Package evaluation of Baytes on Julia 1.10.8 (92f03a4775*) started at 2025-02-25T11:02:47.695 ################################################################################ # Set-up # Installing PkgEval dependencies (TestEnv)... Set-up completed after 5.15s ################################################################################ # Installation # Installing Baytes... Resolving package versions... Updating `~/.julia/environments/v1.10/Project.toml` [72ddfcfc] + Baytes v0.3.16 Updating `~/.julia/environments/v1.10/Manifest.toml` [621f4979] + AbstractFFTs v1.5.0 [7d9f7c33] + Accessors v0.1.41 [79e6a3ab] + Adapt v4.2.0 [66dad0bd] + AliasTables v1.1.3 [dce04be8] + ArgCheck v2.4.0 [72ddfcfc] + Baytes v0.3.16 [e5a8efeb] + BaytesCore v0.2.0 [12a76ff9] + BaytesDiff v0.3.1 [26b78818] + BaytesFilters v0.3.6 [8e6e46a0] + BaytesMCMC v0.3.4 [c78c806d] + BaytesOptim v0.1.9 [c4a8eb41] + BaytesPMCMC v0.3.3 [2428e3a5] + BaytesSMC v0.3.6 ⌅ [76274a88] + Bijectors v0.13.18 [082447d4] + ChainRules v1.72.2 [d360d2e6] + ChainRulesCore v1.25.1 [9e997f8a] + ChangesOfVariables v0.1.9 [38540f10] + CommonSolve v0.2.4 [34da2185] + Compat v4.16.0 [a33af91c] + CompositionsBase v0.1.2 [187b0558] + ConstructionBase v1.5.8 [a8cc5b0e] + Crayons v4.1.1 [9a962f9c] + DataAPI v1.16.0 [864edb3b] + DataStructures v0.18.20 [e2d170a0] + DataValueInterfaces v1.0.0 [31c24e10] + Distributions v0.25.117 [ffbed154] + DocStringExtensions v0.9.3 [fdbdab4c] + ElasticArrays v1.2.12 [5789e2e9] + FileIO v1.16.6 [1a297f60] + FillArrays v1.13.0 ⌅ [d9f16b24] + Functors v0.4.12 [46192b85] + GPUArraysCore v0.2.0 [34004b35] + HypergeometricFunctions v0.3.27 [3587e190] + InverseFunctions v0.1.17 [92d709cd] + IrrationalConstants v0.2.4 [82899510] + IteratorInterfaceExtensions v1.0.0 ⌅ [033835bb] + JLD2 v0.4.54 [692b3bcd] + JLLWrappers v1.7.0 [b964fa9f] + LaTeXStrings v1.4.0 [2ab3a3ac] + LogExpFunctions v0.3.29 [be115224] + MCMCDiagnosticTools v0.3.14 [e80e1ace] + MLJModelInterface v1.11.0 [1914dd2f] + MacroTools v0.5.15 [dbb5928d] + MappedArrays v0.4.2 [e1d29d7a] + Missings v1.2.0 [44c54197] + ModelWrappers v0.5.6 [bac558e1] + OrderedCollections v1.8.0 [90014a1f] + PDMats v0.11.32 [aea7be01] + PrecompileTools v1.2.1 [21216c6a] + Preferences v1.4.3 [08abe8d2] + PrettyTables v2.4.0 [92933f4c] + ProgressMeter v1.10.2 [43287f4e] + PtrArrays v1.3.0 [1fd47b50] + QuadGK v2.11.2 [c1ae055f] + RealDot v0.1.0 [189a3867] + Reexport v1.2.2 [ae029012] + Requires v1.3.0 [79098fc4] + Rmath v0.8.0 [f2b01f46] + Roots v2.2.5 [30f210dd] + ScientificTypesBase v3.0.0 [ce78b400] + SimpleUnPack v1.1.0 [a2af1166] + SortingAlgorithms v1.2.1 [dc90abb0] + SparseInverseSubset v0.1.2 [276daf66] + SpecialFunctions v2.5.0 [64bff920] + StatisticalTraits v3.4.0 [82ae8749] + StatsAPI v1.7.0 [2913bbd2] + StatsBase v0.34.4 [4c63d2b9] + StatsFuns v1.3.2 [892a3eda] + StringManipulation v0.4.1 [09ab397b] + StructArrays v0.7.0 [3783bdb8] + TableTraits v1.0.1 [bd369af6] + Tables v1.12.0 [3bb67fe8] + TranscodingStreams v0.11.3 [efe28fd5] + OpenSpecFun_jll v0.5.6+0 [f50d1b31] + Rmath_jll v0.5.1+0 [0dad84c5] + ArgTools v1.1.1 [56f22d72] + Artifacts [2a0f44e3] + Base64 [ade2ca70] + Dates [8ba89e20] + Distributed [f43a241f] + Downloads v1.6.0 [7b1f6079] + FileWatching [b77e0a4c] + InteractiveUtils [b27032c2] + LibCURL v0.6.4 [76f85450] + LibGit2 [8f399da3] + Libdl [37e2e46d] + LinearAlgebra [56ddb016] + Logging [d6f4376e] + Markdown [a63ad114] + Mmap [ca575930] + NetworkOptions v1.2.0 [44cfe95a] + Pkg v1.10.0 [de0858da] + Printf [3fa0cd96] + REPL [9a3f8284] + Random [ea8e919c] + SHA v0.7.0 [9e88b42a] + Serialization [6462fe0b] + Sockets [2f01184e] + SparseArrays v1.10.0 [10745b16] + Statistics v1.10.0 [4607b0f0] + SuiteSparse [fa267f1f] + TOML v1.0.3 [a4e569a6] + Tar v1.10.0 [cf7118a7] + UUIDs [4ec0a83e] + Unicode [e66e0078] + CompilerSupportLibraries_jll v1.1.1+0 [deac9b47] + LibCURL_jll v8.4.0+0 [e37daf67] + LibGit2_jll v1.6.4+0 [29816b5a] + LibSSH2_jll v1.11.0+1 [c8ffd9c3] + MbedTLS_jll v2.28.2+1 [14a3606d] + MozillaCACerts_jll v2023.1.10 [4536629a] + OpenBLAS_jll v0.3.23+4 [05823500] + OpenLibm_jll v0.8.1+4 [bea87d4a] + SuiteSparse_jll v7.2.1+1 [83775a58] + Zlib_jll v1.2.13+1 [8e850b90] + libblastrampoline_jll v5.11.0+0 [8e850ede] + nghttp2_jll v1.52.0+1 [3f19e933] + p7zip_jll v17.4.0+2 Info Packages marked with ⌅ have new versions available but compatibility constraints restrict them from upgrading. To see why use `status --outdated -m` Installation completed after 9.41s ################################################################################ # Precompilation # Precompiling PkgEval dependencies... Precompiling package dependencies... Precompilation completed after 31.32s ################################################################################ # Testing # Testing Baytes Status `/tmp/jl_CaJ8Fs/Project.toml` [dce04be8] ArgCheck v2.4.0 [72ddfcfc] Baytes v0.3.16 [e5a8efeb] BaytesCore v0.2.0 [12a76ff9] BaytesDiff v0.3.1 [26b78818] BaytesFilters v0.3.6 [8e6e46a0] BaytesMCMC v0.3.4 [c78c806d] BaytesOptim v0.1.9 [c4a8eb41] BaytesPMCMC v0.3.3 [2428e3a5] BaytesSMC v0.3.6 [31c24e10] Distributions v0.25.117 [ffbed154] DocStringExtensions v0.9.3 [f6369f11] ForwardDiff v0.10.38 ⌅ [033835bb] JLD2 v0.4.54 [be115224] MCMCDiagnosticTools v0.3.14 [44c54197] ModelWrappers v0.5.6 [d41bc354] NLSolversBase v7.8.3 [429524aa] Optim v1.11.0 [08abe8d2] PrettyTables v2.4.0 [92933f4c] ProgressMeter v1.10.2 [ce78b400] SimpleUnPack v1.1.0 [ade2ca70] Dates [9a3f8284] Random [10745b16] Statistics v1.10.0 [8dfed614] Test Status `/tmp/jl_CaJ8Fs/Manifest.toml` [621f4979] AbstractFFTs v1.5.0 [7d9f7c33] Accessors v0.1.41 [79e6a3ab] Adapt v4.2.0 [66dad0bd] AliasTables v1.1.3 [dce04be8] ArgCheck v2.4.0 [4fba245c] ArrayInterface v7.18.0 [72ddfcfc] Baytes v0.3.16 [e5a8efeb] BaytesCore v0.2.0 [12a76ff9] BaytesDiff v0.3.1 [26b78818] BaytesFilters v0.3.6 [8e6e46a0] BaytesMCMC v0.3.4 [c78c806d] BaytesOptim v0.1.9 [c4a8eb41] BaytesPMCMC v0.3.3 [2428e3a5] BaytesSMC v0.3.6 ⌅ [76274a88] Bijectors v0.13.18 [082447d4] ChainRules v1.72.2 [d360d2e6] ChainRulesCore v1.25.1 [9e997f8a] ChangesOfVariables v0.1.9 [38540f10] CommonSolve v0.2.4 [bbf7d656] CommonSubexpressions v0.3.1 [34da2185] Compat v4.16.0 [a33af91c] CompositionsBase v0.1.2 [187b0558] ConstructionBase v1.5.8 [a8cc5b0e] Crayons v4.1.1 [9a962f9c] DataAPI v1.16.0 [864edb3b] DataStructures v0.18.20 [e2d170a0] DataValueInterfaces v1.0.0 [163ba53b] DiffResults v1.1.0 [b552c78f] DiffRules v1.15.1 [31c24e10] Distributions v0.25.117 [ffbed154] DocStringExtensions v0.9.3 [fdbdab4c] ElasticArrays v1.2.12 [5789e2e9] FileIO v1.16.6 [1a297f60] FillArrays v1.13.0 [6a86dc24] FiniteDiff v2.27.0 [f6369f11] ForwardDiff v0.10.38 ⌅ [d9f16b24] Functors v0.4.12 [46192b85] GPUArraysCore v0.2.0 [34004b35] HypergeometricFunctions v0.3.27 [3587e190] InverseFunctions v0.1.17 [92d709cd] IrrationalConstants v0.2.4 [82899510] IteratorInterfaceExtensions v1.0.0 ⌅ [033835bb] JLD2 v0.4.54 [692b3bcd] JLLWrappers v1.7.0 [b964fa9f] LaTeXStrings v1.4.0 [d3d80556] LineSearches v7.3.0 [2ab3a3ac] LogExpFunctions v0.3.29 [be115224] MCMCDiagnosticTools v0.3.14 [e80e1ace] MLJModelInterface v1.11.0 [1914dd2f] MacroTools v0.5.15 [dbb5928d] MappedArrays v0.4.2 [e1d29d7a] Missings v1.2.0 [44c54197] ModelWrappers v0.5.6 [d41bc354] NLSolversBase v7.8.3 [77ba4419] NaNMath v1.1.2 [429524aa] Optim v1.11.0 [bac558e1] OrderedCollections v1.8.0 [90014a1f] PDMats v0.11.32 [d96e819e] Parameters v0.12.3 [85a6dd25] PositiveFactorizations v0.2.4 [aea7be01] PrecompileTools v1.2.1 [21216c6a] Preferences v1.4.3 [08abe8d2] PrettyTables v2.4.0 [92933f4c] ProgressMeter v1.10.2 [43287f4e] PtrArrays v1.3.0 [1fd47b50] QuadGK v2.11.2 [c1ae055f] RealDot v0.1.0 [189a3867] Reexport v1.2.2 [ae029012] Requires v1.3.0 [79098fc4] Rmath v0.8.0 [f2b01f46] Roots v2.2.5 [30f210dd] ScientificTypesBase v3.0.0 [efcf1570] Setfield v1.1.1 [ce78b400] SimpleUnPack v1.1.0 [a2af1166] SortingAlgorithms v1.2.1 [dc90abb0] SparseInverseSubset v0.1.2 [276daf66] SpecialFunctions v2.5.0 [1e83bf80] StaticArraysCore v1.4.3 [64bff920] StatisticalTraits v3.4.0 [82ae8749] StatsAPI v1.7.0 [2913bbd2] StatsBase v0.34.4 [4c63d2b9] StatsFuns v1.3.2 [892a3eda] StringManipulation v0.4.1 [09ab397b] StructArrays v0.7.0 [3783bdb8] TableTraits v1.0.1 [bd369af6] Tables v1.12.0 [3bb67fe8] TranscodingStreams v0.11.3 [3a884ed6] UnPack v1.0.2 [efe28fd5] OpenSpecFun_jll v0.5.6+0 [f50d1b31] Rmath_jll v0.5.1+0 [0dad84c5] ArgTools v1.1.1 [56f22d72] Artifacts [2a0f44e3] Base64 [ade2ca70] Dates [8ba89e20] Distributed [f43a241f] Downloads v1.6.0 [7b1f6079] FileWatching [9fa8497b] Future [b77e0a4c] InteractiveUtils [b27032c2] LibCURL v0.6.4 [76f85450] LibGit2 [8f399da3] Libdl [37e2e46d] LinearAlgebra [56ddb016] Logging [d6f4376e] Markdown [a63ad114] Mmap [ca575930] NetworkOptions v1.2.0 [44cfe95a] Pkg v1.10.0 [de0858da] Printf [3fa0cd96] REPL [9a3f8284] Random [ea8e919c] SHA v0.7.0 [9e88b42a] Serialization [6462fe0b] Sockets [2f01184e] SparseArrays v1.10.0 [10745b16] Statistics v1.10.0 [4607b0f0] SuiteSparse [fa267f1f] TOML v1.0.3 [a4e569a6] Tar v1.10.0 [8dfed614] Test [cf7118a7] UUIDs [4ec0a83e] Unicode [e66e0078] CompilerSupportLibraries_jll v1.1.1+0 [deac9b47] LibCURL_jll v8.4.0+0 [e37daf67] LibGit2_jll v1.6.4+0 [29816b5a] LibSSH2_jll v1.11.0+1 [c8ffd9c3] MbedTLS_jll v2.28.2+1 [14a3606d] MozillaCACerts_jll v2023.1.10 [4536629a] OpenBLAS_jll v0.3.23+4 [05823500] OpenLibm_jll v0.8.1+4 [bea87d4a] SuiteSparse_jll v7.2.1+1 [83775a58] Zlib_jll v1.2.13+1 [8e850b90] libblastrampoline_jll v5.11.0+0 [8e850ede] nghttp2_jll v1.52.0+1 [3f19e933] p7zip_jll v17.4.0+2 Info Packages marked with ⌅ have new versions available but compatibility constraints restrict them from upgrading. Testing Running tests... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.146 │ 0.253 │ 0.078 │ -0.286 │ -0.033 │ 0.156 │ 0.338 │ 0.631 │ 11.749 │ 10.01 │ 1.289 │ │ σ │ 9.992 │ 0.15 │ 0.025 │ 9.706 │ 9.88 │ 10.0 │ 10.078 │ 10.339 │ 27.676 │ 82.581 │ 1.131 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ ┌───┬──────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.146 │ 0.253 │ 0.078 │ -0.286 │ -0.033 │ 0.156 │ 0.338 │ 0.631 │ 11.749 │ 10.01 │ 1.289 │ │ σ │ 10.0 │ 9.992 │ 0.15 │ 0.025 │ 9.706 │ 9.88 │ 10.0 │ 10.078 │ 10.339 │ 27.676 │ 82.581 │ 1.131 │ └───┴──────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.055 │ 0.245 │ 0.071 │ -0.279 │ -0.054 │ 0.016 │ 0.108 │ 0.694 │ 9.388 │ 9.751 │ 1.398 │ │ σ │ 10.042 │ 0.147 │ 0.026 │ 9.705 │ 9.958 │ 10.0 │ 10.189 │ 10.261 │ 31.232 │ 87.872 │ 1.161 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ ┌───┬──────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.055 │ 0.245 │ 0.071 │ -0.279 │ -0.054 │ 0.016 │ 0.108 │ 0.694 │ 9.388 │ 9.751 │ 1.398 │ │ σ │ 10.0 │ 10.042 │ 0.147 │ 0.026 │ 9.705 │ 9.958 │ 10.0 │ 10.189 │ 10.261 │ 31.232 │ 87.872 │ 1.161 │ └───┴──────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.082 │ 0.204 │ 0.058 │ -0.165 │ -0.037 │ 0.012 │ 0.134 │ 0.588 │ 9.848 │ 34.513 │ 1.373 │ │ σ │ 10.096 │ 0.28 │ 0.084 │ 9.599 │ 9.859 │ 10.026 │ 10.367 │ 10.473 │ 11.26 │ 38.816 │ 1.312 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ ┌───┬──────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.082 │ 0.204 │ 0.058 │ -0.165 │ -0.037 │ 0.012 │ 0.134 │ 0.588 │ 9.848 │ 34.513 │ 1.373 │ │ σ │ 10.0 │ 10.096 │ 0.28 │ 0.084 │ 9.599 │ 9.859 │ 10.026 │ 10.367 │ 10.473 │ 11.26 │ 38.816 │ 1.312 │ └───┴──────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ -0.015 │ 0.32 │ 0.101 │ -0.421 │ -0.279 │ -0.013 │ 0.163 │ 0.674 │ 10.575 │ 6.309 │ 1.425 │ │ σ │ 10.26 │ 0.363 │ 0.123 │ 9.748 │ 9.925 │ 10.173 │ 10.579 │ 10.817 │ 10.593 │ 75.771 │ 1.592 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ ┌───┬──────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ -0.015 │ 0.32 │ 0.101 │ -0.421 │ -0.279 │ -0.013 │ 0.163 │ 0.674 │ 10.575 │ 6.309 │ 1.425 │ │ σ │ 10.0 │ 10.26 │ 0.363 │ 0.123 │ 9.748 │ 9.925 │ 10.173 │ 10.579 │ 10.817 │ 10.593 │ 75.771 │ 1.592 │ └───┴──────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.071 │ 0.374 │ 0.108 │ -0.637 │ -0.1 │ 0.099 │ 0.28 │ 0.874 │ 12.289 │ 27.645 │ 1.264 │ │ σ │ 10.107 │ 0.338 │ 0.055 │ 9.457 │ 9.905 │ 10.04 │ 10.326 │ 10.627 │ 45.471 │ 19.635 │ 1.22 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ ┌───┬──────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.071 │ 0.374 │ 0.108 │ -0.637 │ -0.1 │ 0.099 │ 0.28 │ 0.874 │ 12.289 │ 27.645 │ 1.264 │ │ σ │ 10.0 │ 10.107 │ 0.338 │ 0.055 │ 9.457 │ 9.905 │ 10.04 │ 10.326 │ 10.627 │ 45.471 │ 19.635 │ 1.22 │ └───┴──────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.227 │ 0.375 │ 0.12 │ -0.541 │ 0.06 │ 0.322 │ 0.42 │ 0.951 │ 10.565 │ 18.286 │ 1.343 │ │ σ │ 10.002 │ 0.28 │ 0.042 │ 9.48 │ 9.774 │ 10.008 │ 10.209 │ 10.554 │ 47.063 │ 18.748 │ 1.065 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ ┌───┬──────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.227 │ 0.375 │ 0.12 │ -0.541 │ 0.06 │ 0.322 │ 0.42 │ 0.951 │ 10.565 │ 18.286 │ 1.343 │ │ σ │ 10.0 │ 10.002 │ 0.28 │ 0.042 │ 9.48 │ 9.774 │ 10.008 │ 10.209 │ 10.554 │ 47.063 │ 18.748 │ 1.065 │ └───┴──────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.171 │ 0.219 │ 0.063 │ -0.095 │ 0.004 │ 0.126 │ 0.309 │ 0.729 │ 10.684 │ 32.804 │ 1.324 │ │ σ │ 10.111 │ 0.348 │ 0.112 │ 9.54 │ 9.898 │ 10.034 │ 10.294 │ 10.681 │ 10.143 │ 11.358 │ 1.365 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ ┌───┬──────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.171 │ 0.219 │ 0.063 │ -0.095 │ 0.004 │ 0.126 │ 0.309 │ 0.729 │ 10.684 │ 32.804 │ 1.324 │ │ σ │ 10.0 │ 10.111 │ 0.348 │ 0.112 │ 9.54 │ 9.898 │ 10.034 │ 10.294 │ 10.681 │ 10.143 │ 11.358 │ 1.365 │ └───┴──────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.126 │ 0.266 │ 0.059 │ -0.312 │ -0.028 │ 0.12 │ 0.203 │ 0.746 │ 14.381 │ 53.368 │ 1.339 │ │ σ │ 10.022 │ 0.226 │ 0.022 │ 9.577 │ 9.868 │ 10.027 │ 10.191 │ 10.45 │ 106.043 │ 99.694 │ 1.039 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ ┌───┬──────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.126 │ 0.266 │ 0.059 │ -0.312 │ -0.028 │ 0.12 │ 0.203 │ 0.746 │ 14.381 │ 53.368 │ 1.339 │ │ σ │ 10.0 │ 10.022 │ 0.226 │ 0.022 │ 9.577 │ 9.868 │ 10.027 │ 10.191 │ 10.45 │ 106.043 │ 99.694 │ 1.039 │ └───┴──────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1079.823, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.309. NUTS sampler had 52 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 28.096 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.5 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 52, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.24 │ 0.283 │ 0.04 │ -0.208 │ -0.011 │ 0.189 │ 0.429 │ 0.817 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ │ σ │ 10.065 │ 0.237 │ 0.037 │ 9.562 │ 9.897 │ 10.077 │ 10.274 │ 10.408 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1081.866, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.445. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 21.96 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.81 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.365 │ 0.374 │ 0.082 │ -0.567 │ 0.162 │ 0.425 │ 0.639 │ 0.954 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ │ σ │ 10.018 │ 0.274 │ 0.044 │ 9.365 │ 9.826 │ 10.035 │ 10.171 │ 10.508 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1079.823, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3736.409. NUTS sampler had 48 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 24.814 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.512 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 48, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1079.872, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3736.279. NUTS sampler had 52 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 26.174 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.578 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 52, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.242 │ 0.243 │ 0.016 │ -0.191 │ 0.097 │ 0.201 │ 0.388 │ 0.798 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ │ σ │ 10.058 │ 0.227 │ 0.039 │ 9.632 │ 9.892 │ 10.047 │ 10.244 │ 10.461 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1079.897, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.62. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 20.52 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.69 (5). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1079.856, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.744. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 22.58 (7) number of steps and depth of 3.8 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.241 │ 0.331 │ 0.048 │ -0.4 │ 0.035 │ 0.256 │ 0.468 │ 0.82 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ │ σ │ 10.018 │ 0.323 │ 0.041 │ 9.4 │ 9.836 │ 10.004 │ 10.178 │ 10.783 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.001, Avg. final ℓposterior: -4666.066. NUTS sampler had 203 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 72.72 (127) number of steps and depth of 3.388 (7). Divergences in: Warmup: 20, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 183, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.001, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.837. NUTS sampler had 209 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 92.73 (1023) number of steps and depth of 3.346 (10). Divergences in: Warmup: 9, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 200, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.001, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.926. NUTS sampler had 71 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 109.98 (15) number of steps and depth of 4.066 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 21, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 50, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.146, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.374. NUTS sampler had 69 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 44.394 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.178 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 18, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 51, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬─────────┬─────────┬─────────┬─────────┬─────────┬─────────┬───────┬─────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼─────────┼─────────┼─────────┼─────────┼─────────┼─────────┼───────┼─────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ -29.358 │ 30.816 │ 13.167 │ -94.616 │ -41.013 │ -34.668 │ 0.262 │ 0.803 │ 6.114 │ 11.351 │ 1.75 │ │ σ │ 1459.93 │ 29287.5 │ 1252.55 │ 9.636 │ 10.116 │ 35.909 │ 40.07 │ 150.509 │ 6.795 │ 51.989 │ 1.594 │ └───┴─────────┴─────────┴─────────┴─────────┴─────────┴─────────┴───────┴─────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.001, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3736.567. NUTS sampler had 25 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 453.1 (1) number of steps and depth of 6.32 (0). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 25, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.001, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.967. NUTS sampler had 25 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 449.99 (1) number of steps and depth of 6.12 (0). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 25, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.002, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3767.213. NUTS sampler had 25 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 272.22 (1) number of steps and depth of 4.28 (0). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 25, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.001, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.938. NUTS sampler had 25 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 245.8 (1) number of steps and depth of 4.28 (0). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 25, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬─────────┬─────────┬─────────┬─────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬─────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼─────────┼─────────┼─────────┼─────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼─────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 3.567 │ 28.005 │ 7.766 │ -80.198 │ -0.211 │ 0.122 │ 4.108 │ 94.986 │ 8.487 │ 12.565 │ 1.984 │ │ σ │ 317.234 │ 3151.57 │ 205.539 │ 9.675 │ 10.085 │ 10.895 │ 29.651 │ 907.634 │ 9.481 │ 35.82 │ 1.416 │ └───┴─────────┴─────────┴─────────┴─────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴─────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.001, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3737.098. NUTS sampler had 57 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 106.03 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.944 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 7, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 50, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.001, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3737.192. NUTS sampler had 72 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 122.15 (15) number of steps and depth of 4.072 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 22, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 50, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.081, Avg. final ℓposterior: -4836.971. NUTS sampler had 210 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 62.026 (255) number of steps and depth of 3.072 (7). Divergences in: Warmup: 11, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 199, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.001, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3737.533. NUTS sampler had 84 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 101.052 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.806 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 34, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 50, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.028, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3737.268. NUTS sampler had 62 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 113.798 (15) number of steps and depth of 4.0 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 12, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 50, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.007, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.505. NUTS sampler had 69 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 106.264 (31) number of steps and depth of 4.074 (5). Divergences in: Warmup: 19, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 50, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.003, Avg. final ℓposterior: -4829.217. NUTS sampler had 214 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 58.258 (127) number of steps and depth of 3.05 (7). Divergences in: Warmup: 14, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 200, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.003, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3736.84. NUTS sampler had 85 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 105.446 (7) number of steps and depth of 3.854 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 35, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 50, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬─────────┬────────┬─────────┬──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────┬─────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼─────────┼────────┼─────────┼──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────┼─────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ -23.145 │ 55.031 │ 21.411 │ -151.408 │ -25.751 │ 0.236 │ 0.6 │ 3.847 │ 8.1 │ 12.492 │ 1.588 │ │ σ │ 702.827 │ 8387.7 │ 366.251 │ 9.605 │ 9.93 │ 10.14 │ 31.144 │ 262.735 │ 8.352 │ 21.187 │ 1.459 │ └───┴─────────┴────────┴─────────┴──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────┴─────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.005, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3737.224. NUTS sampler had 25 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 261.0 (1) number of steps and depth of 4.56 (0). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 25, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.004, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3736.525. NUTS sampler had 25 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 263.84 (1) number of steps and depth of 4.57 (0). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 25, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.001, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3736.87. NUTS sampler had 25 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 448.9 (1) number of steps and depth of 6.18 (0). