Package evaluation to test Baytes on Julia 1.14.0-DEV.1893 (b4aba01002*) started at 2026-03-15T23:00:15.817 ################################################################################ # Set-up # Installing PkgEval dependencies (TestEnv)... Activating project at `~/.julia/environments/v1.14` Set-up completed after 13.76s ################################################################################ # Installation # Installing Baytes... Resolving package versions... Updating `~/.julia/environments/v1.14/Project.toml` [72ddfcfc] + Baytes v0.3.16 Updating `~/.julia/environments/v1.14/Manifest.toml` [621f4979] + AbstractFFTs v1.5.0 [7d9f7c33] + Accessors v0.1.43 [79e6a3ab] + Adapt v4.5.0 [66dad0bd] + AliasTables v1.1.3 [dce04be8] + ArgCheck v2.5.0 [72ddfcfc] + Baytes v0.3.16 [e5a8efeb] + BaytesCore v0.2.0 [12a76ff9] + BaytesDiff v0.3.1 [26b78818] + BaytesFilters v0.3.6 [8e6e46a0] + BaytesMCMC v0.3.4 [c78c806d] + BaytesOptim v0.1.9 [c4a8eb41] + BaytesPMCMC v0.3.3 [2428e3a5] + BaytesSMC v0.3.6 ⌅ [76274a88] + Bijectors v0.13.18 [082447d4] + ChainRules v1.73.0 [d360d2e6] + ChainRulesCore v1.26.0 [9e997f8a] + ChangesOfVariables v0.1.10 [38540f10] + CommonSolve v0.2.6 [34da2185] + Compat v4.18.1 [a33af91c] + CompositionsBase v0.1.2 [187b0558] + ConstructionBase v1.6.0 [a8cc5b0e] + Crayons v4.1.1 [9a962f9c] + DataAPI v1.16.0 [864edb3b] + DataStructures v0.19.3 [e2d170a0] + DataValueInterfaces v1.0.0 [31c24e10] + Distributions v0.25.123 [ffbed154] + DocStringExtensions v0.9.5 [fdbdab4c] + ElasticArrays v1.2.12 [5789e2e9] + FileIO v1.18.0 [1a297f60] + FillArrays v1.16.0 ⌅ [d9f16b24] + Functors v0.4.12 [46192b85] + GPUArraysCore v0.2.0 [34004b35] + HypergeometricFunctions v0.3.28 [3587e190] + InverseFunctions v0.1.17 [92d709cd] + IrrationalConstants v0.2.6 [82899510] + IteratorInterfaceExtensions v1.0.0 ⌅ [033835bb] + JLD2 v0.4.55 [692b3bcd] + JLLWrappers v1.7.1 [b964fa9f] + LaTeXStrings v1.4.0 [2ab3a3ac] + LogExpFunctions v0.3.29 [be115224] + MCMCDiagnosticTools v0.3.16 [e80e1ace] + MLJModelInterface v1.12.1 [1914dd2f] + MacroTools v0.5.16 [dbb5928d] + MappedArrays v0.4.3 [e1d29d7a] + Missings v1.2.0 [44c54197] + ModelWrappers v0.5.6 [bac558e1] + OrderedCollections v1.8.1 [90014a1f] + PDMats v0.11.37 [aea7be01] + PrecompileTools v1.3.3 [21216c6a] + Preferences v1.5.2 ⌅ [08abe8d2] + PrettyTables v2.4.0 [92933f4c] + ProgressMeter v1.11.0 [43287f4e] + PtrArrays v1.4.0 [1fd47b50] + QuadGK v2.11.2 [c1ae055f] + RealDot v0.1.0 [189a3867] + Reexport v1.2.2 [ae029012] + Requires v1.3.1 [79098fc4] + Rmath v0.9.0 [f2b01f46] + Roots v2.2.13 [30f210dd] + ScientificTypesBase v3.1.0 [ce78b400] + SimpleUnPack v1.1.0 [a2af1166] + SortingAlgorithms v1.2.2 [dc90abb0] + SparseInverseSubset v0.1.2 [276daf66] + SpecialFunctions v2.7.1 [64bff920] + StatisticalTraits v3.5.0 [10745b16] + Statistics v1.11.1 [82ae8749] + StatsAPI v1.8.0 [2913bbd2] + StatsBase v0.34.10 [4c63d2b9] + StatsFuns v1.5.2 [892a3eda] + StringManipulation v0.4.4 [09ab397b] + StructArrays v0.7.2 [3783bdb8] + TableTraits v1.0.1 [bd369af6] + Tables v1.12.1 [3bb67fe8] + TranscodingStreams v0.11.3 [efe28fd5] + OpenSpecFun_jll v0.5.6+0 [f50d1b31] + Rmath_jll v0.5.1+0 [0dad84c5] + ArgTools v1.1.2 [56f22d72] + Artifacts v1.11.0 [2a0f44e3] + Base64 v1.11.0 [ade2ca70] + Dates v1.11.0 [8ba89e20] + Distributed v1.11.0 [f43a241f] + Downloads v1.7.0 [7b1f6079] + FileWatching v1.11.0 [b77e0a4c] + InteractiveUtils v1.11.0 [ac6e5ff7] + JuliaSyntaxHighlighting v1.13.0 [b27032c2] + LibCURL v1.0.0 [76f85450] + LibGit2 v1.11.0 [8f399da3] + Libdl v1.11.0 [37e2e46d] + LinearAlgebra v1.13.0 [56ddb016] + Logging v1.11.0 [d6f4376e] + Markdown v1.11.0 [a63ad114] + Mmap v1.11.0 [ca575930] + NetworkOptions v1.3.0 [44cfe95a] + Pkg v1.14.0 [de0858da] + Printf v1.11.0 [3fa0cd96] + REPL v1.11.0 [9a3f8284] + Random v1.11.0 [ea8e919c] + SHA v1.0.0 [9e88b42a] + Serialization v1.11.0 [6462fe0b] + Sockets v1.11.0 [2f01184e] + SparseArrays v1.13.0 [f489334b] + StyledStrings v1.13.0 [4607b0f0] + SuiteSparse [fa267f1f] + TOML v1.0.3 [a4e569a6] + Tar v1.10.0 [cf7118a7] + UUIDs v1.11.0 [4ec0a83e] + Unicode v1.11.0 [e66e0078] + CompilerSupportLibraries_jll v1.3.0+1 [deac9b47] + LibCURL_jll v8.18.0+1 [e37daf67] + LibGit2_jll v1.9.2+0 [29816b5a] + LibSSH2_jll