 0.9994472213630764 accepted: true acceptancerate: 4.804527201153813e-136 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3736.060344808591                         Computing... 74%|██████████████████▍ | ETA: 0:00:03 (13.42 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1093 Avgℓobjective: -3737.314315129124 Temperature: 0.9997515449181605 ESS: 3.999999999053 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.5931462211172551 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 76%|██████████████████▉ | ETA: 0:00:03 (13.22 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 3 logobjective: -16995.636735519463 Temperature: 0.31002551887238755 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.0 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -16998.117187565877                         Computing... 96%|███████████████████████▉ | ETA: 0:00:00 (12.20 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 83 logobjective: -3732.717831644939 Temperature: 0.9992539711661633 accepted: true acceptancerate: 2.540073319135536e-6 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3733.218003645059                         Computing... 97%|████████████████████████▍| ETA: 0:00:00 (12.13 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 90 logobjective: -3734.223408005833 Temperature: 0.9996293938593735 accepted: true acceptancerate: 4.721447552387204e-9 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3735.343255645425                         Computing... 99%|████████████████████████▊| ETA: 0:00:00 (12.07 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1095 Avgℓobjective: -3737.060146144789 Temperature: 0.9997965730219448 ESS: 3.9999999986239043 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.33557916719289016 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:09 (12.03 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1099 Avgℓobjective: -3737.921215051289 Temperature: 0.9998636296729204 ESS: 3.9999999999738494 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.3057562269105752 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -8322.517, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3734.982. NUTS sampler had 63 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.522 (2) number of steps and depth of 0.644 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 50, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 13, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -21425.453, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3734.927. NUTS sampler had 60 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.456 (3) number of steps and depth of 0.622 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 52, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 8, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2509.48, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3736.233. NUTS sampler had 53 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.622 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.733 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 45, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 8, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -6965.717, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3734.938. NUTS sampler had 50 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.489 (2) number of steps and depth of 0.733 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 42, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 8, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -8279.0, variance: 16.196 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -3737.934, variance: 0.205 Total number of jittering steps: 209. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.591, 0.005, 0.397, 0.828, 1.0]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [1.001, 3.984, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 2: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -18961.62, variance: 3.66173038e6 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -3738.151, variance: 0.7 Total number of jittering steps: 204. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.175, 0.208, 0.583, 0.888, 0.997]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [1.0, 3.823, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 3: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -2504.421, variance: 94.004 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -3737.989, variance: 0.149 Total number of jittering steps: 200. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.46, 0.072, 0.472, 0.747, 0.971]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [1.257, 3.994, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 4: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -6915.054, variance: 1969.695 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -3737.921, variance: 0.333 Total number of jittering steps: 203. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.537, 0.159, 0.554, 0.811, 0.992]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [1.009, 3.948, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.23 │ 0.286 │ 0.039 │ -0.171 │ -0.02 │ 0.163 │ 0.456 │ 0.842 │ 44.947 │ 249.644 │ 1.051 │ │ σ │ 11.258 │ 8.185 │ 1.18 │ 2.299 │ 9.812 │ 9.997 │ 10.204 │ 38.477 │ 49.325 │ 36.584 │ 1.157 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Computing... 0%| | ETA: 0:03:49 ( 0.29 s/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1100 Avgℓobjective: -914.0793236357274 Temperature: 0.289050497374996 ESS: 3.999999999873488 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.2642179774198939 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 6%|█▍ | ETA: 0:00:12 (15.28 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 123 logobjective: -1194.2429183971371 Temperature: 0.7685247834990178 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.4801033731789097e-9 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1195.917077847074                         Computing... 10%|██▋ | ETA: 0:00:09 (12.67 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 142 logobjective: -1480.1006168030324 Temperature: 0.9568927450589139 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.0 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1480.1575606390647                         Computing... 12%|███ | ETA: 0:00:08 (11.98 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 149 logobjective: -1511.66291894283 Temperature: 0.9781187290638694 accepted: true acceptancerate: 5.450587470711426e-60 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -1512.143155700622                         Computing... 14%|███▌ | ETA: 0:00:08 (11.61 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1154 Avgℓobjective: -1526.603095506588 Temperature: 0.9878715650157257 ESS: 3.9999958018748245 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.10213248062189095 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 16%|███▉ | ETA: 0:00:07 (11.04 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 163 logobjective: -1539.369561214179 Temperature: 0.9945137011005495 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.1736346559219835e-165 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 2 ℓH: -1539.6700598690807                         Computing... 22%|█████▌ | ETA: 0:00:05 ( 8.42 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1187 Avgℓobjective: -1544.8350332241325 Temperature: 0.9995473777767595 ESS: 3.9999999961483015 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.6671636228576361 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 29%|███████▎ | ETA: 0:00:04 ( 6.91 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1114 Avgℓobjective: -1052.1964223075092 Temperature: 0.598687660112452 ESS: 2.139597864558502 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8532166218917718 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 35%|████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:03 ( 6.38 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1140 Avgℓobjective: -1472.7734834269756 Temperature: 0.9525741268224334 ESS: 3.9994703190807592 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.638340569748186 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 39%|█████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:03 ( 6.07 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1156 Avgℓobjective: -1529.9114757295895 Temperature: 0.9900481981330957 ESS: 3.999998994769421 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.5841378424673189 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 43%|██████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:03 ( 5.85 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1171 Avgℓobjective: -1542.8327752518665 Temperature: 0.9977621514787236 ESS: 3.999999742571679 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8320335070941695 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 52%|█████████████▏ | ETA: 0:00:02 ( 5.07 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1109 Avgℓobjective: -795.1228907846256 Temperature: 0.47502081252106 ESS: 3.9105605834206707 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.28045980704154916 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 61%|███████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 4.73 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1142 Avgℓobjective: -1484.8483659175 Temperature: 0.9608342772032357 ESS: 3.999993103755916 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9127652998043974 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 67%|████████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 4.49 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1166 Avgℓobjective: -1539.407411183664 Temperature: 0.9963157601005641 ESS: 3.9999997367798783 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.6240050616965421 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 73%|██████████████████▏ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 4.31 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 191 logobjective: -1544.9224337694639 Temperature: 0.9996646498695336 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.8403262892693498e-140 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 2 ℓH: -1546.1746148096377                         Computing... 80%|████████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 4.09 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 120 logobjective: -1100.195463856609 Temperature: 0.7109495026250039 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.0709768367755744e-34 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -1100.7202896931983                         Computing... 87%|█████████████████████▋ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 3.95 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 147 logobjective: -1504.0143478883163 Temperature: 0.973403006423134 accepted: true acceptancerate: 7.263747207072746e-42 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1505.6256688371645                         Computing... 93%|███████████████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 3.82 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 172 logobjective: -1542.5873721051667 Temperature: 0.9977621514787236 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.2971595522155594e-182 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -1543.416655749734                         Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:02 ( 3.63 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1199 Avgℓobjective: -1544.9731660892012 Temperature: 0.9998636296729204 ESS: 3.9999999996544213 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9021463860594927 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1352.977, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1546.413. NUTS sampler had 59 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.667 (2) number of steps and depth of 0.8 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 53, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 6, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1217.171, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1545.335. NUTS sampler had 51 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.644 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.844 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 42, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 9, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -830.207, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1544.745. NUTS sampler had 49 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.633 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.878 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 39, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 10, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1115.15, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1544.842. NUTS sampler had 48 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.867 (3) number of steps and depth of 0.956 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 43, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 5, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1334.826, variance: 77.595 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1545.383, variance: 0.888 Total number of jittering steps: 269. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.525, 0.312, 0.681, 0.861, 1.0]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [2.435, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 2: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1211.226, variance: 73.404 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1546.159, variance: 2.091 Total number of jittering steps: 230. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.659, 0.315, 0.679, 0.864, 0.997]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.75, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [1.535, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 3: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -795.801, variance: 459.77 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1545.419, variance: 0.06 Total number of jittering steps: 171. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.736, 0.044, 0.47, 0.731, 1.0]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.739, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 4: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1049.006, variance: 1727.405 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1544.973, variance: 0.096 Total number of jittering steps: 191. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.501, 0.237, 0.644, 0.855, 1.0]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [2.009, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ -0.009 │ 0.104 │ 0.02 │ -0.096 │ -0.053 │ -0.028 │ -0.006 │ 0.357 │ 88.605 │ 27.517 │ 1.029 │ │ σ │ 1.017 │ 0.288 │ 0.026 │ 0.869 │ 0.965 │ 0.983 │ 0.997 │ 1.107 │ 228.212 │ 63.425 │ 1.037 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Computing... 0%|▏ | ETA: 0:02:37 ( 0.39 s/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 1 logobjective: -1868.060772456049 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.6628644500411783 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1868.3389423048475                         Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:00 ( 2.43 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 100 logobjective: -1868.8169144096773 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9997933683823239 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 39 ℓH: -1868.8450672974175 Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1868.647, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1871.282. NUTS sampler had 32 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 18.4 (15) number of steps and depth of 2.056 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 32, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1868.308, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1867.823. NUTS sampler had 12 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 12.667 (31) number of steps and depth of 2.1 (5). Divergences in: Warmup: 12, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1868.49, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1870.393. NUTS sampler had 27 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 15.367 (63) number of steps and depth of 2.167 (6). Divergences in: Warmup: 27, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.88, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1868.817. NUTS sampler had 19 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 20.267 (39) number of steps and depth of 2.211 (5). Divergences in: Warmup: 19, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.118 │ 0.35 │ 0.083 │ -0.354 │ -0.162 │ 0.116 │ 0.341 │ 0.834 │ 16.875 │ 69.477 │ 1.194 │ │ σ │ 10.034 │ 0.319 │ 0.072 │ 9.583 │ 9.797 │ 9.989 │ 10.18 │ 10.699 │ 22.718 │ 16.885 │ 1.178 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Computing... 0%|▏ | ETA: 0:01:33 ( 0.23 s/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 101 logobjective: -1868.5309807472233 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9986891823630181 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 55 ℓH: -1869.79402721838                         Computing... 15%|███▊ | ETA: 0:00:03 ( 9.39 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 116 logobjective: -1868.0341389176601 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9997193978642733 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 31 ℓH: -1868.6475401495254                         Computing... 36%|█████████ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 4.65 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 137 logobjective: -1867.816236903658 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9999891123491117 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 23 ℓH: -1868.1643742852798                         Computing... 80%|████████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 2.46 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 181 logobjective: -1868.2657046901559 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9991766202071994 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 15 ℓH: -1869.4678534111063                         Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:00 ( 2.11 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 200 logobjective: -1868.8141828207374 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9894186563052505 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 15 ℓH: -1869.851086314739 Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1868.121, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1869.923. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 30.467 (7) number of steps and depth of 4.067 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1868.776, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1868.201. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 20.489 (11) number of steps and depth of 3.656 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1868.532, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1868.989. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 22.311 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.733 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1868.695, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1868.814. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 26.667 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.933 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.301 │ 0.357 │ 0.036 │ -0.441 │ 0.072 │ 0.329 │ 0.53 │ 0.936 │ 98.21 │ 145.976 │ 1.038 │ │ σ │ 10.028 │ 0.304 │ 0.019 │ 9.473 │ 9.835 │ 10.018 │ 10.216 │ 10.665 │ 270.04 │ 223.052 │ 1.006 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Computing... 0%|▏ | ETA: 0:01:36 ( 0.24 s/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1000 Avgℓobjective: -1869.259479029375 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8274634772518323 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:00 ( 2.42 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1099 Avgℓobjective: -1870.297167095889 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.06917985896007853 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1869.633, variance: 0.16 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1870.297, variance: 1.646 Total number of jittering steps: 125. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.495, 0.079, 0.566, 0.788, 0.972]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 4.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.24 │ 0.393 │ 0.05 │ -0.458 │ -0.017 │ 0.224 │ 0.476 │ 1.06 │ 56.875 │ 77.269 │ 1.066 │ │ σ │ 10.052 │ 0.285 │ 0.022 │ 9.501 │ 9.873 │ 10.046 │ 10.237 │ 10.587 │ 177.069 │ 152.701 │ 1.031 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Computing... 67%|████████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 0.38 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1167 Avgℓobjective: -774.8915209325912 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8372607735936435 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:00 ( 0.43 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1199 Avgℓobjective: -774.0861817504868 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.12490407928496469 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -779.825, variance: 62.266 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -774.086, variance: 0.05 Total number of jittering steps: 201. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.184, 0.194, 0.588, 0.834, 0.967]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 9.55]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.016 │ 0.038 │ 0.006 │ -0.058 │ -0.01 │ 0.013 │ 0.04 │ 0.091 │ 35.526 │ 42.046 │ 1.106 │ │ σ │ 0.985 │ 0.035 │ 0.007 │ 0.929 │ 0.96 │ 0.984 │ 1.004 │ 1.062 │ 36.195 │ 30.065 │ 1.111 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Computing... 0%| | ETA: 0:05:59 ( 0.45 s/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1000 Avgℓobjective: -26936.381542750925 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: NaN generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 18%|████▌ | ETA: 0:00:06 ( 9.85 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1017 Avgℓobjective: -2815.8553031111833 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.5874580800963 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 21%|█████▍ | ETA: 0:00:08 (12.35 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 22 logobjective: -1869.892287371309 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 5.459883005897289e-5 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 2 ℓH: -1870.3659799233135                         Computing... 22%|█████▌ | ETA: 0:00:08 (12.72 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1021 Avgℓobjective: -2112.9007846603354 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.5646782013907804 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 23%|█████▊ | ETA: 0:00:08 (12.73 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1022 Avgℓobjective: -1986.3872324700976 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.460824686114014 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 24%|██████ | ETA: 0:00:08 (13.01 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1023 Avgℓobjective: -1986.741392798047 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.009839159906341488 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 25%|██████▎ | ETA: 0:00:08 (13.19 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 26 logobjective: -2680.3787191552765 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.07677710778421541 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -2680.405084102498                         Computing... 26%|██████▌ | ETA: 0:00:08 (13.21 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 27 logobjective: -2680.3787191552765 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.0 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -2680.8584993780973                         Computing... 27%|██████▊ | ETA: 0:00:08 (13.41 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1026 Avgℓobjective: -1987.3986946228242 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.901219422319244 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 29%|███████▎ | ETA: 0:00:08 (13.38 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 29 logobjective: -1868.734481276647 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.00046579643140239 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -1869.3161483978108                         Computing... 30%|███████▌ | ETA: 0:00:08 (13.41 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1029 Avgℓobjective: -1986.6754307525403 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9882282724967475 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 31%|███████▊ | ETA: 0:00:07 (13.51 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1030 Avgℓobjective: -1899.3119281618203 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9577216250443761 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 32%|███████▉ | ETA: 0:00:07 (13.63 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1031 Avgℓobjective: -1873.3867078251858 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8797179615654283 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 33%|████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:07 (13.55 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1032 Avgℓobjective: -1892.5825966785862 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.4942104953403603 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 35%|████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:07 (13.53 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1035 Avgℓobjective: -1883.8469781305798 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.35418822806316214 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 36%|█████████ | ETA: 0:00:07 (13.74 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1036 Avgℓobjective: -1882.7473155089 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.6966028524170159 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 38%|█████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:07 (13.90 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1037 Avgℓobjective: -1869.417418906432 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.6191260747844356 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 39%|█████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:07 (13.94 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1038 Avgℓobjective: -1869.2181799751377 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.49208503525673997 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 42%|██████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:06 (13.60 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1041 Avgℓobjective: -1869.7044497814932 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.7968467728481468 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 43%|██████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:06 (13.44 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1043 Avgℓobjective: -1870.5570716703373 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.5334408445066362 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 45%|███████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:06 (13.40 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1044 Avgℓobjective: -1869.6060026810956 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.7455631189814823 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 46%|███████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:06 (13.25 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1046 Avgℓobjective: -1870.5366826034292 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.7446966796820614 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 48%|███████████▉ | ETA: 0:00:06 (13.24 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 48 logobjective: -1870.3754908639519 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 2.3021370859910923e-63 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -1872.6145146659037                         Computing... 