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 25, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.005, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3736.354. NUTS sampler had 25 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 255.76 (1) number of steps and depth of 4.67 (0). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 25, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.052, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3737.224. NUTS sampler had 25 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 249.34 (1) number of steps and depth of 4.42 (0). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 25, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.001, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3736.525. NUTS sampler had 25 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 240.3 (1) number of steps and depth of 4.46 (0). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 25, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.001, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3736.87. NUTS sampler had 25 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 449.06 (1) number of steps and depth of 6.15 (0). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 25, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.351, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3736.354. NUTS sampler had 25 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 261.36 (1) number of steps and depth of 4.66 (0). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 25, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬─────────┬─────────┬─────────┬─────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬─────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼─────────┼─────────┼─────────┼─────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼─────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ -8.67 │ 25.9 │ 5.687 │ -89.758 │ -0.295 │ 0.029 │ 0.409 │ 2.262 │ 14.972 │ 34.289 │ 1.24 │ │ σ │ 4274.94 │ 36583.9 │ 3928.88 │ 2.881 │ 9.856 │ 10.098 │ 10.453 │ 14817.9 │ 24.246 │ 27.793 │ 1.394 │ └───┴─────────┴─────────┴─────────┴─────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴─────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.822, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.791. NUTS sampler had 34 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 25.426 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.548 (5). Divergences in: Warmup: 34, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.253 │ 0.28 │ 0.098 │ -0.217 │ 0.024 │ 0.226 │ 0.442 │ 0.827 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ │ σ │ 10.009 │ 0.205 │ 0.012 │ 9.656 │ 9.841 │ 9.999 │ 10.138 │ 10.444 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -3736.173, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.452. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 21.18 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.75 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.349 │ 0.33 │ 0.061 │ -0.389 │ 0.143 │ 0.348 │ 0.56 │ 0.936 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ │ σ │ 10.004 │ 0.161 │ 0.02 │ 9.703 │ 9.896 │ 10.006 │ 10.113 │ 10.352 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.963, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3737.953. NUTS sampler had 34 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 48.826 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.568 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 34, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.963, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3738.188. NUTS sampler had 41 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 55.958 (7) number of steps and depth of 3.562 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 41, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.287 │ 0.285 │ 0.025 │ -0.293 │ 0.132 │ 0.252 │ 0.458 │ 0.891 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ │ σ │ 9.985 │ 0.222 │ 0.032 │ 9.636 │ 9.766 │ 9.976 │ 10.138 │ 10.455 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -3736.549, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3736.97. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 18.44 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.57 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -3735.9, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3738.134. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 18.72 (7) number of steps and depth of 3.65 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.296 │ 0.291 │ 0.05 │ -0.245 │ 0.103 │ 0.275 │ 0.507 │ 0.901 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ │ σ │ 10.001 │ 0.225 │ 0.027 │ 9.621 │ 9.853 │ 9.992 │ 10.165 │ 10.43 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.88, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2590.207. NUTS sampler had 27 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 25.456 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.546 (5). Divergences in: Warmup: 27, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.88, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2590.563. NUTS sampler had 23 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 19.012 (3) number of steps and depth of 3.38 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 23, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.733, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2588.52. NUTS sampler had 21 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 20.694 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.35 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 21, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1868.034, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2590.174. NUTS sampler had 19 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 30.75 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.58 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 19, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.263 │ 0.384 │ 0.028 │ -0.456 │ 0.0 │ 0.254 │ 0.525 │ 1.04 │ 187.232 │ 458.135 │ 1.016 │ │ σ │ 10.037 │ 0.266 │ 0.008 │ 9.519 │ 9.863 │ 10.022 │ 10.211 │ 10.578 │ 995.311 │ 1093.63 │ 1.006 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2589.828, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2696.395. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 20.38 (23) number of steps and depth of 3.72 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2589.581, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2695.255. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.4 (7) number of steps and depth of 3.58 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2589.567, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2696.598. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.8 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.55 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2589.5, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2695.361. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 19.76 (19) number of steps and depth of 3.76 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.275 │ 0.4 │ 0.055 │ -0.523 │ 0.01 │ 0.275 │ 0.556 │ 0.993 │ 53.948 │ 94.227 │ 1.036 │ │ σ │ 10.028 │ 0.277 │ 0.02 │ 9.449 │ 9.842 │ 10.023 │ 10.21 │ 10.567 │ 202.511 │ 168.986 │ 1.026 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.88, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2590.906. NUTS sampler had 32 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 20.392 (7) number of steps and depth of 3.336 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 32, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.88, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2588.526. NUTS sampler had 33 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 19.292 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.324 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 33, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.88, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2588.754. NUTS sampler had 27 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 15.136 (7) number of steps and depth of 3.168 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 27, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.88, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2589.175. NUTS sampler had 30 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 18.248 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.354 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 30, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.914, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2591.351. NUTS sampler had 30 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 19.69 (7) number of steps and depth of 3.302 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 30, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1868.183, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2589.514. NUTS sampler had 40 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 18.918 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.336 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 40, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.88, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2588.906. NUTS sampler had 37 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 16.856 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.244 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 37, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1868.266, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2590.259. NUTS sampler had 17 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 18.95 (7) number of steps and depth of 3.378 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 17, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.3 │ 0.376 │ 0.018 │ -0.388 │ 0.032 │ 0.293 │ 0.546 │ 1.088 │ 430.002 │ 738.346 │ 1.008 │ │ σ │ 10.028 │ 0.289 │ 0.011 │ 9.522 │ 9.82 │ 10.009 │ 10.226 │ 10.621 │ 712.733 │ 622.379 │ 1.008 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2591.722, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2696.203. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.9 (7) number of steps and depth of 3.5 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2589.635, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2695.783. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 16.28 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.37 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2589.755, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2696.604. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 18.06 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.67 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2589.825, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2695.182. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 19.32 (23) number of steps and depth of 3.71 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2589.673, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2695.296. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 16.4 (7) number of steps and depth of 3.47 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2589.872, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2696.387. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 16.94 (23) number of steps and depth of 3.5 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2589.638, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2696.469. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 18.54 (3) number of steps and depth of 3.66 (2). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2589.92, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2695.295. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 20.66 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.6 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.26 │ 0.367 │ 0.028 │ -0.51 │ 0.016 │ 0.268 │ 0.502 │ 0.909 │ 177.55 │ 285.744 │ 1.009 │ │ σ │ 10.013 │ 0.259 │ 0.014 │ 9.532 │ 9.843 │ 10.023 │ 10.185 │ 10.526 │ 368.271 │ 305.825 │ 1.004 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Computing... 0%|▏ | ETA: 0:03:54 ( 0.59 s/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 2 logobjective: -3735.7599335028153 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.19599207598344762 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -3736.0050168650455                         Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:02 ( 6.55 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 100 logobjective: -3735.6081435787682 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9998209923551838 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 71 ℓH: -3735.985723827005 Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -3735.953, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.511. NUTS sampler had 18 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 12.6 (63) number of steps and depth of 2.056 (5). Divergences in: Warmup: 18, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -3735.537, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3738.098. NUTS sampler had 22 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 15.856 (63) number of steps and depth of 2.144 (5). Divergences in: Warmup: 22, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -3735.417, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3737.703. NUTS sampler had 33 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 16.111 (63) number of steps and depth of 2.111 (5). Divergences in: Warmup: 33, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -3735.76, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.608. NUTS sampler had 19 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 14.667 (71) number of steps and depth of 2.111 (6). Divergences in: Warmup: 19, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.191 │ 0.171 │ 0.054 │ -0.055 │ 0.087 │ 0.154 │ 0.287 │ 0.583 │ 10.478 │ 15.208 │ 1.376 │ │ σ │ 10.006 │ 0.151 │ 0.017 │ 9.73 │ 9.92 │ 10.017 │ 10.091 │ 10.282 │ 78.608 │ 21.859 │ 1.357 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Computing... 0%|▏ | ETA: 0:01:51 ( 0.28 s/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 102 logobjective: -3735.926752189699 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9990254941556033 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 31 ℓH: -3736.2971151803986                         Computing... 25%|██████▎ | ETA: 0:00:02 ( 6.66 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 200 logobjective: -3735.5451629245363 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9986941075675372 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 31 ℓH: -3736.019661799797                         Computing... 50%|████████████▍ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 3.97 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 198 logobjective: -3736.340670857138 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9999265117219139 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 15 ℓH: -3736.443247760042                         Computing... 77%|███████████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 2.91 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 109 logobjective: -3735.3488627693896 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9999996373048398 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 63 ℓH: -3735.5537465783023                         Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:01 ( 2.54 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 200 logobjective: -3735.9547591343853 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9969446073635527 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 31 ℓH: -3736.82679049393 Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -3735.795, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.545. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 30.844 (31) number of steps and depth of 4.267 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -3735.858, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3737.614. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 34.378 (15) number of steps and depth of 4.067 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -3735.685, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.511. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 27.489 (15) number of steps and depth of 4.1 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -3735.403, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.955. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 34.289 (31) number of steps and depth of 4.467 (5). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.239 │ 0.302 │ 0.047 │ -0.437 │ 0.031 │ 0.249 │ 0.45 │ 0.785 │ 43.891 │ 46.134 │ 1.093 │ │ σ │ 10.015 │ 0.218 │ 0.014 │ 9.623 │ 9.868 │ 10.008 │ 10.157 │ 10.439 │ 241.648 │ 235.129 │ 1.003 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Computing... 0%|▏ | ETA: 0:01:50 ( 0.28 s/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1000 Avgℓobjective: -3738.0463037499435 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.907367548158163 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:01 ( 3.23 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1099 Avgℓobjective: -3738.602662902551 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.5576053976529632 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -3737.994, variance: 0.018 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -3738.603, variance: 0.162 Total number of jittering steps: 114. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.535, -0.023, 0.38, 0.73, 0.962]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.271 │ 0.299 │ 0.026 │ -0.222 │ 0.069 │ 0.251 │ 0.447 │ 0.959 │ 130.057 │ 135.447 │ 1.039 │ │ σ │ 10.02 │ 0.222 │ 0.013 │ 9.549 │ 9.857 │ 10.03 │ 10.185 │ 10.418 │ 308.45 │ 220.192 │ 1.011 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Computing... 32%|████████▏ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 0.83 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1132 Avgℓobjective: -1563.4626233271608 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8150604758992961 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 62%|███████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 1.25 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1162 Avgℓobjective: -1563.0625588576615 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9140378906312393 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 77%|███████████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 1.36 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1177 Avgℓobjective: -1563.185407750709 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.2967574518161107 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 94%|███████████████████████▋ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 1.39 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1194 Avgℓobjective: -1563.2341684551259 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.6558831991863425 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:00 ( 1.42 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1199 Avgℓobjective: -1562.853964841764 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.48226745273824534 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1564.569, variance: 9.57 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1562.854, variance: 0.514 Total number of jittering steps: 232. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.648, 0.199, 0.566, 0.851, 1.0]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ -0.029 │ 0.03 │ 0.004 │ -0.087 │ -0.051 │ -0.028 │ -0.009 │ 0.031 │ 61.126 │ 50.289 │ 1.062 │ │ σ │ 1.005 │ 0.026 │ 0.002 │ 0.954 │ 0.988 │ 1.005 │ 1.022 │ 1.063 │ 155.344 │ 55.245 │ 1.108 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Computing... 0%| | ETA: 0:05:43 ( 0.43 s/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1000 Avgℓobjective: -50336.53349747287 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: NaN generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 13%|███▎ | ETA: 0:00:13 (18.88 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1050 Avgℓobjective: -3738.621009146973 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.6983507110047069 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 14%|███▌ | ETA: 0:00:12 (17.79 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1056 Avgℓobjective: -3738.457958773647 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.46691275494576423 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 16%|████ | ETA: 0:00:12 (17.43 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1062 Avgℓobjective: -3738.1143021210432 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.06985036356878144 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 17%|████▎ | ETA: 0:00:11 (16.95 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1067 Avgℓobjective: -3738.37511932156 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.4980293941430688 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 18%|████▋ | ETA: 0:00:11 (16.39 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 74 logobjective: -3735.691030827552 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 4.0229704008429105e-8 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 2 ℓH: -3736.266618654649                         Computing... 20%|█████ | ETA: 0:00:10 (15.98 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1078 Avgℓobjective: -3738.789821183771 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.34172705210874854 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 21%|█████▎ | ETA: 0:00:10 (15.74 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1083 Avgℓobjective: -3738.8130537955117 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.27010083170539884 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 22%|█████▌ | ETA: 0:00:10 (15.60 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 89 logobjective: -3735.7426843664466 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 3.915818292635115e-6 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -3736.270551900721                         Computing... 23%|█████▊ | ETA: 0:00:10 (15.54 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 93 logobjective: -3736.3211570434687 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 7.359043352641095e-74 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3736.3690682233328                         Computing... 24%|██████ | ETA: 0:00:10 (15.76 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1095 Avgℓobjective: -3739.3054041700866 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.6741918928600282 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 25%|██████▎ | ETA: 0:00:09 (15.57 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1000 Avgℓobjective: -50336.53349747287 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: NaN generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 35%|████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:07 (13.73 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1040 Avgℓobjective: -3802.2102450948496 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.7917685211404311 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 37%|█████████▏ | ETA: 0:00:07 (13.78 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 47 logobjective: -3736.7725485753226 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 3.3835770595579377e-159 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3737.6513578990903                         Computing... 38%|█████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:07 (13.62 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1052 Avgℓobjective: -3738.7844433711953 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.04511878110610218 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 40%|█████████▉ | ETA: 0:00:07 (13.54 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1057 Avgℓobjective: -3739.350041668268 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.18521940618114735 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 41%|██████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:06 (13.41 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 64 logobjective: -3735.9729924623916 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 5.74138658715969e-13 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 2 ℓH: -3737.0505014461755                         Computing... 42%|██████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:06 (13.46 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 69 logobjective: -3735.914833857821 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 2.435264995699353e-23 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3737.149592330453                         Computing... 