v1.11.3+1 [14a3606d] + MozillaCACerts_jll v2025.12.2 [4536629a] + OpenBLAS_jll v0.3.30+0 [05823500] + OpenLibm_jll v0.8.7+0 [458c3c95] + OpenSSL_jll v3.5.5+0 [efcefdf7] + PCRE2_jll v10.47.0+0 [bea87d4a] + SuiteSparse_jll v7.10.1+0 [83775a58] + Zlib_jll v1.3.2+0 [3161d3a3] + Zstd_jll v1.5.7+1 [8e850b90] + libblastrampoline_jll v5.15.0+0 [8e850ede] + nghttp2_jll v1.68.0+1 [3f19e933] + p7zip_jll v17.8.0+0 Info Packages marked with ⌅ have new versions available but compatibility constraints restrict them from upgrading. To see why use `status --outdated -m` Installation completed after 6.39s ################################################################################ # Precompilation # Precompiling PkgEval dependencies... Precompiling package dependencies... Precompiling packages... 6406.8 ms ✓ BaytesOptim 6035.7 ms ✓ BaytesOptim → BaytesOptimOptimExt 6968.9 ms ✓ BaytesSMC 15303.0 ms ✓ Baytes 4 dependencies successfully precompiled in 42 seconds. 175 already precompiled. 26 dependencies precompiled but different versions are currently loaded (ArgTools, Base64, Dates, Downloads, JuliaSyntaxHighlighting, LibCURL, LibCURL_jll, LibGit2, LibGit2_jll, LibSSH2_jll, Logging, Markdown, MozillaCACerts_jll, NetworkOptions, OpenSSL_jll, PCRE2_jll, Pkg, Printf, StyledStrings, TOML, Tar, UUIDs, Zlib_jll, Zstd_jll, nghttp2_jll and p7zip_jll). Restart julia to access the new versions. Otherwise, 84 dependents of these packages may trigger further precompilation to work with the unexpected versions. Precompilation completed after 59.65s ################################################################################ # Testing # Testing Baytes Status `/tmp/jl_Dyb8Kt/Project.toml` [dce04be8] ArgCheck v2.5.0 [72ddfcfc] Baytes v0.3.16 [e5a8efeb] BaytesCore v0.2.0 [12a76ff9] BaytesDiff v0.3.1 [26b78818] BaytesFilters v0.3.6 [8e6e46a0] BaytesMCMC v0.3.4 [c78c806d] BaytesOptim v0.1.9 [c4a8eb41] BaytesPMCMC v0.3.3 [2428e3a5] BaytesSMC v0.3.6 [31c24e10] Distributions v0.25.123 [ffbed154] DocStringExtensions v0.9.5 ⌃ [f6369f11] ForwardDiff v0.10.39 ⌅ [033835bb] JLD2 v0.4.55 [be115224] MCMCDiagnosticTools v0.3.16 [44c54197] ModelWrappers v0.5.6 ⌅ [d41bc354] NLSolversBase v7.10.0 ⌃ [429524aa] Optim v1.13.3 ⌅ [08abe8d2] PrettyTables v2.4.0 [92933f4c] ProgressMeter v1.11.0 [ce78b400] SimpleUnPack v1.1.0 [10745b16] Statistics v1.11.1 [ade2ca70] Dates v1.11.0 [9a3f8284] Random v1.11.0 [8dfed614] Test v1.11.0 Status `/tmp/jl_Dyb8Kt/Manifest.toml` [47edcb42] ADTypes v1.21.0 [621f4979] AbstractFFTs v1.5.0 [7d9f7c33] Accessors v0.1.43 [79e6a3ab] Adapt v4.5.0 [66dad0bd] AliasTables v1.1.3 [dce04be8] ArgCheck v2.5.0 [4fba245c] ArrayInterface v7.23.0 [72ddfcfc] Baytes v0.3.16 [e5a8efeb] BaytesCore v0.2.0 [12a76ff9] BaytesDiff v0.3.1 [26b78818] BaytesFilters v0.3.6 [8e6e46a0] BaytesMCMC v0.3.4 [c78c806d] BaytesOptim v0.1.9 [c4a8eb41] BaytesPMCMC v0.3.3 [2428e3a5] BaytesSMC v0.3.6 ⌅ [76274a88] Bijectors v0.13.18 [082447d4] ChainRules v1.73.0 [d360d2e6] ChainRulesCore v1.26.0 [9e997f8a] ChangesOfVariables v0.1.10 [38540f10] CommonSolve v0.2.6 [bbf7d656] CommonSubexpressions v0.3.1 [34da2185] Compat v4.18.1 [a33af91c] CompositionsBase v0.1.2 [187b0558] ConstructionBase v1.6.0 [a8cc5b0e] Crayons v4.1.1 [9a962f9c] DataAPI v1.16.0 [864edb3b] DataStructures v0.19.3 [e2d170a0] DataValueInterfaces v1.0.0 [163ba53b] DiffResults v1.1.0 [b552c78f] DiffRules v1.15.1 [a0c0ee7d] DifferentiationInterface v0.7.16 [31c24e10] Distributions v0.25.123 [ffbed154] DocStringExtensions v0.9.5 [fdbdab4c] ElasticArrays v1.2.12 [4e289a0a] EnumX v1.0.7 [5789e2e9] FileIO v1.18.0 [1a297f60] FillArrays v1.16.0 [6a86dc24] FiniteDiff v2.29.0 ⌃ [f6369f11] ForwardDiff v0.10.39 ⌅ [d9f16b24] Functors v0.4.12 [46192b85] GPUArraysCore v0.2.0 [34004b35] HypergeometricFunctions v0.3.28 [3587e190] InverseFunctions v0.1.17 [92d709cd] IrrationalConstants v0.2.6 [82899510] IteratorInterfaceExtensions v1.0.0 ⌅ [033835bb] JLD2 v0.4.55 [692b3bcd] JLLWrappers v1.7.1 [b964fa9f] LaTeXStrings v1.4.0 ⌃ [d3d80556] LineSearches v7.5.1 [2ab3a3ac] LogExpFunctions v0.3.29 [be115224] MCMCDiagnosticTools v0.3.16 [e80e1ace] MLJModelInterface v1.12.1 [1914dd2f] MacroTools v0.5.16 [dbb5928d] MappedArrays v0.4.3 [e1d29d7a] Missings