Package evaluation to test Baytes on Julia 1.11.8 (29b3528cce*) started at 2026-01-20T11:26:44.114 ################################################################################ # Set-up # Installing PkgEval dependencies (TestEnv)... Activating project at `~/.julia/environments/v1.11` Set-up completed after 8.7s ################################################################################ # Installation # Installing Baytes... Resolving package versions... Updating `~/.julia/environments/v1.11/Project.toml` [72ddfcfc] + Baytes v0.3.16 Updating `~/.julia/environments/v1.11/Manifest.toml` [621f4979] + AbstractFFTs v1.5.0 [7d9f7c33] + Accessors v0.1.43 [79e6a3ab] + Adapt v4.4.0 [66dad0bd] + AliasTables v1.1.3 [dce04be8] + ArgCheck v2.5.0 [72ddfcfc] + Baytes v0.3.16 [e5a8efeb] + BaytesCore v0.2.0 [12a76ff9] + BaytesDiff v0.3.1 [26b78818] + BaytesFilters v0.3.6 [8e6e46a0] + BaytesMCMC v0.3.4 [c78c806d] + BaytesOptim v0.1.9 [c4a8eb41] + BaytesPMCMC v0.3.3 [2428e3a5] + BaytesSMC v0.3.6 ⌅ [76274a88] + Bijectors v0.13.18 [082447d4] + ChainRules v1.72.6 [d360d2e6] + ChainRulesCore v1.26.0 [9e997f8a] + ChangesOfVariables v0.1.10 [38540f10] + CommonSolve v0.2.6 [34da2185] + Compat v4.18.1 [a33af91c] + CompositionsBase v0.1.2 [187b0558] + ConstructionBase v1.6.0 [a8cc5b0e] + Crayons v4.1.1 [9a962f9c] + DataAPI v1.16.0 [864edb3b] + DataStructures v0.19.3 [e2d170a0] + DataValueInterfaces v1.0.0 [31c24e10] + Distributions v0.25.123 [ffbed154] + DocStringExtensions v0.9.5 [fdbdab4c] + ElasticArrays v1.2.12 [5789e2e9] + FileIO v1.17.1 [1a297f60] + FillArrays v1.16.0 ⌅ [d9f16b24] + Functors v0.4.12 [46192b85] + GPUArraysCore v0.2.0 [34004b35] + HypergeometricFunctions v0.3.28 [3587e190] + InverseFunctions v0.1.17 [92d709cd] + IrrationalConstants v0.2.6 [82899510] + IteratorInterfaceExtensions v1.0.0 ⌅ [033835bb] + JLD2 v0.4.55 [692b3bcd] + JLLWrappers v1.7.1 [b964fa9f] + LaTeXStrings v1.4.0 [2ab3a3ac] + LogExpFunctions v0.3.29 [be115224] + MCMCDiagnosticTools v0.3.15 [e80e1ace] + MLJModelInterface v1.12.1 [1914dd2f] + MacroTools v0.5.16 [dbb5928d] + MappedArrays v0.4.3 [e1d29d7a] + Missings v1.2.0 [44c54197] + ModelWrappers v0.5.6 [bac558e1] + OrderedCollections v1.8.1 [90014a1f] + PDMats v0.11.37 ⌅ [aea7be01] + PrecompileTools v1.2.1 [21216c6a] + Preferences v1.5.1 ⌅ [08abe8d2] + PrettyTables v2.4.0 [92933f4c] + ProgressMeter v1.11.0 [43287f4e] + PtrArrays v1.3.0 [1fd47b50] + QuadGK v2.11.2 [c1ae055f] + RealDot v0.1.0 [189a3867] + Reexport v1.2.2 [ae029012] + Requires v1.3.1 [79098fc4] + Rmath v0.9.0 [f2b01f46] + Roots v2.2.10 [30f210dd] + ScientificTypesBase v3.0.0 [ce78b400] + SimpleUnPack v1.1.0 [a2af1166] + SortingAlgorithms v1.2.2 [dc90abb0] + SparseInverseSubset v0.1.2 [276daf66] + SpecialFunctions v2.6.1 [64bff920] + StatisticalTraits v3.5.0 [10745b16] + Statistics v1.11.1 [82ae8749] + StatsAPI v1.8.0 [2913bbd2] + StatsBase v0.34.10 [4c63d2b9] + StatsFuns v1.5.2 [892a3eda] + StringManipulation v0.4.2 [09ab397b] + StructArrays v0.7.2 [3783bdb8] + TableTraits v1.0.1 [bd369af6] + Tables v1.12.1 [3bb67fe8] + TranscodingStreams v0.11.3 [efe28fd5] + OpenSpecFun_jll v0.5.6+0 [f50d1b31] + Rmath_jll v0.5.1+0 [0dad84c5] + ArgTools v1.1.2 [56f22d72] + Artifacts v1.11.0 [2a0f44e3] + Base64 v1.11.0 [ade2ca70] + Dates v1.11.0 [8ba89e20] + Distributed v1.11.0 [f43a241f] + Downloads v1.6.0 [7b1f6079] + FileWatching v1.11.0 [b77e0a4c] + InteractiveUtils v1.11.0 [b27032c2] + LibCURL v0.6.4 [76f85450] + LibGit2 v1.11.0 [8f399da3] + Libdl v1.11.0 [37e2e46d] + LinearAlgebra v1.11.0 [56ddb016] + Logging v1.11.0 [d6f4376e] + Markdown v1.11.0 [a63ad114] + Mmap v1.11.0 [ca575930] + NetworkOptions v1.2.0 [44cfe95a] + Pkg v1.11.0 [de0858da] + Printf v1.11.0 [3fa0cd96] + REPL v1.11.0 [9a3f8284] + Random v1.11.0 [ea8e919c] + SHA v0.7.0 [9e88b42a] + Serialization v1.11.0 [6462fe0b] + Sockets v1.11.0 [2f01184e] + SparseArrays v1.11.0 [f489334b] + StyledStrings v1.11.0 [4607b0f0] + SuiteSparse [fa267f1f] + TOML v1.0.3 [a4e569a6] + Tar v1.10.0 [cf7118a7] + UUIDs v1.11.0 [4ec0a83e] + Unicode v1.11.0 [e66e0078] + CompilerSupportLibraries_jll v1.1.1+0 [deac9b47] + LibCURL_jll v8.6.0+0 [e37daf67] + LibGit2_jll v1.7.2+0 [29816b5a] + LibSSH2_jll v1.11.0+1 [c8ffd9c3] + MbedTLS_jll v2.28.6+0 [14a3606d] + MozillaCACerts_jll v2023.12.12 [4536629a] + OpenBLAS_jll v0.3.27+1 [05823500] + OpenLibm_jll v0.8.5+0 [bea87d4a] + SuiteSparse_jll v7.7.0+0 [83775a58] + Zlib_jll v1.2.13+1 [8e850b90] + libblastrampoline_jll v5.11.0+0 [8e850ede] + nghttp2_jll v1.59.0+0 [3f19e933] + p7zip_jll v17.4.0+2 Info Packages marked with ⌅ have new versions available but compatibility constraints restrict them from upgrading. To see why use `status --outdated -m` Installation completed after 5.92s ################################################################################ # Precompilation # Precompiling PkgEval dependencies... Precompiling package dependencies... Precompiling project... 103242.0 ms ✓ Baytes 1 dependency successfully precompiled in 110 seconds. 176 already precompiled. Precompilation completed after 124.57s ################################################################################ # Testing # Testing Baytes Status `/tmp/jl_lHNaLL/Project.toml` [dce04be8] ArgCheck v2.5.0 [72ddfcfc] Baytes v0.3.16 [e5a8efeb] BaytesCore v0.2.0 [12a76ff9] BaytesDiff v0.3.1 [26b78818] BaytesFilters v0.3.6 [8e6e46a0] BaytesMCMC v0.3.4 [c78c806d] BaytesOptim v0.1.9 [c4a8eb41] BaytesPMCMC v0.3.3 [2428e3a5] BaytesSMC v0.3.6 [31c24e10] Distributions v0.25.123 [ffbed154] DocStringExtensions v0.9.5 ⌃ [f6369f11] ForwardDiff v0.10.39 ⌅ [033835bb] JLD2 v0.4.55 [be115224] MCMCDiagnosticTools v0.3.15 [44c54197] ModelWrappers v0.5.6 ⌅ [d41bc354] NLSolversBase v7.10.0 ⌃ [429524aa] Optim v1.13.3 ⌅ [08abe8d2] PrettyTables v2.4.0 [92933f4c] ProgressMeter v1.11.0 [ce78b400] SimpleUnPack v1.1.0 [10745b16] Statistics v1.11.1 [ade2ca70] Dates v1.11.0 [9a3f8284] Random v1.11.0 [8dfed614] Test v1.11.0 Status `/tmp/jl_lHNaLL/Manifest.toml` [47edcb42] ADTypes v1.21.0 [621f4979] AbstractFFTs v1.5.0 [7d9f7c33] Accessors v0.1.43 [79e6a3ab] Adapt v4.4.0 [66dad0bd] AliasTables v1.1.3 [dce04be8] ArgCheck v2.5.0 [4fba245c] ArrayInterface v7.22.0 [72ddfcfc] Baytes v0.3.16 [e5a8efeb] BaytesCore v0.2.0 [12a76ff9] BaytesDiff v0.3.1 [26b78818] BaytesFilters v0.3.6 [8e6e46a0] BaytesMCMC v0.3.4 [c78c806d] BaytesOptim v0.1.9 [c4a8eb41] BaytesPMCMC v0.3.3 [2428e3a5] BaytesSMC v0.3.6 ⌅ [76274a88] Bijectors v0.13.18 [082447d4] ChainRules v1.72.6 [d360d2e6] ChainRulesCore v1.26.0 [9e997f8a] ChangesOfVariables v0.1.10 [38540f10] CommonSolve v0.2.6 [bbf7d656] CommonSubexpressions v0.3.1 [34da2185] Compat v4.18.1 [a33af91c] CompositionsBase v0.1.2 [187b0558] ConstructionBase v1.6.0 [a8cc5b0e] Crayons v4.1.1 [9a962f9c] DataAPI v1.16.0 [864edb3b] DataStructures v0.19.3 [e2d170a0] DataValueInterfaces v1.0.0 [163ba53b] DiffResults v1.1.0 [b552c78f] DiffRules v1.15.1 [a0c0ee7d] DifferentiationInterface v0.7.14 [31c24e10] Distributions v0.25.123 [ffbed154] DocStringExtensions v0.9.5 [fdbdab4c] ElasticArrays v1.2.12 [4e289a0a] EnumX v1.0.5 [5789e2e9] FileIO v1.17.1 [1a297f60] FillArrays v1.16.0 [6a86dc24] FiniteDiff v2.29.0 ⌃ [f6369f11] ForwardDiff v0.10.39 ⌅ [d9f16b24] Functors v0.4.12 [46192b85] GPUArraysCore v0.2.0 [34004b35] HypergeometricFunctions v0.3.28 [3587e190] InverseFunctions v0.1.17 [92d709cd] IrrationalConstants v0.2.6 [82899510] IteratorInterfaceExtensions v1.0.0 ⌅ [033835bb] JLD2 v0.4.55 [692b3bcd] JLLWrappers v1.7.1 [b964fa9f] LaTeXStrings v1.4.0 ⌃ [d3d80556] LineSearches v7.5.1 [2ab3a3ac] LogExpFunctions v0.3.29 [be115224] MCMCDiagnosticTools v0.3.15 [e80e1ace] MLJModelInterface v1.12.1 [1914dd2f] MacroTools v0.5.16 [dbb5928d] MappedArrays v0.4.3 [e1d29d7a] Missings v1.2.0 [44c54197] ModelWrappers v0.5.6 ⌅ [d41bc354] NLSolversBase v7.10.0 [77ba4419] NaNMath v1.1.3 ⌃ [429524aa] Optim v1.13.3 [bac558e1] OrderedCollections v1.8.1 [90014a1f] PDMats v0.11.37 [85a6dd25] PositiveFactorizations v0.2.4 ⌅ [aea7be01] PrecompileTools v1.2.1 [21216c6a] Preferences v1.5.1 ⌅ [08abe8d2] PrettyTables v2.4.0 [92933f4c] ProgressMeter v1.11.0 [43287f4e] PtrArrays v1.3.0 [1fd47b50] QuadGK v2.11.2 [c1ae055f] RealDot v0.1.0 [189a3867] Reexport v1.2.2 [ae029012] Requires v1.3.1 [79098fc4] Rmath v0.9.0 [f2b01f46] Roots v2.2.10 [30f210dd] ScientificTypesBase v3.0.0 [efcf1570] Setfield v1.1.2 [ce78b400] SimpleUnPack v1.1.0 [a2af1166] SortingAlgorithms v1.2.2 [dc90abb0] SparseInverseSubset v0.1.2 [276daf66] SpecialFunctions v2.6.1 [1e83bf80] StaticArraysCore v1.4.4 [64bff920] StatisticalTraits v3.5.0 [10745b16] Statistics v1.11.1 [82ae8749] StatsAPI v1.8.0 [2913bbd2] StatsBase v0.34.10 [4c63d2b9] StatsFuns v1.5.2 [892a3eda] StringManipulation v0.4.2 [09ab397b] StructArrays v0.7.2 [3783bdb8] TableTraits v1.0.1 [bd369af6] Tables v1.12.1 [3bb67fe8] TranscodingStreams v0.11.3 [efe28fd5] OpenSpecFun_jll v0.5.6+0 [f50d1b31] Rmath_jll v0.5.1+0 [0dad84c5] ArgTools v1.1.2 [56f22d72] Artifacts v1.11.0 [2a0f44e3] Base64 v1.11.0 [ade2ca70] Dates v1.11.0 [8ba89e20] Distributed v1.11.0 [f43a241f] Downloads v1.6.0 [7b1f6079] FileWatching v1.11.0 [9fa8497b] Future v1.11.0 [b77e0a4c] InteractiveUtils v1.11.0 [b27032c2] LibCURL v0.6.4 [76f85450] LibGit2 v1.11.0 [8f399da3] Libdl v1.11.0 [37e2e46d] LinearAlgebra v1.11.0 [56ddb016] Logging v1.11.0 [d6f4376e] Markdown v1.11.0 [a63ad114] Mmap v1.11.0 [ca575930] NetworkOptions v1.2.0 [44cfe95a] Pkg v1.11.0 [de0858da] Printf v1.11.0 [3fa0cd96] REPL v1.11.0 [9a3f8284] Random v1.11.0 [ea8e919c] SHA v0.7.0 [9e88b42a] Serialization v1.11.0 [6462fe0b] Sockets v1.11.0 [2f01184e] SparseArrays v1.11.0 [f489334b] StyledStrings v1.11.0 [4607b0f0] SuiteSparse [fa267f1f] TOML v1.0.3 [a4e569a6] Tar v1.10.0 [8dfed614] Test v1.11.0 [cf7118a7] UUIDs v1.11.0 [4ec0a83e] Unicode v1.11.0 [e66e0078] CompilerSupportLibraries_jll v1.1.1+0 [deac9b47] LibCURL_jll v8.6.0+0 [e37daf67] LibGit2_jll v1.7.2+0 [29816b5a] LibSSH2_jll v1.11.0+1 [c8ffd9c3] MbedTLS_jll v2.28.6+0 [14a3606d] MozillaCACerts_jll v2023.12.12 [4536629a] OpenBLAS_jll v0.3.27+1 [05823500] OpenLibm_jll v0.8.5+0 [bea87d4a] SuiteSparse_jll v7.7.0+0 [83775a58] Zlib_jll v1.2.13+1 [8e850b90] libblastrampoline_jll v5.11.0+0 [8e850ede] nghttp2_jll v1.59.0+0 [3f19e933] p7zip_jll v17.4.0+2 Info Packages marked with ⌃ and ⌅ have new versions available. Those with ⌃ may be upgradable, but those with ⌅ are restricted by compatibility constraints from upgrading. Testing Running tests... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.146 │ 0.253 │ 0.078 │ -0.286 │ -0.033 │ 0.156 │ 0.338 │ 0.631 │ 11.749 │ 10.01 │ 1.289 │ │ σ │ 9.992 │ 0.15 │ 0.025 │ 9.706 │ 9.88 │ 10.0 │ 10.078 │ 10.339 │ 27.676 │ 82.581 │ 1.131 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ ┌───┬──────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.146 │ 0.253 │ 0.078 │ -0.286 │ -0.033 │ 0.156 │ 0.338 │ 0.631 │ 11.749 │ 10.01 │ 1.289 │ │ σ │ 10.0 │ 9.992 │ 0.15 │ 0.025 │ 9.706 │ 9.88 │ 10.0 │ 10.078 │ 10.339 │ 27.676 │ 82.581 │ 1.131 │ └───┴──────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.054 │ 0.259 │ 0.051 │ -0.182 │ -0.079 │ 0.0 │ 0.035 │ 0.775 │ 21.653 │ 12.644 │ 1.414 │ │ σ │ 10.019 │ 0.156 │ 0.016 │ 9.595 │ 9.959 │ 10.0 │ 10.101 │ 10.316 │ 61.514 │ 92.079 │ 1.298 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ ┌───┬──────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.054 │ 0.259 │ 0.051 │ -0.182 │ -0.079 │ 0.0 │ 0.035 │ 0.775 │ 21.653 │ 12.644 │ 1.414 │ │ σ │ 10.0 │ 10.019 │ 0.156 │ 0.016 │ 9.595 │ 9.959 │ 10.0 │ 10.101 │ 10.316 │ 61.514 │ 92.079 │ 1.298 │ └───┴──────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ -0.02 │ 0.208 │ 0.063 │ -0.309 │ -0.191 │ -0.002 │ 0.072 │ 0.542 │ 8.883 │ 39.991 │ 1.434 │ │ σ │ 9.944 │ 0.241 │ 0.071 │ 9.607 │ 9.807 │ 9.955 │ 10.057 │ 10.564 │ 12.216 │ 7.426 │ 1.255 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ ┌───┬──────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ -0.02 │ 0.208 │ 0.063 │ -0.309 │ -0.191 │ -0.002 │ 0.072 │ 0.542 │ 8.883 │ 39.991 │ 1.434 │ │ σ │ 10.0 │ 9.944 │ 0.241 │ 0.071 │ 9.607 │ 9.807 │ 9.955 │ 10.057 │ 10.564 │ 12.216 │ 7.426 │ 1.255 │ └───┴──────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.159 │ 0.313 │ 0.121 │ -0.189 │ -0.089 │ -0.009 │ 0.421 │ 0.702 │ 7.311 │ 9.104 │ 1.611 │ │ σ │ 9.884 │ 0.224 │ 0.053 │ 9.634 │ 9.665 │ 9.896 │ 10.013 │ 10.386 │ 18.469 │ 8.508 │ 1.156 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ ┌───┬──────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.159 │ 0.313 │ 0.121 │ -0.189 │ -0.089 │ -0.009 │ 0.421 │ 0.702 │ 7.311 │ 9.104 │ 1.611 │ │ σ │ 10.0 │ 9.884 │ 0.224 │ 0.053 │ 9.634 │ 9.665 │ 9.896 │ 10.013 │ 10.386 │ 18.469 │ 8.508 │ 1.156 │ └───┴──────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.073 │ 0.331 │ 0.108 │ -0.453 │ -0.138 │ 0.051 │ 0.305 │ 0.781 │ 9.046 │ 24.321 │ 1.434 │ │ σ │ 9.988 │ 0.232 │ 0.034 │ 9.568 │ 9.782 │ 10.0 │ 10.144 │ 10.502 │ 50.164 │ 102.886 │ 1.066 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ ┌───┬──────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.073 │ 0.331 │ 0.108 │ -0.453 │ -0.138 │ 0.051 │ 0.305 │ 0.781 │ 9.046 │ 24.321 │ 1.434 │ │ σ │ 10.0 │ 9.988 │ 0.232 │ 0.034 │ 9.568 │ 9.782 │ 10.0 │ 10.144 │ 10.502 │ 50.164 │ 102.886 │ 1.066 │ └───┴──────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.059 │ 0.439 │ 0.137 │ -0.533 │ -0.312 │ 0.017 │ 0.28 │ 1.099 │ 11.291 │ 26.6 │ 1.311 │ │ σ │ 10.021 │ 0.257 │ 0.027 │ 9.625 │ 9.792 │ 10.02 │ 10.229 │ 10.518 │ 86.933 │ 53.323 │ 1.048 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ ┌───┬──────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.059 │ 0.439 │ 0.137 │ -0.533 │ -0.312 │ 0.017 │ 0.28 │ 1.099 │ 11.291 │ 26.6 │ 1.311 │ │ σ │ 10.0 │ 10.021 │ 0.257 │ 0.027 │ 9.625 │ 9.792 │ 10.02 │ 10.229 │ 10.518 │ 86.933 │ 53.323 │ 1.048 │ └───┴──────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.035 │ 0.296 │ 0.072 │ -0.357 │ -0.158 │ -0.057 │ 0.165 │ 0.884 │ 17.458 │ 22.054 │ 1.248 │ │ σ │ 10.01 │ 0.292 │ 0.051 │ 9.517 │ 9.826 │ 9.978 │ 10.239 │ 10.576 │ 34.269 │ 18.801 │ 1.101 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ ┌───┬──────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.035 │ 0.296 │ 0.072 │ -0.357 │ -0.158 │ -0.057 │ 0.165 │ 0.884 │ 17.458 │ 22.054 │ 1.248 │ │ σ │ 10.0 │ 10.01 │ 0.292 │ 0.051 │ 9.517 │ 9.826 │ 9.978 │ 10.239 │ 10.576 │ 34.269 │ 18.801 │ 1.101 │ └───┴──────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.201 │ 0.322 │ 0.104 │ -0.265 │ -0.045 │ 0.135 │ 0.442 │ 0.864 │ 9.178 │ 25.627 │ 1.405 │ │ σ │ 10.036 │ 0.286 │ 0.031 │ 9.527 │ 9.838 │ 10.006 │ 10.247 │ 10.631 │ 93.295 │ 39.558 │ 1.204 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ ┌───┬──────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.201 │ 0.322 │ 0.104 │ -0.265 │ -0.045 │ 0.135 │ 0.442 │ 0.864 │ 9.178 │ 25.627 │ 1.405 │ │ σ │ 10.0 │ 10.036 │ 0.286 │ 0.031 │ 9.527 │ 9.838 │ 10.006 │ 10.247 │ 10.631 │ 93.295 │ 39.558 │ 1.204 │ └───┴──────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1080.002, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3737.283. NUTS sampler had 37 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 22.642 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.45 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 37, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.252 │ 0.313 │ 0.04 │ -0.293 │ 0.008 │ 0.252 │ 0.458 │ 0.949 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ │ σ │ 10.027 │ 0.211 │ 0.013 │ 9.635 │ 9.891 │ 10.019 │ 10.202 │ 10.438 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1080.486, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3734.96. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 20.86 (27) number of steps and depth of 3.78 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.328 │ 0.371 │ 0.073 │ -0.268 │ 0.083 │ 0.239 │ 0.61 │ 1.055 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ │ σ │ 9.98 │ 0.224 │ 0.029 │ 9.558 │ 9.839 │ 9.96 │ 10.144 │ 10.375 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1079.823, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3738.829. NUTS sampler had 29 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 18.946 (7) number of steps and depth of 3.438 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 29, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1080.344, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3738.273. NUTS sampler had 28 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 19.216 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.42 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 28, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.237 │ 0.29 │ 0.037 │ -0.318 │ 0.034 │ 0.242 │ 0.431 │ 0.84 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ │ σ │ 10.023 │ 0.209 │ 0.011 │ 9.603 │ 9.876 │ 10.037 │ 10.164 │ 10.436 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1080.344, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.25. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 23.02 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.92 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1080.031, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.152. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 20.72 (7) number of steps and depth of 3.71 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.27 │ 0.303 │ 0.035 │ -0.273 │ 0.053 │ 0.259 │ 0.471 │ 0.814 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ │ σ │ 10.035 │ 0.278 │ 0.026 │ 9.499 │ 9.841 │ 10.044 │ 10.205 │ 10.609 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.001, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.56. NUTS sampler had 172 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 48.126 (7) number of steps and depth of 2.5 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 34, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 138, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.004, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.404. NUTS sampler had 75 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 106.748 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.496 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 25, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 50, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.001, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.638. NUTS sampler had 211 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 24.924 (1) number of steps and depth of 2.004 (0). Divergences in: Warmup: 36, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 175, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1.827, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.311. NUTS sampler had 69 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 96.32 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.736 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 19, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 50, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬─────────┬─────────┬─────────┬──────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼─────────┼─────────┼─────────┼──────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ -15.509 │ 69.232 │ 27.937 │ -174.358 │ -0.012 │ 0.349 │ 2.852 │ 52.197 │ 7.32 │ 12.744 │ 1.679 │ │ σ │ 2142.26 │ 42524.1 │ 1258.54 │ 9.64 │ 10.014 │ 10.193 │ 33.407 │ 653.68 │ 8.805 │ 89.617 │ 1.588 │ └───┴─────────┴─────────┴─────────┴──────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.001, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3738.68. NUTS sampler had 25 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 199.06 (1) number of steps and depth of 3.78 (0). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 25, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.015, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.742. NUTS sampler had 15 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 247.04 (2) number of steps and depth of 4.85 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 15, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.779, Avg. final ℓposterior: -5864.068. NUTS sampler had 68 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 49.27 (1) number of steps and depth of 1.48 (0). Divergences in: Warmup: 43, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 25, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.001, Avg. final ℓposterior: -4436.643. NUTS sampler had 25 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 257.44 (1) number of steps and depth of 4.08 (0). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 25, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬─────────┬───────────┬─────────┬─────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬─────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼─────────┼───────────┼─────────┼─────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼─────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 76.445 │ 345.66 │ 73.265 │ -24.356 │ 0.414 │ 15.026 │ 37.974 │ 819.028 │ 11.618 │ 29.818 │ 1.671 │ │ σ │ 18519.2 │ 2.29535e5 │ 15016.9 │ 3.825 │ 10.183 │ 19.998 │ 33.019 │ 34345.4 │ 11.687 │ 37.74 │ 1.467 │ └───┴─────────┴───────────┴─────────┴─────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴─────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.029, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3737.415. NUTS sampler had 68 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 102.658 (23) number of steps and depth of 3.718 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 18, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 50, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.005, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3736.398. NUTS sampler had 85 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 106.268 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.872 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 35, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 50, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.001, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.513. NUTS sampler had 86 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 101.258 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.56 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 36, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 50, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.331, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3736.888. NUTS sampler had 75 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 120.826 (7) number of steps and depth of 3.984 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 25, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 50, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.002, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3738.438. NUTS sampler had 69 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 95.924 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.678 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 19, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 50, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.005, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3739.146. NUTS sampler had 85 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 112.942 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.916 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 35, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 50, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.01, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.581. NUTS sampler had 86 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 99.988 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.558 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 36, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 50, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.176, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.901. NUTS sampler had 74 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 111.43 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.968 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 24, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 50, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬─────────┬─────────┬─────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬─────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼─────────┼─────────┼─────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼─────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 3.144 │ 45.262 │ 4.604 │ -6.625 │ -0.016 │ 0.273 │ 0.552 │ 4.376 │ 48.488 │ 18.811 │ 1.128 │ │ σ │ 2633.99 │ 55242.9 │ 1971.18 │ 9.461 │ 9.873 │ 10.068 │ 10.312 │ 351.801 │ 32.904 │ 18.352 │ 1.083 │ └───┴─────────┴─────────┴─────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴─────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.001, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.42. NUTS sampler had 25 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 276.12 (1) number of steps and depth of 4.75 (0). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 25, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.001, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3736.505. NUTS sampler had 25 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 225.06 (1) number of steps and depth of 4.3 (0). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 25, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.001, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3736.044. NUTS sampler had 25 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 254.76 (1) number of steps and depth of 4.51 (0). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 25, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.001, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3739.437. NUTS sampler had 24 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 266.03 (1) number of steps and depth of 4.64 (0). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 24, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.001, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.42. NUTS sampler had 25 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 266.94 (1) number of steps and depth of 4.77 (0). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 25, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.001, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3736.505. NUTS sampler had 25 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 237.56 (1) number of steps and depth of 4.4 (0). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 25, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.001, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3736.044. NUTS sampler had 25 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 254.86 (1) number of steps and depth of 4.62 (0). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 25, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.001, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3739.437. NUTS sampler had 25 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 257.69 (1) number of steps and depth of 4.53 (0). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 25, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬─────────┬─────────┬─────────┬──────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬─────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼─────────┼─────────┼─────────┼──────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼─────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ -13.764 │ 35.177 │ 7.668 │ -111.726 │ -0.579 │ 0.164 │ 0.733 │ 16.047 │ 39.367 │ 63.118 │ 1.528 │ │ σ │ 5894.78 │ 64537.7 │ 4496.58 │ 9.196 │ 9.953 │ 10.184 │ 17.247 │ 22343.7 │ 18.742 │ 71.73 │ 1.465 │ └───┴─────────┴─────────┴─────────┴──────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴─────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.88, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.647. NUTS sampler had 25 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 24.838 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.506 (5). Divergences in: Warmup: 25, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.187 │ 0.281 │ 0.033 │ -0.306 │ -0.023 │ 0.163 │ 0.366 │ 0.746 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ │ σ │ 10.017 │ 0.207 │ 0.015 │ 9.603 │ 9.869 │ 10.032 │ 10.143 │ 10.446 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -3735.61, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.429. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 19.12 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.65 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.318 │ 0.263 │ 0.043 │ -0.137 │ 0.157 │ 0.289 │ 0.46 │ 0.847 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ │ σ │ 10.019 │ 0.188 │ 0.019 │ 9.669 │ 9.902 │ 10.003 │ 10.157 │ 10.394 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1868.228, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.385. NUTS sampler had 36 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 16.882 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.266 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 36, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1868.233, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3736.682. NUTS sampler had 29 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 18.138 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.358 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 29, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.268 │ 0.292 │ 0.037 │ -0.278 │ 0.038 │ 0.294 │ 0.463 │ 0.798 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ │ σ │ 10.011 │ 0.217 │ 0.012 │ 9.61 │ 9.853 │ 9.992 │ 10.176 │ 10.433 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -3736.187, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3738.659. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 18.32 (3) number of steps and depth of 3.54 (2). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -3735.304, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.755. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 20.42 (9) number of steps and depth of 3.77 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.283 │ 0.275 │ 0.032 │ -0.259 │ 0.097 │ 0.291 │ 0.427 │ 0.812 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ │ σ │ 10.04 │ 0.251 │ 0.026 │ 9.487 │ 9.894 │ 10.064 │ 10.214 │ 10.502 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.88, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2588.564. NUTS sampler had 28 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 20.842 (23) number of steps and depth of 3.518 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 28, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.88, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2588.5. NUTS sampler had 26 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 21.144 (23) number of steps and depth of 3.494 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 26, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1868.178, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2590.226. NUTS sampler had 24 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 19.452 (7) number of steps and depth of 3.326 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 24, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.88, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2588.573. NUTS sampler had 29 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.468 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.31 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 29, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.285 │ 0.349 │ 0.018 │ -0.431 │ 0.058 │ 0.28 │ 0.52 │ 0.964 │ 388.056 │ 583.59 │ 1.014 │ │ σ │ 10.006 │ 0.276 │ 0.014 │ 9.493 │ 9.806 │ 10.0 │ 10.195 │ 10.575 │ 374.169 │ 922.418 │ 1.013 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2589.606, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2696.976. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 20.82 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.77 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2590.039, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2696.732. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.52 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.57 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2589.948, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2696.316. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 19.34 (13) number of steps and depth of 3.59 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2589.697, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2695.548. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.82 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.56 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.284 │ 0.337 │ 0.036 │ -0.349 │ 0.061 │ 0.287 │ 0.517 │ 0.907 │ 85.733 │ 171.701 │ 1.031 │ │ σ │ 10.02 │ 0.27 │ 0.014 │ 9.474 │ 9.841 │ 10.024 │ 10.199 │ 10.575 │ 355.182 │ 192.684 │ 1.03 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.88, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2588.489. NUTS sampler had 22 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.536 (7) number of steps and depth of 3.292 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 22, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.88, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2588.339. NUTS sampler had 22 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 18.106 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.332 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 22, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.88, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2588.986. NUTS sampler had 22 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.84 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.318 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 22, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.88, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2588.669. NUTS sampler had 26 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.334 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.3 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 26, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.88, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2589.687. NUTS sampler had 23 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 16.752 (11) number of steps and depth of 3.278 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 23, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.801, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2588.782. NUTS sampler had 19 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.824 (11) number of steps and depth of 3.336 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 19, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1868.501, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2588.985. NUTS sampler had 20 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 18.64 (23) number of steps and depth of 3.31 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 20, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.88, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2588.485. NUTS sampler had 34 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 16.652 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.272 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 34, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.274 │ 0.37 │ 0.016 │ -0.454 │ 0.021 │ 0.274 │ 0.518 │ 1.013 │ 546.633 │ 802.682 │ 1.008 │ │ σ │ 10.034 │ 0.283 │ 0.007 │ 9.489 │ 9.839 │ 10.018 │ 10.219 │ 10.601 │ 1570.13 │ 1273.3 │ 1.001 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2591.844, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2695.869. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 15.86 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.36 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2589.983, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2696.962. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 18.7 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.7 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2590.994, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2695.538. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 19.92 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.73 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2590.461, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2695.449. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.56 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.55 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2591.856, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2695.742. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.1 (11) number of steps and depth of 3.57 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2589.451, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2695.268. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 19.74 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.71 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2590.166, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2695.369. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 20.42 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.72 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2590.713, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2695.509. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 16.42 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.53 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.292 │ 0.342 │ 0.025 │ -0.37 │ 0.062 │ 0.289 │ 0.505 │ 0.938 │ 190.294 │ 268.263 │ 1.006 │ │ σ │ 10.011 │ 0.245 │ 0.011 │ 9.509 │ 9.845 │ 10.007 │ 10.186 │ 10.484 │ 471.792 │ 372.653 │ 1.011 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Computing... 0%|▏ | ETA: 0:05:26 ( 0.82 s/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 2 logobjective: -3735.7599335028153 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.5413158259350118e-85 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3739.129127462438                         Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:03 ( 8.75 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 100 logobjective: -3736.6338658551654 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9998606429315371 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 127 ℓH: -3738.885526433838 Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -3735.76, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3736.362. NUTS sampler had 27 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 13.156 (95) number of steps and depth of 2.067 (6). Divergences in: Warmup: 27, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -3735.76, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.746. NUTS sampler had 23 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 24.4 (63) number of steps and depth of 2.333 (5). Divergences in: Warmup: 23, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -3735.369, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3737.944. NUTS sampler had 33 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 10.889 (23) number of steps and depth of 2.011 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 33, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -3735.759, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3736.634. NUTS sampler had 18 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 35.067 (127) number of steps and depth of 2.411 (6). Divergences in: Warmup: 18, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.235 │ 0.248 │ 0.05 │ -0.224 │ 0.087 │ 0.177 │ 0.346 │ 0.79 │ 25.168 │ 69.309 │ 1.314 │ │ σ │ 10.025 │ 0.141 │ 0.015 │ 9.708 │ 9.947 │ 10.03 │ 10.113 │ 10.3 │ 79.727 │ 55.197 │ 1.29 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Computing... 0%|▏ | ETA: 0:01:40 ( 0.25 s/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 102 logobjective: -3735.346450791276 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9998397021701971 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 63 ℓH: -3736.320869236958                         Computing... 32%|████████▏ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 4.94 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 130 logobjective: -3738.035026514941 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9915856999655959 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 19 ℓH: -3739.256690994984                         Computing... 90%|██████████████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 2.18 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 159 logobjective: -3736.791978779082 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9965431108308745 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 31 ℓH: -3739.097895882271                         Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:00 ( 2.00 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 200 logobjective: -3735.3317748247227 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9995247668474742 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 31 ℓH: -3736.1793764087743 Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -3735.545, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.487. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 22.089 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.7 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -3736.106, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3737.223. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 26.578 (23) number of steps and depth of 3.822 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -3738.886, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.393. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.933 (7) number of steps and depth of 3.433 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -3736.272, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.332. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 38.133 (31) number of steps and depth of 4.156 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.299 │ 0.337 │ 0.033 │ -0.384 │ 0.074 │ 0.318 │ 0.525 │ 0.942 │ 107.373 │ 116.552 │ 1.046 │ │ σ │ 10.009 │ 0.256 │ 0.02 │ 9.505 │ 9.842 │ 10.008 │ 10.165 │ 10.509 │ 159.094 │ 117.586 │ 1.033 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Computing... 0%|▏ | ETA: 0:02:02 ( 0.31 s/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1000 Avgℓobjective: -3738.4475361328045 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8235437186907668 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 45%|███████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 6.73 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1044 Avgℓobjective: -3738.5126248161105 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.24308308030047437 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 59%|██████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 5.86 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1058 Avgℓobjective: -3738.8516122341503 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.2226125273027611 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 88%|██████████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 4.26 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1087 Avgℓobjective: -3738.0083224907703 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.28244563794041244 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:01 ( 3.89 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1099 Avgℓobjective: -3738.3568549150004 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.6424563201373563 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -3738.296, variance: 0.23 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -3738.357, variance: 0.489 Total number of jittering steps: 112. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.752, -0.074, 0.285, 0.653, 0.912]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.316 │ 0.287 │ 0.027 │ -0.289 │ 0.127 │ 0.325 │ 0.513 │ 0.828 │ 112.795 │ 120.72 │ 1.029 │ │ σ │ 10.02 │ 0.222 │ 0.013 │ 9.551 │ 9.881 │ 10.024 │ 10.162 │ 10.461 │ 305.109 │ 250.855 │ 1.017 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Computing... 37%|█████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 0.68 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1137 Avgℓobjective: -1578.166140491424 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 1.0 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 74%|██████████████████▍ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 1.79 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1173 Avgℓobjective: -1576.9317512879952 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.36179613838129615 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 82%|████████████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 1.95 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1181 Avgℓobjective: -1578.168981216576 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.2596026112890645 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 90%|██████████████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 2.07 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1189 Avgℓobjective: -1577.0155153358628 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.5372110275131743 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 98%|████████████████████████▍| ETA: 0:00:00 ( 2.17 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1197 Avgℓobjective: -1577.504366821327 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.4224262968613001 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:00 ( 2.20 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1199 Avgℓobjective: -1577.4523631873776 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.39150549995288364 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1576.979, variance: 0.199 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1577.452, variance: 0.235 Total number of jittering steps: 230. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.488, 0.135, 0.534, 0.837, 1.0]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.029 │ 0.029 │ 0.003 │ -0.02 │ 0.01 │ 0.031 │ 0.046 │ 0.089 │ 140.345 │ 200.857 │ 1.127 │ │ σ │ 1.014 │ 0.024 │ 0.006 │ 0.966 │ 0.997 │ 1.014 │ 1.03 │ 1.062 │ 18.797 │ 26.369 │ 1.201 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Computing... 0%| | ETA: 0:07:04 ( 0.53 s/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1000 Avgℓobjective: -49567.00504540928 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: NaN generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 13%|███▎ | ETA: 0:00:14 (19.92 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1050 Avgℓobjective: -3738.4913904784617 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.32381700014044307 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 14%|███▌ | ETA: 0:00:13 (19.22 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1055 Avgℓobjective: -3738.2434270615413 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8179018121690376 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 15%|███▊ | ETA: 0:00:13 (18.95 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 61 logobjective: -3735.981933224951 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 7.812888452316433e-101 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -3736.0544260785664                         Computing... 