43%|██████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:06 (13.48 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1072 Avgℓobjective: -3738.3093748002266 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.24283098994257005 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 45%|███████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:06 (13.37 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 81 logobjective: -3735.849009789145 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.14071921372625448 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -3736.9802631892508                         Computing... 46%|███████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:06 (13.39 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1084 Avgℓobjective: -3737.9743400032803 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.15950821820470873 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 47%|███████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:06 (13.42 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1088 Avgℓobjective: -3738.351838873421 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.6914295033357671 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 49%|████████████▏ | ETA: 0:00:05 (13.34 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 95 logobjective: -3735.8346908680655 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 2.7192171248961085e-22 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3736.880801426257                         Computing... 50%|████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:05 (13.29 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 100 logobjective: -3735.438781012305 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 6.731797496048779e-42 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3738.202275545844                         Computing... 59%|██████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:04 (11.94 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1036 Avgℓobjective: -3748.378479387663 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9430153322400145 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 62%|███████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:04 (12.14 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 48 logobjective: -3735.759596584822 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 6.253208080775262e-41 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3736.3613483450076                         Computing... 63%|███████████████▋ | ETA: 0:00:04 (12.34 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 51 logobjective: -3735.6416015454074 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 4.5704540432602676e-48 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3735.685651119114                         Computing... 63%|███████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:04 (12.47 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1052 Avgℓobjective: -3738.2531954222795 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.01030525216120115 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 65%|████████████████▏ | ETA: 0:00:04 (12.66 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 59 logobjective: -3736.3750568037603 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 4.684703186996873e-7 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3736.8936149740557                         Computing... 65%|████████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:04 (12.81 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1060 Avgℓobjective: -3738.7209665721743 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.1395727640867348 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 66%|████████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:04 (12.88 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1063 Avgℓobjective: -3739.2223936453825 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8347750501532142 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 67%|████████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:03 (13.01 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1067 Avgℓobjective: -3738.7443629264135 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.24975146587098387 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 68%|█████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:03 (13.05 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1070 Avgℓobjective: -3737.785574974561 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.45063546835384616 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 68%|█████████████████▏ | ETA: 0:00:03 (13.14 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1073 Avgℓobjective: -3738.219230162467 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8390958459299183 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 70%|█████████████████▍ | ETA: 0:00:03 (13.15 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 79 logobjective: -3735.9195990894727 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.0022451365636927986 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -3736.2059623806767                         Computing... 71%|█████████████████▋ | ETA: 0:00:03 (13.30 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 83 logobjective: -3736.662021428224 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 2.0721347723369574e-44 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3737.509303463561                         Computing... 71%|█████████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:03 (13.40 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1084 Avgℓobjective: -3738.6345135640286 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.10072211790720356 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 72%|██████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:03 (13.43 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1088 Avgℓobjective: -3738.2908598278773 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.5261492903575683 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 73%|██████████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:03 (13.52 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1092 Avgℓobjective: -3738.1986319103926 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.3694309385797333 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 74%|██████████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:03 (13.62 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1094 Avgℓobjective: -3737.9712624181307 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.207115810516154 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 74%|██████████████████▋ | ETA: 0:00:03 (13.65 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1097 Avgℓobjective: -3738.272682008637 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.6776498292332069 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 80%|████████████████████▏ | ETA: 0:00:02 (12.80 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1021 Avgℓobjective: -4915.011388578957 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.1447671111157506 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 86%|█████████████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:01 (13.03 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1044 Avgℓobjective: -3738.672686841809 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.6945548461532735 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 87%|█████████████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:01 (13.06 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1048 Avgℓobjective: -3738.45678705879 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.18098946201209556 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 88%|██████████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:01 (13.15 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1051 Avgℓobjective: -3738.37395262929 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.2102295328671965 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 90%|██████████████████████▍ | ETA: 0:00:01 (13.21 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 59 logobjective: -3735.855771280338 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.967300147204418e-35 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3735.9186530684815                         Computing... 91%|██████████████████████▋ | ETA: 0:00:01 (13.24 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 63 logobjective: -3736.1743634811014 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 3.4431228900259194e-36 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3738.593926895493                         Computing... 91%|██████████████████████▉ | ETA: 0:00:01 (13.38 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 66 logobjective: -3735.778133359545 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 9.335276259635764e-127 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3735.962867978393                         Computing... 92%|███████████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:01 (13.44 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1068 Avgℓobjective: -3737.931352190949 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.7859468676207788 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 93%|███████████████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:01 (13.48 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1071 Avgℓobjective: -3738.5169642562287 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.03884447306555672 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 94%|███████████████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:01 (13.53 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1074 Avgℓobjective: -3738.656869083867 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.19478738907625723 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 94%|███████████████████████▋ | ETA: 0:00:01 (13.62 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 78 logobjective: -3736.80347358324 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.2393594447409769e-11 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -3737.8699836009037                         Computing... 96%|████████████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:00 (13.57 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1082 Avgℓobjective: -3738.631526194894 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.5778832780373626 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 97%|████████████████████████▎| ETA: 0:00:00 (13.60 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1086 Avgℓobjective: -3738.187857184205 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.2039188961692705 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 98%|████████████████████████▍| ETA: 0:00:00 (13.67 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1089 Avgℓobjective: -3738.38244933887 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.009945112560599101 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 98%|████████████████████████▌| ETA: 0:00:00 (13.73 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 93 logobjective: -3735.856944484564 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 4.767626923990061e-12 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 2 ℓH: -3739.230737333428                         Computing... 99%|████████████████████████▊| ETA: 0:00:00 (13.74 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1095 Avgℓobjective: -3738.131070212509 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.3581599824313765 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:11 (13.75 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1099 Avgℓobjective: -3738.3340549424875 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.63471920126756 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -17056.489, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.755. NUTS sampler had 43 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.567 (3) number of steps and depth of 0.811 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 39, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 4, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -30923.139, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.439. NUTS sampler had 60 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.578 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.689 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 52, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 8, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -13363.033, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.322. NUTS sampler had 47 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.478 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.767 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 43, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 4, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -20802.759, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.724. NUTS sampler had 60 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.767 (3) number of steps and depth of 0.744 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 52, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 8, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -19997.498, variance: 1.79806212855e8 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -3738.208, variance: 0.397 Total number of jittering steps: 238. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.165, 0.273, 0.595, 0.846, 0.997]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 2: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -24208.697, variance: 6.7957279e7 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -3738.92, variance: 2.165 Total number of jittering steps: 285. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.382, 0.144, 0.654, 0.877, 0.999]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 3: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -14760.889, variance: 3.3143807667e7 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -3738.244, variance: 0.863 Total number of jittering steps: 221. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.522, 0.22, 0.689, 0.86, 0.999]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 4: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -18923.156, variance: 1.00568165324e8 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -3738.334, variance: 0.034 Total number of jittering steps: 234. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.476, 0.047, 0.543, 0.807, 0.998]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.215 │ 0.282 │ 0.046 │ -0.176 │ -0.024 │ 0.145 │ 0.405 │ 0.823 │ 41.597 │ 268.673 │ 1.082 │ │ σ │ 9.136 │ 2.329 │ 0.477 │ 2.416 │ 9.734 │ 9.976 │ 10.172 │ 10.924 │ 59.441 │ 69.106 │ 1.133 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Computing... 0%| | ETA: 0:03:22 ( 0.25 s/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1100 Avgℓobjective: -3387.505099948209 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.15948428960259614 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 2%|▋ | ETA: 0:00:24 (30.69 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1109 Avgℓobjective: -1579.5978345347066 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8978550274804851 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 22%|█████▌ | ETA: 0:00:03 ( 5.18 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1186 Avgℓobjective: -1570.1462176898422 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.26251896528762153 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 28%|███████▏ | ETA: 0:00:03 ( 4.55 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1113 Avgℓobjective: -1570.53926666588 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.18520973590582343 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 63%|███████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 3.36 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 152 logobjective: -1569.733906079414 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 5.554199461678278e-29 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1572.7838107382904                         Computing... 68%|█████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 3.62 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 173 logobjective: -1570.1859384295276 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.0760836262380583e-283 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1574.7331597944926                         Computing... 70%|█████████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 3.73 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1179 Avgℓobjective: -1571.0518359034086 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.4634398858979851 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 72%|██████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 3.81 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1188 Avgℓobjective: -1571.0970217967142 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.5761949264683364 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 74%|██████████████████▋ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 3.87 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1197 Avgℓobjective: -1570.9424474400148 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.10053615903843029 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 77%|███████████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 4.01 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1107 Avgℓobjective: -1762.6044289880697 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9814476988707596 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 99%|████████████████████████▊| ETA: 0:00:00 ( 3.26 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 197 logobjective: -1570.2380644187228 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 2.9308236482499913e-34 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -1570.3354947998296                         Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:02 ( 3.25 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1199 Avgℓobjective: -1570.0085371955315 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.3097780487835032 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1572.7, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1569.685. NUTS sampler had 48 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.433 (3) number of steps and depth of 0.744 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 43, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 5, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1570.831, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1570.161. NUTS sampler had 52 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.5 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.767 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 40, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 12, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1884.459, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1569.881. NUTS sampler had 47 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.544 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.8 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 40, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 7, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1570.27, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1571.239. NUTS sampler had 49 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.711 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.911 (0). Divergences in: Warmup: 39, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 10, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1579.575, variance: 278.055 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1570.414, variance: 0.231 Total number of jittering steps: 243. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.61, 0.582, 0.878, 0.955, 0.995]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 2: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1570.649, variance: 0.321 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1570.766, variance: 0.205 Total number of jittering steps: 105. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.655, 0.103, 0.401, 0.715, 0.92]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 3: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1824.538, variance: 114327.533 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1570.206, variance: 0.312 Total number of jittering steps: 302. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.305, 0.227, 0.605, 0.928, 1.0]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 6.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 4: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1570.226, variance: 0.347 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1570.009, variance: 0.187 Total number of jittering steps: 203. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.141, 0.211, 0.628, 0.875, 0.982]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 7.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ -0.003 │ 0.048 │ 0.004 │ -0.068 │ -0.03 │ -0.006 │ 0.013 │ 0.095 │ 77.898 │ 33.408 │ 1.04 │ │ σ │ 1.022 │ 0.076 │ 0.008 │ 0.962 │ 0.995 │ 1.008 │ 1.027 │ 1.203 │ 188.129 │ 45.483 │ 1.034 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Computing... 0%|▏ | ETA: 0:02:39 ( 0.40 s/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 2 logobjective: -1079.8232668525707 Temperature: 0.289050497374996 accepted: true acceptancerate: 2.0009197115821995e-7 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1082.727215452687                         Computing... 57%|██████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 3.96 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 27 logobjective: -3108.5526742600628 Temperature: 0.8320183851339245 accepted: true acceptancerate: 3.546297939050627e-33 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 2 ℓH: -3108.887066820185                         Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:00 ( 2.50 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 100 logobjective: -3736.2763709469127 Temperature: 0.9998636296729204 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.998310296118526 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 55 ℓH: -3736.983818267391 Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1868.81, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.708. NUTS sampler had 38 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 16.422 (87) number of steps and depth of 2.011 (6). Divergences in: Warmup: 38, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1869.064, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.447. NUTS sampler had 23 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 11.467 (31) number of steps and depth of 2.022 (5). Divergences in: Warmup: 23, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1868.083, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.044. NUTS sampler had 47 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 20.867 (15) number of steps and depth of 2.089 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 47, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.857, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3736.276. NUTS sampler had 23 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 14.322 (55) number of steps and depth of 2.067 (5). Divergences in: Warmup: 23, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.054 │ 0.273 │ 0.097 │ -0.335 │ -0.189 │ 0.051 │ 0.306 │ 0.581 │ 8.127 │ 18.521 │ 1.514 │ │ σ │ 10.088 │ 0.203 │ 0.055 │ 9.72 │ 9.966 │ 10.12 │ 10.295 │ 10.334 │ 15.727 │ 17.895 │ 1.189 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Computing... 0%|▏ | ETA: 0:01:43 ( 0.26 s/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 102 logobjective: -1079.7728150951116 Temperature: 0.289050497374996 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9999632123414102 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 63 ℓH: -1079.968690669523                         Computing... 29%|███████▎ | ETA: 0:00:02 ( 5.39 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 117 logobjective: -2413.006698365571 Temperature: 0.6456563062257954 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.99986161544737 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 63 ℓH: -2413.7410372046634                         Computing... 