49%|████████████▏ | ETA: 0:00:05 (13.29 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 49 logobjective: -1868.202215820381 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 9.808581689024483e-74 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1869.284681071103                         Computing... 50%|████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:05 (13.42 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1049 Avgℓobjective: -1869.0745737867253 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.1717337086568611 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 51%|████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:05 (13.39 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1051 Avgℓobjective: -1869.283789473599 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.03326036460308596 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 53%|█████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:05 (13.36 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1052 Avgℓobjective: -1869.2694801069258 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.061927897929011544 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 54%|█████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:05 (13.40 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1053 Avgℓobjective: -1869.3825424523336 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.27079758504346785 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 54%|█████████████▋ | ETA: 0:00:05 (13.52 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1054 Avgℓobjective: -1873.0954412363712 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8022374474214136 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 56%|█████████████▉ | ETA: 0:00:05 (13.52 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1055 Avgℓobjective: -1873.1604559377279 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9599873977531708 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 57%|██████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:05 (13.60 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1056 Avgℓobjective: -1870.2116552029986 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.08806295906170208 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 58%|██████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:05 (13.63 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1057 Avgℓobjective: -1869.7963783204302 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.08502996810289792 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 59%|██████████████▉ | ETA: 0:00:04 (13.59 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 60 logobjective: -1881.9586370181587 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.0 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1882.027529839681                         Computing... 60%|███████████████▏ | ETA: 0:00:04 (13.56 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1060 Avgℓobjective: -1872.6194164934336 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9240426937769153 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 62%|███████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:04 (13.54 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 62 logobjective: -1868.871440645471 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.2328222590455547e-20 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1868.980168939031                         Computing... 63%|███████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:04 (13.61 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 63 logobjective: -1868.664636404148 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 5.4636883454520345e-9 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1869.1224422837051                         Computing... 64%|████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:04 (13.69 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1063 Avgℓobjective: -1869.2711633384984 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.2922898750503939 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 65%|████████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:04 (13.64 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 66 logobjective: -1867.924243961744 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.21549184823110287 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -1869.7466382964478                         Computing... 66%|████████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:04 (13.64 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1066 Avgℓobjective: -1869.461519391551 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.4296421197863052 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 68%|████████████████▉ | ETA: 0:00:04 (13.61 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1067 Avgℓobjective: -1872.7780197044742 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9351067662419652 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 68%|█████████████████▏ | ETA: 0:00:03 (13.65 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1068 Avgℓobjective: -1873.1791572417635 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9762573138412691 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 70%|█████████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:03 (13.66 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1069 Avgℓobjective: -1869.8424834992945 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.4365558731498288 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 71%|█████████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:03 (13.69 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1070 Avgℓobjective: -1869.9502428445414 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.05372189937614036 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 72%|██████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:03 (13.61 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1072 Avgℓobjective: -1869.277731014772 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.28304789351229914 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 73%|██████████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:03 (13.64 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1073 Avgℓobjective: -1869.8834479332872 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.27374601299572465 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 74%|██████████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:03 (13.67 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1074 Avgℓobjective: -1869.1997833234248 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.45805572723811494 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 75%|██████████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:03 (13.71 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1074 Avgℓobjective: -1870.3883028516268 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.6512903119990543 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 77%|███████████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:03 (13.64 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 77 logobjective: -1867.691778420998 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 4.7777766697473447e-5 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1868.6205577183448                         Computing... 78%|███████████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:02 (13.59 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 79 logobjective: -1867.7073876964507 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.1755266645440429 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -1868.5106735333286                         Computing... 79%|███████████████████▉ | ETA: 0:00:02 (13.55 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 80 logobjective: -1869.2230924850533 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.09231420313763898 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -1869.862318847614                         Computing... 81%|████████████████████▏ | ETA: 0:00:02 (13.52 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 81 logobjective: -1867.7818517779915 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.07761346707666442 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -1868.3793489943641                         Computing... 82%|████████████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:02 (13.57 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1081 Avgℓobjective: -1869.484832659368 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.7462022540774242 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 83%|████████████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:02 (13.61 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1082 Avgℓobjective: -1869.6434356743382 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.2609857735448477 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 84%|█████████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:02 (13.66 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1083 Avgℓobjective: -1870.211535475536 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.17760657229245733 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 85%|█████████████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:02 (13.70 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1085 Avgℓobjective: -1869.1478420098765 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.19914214189309498 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 87%|█████████████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:01 (13.63 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1086 Avgℓobjective: -1870.3449132648943 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.11713920454364707 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 88%|██████████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:01 (13.67 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1087 Avgℓobjective: -1870.6999631465299 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.01525989905361691 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 88%|██████████████████████▏ | ETA: 0:00:01 (13.71 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1088 Avgℓobjective: -1869.3077087177694 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.12524320198433064 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 89%|██████████████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:01 (13.75 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1089 Avgℓobjective: -1870.1679414058076 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.012752340109528193 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 91%|██████████████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:01 (13.69 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1090 Avgℓobjective: -1869.7420417111898 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.06202322722844483 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 92%|███████████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:01 (13.65 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1092 Avgℓobjective: -1870.1861215915715 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.3610396609770726 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 94%|███████████████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:01 (13.56 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1093 Avgℓobjective: -1870.2984015056036 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.7821816380829497 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 95%|███████████████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:01 (13.63 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1095 Avgℓobjective: -1869.7732559373717 