16%|████ | ETA: 0:00:13 (18.81 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1063 Avgℓobjective: -3738.6624567801696 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8696250214129265 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 17%|████▎ | ETA: 0:00:13 (19.05 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1066 Avgℓobjective: -3738.8533747430247 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.46003416506451994 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 18%|████▌ | ETA: 0:00:12 (18.79 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1070 Avgℓobjective: -3738.256796109817 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.6386048522269255 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 19%|████▋ | ETA: 0:00:12 (18.99 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 75 logobjective: -3736.338465400648 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 3.605671634845371e-80 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3736.929857132196                         Computing... 19%|████▊ | ETA: 0:00:12 (19.25 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 77 logobjective: -3736.1381188031028 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.8643305418125355e-12 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -3737.3202496936783                         Computing... 20%|█████ | ETA: 0:00:12 (19.21 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1079 Avgℓobjective: -3738.189345816862 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.6218849858799338 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 21%|█████▎ | ETA: 0:00:12 (18.99 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1084 Avgℓobjective: -3738.1378328227 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.12203332703139835 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 22%|█████▌ | ETA: 0:00:12 (18.76 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1088 Avgℓobjective: -3740.820001923045 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.5939027264496338 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 24%|██████ | ETA: 0:00:11 (18.71 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1094 Avgℓobjective: -3738.8354530993056 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.19797753772299256 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 25%|██████▎ | ETA: 0:00:11 (18.59 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1098 Avgℓobjective: -3738.153746479176 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.5563840160310491 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 29%|███████▎ | ETA: 0:00:09 (16.32 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1015 Avgℓobjective: -6053.800022605594 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8944974461845907 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 33%|████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:10 (17.71 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 32 logobjective: -3735.4509873460324 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 9.289670390290298e-64 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3736.1461387427094                         Computing... 38%|█████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:09 (17.47 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 52 logobjective: -3735.58361466876 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 2.531781786469256e-51 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3735.81061774548                         Computing... 39%|█████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:09 (17.53 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1054 Avgℓobjective: -3738.083999023963 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.46456511959475 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 40%|█████████▉ | ETA: 0:00:08 (17.56 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1057 Avgℓobjective: -3738.6603540597816 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.646282292348504 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 41%|██████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:08 (17.30 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1063 Avgℓobjective: -3739.028616572511 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.7125839556093665 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 42%|██████████▋ | ETA: 0:00:08 (17.04 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1069 Avgℓobjective: -3738.908462911349 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8294015894526701 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 44%|███████████ | ETA: 0:00:08 (16.90 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1074 Avgℓobjective: -3739.52793171849 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.679433422365298 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 45%|███████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:07 (16.87 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1078 Avgℓobjective: -3738.3172106080624 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.03328755623076707 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 46%|███████████▍ | ETA: 0:00:07 (16.91 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 83 logobjective: -3735.785123362207 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 2.817964442308862e-60 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3737.6890453838414                         Computing... 47%|███████████▉ | ETA: 0:00:07 (16.67 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 90 logobjective: -3736.951744144638 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 3.199441269823389e-39 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -3738.2157813872445                         Computing... 49%|████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:07 (16.48 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1094 Avgℓobjective: -3738.6339343642053 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.5339423521115767 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 50%|████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:07 (16.37 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1099 Avgℓobjective: -3739.138925872141 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.25901215025478525 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 60%|███████████████ | ETA: 0:00:05 (14.99 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1039 Avgℓobjective: -3737.8303795345196 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.34642733369088424 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 62%|███████████████▍ | ETA: 0:00:05 (15.21 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1045 Avgℓobjective: -3739.7643324424384 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.29477760245411255 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 65%|████████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:04 (14.97 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1060 Avgℓobjective: -3738.012274255435 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.8160269040156918 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 66%|████████████████▋ | ETA: 0:00:04 (15.08 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 66 logobjective: -3735.506168672055 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 6.272235863864946e-58 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3735.909008849473                         Computing... 67%|████████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:04 (15.16 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1067 Avgℓobjective: -3738.283950080225 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.44082837494514554 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 68%|█████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:04 (15.21 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1071 Avgℓobjective: -3738.642620352828 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.0076903674402034605 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 69%|█████████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:04 (15.19 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 77 logobjective: -3735.6224708058803 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.1587486942487516e-5 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3735.931169763669                         Computing... 70%|█████████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:04 (15.20 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1079 Avgℓobjective: -3738.169562211889 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.15082996384929043 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 71%|█████████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:04 (15.17 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1083 Avgℓobjective: -3738.725831953687 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.18896854487659379 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 72%|██████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:03 (15.12 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1088 Avgℓobjective: -3738.9228822095424 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8701116011894884 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 73%|██████████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:03 (15.22 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1091 Avgℓobjective: -3738.2836652663473 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.24984738379516072 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 74%|██████████████████▍ | ETA: 0:00:03 (15.30 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1093 Avgℓobjective: -3738.1599612094083 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8717549798298896 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 74%|██████████████████▋ | ETA: 0:00:03 (15.35 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 98 logobjective: -3735.4422054724137 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 2.0701373443405797e-32 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3737.111689214582                         Computing... 78%|███████████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:03 (14.76 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1012 Avgℓobjective: -7900.8800587600845 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.6483902043685691 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 82%|████████████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:02 (15.12 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1026 Avgℓobjective: -3745.6337059047755 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9775946340184047 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 82%|████████████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:02 (15.18 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1028 Avgℓobjective: -3739.142244244323 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.6384880349362779 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 87%|█████████████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:02 (14.53 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1047 Avgℓobjective: -3738.1954102498817 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9033511059353961 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 91%|██████████████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:01 (14.03 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1063 Avgℓobjective: -3738.4929502336063 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.5758220346976674 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 95%|███████████████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:01 (13.77 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1079 Avgℓobjective: -3739.275665638178 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.05422982820584571 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 97%|████████████████████████▎| ETA: 0:00:00 (13.62 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1087 Avgℓobjective: -3738.0871998122257 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.22488855158989607 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 99%|████████████████████████▊| ETA: 0:00:00 (13.48 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1095 Avgℓobjective: -3738.050244927933 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.4589002409013204 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:10 (13.41 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1099 Avgℓobjective: -3738.633580804174 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.14320921224236138 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -8898.125, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.877. NUTS sampler had 53 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.667 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.756 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 49, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 4, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -18322.387, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.495. NUTS sampler had 49 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.656 (3) number of steps and depth of 0.833 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 45, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 4, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -8841.796, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.719. NUTS sampler had 52 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.611 (2) number of steps and depth of 0.8 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 47, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 5, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -8110.309, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3738.602. NUTS sampler had 46 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.7 (3) number of steps and depth of 0.822 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 41, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 5, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -9322.816, variance: 1.3211604241e7 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -3738.087, variance: 0.115 Total number of jittering steps: 233. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.283, 0.351, 0.64, 0.874, 0.98]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.75, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 2: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -14108.689, variance: 6.5420403255e7 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -3739.139, variance: 1.382 Total number of jittering steps: 231. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.196, 0.285, 0.65, 0.869, 0.999]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 3: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -10097.426, variance: 4.808001518e6 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -3738.263, variance: 0.094 Total number of jittering steps: 229. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.693, 0.171, 0.445, 0.876, 0.997]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 4: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -14653.5, variance: 7.5305226027e7 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -3738.634, variance: 0.553 Total number of jittering steps: 179. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.598, 0.21, 0.575, 0.822, 0.971]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 6.775]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.212 │ 0.262 │ 0.019 │ -0.255 │ 0.045 │ 0.144 │ 0.411 │ 0.738 │ 206.44 │ 242.525 │ 1.052 │ │ σ │ 9.429 │ 2.603 │ 0.344 │ 2.774 │ 9.77 │ 9.978 │ 10.142 │ 10.592 │ 74.85 │ 70.239 │ 1.062 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Computing... 0%| | ETA: 0:04:05 ( 0.31 s/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1100 Avgℓobjective: -3280.1354532730393 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.3123615495583977 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 2%|▌ | ETA: 0:00:33 (42.56 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 109 logobjective: -2252.2125020085928 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.0 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -2253.68653157087                         Computing... 10%|██▍ | ETA: 0:00:08 (11.56 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1137 Avgℓobjective: -1636.908565365944 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9606904788630541 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 14%|███▋ | ETA: 0:00:06 ( 9.42 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 158 logobjective: -1602.473566202661 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 2.765264817689301e-33 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -1602.5049923907739                         Computing... 17%|████▎ | ETA: 0:00:06 ( 8.60 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1168 Avgℓobjective: -1601.1377191162749 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.6564526899362726 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 20%|█████▏ | ETA: 0:00:05 ( 7.90 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1181 Avgℓobjective: -1601.5010642781378 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.3950023692022103 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 24%|██████ | ETA: 0:00:05 ( 7.39 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1194 Avgℓobjective: -1601.4444692935965 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.43033222043614555 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 27%|██████▊ | ETA: 0:00:04 ( 7.05 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 108 logobjective: -1692.1182257468802 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.0 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1695.3868502760154                         Computing... 34%|████████▋ | ETA: 0:00:03 ( 5.86 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1137 Avgℓobjective: -1610.5805421456766 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.79201011975127 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 42%|██████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:02 ( 5.31 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1167 Avgℓobjective: -1601.0882819940052 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.06878370959007835 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 46%|███████████▋ | ETA: 0:00:02 ( 5.09 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1185 Avgℓobjective: -1601.070928199813 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.5177191866406077 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 51%|████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:02 ( 4.98 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1102 Avgℓobjective: -2339.429888548511 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9852148457704193 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 54%|█████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:02 ( 4.99 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 117 logobjective: -1601.0195131428143 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.578029087900047e-9 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1601.4277027071007                         Computing... 62%|███████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 4.62 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1146 Avgℓobjective: -1601.664872248593 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8042698885422794 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 68%|█████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 4.38 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 173 logobjective: -1600.3987383136975 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.0005782040525965617 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1600.4817990311851                         Computing... 74%|██████████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 4.21 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1196 Avgℓobjective: -1601.1322130428575 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.7618582272545017 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 80%|████████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 4.35 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 120 logobjective: -1636.5616649451401 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.0 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1637.774307545313                         Computing... 90%|██████████████████████▍ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 4.05 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 159 logobjective: -1601.62374118074 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 2.0564308307077136e-124 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1601.842708066188                         Computing... 98%|████████████████████████▍| ETA: 0:00:00 ( 4.08 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 191 logobjective: -1602.7752832215742 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 5.005840964856988e-205 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 2 ℓH: -1604.5458071256442                         Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:03 ( 4.12 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1199 Avgℓobjective: -1601.1690435060702 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.41279358047570686 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1601.331, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1600.529. NUTS sampler had 52 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.5 (2) number of steps and depth of 0.733 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 45, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 7, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1603.751, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1600.553. NUTS sampler had 54 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.489 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.744 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 49, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 5, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1600.699, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1601.217. NUTS sampler had 42 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.556 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.878 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 36, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 6, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1602.291, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1600.686. NUTS sampler had 46 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.489 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.789 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 35, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 11, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1649.909, variance: 9662.595 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1601.526, variance: 0.48 Total number of jittering steps: 288. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.414, 0.399, 0.799, 0.94, 0.994]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 5.