56%|██████████████ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 3.41 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 124 logobjective: -2936.7547601582287 Temperature: 0.7858349830425586 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9993743116917254 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 95 ℓH: -2938.8841226736195                         Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:00 ( 2.22 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 200 logobjective: -3737.8444489676453 Temperature: 0.9998636296729204 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9986235274638371 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 7 ℓH: -3742.699747986274 Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1868.743, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.391. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 24.222 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.767 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1868.337, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3736.293. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 20.6 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.722 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1871.154, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3737.968. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 25.511 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.611 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1868.029, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3737.844. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 23.156 (7) number of steps and depth of 3.622 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.3 │ 0.336 │ 0.04 │ -0.392 │ 0.061 │ 0.306 │ 0.519 │ 0.949 │ 73.808 │ 67.823 │ 1.047 │ │ σ │ 10.027 │ 0.25 │ 0.015 │ 9.57 │ 9.858 │ 10.019 │ 10.212 │ 10.493 │ 256.109 │ 174.92 │ 1.001 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Computing... 0%|▏ | ETA: 0:01:32 ( 0.23 s/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1000 Avgℓobjective: -1080.9703309497045 Temperature: 0.289050497374996 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.42609894449069036 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 32%|████████ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 4.51 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1032 Avgℓobjective: -3365.9714474356447 Temperature: 0.9002495108803148 ESS: 3.998861355026046 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.2650787586984175 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 60%|███████████████ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 2.83 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1060 Avgℓobjective: -3713.202323432209 Temperature: 0.9933071490757153 ESS: 3.9999958276315652 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.2889157505428345 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:00 ( 1.95 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1099 Avgℓobjective: -3738.509852753169 Temperature: 0.9998636296729204 ESS: 3.9999999996100444 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.6381086053828944 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1869.282, variance: 0.18 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -3738.51, variance: 0.217 Total number of jittering steps: 122. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.398, 0.016, 0.451, 0.658, 0.942]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 7.1]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.996, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.321 │ 0.038 │ -0.265 │ 0.052 │ 0.321 │ 0.546 │ 0.863 │ 69.49 │ 106.798 │ 1.04 │ │ σ │ 10.029 │ 0.219 │ 0.013 │ 9.655 │ 9.882 │ 10.021 │ 10.191 │ 10.444 │ 278.546 │ 297.819 │ 1.005 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Computing... 68%|█████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 0.37 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1167 Avgℓobjective: -1541.5289713908892 Temperature: 0.9966651926925867 ESS: 3.9999993881886744 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8733869644516183 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:00 ( 0.86 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1199 Avgℓobjective: -1546.2194622229404 Temperature: 0.9998636296729204 ESS: 3.9999999988004546 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.2981027957123338 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -778.103, variance: 20.909 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1546.219, variance: 0.743 Total number of jittering steps: 228. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.561, 0.06, 0.386, 0.745, 0.99]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.969, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ -0.02 │ 0.027 │ 0.002 │ -0.074 │ -0.039 │ -0.019 │ -0.002 │ 0.028 │ 205.222 │ 244.678 │ 1.013 │ │ σ │ 0.981 │ 0.024 │ 0.003 │ 0.938 │ 0.973 │ 0.984 │ 0.996 │ 1.021 │ 49.044 │ 20.607 │ 1.067 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Computing... 0%| | ETA: 0:05:38 ( 0.42 s/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1000 Avgℓobjective: -15845.774235995284 Temperature: 0.289050497374996 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: NaN generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 13%|███▎ | ETA: 0:00:10 (13.95 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1050 Avgℓobjective: -3671.489240684469 Temperature: 0.9820137900379085 ESS: 3.999995851708388 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.09471255447704813 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 15%|███▊ | ETA: 0:00:11 (15.85 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 60 logobjective: -3708.9554223604014 Temperature: 0.9926084586557181 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.0 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3709.2550149864624                         Computing... 15%|███▉ | ETA: 0:00:11 (16.39 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 62 logobjective: -3712.850741887845 Temperature: 0.9939401985084158 accepted: true acceptancerate: 9.83531066686878e-27 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3713.0473547711504                         Computing... 16%|████ | ETA: 0:00:11 (17.02 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1062 Avgℓobjective: -3717.773248421504 Temperature: 0.9945137011005495 ESS: 3.9999998410572717 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.018523211396162143 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 16%|████ | ETA: 0:00:12 (17.57 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1064 Avgℓobjective: -3720.9181430016674 Temperature: 0.9955037268390589 ESS: 3.9999998855452596 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.294605240462271 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 17%|████▎ | ETA: 0:00:12 (18.05 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1066 Avgℓobjective: -3724.971308658589 Temperature: 0.9963157601005641 ESS: 3.999999863412857 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9602985958541088 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 18%|████▍ | ETA: 0:00:12 (18.10 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 71 logobjective: -3726.4103067170468 Temperature: 0.9975273768433653 accepted: true acceptancerate: 6.276258369336907e-13 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3728.6003983193295                         Computing... 18%|████▌ | ETA: 0:00:12 (18.71 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1072 Avgℓobjective: -3731.300813595914 Temperature: 0.9979746796109501 ESS: 3.999999660325765 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8288954855475014 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 19%|████▋ | ETA: 0:00:12 (19.13 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 75 logobjective: -3729.50308699519 Temperature: 0.9983411989198255 accepted: true acceptancerate: 4.647441547845766e-52 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3729.9298977423514                         Computing... 19%|████▊ | ETA: 0:00:13 (19.62 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1076 Avgℓobjective: -3733.2748165946123 Temperature: 0.9986414800495711 ESS: 3.999999959057709 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.7337343466716112 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 20%|█████ | ETA: 0:00:13 (19.87 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1079 Avgℓobjective: -3734.8627957350473 Temperature: 0.9989932291799144 ESS: 3.9999999792576073 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.41109067212232675 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 21%|█████▎ | ETA: 0:00:13 (19.93 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1082 Avgℓobjective: -3735.374639779998 Temperature: 0.9992539711661633 ESS: 3.999999998304972 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.30195265038622576 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 22%|█████▌ | ETA: 0:00:13 (20.15 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 88 logobjective: -3734.5916549688554 Temperature: 0.9995473777767595 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.7529446768018197e-164 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3734.7957607694507                         Computing... 22%|█████▋ | ETA: 0:00:13 (20.34 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1089 Avgℓobjective: -3737.6061619999878 Temperature: 0.9996293938593735 ESS: 3.999999997924334 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.14215182794681902 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 23%|█████▊ | ETA: 0:00:13 (20.60 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1092 Avgℓobjective: -3737.4846389349527 Temperature: 0.9997254218438986 ESS: 3.999999999066107 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.33831774774127626 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 24%|██████ | ETA: 0:00:13 (20.75 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1094 Avgℓobjective: -3737.9648431826236 Temperature: 0.9997751832297667 ESS: 3.9999999972668823 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.048128480593919776 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 24%|██████ | ETA: 0:00:13 (20.86 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1096 Avgℓobjective: -3737.5089493863384 Temperature: 0.9998159280950366 ESS: 3.9999999998919407 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.15816197002241394 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 25%|██████▎ | ETA: 0:00:13 (20.93 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1099 Avgℓobjective: -3737.9344412183214 Temperature: 0.9998636296729204 ESS: 3.9999999997444204 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.6055105420876488 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 49%|████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:06 (15.11 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1094 Avgℓobjective: -3738.2176211115566 Temperature: 0.9997751832297667 ESS: 3.9999999992553077 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.5591468568497202 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 50%|████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:06 (15.07 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 1 logobjective: -15845.783500256874 Temperature: 0.289050497374996 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.0 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -15846.092002326432                         Computing... 59%|██████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:05 (14.07 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 36 logobjective: -3456.334248727302 Temperature: 0.9241418199787566 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.0 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3457.4707665887295                         Computing... 60%|███████████████▏ | ETA: 0:00:05 (14.52 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 42 logobjective: -3574.959666164236 Temperature: 0.9568927450589139 accepted: true acceptancerate: 6.635094397099037e-32 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -3577.2767657961986                         Computing... 61%|███████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:05 (14.69 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1042 Avgℓobjective: -3592.2155042421164 Temperature: 0.9608342772032357 ESS: 3.9999988536722846 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.09374823068803062 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 65%|████████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:04 (14.00 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 61 logobjective: -3710.4622251157007 Temperature: 0.9933071490757153 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.0579739007505516e-57 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3711.084439946397                         Computing... 68%|█████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:04 (13.73 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1071 Avgℓobjective: -3730.3366251067737 Temperature: 0.9977621514787236 ESS: 3.9999999547537857 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.37908541077371144 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 70%|█████████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:03 (13.55 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 80 logobjective: -3732.1672651749286 Temperature: 0.9989932291799144 accepted: true acceptancerate: 5.10181305021213e-30 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3732.1965776211227                         Computing... 72%|█████████████████▉ | ETA: 0:00:03 (13.42 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 87 logobjective: -3733.898342129443 Temperature: 0.9994997988929205 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.2629571518902591 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -3734.0974574828756                         Computing... 74%|██████████████████▍ | ETA: 0:00:03 (13.25 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1093 Avgℓobjective: -3737.314315129124 Temperature: 0.9997515449181605 ESS: 3.999999999053 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.5931462211172551 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 75%|██████████████████▉ | ETA: 0:00:03 (13.10 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 2 logobjective: -15845.783500256874 Temperature: 0.289050497374996 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.0 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -15846.663591248574                         Computing... 93%|███████████████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:01 (12.22 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 72 logobjective: -3727.0939738046895 Temperature: 0.9977621514787236 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.00011007078578291176 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -3727.373162565705                         Computing... 95%|███████████████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:01 (12.13 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1078 Avgℓobjective: -3735.1480665185545 Temperature: 0.9988874639671398 ESS: 3.999999709183788 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.5496955846176154 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 96%|████████████████████████▏| ETA: 0:00:00 (12.05 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1085 Avgℓobjective: -3737.1242765077122 Temperature: 0.9994472213630764 ESS: 3.999999975158646 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9105686266516455 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 98%|████████████████████████▌| ETA: 0:00:00 (11.98 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1092 Avgℓobjective: -3737.415115665931 Temperature: 0.9997254218438986 ESS: 3.9999999989267057 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.3533351063629721 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:09 (11.92 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1099 Avgℓobjective: -3737.921215051289 Temperature: 0.9998636296729204 ESS: 3.9999999999738494 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.3057562269105752 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -8322.517, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3734.982. NUTS sampler had 63 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.522 (2) number of steps and depth of 0.644 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 50, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 13, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -21425.453, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3734.927. NUTS sampler had 60 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.456 (3) number of steps and depth of 0.622 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 52, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 8, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2509.48, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3736.233. NUTS sampler had 53 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.622 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.733 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 45, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 8, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -6965.717, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3734.938. NUTS sampler had 50 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.489 (2) number of steps and depth of 0.733 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 42, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 8, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -8279.0, variance: 16.196 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -3737.934, variance: 0.205 Total number of jittering steps: 209. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.591, 0.005, 0.397, 0.828, 1.0]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [1.001, 3.984, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 2: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -18961.62, variance: 3.66173038e6 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -3738.151, variance: 0.7 Total number of jittering steps: 204. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.175, 0.208, 0.583, 0.888, 0.997]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [1.0, 3.823, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 3: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -2504.421, variance: 94.004 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -3737.989, variance: 0.149 Total number of jittering steps: 200. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.46, 0.072, 0.472, 0.747, 0.971]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [1.257, 3.994, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 4: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -6915.054, variance: 1969.695 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -3737.921, variance: 0.333 Total number of jittering steps: 203. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.537, 0.159, 0.554, 0.811, 0.992]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [1.009, 3.948, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.23 │ 0.286 │ 0.039 │ -0.171 │ -0.02 │ 0.163 │ 0.456 │ 0.842 │ 44.947 │ 249.644 │ 1.051 │ │ σ │ 11.258 │ 8.185 │ 1.18 │ 2.299 │ 9.812 │ 9.997 │ 10.204 │ 38.477 │ 49.325 │ 36.584 │ 1.157 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Computing... 0%| | ETA: 0:03:29 ( 0.26 s/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1100 Avgℓobjective: -914.0793236357274 Temperature: 0.289050497374996 ESS: 3.999999999873488 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.2642179774198939 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 6%|█▌ | ETA: 0:00:10 (13.61 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1123 Avgℓobjective: -1219.969347057167 Temperature: 0.7858349830425586 ESS: 3.8949894384563306 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.605572410177767 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 11%|██▋ | ETA: 0:00:08 (10.92 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 143 logobjective: -1484.593395767855 Temperature: 0.9608342772032357 accepted: true acceptancerate: 5.797118783112691e-193 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1486.466512808272                         Computing... 13%|███▏ | ETA: 0:00:07 (10.21 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 151 logobjective: -1517.5210454670425 Temperature: 0.9820137900379085 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.6799893743815895e-7 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1517.8363744749488                         Computing... 15%|███▋ | ETA: 0:00:07 ( 9.76 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 159 logobjective: -1532.1529308491056 Temperature: 0.9918374288468401 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.3333333333345943 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -1533.358422839916                         Computing... 16%|████▏ | ETA: 0:00:06 ( 9.46 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1165 Avgℓobjective: -1539.55561437972 Temperature: 0.995929862284104 ESS: 3.9999997427775322 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.19663552944704407 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 27%|██████▊ | ETA: 0:00:04 ( 6.43 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1106 Avgℓobjective: -1228.5984973383224 Temperature: 0.401312339887548 ESS: 1.9179113935876402 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9018648734846213 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 35%|████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:03 ( 5.78 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1138 Avgℓobjective: -1458.961110545665 Temperature: 0.9426758241011313 ESS: 3.999735537182644 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.039632544335905545 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 38%|█████████▋ | ETA: 0:00:03 ( 5.55 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1153 Avgℓobjective: -1524.6387153131636 Temperature: 0.9866130821723351 ESS: 3.9999962211577453 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.5456413713130112 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 42%|██████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:02 ( 5.36 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1168 Avgℓobjective: -1540.4925586526692 Temperature: 0.9969815836752917 ESS: 3.99999988509678 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.2552224459787165 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 48%|████████████▏ | ETA: 0:00:02 ( 4.93 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1193 Avgℓobjective: -1545.7413337921923 Temperature: 0.9997515449181605 ESS: 3.999999993144005 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.09833328566989896 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 56%|█████████████▉ | ETA: 0:00:02 ( 4.54 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 123 logobjective: -1187.3407760615114 Temperature: 0.7685247834990178 accepted: true acceptancerate: 7.149510928847098e-52 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1187.9287469427                         Computing... 62%|███████████████▋ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 4.31 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 150 logobjective: -1515.1431122698832 Temperature: 0.9801596942659225 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.3907617578605189e-28 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1515.8308218917623                         Computing... 68%|█████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 4.13 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 173 logobjective: -1542.021915946544 Temperature: 0.9979746796109501 accepted: true acceptancerate: 8.040132881120161e-200 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1543.1085550694186                         Computing... 