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.44390728318920564 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 96%|████████████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:00 (13.69 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1095 Avgℓobjective: -1869.7715820891754 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.11730402463041145 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 98%|████████████████████████▍| ETA: 0:00:00 (13.63 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1097 Avgℓobjective: -1869.226605128313 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.20073024377351797 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 99%|████████████████████████▊| ETA: 0:00:00 (13.56 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1098 Avgℓobjective: -1869.8832186855643 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.6339435470397526 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:10 (13.57 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1099 Avgℓobjective: -1869.539050327771 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.1127678433595165 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -7846.944, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1874.66. NUTS sampler had 36 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.789 (3) number of steps and depth of 0.867 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 31, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 5, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -6518.007, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1867.738. NUTS sampler had 49 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.878 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.811 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 44, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 5, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -7578.523, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1868.006. NUTS sampler had 35 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.7 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.867 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 29, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 6, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -8055.524, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1868.884. NUTS sampler had 40 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.978 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.922 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 35, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 5, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -7442.41, variance: 8.465671904e6 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1871.568, variance: 13.682 Total number of jittering steps: 250. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.259, 0.224, 0.519, 0.78, 0.96]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 2: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -10481.549, variance: 8.374926772e7 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1869.167, variance: 0.107 Total number of jittering steps: 164. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.025, 0.474, 0.823, 0.919, 0.982]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 8.325]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 3: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -10996.405, variance: 4.5660265675e7 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1869.812, variance: 1.433 Total number of jittering steps: 241. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.45, 0.088, 0.436, 0.784, 0.984]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 4: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -11116.354, variance: 2.3209693484e7 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1869.539, variance: 0.489 Total number of jittering steps: 233. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.65, 0.062, 0.401, 0.722, 0.982]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.207 │ 0.383 │ 0.023 │ -0.535 │ 0.023 │ 0.139 │ 0.445 │ 1.04 │ 276.987 │ 284.598 │ 1.052 │ │ σ │ 11.398 │ 13.881 │ 0.777 │ 2.115 │ 9.785 │ 10.05 │ 10.319 │ 22.392 │ 162.046 │ 68.698 │ 1.07 │ └───┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Computing... 0%| | ETA: 0:03:38 ( 0.27 s/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1100 Avgℓobjective: -1509.8853696449178 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.17911530900075964 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 4%|█ | ETA: 0:00:15 (19.51 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1104 Avgℓobjective: -987.3467482846709 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9431184241380672 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 8%|██ | ETA: 0:00:12 (15.63 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1107 Avgℓobjective: -802.7297307583909 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.07289437394053766 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 10%|██▌ | ETA: 0:00:10 (13.77 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1109 Avgℓobjective: -790.1972224745022 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8699560789928762 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 15%|███▊ | ETA: 0:00:07 ( 9.78 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 116 logobjective: -785.9967221633224 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 2.5809461738090044e-49 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -788.625541447445                         Computing... 21%|█████▎ | ETA: 0:00:05 ( 7.68 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1120 Avgℓobjective: -787.3560102238464 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8957453203901096 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 28%|██████▉ | ETA: 0:00:04 ( 6.35 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1127 Avgℓobjective: -785.6676884237639 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.4777428176314427 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 35%|████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:03 ( 5.40 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1134 Avgℓobjective: -785.9215347815924 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.910065568148904 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 42%|██████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:02 ( 4.79 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 142 logobjective: -786.0938339218357 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 7.061917700039725e-11 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -786.485931466676                         Computing... 51%|████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:02 ( 4.22 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1150 Avgℓobjective: -786.5531602089898 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.1027802815335572 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 63%|███████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 3.65 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1162 Avgℓobjective: -786.7064205550312 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8563283225628556 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 82%|████████████████████▋ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 2.93 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1182 Avgℓobjective: -785.8111822510631 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.7206688017163082 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:02 ( 2.57 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1199 Avgℓobjective: -786.8538284803458 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.11264016016373107 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -785.929, Avg. final ℓposterior: -785.357. NUTS sampler had 31 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.722 (3) number of steps and depth of 0.978 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 24, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 7, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -786.129, Avg. final ℓposterior: -785.642. NUTS sampler had 45 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.978 (1) number of steps and depth of 1.011 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 41, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 4, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -786.074, Avg. final ℓposterior: -786.863. NUTS sampler had 37 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.744 (3) number of steps and depth of 0.978 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 29, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 8, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -785.506, Avg. final ℓposterior: -785.293. NUTS sampler had 33 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.756 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.989 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 28, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 5, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -785.698, variance: 0.082 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -786.458, variance: 2.396 Total number of jittering steps: 162. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.668, 0.2, 0.721, 0.873, 0.976]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 5.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 2: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -826.919, variance: 6564.081 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -786.309, variance: 0.253 Total number of jittering steps: 160. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.466, 0.094, 0.461, 0.664, 0.958]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 6.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 3: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -790.467, variance: 63.343 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -786.736, variance: 0.915 Total number of jittering steps: 136. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.064, 0.316, 0.626, 0.839, 0.973]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 3.775]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 4: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -789.815, variance: 51.717 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -786.854, variance: 1.603 Total number of jittering steps: 248. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.7, 0.261, 0.659, 0.845, 0.995]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.022 │ 0.041 │ 0.004 │ -0.054 │ -0.009 │ 0.025 │ 0.052 │ 0.096 │ 137.072 │ 218.155 │ 1.034 │ │ σ │ 1.01 │ 0.038 │ 0.002 │ 0.954 │ 0.987 │ 1.01 │ 1.03 │ 1.064 │ 253.267 │ 269.494 │ 1.022 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Computing... 0%|▏ | ETA: 0:02:33 ( 0.39 s/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 1 logobjective: -1867.8799667514077 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.6685371079271348e-8 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -1873.4853441153584                         Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:00 ( 2.32 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 100 logobjective: -2039.9836844750396 Temperature: 0.5460980646457352 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9999641587802587 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 47 ℓH: -2040.1998186426165 Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1885.88, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2042.697. NUTS sampler had 31 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 10.844 (79) number of steps and depth of 1.956 (6). Divergences in: Warmup: 31, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1886.278, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2042.279. NUTS sampler had 18 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.322 (95) number of steps and depth of 2.189 (6). Divergences in: Warmup: 18, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1886.014, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2041.308. NUTS sampler had 24 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 13.889 (31) number of steps and depth of 2.067 (5). Divergences in: Warmup: 24, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1885.992, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2039.984. NUTS sampler had 29 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 9.433 (47) number of steps and depth of 1.956 (5). Divergences in: Warmup: 29, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.345 │ 0.299 │ 0.081 │ -0.192 │ 0.132 │ 0.364 │ 0.528 │ 0.92 │ 12.176 │ 64.958 │ 1.275 │ │ σ │ 9.961 │ 0.311 │ 0.076 │ 9.391 │ 9.815 │ 9.986 │ 10.161 │ 10.695 │ 21.588 │ 7.652 │ 1.16 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Computing... 0%|▏ | ETA: 0:01:28 ( 0.22 s/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 101 logobjective: -2041.5698939547347 Temperature: 0.5465413282544795 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9998793085300923 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 63 ℓH: -2042.1989690423218                         Computing... 23%|█████▊ | ETA: 0:00:02 ( 6.08 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 123 logobjective: -2078.682371596666 Temperature: 0.556184355379786 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9998773946303744 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 15 ℓH: -2080.1297589390533                         Computing... 