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 2: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1657.19, variance: 4783.287 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1601.309, variance: 0.474 Total number of jittering steps: 258. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.47, 0.063, 0.63, 0.898, 0.999]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 4.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 3: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1657.959, variance: 12811.335 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1601.702, variance: 0.235 Total number of jittering steps: 259. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.713, -0.021, 0.603, 0.923, 0.995]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 4: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1735.154, variance: 70471.348 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1601.169, variance: 0.566 Total number of jittering steps: 292. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.241, 0.175, 0.713, 0.917, 1.0]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 5.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ -0.026 │ 0.059 │ 0.006 │ -0.113 │ -0.053 │ -0.026 │ -0.004 │ 0.046 │ 266.411 │ 71.617 │ 1.052 │ │ σ │ 1.031 │ 0.092 │ 0.012 │ 0.881 │ 1.018 │ 1.033 │ 1.048 │ 1.086 │ 144.281 │ 59.526 │ 1.083 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Computing... 0%|▏ | ETA: 0:03:01 ( 0.45 s/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 2 logobjective: -1079.8232668525707 Temperature: 0.289050497374996 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.31301091036939543 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -1080.1907697625957                         Computing... 52%|█████████████ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 5.48 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 7 logobjective: -1499.3898349429764 Temperature: 0.401312339887548 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.05109514622942742 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -1501.0152476882263                         Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:01 ( 3.03 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 100 logobjective: -3735.437336931283 Temperature: 0.9998636296729204 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9997278346783417 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 63 ℓH: -3735.678101730642 Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1868.144, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.373. NUTS sampler had 26 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 18.756 (79) number of steps and depth of 2.144 (6). Divergences in: Warmup: 26, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1869.526, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.303. NUTS sampler had 35 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 59.5 (15) number of steps and depth of 2.4 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 35, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.649, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3737.345. NUTS sampler had 23 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 11.978 (7) number of steps and depth of 1.944 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 23, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.745, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.437. NUTS sampler had 17 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 10.389 (63) number of steps and depth of 1.933 (5). Divergences in: Warmup: 17, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.155 │ 0.285 │ 0.085 │ -0.405 │ 0.04 │ 0.168 │ 0.299 │ 0.73 │ 11.331 │ 17.963 │ 1.324 │ │ σ │ 9.92 │ 0.272 │ 0.098 │ 9.455 │ 9.793 │ 9.973 │ 10.114 │ 10.318 │ 10.146 │ 5.633 │ 1.389 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Computing... 0%|▏ | ETA: 0:01:39 ( 0.25 s/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 102 logobjective: -1079.914977697063 Temperature: 0.289050497374996 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9998669223347451 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 127 ℓH: -1080.2099676413727                         Computing... 8%|██ | ETA: 0:00:07 (18.87 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 132 logobjective: -3327.8206838467663 Temperature: 0.8909031788043871 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.997312232785401 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 15 ℓH: -3328.5186619598608                         Computing... 40%|██████████ | ETA: 0:00:02 ( 6.61 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 160 logobjective: -3707.949414789547 Temperature: 0.9926084586557181 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9984420177037351 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 23 ℓH: -3708.1653944577743                         Computing... 74%|██████████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 4.03 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 195 logobjective: -3736.268003593209 Temperature: 0.9997751832297667 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.995132561235218 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 31 ℓH: -3738.21327911445                         Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:01 ( 3.21 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 200 logobjective: -3739.3863425718487 Temperature: 0.9998636296729204 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9883485726842672 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 15 ℓH: -3739.8052124135925 Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1868.376, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3734.964. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 26.222 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.889 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1868.224, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.511. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 80.933 (29) number of steps and depth of 4.3 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1868.899, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.32. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 26.889 (39) number of steps and depth of 4.089 (5). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1869.48, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3739.386. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 18.356 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.578 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.278 │ 0.274 │ 0.023 │ -0.259 │ 0.085 │ 0.304 │ 0.461 │ 0.796 │ 136.609 │ 131.956 │ 1.033 │ │ σ │ 10.007 │ 0.235 │ 0.015 │ 9.573 │ 9.852 │ 10.004 │ 10.163 │ 10.445 │ 259.157 │ 248.41 │ 1.009 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Computing... 0%|▏ | ETA: 0:01:50 ( 0.28 s/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1000 Avgℓobjective: -1080.8711792073886 Temperature: 0.289050497374996 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.22777723263088684 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 30%|███████▌ | ETA: 0:00:02 ( 5.49 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1029 Avgℓobjective: -3253.1022106868777 Temperature: 0.8698915256370021 ESS: 3.997728795761547 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.05465074958899574 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 58%|██████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 3.39 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1057 Avgℓobjective: -3704.2484922352055 Temperature: 0.990986701347152 ESS: 3.9999999919339837 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.19205338588198978 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 87%|█████████████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 2.54 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1087 Avgℓobjective: -3736.9825418240316 Temperature: 0.9995473777767595 ESS: 3.9999999961457577 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.26085264782235323 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:00 ( 2.32 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1099 Avgℓobjective: -3737.9245738108393 Temperature: 0.9998636296729204 ESS: 3.9999999984462837 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.468115870511318 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1870.003, variance: 4.061 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -3737.925, variance: 0.255 Total number of jittering steps: 117. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.388, 0.145, 0.457, 0.652, 0.945]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.775]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.976, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.232 │ 0.345 │ 0.04 │ -0.411 │ -0.005 │ 0.213 │ 0.465 │ 0.926 │ 75.635 │ 95.695 │ 1.101 │ │ σ │ 10.005 │ 0.264 │ 0.016 │ 9.466 │ 9.837 │ 10.007 │ 10.191 │ 10.53 │ 253.704 │ 174.41 │ 1.034 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Computing... 61%|███████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 0.41 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1160 Avgℓobjective: -1549.6631898120545 Temperature: 0.9933071490757153 ESS: 3.999997691527077 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.7800383652112866 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:00 ( 0.71 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1199 Avgℓobjective: -1559.8999700721681 Temperature: 0.9998636296729204 ESS: 3.999999998963845 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.09199219205579551 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -790.061, variance: 6.089 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1559.9, variance: 1.671 Total number of jittering steps: 226. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.419, 0.093, 0.396, 0.836, 1.0]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.985, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ -0.026 │ 0.032 │ 0.002 │ -0.094 │ -0.048 │ -0.026 │ -0.005 │ 0.035 │ 176.094 │ 150.577 │ 1.037 │ │ σ │ 0.995 │ 0.03 │ 0.004 │ 0.942 │ 0.978 │ 0.994 │ 1.013 │ 1.056 │ 62.166 │ 45.068 │ 1.048 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Computing... 0%| | ETA: 0:06:46 ( 0.51 s/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1000 Avgℓobjective: -13600.871606312277 Temperature: 0.289050497374996 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: NaN generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 13%|███▎ | ETA: 0:00:13 (18.59 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1050 Avgℓobjective: -3671.045391841777 Temperature: 0.9820137900379085 ESS: 3.999995669554592 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.5195366486250343 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 24%|██████ | ETA: 0:00:08 (12.67 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1094 Avgℓobjective: -3737.4404411079977 Temperature: 0.9997751832297667 ESS: 3.99999999988559 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.2071167224241624 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 26%|██████▌ | ETA: 0:00:07 (12.12 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 4 logobjective: -15612.950321509386 Temperature: 0.3318122278318339 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.0 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -15613.24200914126                         Computing... 41%|██████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:07 (13.89 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1062 Avgℓobjective: -3718.2048589626593 Temperature: 0.9945137011005495 ESS: 3.999999859670941 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.7379604105825015 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 43%|██████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:06 (13.47 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1071 Avgℓobjective: -3729.855926046222 Temperature: 0.9977621514787236 ESS: 3.9999999407429208 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.05659994644136357 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 45%|███████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:06 (13.11 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 81 logobjective: -3732.109749220059 Temperature: 0.9990889488055994 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.3333333333333333 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -3732.147465203219                         Computing... 47%|███████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:05 (12.81 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1088 Avgℓobjective: -3737.53308554668 Temperature: 0.9995904328350139 ESS: 3.9999999999271374 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.18494107743807475 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 50%|████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:05 (12.45 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1098 Avgℓobjective: -3738.783524947946 Temperature: 0.9998492896419403 ESS: 3.999999999954743 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.14867925559261697 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 58%|██████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:04 (13.25 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1031 Avgℓobjective: -3331.2496802944765 Temperature: 0.8909031788043871 ESS: 3.9995830203102836 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.4977805731771598 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 59%|██████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:04 (13.63 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1034 Avgℓobjective: -3427.289270972252 Temperature: 0.9168273035060777 ESS: 3.999631134679723 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.2905378674002341 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 59%|██████████████▉ | ETA: 0:00:04 (13.71 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 38 logobjective: -3500.9432050418386 Temperature: 0.9370266439430035 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.1829689302147037e-41 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 2 ℓH: -3501.361369093054                         Computing... 60%|███████████████ | ETA: 0:00:04 (13.99 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1039 Avgℓobjective: -3543.7790012666383 Temperature: 0.9478464369215823 ESS: 3.9998440933762636 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9521635175705738 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 60%|███████████████▏ | ETA: 0:00:04 (14.13 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1041 Avgℓobjective: -3576.8471360335607 Temperature: 0.9568927450589139 ESS: 3.9999948781290167 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.3131844966809956 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 61%|███████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:05 (14.47 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1043 Avgℓobjective: -3605.511951529005 Temperature: 0.9644288107273639 ESS: 3.999994780886925 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.4156902459978121 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 68%|█████████████████▏ | ETA: 0:00:03 (13.42 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1073 Avgℓobjective: -3731.5290208733713 Temperature: 0.9981670610575072 ESS: 3.9999999878775903 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.44786180247900764 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 71%|█████████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:03 (13.12 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 85 logobjective: -3735.143798316046 Temperature: 0.9993891206405656 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.29895404156453514 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -3736.1065180249516                         Computing... 74%|██████████████████▍ | ETA: 0:00:03 (12.89 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1093 Avgℓobjective: -3737.9706292451865 Temperature: 0.9997515449181605 ESS: 3.9999999978463494 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.5444982537116907 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 79%|███████████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:02 (12.12 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1016 Avgℓobjective: -2552.4330828061156 Temperature: 0.6456563062257954 ESS: 3.422393398272304 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8991758815545235 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 85%|█████████████████████▏ | ETA: 0:00:02 (12.66 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 39 logobjective: -3522.2981824349467 Temperature: 0.9426758241011313 accepted: true acceptancerate: 4.5546807038705375e-243 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3522.471149483947                         Computing... 85%|█████████████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:02 (12.82 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1040 Avgℓobjective: -3561.339787986829 Temperature: 0.9525741268224334 ESS: 3.999816310218835 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.0993587462564734 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 86%|█████████████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:01 (13.01 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1042 Avgℓobjective: -3591.425362465653 Temperature: 0.9608342772032357 ESS: 3.999957880053917 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.2757605046368099 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 86%|█████████████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:01 (13.14 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1043 Avgℓobjective: -3604.828095130678 Temperature: 0.9644288107273639 ESS: 3.99999902015652 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.5649958898835581 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 86%|█████████████████████▋ | ETA: 0:00:01 (13.25 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1045 Avgℓobjective: -3629.271237327359 Temperature: 0.9706877692486436 ESS: 3.9999944411198367 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.5391111261931235 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 87%|█████████████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:01 (13.45 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1047 Avgℓobjective: -3648.8817927752552 Temperature: 0.9758729785823308 ESS: 3.9999893605612606 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.4836676175580089 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 94%|███████████████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:01 (12.91 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1074 Avgℓobjective: -3732.762344985104 Temperature: 0.9983411989198255 ESS: 3.999999937524736 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.6117673069703455 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 96%|████████████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:00 (12.73 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1084 Avgℓobjective: -3736.33945612137 Temperature: 0.9993891206405656 ESS: 3.9999999874578114 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.7503161353454856 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 98%|████████████████████████▋| ETA: 0:00:00 (12.59 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 94 logobjective: -3735.3025736570007 Temperature: 0.9997515449181605 accepted: true acceptancerate: 4.18633405168156e-16 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -3737.6875779394454                         Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:10 (12.55 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1099 Avgℓobjective: -3737.9856827315293 Temperature: 0.9998636296729204 ESS: 3.999999999443175 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9089155567285022 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -4098.395, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.223. NUTS sampler had 53 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.556 (3) number of steps and depth of 0.711 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 47, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 6, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -4240.235, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3738.397. NUTS sampler had 51 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.767 (3) number of steps and depth of 0.833 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 42, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 9, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2092.83, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3734.939. NUTS sampler had 47 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.833 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.878 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 43, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 4, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -8745.287, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.284. NUTS sampler had 47 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.556 (3) number of steps and depth of 0.811 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 42, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 5, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -4093.29, variance: 30.459 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -3737.716, variance: 0.145 Total number of jittering steps: 192. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.564, 0.145, 0.454, 0.799, 0.946]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [1.0, 3.806, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 2: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -4081.176, variance: 83709.878 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -3738.42, variance: 2.191 Total number of jittering steps: 195. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.407, 0.011, 0.39, 0.676, 0.943]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.75, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [1.25, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 3: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -2087.519, variance: 29.908 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -3738.09, variance: 0.823 Total number of jittering steps: 196. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.523, 0.148, 0.437, 0.669, 0.959]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [2.546, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 4: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -8093.206, variance: 1.017982357e6 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -3737.986, variance: 0.382 Total number of jittering steps: 195. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.511, 0.057, 0.568, 0.823, 0.97]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [1.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.201 │ 0.308 │ 0.024 │ -0.345 │ -0.006 │ 0.153 │ 0.419 │ 0.817 │ 159.234 │ 161.926 │ 1.035 │ │ σ │ 9.508 │ 1.911 │ 0.471 │ 3.412 │ 9.765 │ 9.975 │ 10.151 │ 10.624 │ 37.747 │ 28.469 │ 1.083 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Computing... 0%| | ETA: 0:04:06 ( 0.31 s/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1100 Avgℓobjective: -937.7688287835126 Temperature: 0.289050497374996 ESS: 3.999999999910658 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.43461781368192964 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 8%|██ | ETA: 0:00:09 (11.54 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 132 logobjective: -1403.2895243209762 Temperature: 0.8909031788043871 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.830266189066085e-214 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1405.9887659118153                         Computing... 