75%|██████████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 3.93 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1100 Avgℓobjective: -991.1542522292377 Temperature: 0.289050497374996 ESS: 3.999999999794749 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.03983563409974705 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 82%|████████████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 3.78 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1126 Avgℓobjective: -1285.8278618177035 Temperature: 0.8320183851339245 ESS: 3.999989065577234 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.3664818107190331 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 88%|██████████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 3.71 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1150 Avgℓobjective: -1518.0150887893806 Temperature: 0.9820137900379085 ESS: 3.9999938102901096 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8443500183387456 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 94%|███████████████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 3.60 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1175 Avgℓobjective: -1543.168871261428 Temperature: 0.998498817743263 ESS: 3.9999998694384455 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.34006938548626714 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:02 ( 3.44 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1199 Avgℓobjective: -1544.9731660892012 Temperature: 0.9998636296729204 ESS: 3.9999999996544213 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9021463860594927 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1352.977, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1546.413. NUTS sampler had 59 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.667 (2) number of steps and depth of 0.8 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 53, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 6, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1217.171, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1545.335. NUTS sampler had 51 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.644 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.844 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 42, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 9, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -830.207, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1544.745. NUTS sampler had 49 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.633 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.878 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 39, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 10, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1115.15, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1544.842. NUTS sampler had 48 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.867 (3) number of steps and depth of 0.956 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 43, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 5, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1334.826, variance: 77.595 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1545.383, variance: 0.888 Total number of jittering steps: 269. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.525, 0.312, 0.681, 0.861, 1.0]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [2.435, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 2: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1211.226, variance: 73.404 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1546.159, variance: 2.091 Total number of jittering steps: 230. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.659, 0.315, 0.679, 0.864, 0.997]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.75, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [1.535, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 3: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -795.801, variance: 459.77 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1545.419, variance: 0.06 Total number of jittering steps: 171. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.736, 0.044, 0.47, 0.731, 1.0]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.739, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 4: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1049.006, variance: 1727.405 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1544.973, variance: 0.096 Total number of jittering steps: 191. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.501, 0.237, 0.644, 0.855, 1.0]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [2.009, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ -0.009 │ 0.104 │ 0.02 │ -0.096 │ -0.053 │ -0.028 │ -0.006 │ 0.357 │ 88.605 │ 27.517 │ 1.029 │ │ σ │ 1.017 │ 0.288 │ 0.026 │ 0.869 │ 0.965 │ 0.983 │ 0.997 │ 1.107 │ 228.212 │ 63.425 │ 1.037 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Computing... 0%|▏ | ETA: 0:02:26 ( 0.37 s/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 1 logobjective: -1868.060772456049 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.6628644500411783 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1868.3389423048475                         Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:00 ( 2.34 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 100 logobjective: -1868.8169144096773 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9997933683823239 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 39 ℓH: -1868.8450672974175 Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1868.647, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1871.282. NUTS sampler had 32 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 18.4 (15) number of steps and depth of 2.056 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 32, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1868.308, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1867.823. NUTS sampler had 12 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 12.667 (31) number of steps and depth of 2.1 (5). Divergences in: Warmup: 12, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1868.49, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1870.393. NUTS sampler had 27 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 15.367 (63) number of steps and depth of 2.167 (6). Divergences in: Warmup: 27, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.88, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1868.817. NUTS sampler had 19 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 20.267 (39) number of steps and depth of 2.211 (5). Divergences in: Warmup: 19, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.118 │ 0.35 │ 0.083 │ -0.354 │ -0.162 │ 0.116 │ 0.341 │ 0.834 │ 16.875 │ 69.477 │ 1.194 │ │ σ │ 10.034 │ 0.319 │ 0.072 │ 9.583 │ 9.797 │ 9.989 │ 10.18 │ 10.699 │ 22.718 │ 16.885 │ 1.178 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Computing... 0%|▏ | ETA: 0:01:31 ( 0.23 s/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 101 logobjective: -1868.5309807472233 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9986891823630181 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 55 ℓH: -1869.79402721838                         Computing... 15%|███▊ | ETA: 0:00:03 ( 9.48 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 115 logobjective: -1867.702351014093 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9998916017260403 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 55 ℓH: -1869.2722043639037                         Computing... 29%|███████▎ | ETA: 0:00:02 ( 5.82 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 129 logobjective: -1868.5720855183 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9998955495739102 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 7 ℓH: -1868.7077427523238                         Computing... 72%|██████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 2.71 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 172 logobjective: -1867.6597957582042 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9969735293476333 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 11 ℓH: -1868.6400219297                         Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:00 ( 2.12 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 200 logobjective: -1868.8141828207374 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9894186563052505 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 15 ℓH: -1869.851086314739 Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1868.121, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1869.923. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 30.467 (7) number of steps and depth of 4.067 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1868.776, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1868.201. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 20.489 (11) number of steps and depth of 3.656 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1868.532, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1868.989. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 22.311 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.733 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1868.695, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1868.814. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 26.667 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.933 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.301 │ 0.357 │ 0.036 │ -0.441 │ 0.072 │ 0.329 │ 0.53 │ 0.936 │ 98.21 │ 145.976 │ 1.038 │ │ σ │ 10.028 │ 0.304 │ 0.019 │ 9.473 │ 9.835 │ 10.018 │ 10.216 │ 10.665 │ 270.04 │ 223.052 │ 1.006 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Computing... 0%|▏ | ETA: 0:01:32 ( 0.23 s/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1000 Avgℓobjective: -1869.259479029375 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8274634772518323 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:00 ( 2.36 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1099 Avgℓobjective: -1870.297167095889 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.06917985896007853 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1869.633, variance: 0.16 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1870.297, variance: 1.646 Total number of jittering steps: 125. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.495, 0.079, 0.566, 0.788, 0.972]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 4.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.24 │ 0.393 │ 0.05 │ -0.458 │ -0.017 │ 0.224 │ 0.476 │ 1.06 │ 56.875 │ 77.269 │ 1.066 │ │ σ │ 10.052 │ 0.285 │ 0.022 │ 9.501 │ 9.873 │ 10.046 │ 10.237 │ 10.587 │ 177.069 │ 152.701 │ 1.031 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Computing... 67%|████████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 0.37 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1166 Avgℓobjective: -774.860714624245 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.5323249989625624 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:00 ( 0.43 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1199 Avgℓobjective: -774.0861817504868 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.12490407928496469 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -779.825, variance: 62.266 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -774.086, variance: 0.05 Total number of jittering steps: 201. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.184, 0.194, 0.588, 0.834, 0.967]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 9.55]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.016 │ 0.038 │ 0.006 │ -0.058 │ -0.01 │ 0.013 │ 0.04 │ 0.091 │ 35.526 │ 42.046 │ 1.106 │ │ σ │ 0.985 │ 0.035 │ 0.007 │ 0.929 │ 0.96 │ 0.984 │ 1.004 │ 1.062 │ 36.195 │ 30.065 │ 1.111 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Computing... 0%| | ETA: 0:06:00 ( 0.45 s/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1000 Avgℓobjective: -26936.381542750925 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: NaN generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 22%|█████▍ | ETA: 0:00:08 (11.99 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 22 logobjective: -1868.1325836597912 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.8056443179352482e-9 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -1868.364220951407                         Computing... 24%|█████▉ | ETA: 0:00:08 (12.43 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1023 Avgℓobjective: -1873.167778474228 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.816189208178612 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 24%|██████ | ETA: 0:00:08 (12.82 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1024 Avgℓobjective: -2443.4047730102493 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9171383528553476 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 25%|██████▎ | ETA: 0:00:08 (12.91 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 26 logobjective: -2680.3787191552765 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.07677710778421541 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -2680.405084102498                         Computing... 26%|██████▌ | ETA: 0:00:08 (13.00 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1025 Avgℓobjective: -1986.9045976867383 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9468994223264239 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 27%|██████▊ | ETA: 0:00:08 (13.12 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1026 Avgℓobjective: -1987.3986946228242 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.901219422319244 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 29%|███████▎ | ETA: 0:00:07 (13.11 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 29 logobjective: -1868.734481276647 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.00046579643140239 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -1869.3161483978108                         Computing... 30%|███████▌ | ETA: 0:00:07 (13.13 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1029 Avgℓobjective: -1986.6754307525403 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9882282724967475 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 31%|███████▊ | ETA: 0:00:07 (13.18 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 31 logobjective: -1868.1763576392066 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 3.912937870672104e-5 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -1868.4102771598518                         Computing... 32%|████████ | ETA: 0:00:07 (13.34 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1031 Avgℓobjective: -1885.8104674798865 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9656704861674394 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 33%|████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:07 (13.24 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 34 logobjective: -1868.5502116396208 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.24404062946724522 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -1868.7539437068297                         Computing... 34%|████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:07 (13.43 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1034 Avgℓobjective: -1885.7183066323105 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9140364883868158 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 36%|█████████ | ETA: 0:00:07 (13.53 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1036 Avgℓobjective: -1882.7473155089 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.6966028524170159 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 38%|█████████▍ | ETA: 0:00:07 (13.62 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1037 Avgℓobjective: -1873.9295159752423 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.6590511119759177 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 38%|█████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:07 (13.78 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1038 Avgℓobjective: -1873.291858785184 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.40837929743645685 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 40%|██████████ | ETA: 0:00:07 (13.62 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1039 Avgℓobjective: -1869.7216287533677 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.40981654385095767 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 42%|██████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:06 (13.37 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 43 logobjective: -1869.5196418832872 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 2.2200781207541456e-8 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -1870.0501897070467                         Computing... 44%|██████████▉ | ETA: 0:00:06 (13.21 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 44 logobjective: -1868.3618762090787 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.1107736531717208e-24 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1868.6920230005223                         Computing... 45%|███████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:06 (13.19 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 46 logobjective: -1868.0830196936624 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.4295571473992865 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1868.7610326805304                         Computing... 46%|███████████▋ | ETA: 0:00:06 (13.12 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1046 Avgℓobjective: -1873.3296258055136 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8777965677452222 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 48%|███████████▉ | ETA: 0:00:05 (13.12 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 48 logobjective: -1870.3754908639519 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 2.3021370859910923e-63 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -1872.6145146659037                         Computing... 49%|████████████▏ | ETA: 0:00:05 (13.20 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 49 logobjective: -1868.202215820381 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 9.808581689024483e-74 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1869.284681071103                         Computing... 50%|████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:05 (13.31 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1049 Avgℓobjective: -1869.0745737867253 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.1717337086568611 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 51%|████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:05 (13.29 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1050 Avgℓobjective: -1870.0876135296608 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.5010446098630028 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 52%|█████████████ | ETA: 0:00:05 (13.23 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1052 Avgℓobjective: -1869.6523243395773 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.3809232543842203 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 53%|█████████████▍ | ETA: 0:00:05 (13.30 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 54 logobjective: -1868.1991238399573 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 2.1214359744235933e-9 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1868.91594343056                         Computing... 54%|█████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:05 (13.41 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1054 Avgℓobjective: -1869.5180076438191 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.38167394492730755 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 55%|█████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:05 (13.50 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1055 Avgℓobjective: -1869.0855804780258 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.08357133014607177 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 57%|██████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:05 (13.49 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 58 logobjective: -1868.503645447126 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.17602560027432684 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1870.0148838283346                         Computing... 58%|██████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:05 (13.51 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 59 logobjective: -1867.6737513444336 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 6.799172602367795e-7 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1868.0638563531043                         Computing... 59%|██████████████▉ | ETA: 0:00:04 (13.50 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 60 logobjective: -1881.9586370181587 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.0 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1882.027529839681                         Computing... 60%|███████████████▏ | ETA: 0:00:04 (13.48 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1060 Avgℓobjective: -1872.6194164934336 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9240426937769153 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 62%|███████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:04 (13.47 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 62 logobjective: -1868.871440645471 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.2328222590455547e-20 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1868.980168939031                         Computing... 63%|███████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:04 (13.53 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 63 logobjective: -1868.664636404148 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 5.4636883454520345e-9 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1869.1224422837051                         Computing... 64%|████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:04 (13.61 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1063 Avgℓobjective: -1869.2711633384984 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.2922898750503939 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 65%|████████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:04 (13.57 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 66 logobjective: -1867.924243961744 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.21549184823110287 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -1869.7466382964478                         Computing... 66%|████████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:04 (13.57 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1066 Avgℓobjective: -1869.461519391551 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.4296421197863052 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 68%|████████████████▉ | ETA: 0:00:04 (13.53 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1067 Avgℓobjective: -1872.7780197044742 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9351067662419652 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 69%|█████████████████▏ | ETA: 0:00:03 (13.55 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 69 logobjective: -1868.7740576030692 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 6.318900096363628e-9 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 2 ℓH: -1871.228106285416                         Computing... 70%|█████████████████▍ | ETA: 0:00:03 (13.56 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1069 Avgℓobjective: -1872.6376549393653 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8062962504208722 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 70%|█████████████████▋ | ETA: 0:00:03 (13.61 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 71 logobjective: -1881.9586370181587 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.0 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 2 ℓH: -1882.2174512504976                         Computing... 72%|█████████████████▉ | ETA: 0:00:03 (13.57 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1071 Avgℓobjective: -1872.6088018504988 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.76044876558339 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 73%|██████████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:03 (13.52 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 73 logobjective: -1869.0865176118477 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 9.175491608859016e-8 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1870.5256643435746                         Computing... 74%|██████████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:03 (13.55 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 75 logobjective: -1867.805508512847 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.0462935972924631e-13 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1869.0007993435688                         Computing... 75%|██████████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:03 (13.59 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 75 logobjective: -1868.7977417155969 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 7.783936193599074e-115 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1870.5026875726344                         Computing... 76%|███████████████████▏ | ETA: 0:00:03 (13.52 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 77 logobjective: -1868.1703151315228 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.004491661777520249 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -1869.1542888725437                         Computing... 