62%|███████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 2.68 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 162 logobjective: -2139.598982216174 Temperature: 0.572777602395081 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9999478761687531 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 15 ℓH: -2140.996666574019                         Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:00 ( 1.93 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 200 logobjective: -2197.9632049212732 Temperature: 0.5883484625830675 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9987745929088764 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 23 ℓH: -2198.793552885693 Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2059.163, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2198.562. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 21.533 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.811 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2058.856, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2199.206. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 24.733 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.889 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2058.665, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2198.222. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 29.111 (31) number of steps and depth of 4.311 (5). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2058.072, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2197.963. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.378 (23) number of steps and depth of 3.556 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.284 │ 0.471 │ 0.05 │ -0.558 │ -0.053 │ 0.263 │ 0.63 │ 1.149 │ 90.066 │ 136.72 │ 1.031 │ │ σ │ 10.036 │ 0.266 │ 0.014 │ 9.544 │ 9.856 │ 10.04 │ 10.217 │ 10.509 │ 349.912 │ 250.247 │ 1.01 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Computing... 0%|▏ | ETA: 0:01:34 ( 0.24 s/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1000 Avgℓobjective: -1869.503405469174 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8189404950060135 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 43%|██████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 3.69 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1043 Avgℓobjective: -1946.3829615238392 Temperature: 0.520571200826568 ESS: 3.9999990868438577 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.48987160055970713 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 69%|█████████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 2.86 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1069 Avgℓobjective: -1991.1393549944823 Temperature: 0.5325967559441706 ESS: 3.9999979294871255 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.15088567447233014 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:00 ( 2.23 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1099 Avgℓobjective: -2042.4281388291656 Temperature: 0.5460980646457352 ESS: 3.9999997184953693 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9349032820141372 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1887.351, variance: 0.263 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -2042.428, variance: 0.767 Total number of jittering steps: 119. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.602, 0.059, 0.464, 0.705, 0.95]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 4.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.292 │ 0.366 │ 0.035 │ -0.393 │ 0.008 │ 0.303 │ 0.568 │ 0.987 │ 113.056 │ 157.256 │ 1.018 │ │ σ │ 10.051 │ 0.294 │ 0.018 │ 9.448 │ 9.873 │ 10.051 │ 10.235 │ 10.64 │ 279.117 │ 250.55 │ 1.006 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Computing... 71%|█████████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 0.37 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1171 Avgℓobjective: -917.1779162988327 Temperature: 0.5769314093897541 ESS: 3.99999955477449 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.7907367974672062 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:00 ( 0.46 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1199 Avgℓobjective: -935.3726868166628 Temperature: 0.5883484625830675 ESS: 3.999997596033752 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.37297272738219245 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -876.833, variance: 1.277 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -935.373, variance: 0.184 Total number of jittering steps: 205. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.629, 0.088, 0.4, 0.709, 0.916]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 9.775]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ -0.038 │ 0.041 │ 0.003 │ -0.113 │ -0.07 │ -0.038 │ -0.011 │ 0.042 │ 185.338 │ 215.528 │ 1.009 │ │ σ │ 1.026 │ 0.025 │ 0.002 │ 0.982 │ 1.009 │ 1.025 │ 1.038 │ 1.086 │ 132.816 │ 133.438 │ 1.055 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Computing... 0%| | ETA: 0:06:00 ( 0.45 s/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1000 Avgℓobjective: -24442.58776959764 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: NaN generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 22%|█████▋ | ETA: 0:00:09 (15.05 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1022 Avgℓobjective: -1909.8572647382766 Temperature: 0.510632751920023 ESS: 3.9999993633445925 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.5610673936471466 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 24%|██████ | ETA: 0:00:10 (16.19 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1023 Avgℓobjective: -1934.640378906191 Temperature: 0.511110649623226 ESS: 3.9942842840939545 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.14259484796751398 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 24%|██████▏ | ETA: 0:00:10 (16.33 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 25 logobjective: -1912.1123918040735 Temperature: 0.5115880806294534 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.000914142104235616 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 2 ℓH: -1915.0077167666502                         Computing... 25%|██████▎ | ETA: 0:00:10 (16.69 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1024 Avgℓobjective: -1917.7852918297267 Temperature: 0.5115880806294534 ESS: 3.9995880699180923 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8803373331461888 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 26%|██████▍ | ETA: 0:00:10 (17.32 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1025 Avgℓobjective: -1914.331547057786 Temperature: 0.5120650453944637 ESS: 3.999999468054211 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.5542884229779375 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 28%|███████ | ETA: 0:00:11 (18.37 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1027 Avgℓobjective: -1918.2846496203215 Temperature: 0.5130175780216433 ESS: 3.9999963532435365 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.35916861886259865 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 28%|███████▏ | ETA: 0:00:11 (18.89 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1028 Avgℓobjective: -1920.0014511427194 Temperature: 0.5134931467931065 ESS: 3.9999997503819267 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.3140227886119623 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 30%|███████▍ | ETA: 0:00:11 (18.92 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1029 Avgℓobjective: -1921.9876613528897 Temperature: 0.5139682511419414 ESS: 3.9999993069576005 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.4973554370702684 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 32%|████████ | ETA: 0:00:10 (19.01 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1031 Avgℓobjective: -1948.8793955725866 Temperature: 0.514917068385434 ESS: 3.994320363232735 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.5517580263476655 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 33%|████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:10 (19.09 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1032 Avgℓobjective: -1927.4738916127576 Temperature: 0.5153907821858389 ESS: 3.999999524067615 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.7133745147368198 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 34%|████████▍ | ETA: 0:00:10 (19.34 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 34 logobjective: -2023.735027130126 Temperature: 0.5158640333751106 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.0 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -2024.0180030211661                         Computing... 37%|█████████▍ | ETA: 0:00:09 (18.65 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 38 logobjective: -1936.567220536394 Temperature: 0.5177524210496237 accepted: true acceptancerate: 3.790319249876765e-33 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 2 ℓH: -1937.3734441901786                         Computing... 40%|██████████ | ETA: 0:00:09 (18.01 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1039 Avgℓobjective: -1940.2345154189036 Temperature: 0.5186938509451311 ESS: 3.9999978902211124 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.3343094036172697 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 44%|███████████ | ETA: 0:00:07 (16.48 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1044 Avgℓobjective: -1948.1999330615768 Temperature: 0.5210393930132609 ESS: 3.9999976392366263 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8403153333628408 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 49%|████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:06 (15.19 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 49 logobjective: -1954.4231682830698 Temperature: 0.5229075940335577 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.02005259163088349 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -1954.6389258143388                         Computing... 55%|█████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:05 (13.88 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1054 Avgℓobjective: -1965.4573184235223 Temperature: 0.5256962413681878 ESS: 3.9999998474150114 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.01808091824312471 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 59%|██████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:04 (13.08 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 60 logobjective: -1974.5687635190416 Temperature: 0.5280076587916458 accepted: true acceptancerate: 3.925659066645133e-21 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1975.1431615357515                         Computing... 64%|████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:04 (12.27 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 65 logobjective: -1982.0264717039906 Temperature: 0.5303078120190942 accepted: true acceptancerate: 7.902508847246322e-8 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 2 ℓH: -1982.0596670166965                         Computing... 69%|█████████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:03 (11.60 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1068 Avgℓobjective: -1991.2756494169657 Temperature: 0.5321398612774493 ESS: 3.9999939513951643 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8702640223282727 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 74%|██████████████████▍ | ETA: 0:00:02 (11.12 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1073 Avgℓobjective: -1998.292010379287 Temperature: 0.5344198771042357 ESS: 3.9999428308715275 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.6944533173260159 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 78%|███████████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:02 (10.69 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1077 Avgℓobjective: -2004.9451714098202 Temperature: 0.5362358871224622 ESS: 3.9999996394816457 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9218251836651188 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 82%|████████████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:02 (10.39 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1081 Avgℓobjective: -2012.0094351244386 Temperature: 0.5380448137360843 ESS: 3.9999999785520597 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.8958481113734134 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 85%|█████████████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:01 (10.13 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1085 Avgℓobjective: -2019.6239557058145 Temperature: 0.5398466845741461 ESS: 3.9999968697372967 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8519441131548404 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 88%|██████████████████████▏ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 9.93 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1088 Avgℓobjective: -2023.5467006203685 Temperature: 0.5411934739097883 ESS: 3.999999695040062 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.7113250444821237 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 92%|███████████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 9.70 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1091 