15%|███▊ | ETA: 0:00:05 ( 7.31 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 160 logobjective: -1562.7371940138698 Temperature: 0.9926084586557181 accepted: true acceptancerate: 2.3612739821344294e-39 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1565.752492921902                         Computing... 20%|█████ | ETA: 0:00:04 ( 6.09 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1179 Avgℓobjective: -1574.5281964084616 Temperature: 0.9989932291799144 ESS: 3.999999780893385 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.6178088613898959 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 27%|██████▉ | ETA: 0:00:03 ( 4.94 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 110 logobjective: -940.2227155423863 Temperature: 0.47502081252106 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.7211736816715422e-20 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -940.3502236105305                         Computing... 34%|████████▋ | ETA: 0:00:02 ( 4.31 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 138 logobjective: -1475.827566118762 Temperature: 0.9370266439430035 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.0 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1476.3645350168308                         Computing... 42%|██████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:02 ( 3.84 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1167 Avgℓobjective: -1569.881452742421 Temperature: 0.9966651926925867 ESS: 3.9999998194070914 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.6367470220499728 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 54%|█████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 3.27 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1116 Avgℓobjective: -1017.8081978695972 Temperature: 0.6456563062257954 ESS: 3.995436320454353 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.17526200740866021 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 64%|████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 3.02 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 157 logobjective: -1558.4588943502458 Temperature: 0.9900481981330957 accepted: true acceptancerate: 7.597687395685697e-31 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 2 ℓH: -1561.603323481573                         Computing... 73%|██████████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 2.83 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1191 Avgℓobjective: -1574.3574356209217 Temperature: 0.9996965529699712 ESS: 3.999999999094178 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9308458006557772 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 82%|████████████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 2.76 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 128 logobjective: -1330.9017645569556 Temperature: 0.8455347349164652 accepted: true acceptancerate: 8.498776520101329e-136 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1332.1293659885102                         Computing... 88%|█████████████████████▉ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 2.73 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 151 logobjective: -1546.497710421881 Temperature: 0.9820137900379085 accepted: true acceptancerate: 8.473941235119645e-210 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1546.7088791591386                         Computing... 94%|███████████████████████▍ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 2.70 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1173 Avgℓobjective: -1572.1323229162358 Temperature: 0.9981670610575072 ESS: 3.999999961234638 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.15248138229166958 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:02 ( 2.64 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1199 Avgℓobjective: -1574.1110214434111 Temperature: 0.9998636296729204 ESS: 3.9999999999258415 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9054270495970107 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -903.438, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1576.357. NUTS sampler had 45 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.689 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.9 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 39, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 6, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -928.707, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1575.285. NUTS sampler had 31 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.578 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.978 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 25, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 6, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -831.649, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1574.154. NUTS sampler had 49 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.611 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.822 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 37, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 12, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -788.049, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1574.505. NUTS sampler had 43 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.656 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.9 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 32, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 11, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1057.073, variance: 34.626 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1574.757, variance: 1.356 Total number of jittering steps: 125. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.567, 0.069, 0.419, 0.728, 0.974]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 6.55]. Quantiles for ESS: [2.386, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 2: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -879.491, variance: 1122.932 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1574.932, variance: 1.423 Total number of jittering steps: 186. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.542, 0.185, 0.614, 0.857, 0.992]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [2.967, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 3: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -826.988, variance: 136.81 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1574.63, variance: 0.22 Total number of jittering steps: 229. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.753, 0.13, 0.587, 0.83, 1.0]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [2.972, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 4: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -788.497, variance: 1.092 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1574.111, variance: 0.102 Total number of jittering steps: 150. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.545, 0.034, 0.366, 0.702, 0.979]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.992, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.031 │ 0.048 │ 0.003 │ -0.045 │ 0.006 │ 0.029 │ 0.049 │ 0.105 │ 321.709 │ 170.957 │ 1.007 │ │ σ │ 1.029 │ 0.124 │ 0.015 │ 0.969 │ 0.998 │ 1.014 │ 1.028 │ 1.185 │ 102.189 │ 44.807 │ 1.034 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Computing... 0%|▏ | ETA: 0:03:13 ( 0.49 s/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 1 logobjective: -1867.8799667514077 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.8663145909811866 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1867.8941454291996                         Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:01 ( 2.96 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 100 logobjective: -1868.7028090586434 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9999607625955212 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 15 ℓH: -1869.0950799838947 Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.993, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1868.032. NUTS sampler had 22 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 12.067 (47) number of steps and depth of 2.0 (5). Divergences in: Warmup: 22, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.954, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1867.938. NUTS sampler had 22 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 11.633 (47) number of steps and depth of 1.956 (5). Divergences in: Warmup: 22, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1868.704, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1868.629. NUTS sampler had 20 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 26.056 (7) number of steps and depth of 2.256 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 20, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1868.325, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1868.703. NUTS sampler had 18 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 10.844 (15) number of steps and depth of 2.0 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 18, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.134 │ 0.294 │ 0.092 │ -0.49 │ -0.055 │ 0.09 │ 0.362 │ 0.634 │ 10.454 │ 36.397 │ 1.38 │ │ σ │ 10.058 │ 0.257 │ 0.03 │ 9.566 │ 9.86 │ 10.002 │ 10.28 │ 10.474 │ 77.03 │ 173.527 │ 1.081 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Computing... 0%|▏ | ETA: 0:01:51 ( 0.28 s/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 101 logobjective: -1868.569334030872 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9986108298657382 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 31 ℓH: -1869.5546481329868                         Computing... 19%|████▊ | ETA: 0:00:03 ( 8.69 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 119 logobjective: -1868.0171079857655 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9999650546626672 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 7 ℓH: -1868.2115308392565                         Computing... 37%|█████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 5.15 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 138 logobjective: -1869.0238919322394 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9930377770873524 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 11 ℓH: -1871.4162552478658                         Computing... 68%|█████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 3.21 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 168 logobjective: -1867.974077242028 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9999345658314753 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 47 ℓH: -1868.2227352271957                         Computing... 99%|████████████████████████▊| ETA: 0:00:00 ( 2.45 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 200 logobjective: -1868.143423151628 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9902208602935414 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 15 ℓH: -1869.7446917412317                         Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:00 ( 2.44 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 200 logobjective: -1867.7840185398718 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9994690389044901 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 15 ℓH: -1868.74836988976 Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1868.856, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1868.143. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 18.6 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.622 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1868.474, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1868.244. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 29.756 (31) number of steps and depth of 4.311 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1869.062, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1867.972. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 25.244 (15) number of steps and depth of 4.056 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.788, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1867.784. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 20.4 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.644 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.262 │ 0.497 │ 0.056 │ -0.772 │ -0.093 │ 0.268 │ 0.595 │ 1.206 │ 76.912 │ 96.764 │ 1.048 │ │ σ │ 10.045 │ 0.305 │ 0.019 │ 9.518 │ 9.828 │ 10.024 │ 10.251 │ 10.641 │ 255.421 │ 272.288 │ 1.008 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Computing... 0%|▏ | ETA: 0:01:59 ( 0.30 s/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1000 Avgℓobjective: -1869.2856463891535 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9823001420538695 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 26%|██████▍ | ETA: 0:00:02 ( 7.95 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1025 Avgℓobjective: -1869.9891399739683 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.32584611095413935 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 38%|█████████▍ | ETA: 0:00:02 ( 6.22 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1037 Avgℓobjective: -1869.4650785684169 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8575433458381768 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 49%|████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 5.29 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1049 Avgℓobjective: -1869.8997372168744 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.7851883283142163 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 71%|█████████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 4.02 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1071 Avgℓobjective: -1870.0973055436712 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.372961320325167 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 98%|████████████████████████▌| ETA: 0:00:00 ( 3.18 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1097 Avgℓobjective: -1869.9875581451556 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.047673975555642456 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:01 ( 3.13 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1099 Avgℓobjective: -1869.9486230551076 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.6034591689537387 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1869.732, variance: 1.325 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1869.949, variance: 1.401 Total number of jittering steps: 117. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.418, 0.076, 0.322, 0.684, 0.928]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.243 │ 0.422 │ 0.044 │ -0.583 │ -0.06 │ 0.252 │ 0.559 │ 1.046 │ 94.139 │ 129.864 │ 1.014 │ │ σ │ 10.037 │ 0.34 │ 0.022 │ 9.4 │ 9.796 │ 10.038 │ 10.279 │ 10.655 │ 242.661 │ 189.737 │ 1.017 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Computing... 59%|██████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 0.43 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1159 Avgℓobjective: -787.3417158931118 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9874955636322837 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:00 ( 0.75 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1199 Avgℓobjective: -788.5307634639648 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8083091362250122 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -788.155, variance: 0.857 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -788.531, variance: 1.558 Total number of jittering steps: 201. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.067, 0.332, 0.625, 0.838, 0.959]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 7.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.017 │ 0.048 │ 0.005 │ -0.076 │ -0.015 │ 0.014 │ 0.053 │ 0.107 │ 95.393 │ 74.252 │ 1.024 │ │ σ │ 1.014 │ 0.028 │ 0.003 │ 0.97 │ 0.993 │ 1.011 │ 1.033 │ 1.075 │ 116.915 │ 82.666 │ 1.019 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Computing... 0%| | ETA: 0:07:50 ( 0.59 s/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1000 Avgℓobjective: -22973.66692718849 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: NaN generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 13%|███▎ | ETA: 0:00:09 (12.74 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1012 Avgℓobjective: -5168.1376392879065 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8788613764867206 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 23%|█████▊ | ETA: 0:00:13 (21.33 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1023 Avgℓobjective: -1884.8685887749925 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.506129419802925 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 24%|██████ | ETA: 0:00:13 (21.26 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 25 logobjective: -1927.6383185893078 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.0 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1928.3860460927772                         Computing... 25%|██████▎ | ETA: 0:00:13 (21.05 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1024 Avgℓobjective: -1871.2281856197565 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.09709702065402553 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 27%|██████▋ | ETA: 0:00:12 (20.61 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 27 logobjective: -2411.3519868759167 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.0 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -2411.432386488408                         Computing... 28%|██████▉ | ETA: 0:00:12 (20.47 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1027 Avgℓobjective: -2296.5882026155514 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.7904008126720904 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 31%|███████▉ | ETA: 0:00:11 (19.49 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 32 logobjective: -1871.5932612432116 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 5.716594442799785e-26 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1871.8860934946424                         Computing... 33%|████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:10 (19.13 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1032 Avgℓobjective: -2005.4584250700061 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.7416245150126219 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 34%|████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:10 (18.91 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 34 logobjective: -1867.9776675065475 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 4.937438138897089e-11 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1868.9814817542717                         Computing... 35%|████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:10 (18.93 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 35 logobjective: -1868.000097935767 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 8.717693941959408e-8 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1868.2834851836278                         Computing... 36%|█████████ | ETA: 0:00:10 (18.88 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 36 logobjective: -1867.961668373684 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.012315652566827177 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -1869.9734501355047                         Computing... 39%|█████████▋ | ETA: 0:00:09 (18.19 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 39 logobjective: -1868.9408868551802 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 5.956883216419828e-49 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1870.0115458442726                         Computing... 41%|██████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:08 (17.43 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 42 logobjective: -1868.025976571328 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 8.165028057941495e-48 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1869.4453549194398                         Computing... 43%|██████████▉ | ETA: 0:00:08 (16.95 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 44 logobjective: -1867.6787991713907 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 3.863171725109972e-23 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1870.3599990657647                         Computing... 45%|███████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:07 (16.64 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1044 Avgℓobjective: -1870.3050188662462 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.09975347837670212 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 47%|███████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:07 (16.33 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1046 Avgℓobjective: -1871.812002068143 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8359936340859602 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 49%|████████████▍ | ETA: 0:00:06 (15.78 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 50 logobjective: -1867.6508126435567 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.171817988876638e-9 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1868.4621235499421                         Computing... 52%|████████████▉ | ETA: 0:00:06 (15.41 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1051 Avgℓobjective: -1870.316417706771 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.3745567097440942 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 53%|█████████████▍ | ETA: 0:00:06 (15.14 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 54 logobjective: -1868.6215835642383 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.011482163132082812 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -1869.480412211389                         Computing... 