78%|███████████████████▍ | ETA: 0:00:02 (13.50 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 78 logobjective: -1867.808461165501 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.1976330605055213e-7 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1868.3387065427246                         Computing... 79%|███████████████████▋ | ETA: 0:00:02 (13.52 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 79 logobjective: -1868.5764570124015 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.33333333338134224 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -1869.2033619202246                         Computing... 80%|████████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:02 (13.48 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1080 Avgℓobjective: -1869.5896848337393 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.28645653938067905 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 81%|████████████████████▍ | ETA: 0:00:02 (13.48 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 82 logobjective: -1868.0893568244346 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 2.2111219350095057e-9 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1869.045658876228                         Computing... 82%|████████████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:02 (13.52 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1082 Avgℓobjective: -1869.5858764676295 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.5379826137776211 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 83%|████████████████████▉ | ETA: 0:00:02 (13.54 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 84 logobjective: -1868.2472459021092 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 5.870953180470465e-11 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1869.417055113211                         Computing... 85%|█████████████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:02 (13.56 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1084 Avgℓobjective: -1870.1108085910676 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.01800945180862107 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 86%|█████████████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:02 (13.61 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1085 Avgℓobjective: -1869.6022476658327 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.5399183124734275 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 87%|█████████████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:01 (13.54 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 88 logobjective: -1867.7611808560316 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.00013730371883043728 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -1869.604886607372                         Computing... 88%|██████████████████████▏ | ETA: 0:00:01 (13.58 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 89 logobjective: -1869.0133103140038 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.3088733406425314e-23 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1869.3550733516706                         Computing... 89%|██████████████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:01 (13.63 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 90 logobjective: -1869.1015674928883 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.1292488576956215e-10 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -1869.4234757192828                         Computing... 91%|██████████████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:01 (13.59 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1090 Avgℓobjective: -1869.2080572503153 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.4460880374728571 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 94%|███████████████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:01 (13.45 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1093 Avgℓobjective: -1870.2984015056036 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.7821816380829497 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 95%|███████████████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:01 (13.44 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 96 logobjective: -1870.4175585814455 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.00018052717762183325 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 2 ℓH: -1871.0772135533837                         Computing... 96%|████████████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:00 (13.55 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 97 logobjective: -1867.8453981519228 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 3.6265917673757394e-8 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1868.3249995891101                         Computing... 98%|████████████████████████▍| ETA: 0:00:00 (13.51 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1097 Avgℓobjective: -1869.226605128313 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.20073024377351797 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 99%|████████████████████████▊| ETA: 0:00:00 (13.43 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1098 Avgℓobjective: -1869.8832186855643 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.6339435470397526 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:10 (13.44 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1099 Avgℓobjective: -1869.539050327771 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.1127678433595165 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -7846.944, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1874.66. NUTS sampler had 36 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.789 (3) number of steps and depth of 0.867 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 31, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 5, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -6518.007, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1867.738. NUTS sampler had 49 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.878 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.811 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 44, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 5, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -7578.523, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1868.006. NUTS sampler had 35 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.7 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.867 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 29, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 6, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -8055.524, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1868.884. NUTS sampler had 40 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.978 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.922 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 35, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 5, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -7442.41, variance: 8.465671904e6 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1871.568, variance: 13.682 Total number of jittering steps: 250. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.259, 0.224, 0.519, 0.78, 0.96]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 2: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -10481.549, variance: 8.374926772e7 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1869.167, variance: 0.107 Total number of jittering steps: 164. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.025, 0.474, 0.823, 0.919, 0.982]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 8.325]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 3: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -10996.405, variance: 4.5660265675e7 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1869.812, variance: 1.433 Total number of jittering steps: 241. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.45, 0.088, 0.436, 0.784, 0.984]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 4: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -11116.354, variance: 2.3209693484e7 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1869.539, variance: 0.489 Total number of jittering steps: 233. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.65, 0.062, 0.401, 0.722, 0.982]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.207 │ 0.383 │ 0.023 │ -0.535 │ 0.023 │ 0.139 │ 0.445 │ 1.04 │ 276.987 │ 284.598 │ 1.052 │ │ σ │ 11.398 │ 13.881 │ 0.777 │ 2.115 │ 9.785 │ 10.05 │ 10.319 │ 22.392 │ 162.046 │ 68.698 │ 1.07 │ └───┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Computing... 0%| | ETA: 0:03:36 ( 0.27 s/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1100 Avgℓobjective: -1509.8853696449178 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.17911530900075964 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 4%|█▏ | ETA: 0:00:14 (18.65 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 105 logobjective: -807.2396722877543 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.6666666666666666 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -1301.5738708402432                         Computing... 8%|██ | ETA: 0:00:11 (14.72 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 109 logobjective: -786.7382989195796 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 9.232869336888419e-83 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -789.4418116226514                         Computing... 10%|██▌ | ETA: 0:00:10 (13.26 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1109 Avgℓobjective: -797.5850939989656 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9681513289474668 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 15%|███▊ | ETA: 0:00:06 ( 9.55 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1115 Avgℓobjective: -785.8062196674144 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.40400682726405485 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 22%|█████▋ | ETA: 0:00:04 ( 7.08 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1122 Avgℓobjective: -786.0781901021863 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.009461071081846406 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 29%|███████▎ | ETA: 0:00:03 ( 5.96 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 129 logobjective: -785.6023929257387 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.012523676721489786 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -786.3613635047942                         Computing... 36%|█████████ | ETA: 0:00:03 ( 5.14 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1135 Avgℓobjective: -785.5291071553207 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.1205045264581487 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 43%|██████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:02 ( 4.61 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1142 Avgℓobjective: -785.8800402551001 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8090205542196741 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 52%|█████████████▏ | ETA: 0:00:02 ( 4.02 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1152 Avgℓobjective: -786.3436046536668 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.15356967165720173 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 63%|███████████████▉ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 3.53 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 164 logobjective: -786.474946815604 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.5 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 2 ℓH: -788.4224745357361                         Computing... 84%|█████████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 2.81 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 185 logobjective: -785.3489157107946 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.23686895512705675 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -786.2489845475919                         Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:01 ( 2.50 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1199 Avgℓobjective: -786.8538284803458 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.11264016016373107 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -785.929, Avg. final ℓposterior: -785.357. NUTS sampler had 31 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.722 (3) number of steps and depth of 0.978 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 24, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 7, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -786.129, Avg. final ℓposterior: -785.642. NUTS sampler had 45 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.978 (1) number of steps and depth of 1.011 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 41, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 4, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -786.074, Avg. final ℓposterior: -786.863. NUTS sampler had 37 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.744 (3) number of steps and depth of 0.978 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 29, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 8, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -785.506, Avg. final ℓposterior: -785.293. NUTS sampler had 33 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.756 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.989 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 28, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 5, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -785.698, variance: 0.082 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -786.458, variance: 2.396 Total number of jittering steps: 162. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.668, 0.2, 0.721, 0.873, 0.976]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 5.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 2: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -826.919, variance: 6564.081 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -786.309, variance: 0.253 Total number of jittering steps: 160. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.466, 0.094, 0.461, 0.664, 0.958]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 6.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 3: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -790.467, variance: 63.343 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -786.736, variance: 0.915 Total number of jittering steps: 136. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.064, 0.316, 0.626, 0.839, 0.973]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 3.775]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 4: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -789.815, variance: 51.717 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -786.854, variance: 1.603 Total number of jittering steps: 248. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.7, 0.261, 0.659, 0.845, 0.995]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.022 │ 0.041 │ 0.004 │ -0.054 │ -0.009 │ 0.025 │ 0.052 │ 0.096 │ 137.072 │ 218.155 │ 1.034 │ │ σ │ 1.01 │ 0.038 │ 0.002 │ 0.954 │ 0.987 │ 1.01 │ 1.03 │ 1.064 │ 253.267 │ 269.494 │ 1.022 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Computing... 0%|▏ | ETA: 0:02:29 ( 0.37 s/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 1 logobjective: -1867.8799667514077 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.6685371079271348e-8 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -1873.4853441153584                         Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:00 ( 2.27 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 100 logobjective: -2039.9836844750396 Temperature: 0.5460980646457352 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9999641587802587 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 47 ℓH: -2040.1998186426165 Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1885.88, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2042.697. NUTS sampler had 31 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 10.844 (79) number of steps and depth of 1.956 (6). Divergences in: Warmup: 31, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1886.278, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2042.279. NUTS sampler had 18 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.322 (95) number of steps and depth of 2.189 (6). Divergences in: Warmup: 18, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1886.014, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2041.308. NUTS sampler had 24 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 13.889 (31) number of steps and depth of 2.067 (5). Divergences in: Warmup: 24, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1885.992, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2039.984. NUTS sampler had 29 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 9.433 (47) number of steps and depth of 1.956 (5). Divergences in: Warmup: 29, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.345 │ 0.299 │ 0.081 │ -0.192 │ 0.132 │ 0.364 │ 0.528 │ 0.92 │ 12.176 │ 64.958 │ 1.275 │ │ σ │ 9.961 │ 0.311 │ 0.076 │ 9.391 │ 9.815 │ 9.986 │ 10.161 │ 10.695 │ 21.588 │ 7.652 │ 1.16 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Computing... 0%|▏ | ETA: 0:01:28 ( 0.22 s/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 101 logobjective: -2041.5698939547347 Temperature: 0.5465413282544795 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9998793085300923 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 63 ℓH: -2042.1989690423218                         Computing... 22%|█████▌ | ETA: 0:00:02 ( 6.26 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 123 logobjective: -2079.968121490363 Temperature: 0.556184355379786 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9996295027334002 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 7 ℓH: -2080.4256560046683                         Computing... 59%|██████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 2.78 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 160 logobjective: -2137.378221729425 Temperature: 0.5719419597632024 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9998960975303584 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 63 ℓH: -2138.4990191832203                         Computing... 96%|███████████████████████▉ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 2.01 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 196 logobjective: -2193.550084372659 Temperature: 0.5867365152693156 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9996796984429278 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 15 ℓH: -2193.949267694307                         Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:00 ( 1.94 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 200 logobjective: -2197.9632049212732 Temperature: 0.5883484625830675 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9987745929088764 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 23 ℓH: -2198.793552885693 Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2059.163, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2198.562. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 21.533 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.811 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2058.856, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2199.206. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 24.733 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.889 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2058.665, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2198.222. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 29.111 (31) number of steps and depth of 4.311 (5). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2058.072, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2197.963. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.378 (23) number of steps and depth of 3.556 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.284 │ 0.471 │ 0.05 │ -0.558 │ -0.053 │ 0.263 │ 0.63 │ 1.149 │ 90.066 │ 136.72 │ 1.031 │ │ σ │ 10.036 │ 0.266 │ 0.014 │ 9.544 │ 9.856 │ 10.04 │ 10.217 │ 10.509 │ 349.912 │ 250.247 │ 1.01 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Computing... 0%|▏ | ETA: 0:01:35 ( 0.24 s/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1000 Avgℓobjective: -1869.503405469174 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8189404950060135 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 42%|██████████▋ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 3.76 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1042 Avgℓobjective: -1944.5439531730904 Temperature: 0.5201025509740036 ESS: 3.9999983793636553 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.4638445039545074 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 68%|█████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 2.93 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1068 Avgℓobjective: -1989.7218074176387 Temperature: 0.5321398612774493 ESS: 3.999996618601186 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.6526528450434089 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:00 ( 2.26 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1099 Avgℓobjective: -2042.4281388291656 Temperature: 0.5460980646457352 ESS: 3.9999997184953693 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9349032820141372 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1887.351, variance: 0.263 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -2042.428, variance: 0.767 Total number of jittering steps: 119. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.602, 0.059, 0.464, 0.705, 0.95]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 4.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.292 │ 0.366 │ 0.035 │ -0.393 │ 0.008 │ 0.303 │ 0.568 │ 0.987 │ 113.056 │ 157.256 │ 1.018 │ │ σ │ 10.051 │ 0.294 │ 0.018 │ 9.448 │ 9.873 │ 10.051 │ 10.235 │ 10.64 │ 279.117 │ 250.55 │ 1.006 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Computing... 75%|██████████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 0.34 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1175 Avgℓobjective: -920.4979397489635 Temperature: 0.5785816018296004 ESS: 3.999999839405954 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.17515801646809262 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:00 ( 0.49 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1199 Avgℓobjective: -935.3726868166628 Temperature: 0.5883484625830675 ESS: 3.999997596033752 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.37297272738219245 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -876.833, variance: 1.277 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -935.373, variance: 0.184 Total number of jittering steps: 205. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.629, 0.088, 0.4, 0.709, 0.916]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 9.775]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ -0.038 │ 0.041 │ 0.003 │ -0.113 │ -0.07 │ -0.038 │ -0.011 │ 0.042 │ 185.338 │ 215.528 │ 1.009 │ │ σ │ 1.026 │ 0.025 │ 0.002 │ 0.982 │ 1.009 │ 1.025 │ 1.038 │ 1.086 │ 132.816 │ 133.438 │ 1.055 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Computing... 0%| | ETA: 0:05:49 ( 0.44 s/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1000 Avgℓobjective: -24442.58776959764 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: NaN generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 17%|████▎ | ETA: 0:00:07 (10.11 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 18 logobjective: -2010.316868955194 Temperature: 0.5082362469666039 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.0 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -2011.0163559875093                         Computing... 20%|█████▏ | ETA: 0:00:09 (14.05 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1020 Avgℓobjective: -1905.6486355282275 Temperature: 0.5096755545974264 ESS: 3.9999956392240485 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.722901171981496 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 22%|█████▍ | ETA: 0:00:09 (14.54 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1021 Avgℓobjective: -1907.4884959126562 Temperature: 0.5101543870636398 ESS: 3.999999622431641 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.4288693629302932 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 22%|█████▌ | ETA: 0:00:09 (14.92 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1021 Avgℓobjective: -1935.0889137664394 Temperature: 0.5101543870636398 ESS: 3.9931555706879376 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8311895307798882 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 23%|█████▊ | ETA: 0:00:10 (16.09 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1023 Avgℓobjective: -1911.6997113715029 Temperature: 0.511110649623226 ESS: 3.999998825344439 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.1683092314868681 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 24%|██████ | ETA: 0:00:10 (16.44 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1023 Avgℓobjective: -1917.6001994150154 Temperature: 0.511110649623226 ESS: 3.995084446065361 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.18821377906440406 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 25%|██████▏ | ETA: 0:00:10 (16.62 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 25 logobjective: -1911.8394932916494 Temperature: 0.5115880806294534 accepted: true acceptancerate: 5.3736719532163105e-18 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -1913.1114094526524                         Computing... 