Avgℓobjective: -2028.191093105249 Temperature: 0.5425363214254898 ESS: 3.9999999606794545 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.05441925427058114 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 96%|████████████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 9.44 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1095 Avgℓobjective: -2034.9984152931697 Temperature: 0.5443206729955248 ESS: 3.9999989020098696 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.26425379878848543 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 99%|█████████████████████████| ETA: 0:00:00 ( 9.23 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 100 logobjective: -2041.1983195323837 Temperature: 0.5460980646457352 accepted: true acceptancerate: 9.634907604683732e-9 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -2043.7218312389891                         Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:07 ( 9.23 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1099 Avgℓobjective: -2041.8181344876011 Temperature: 0.5460980646457352 ESS: 3.99999924534032 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.1908911146288162 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -7395.803, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2039.894. NUTS sampler had 37 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.922 (3) number of steps and depth of 0.944 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 33, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 4, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -7723.316, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2040.353. NUTS sampler had 35 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.989 (3) number of steps and depth of 1.0 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 29, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 6, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -3507.321, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2040.776. NUTS sampler had 34 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.911 (3) number of steps and depth of 0.9 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 33, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 1, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -4629.537, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2041.198. NUTS sampler had 46 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 2.378 (3) number of steps and depth of 0.967 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 40, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 6, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -6717.741, variance: 795609.062 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -2043.084, variance: 2.291 Total number of jittering steps: 167. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.166, 0.167, 0.528, 0.785, 0.958]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 6.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [2.433, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 2: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -7426.129, variance: 28695.798 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -2041.697, variance: 0.093 Total number of jittering steps: 211. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.52, 0.113, 0.402, 0.692, 0.913]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.007, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 3: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -3667.92, variance: 675306.361 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -2041.783, variance: 0.407 Total number of jittering steps: 200. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.647, 0.074, 0.322, 0.76, 0.98]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.865, 3.994, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 4: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -4502.613, variance: 63227.919 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -2041.818, variance: 0.299 Total number of jittering steps: 173. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.182, 0.18, 0.635, 0.836, 0.975]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 5.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.275, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.232 │ 0.387 │ 0.033 │ -0.451 │ -0.041 │ 0.178 │ 0.513 │ 0.959 │ 167.71 │ 270.825 │ 1.067 │ │ σ │ 9.732 │ 2.073 │ 0.223 │ 3.277 │ 9.76 │ 9.969 │ 10.214 │ 11.012 │ 131.134 │ 70.416 │ 1.027 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Computing... 0%| | ETA: 0:03:40 ( 0.28 s/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1100 Avgℓobjective: -1818.2584870891924 Temperature: 0.5465413282544795 ESS: 3.9999954645671085 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.5679220848169673 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 13%|███▎ | ETA: 0:00:05 ( 7.30 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1112 Avgℓobjective: -848.6863394466152 Temperature: 0.551826847945094 ESS: 3.999977363791233 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.48905963439233907 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 24%|█████▉ | ETA: 0:00:03 ( 4.56 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1123 Avgℓobjective: -856.1637775337495 Temperature: 0.5566177690952354 ESS: 3.9999989793770627 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.0513073932582335 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 35%|████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:02 ( 3.41 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1135 Avgℓobjective: -863.6370163321503 Temperature: 0.5617858376711318 ESS: 3.999998235815638 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.5739854081096969 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 47%|███████████▋ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 2.86 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 147 logobjective: -870.5585734061732 Temperature: 0.5664702983287299 accepted: true acceptancerate: 3.1793107953892395e-9 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 2 ℓH: -870.804912687759                         Computing... 60%|██████████████▉ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 2.47 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1159 Avgℓobjective: -878.729044973175 Temperature: 0.5719419597632024 ESS: 3.9999990874501354 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9916441673386763 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 73%|██████████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 2.19 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1173 Avgℓobjective: -888.1661777158517 Temperature: 0.5777573117611409 ESS: 3.9999980856594193 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.47112697632998973 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 87%|█████████████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 1.99 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1187 Avgℓobjective: -897.2698734220219 Temperature: 0.5834936597089716 ESS: 3.999999576755896 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.3478971864489757 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:01 ( 1.85 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1199 Avgℓobjective: -904.321115859995 Temperature: 0.5883484625830675 ESS: 3.999999959324311 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.3378919368840017 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -846.192, Avg. final ℓposterior: -903.829. NUTS sampler had 37 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.722 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.989 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 31, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 6, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -847.511, Avg. final ℓposterior: -903.438. NUTS sampler had 33 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 2.0 (3) number of steps and depth of 1.022 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 27, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 6, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -855.383, Avg. final ℓposterior: -905.065. NUTS sampler had 30 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.744 (3) number of steps and depth of 1.0 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 28, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 2, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -846.031, Avg. final ℓposterior: -903.689. NUTS sampler had 34 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.767 (1) number of steps and depth of 1.011 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 29, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 5, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -847.229, variance: 0.434 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -904.013, variance: 0.222 Total number of jittering steps: 99. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.561, 0.121, 0.356, 0.657, 0.926]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 2: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -852.251, variance: 41.795 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -903.866, variance: 0.152 Total number of jittering steps: 218. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.447, 0.136, 0.602, 0.79, 0.955]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 9.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 3: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -850.26, variance: 23.03 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -904.467, variance: 0.436 Total number of jittering steps: 172. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.507, 0.075, 0.385, 0.708, 0.978]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 4: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -859.355, variance: 639.715 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -904.321, variance: 0.22 Total number of jittering steps: 91. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.656, -0.007, 0.292, 0.623, 0.849]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ -0.027 │ 0.045 │ 0.002 │ -0.108 │ -0.051 │ -0.025 │ 0.003 │ 0.05 │ 350.89 │ 330.509 │ 1.01 │ │ σ │ 0.977 │ 0.026 │ 0.001 │ 0.928 │ 0.959 │ 0.975 │ 0.994 │ 1.029 │ 307.029 │ 198.818 │ 1.016 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -385.005, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2254.977. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 14.612 (3) number of steps and depth of 3.298 (2). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -383.963, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2253.377. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 16.5 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.404 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -384.854, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2255.5. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 15.664 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.382 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -385.661, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2253.005. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 15.288 (19) number of steps and depth of 3.348 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.198 │ 0.54 │ 0.027 │ -0.948 │ -0.14 │ 0.197 │ 0.559 │ 1.282 │ 412.063 │ 399.423 │ 1.021 │ │ σ │ 10.304 │ 0.502 │ 0.051 │ 9.058 │ 10.052 │ 10.337 │ 10.61 │ 11.242 │ 116.885 │ 84.929 │ 1.046 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 400. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 400 Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2256.69, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.963. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 14.435 (7) number of steps and depth of 3.308 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2256.345, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3736.192. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 15.41 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.438 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2257.237, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3736.985. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 14.955 (7) number of steps and depth of 3.378 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2256.362, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.706. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 16.16 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.482 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.146 │ 0.352 │ 0.017 │ -0.566 │ -0.093 │ 0.156 │ 0.39 │ 0.794 │ 430.395 │ 481.101 │ 1.028 │ │ σ │ 10.088 │ 0.282 │ 0.044 │ 9.565 │ 9.891 │ 10.073 │ 10.268 │ 10.669 │ 40.725 │ 812.987 │ 1.067 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -385.819, variance: 0.496 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -2256.905, variance: 5.43 Total number of jittering steps: 535. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.514, 0.03, 0.353, 0.653, 0.941]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.913, 3.989, 3.995, 3.998, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.202 │ 0.537 │ 0.056 │ -0.929 │ -0.136 │ 0.236 │ 0.566 │ 1.167 │ 97.92 │ 475.876 │ 1.055 │ │ σ │ 10.309 │ 0.546 │ 0.062 │ 9.004 │ 10.022 │ 10.337 │ 10.664 │ 11.31 │ 89.706 │ 79.194 │ 1.029 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1934.629, variance: 866.938 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1555.514, variance: 0.342 Total number of jittering steps: 654. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.724, 0.055, 0.397, 0.678, 0.949]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 4.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.967, 3.995, 3.998, 3.999, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ -0.022 │ 0.056 │ 0.002 │ -0.093 │ -0.048 │ -0.025 │ -0.002 │ 0.048 │ 650.201 │ 674.706 │ 1.004 │ │ σ │ 1.04 │ 0.629 │ 0.027 │ 0.942 │ 0.97 │ 0.987 │ 1.004 │ 1.041 │ 522.34 │ 487.698 │ 1.009 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel SMC2Kernel Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 97.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -158.397, variance: 0.837 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -973.34, variance: 3.41 Total number of jittering steps: 93. Rejuvenations on average every 33.333 step, every 20.833 steps in first half, every 83.333 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.31, 0.058, 0.163, 0.264, 0.487]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [2.0, 3.5, 6.0, 9.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [2.974, 3.332, 3.567, 3.752, 3.99] for 4 chains. ┌────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ1 │ -0.229 │ 0.994 │ 0.184 │ -2.939 │ -0.504 │ -0.068 │ 0.335 │ 1.007 │ 24.796 │ 27.678 │ 1.236 │ │ μ2 │ 1.948 │ 0.062 │ 0.007 │ 1.805 │ 1.916 │ 1.963 │ 1.985 │ 2.054 │ 66.773 │ 44.836 │ 1.09 │ │ σ1 │ 2.026 │ 0.539 │ 0.108 │ 1.402 │ 1.708 │ 1.908 │ 2.243 │ 3.933 │ 23.353 │ 65.855 │ 1.15 │ │ σ2 │ 0.964 │ 0.045 │ 0.007 │ 0.891 │ 0.933 │ 0.959 │ 1.002 │ 1.052 │ 43.503 │ 59.898 │ 1.1 │ │ p1 │ 0.15 │ 0.05 │ 0.016 │ 0.038 │ 0.126 │ 0.155 │ 0.183 │ 0.243 │ 9.376 │ NaN │ 1.361 │ │ p2 │ 0.85 │ 0.05 │ 0.016 │ 0.757 │ 0.817 │ 0.845 │ 0.874 │ 0.962 │ 9.376 │ 9.228 │ 1.361 │ └────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel SMC2Kernel Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 98.4%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -976.795, variance: 3.647 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1588.333, variance: 5.24 Total number of jittering steps: 67. Rejuvenations on average every 62.5 step, every 41.667 steps in first half, every 125.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [0.05, 0.32, 0.583, 0.698, 0.74]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [2.525, 8.75, 10.0, 10.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.038, 3.487, 3.748, 3.911, 3.992] for 4 chains. ┌────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ1 │ -0.04 │ 0.138 │ 0.023 │ -0.259 │ -0.134 │ -0.026 │ 0.035 │ 0.369 │ 20.343 │ 13.336 │ 1.449 │ │ μ2 │ 0.688 │ 0.611 │ 0.212 │ -0.127 │ 0.101 │ 0.633 │ 1.155 │ 1.985 │ 8.938 │ 12.904 │ 1.379 │ │ σ1 │ 1.046 │ 0.183 │ 0.022 │ 0.904 │ 0.982 │ 1.015 │ 1.036 │ 1.843 │ 12.852 │ 11.699 │ 1.798 │ │ σ2 │ 0.898 │ 0.224 │ 0.081 │ 0.473 │ 0.734 │ 0.97 │ 1.059 │ 1.163 │ 6.927 │ 13.206 │ 1.603 │ │ p1 │ 0.837 │ 0.185 │ 0.043 │ 0.167 │ 0.805 │ 0.876 │ 0.944 │ 0.993 │ 8.197 │ NaN │ 1.427 │ │ p2 │ 0.163 │ 0.185 │ 0.043 │ 0.007 │ 0.056 │ 0.124 │ 0.195 │ 0.833 │ 8.197 │ 10.827 │ 1.427 │ └────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -111.554, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2253.13. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 16.196 (19) number of steps and depth of 3.386 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -111.177, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2255.04. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 16.956 (3) number of steps and depth of 3.482 (2). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -110.645, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2254.445. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.352 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.448 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -110.806, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2253.711. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 15.84 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.33 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.197 │ 0.532 │ 0.034 │ -0.867 │ -0.13 │ 0.211 │ 0.54 │ 1.237 │ 230.761 │ 521.778 │ 1.024 │ │ σ │ 10.31 │ 0.539 │ 0.056 │ 8.92 │ 10.056 │ 10.325 │ 10.628 │ 11.362 │ 110.215 │ 91.772 │ 1.056 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 400. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 400 Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -652.182, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3736.697. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 16.04 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.445 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -653.935, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.798. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.64 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.59 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -652.208, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.404. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 16.09 (27) number of steps and depth of 3.422 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -652.868, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3736.062. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 14.46 (3) number of steps and depth of 3.318 (2). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.148 │ 0.361 │ 0.021 │ -0.583 │ -0.088 │ 0.14 │ 0.373 │ 0.851 │ 268.173 │ 317.104 │ 1.027 │ │ σ │ 10.091 │ 0.279 │ 0.042 │ 9.595 │ 9.901 │ 10.079 │ 10.271 │ 10.661 │ 44.417 │ 873.884 │ 1.067 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -111.959, variance: 0.406 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -2256.202, variance: 0.06 Total number of jittering steps: 532. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.559, 0.01, 0.313, 0.663, 0.938]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.86, 3.988, 3.995, 3.998, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.242 │ 0.555 │ 0.039 │ -0.908 │ -0.09 │ 0.254 │ 0.596 │ 1.266 │ 208.151 │ 391.628 │ 1.032 │ │ σ │ 10.281 │ 0.547 │ 0.062 │ 8.954 │ 10.003 │ 10.312 │ 10.631 │ 11.212 │ 92.818 │ 75.11 │ 1.056 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -545.239, variance: 656.778 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1530.359, variance: 0.014 Total number of jittering steps: 614. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.678, 0.042, 0.365, 0.684, 0.938]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.543, 3.995, 3.998, 3.999, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.025 │ 0.08 │ 0.004 │ -0.052 │ -0.006 │ 0.019 │ 0.041 │ 0.1 │ 203.284 │ 180.228 │ 1.027 │ │ σ │ 1.071 │ 0.756 │ 0.055 │ 0.928 │ 0.957 │ 0.972 │ 0.988 │ 1.877 │ 253.14 │ 83.431 │ 1.025 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel SMC2Kernel Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 97.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -46.866, variance: 0.383 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -971.691, variance: 5.522 Total number of jittering steps: 101. Rejuvenations on average every 33.333 step, every 20.833 steps in first half, every 83.333 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.396, 0.026, 0.172, 0.437, 0.595]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 4.0, 6.0, 10.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [2.99, 3.339, 3.6, 3.842, 3.99] for 4 chains. ┌────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ1 │ -0.276 │ 0.929 │ 0.133 │ -2.391 │ -0.723 │ -0.076 │ 0.291 │ 1.391 │ 46.368 │ 49.284 │ 1.063 │ │ μ2 │ 1.946 │ 0.082 │ 0.013 │ 1.785 │ 1.895 │ 1.94 │ 2.017 │ 2.099 │ 43.619 │ 42.511 │ 1.059 │ │ σ1 │ 2.013 │ 0.758 │ 0.134 │ 1.034 │ 1.7 │ 1.888 │ 2.153 │ 4.057 │ 30.026 │ 30.566 │ 1.115 │ │ σ2 │ 0.972 │ 0.063 │ 0.012 │ 0.882 │ 0.923 │ 0.965 │ 1.02 │ 1.086 │ 25.9 │ 34.29 │ 1.119 │ │ p1 │ 0.148 │ 0.063 │ 0.014 │ 0.048 │ 0.091 │ 0.139 │ 0.201 │ 0.272 │ 24.509 │ 25.197 │ 1.161 │ │ p2 │ 0.852 │ 0.063 │ 0.014 │ 0.728 │ 0.799 │ 0.861 │ 0.909 │ 0.952 │ 24.509 │ 39.185 │ 1.161 │ └────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel SMC2Kernel Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 98.2%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -281.552, variance: 0.438 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1578.529, variance: 1.952 Total number of jittering steps: 70. Rejuvenations on average every 55.556 step, every 41.667 steps in first half, every 83.333 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.161, 0.202, 0.344, 0.425, 0.791]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [2.2, 5.0, 10.0, 10.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.033, 3.267, 3.581, 3.859, 3.995] for 4 chains. ┌────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ1 │ -0.058 │ 0.084 │ 0.019 │ -0.143 │ -0.099 │ -0.052 │ -0.01 │ 0.055 │ 13.168 │ 18.354 │ 1.394 │ │ μ2 │ 1.199 │ 0.732 │ 0.275 │ -0.678 │ 0.756 │ 1.434 │ 1.703 │ 2.114 │ 6.196 │ NaN │ 1.753 │ │ σ1 │ 0.989 │ 0.06 │ 0.013 │ 0.872 │ 0.967 │ 0.987 │ 1.008 │ 1.068 │ 13.691 │ 12.81 │ 1.254 │ │ σ2 │ 0.975 │ 0.244 │ 0.091 │ 0.566 │ 0.766 │ 0.953 │ 1.143 │ 1.562 │ 7.253 │ 11.401 │ 1.541 │ │ p1 │ 0.942 │ 0.068 │ 0.018 │ 0.765 │ 0.953 │ 0.959 │ 0.962 │ 0.981 │ 6.081 │ NaN │ 1.795 │ │ p2 │ 0.058 │ 0.068 │ 0.018 │ 0.019 │ 0.038 │ 0.041 │ 0.047 │ 0.235 │ 6.081 │ 12.2 │ 1.795 │ └────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -192.248, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1128.113. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 18.128 (7) number of steps and depth of 3.546 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -193.521, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1126.594. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 18.38 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.562 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -192.388, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1127.209. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 15.636 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.396 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -192.148, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1128.945. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 16.156 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.34 (5). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.116 │ 0.728 │ 0.045 │ -1.48 │ -0.355 │ 0.154 │ 0.613 │ 1.452 │ 272.601 │ 326.088 │ 1.014 │ │ σ │ 10.359 │ 0.649 │ 0.051 │ 8.834 │ 9.988 │ 10.371 │ 10.745 │ 11.661 │ 187.202 │ 114.004 │ 1.044 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 400. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 400 Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1128.874, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1869.78. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 16.515 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.46 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1128.211, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1868.504. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.62 (7) number of steps and depth of 3.52 (2). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1129.418, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1867.96. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 16.095 (7) number of steps and depth of 3.445 (2). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1128.518, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1867.711. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 16.55 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.458 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.155 │ 0.459 │ 0.023 │ -0.779 │ -0.144 │ 0.161 │ 0.464 │ 1.023 │ 385.972 │ 546.963 │ 1.009 │ │ σ │ 10.101 │ 0.374 │ 0.033 │ 9.404 │ 9.851 │ 10.089 │ 10.328 │ 10.894 │ 139.699 │ 760.24 │ 1.03 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -192.728, variance: 0.033 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1128.002, variance: 0.019 Total number of jittering steps: 545. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.612, 0.007, 0.368, 0.66, 0.946]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.939, 3.994, 3.997, 3.999, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.188 │ 0.753 │ 0.035 │ -1.284 │ -0.303 │ 0.205 │ 0.697 │ 1.654 │ 451.84 │ 372.169 │ 1.021 │ │ σ │ 10.334 │ 0.687 │ 0.052 │ 8.919 │ 9.916 │ 10.326 │ 10.778 │ 11.733 │ 180.815 │ 105.072 │ 1.048 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -964.991, variance: 529.236 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -778.669, variance: 2.252 Total number of jittering steps: 532. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.676, -0.1, 0.241, 0.577, 0.928]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.969, 3.997, 3.999, 3.999, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.039 │ 0.058 │ 0.002 │ -0.064 │ 0.003 │ 0.038 │ 0.073 │ 0.144 │ 762.784 │ 437.775 │ 1.011 │ │ σ │ 1.041 │ 0.566 │ 0.024 │ 0.926 │ 0.973 │ 0.996 │ 1.019 │ 1.07 │ 962.777 │ 846.919 │ 1.007 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel SMC2Kernel Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 98.6%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -79.334, variance: 1.08 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -487.479, variance: 0.194 Total number of jittering steps: 29. Rejuvenations on average every 71.429 step, every 62.5 steps in first half, every 83.333 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.158, -0.012, 0.097, 0.178, 0.201]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.5, 2.0, 6.5, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.024, 3.265, 3.617, 3.823, 3.995] for 4 chains. ┌────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ1 │ -0.666 │ 1.08 │ 0.342 │ -2.607 │ -1.332 │ -0.638 │ 0.326 │ 0.608 │ 8.11 │ 29.191 │ 1.448 │ │ μ2 │ 1.907 │ 0.092 │ 0.013 │ 1.685 │ 1.852 │ 1.906 │ 1.948 │ 2.134 │ 26.039 │ 32.516 │ 1.212 │ │ σ1 │ 2.136 │ 0.417 │ 0.109 │ 1.414 │ 1.926 │ 2.119 │ 2.498 │ 2.95 │ 15.442 │ 14.637 │ 1.231 │ │ σ2 │ 1.016 │ 0.086 │ 0.023 │ 0.905 │ 0.952 │ 1.025 │ 1.067 │ 1.244 │ 17.035 │ 11.874 │ 1.192 │ │ p1 │ 0.118 │ 0.037 │ 0.008 │ 0.053 │ 0.094 │ 0.114 │ 0.132 │ 0.247 │ 19.499 │ 31.581 │ 1.192 │ │ p2 │ 0.882 │ 0.037 │ 0.008 │ 0.753 │ 0.868 │ 0.886 │ 0.906 │ 0.947 │ 19.499 │ 25.806 │ 1.192 │ └────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel SMC2Kernel Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 98.6%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -489.112, variance: 0.174 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -800.599, variance: 2.613 Total number of jittering steps: 67. Rejuvenations on average every 71.429 step, every 83.333 steps in first half, every 62.5 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [0.059, 0.21, 0.918, 1.0, 1.0]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [7.45, 10.0, 10.0, 10.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.042, 3.404, 3.69, 3.848, 3.995] for 4 chains. ┌────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ1 │ 0.383 │ 0.429 │ 0.092 │ -0.844 │ 0.542 │ 0.542 │ 0.65 │ 0.65 │ 20.234 │ NaN │ 1.343 │ │ μ2 │ 1.767 │ 0.395 │ 0.088 │ 0.646 │ 1.869 │ 1.924 │ 1.982 │ 2.022 │ 12.987 │ 16.545 │ 1.45 │ │ σ1 │ 1.899 │ 0.513 │ 0.145 │ 0.694 │ 1.926 │ 1.926 │ 2.244 │ 2.498 │ 7.694 │ NaN │ 1.502 │ │ σ2 │ 1.02 │ 0.12 │ 0.024 │ 0.893 │ 0.969 │ 0.969 │ 1.018 │ 1.413 │ 16.383 │ 14.806 │ 1.19 │ │ p1 │ 0.188 │ 0.159 │ 0.035 │ 0.114 │ 0.114 │ 0.115 │ 0.135 │ 0.641 │ 14.488 │ 9.133 │ 1.299 │ │ p2 │ 0.812 │ 0.159 │ 0.035 │ 0.359 │ 0.865 │ 0.885 │ 0.886 │ 0.886 │ 14.488 │ NaN │ 1.299 │ └────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -191.333, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1562.288. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 19.42 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.632 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -192.868, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1561.636. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 16.64 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.45 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -192.077, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1561.935. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 18.3 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.526 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -191.831, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1561.22. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 15.776 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.362 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.214 │ 0.636 │ 0.037 │ -1.099 │ -0.201 │ 0.234 │ 0.654 │ 1.405 │ 310.113 │ 326.285 │ 1.024 │ │ σ │ 10.352 │ 0.634 │ 0.053 │ 8.943 │ 10.008 │ 10.369 │ 10.725 │ 11.56 │ 163.782 │ 81.695 │ 1.047 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 400. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 400 Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1564.751, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3105.715. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 15.365 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.428 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1564.086, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3105.611. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 13.825 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.33 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1564.898, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3106.965. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 15.05 (3) number of steps and depth of 3.395 (2). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1564.964, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3106.242. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 16.53 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.488 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.154 │ 0.43 │ 0.027 │ -0.734 │ -0.121 │ 0.156 │ 0.455 │ 0.975 │ 245.505 │ 341.537 │ 1.029 │ │ σ │ 10.112 │ 0.317 │ 0.042 │ 9.521 │ 9.895 │ 10.096 │ 10.31 │ 10.79 │ 59.29 │ 432.726 │ 1.052 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -193.948, variance: 3.229 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1563.965, variance: 2.596 Total number of jittering steps: 541. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.597, 0.01, 0.308, 0.647, 0.929]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.939, 3.994, 3.997, 3.999, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.213 │ 0.679 │ 0.03 │ -1.222 │ -0.205 │ 0.246 │ 0.635 │ 1.514 │ 486.119 │ 641.053 │ 1.023 │ │ σ │ 10.327 │ 0.633 │ 0.056 │ 8.831 │ 9.983 │ 10.33 │ 10.688 │ 11.558 │ 150.658 │ 85.65 │ 1.065 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1329.11, variance: 2933.727 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1369.527, variance: 0.778 Total number of jittering steps: 600. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.521, 0.016, 0.426, 0.721, 0.942]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.932, 3.995, 3.998, 3.999, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.013 │ 0.062 │ 0.002 │ -0.068 │ -0.014 │ 0.01 │ 0.036 │ 0.089 │ 681.102 │ 678.534 │ 1.012 │ │ σ │ 1.046 │ 0.483 │ 0.016 │ 0.953 │ 0.995 │ 1.016 │ 1.038 │ 1.087 │ 675.12 │ 400.395 │ 1.017 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel SMC2Kernel Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 97.6%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -80.934, variance: 6.564 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -673.384, variance: 6.336 Total number of jittering steps: 89. Rejuvenations on average every 41.667 step, every 35.714 steps in first half, every 50.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.181, -0.061, 0.109, 0.345, 0.514]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [3.275, 5.75, 7.5, 10.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.013, 3.436, 3.669, 3.839, 3.995] for 4 chains. ┌────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ1 │ -0.428 │ 1.242 │ 0.366 │ -2.149 │ -1.297 │ -0.606 │ 0.156 │ 1.97 │ 13.027 │ 25.556 │ 1.243 │ │ μ2 │ 1.94 │ 0.087 │ 0.013 │ 1.812 │ 1.883 │ 1.928 │ 1.991 │ 2.129 │ 37.121 │ 26.827 │ 1.271 │ │ σ1 │ 2.162 │ 1.953 │ 0.415 │ 1.01 │ 1.356 │ 1.967 │ 2.116 │ 9.414 │ 11.616 │ 27.296 │ 1.267 │ │ σ2 │ 0.978 │ 0.061 │ 0.014 │ 0.884 │ 0.934 │ 0.968 │ 1.026 │ 1.123 │ 18.767 │ 21.652 │ 1.155 │ │ p1 │ 0.12 │ 0.054 │ 0.014 │ 0.033 │ 0.077 │ 0.104 │ 0.163 │ 0.221 │ 20.063 │ 48.71 │ 1.2 │ │ p2 │ 0.88 │ 0.054 │ 0.014 │ 0.779 │ 0.837 │ 0.896 │ 0.923 │ 0.967 │ 20.063 │ 19.234 │ 1.2 │ └────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel SMC2Kernel Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 98.8%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -675.032, variance: 6.018 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1353.349, variance: 14.39 Total number of jittering steps: 53. Rejuvenations on average every 83.333 step, every 62.5 steps in first half, every 125.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [0.308, 0.362, 0.422, 0.607, 0.84]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [5.375, 8.5, 10.0, 10.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.059, 3.472, 3.753, 3.888, 3.993] for 4 chains. ┌────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ1 │ -0.117 │ 0.145 │ 0.037 │ -0.569 │ -0.141 │ -0.086 │ -0.057 │ 0.023 │ 7.05 │ NaN │ 1.582 │ │ μ2 │ 0.821 │ 0.443 │ 0.163 │ 0.156 │ 0.419 │ 0.781 │ 0.971 │ 1.861 │ 7.184 │ 9.645 │ 1.556 │ │ σ1 │ 0.993 │ 0.146 │ 0.012 │ 0.841 │ 0.953 │ 0.966 │ 0.998 │ 1.708 │ 12.574 │ 55.245 │ 1.246 │ │ σ2 │ 0.998 │ 0.261 │ 0.094 │ 0.708 │ 0.799 │ 0.933 │ 1.095 │ 1.72 │ 6.678 │ 9.645 │ 1.619 │ │ p1 │ 0.821 │ 0.161 │ 0.038 │ 0.11 │ 0.789 │ 0.856 │ 0.881 │ 0.965 │ 7.531 │ 19.874 │ 1.486 │ │ p2 │ 0.179 │ 0.161 │ 0.038 │ 0.035 │ 0.119 │ 0.144 │ 0.211 │ 0.89 │ 7.531 │ 8.144 │ 1.486 │ └────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ NaN │ 8.398 │ NaN │ └───┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ ┌───┬──────┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ NaN │ 8.398 │ NaN │ └───┴──────┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ σ │ 10.058 │ 0.161 │ 0.042 │ 9.729 │ 9.918 │ 10.084 │ 10.22 │ 10.274 │ 17.318 │ 134.17 │ 1.166 │ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.001 │ 0.0 │ 0.288 │ 0.289 │ 0.289 │ 0.29 │ 0.291 │ 17.318 │ 19.112 │ 1.166 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ NaN │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ NaN │ 8.398 │ NaN │ └───┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ ┌───┬──────┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ NaN │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ NaN │ 8.398 │ NaN │ └───┴──────┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ σ │ 9.988 │ 0.153 │ 0.033 │ 9.76 │ 9.908 │ 10.0 │ 10.059 │ 10.392 │ 21.79 │ 9.543 │ 1.181 │ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.001 │ 0.0 │ 0.288 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.291 │ 21.79 │ 36.474 │ 1.181 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 6.48 │ 8.398 │ 1.778 │ └───┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ ┌───┬──────┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 6.48 │ 8.398 │ 1.778 │ └───┴──────┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ σ │ 9.84 │ 0.362 │ 0.13 │ 9.349 │ 9.548 │ 9.86 │ 10.121 │ 10.362 │ 7.96 │ 5.914 │ 1.638 │ │ μ │ 0.291 │ 0.002 │ 0.001 │ 0.288 │ 0.289 │ 0.291 │ 0.292 │ 0.293 │ 8.594 │ 15.116 │ 1.46 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 6.069 │ 8.398 │ 1.931 │ └───┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ ┌───┬──────┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 6.069 │ 8.398 │ 1.931 │ └───┴──────┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ σ │ 10.01 │ 0.133 │ 0.024 │ 9.781 │ 9.946 │ 10.018 │ 10.093 │ 10.267 │ 24.825 │ 93.861 │ 1.135 │ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.001 │ 0.0 │ 0.288 │ 0.289 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.291 │ 24.52 │ 117.621 │ 1.136 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ NaN │ 8.398 │ NaN │ └───┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ ┌───┬──────┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ NaN │ 8.398 │ NaN │ └───┴──────┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ σ │ 10.077 │ 0.378 │ 0.118 │ 9.525 │ 9.815 │ 10.012 │ 10.435 │ 10.613 │ 9.988 │ 10.307 │ 1.359 │ │ μ │ 0.289 │ 0.002 │ 0.001 │ 0.287 │ 0.287 │ 0.29 │ 0.291 │ 0.292 │ 9.988 │ 8.184 │ 1.359 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ NaN │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ NaN │ 8.398 │ NaN │ └───┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ ┌───┬──────┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ NaN │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ NaN │ 8.398 │ NaN │ └───┴──────┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ σ │ 9.976 │ 0.223 │ 0.028 │ 9.618 │ 9.807 │ 9.993 │ 10.101 │ 10.384 │ 69.075 │ 40.589 │ 1.131 │ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.001 │ 0.0 │ 0.288 │ 0.289 │ 0.29 │ 0.291 │ 0.292 │ 69.077 │ 12.81 │ 1.128 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 6.587 │ 71.244 │ 1.746 │ └───┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ ┌───┬──────┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 6.587 │ 71.244 │ 1.746 │ └───┴──────┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ σ │ 10.037 │ 0.248 │ 0.031 │ 9.63 │ 9.838 │ 9.999 │ 10.268 │ 10.47 │ 65.922 │ 49.3 │ 1.087 │ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.001 │ 0.0 │ 0.287 │ 0.288 │ 0.29 │ 0.291 │ 0.292 │ 65.266 │ 61.34 │ 1.09 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 6.401 │ 8.398 │ 1.806 │ └───┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ ┌───┬──────┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 6.401 │ 8.398 │ 1.806 │ └───┴──────┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ σ │ 10.075 │ 0.271 │ 0.058 │ 9.605 │ 9.866 │ 10.142 │ 10.242 │ 10.584 │ 27.333 │ 13.755 │ 1.13 │ │ μ │ 0.289 │ 0.001 │ 0.0 │ 0.287 │ 0.289 │ 0.289 │ 0.291 │ 0.292 │ 27.338 │ 59.163 │ 1.13 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ Sampling starts... Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 10000. Sampling iterations set to 900 Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 10. Sampling iterations set to 10 Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Test Summary: | Pass Total Time All tests | 214 214 11m00.2s Testing Baytes tests passed Testing completed after 683.05s PkgEval succeeded after 781.23s