55%|█████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:05 (14.87 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1055 Avgℓobjective: -1869.9846834751131 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.6702515777924359 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 57%|██████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:05 (14.75 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1056 Avgℓobjective: -1869.914196846471 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.02677939710870597 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 58%|██████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:05 (14.60 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1058 Avgℓobjective: -1869.527025136268 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.18861949672065043 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 60%|███████████████ | ETA: 0:00:05 (14.55 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1059 Avgℓobjective: -1869.6021303878736 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.20949809177766845 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 62%|███████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:04 (14.23 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1061 Avgℓobjective: -1870.0315383541981 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8364135666976844 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 64%|████████████████▏ | ETA: 0:00:04 (13.90 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1064 Avgℓobjective: -1870.362479442957 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9551424428717699 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 67%|████████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:04 (13.72 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1066 Avgℓobjective: -1870.1774672072181 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.5902660782564908 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 68%|█████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:03 (13.65 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1068 Avgℓobjective: -1869.7641212434883 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.21394136905768849 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 70%|█████████████████▍ | ETA: 0:00:03 (13.59 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1069 Avgℓobjective: -1869.3316032829052 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.5399753665720787 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 71%|█████████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:03 (13.53 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1070 Avgℓobjective: -1869.131595188217 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.4022544866652276 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 74%|██████████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:03 (13.21 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 74 logobjective: -1867.7744043294788 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 4.116993217868199e-12 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1869.0615926293385                         Computing... 76%|███████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:03 (13.16 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1075 Avgℓobjective: -1869.3190319340156 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.7646989066837069 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 78%|███████████████████▍ | ETA: 0:00:02 (13.12 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1077 Avgℓobjective: -1869.6356006201354 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.37869005573227454 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 79%|███████████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:02 (13.14 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 79 logobjective: -1868.2342868104863 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.31698375024167474 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 5 ℓH: -1869.0392682249621                         Computing... 81%|████████████████████▍ | ETA: 0:00:02 (12.97 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 82 logobjective: -1868.0354525023347 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.3901922453610942 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 5 ℓH: -1869.9109113095415                         Computing... 83%|████████████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:02 (12.93 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 84 logobjective: -1868.1816018009058 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.00045884782721772414 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1868.3313341431829                         Computing... 86%|█████████████████████▍ | ETA: 0:00:01 (12.78 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 86 logobjective: -1868.7886934410328 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.016297714749019653 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -1868.9132965534463                         Computing... 87%|█████████████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:01 (12.70 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1087 Avgℓobjective: -1869.6647802712248 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.21339706710026662 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 89%|██████████████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:01 (12.69 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1088 Avgℓobjective: -1869.334443765004 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.25340043833597925 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 91%|██████████████████████▋ | ETA: 0:00:01 (12.60 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 91 logobjective: -1868.4452961999682 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.715304105636998e-6 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -1871.3086152217666                         Computing... 92%|███████████████████████▏ | ETA: 0:00:01 (12.53 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1092 Avgℓobjective: -1869.1589955992797 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.7576908302782146 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 94%|███████████████████████▋ | ETA: 0:00:01 (12.45 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1094 Avgℓobjective: -1869.3800257312942 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.18115489668063758 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 97%|████████████████████████▎| ETA: 0:00:00 (12.28 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 98 logobjective: -1867.8259386589261 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.022758205788937745 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1867.9664162149925                         Computing... 99%|████████████████████████▊| ETA: 0:00:00 (12.21 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 100 logobjective: -1868.566393956627 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.3953594967027198e-7 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1869.6908662031165                         Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:09 (12.18 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1099 Avgℓobjective: -1869.5014787622765 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.04143695120250035 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -12953.685, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1868.566. NUTS sampler had 39 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 2.033 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.911 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 36, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 3, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -3981.108, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1867.754. NUTS sampler had 41 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.856 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.867 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 37, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 4, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -8673.705, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1868.127. NUTS sampler had 36 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 2.022 (3) number of steps and depth of 0.911 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 33, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 3, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -8959.703, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1869.123. NUTS sampler had 37 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 2.089 (3) number of steps and depth of 0.944 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 33, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 4, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -10426.685, variance: 7.272574302e6 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1871.63, variance: 0.353 Total number of jittering steps: 191. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.409, 0.145, 0.522, 0.72, 0.966]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 8.775]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 2: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -6122.054, variance: 1.5989613485e7 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1869.912, variance: 1.308 Total number of jittering steps: 265. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.326, 0.138, 0.495, 0.782, 0.966]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 3: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -8329.162, variance: 2.612735863e7 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1870.057, variance: 2.694 Total number of jittering steps: 239. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.489, 0.174, 0.561, 0.846, 0.977]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 4: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -6337.598, variance: 2.1188930828e7 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1869.501, variance: 0.572 Total number of jittering steps: 151. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.464, 0.133, 0.575, 0.835, 0.971]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 6.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.266 │ 0.428 │ 0.026 │ -0.533 │ 0.016 │ 0.202 │ 0.56 │ 1.162 │ 290.086 │ 97.004 │ 1.016 │ │ σ │ 9.25 │ 2.391 │ 0.365 │ 2.307 │ 9.675 │ 9.976 │ 10.221 │ 10.769 │ 115.568 │ 56.951 │ 1.04 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Computing... 0%| | ETA: 0:04:36 ( 0.35 s/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1100 Avgℓobjective: -1455.188153204078 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.11253800338883668 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 6%|█▌ | ETA: 0:00:13 (17.85 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 107 logobjective: -1214.4049691460295 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.0 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1215.0605004968072                         Computing... 9%|██▍ | ETA: 0:00:10 (13.12 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 110 logobjective: -783.0747687775068 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 4.981984261827632e-26 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -783.5262685594182                         Computing... 16%|████ | ETA: 0:00:06 ( 8.50 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1115 Avgℓobjective: -781.2859108566081 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.4130480027377732 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 31%|███████▊ | ETA: 0:00:03 ( 4.83 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1130 Avgℓobjective: -780.5820435605829 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.15545476376540418 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 46%|███████████▋ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 3.50 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1146 Avgℓobjective: -780.9463790641503 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.7748471644640769 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 62%|███████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 2.85 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1161 Avgℓobjective: -781.1568098213219 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.7398041238095487 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 81%|████████████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 2.33 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 181 logobjective: -780.4479035624187 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 3.9225249341188542e-53 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -780.7558144543988                         Computing... 99%|█████████████████████████| ETA: 0:00:00 ( 2.02 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 200 logobjective: -780.5046540630494 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 3.730016927877039e-38 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -780.722735377516                         Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:01 ( 2.03 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1199 Avgℓobjective: -780.8554534376754 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.3581336159018975 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -783.872, Avg. final ℓposterior: -780.544. NUTS sampler had 29 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.7 (1) number of steps and depth of 1.0 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 24, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 5, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -780.575, Avg. final ℓposterior: -780.196. NUTS sampler had 28 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.644 (1) number of steps and depth of 1.022 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 22, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 6, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -783.701, Avg. final ℓposterior: -780.206. NUTS sampler had 32 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.778 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.978 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 26, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 6, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -781.244, Avg. final ℓposterior: -780.505. NUTS sampler had 26 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.667 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.989 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 23, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 3, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -799.697, variance: 1339.984 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -781.666, variance: 2.061 Total number of jittering steps: 193. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.41, 0.199, 0.536, 0.798, 0.966]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 8.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 2: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -794.661, variance: 759.6 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -780.469, variance: 0.198 Total number of jittering steps: 121. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.289, 0.155, 0.54, 0.722, 0.957]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 3: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -789.035, variance: 277.561 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -780.76, variance: 0.366 Total number of jittering steps: 158. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.237, 0.267, 0.612, 0.848, 0.96]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 4.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 4: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -781.437, variance: 0.732 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -780.855, variance: 1.268 Total number of jittering steps: 94. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.585, -0.03, 0.253, 0.577, 0.906]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ -0.073 │ 0.041 │ 0.002 │ -0.15 │ -0.103 │ -0.077 │ -0.042 │ 0.006 │ 280.196 │ 299.249 │ 1.001 │ │ σ │ 0.999 │ 0.034 │ 0.002 │ 0.942 │ 0.981 │ 0.999 │ 1.021 │ 1.051 │ 239.341 │ 259.2 │ 1.012 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Computing... 0%|▏ | ETA: 0:03:30 ( 0.53 s/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 1 logobjective: -1868.1259984399285 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.25017795818851435 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -1868.5039789215746                         Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:01 ( 3.46 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 100 logobjective: -2044.0363103256977 Temperature: 0.5460980646457352 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9999354448413731 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 127 ℓH: -2044.5970601027022 Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1885.976, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2040.15. NUTS sampler had 22 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 18.689 (127) number of steps and depth of 2.122 (6). Divergences in: Warmup: 22, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1886.578, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2042.236. NUTS sampler had 27 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 15.611 (31) number of steps and depth of 2.089 (5). Divergences in: Warmup: 27, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1886.002, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2040.588. NUTS sampler had 29 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 20.589 (15) number of steps and depth of 2.111 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 29, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1885.84, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2044.036. NUTS sampler had 16 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 34.844 (127) number of steps and depth of 2.367 (6). Divergences in: Warmup: 16, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.208 │ 0.302 │ 0.068 │ -0.331 │ 0.055 │ 0.203 │ 0.296 │ 1.022 │ 15.415 │ 21.588 │ 1.263 │ │ σ │ 10.049 │ 0.307 │ 0.054 │ 9.586 │ 9.849 │ 9.995 │ 10.259 │ 10.626 │ 40.749 │ 20.094 │ 1.109 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Computing... 0%|▏ | ETA: 0:01:55 ( 0.29 s/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 101 logobjective: -2041.8451445979915 Temperature: 0.5465413282544795 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9997426135173805 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 111 ℓH: -2042.9628712872404                         Computing... 10%|██▌ | ETA: 0:00:06 (17.02 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 110 logobjective: -2056.950117031341 Temperature: 0.5505112720162764 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9999996957627548 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 127 ℓH: -2059.815008252285                         Computing... 19%|████▊ | ETA: 0:00:03 (10.41 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 120 logobjective: -2074.1444965745245 Temperature: 0.5548815705605304 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9998743166021502 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 31 ℓH: -2074.188569498768                         Computing... 40%|██████████▏ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 5.60 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 141 logobjective: -2107.0857830191017 Temperature: 0.5639213802039063 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9819208399274486 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 15 ℓH: -2108.189062303108                         Computing... 72%|██████████████████▏ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 3.49 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 173 logobjective: -2160.122419928672 Temperature: 0.577344562310272 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9915927736297709 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 31 ℓH: -2161.893445055675                         Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:01 ( 2.74 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 200 logobjective: -2199.555211194648 Temperature: 0.5883484625830675 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9868989599222585 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 23 ℓH: -2200.492433211325 Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2058.772, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2201.15. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 19.6 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.667 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2059.377, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2197.999. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 21.467 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.644 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2059.128, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2199.59. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 33.489 (3) number of steps and depth of 4.189 (2). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2058.129, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2199.555. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 35.911 (23) number of steps and depth of 4.089 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.311 │ 0.38 │ 0.037 │ -0.465 │ 0.069 │ 0.301 │ 0.508 │ 1.142 │ 112.346 │ 85.324 │ 1.018 │ │ σ │ 10.048 │ 0.289 │ 0.022 │ 9.536 │ 9.855 │ 10.04 │ 10.25 │ 10.643 │ 174.746 │ 193.803 │ 1.014 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Computing... 0%|▏ | ETA: 0:02:07 ( 0.32 s/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1000 Avgℓobjective: -1869.1138320694351 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.7306022417320018 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 26%|██████▍ | ETA: 0:00:02 ( 7.48 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1025 Avgℓobjective: -1914.6317266609885 Temperature: 0.5120650453944637 ESS: 3.999999792735914 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.579365421444566 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 46%|███████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 5.32 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1045 Avgℓobjective: -1950.025391397898 Temperature: 0.5215071279810213 ESS: 3.999998636718204 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.08023326155781413 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 56%|█████████████▉ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 4.92 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1055 Avgℓobjective: -1967.385740239417 Temperature: 0.5261594286324767 ESS: 3.9999984738401886 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8280988959011499 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 78%|███████████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 3.85 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1078 Avgℓobjective: -2007.242424604999 Temperature: 0.5366887817639441 ESS: 3.999998922238822 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.3613126441434197 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 99%|████████████████████████▊| ETA: 0:00:00 ( 3.32 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1098 Avgℓobjective: -2039.7982394245196 Temperature: 0.5456543677392305 ESS: 3.999999894794339 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.4095831681107514 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:01 ( 3.30 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1099 Avgℓobjective: -2043.3361829315572 Temperature: 0.5460980646457352 ESS: 3.9999999407483733 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.4759801679191281 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1887.914, variance: 0.14 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -2043.336, variance: 6.201 Total number of jittering steps: 120. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.421, 0.008, 0.354, 0.742, 0.974]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.775]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.275 │ 0.357 │ 0.035 │ -0.439 │ 0.05 │ 0.3 │ 0.538 │ 0.889 │ 110.101 │ 99.456 │ 1.046 │ │ σ │ 10.046 │ 0.306 │ 0.018 │ 9.47 │ 9.808 │ 10.048 │ 10.253 │ 10.652 │ 269.321 │ 175.906 │ 1.026 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Computing... 52%|█████████████ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 0.49 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1151 Avgℓobjective: -891.5097626038054 Temperature: 0.5685830121493418 ESS: 3.99999901004946 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.07846207212673126 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:00 ( 1.15 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1199 Avgℓobjective: -922.2384485679237 Temperature: 0.5883484625830675 ESS: 3.9999982426125498 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.11059342999140956 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -864.827, variance: 2.741 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -922.238, variance: 0.106 Total number of jittering steps: 226. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.455, 0.104, 0.432, 0.769, 1.0]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ -0.009 │ 0.042 │ 0.003 │ -0.089 │ -0.033 │ -0.007 │ 0.017 │ 0.078 │ 146.136 │ 140.362 │ 1.061 │ │ σ │ 1.0 │ 0.03 │ 0.003 │ 0.947 │ 0.975 │ 0.999 │ 1.021 │ 1.06 │ 97.542 │ 74.518 │ 1.098 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Computing... 0%| | ETA: 0:07:39 ( 0.57 s/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1000 Avgℓobjective: -24126.353531121742 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: NaN generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 16%|████▏ | ETA: 0:00:11 (17.20 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1016 Avgℓobjective: -1905.9573096385195 Temperature: 0.5077555394856328 ESS: 3.9968735190035494 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8997212056099999 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 18%|████▌ | ETA: 0:00:12 (17.62 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1017 Avgℓobjective: -3275.046778748253 Temperature: 0.5082362469666039 ESS: 2.5102397380618324 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.4292760368039906 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 19%|████▊ | ETA: 0:00:11 (17.48 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1018 Avgℓobjective: -3027.007152610879 Temperature: 0.5087164850066754 ESS: 3.270776833411365 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9545074175323276 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 20%|█████ | ETA: 0:00:12 (19.57 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1020 Avgℓobjective: -1913.649382652812 Temperature: 0.5096755545974264 ESS: 3.999324134460859 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9430801975237519 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 21%|█████▎ | ETA: 0:00:14 (22.79 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 21 logobjective: -2207.3064285373043 Temperature: 0.5096755545974264 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.0 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -2209.5778102347135                         Computing... 23%|█████▊ | ETA: 0:00:15 (24.22 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1022 Avgℓobjective: -1909.1901366758618 Temperature: 0.510632751920023 ESS: 3.9539628126471156 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.6803215086639937 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 24%|██████▏ | ETA: 0:00:15 (23.97 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 25 logobjective: -1911.8613842815503 Temperature: 0.5115880806294534 accepted: true acceptancerate: 6.85269356157636e-14 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -1914.3121995924657                         Computing... 25%|██████▎ | ETA: 0:00:15 (24.66 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1024 Avgℓobjective: -2048.7775228163327 Temperature: 0.5115880806294534 ESS: 3.860937274735269 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9651056119124091 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 28%|██████▉ | ETA: 0:00:14 (24.67 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1027 Avgℓobjective: -1919.2193802201261 Temperature: 0.5130175780216433 ESS: 3.9999998416833336 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.1771018098288037 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 28%|███████ | ETA: 0:00:14 (24.84 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1027 Avgℓobjective: -2055.2398238904607 Temperature: 0.5130175780216433 ESS: 3.861500997601111 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9634024483971786 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 32%|████████ | ETA: 0:00:12 (22.52 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1031 Avgℓobjective: -1925.3133317278712 Temperature: 0.514917068385434 ESS: 3.9999980316727792 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.4832238964671106 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 36%|█████████ | ETA: 0:00:10 (20.08 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1036 Avgℓobjective: -1933.880878706881 Temperature: 0.5172810157916077 ESS: 3.999996884404917 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.03615672709150397 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 42%|██████████▋ | ETA: 0:00:08 (17.44 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1042 Avgℓobjective: -1946.5239706818243 Temperature: 0.5201025509740036 ESS: 3.9999978309479443 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.3859557590106564 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 50%|████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:06 (15.04 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 51 logobjective: -1956.8136384144632 Temperature: 0.5238389601481868 accepted: true acceptancerate: 5.398949808552502e-19 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1958.276562809791                         Computing... 58%|██████████████▍ | ETA: 0:00:05 (13.36 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 58 logobjective: -1969.0780303638678 Temperature: 0.5270844466088458 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.0013098289531608702 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -1970.0465011863514                         Computing... 64%|███████████████▉ | ETA: 0:00:04 (12.34 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1063 Avgℓobjective: -1981.5227837405478 Temperature: 0.5298486798705302 ESS: 3.9999946963535264 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.13010046449245577 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 70%|█████████████████▍ | ETA: 0:00:03 (11.46 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1069 Avgℓobjective: -1991.7261719014607 Temperature: 0.5325967559441706 ESS: 3.9999987072404735 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.7038472789466493 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 76%|██████████████████▉ | ETA: 0:00:02 (10.71 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 76 logobjective: -1999.8531345605886 Temperature: 0.535328769269961 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.024769240574374424 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -2002.0004613192584                         Computing... 82%|████████████████████▍ | ETA: 0:00:01 (10.10 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 82 logobjective: -2010.113633580784 Temperature: 0.5380448137360843 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.0003320443909967048 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -2010.3584031012874                         Computing... 87%|█████████████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 9.60 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1087 Avgℓobjective: -2021.4462616566711 Temperature: 0.5407449826819386 ESS: 3.9999986994354444 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.008222158066277074 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 93%|███████████████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 9.17 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1092 Avgℓobjective: -2030.1603598259358 Temperature: 0.5429830632990977 ESS: 3.9999990716331593 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.7167653865273345 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 98%|████████████████████████▌| ETA: 0:00:00 ( 8.81 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 99 logobjective: -2039.051815568205 Temperature: 0.5456543677392305 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.0012033957570070902 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -2039.2734782648938                         Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:06 ( 8.70 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1099 Avgℓobjective: -2041.451788801196 Temperature: 0.5460980646457352 ESS: 3.9999998502975127 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8075792018177325 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -5178.822, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2039.855. NUTS sampler had 30 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 2.1 (3) number of steps and depth of 0.956 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 28, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 2, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -8730.038, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2039.972. NUTS sampler had 29 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 2.133 (6) number of steps and depth of 1.0 (2). Divergences in: Warmup: 28, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 1, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -6330.262, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2040.178. NUTS sampler had 36 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 2.056 (7) number of steps and depth of 0.978 (2). Divergences in: Warmup: 31, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 5, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -6549.108, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2039.921. NUTS sampler had 36 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.711 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.867 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 33, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 3, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -5052.002, variance: 2.231030527e6 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -2041.752, variance: 0.618 Total number of jittering steps: 137. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.266, 0.248, 0.557, 0.762, 0.975]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 6.55]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.229, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 2: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -7488.147, variance: 402225.899 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -2042.68, variance: 2.452 Total number of jittering steps: 151. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.275, 0.165, 0.55, 0.744, 0.967]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 5.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.42, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 3: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -5683.811, variance: 2.837471615e6 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -2042.067, variance: 0.741 Total number of jittering steps: 179. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.302, 0.213, 0.562, 0.785, 0.958]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 6.775]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.446, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 4: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -6504.139, variance: 114464.623 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -2041.452, variance: 0.054 Total number of jittering steps: 219. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.524, 0.054, 0.398, 0.798, 0.973]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.253, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.224 │ 0.397 │ 0.04 │ -0.491 │ -0.031 │ 0.215 │ 0.484 │ 1.012 │ 113.829 │ 147.77 │ 1.051 │ │ σ │ 9.706 │ 2.796 │ 0.234 │ 3.41 │ 9.735 │ 9.986 │ 10.212 │ 10.627 │ 114.527 │ 43.327 │ 1.027 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Computing... 0%| | ETA: 0:04:34 ( 0.34 s/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1100 Avgℓobjective: -1146.324842775106 Temperature: 0.5465413282544795 ESS: 3.9999987773896986 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.18933763336825563 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 13%|███▎ | ETA: 0:00:05 ( 7.75 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1112 Avgℓobjective: -864.2852721218276 Temperature: 0.551826847945094 ESS: 3.9999936734186834 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.05696860653851776 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 28%|███████ | ETA: 0:00:02 ( 4.01 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 128 logobjective: -874.7610070216258 Temperature: 0.5583471955325556 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.1691359729145061e-256 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -876.5803271015559                         Computing... 44%|███████████▏ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 2.81 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1144 Avgℓobjective: -885.7489159855052 Temperature: 0.5656223186747298 ESS: 3.999996173760569 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.03126467902309782 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 61%|███████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 2.28 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1160 Avgℓobjective: -896.1177462481527 Temperature: 0.5723599851931211 ESS: 3.999997974462837 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.11813552637473157 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 77%|███████████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 1.98 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 177 logobjective: -906.6876595868538 Temperature: 0.5789931432340637 accepted: true acceptancerate: 9.642805391040638e-25 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 2 ℓH: -907.0363783262002                         Computing... 92%|███████████████████████▏ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 1.81 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 193 logobjective: -915.5704851665375 Temperature: 0.5855234138368042 accepted: true acceptancerate: 4.3847461134775366e-32 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -916.1721683579829                         Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:01 ( 1.73 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1199 Avgℓobjective: -920.6526910343398 Temperature: 0.5883484625830675 ESS: 3.999999455881023 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.34237208087756976 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -862.338, Avg. final ℓposterior: -922.399. NUTS sampler had 34 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.767 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.978 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 27, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 7, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -863.163, Avg. final ℓposterior: -923.97. NUTS sampler had 36 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.711 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.989 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 31, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 5, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -869.256, Avg. final ℓposterior: -919.903. NUTS sampler had 29 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.567 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.967 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 23, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 6, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -861.543, Avg. final ℓposterior: -920.379. NUTS sampler had 49 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.844 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.944 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 42, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 7, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -862.919, variance: 2.474 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -920.467, variance: 0.849 Total number of jittering steps: 106. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.441, 0.14, 0.45, 0.672, 0.962]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 2: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -862.703, variance: 0.352 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -921.865, variance: 3.238 Total number of jittering steps: 97. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.687, -0.008, 0.269, 0.569, 0.931]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 3: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -863.255, variance: 5.663 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -920.483, variance: 0.489 Total number of jittering steps: 120. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.665, 0.039, 0.352, 0.735, 0.925]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 4: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -861.968, variance: 0.131 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -920.653, variance: 0.638 Total number of jittering steps: 207. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.61, -0.045, 0.42, 0.781, 0.974]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ -0.033 │ 0.041 │ 0.003 │ -0.116 │ -0.061 │ -0.032 │ -0.003 │ 0.043 │ 222.887 │ 231.526 │ 1.011 │ │ σ │ 1.002 │ 0.031 │ 0.002 │ 0.943 │ 0.979 │ 1.0 │ 1.024 │ 1.059 │ 229.834 │ 289.027 │ 1.014 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -382.679, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2253.102. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 15.092 (23) number of steps and depth of 3.308 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -383.528, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2253.507. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 15.572 (23) number of steps and depth of 3.36 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -383.993, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2253.653. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 14.756 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.262 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -384.153, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2253.756. NUTS sampler had 1 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 15.524 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.352 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 1, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.181 │ 0.536 │ 0.032 │ -0.927 │ -0.175 │ 0.202 │ 0.531 │ 1.185 │ 299.283 │ 249.612 │ 1.024 │ │ σ │ 10.308 │ 0.507 │ 0.052 │ 9.116 │ 10.038 │ 10.332 │ 10.618 │ 11.208 │ 111.471 │ 83.876 │ 1.025 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 400. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 400 Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2258.211, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.639. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 16.13 (7) number of steps and depth of 3.445 (2). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2257.081, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3737.115. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 18.125 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.592 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2256.878, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3736.134. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 15.385 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.4 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2256.693, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.522. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 14.62 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.342 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.181 │ 0.358 │ 0.024 │ -0.515 │ -0.076 │ 0.189 │ 0.424 │ 0.905 │ 217.664 │ 335.817 │ 1.026 │ │ σ │ 10.094 │ 0.281 │ 0.043 │ 9.594 │ 9.89 │ 10.083 │ 10.281 │ 10.704 │ 43.749 │ 602.8 │ 1.064 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -386.829, variance: 3.98 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -2256.246, variance: 0.57 Total number of jittering steps: 545. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.622, 0.06, 0.358, 0.669, 0.92]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.869, 3.988, 3.995, 3.998, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.191 │ 0.541 │ 0.035 │ -0.966 │ -0.139 │ 0.223 │ 0.563 │ 1.185 │ 253.726 │ 302.163 │ 1.028 │ │ σ │ 10.323 │ 0.519 │ 0.05 │ 9.046 │ 10.058 │ 10.352 │ 10.629 │ 11.261 │ 124.543 │ 90.461 │ 1.035 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1934.497, variance: 457.537 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1569.273, variance: 1.06 Total number of jittering steps: 562. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.783, 0.009, 0.368, 0.69, 0.934]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.939, 3.994, 3.998, 3.999, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.086 │ 0.068 │ 0.003 │ -0.001 │ 0.057 │ 0.083 │ 0.107 │ 0.162 │ 48.63 │ 381.837 │ 1.062 │ │ σ │ 1.082 │ 0.728 │ 0.04 │ 0.949 │ 0.986 │ 1.003 │ 1.021 │ 1.06 │ 775.443 │ 642.105 │ 1.015 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel SMC2Kernel Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 97.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -158.388, variance: 4.156 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -972.338, variance: 1.3 Total number of jittering steps: 89. Rejuvenations on average every 33.333 step, every 20.833 steps in first half, every 83.333 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.336, -0.117, 0.011, 0.168, 0.562]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.35, 4.0, 6.0, 9.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [2.977, 3.426, 3.682, 3.877, 3.988] for 4 chains. ┌────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ1 │ -0.323 │ 0.836 │ 0.236 │ -2.22 │ -0.635 │ -0.273 │ 0.262 │ 0.912 │ 10.778 │ 46.267 │ 1.291 │ │ μ2 │ 1.953 │ 0.091 │ 0.014 │ 1.765 │ 1.886 │ 1.945 │ 2.027 │ 2.102 │ 38.335 │ 30.142 │ 1.261 │ │ σ1 │ 2.004 │ 0.497 │ 0.076 │ 1.414 │ 1.79 │ 1.933 │ 2.151 │ 3.089 │ 34.574 │ 33.927 │ 1.082 │ │ σ2 │ 0.985 │ 0.061 │ 0.01 │ 0.839 │ 0.96 │ 0.981 │ 1.028 │ 1.106 │ 31.678 │ 45.277 │ 1.17 │ │ p1 │ 0.136 │ 0.049 │ 0.018 │ 0.057 │ 0.095 │ 0.132 │ 0.177 │ 0.24 │ 8.033 │ 51.341 │ 1.454 │ │ p2 │ 0.864 │ 0.049 │ 0.018 │ 0.76 │ 0.823 │ 0.868 │ 0.905 │ 0.943 │ 8.033 │ 20.781 │ 1.454 │ └────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel SMC2Kernel Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 98.6%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -975.086, variance: 1.418 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1587.685, variance: 1.246 Total number of jittering steps: 60. Rejuvenations on average every 71.429 step, every 50.0 steps in first half, every 125.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [0.031, 0.36, 0.454, 0.494, 0.757]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [3.6, 8.5, 10.0, 10.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.077, 3.353, 3.653, 3.805, 3.976] for 4 chains. ┌────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ1 │ -0.075 │ 0.117 │ 0.028 │ -0.286 │ -0.127 │ -0.073 │ -0.041 │ 0.21 │ 19.997 │ 21.871 │ 1.166 │ │ μ2 │ 0.804 │ 0.537 │ 0.22 │ -0.221 │ 0.289 │ 0.776 │ 1.25 │ 1.889 │ 5.986 │ 8.815 │ 1.809 │ │ σ1 │ 0.984 │ 0.145 │ 0.021 │ 0.834 │ 0.91 │ 0.96 │ 1.043 │ 1.079 │ 9.369 │ 38.388 │ 1.376 │ │ σ2 │ 0.94 │ 0.087 │ 0.022 │ 0.817 │ 0.851 │ 0.925 │ 0.994 │ 1.096 │ 14.796 │ NaN │ 1.294 │ │ p1 │ 0.782 │ 0.125 │ 0.027 │ 0.55 │ 0.738 │ 0.802 │ 0.861 │ 0.914 │ 9.67 │ NaN │ 1.333 │ │ p2 │ 0.218 │ 0.125 │ 0.027 │ 0.086 │ 0.139 │ 0.198 │ 0.262 │ 0.45 │ 9.67 │ 10.794 │ 1.333 │ └────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -111.004, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2253.041. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 15.252 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.344 (5). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -110.669, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2253.044. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 15.624 (19) number of steps and depth of 3.356 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -111.115, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2253.771. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 15.62 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.336 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -110.614, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2253.026. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.624 (7) number of steps and depth of 3.468 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.225 │ 0.541 │ 0.032 │ -0.841 │ -0.115 │ 0.219 │ 0.553 │ 1.329 │ 289.952 │ 381.955 │ 1.03 │ │ σ │ 10.315 │ 0.534 │ 0.053 │ 9.025 │ 10.034 │ 10.331 │ 10.658 │ 11.284 │ 120.301 │ 80.088 │ 1.039 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 400. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 400 Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -652.4, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.876. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 15.35 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.37 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -652.592, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.681. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.895 (19) number of steps and depth of 3.52 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -652.279, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3737.594. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.1 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.535 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -652.692, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3737.473. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.52 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.475 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.143 │ 0.348 │ 0.024 │ -0.552 │ -0.082 │ 0.146 │ 0.362 │ 0.873 │ 211.032 │ 238.41 │ 1.01 │ │ σ │ 10.091 │ 0.284 │ 0.039 │ 9.571 │ 9.899 │ 10.073 │ 10.269 │ 10.693 │ 55.002 │ 534.63 │ 1.057 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -111.414, variance: 0.028 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -2255.928, variance: 0.204 Total number of jittering steps: 533. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.601, -0.018, 0.293, 0.659, 0.94]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.896, 3.988, 3.995, 3.998, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.204 │ 0.559 │ 0.04 │ -0.88 │ -0.169 │ 0.186 │ 0.559 │ 1.324 │ 184.205 │ 426.84 │ 1.023 │ │ σ │ 10.288 │ 0.529 │ 0.05 │ 9.143 │ 9.997 │ 10.307 │ 10.607 │ 11.263 │ 123.353 │ 93.784 │ 1.029 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -553.326, variance: 128.556 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1560.208, variance: 0.473 Total number of jittering steps: 651. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.594, -0.001, 0.389, 0.701, 0.945]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 4.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.956, 3.996, 3.998, 3.999, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.021 │ 0.066 │ 0.002 │ -0.052 │ -0.002 │ 0.023 │ 0.046 │ 0.09 │ 167.631 │ 456.364 │ 1.038 │ │ σ │ 1.076 │ 0.681 │ 0.039 │ 0.956 │ 0.989 │ 1.008 │ 1.031 │ 1.099 │ 14.676 │ 106.854 │ 1.187 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel SMC2Kernel Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 96.8%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -45.835, variance: 0.188 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -971.145, variance: 1.644 Total number of jittering steps: 93. Rejuvenations on average every 31.25 step, every 19.231 steps in first half, every 83.333 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.217, -0.093, 0.029, 0.249, 0.572]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.375, 3.75, 5.5, 8.5, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [2.984, 3.458, 3.66, 3.824, 3.992] for 4 chains. ┌────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ1 │ -0.696 │ 0.882 │ 0.215 │ -2.821 │ -1.092 │ -0.778 │ -0.028 │ 0.841 │ 23.115 │ 12.23 │ 1.312 │ │ μ2 │ 1.924 │ 0.065 │ 0.012 │ 1.816 │ 1.874 │ 1.908 │ 1.962 │ 2.083 │ 30.941 │ 52.577 │ 1.084 │ │ σ1 │ 1.889 │ 0.645 │ 0.181 │ 1.054 │ 1.485 │ 1.768 │ 2.044 │ 3.044 │ 7.806 │ 11.605 │ 1.452 │ │ σ2 │ 0.992 │ 0.069 │ 0.017 │ 0.874 │ 0.939 │ 0.996 │ 1.02 │ 1.15 │ 13.686 │ NaN │ 1.231 │ │ p1 │ 0.109 │ 0.036 │ 0.009 │ 0.053 │ 0.085 │ 0.111 │ 0.121 │ 0.189 │ 16.339 │ 18.177 │ 1.223 │ │ p2 │ 0.891 │ 0.036 │ 0.009 │ 0.811 │ 0.879 │ 0.889 │ 0.915 │ 0.947 │ 16.339 │ 56.762 │ 1.223 │ └────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel SMC2Kernel Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 98.2%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -281.856, variance: 0.212 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1560.447, variance: 2.922 Total number of jittering steps: 70. Rejuvenations on average every 55.556 step, every 35.714 steps in first half, every 125.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.343, -0.108, 0.617, 0.929, 0.946]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.4, 6.0, 10.0, 10.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.047, 3.387, 3.676, 3.874, 3.991] for 4 chains. ┌────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ1 │ -0.481 │ 0.142 │ 0.059 │ -0.679 │ -0.633 │ -0.445 │ -0.351 │ -0.225 │ 6.428 │ 17.865 │ 1.776 │ │ μ2 │ 0.796 │ 0.218 │ 0.083 │ 0.478 │ 0.609 │ 0.804 │ 0.967 │ 1.164 │ 7.283 │ 22.297 │ 1.524 │ │ σ1 │ 0.777 │ 0.075 │ 0.02 │ 0.687 │ 0.714 │ 0.78 │ 0.835 │ 0.905 │ 10.08 │ 19.35 │ 1.389 │ │ σ2 │ 0.757 │ 0.077 │ 0.028 │ 0.625 │ 0.72 │ 0.741 │ 0.795 │ 0.921 │ 6.228 │ 9.312 │ 1.777 │ │ p1 │ 0.599 │ 0.122 │ 0.049 │ 0.431 │ 0.474 │ 0.645 │ 0.716 │ 0.788 │ 6.971 │ 17.614 │ 1.645 │ │ p2 │ 0.401 │ 0.122 │ 0.049 │ 0.212 │ 0.284 │ 0.355 │ 0.526 │ 0.569 │ 6.971 │ 10.202 │ 1.645 │ └────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -191.383, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1126.935. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.812 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.52 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -191.484, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1126.896. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 16.876 (7) number of steps and depth of 3.486 (2). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -191.351, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1127.348. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 16.784 (7) number of steps and depth of 3.446 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -194.109, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1126.555. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.224 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.462 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.209 │ 0.721 │ 0.05 │ -1.161 │ -0.281 │ 0.207 │ 0.698 │ 1.591 │ 212.469 │ 554.496 │ 1.013 │ │ σ │ 10.351 │ 0.646 │ 0.055 │ 8.955 │ 9.98 │ 10.359 │ 10.747 │ 11.585 │ 154.01 │ 84.93 │ 1.033 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 400. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 400 Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1128.317, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1868.94. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 16.14 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.455 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1129.522, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1873.406. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 14.2 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.305 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1128.321, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1868.269. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 15.51 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.402 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1128.285, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1868.842. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 15.695 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.402 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.152 │ 0.491 │ 0.027 │ -0.776 │ -0.177 │ 0.169 │ 0.462 │ 1.108 │ 353.851 │ 416.429 │ 1.015 │ │ σ │ 10.104 │ 0.373 │ 0.029 │ 9.4 │ 9.853 │ 10.08 │ 10.347 │ 10.863 │ 190.712 │ 772.07 │ 1.027 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -193.287, variance: 0.111 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1128.993, variance: 0.646 Total number of jittering steps: 541. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.558, 0.03, 0.371, 0.664, 0.939]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.934, 3.994, 3.998, 3.999, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.154 │ 0.747 │ 0.043 │ -1.452 │ -0.309 │ 0.197 │ 0.668 │ 1.54 │ 307.26 │ 407.431 │ 1.026 │ │ σ │ 10.36 │ 0.67 │ 0.051 │ 8.771 │ 10.005 │ 10.378 │ 10.76 │ 11.636 │ 199.001 │ 98.323 │ 1.037 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -802.039, variance: 35301.894 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -774.329, variance: 2.253 Total number of jittering steps: 558. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.628, -0.016, 0.341, 0.664, 0.908]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.97, 3.997, 3.999, 3.999, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.023 │ 0.057 │ 0.003 │ -0.074 │ -0.013 │ 0.021 │ 0.057 │ 0.125 │ 252.679 │ 627.963 │ 1.026 │ │ σ │ 1.0 │ 0.291 │ 0.009 │ 0.909 │ 0.96 │ 0.984 │ 1.008 │ 1.069 │ 596.68 │ 399.207 │ 1.018 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel SMC2Kernel Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 98.6%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -82.632, variance: 21.676 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -486.137, variance: 1.118 Total number of jittering steps: 49. Rejuvenations on average every 71.429 step, every 41.667 steps in first half, every 250.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.283, -0.11, 0.148, 0.181, 0.228]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [5.0, 5.5, 6.0, 8.5, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.074, 3.5, 3.706, 3.868, 3.994] for 4 chains. ┌────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ1 │ -0.95 │ 1.292 │ 0.346 │ -3.774 │ -1.293 │ -0.809 │ -0.049 │ 0.468 │ 12.873 │ 21.982 │ 1.448 │ │ μ2 │ 1.926 │ 0.1 │ 0.029 │ 1.622 │ 1.896 │ 1.945 │ 1.98 │ 2.038 │ 14.934 │ 18.859 │ 1.437 │ │ σ1 │ 2.023 │ 0.987 │ 0.191 │ 0.994 │ 1.511 │ 1.759 │ 2.103 │ 5.885 │ 30.544 │ 38.903 │ 1.434 │ │ σ2 │ 0.996 │ 0.075 │ 0.011 │ 0.867 │ 0.952 │ 0.982 │ 1.01 │ 1.144 │ 39.974 │ 36.13 │ 1.391 │ │ p1 │ 0.103 │ 0.045 │ 0.015 │ 0.016 │ 0.063 │ 0.111 │ 0.128 │ 0.188 │ 10.048 │ 38.32 │ 1.356 │ │ p2 │ 0.897 │ 0.045 │ 0.015 │ 0.812 │ 0.872 │ 0.889 │ 0.937 │ 0.984 │ 10.048 │ 14.412 │ 1.356 │ └────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel SMC2Kernel Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 98.4%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -486.785, variance: 1.106 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -786.107, variance: 3.216 Total number of jittering steps: 80. Rejuvenations on average every 62.5 step, every 35.714 steps in first half, every 250.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [0.108, 0.18, 0.743, 0.892, 0.995]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [10.0, 10.0, 10.0, 10.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.037, 3.42, 3.7, 3.936, 3.995] for 4 chains. ┌────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ1 │ -0.147 │ 0.192 │ 0.045 │ -0.69 │ -0.186 │ -0.127 │ -0.081 │ 0.343 │ 11.985 │ 14.395 │ 1.239 │ │ μ2 │ 1.303 │ 0.524 │ 0.22 │ 0.439 │ 0.891 │ 1.61 │ 1.749 │ 1.98 │ 7.133 │ NaN │ 1.67 │ │ σ1 │ 1.043 │ 0.306 │ 0.055 │ 0.755 │ 0.917 │ 0.943 │ 1.009 │ 2.103 │ 32.222 │ 17.017 │ 1.563 │ │ σ2 │ 1.155 │ 0.189 │ 0.041 │ 0.781 │ 0.982 │ 1.248 │ 1.268 │ 1.442 │ 19.344 │ 10.675 │ 1.179 │ │ p1 │ 0.715 │ 0.27 │ 0.086 │ 0.111 │ 0.692 │ 0.799 │ 0.922 │ 0.969 │ 7.477 │ NaN │ 1.493 │ │ p2 │ 0.285 │ 0.27 │ 0.086 │ 0.031 │ 0.078 │ 0.201 │ 0.308 │ 0.889 │ 7.477 │ 9.362 │ 1.493 │ └────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -191.383, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1563.149. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 16.924 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.452 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -192.231, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1561.608. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 13.96 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.26 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -196.016, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1562.279. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 15.8 (23) number of steps and depth of 3.38 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -191.59, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1561.289. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 14.896 (23) number of steps and depth of 3.316 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.229 │ 0.697 │ 0.033 │ -1.152 │ -0.198 │ 0.247 │ 0.65 │ 1.6 │ 444.527 │ 496.32 │ 1.044 │ │ σ │ 10.337 │ 0.633 │ 0.055 │ 8.859 │ 10.0 │ 10.338 │ 10.713 │ 11.568 │ 156.273 │ 86.143 │ 1.054 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 400. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 400 Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1564.529, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3105.465. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 14.88 (7) number of steps and depth of 3.392 (2). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1564.307, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3106.458. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 14.515 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.332 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1564.512, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3107.165. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 15.745 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.42 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1564.812, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3105.582. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 14.33 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.332 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.146 │ 0.427 │ 0.026 │ -0.762 │ -0.116 │ 0.148 │ 0.432 │ 0.97 │ 283.49 │ 316.048 │ 1.017 │ │ σ │ 10.086 │ 0.296 │ 0.026 │ 9.557 │ 9.889 │ 10.074 │ 10.281 │ 10.709 │ 145.866 │ 495.055 │ 1.038 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -193.907, variance: 0.947 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1564.105, variance: 0.929 Total number of jittering steps: 529. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.624, -0.005, 0.317, 0.613, 0.929]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.933, 3.994, 3.997, 3.999, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.175 │ 0.685 │ 0.038 │ -1.339 │ -0.246 │ 0.207 │ 0.629 │ 1.398 │ 366.521 │ 301.923 │ 1.031 │ │ σ │ 10.319 │ 0.634 │ 0.049 │ 8.977 │ 9.974 │ 10.34 │ 10.689 │ 11.57 │ 176.398 │ 88.909 │ 1.047 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1274.41, variance: 8167.121 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1361.256, variance: 0.883 Total number of jittering steps: 629. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.692, 0.042, 0.413, 0.73, 0.96]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.948, 3.996, 3.998, 3.999, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ -0.036 │ 0.05 │ 0.002 │ -0.121 │ -0.063 │ -0.035 │ -0.008 │ 0.041 │ 199.72 │ 640.749 │ 1.04 │ │ σ │ 1.045 │ 0.364 │ 0.012 │ 0.966 │ 1.003 │ 1.023 │ 1.043 │ 1.094 │ 214.22 │ 371.196 │ 1.026 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel SMC2Kernel Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 98.2%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -82.927, variance: 14.317 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -673.735, variance: 5.958 Total number of jittering steps: 55. Rejuvenations on average every 55.556 step, every 35.714 steps in first half, every 125.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.078, 0.012, 0.103, 0.235, 0.835]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [2.0, 3.0, 5.0, 10.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.031, 3.37, 3.716, 3.888, 3.996] for 4 chains. ┌────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ1 │ -1.637 │ 1.496 │ 0.464 │ -6.448 │ -2.345 │ -1.586 │ -0.46 │ 0.623 │ 9.86 │ 25.978 │ 1.358 │ │ μ2 │ 1.913 │ 0.109 │ 0.03 │ 1.644 │ 1.829 │ 1.929 │ 2.001 │ 2.076 │ 12.256 │ 42.188 │ 1.32 │ │ σ1 │ 2.069 │ 1.159 │ 0.244 │ 0.972 │ 1.417 │ 1.718 │ 2.101 │ 5.849 │ 25.203 │ 33.702 │ 1.142 │ │ σ2 │ 1.019 │ 0.079 │ 0.013 │ 0.916 │ 0.968 │ 1.013 │ 1.044 │ 1.258 │ 29.94 │ 22.405 │ 1.137 │ │ p1 │ 0.084 │ 0.039 │ 0.012 │ 0.013 │ 0.059 │ 0.087 │ 0.116 │ 0.156 │ 12.647 │ 17.486 │ 1.355 │ │ p2 │ 0.916 │ 0.039 │ 0.012 │ 0.844 │ 0.884 │ 0.913 │ 0.941 │ 0.987 │ 12.647 │ 22.574 │ 1.355 │ └────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel SMC2Kernel Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 98.6%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -675.926, variance: 6.08 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1342.585, variance: 3.101 Total number of jittering steps: 59. Rejuvenations on average every 71.429 step, every 35.714 steps in first half, every Inf steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [0.265, 0.477, 0.8, 0.898, 0.997]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [2.05, 9.0, 10.0, 10.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.081, 3.427, 3.686, 3.821, 3.985] for 4 chains. ┌────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ1 │ -0.138 │ 0.312 │ 0.064 │ -0.547 │ -0.144 │ -0.058 │ -0.042 │ 0.05 │ 5.817 │ NaN │ 1.855 │ │ μ2 │ 1.571 │ 0.169 │ 0.049 │ 1.457 │ 1.471 │ 1.485 │ 1.534 │ 2.066 │ 5.611 │ 4.208 │ 1.926 │ │ σ1 │ 1.023 │ 0.215 │ 0.037 │ 0.842 │ 0.954 │ 0.96 │ 0.966 │ 1.912 │ 12.161 │ 10.779 │ 1.839 │ │ σ2 │ 1.243 │ 0.129 │ 0.05 │ 0.995 │ 1.264 │ 1.296 │ 1.318 │ 1.37 │ 6.035 │ NaN │ 1.789 │ │ p1 │ 0.854 │ 0.261 │ 0.058 │ 0.092 │ 0.944 │ 0.957 │ 0.971 │ 0.977 │ 5.744 │ NaN │ 1.882 │ │ p2 │ 0.146 │ 0.261 │ 0.058 │ 0.023 │ 0.029 │ 0.043 │ 0.056 │ 0.908 │ 5.744 │ 4.208 │ 1.882 │ └────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ NaN │ 8.398 │ NaN │ └───┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ ┌───┬──────┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ NaN │ 8.398 │ NaN │ └───┴──────┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ σ │ 10.062 │ 0.137 │ 0.034 │ 9.757 │ 9.994 │ 10.06 │ 10.144 │ 10.273 │ 13.991 │ 78.072 │ 1.217 │ │ μ │ 0.289 │ 0.001 │ 0.0 │ 0.288 │ 0.289 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.291 │ 13.991 │ 10.965 │ 1.217 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ NaN │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ NaN │ 8.398 │ NaN │ └───┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ ┌───┬──────┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ NaN │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ NaN │ 8.398 │ NaN │ └───┴──────┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ σ │ 10.016 │ 0.136 │ 0.027 │ 9.799 │ 9.935 │ 10.0 │ 10.148 │ 10.28 │ 34.355 │ 43.411 │ 1.193 │ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.001 │ 0.0 │ 0.288 │ 0.289 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.291 │ 34.355 │ 69.072 │ 1.193 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 6.48 │ 8.398 │ 1.778 │ └───┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ ┌───┬──────┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 6.48 │ 8.398 │ 1.778 │ └───┴──────┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ σ │ 9.993 │ 0.142 │ 0.038 │ 9.776 │ 9.855 │ 10.004 │ 10.105 │ 10.264 │ 13.357 │ 29.264 │ 1.25 │ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.001 │ 0.0 │ 0.288 │ 0.289 │ 0.29 │ 0.291 │ 0.291 │ 13.418 │ 34.782 │ 1.25 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 6.069 │ 8.398 │ 1.931 │ └───┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ ┌───┬──────┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 6.069 │ 8.398 │ 1.931 │ └───┴──────┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ σ │ 9.987 │ 0.367 │ 0.145 │ 9.416 │ 9.737 │ 9.964 │ 10.245 │ 10.514 │ 6.732 │ 5.841 │ 1.737 │ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.002 │ 0.001 │ 0.287 │ 0.289 │ 0.29 │ 0.291 │ 0.293 │ 7.252 │ 43.381 │ 1.638 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ NaN │ 8.398 │ NaN │ └───┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ ┌───┬──────┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ NaN │ 8.398 │ NaN │ └───┴──────┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ σ │ 10.015 │ 0.226 │ 0.031 │ 9.64 │ 9.815 │ 10.028 │ 10.193 │ 10.391 │ 53.704 │ 53.689 │ 1.047 │ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.001 │ 0.0 │ 0.288 │ 0.289 │ 0.29 │ 0.291 │ 0.292 │ 53.704 │ 53.689 │ 1.047 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ NaN │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ NaN │ 8.398 │ NaN │ └───┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ ┌───┬──────┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ NaN │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ NaN │ 8.398 │ NaN │ └───┴──────┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ σ │ 10.033 │ 0.229 │ 0.053 │ 9.65 │ 9.821 │ 10.062 │ 10.208 │ 10.409 │ 22.732 │ 19.942 │ 1.157 │ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.001 │ 0.0 │ 0.288 │ 0.289 │ 0.289 │ 0.291 │ 0.292 │ 22.732 │ 59.186 │ 1.157 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 6.587 │ 71.244 │ 1.746 │ └───┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ ┌───┬──────┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 6.587 │ 71.244 │ 1.746 │ └───┴──────┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ σ │ 9.962 │ 0.222 │ 0.026 │ 9.609 │ 9.832 │ 9.973 │ 10.086 │ 10.392 │ 78.197 │ 16.919 │ 1.17 │ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.001 │ 0.0 │ 0.288 │ 0.289 │ 0.29 │ 0.291 │ 0.292 │ 76.405 │ 45.758 │ 1.172 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 6.401 │ 8.398 │ 1.806 │ └───┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ ┌───┬──────┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 6.401 │ 8.398 │ 1.806 │ └───┴──────┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ σ │ 10.008 │ 0.215 │ 0.043 │ 9.677 │ 9.845 │ 9.993 │ 10.193 │ 10.379 │ 27.95 │ 20.393 │ 1.114 │ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.001 │ 0.0 │ 0.288 │ 0.289 │ 0.29 │ 0.291 │ 0.292 │ 27.764 │ 79.222 │ 1.114 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 10000. Sampling iterations set to 900 Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 10. Sampling iterations set to 10 Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Test Summary: | Pass Total Time All tests | 214 214 15m11.4s Testing Baytes tests passed Testing completed after 949.16s PkgEval succeeded after 1102.06s