25%|██████▎ | ETA: 0:00:10 (17.09 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1025 Avgℓobjective: -1915.3636309363023 Temperature: 0.5120650453944637 ESS: 3.9999939257261095 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8283664151898531 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 26%|██████▍ | ETA: 0:00:10 (17.34 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 26 logobjective: -1913.3673389735493 Temperature: 0.5120650453944637 accepted: true acceptancerate: 3.984442318611149e-10 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1913.3799852267769                         Computing... 26%|██████▋ | ETA: 0:00:10 (17.50 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 27 logobjective: -1915.2910339350758 Temperature: 0.5125415443735707 accepted: true acceptancerate: 5.797139105793978e-43 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1916.5183230056152                         Computing... 27%|██████▊ | ETA: 0:00:10 (17.68 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 27 logobjective: -1915.6054176682267 Temperature: 0.5125415443735707 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.029488561294508015 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -1917.0798170902522                         Computing... 27%|██████▉ | ETA: 0:00:11 (18.17 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 28 logobjective: -1916.4412604771974 Temperature: 0.5130175780216433 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.16278045103942237 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 5 ℓH: -1917.6002588904976                         Computing... 28%|███████ | ETA: 0:00:11 (18.55 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1027 Avgℓobjective: -1918.2846496203215 Temperature: 0.5130175780216433 ESS: 3.9999963532435365 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.35916861886259865 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 28%|███████▏ | ETA: 0:00:11 (18.75 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 29 logobjective: -1918.2175204110404 Temperature: 0.5134931467931065 accepted: true acceptancerate: 6.61651624610616e-34 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1919.6074974461585                         Computing... 29%|███████▎ | ETA: 0:00:11 (19.11 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1028 Avgℓobjective: -1943.7432435078385 Temperature: 0.5134931467931065 ESS: 3.9943083560517785 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.2315280337329902 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 31%|███████▊ | ETA: 0:00:10 (19.00 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1031 Avgℓobjective: -1926.7685453929125 Temperature: 0.514917068385434 ESS: 3.999998131365582 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.18556605193862052 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 32%|████████ | ETA: 0:00:10 (19.07 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1031 Avgℓobjective: -1925.6435088367934 Temperature: 0.514917068385434 ESS: 3.9999994151387175 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.6496700098123137 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 33%|████████▏ | ETA: 0:00:10 (19.30 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 33 logobjective: -2021.8784623254546 Temperature: 0.5153907821858389 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.0 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -2022.1325852434638                         Computing... 33%|████████▍ | ETA: 0:00:10 (19.34 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 34 logobjective: -1927.2098317169307 Temperature: 0.5158640333751106 accepted: true acceptancerate: 2.6183854140809078e-6 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1928.4533580427208                         Computing... 34%|████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:10 (19.44 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1034 Avgℓobjective: -1930.5559874854298 Temperature: 0.5163368224050177 ESS: 3.9999989955072444 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.03671984835218267 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 38%|█████████▋ | ETA: 0:00:09 (18.51 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1038 Avgℓobjective: -1938.0988349080762 Temperature: 0.5182233659509425 ESS: 3.9999980285141827 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.5449457526511501 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 40%|██████████▏ | ETA: 0:00:09 (18.06 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 41 logobjective: -1939.6921064117407 Temperature: 0.5191638764813176 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.2113913804605636e-5 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -1940.881804501795                         Computing... 47%|███████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:07 (15.85 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1046 Avgℓobjective: -1952.7057633524473 Temperature: 0.5219744061763523 ESS: 3.999999581516819 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8791690189296367 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 52%|█████████████▏ | ETA: 0:00:05 (14.44 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1052 Avgℓobjective: -1962.6214178054688 Temperature: 0.5247685080765931 ESS: 3.9999967441375883 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.031540128056594785 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 58%|██████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:05 (13.42 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1057 Avgℓobjective: -1970.9680411589131 Temperature: 0.5270844466088458 ESS: 3.9999999383679965 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.7774992415030177 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 62%|███████████████▋ | ETA: 0:00:04 (12.62 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1062 Avgℓobjective: -1979.9043836278643 Temperature: 0.5293890989124368 ESS: 3.9999988295302855 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.0802634824910956 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 68%|████████████████▉ | ETA: 0:00:03 (11.90 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1067 Avgℓobjective: -1987.699444333491 Temperature: 0.5316825199883755 ESS: 3.9999978073485045 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.09489861035099884 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 72%|██████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:03 (11.39 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1071 Avgℓobjective: -1994.6875126578038 Temperature: 0.5335092071547478 ESS: 3.9999994724972407 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.21758568145871238 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 76%|██████████████████▉ | ETA: 0:00:02 (10.98 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 76 logobjective: -2001.8930071605685 Temperature: 0.535328769269961 accepted: true acceptancerate: 4.704447746707019e-12 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -2003.3158837402798                         Computing... 79%|███████████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:02 (10.65 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1079 Avgℓobjective: -2009.2208925571779 Temperature: 0.5371412341255027 ESS: 3.999993719802505 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.32745635858272876 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 82%|████████████████████▋ | ETA: 0:00:01 (10.42 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1082 Avgℓobjective: -2013.1225508325824 Temperature: 0.5384959418476701 ESS: 3.9999998854833296 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.5124593927013603 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 86%|█████████████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:01 (10.13 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 87 logobjective: -2020.8525612691976 Temperature: 0.5402960530462416 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.6292677539153377e-7 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -2021.416485256027                         Computing... 90%|██████████████████████▍ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 9.93 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 90 logobjective: -2024.4453549914122 Temperature: 0.5416415271579234 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.0006578086557722301 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -2025.6313012301835                         Computing... 94%|███████████████████████▍ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 9.67 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1093 Avgℓobjective: -2032.1296918493008 Temperature: 0.5434293689013447 ESS: 3.999988344636387 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.44016468039226253 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 97%|████████████████████████▎| ETA: 0:00:00 ( 9.44 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 98 logobjective: -2036.9025257446642 Temperature: 0.5452102371114096 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.0012801103120151458 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -2038.8996904528485                         Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:07 ( 9.29 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1099 Avgℓobjective: -2041.8181344876011 Temperature: 0.5460980646457352 ESS: 3.99999924534032 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.1908911146288162 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -7395.803, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2039.894. NUTS sampler had 37 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.922 (3) number of steps and depth of 0.944 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 33, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 4, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -7723.316, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2040.353. NUTS sampler had 35 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.989 (3) number of steps and depth of 1.0 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 29, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 6, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -3507.321, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2040.776. NUTS sampler had 34 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.911 (3) number of steps and depth of 0.9 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 33, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 1, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -4629.537, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2041.198. NUTS sampler had 46 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 2.378 (3) number of steps and depth of 0.967 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 40, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 6, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -6717.741, variance: 795609.062 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -2043.084, variance: 2.291 Total number of jittering steps: 167. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.166, 0.167, 0.528, 0.785, 0.958]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 6.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [2.433, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 2: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -7426.129, variance: 28695.798 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -2041.697, variance: 0.093 Total number of jittering steps: 211. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.52, 0.113, 0.402, 0.692, 0.913]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.007, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 3: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -3667.92, variance: 675306.361 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -2041.783, variance: 0.407 Total number of jittering steps: 200. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.647, 0.074, 0.322, 0.76, 0.98]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.865, 3.994, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 4: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -4502.613, variance: 63227.919 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -2041.818, variance: 0.299 Total number of jittering steps: 173. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.182, 0.18, 0.635, 0.836, 0.975]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 5.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.275, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.232 │ 0.387 │ 0.033 │ -0.451 │ -0.041 │ 0.178 │ 0.513 │ 0.959 │ 167.71 │ 270.825 │ 1.067 │ │ σ │ 9.732 │ 2.073 │ 0.223 │ 3.277 │ 9.76 │ 9.969 │ 10.214 │ 11.012 │ 131.134 │ 70.416 │ 1.027 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Computing... 0%| | ETA: 0:03:37 ( 0.27 s/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1100 Avgℓobjective: -1818.2584870891924 Temperature: 0.5465413282544795 ESS: 3.9999954645671085 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.5679220848169673 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 13%|███▎ | ETA: 0:00:05 ( 7.37 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1112 Avgℓobjective: -848.6863394466152 Temperature: 0.551826847945094 ESS: 3.999977363791233 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.48905963439233907 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 23%|█████▊ | ETA: 0:00:03 ( 4.70 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1122 Avgℓobjective: -855.083577036381 Temperature: 0.556184355379786 ESS: 3.999999234360038 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.005115299939000818 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 34%|████████▍ | ETA: 0:00:02 ( 3.57 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1133 Avgℓobjective: -862.0052187341742 Temperature: 0.5609286952600879 ESS: 3.9999994261482885 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.7650207963427098 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 44%|███████████ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 2.99 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1144 Avgℓobjective: -869.4693496705 Temperature: 0.5656223186747298 ESS: 3.9999996072867954 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.7635037021866227 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 56%|██████████████ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 2.59 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1155 Avgℓobjective: -876.5513110150231 Temperature: 0.5702657677770886 ESS: 3.9999994883138217 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.2755903929265187 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 69%|█████████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 2.28 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1169 Avgℓobjective: -885.4838036387976 Temperature: 0.5761038915617922 ESS: 3.999999896742529 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.20553733137549254 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 83%|████████████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 2.05 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1183 Avgℓobjective: -894.2896068943729 Temperature: 0.5818627019319021 ESS: 3.9999987430844857 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.19836151930050983 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 98%|████████████████████████▍| ETA: 0:00:00 ( 1.88 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1197 Avgℓobjective: -903.2160589713915 Temperature: 0.5875432763941588 ESS: 3.999998986379123 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.075326494467229 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:01 ( 1.86 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1199 Avgℓobjective: -904.321115859995 Temperature: 0.5883484625830675 ESS: 3.999999959324311 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.3378919368840017 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -846.192, Avg. final ℓposterior: -903.829. NUTS sampler had 37 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.722 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.989 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 31, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 6, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -847.511, Avg. final ℓposterior: -903.438. NUTS sampler had 33 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 2.0 (3) number of steps and depth of 1.022 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 27, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 6, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -855.383, Avg. final ℓposterior: -905.065. NUTS sampler had 30 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.744 (3) number of steps and depth of 1.0 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 28, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 2, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -846.031, Avg. final ℓposterior: -903.689. NUTS sampler had 34 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.767 (1) number of steps and depth of 1.011 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 29, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 5, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -847.229, variance: 0.434 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -904.013, variance: 0.222 Total number of jittering steps: 99. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.561, 0.121, 0.356, 0.657, 0.926]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 2: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -852.251, variance: 41.795 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -903.866, variance: 0.152 Total number of jittering steps: 218. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.447, 0.136, 0.602, 0.79, 0.955]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 9.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 3: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -850.26, variance: 23.03 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -904.467, variance: 0.436 Total number of jittering steps: 172. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.507, 0.075, 0.385, 0.708, 0.978]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 4: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -859.355, variance: 639.715 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -904.321, variance: 0.22 Total number of jittering steps: 91. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.656, -0.007, 0.292, 0.623, 0.849]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ -0.027 │ 0.045 │ 0.002 │ -0.108 │ -0.051 │ -0.025 │ 0.003 │ 0.05 │ 350.89 │ 330.509 │ 1.01 │ │ σ │ 0.977 │ 0.026 │ 0.001 │ 0.928 │ 0.959 │ 0.975 │ 0.994 │ 1.029 │ 307.029 │ 198.818 │ 1.016 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -385.005, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2254.977. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 14.612 (3) number of steps and depth of 3.298 (2). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -383.963, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2253.377. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 16.5 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.404 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -384.854, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2255.5. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 15.664 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.382 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -385.661, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2253.005. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 15.288 (19) number of steps and depth of 3.348 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.198 │ 0.54 │ 0.027 │ -0.948 │ -0.14 │ 0.197 │ 0.559 │ 1.282 │ 412.063 │ 399.423 │ 1.021 │ │ σ │ 10.304 │ 0.502 │ 0.051 │ 9.058 │ 10.052 │ 10.337 │ 10.61 │ 11.242 │ 116.885 │ 84.929 │ 1.046 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 400. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 400 Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2256.69, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.963. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 14.435 (7) number of steps and depth of 3.308 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2256.345, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3736.192. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 15.41 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.438 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2257.237, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3736.985. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 14.955 (7) number of steps and depth of 3.378 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2256.362, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.706. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 16.16 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.482 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.146 │ 0.352 │ 0.017 │ -0.566 │ -0.093 │ 0.156 │ 0.39 │ 0.794 │ 430.395 │ 481.101 │ 1.028 │ │ σ │ 10.088 │ 0.282 │ 0.044 │ 9.565 │ 9.891 │ 10.073 │ 10.268 │ 10.669 │ 40.725 │ 812.987 │ 1.067 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -385.819, variance: 0.496 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -2256.905, variance: 5.43 Total number of jittering steps: 535. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.514, 0.03, 0.353, 0.653, 0.941]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.913, 3.989, 3.995, 3.998, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.202 │ 0.537 │ 0.056 │ -0.929 │ -0.136 │ 0.236 │ 0.566 │ 1.167 │ 97.92 │ 475.876 │ 1.055 │ │ σ │ 10.309 │ 0.546 │ 0.062 │ 9.004 │ 10.022 │ 10.337 │ 10.664 │ 11.31 │ 89.706 │ 79.194 │ 1.029 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1934.629, variance: 866.938 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1555.514, variance: 0.342 Total number of jittering steps: 654. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.724, 0.055, 0.397, 0.678, 0.949]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 4.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.967, 3.995, 3.998, 3.999, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ -0.022 │ 0.056 │ 0.002 │ -0.093 │ -0.048 │ -0.025 │ -0.002 │ 0.048 │ 650.201 │ 674.706 │ 1.004 │ │ σ │ 1.04 │ 0.629 │ 0.027 │ 0.942 │ 0.97 │ 0.987 │ 1.004 │ 1.041 │ 522.34 │ 487.698 │ 1.009 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel SMC2Kernel Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 97.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -158.397, variance: 0.837 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -973.34, variance: 3.41 Total number of jittering steps: 93. Rejuvenations on average every 33.333 step, every 20.833 steps in first half, every 83.333 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.31, 0.058, 0.163, 0.264, 0.487]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [2.0, 3.5, 6.0, 9.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [2.974, 3.332, 3.567, 3.752, 3.99] for 4 chains. ┌────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ1 │ -0.229 │ 0.994 │ 0.184 │ -2.939 │ -0.504 │ -0.068 │ 0.335 │ 1.007 │ 24.796 │ 27.678 │ 1.236 │ │ μ2 │ 1.948 │ 0.062 │ 0.007 │ 1.805 │ 1.916 │ 1.963 │ 1.985 │ 2.054 │ 66.773 │ 44.836 │ 1.09 │ │ σ1 │ 2.026 │ 0.539 │ 0.108 │ 1.402 │ 1.708 │ 1.908 │ 2.243 │ 3.933 │ 23.353 │ 65.855 │ 1.15 │ │ σ2 │ 0.964 │ 0.045 │ 0.007 │ 0.891 │ 0.933 │ 0.959 │ 1.002 │ 1.052 │ 43.503 │ 59.898 │ 1.1 │ │ p1 │ 0.15 │ 0.05 │ 0.016 │ 0.038 │ 0.126 │ 0.155 │ 0.183 │ 0.243 │ 9.376 │ NaN │ 1.361 │ │ p2 │ 0.85 │ 0.05 │ 0.016 │ 0.757 │ 0.817 │ 0.845 │ 0.874 │ 0.962 │ 9.376 │ 9.228 │ 1.361 │ └────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel SMC2Kernel Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 98.4%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -976.795, variance: 3.647 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1588.333, variance: 5.24 Total number of jittering steps: 67. Rejuvenations on average every 62.5 step, every 41.667 steps in first half, every 125.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [0.05, 0.32, 0.583, 0.698, 0.74]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [2.525, 8.75, 10.0, 10.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.038, 3.487, 3.748, 3.911, 3.992] for 4 chains. ┌────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ1 │ -0.04 │ 0.138 │ 0.023 │ -0.259 │ -0.134 │ -0.026 │ 0.035 │ 0.369 │ 20.343 │ 13.336 │ 1.449 │ │ μ2 │ 0.688 │ 0.611 │ 0.212 │ -0.127 │ 0.101 │ 0.633 │ 1.155 │ 1.985 │ 8.938 │ 12.904 │ 1.379 │ │ σ1 │ 1.046 │ 0.183 │ 0.022 │ 0.904 │ 0.982 │ 1.015 │ 1.036 │ 1.843 │ 12.852 │ 11.699 │ 1.798 │ │ σ2 │ 0.898 │ 0.224 │ 0.081 │ 0.473 │ 0.734 │ 0.97 │ 1.059 │ 1.163 │ 6.927 │ 13.206 │ 1.603 │ │ p1 │ 0.837 │ 0.185 │ 0.043 │ 0.167 │ 0.805 │ 0.876 │ 0.944 │ 0.993 │ 8.197 │ NaN │ 1.427 │ │ p2 │ 0.163 │ 0.185 │ 0.043 │ 0.007 │ 0.056 │ 0.124 │ 0.195 │ 0.833 │ 8.197 │ 10.827 │ 1.427 │ └────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -111.554, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2253.13. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 16.196 (19) number of steps and depth of 3.386 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -111.177, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2255.04. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 16.956 (3) number of steps and depth of 3.482 (2). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -110.645, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2254.445. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.352 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.448 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -110.806, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2253.711. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 15.84 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.33 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.197 │ 0.532 │ 0.034 │ -0.867 │ -0.13 │ 0.211 │ 0.54 │ 1.237 │ 230.761 │ 521.778 │ 1.024 │ │ σ │ 10.31 │ 0.539 │ 0.056 │ 8.92 │ 10.056 │ 10.325 │ 10.628 │ 11.362 │ 110.215 │ 91.772 │ 1.056 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 400. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 400 Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -652.182, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3736.697. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 16.04 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.445 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -653.935, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.798. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.64 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.59 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -652.208, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.404. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 16.09 (27) number of steps and depth of 3.422 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -652.868, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3736.062. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 14.46 (3) number of steps and depth of 3.318 (2). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.148 │ 0.361 │ 0.021 │ -0.583 │ -0.088 │ 0.14 │ 0.373 │ 0.851 │ 268.173 │ 317.104 │ 1.027 │ │ σ │ 10.091 │ 0.279 │ 0.042 │ 9.595 │ 9.901 │ 10.079 │ 10.271 │ 10.661 │ 44.417 │ 873.884 │ 1.067 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -111.959, variance: 0.406 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -2256.202, variance: 0.06 Total number of jittering steps: 532. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.559, 0.01, 0.313, 0.663, 0.938]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.86, 3.988, 3.995, 3.998, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.242 │ 0.555 │ 0.039 │ -0.908 │ -0.09 │ 0.254 │ 0.596 │ 1.266 │ 208.151 │ 391.628 │ 1.032 │ │ σ │ 10.281 │ 0.547 │ 0.062 │ 8.954 │ 10.003 │ 10.312 │ 10.631 │ 11.212 │ 92.818 │ 75.11 │ 1.056 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -545.239, variance: 656.778 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1530.359, variance: 0.014 Total number of jittering steps: 614. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.678, 0.042, 0.365, 0.684, 0.938]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.543, 3.995, 3.998, 3.999, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.025 │ 0.08 │ 0.004 │ -0.052 │ -0.006 │ 0.019 │ 0.041 │ 0.1 │ 203.284 │ 180.228 │ 1.027 │ │ σ │ 1.071 │ 0.756 │ 0.055 │ 0.928 │ 0.957 │ 0.972 │ 0.988 │ 1.877 │ 253.14 │ 83.431 │ 1.025 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel SMC2Kernel Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 97.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -46.866, variance: 0.383 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -971.691, variance: 5.522 Total number of jittering steps: 101. Rejuvenations on average every 33.333 step, every 20.833 steps in first half, every 83.333 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.396, 0.026, 0.172, 0.437, 0.595]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 4.0, 6.0, 10.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [2.99, 3.339, 3.6, 3.842, 3.99] for 4 chains. ┌────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ1 │ -0.276 │ 0.929 │ 0.133 │ -2.391 │ -0.723 │ -0.076 │ 0.291 │ 1.391 │ 46.368 │ 49.284 │ 1.063 │ │ μ2 │ 1.946 │ 0.082 │ 0.013 │ 1.785 │ 1.895 │ 1.94 │ 2.017 │ 2.099 │ 43.619 │ 42.511 │ 1.059 │ │ σ1 │ 2.013 │ 0.758 │ 0.134 │ 1.034 │ 1.7 │ 1.888 │ 2.153 │ 4.057 │ 30.026 │ 30.566 │ 1.115 │ │ σ2 │ 0.972 │ 0.063 │ 0.012 │ 0.882 │ 0.923 │ 0.965 │ 1.02 │ 1.086 │ 25.9 │ 34.29 │ 1.119 │ │ p1 │ 0.148 │ 0.063 │ 0.014 │ 0.048 │ 0.091 │ 0.139 │ 0.201 │ 0.272 │ 24.509 │ 25.197 │ 1.161 │ │ p2 │ 0.852 │ 0.063 │ 0.014 │ 0.728 │ 0.799 │ 0.861 │ 0.909 │ 0.952 │ 24.509 │ 39.185 │ 1.161 │ └────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel SMC2Kernel Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 98.2%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -281.552, variance: 0.438 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1578.529, variance: 1.952 Total number of jittering steps: 70. Rejuvenations on average every 55.556 step, every 41.667 steps in first half, every 83.333 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.161, 0.202, 0.344, 0.425, 0.791]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [2.2, 5.0, 10.0, 10.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.033, 3.267, 3.581, 3.859, 3.995] for 4 chains. ┌────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ1 │ -0.058 │ 0.084 │ 0.019 │ -0.143 │ -0.099 │ -0.052 │ -0.01 │ 0.055 │ 13.168 │ 18.354 │ 1.394 │ │ μ2 │ 1.199 │ 0.732 │ 0.275 │ -0.678 │ 0.756 │ 1.434 │ 1.703 │ 2.114 │ 6.196 │ NaN │ 1.753 │ │ σ1 │ 0.989 │ 0.06 │ 0.013 │ 0.872 │ 0.967 │ 0.987 │ 1.008 │ 1.068 │ 13.691 │ 12.81 │ 1.254 │ │ σ2 │ 0.975 │ 0.244 │ 0.091 │ 0.566 │ 0.766 │ 0.953 │ 1.143 │ 1.562 │ 7.253 │ 11.401 │ 1.541 │ │ p1 │ 0.942 │ 0.068 │ 0.018 │ 0.765 │ 0.953 │ 0.959 │ 0.962 │ 0.981 │ 6.081 │ NaN │ 1.795 │ │ p2 │ 0.058 │ 0.068 │ 0.018 │ 0.019 │ 0.038 │ 0.041 │ 0.047 │ 0.235 │ 6.081 │ 12.2 │ 1.795 │ └────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -192.248, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1128.113. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 18.128 (7) number of steps and depth of 3.546 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -193.521, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1126.594. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 18.38 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.562 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -192.388, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1127.209. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 15.636 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.396 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -192.148, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1128.945. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 16.156 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.34 (5). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.116 │ 0.728 │ 0.045 │ -1.48 │ -0.355 │ 0.154 │ 0.613 │ 1.452 │ 272.601 │ 326.088 │ 1.014 │ │ σ │ 10.359 │ 0.649 │ 0.051 │ 8.834 │ 9.988 │ 10.371 │ 10.745 │ 11.661 │ 187.202 │ 114.004 │ 1.044 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 400. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 400 Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1128.874, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1869.78. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 16.515 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.46 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1128.211, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1868.504. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.62 (7) number of steps and depth of 3.52 (2). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1129.418, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1867.96. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 16.095 (7) number of steps and depth of 3.445 (2). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1128.518, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1867.711. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 16.55 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.458 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.155 │ 0.459 │ 0.023 │ -0.779 │ -0.144 │ 0.161 │ 0.464 │ 1.023 │ 385.972 │ 546.963 │ 1.009 │ │ σ │ 10.101 │ 0.374 │ 0.033 │ 9.404 │ 9.851 │ 10.089 │ 10.328 │ 10.894 │ 139.699 │ 760.24 │ 1.03 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -192.728, variance: 0.033 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1128.002, variance: 0.019 Total number of jittering steps: 545. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.612, 0.007, 0.368, 0.66, 0.946]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.939, 3.994, 3.997, 3.999, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.188 │ 0.753 │ 0.035 │ -1.284 │ -0.303 │ 0.205 │ 0.697 │ 1.654 │ 451.84 │ 372.169 │ 1.021 │ │ σ │ 10.334 │ 0.687 │ 0.052 │ 8.919 │ 9.916 │ 10.326 │ 10.778 │ 11.733 │ 180.815 │ 105.072 │ 1.048 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -964.991, variance: 529.236 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -778.669, variance: 2.252 Total number of jittering steps: 532. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.676, -0.1, 0.241, 0.577, 0.928]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.969, 3.997, 3.999, 3.999, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.039 │ 0.058 │ 0.002 │ -0.064 │ 0.003 │ 0.038 │ 0.073 │ 0.144 │ 762.784 │ 437.775 │ 1.011 │ │ σ │ 1.041 │ 0.566 │ 0.024 │ 0.926 │ 0.973 │ 0.996 │ 1.019 │ 1.07 │ 962.777 │ 846.919 │ 1.007 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel SMC2Kernel Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 98.6%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -79.334, variance: 1.08 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -487.479, variance: 0.194 Total number of jittering steps: 29. Rejuvenations on average every 71.429 step, every 62.5 steps in first half, every 83.333 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.158, -0.012, 0.097, 0.178, 0.201]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.5, 2.0, 6.5, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.024, 3.265, 3.617, 3.823, 3.995] for 4 chains. ┌────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ1 │ -0.666 │ 1.08 │ 0.342 │ -2.607 │ -1.332 │ -0.638 │ 0.326 │ 0.608 │ 8.11 │ 29.191 │ 1.448 │ │ μ2 │ 1.907 │ 0.092 │ 0.013 │ 1.685 │ 1.852 │ 1.906 │ 1.948 │ 2.134 │ 26.039 │ 32.516 │ 1.212 │ │ σ1 │ 2.136 │ 0.417 │ 0.109 │ 1.414 │ 1.926 │ 2.119 │ 2.498 │ 2.95 │ 15.442 │ 14.637 │ 1.231 │ │ σ2 │ 1.016 │ 0.086 │ 0.023 │ 0.905 │ 0.952 │ 1.025 │ 1.067 │ 1.244 │ 17.035 │ 11.874 │ 1.192 │ │ p1 │ 0.118 │ 0.037 │ 0.008 │ 0.053 │ 0.094 │ 0.114 │ 0.132 │ 0.247 │ 19.499 │ 31.581 │ 1.192 │ │ p2 │ 0.882 │ 0.037 │ 0.008 │ 0.753 │ 0.868 │ 0.886 │ 0.906 │ 0.947 │ 19.499 │ 25.806 │ 1.192 │ └────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel SMC2Kernel Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 98.6%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -489.112, variance: 0.174 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -800.599, variance: 2.613 Total number of jittering steps: 67. Rejuvenations on average every 71.429 step, every 83.333 steps in first half, every 62.5 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [0.059, 0.21, 0.918, 1.0, 1.0]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [7.45, 10.0, 10.0, 10.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.042, 3.404, 3.69, 3.848, 3.995] for 4 chains. ┌────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ1 │ 0.383 │ 0.429 │ 0.092 │ -0.844 │ 0.542 │ 0.542 │ 0.65 │ 0.65 │ 20.234 │ NaN │ 1.343 │ │ μ2 │ 1.767 │ 0.395 │ 0.088 │ 0.646 │ 1.869 │ 1.924 │ 1.982 │ 2.022 │ 12.987 │ 16.545 │ 1.45 │ │ σ1 │ 1.899 │ 0.513 │ 0.145 │ 0.694 │ 1.926 │ 1.926 │ 2.244 │ 2.498 │ 7.694 │ NaN │ 1.502 │ │ σ2 │ 1.02 │ 0.12 │ 0.024 │ 0.893 │ 0.969 │ 0.969 │ 1.018 │ 1.413 │ 16.383 │ 14.806 │ 1.19 │ │ p1 │ 0.188 │ 0.159 │ 0.035 │ 0.114 │ 0.114 │ 0.115 │ 0.135 │ 0.641 │ 14.488 │ 9.133 │ 1.299 │ │ p2 │ 0.812 │ 0.159 │ 0.035 │ 0.359 │ 0.865 │ 0.885 │ 0.886 │ 0.886 │ 14.488 │ NaN │ 1.299 │ └────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -191.333, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1562.288. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 19.42 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.632 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -192.868, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1561.636. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 16.64 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.45 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -192.077, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1561.935. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 18.3 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.526 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -191.831, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1561.22. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 15.776 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.362 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.214 │ 0.636 │ 0.037 │ -1.099 │ -0.201 │ 0.234 │ 0.654 │ 1.405 │ 310.113 │ 326.285 │ 1.024 │ │ σ │ 10.352 │ 0.634 │ 0.053 │ 8.943 │ 10.008 │ 10.369 │ 10.725 │ 11.56 │ 163.782 │ 81.695 │ 1.047 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 400. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 400 Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1564.751, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3105.715. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 15.365 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.428 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1564.086, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3105.611. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 13.825 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.33 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1564.898, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3106.965. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 15.05 (3) number of steps and depth of 3.395 (2). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1564.964, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3106.242. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 16.53 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.488 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.154 │ 0.43 │ 0.027 │ -0.734 │ -0.121 │ 0.156 │ 0.455 │ 0.975 │ 245.505 │ 341.537 │ 1.029 │ │ σ │ 10.112 │ 0.317 │ 0.042 │ 9.521 │ 9.895 │ 10.096 │ 10.31 │ 10.79 │ 59.29 │ 432.726 │ 1.052 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -193.948, variance: 3.229 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1563.965, variance: 2.596 Total number of jittering steps: 541. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.597, 0.01, 0.308, 0.647, 0.929]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.939, 3.994, 3.997, 3.999, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.213 │ 0.679 │ 0.03 │ -1.222 │ -0.205 │ 0.246 │ 0.635 │ 1.514 │ 486.119 │ 641.053 │ 1.023 │ │ σ │ 10.327 │ 0.633 │ 0.056 │ 8.831 │ 9.983 │ 10.33 │ 10.688 │ 11.558 │ 150.658 │ 85.65 │ 1.065 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1329.11, variance: 2933.727 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1369.527, variance: 0.778 Total number of jittering steps: 600. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.521, 0.016, 0.426, 0.721, 0.942]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.932, 3.995, 3.998, 3.999, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.013 │ 0.062 │ 0.002 │ -0.068 │ -0.014 │ 0.01 │ 0.036 │ 0.089 │ 681.102 │ 678.534 │ 1.012 │ │ σ │ 1.046 │ 0.483 │ 0.016 │ 0.953 │ 0.995 │ 1.016 │ 1.038 │ 1.087 │ 675.12 │ 400.395 │ 1.017 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel SMC2Kernel Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 97.6%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -80.934, variance: 6.564 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -673.384, variance: 6.336 Total number of jittering steps: 89. Rejuvenations on average every 41.667 step, every 35.714 steps in first half, every 50.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.181, -0.061, 0.109, 0.345, 0.514]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [3.275, 5.75, 7.5, 10.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.013, 3.436, 3.669, 3.839, 3.995] for 4 chains. ┌────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ1 │ -0.428 │ 1.242 │ 0.366 │ -2.149 │ -1.297 │ -0.606 │ 0.156 │ 1.97 │ 13.027 │ 25.556 │ 1.243 │ │ μ2 │ 1.94 │ 0.087 │ 0.013 │ 1.812 │ 1.883 │ 1.928 │ 1.991 │ 2.129 │ 37.121 │ 26.827 │ 1.271 │ │ σ1 │ 2.162 │ 1.953 │ 0.415 │ 1.01 │ 1.356 │ 1.967 │ 2.116 │ 9.414 │ 11.616 │ 27.296 │ 1.267 │ │ σ2 │ 0.978 │ 0.061 │ 0.014 │ 0.884 │ 0.934 │ 0.968 │ 1.026 │ 1.123 │ 18.767 │ 21.652 │ 1.155 │ │ p1 │ 0.12 │ 0.054 │ 0.014 │ 0.033 │ 0.077 │ 0.104 │ 0.163 │ 0.221 │ 20.063 │ 48.71 │ 1.2 │ │ p2 │ 0.88 │ 0.054 │ 0.014 │ 0.779 │ 0.837 │ 0.896 │ 0.923 │ 0.967 │ 20.063 │ 19.234 │ 1.2 │ └────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel SMC2Kernel Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 98.8%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -675.032, variance: 6.018 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1353.349, variance: 14.39 Total number of jittering steps: 53. Rejuvenations on average every 83.333 step, every 62.5 steps in first half, every 125.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [0.308, 0.362, 0.422, 0.607, 0.84]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [5.375, 8.5, 10.0, 10.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.059, 3.472, 3.753, 3.888, 3.993] for 4 chains. ┌────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ1 │ -0.117 │ 0.145 │ 0.037 │ -0.569 │ -0.141 │ -0.086 │ -0.057 │ 0.023 │ 7.05 │ NaN │ 1.582 │ │ μ2 │ 0.821 │ 0.443 │ 0.163 │ 0.156 │ 0.419 │ 0.781 │ 0.971 │ 1.861 │ 7.184 │ 9.645 │ 1.556 │ │ σ1 │ 0.993 │ 0.146 │ 0.012 │ 0.841 │ 0.953 │ 0.966 │ 0.998 │ 1.708 │ 12.574 │ 55.245 │ 1.246 │ │ σ2 │ 0.998 │ 0.261 │ 0.094 │ 0.708 │ 0.799 │ 0.933 │ 1.095 │ 1.72 │ 6.678 │ 9.645 │ 1.619 │ │ p1 │ 0.821 │ 0.161 │ 0.038 │ 0.11 │ 0.789 │ 0.856 │ 0.881 │ 0.965 │ 7.531 │ 19.874 │ 1.486 │ │ p2 │ 0.179 │ 0.161 │ 0.038 │ 0.035 │ 0.119 │ 0.144 │ 0.211 │ 0.89 │ 7.531 │ 8.144 │ 1.486 │ └────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ NaN │ 8.398 │ NaN │ └───┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ ┌───┬──────┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ NaN │ 8.398 │ NaN │ └───┴──────┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ σ │ 10.058 │ 0.161 │ 0.042 │ 9.729 │ 9.918 │ 10.084 │ 10.22 │ 10.274 │ 17.318 │ 134.17 │ 1.166 │ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.001 │ 0.0 │ 0.288 │ 0.289 │ 0.289 │ 0.29 │ 0.291 │ 17.318 │ 19.112 │ 1.166 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ NaN │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ NaN │ 8.398 │ NaN │ └───┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ ┌───┬──────┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ NaN │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ NaN │ 8.398 │ NaN │ └───┴──────┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ σ │ 9.988 │ 0.153 │ 0.033 │ 9.76 │ 9.908 │ 10.0 │ 10.059 │ 10.392 │ 21.79 │ 9.543 │ 1.181 │ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.001 │ 0.0 │ 0.288 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.291 │ 21.79 │ 36.474 │ 1.181 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 6.48 │ 8.398 │ 1.778 │ └───┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ ┌───┬──────┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 6.48 │ 8.398 │ 1.778 │ └───┴──────┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ σ │ 9.84 │ 0.362 │ 0.13 │ 9.349 │ 9.548 │ 9.86 │ 10.121 │ 10.362 │ 7.96 │ 5.914 │ 1.638 │ │ μ │ 0.291 │ 0.002 │ 0.001 │ 0.288 │ 0.289 │ 0.291 │ 0.292 │ 0.293 │ 8.594 │ 15.116 │ 1.46 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 6.069 │ 8.398 │ 1.931 │ └───┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ ┌───┬──────┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 6.069 │ 8.398 │ 1.931 │ └───┴──────┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ σ │ 10.01 │ 0.133 │ 0.024 │ 9.781 │ 9.946 │ 10.018 │ 10.093 │ 10.267 │ 24.825 │ 93.861 │ 1.135 │ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.001 │ 0.0 │ 0.288 │ 0.289 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.291 │ 24.52 │ 117.621 │ 1.136 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ NaN │ 8.398 │ NaN │ └───┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ ┌───┬──────┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ NaN │ 8.398 │ NaN │ └───┴──────┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ σ │ 10.077 │ 0.378 │ 0.118 │ 9.525 │ 9.815 │ 10.012 │ 10.435 │ 10.613 │ 9.988 │ 10.307 │ 1.359 │ │ μ │ 0.289 │ 0.002 │ 0.001 │ 0.287 │ 0.287 │ 0.29 │ 0.291 │ 0.292 │ 9.988 │ 8.184 │ 1.359 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ NaN │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ NaN │ 8.398 │ NaN │ └───┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ ┌───┬──────┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ NaN │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ NaN │ 8.398 │ NaN │ └───┴──────┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ σ │ 9.976 │ 0.223 │ 0.028 │ 9.618 │ 9.807 │ 9.993 │ 10.101 │ 10.384 │ 69.075 │ 40.589 │ 1.131 │ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.001 │ 0.0 │ 0.288 │ 0.289 │ 0.29 │ 0.291 │ 0.292 │ 69.077 │ 12.81 │ 1.128 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 6.587 │ 71.244 │ 1.746 │ └───┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ ┌───┬──────┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 6.587 │ 71.244 │ 1.746 │ └───┴──────┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ σ │ 10.037 │ 0.248 │ 0.031 │ 9.63 │ 9.838 │ 9.999 │ 10.268 │ 10.47 │ 65.922 │ 49.3 │ 1.087 │ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.001 │ 0.0 │ 0.287 │ 0.288 │ 0.29 │ 0.291 │ 0.292 │ 65.266 │ 61.34 │ 1.09 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 6.401 │ 8.398 │ 1.806 │ └───┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ ┌───┬──────┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 6.401 │ 8.398 │ 1.806 │ └───┴──────┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ σ │ 10.075 │ 0.271 │ 0.058 │ 9.605 │ 9.866 │ 10.142 │ 10.242 │ 10.584 │ 27.333 │ 13.755 │ 1.13 │ │ μ │ 0.289 │ 0.001 │ 0.0 │ 0.287 │ 0.289 │ 0.289 │ 0.291 │ 0.292 │ 27.338 │ 59.163 │ 1.13 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ Sampling starts... Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 10000. Sampling iterations set to 900 Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 10. Sampling iterations set to 10 Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Test Summary: | Pass Total Time All tests | 214 214 11m07.1s Testing Baytes tests passed Testing completed after 691.16s PkgEval succeeded after 751.99s