v1.2.0 [44c54197] ModelWrappers v0.5.6 ⌅ [d41bc354] NLSolversBase v7.10.0 [77ba4419] NaNMath v1.1.3 ⌃ [429524aa] Optim v1.13.3 [bac558e1] OrderedCollections v1.8.1 [90014a1f] PDMats v0.11.37 [85a6dd25] PositiveFactorizations v0.2.4 [aea7be01] PrecompileTools v1.3.3 [21216c6a] Preferences v1.5.2 ⌅ [08abe8d2] PrettyTables v2.4.0 [92933f4c] ProgressMeter v1.11.0 [43287f4e] PtrArrays v1.4.0 [1fd47b50] QuadGK v2.11.2 [c1ae055f] RealDot v0.1.0 [189a3867] Reexport v1.2.2 [ae029012] Requires v1.3.1 [79098fc4] Rmath v0.9.0 [f2b01f46] Roots v2.2.13 [30f210dd] ScientificTypesBase v3.1.0 [efcf1570] Setfield v1.1.2 [ce78b400] SimpleUnPack v1.1.0 [a2af1166] SortingAlgorithms v1.2.2 [dc90abb0] SparseInverseSubset v0.1.2 [276daf66] SpecialFunctions v2.7.1 [1e83bf80] StaticArraysCore v1.4.4 [64bff920] StatisticalTraits v3.5.0 [10745b16] Statistics v1.11.1 [82ae8749] StatsAPI v1.8.0 [2913bbd2] StatsBase v0.34.10 [4c63d2b9] StatsFuns v1.5.2 [892a3eda] StringManipulation v0.4.4 [09ab397b] StructArrays v0.7.2 [3783bdb8] TableTraits v1.0.1 [bd369af6] Tables v1.12.1 [3bb67fe8] TranscodingStreams v0.11.3 [efe28fd5] OpenSpecFun_jll v0.5.6+0 [f50d1b31] Rmath_jll v0.5.1+0 [0dad84c5] ArgTools v1.1.2 [56f22d72] Artifacts v1.11.0 [2a0f44e3] Base64 v1.11.0 [ade2ca70] Dates v1.11.0 [8ba89e20] Distributed v1.11.0 [f43a241f] Downloads v1.7.0 [7b1f6079] FileWatching v1.11.0 [9fa8497b] Future v1.11.0 [b77e0a4c] InteractiveUtils v1.11.0 [ac6e5ff7] JuliaSyntaxHighlighting v1.13.0 [b27032c2] LibCURL v1.0.0 [76f85450] LibGit2 v1.11.0 [8f399da3] Libdl v1.11.0 [37e2e46d] LinearAlgebra v1.13.0 [56ddb016] Logging v1.11.0 [d6f4376e] Markdown v1.11.0 [a63ad114] Mmap v1.11.0 [ca575930] NetworkOptions v1.3.0 [44cfe95a] Pkg v1.14.0 [de0858da] Printf v1.11.0 [3fa0cd96] REPL v1.11.0 [9a3f8284] Random v1.11.0 [ea8e919c] SHA v1.0.0 [9e88b42a] Serialization v1.11.0 [6462fe0b] Sockets v1.11.0 [2f01184e] SparseArrays v1.13.0 [f489334b] StyledStrings v1.13.0 [4607b0f0] SuiteSparse [fa267f1f] TOML v1.0.3 [a4e569a6] Tar v1.10.0 [8dfed614] Test v1.11.0 [cf7118a7] UUIDs v1.11.0 [4ec0a83e] Unicode v1.11.0 [e66e0078] CompilerSupportLibraries_jll v1.3.0+1 [deac9b47] LibCURL_jll v8.18.0+1 [e37daf67] LibGit2_jll v1.9.2+0 [29816b5a] LibSSH2_jll v1.11.3+1 [14a3606d] MozillaCACerts_jll v2025.12.2 [4536629a] OpenBLAS_jll v0.3.30+0 [05823500] OpenLibm_jll v0.8.7+0 [458c3c95] OpenSSL_jll v3.5.5+0 [efcefdf7] PCRE2_jll v10.47.0+0 [bea87d4a] SuiteSparse_jll v7.10.1+0 [83775a58] Zlib_jll v1.3.2+0 [3161d3a3] Zstd_jll v1.5.7+1 [8e850b90] libblastrampoline_jll v5.15.0+0 [8e850ede] nghttp2_jll v1.68.0+1 [3f19e933] p7zip_jll v17.8.0+0 Info Packages marked with ⌃ and ⌅ have new versions available. Those with ⌃ may be upgradable, but those with ⌅ are restricted by compatibility constraints from upgrading. Testing Running tests... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.146 │ 0.253 │ 0.078 │ -0.286 │ -0.033 │ 0.156 │ 0.338 │ 0.631 │ 11.749 │ 10.01 │ 1.289 │ │ σ │ 9.992 │ 0.15 │ 0.025 │ 9.706 │ 9.88 │ 10.0 │ 10.078 │ 10.339 │ 27.676 │ 82.581 │ 1.131 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ ┌───┬──────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.146 │ 0.253 │ 0.078 │ -0.286 │ -0.033 │ 0.156 │ 0.338 │ 0.631 │ 11.749 │ 10.01 │ 1.289 │ │ σ │ 10.0 │ 9.992 │ 0.15 │ 0.025 │ 9.706 │ 9.88 │ 10.0 │ 10.078 │ 10.339 │ 27.676 │ 82.581 │ 1.131 │ └───┴──────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.054 │ 0.259 │ 0.051 │ -0.182 │ -0.079 │ 0.0 │ 0.035 │ 0.775 │ 21.653 │ 12.644 │ 1.414 │ │ σ │ 10.019 │ 0.156 │ 0.016 │ 9.595 │ 9.959 │ 10.0 │ 10.101 │ 10.316 │ 61.514 │ 92.079 │ 1.298 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ ┌───┬──────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.054 │ 0.259 │ 0.051 │ -0.182 │ -0.079 │ 0.0 │ 0.035 │ 0.775 │ 21.653 │ 12.644 │ 1.414 │ │ σ │ 10.0 │ 10.019 │ 0.156 │ 0.016 │ 9.595 │ 9.959 │ 10.0 │ 10.101 │ 10.316 │ 61.514 │ 92.079 │ 1.298 │ └───┴──────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ -0.02 │ 0.208 │ 0.063 │ -0.309 │ -0.191 │ -0.002 │ 0.072 │ 0.542 │ 8.883 │ 39.991 │ 1.434 │ │ σ │ 9.944 │ 0.241 │ 0.071 │ 9.607 │ 9.807 │ 9.955 │ 10.057 │ 10.564 │ 12.216 │ 7.426 │ 1.255 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ ┌───┬──────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ -0.02 │ 0.208 │ 0.063 │ -0.309 │ -0.191 │ -0.002 │ 0.072 │ 0.542 │ 8.883 │ 39.991 │ 1.434 │ │ σ │ 10.0 │ 9.944 │ 0.241 │ 0.071 │ 9.607 │ 9.807 │ 9.955 │ 10.057 │ 10.564 │ 12.216 │ 7.426 │ 1.255 │ └───┴──────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.159 │ 0.313 │ 0.121 │ -0.189 │ -0.089 │ -0.009 │ 0.421 │ 0.702 │ 7.311 │ 9.104 │ 1.611 │ │ σ │ 9.884 │ 0.224 │ 0.053 │ 9.634 │ 9.665 │ 9.896 │ 10.013 │ 10.386 │ 18.469 │ 8.508 │ 1.156 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ ┌───┬──────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.159 │ 0.313 │ 0.121 │ -0.189 │ -0.089 │ -0.009 │ 0.421 │ 0.702 │ 7.311 │ 9.104 │ 1.611 │ │ σ │ 10.0 │ 9.884 │ 0.224 │ 0.053 │ 9.634 │ 9.665 │ 9.896 │ 10.013 │ 10.386 │ 18.469 │ 8.508 │ 1.156 │ └───┴──────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.073 │ 0.331 │ 0.108 │ -0.453 │ -0.138 │ 0.051 │ 0.305 │ 0.781 │ 9.046 │ 24.321 │ 1.434 │ │ σ │ 9.988 │ 0.232 │ 0.034 │ 9.568 │ 9.782 │ 10.0 │ 10.144 │ 10.502 │ 50.164 │ 102.886 │ 1.066 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ ┌───┬──────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.073 │ 0.331 │ 0.108 │ -0.453 │ -0.138 │ 0.051 │ 0.305 │ 0.781 │ 9.046 │ 24.321 │ 1.434 │ │ σ │ 10.0 │ 9.988 │ 0.232 │ 0.034 │ 9.568 │ 9.782 │ 10.0 │ 10.144 │ 10.502 │ 50.164 │ 102.886 │ 1.066 │ └───┴──────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.059 │ 0.439 │ 0.137 │ -0.533 │ -0.312 │ 0.017 │ 0.28 │ 1.099 │ 11.291 │ 26.6 │ 1.311 │ │ σ │ 10.021 │ 0.257 │ 0.027 │ 9.625 │ 9.792 │ 10.02 │ 10.229 │ 10.518 │ 86.933 │ 53.323 │ 1.048 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ ┌───┬──────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.059 │ 0.439 │ 0.137 │ -0.533 │ -0.312 │ 0.017 │ 0.28 │ 1.099 │ 11.291 │ 26.6 │ 1.311 │ │ σ │ 10.0 │ 10.021 │ 0.257 │ 0.027 │ 9.625 │ 9.792 │ 10.02 │ 10.229 │ 10.518 │ 86.933 │ 53.323 │ 1.048 │ └───┴──────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.035 │ 0.296 │ 0.072 │ -0.357 │ -0.158 │ -0.057 │ 0.165 │ 0.884 │ 17.458 │ 22.054 │ 1.248 │ │ σ │ 10.01 │ 0.292 │ 0.051 │ 9.517 │ 9.826 │ 9.978 │ 10.239 │ 10.576 │ 34.269 │ 18.801 │ 1.101 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ ┌───┬──────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.035 │ 0.296 │ 0.072 │ -0.357 │ -0.158 │ -0.057 │ 0.165 │ 0.884 │ 17.458 │ 22.054 │ 1.248 │ │ σ │ 10.0 │ 10.01 │ 0.292 │ 0.051 │ 9.517 │ 9.826 │ 9.978 │ 10.239 │ 10.576 │ 34.269 │ 18.801 │ 1.101 │ └───┴──────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.201 │ 0.322 │ 0.104 │ -0.265 │ -0.045 │ 0.135 │ 0.442 │ 0.864 │ 9.178 │ 25.627 │ 1.405 │ │ σ │ 10.036 │ 0.286 │ 0.031 │ 9.527 │ 9.838 │ 10.006 │ 10.247 │ 10.631 │ 93.295 │ 39.558 │ 1.204 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ ┌───┬──────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.201 │ 0.322 │ 0.104 │ -0.265 │ -0.045 │ 0.135 │ 0.442 │ 0.864 │ 9.178 │ 25.627 │ 1.405 │ │ σ │ 10.0 │ 10.036 │ 0.286 │ 0.031 │ 9.527 │ 9.838 │ 10.006 │ 10.247 │ 10.631 │ 93.295 │ 39.558 │ 1.204 │ └───┴──────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1080.002, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3737.283. NUTS sampler had 37 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 22.642 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.45 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 37, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.252 │ 0.313 │ 0.04 │ -0.293 │ 0.008 │ 0.252 │ 0.458 │ 0.949 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ │ σ │ 10.027 │ 0.211 │ 0.013 │ 9.635 │ 9.891 │ 10.019 │ 10.202 │ 10.438 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1080.486, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3734.96. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 20.86 (27) number of steps and depth of 3.78 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.328 │ 0.371 │ 0.073 │ -0.268 │ 0.083 │ 0.239 │ 0.61 │ 1.055 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ │ σ │ 9.98 │ 0.224 │ 0.029 │ 9.558 │ 9.839 │ 9.96 │ 10.144 │ 10.375 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1079.823, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3738.829. NUTS sampler had 29 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 18.946 (7) number of steps and depth of 3.438 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 29, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1080.344, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3738.273. NUTS sampler had 28 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 19.216 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.42 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 28, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.237 │ 0.29 │ 0.037 │ -0.318 │ 0.034 │ 0.242 │ 0.431 │ 0.84 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ │ σ │ 10.023 │ 0.209 │ 0.011 │ 9.603 │ 9.876 │ 10.037 │ 10.164 │ 10.436 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1080.344, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.25. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 23.02 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.92 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1080.031, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.152. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 20.72 (7) number of steps and depth of 3.71 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.27 │ 0.303 │ 0.035 │ -0.273 │ 0.053 │ 0.259 │ 0.471 │ 0.814 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ │ σ │ 10.035 │ 0.278 │ 0.026 │ 9.499 │ 9.841 │ 10.044 │ 10.205 │ 10.609 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.001, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.56. NUTS sampler had 172 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 48.126 (7) number of steps and depth of 2.5 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 34, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 138, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.004, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.404. NUTS sampler had 75 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 106.748 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.496 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 25, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 50, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.001, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.638. NUTS sampler had 211 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 24.924 (1) number of steps and depth of 2.004 (0). Divergences in: Warmup: 36, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 175, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1.827, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.311. NUTS sampler had 69 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 96.32 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.736 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 19, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 50, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬─────────┬─────────┬─────────┬──────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼─────────┼─────────┼─────────┼──────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ -15.509 │ 69.232 │ 27.937 │ -174.358 │ -0.012 │ 0.349 │ 2.852 │ 52.197 │ 7.32 │ 12.744 │ 1.679 │ │ σ │ 2142.26 │ 42524.1 │ 1258.54 │ 9.64 │ 10.014 │ 10.193 │ 33.407 │ 653.68 │ 8.805 │ 89.617 │ 1.588 │ └───┴─────────┴─────────┴─────────┴──────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.001, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3738.68. NUTS sampler had 25 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 199.06 (1) number of steps and depth of 3.78 (0). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 25, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.015, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.742. NUTS sampler had 15 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 247.04 (2) number of steps and depth of 4.85 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 15, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.779, Avg. final ℓposterior: -5864.068. NUTS sampler had 68 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 49.27 (1) number of steps and depth of 1.48 (0). Divergences in: Warmup: 43, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 25, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.001, Avg. final ℓposterior: -4436.643. NUTS sampler had 25 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 257.44 (1) number of steps and depth of 4.08 (0). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 25, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬─────────┬───────────┬─────────┬─────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬─────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼─────────┼───────────┼─────────┼─────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼─────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 76.445 │ 345.66 │ 73.265 │ -24.356 │ 0.414 │ 15.026 │ 37.974 │ 819.028 │ 11.618 │ 29.818 │ 1.671 │ │ σ │ 18519.2 │ 2.29535e5 │ 15016.9 │ 3.825 │ 10.183 │ 19.998 │ 33.019 │ 34345.4 │ 11.687 │ 37.74 │ 1.467 │ └───┴─────────┴───────────┴─────────┴─────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴─────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.029, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3737.415. NUTS sampler had 68 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 102.658 (23) number of steps and depth of 3.718 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 18, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 50, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.005, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3736.398. NUTS sampler had 85 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 106.268 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.872 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 35, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 50, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.001, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.513. NUTS sampler had 86 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 101.258 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.56 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 36, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 50, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.331, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3736.888. NUTS sampler had 75 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 120.826 (7) number of steps and depth of 3.984 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 25, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 50, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.002, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3738.438. NUTS sampler had 69 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 95.924 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.678 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 19, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 50, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.005, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3739.146. NUTS sampler had 85 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 112.942 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.916 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 35, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 50, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.01, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.581. NUTS sampler had 86 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 99.988 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.558 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 36, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 50, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.176, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.901. NUTS sampler had 74 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 111.43 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.968 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 24, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 50, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬─────────┬─────────┬─────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬─────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼─────────┼─────────┼─────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼─────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 3.144 │ 45.262 │ 4.604 │ -6.625 │ -0.016 │ 0.273 │ 0.552 │ 4.376 │ 48.488 │ 18.811 │ 1.128 │ │ σ │ 2633.99 │ 55242.9 │ 1971.18 │ 9.461 │ 9.873 │ 10.068 │ 10.312 │ 351.801 │ 32.904 │ 18.352 │ 1.083 │ └───┴─────────┴─────────┴─────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴─────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.001, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.42. NUTS sampler had 25 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 276.12 (1) number of steps and depth of 4.75 (0). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 25, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.001, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3736.505. NUTS sampler had 25 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 225.06 (1) number of steps and depth of 4.3 (0). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 25, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.001, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3736.044. NUTS sampler had 25 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 254.76 (1) number of steps and depth of 4.51 (0). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 25, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.001, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3739.437. NUTS sampler had 24 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 266.03 (1) number of steps and depth of 4.64 (0). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 24, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.001, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.42. NUTS sampler had 25 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 266.94 (1) number of steps and depth of 4.77 (0). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 25, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.001, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3736.505. NUTS sampler had 25 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 237.56 (1) number of steps and depth of 4.4 (0). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 25, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.001, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3736.044. NUTS sampler had 25 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 254.86 (1) number of steps and depth of 4.62 (0). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 25, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.001, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3739.437. NUTS sampler had 25 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 257.69 (1) number of steps and depth of 4.53 (0). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 25, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬─────────┬─────────┬─────────┬──────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬─────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼─────────┼─────────┼─────────┼──────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼─────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ -13.764 │ 35.177 │ 7.668 │ -111.726 │ -0.579 │ 0.164 │ 0.733 │ 16.047 │ 39.367 │ 63.118 │ 1.528 │ │ σ │ 5894.78 │ 64537.7 │ 4496.58 │ 9.196 │ 9.953 │ 10.184 │ 17.247 │ 22343.7 │ 18.742 │ 71.73 │ 1.465 │ └───┴─────────┴─────────┴─────────┴──────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴─────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.88, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.647. NUTS sampler had 25 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 24.838 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.506 (5). Divergences in: Warmup: 25, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.187 │ 0.281 │ 0.033 │ -0.306 │ -0.023 │ 0.163 │ 0.366 │ 0.746 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ │ σ │ 10.017 │ 0.207 │ 0.015 │ 9.603 │ 9.869 │ 10.032 │ 10.143 │ 10.446 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -3735.61, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.429. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 19.12 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.65 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.318 │ 0.263 │ 0.043 │ -0.137 │ 0.157 │ 0.289 │ 0.46 │ 0.847 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ │ σ │ 10.019 │ 0.188 │ 0.019 │ 9.669 │ 9.902 │ 10.003 │ 10.157 │ 10.394 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1868.228, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.385. NUTS sampler had 36 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 16.882 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.266 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 36, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1868.233, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3736.682. NUTS sampler had 29 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 18.138 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.358 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 29, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.268 │ 0.292 │ 0.037 │ -0.278 │ 0.038 │ 0.294 │ 0.463 │ 0.798 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ │ σ │ 10.011 │ 0.217 │ 0.012 │ 9.61 │ 9.853 │ 9.992 │ 10.176 │ 10.433 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -3736.187, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3738.659. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 18.32 (3) number of steps and depth of 3.54 (2). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -3735.304, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.755. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 20.42 (9) number of steps and depth of 3.77 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.283 │ 0.275 │ 0.032 │ -0.259 │ 0.097 │ 0.291 │ 0.427 │ 0.812 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ │ σ │ 10.04 │ 0.251 │ 0.026 │ 9.487 │ 9.894 │ 10.064 │ 10.214 │ 10.502 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.88, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2588.564. NUTS sampler had 28 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 20.842 (23) number of steps and depth of 3.518 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 28, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.88, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2588.5. NUTS sampler had 26 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 21.144 (23) number of steps and depth of 3.494 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 26, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1868.178, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2590.226. NUTS sampler had 24 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 19.452 (7) number of steps and depth of 3.326 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 24, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.88, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2588.573. NUTS sampler had 29 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.468 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.31 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 29, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.285 │ 0.349 │ 0.018 │ -0.431 │ 0.058 │ 0.28 │ 0.52 │ 0.964 │ 388.056 │ 583.59 │ 1.014 │ │ σ │ 10.006 │ 0.276 │ 0.014 │ 9.493 │ 9.806 │ 10.0 │ 10.195 │ 10.575 │ 374.169 │ 922.418 │ 1.013 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2589.606, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2696.976. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 20.82 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.77 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2590.039, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2696.732. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.52 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.57 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2589.948, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2696.316. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 19.34 (13) number of steps and depth of 3.59 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2589.697, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2695.548. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.82 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.56 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.284 │ 0.337 │ 0.036 │ -0.349 │ 0.061 │ 0.287 │ 0.517 │ 0.907 │ 85.733 │ 171.701 │ 1.031 │ │ σ │ 10.02 │ 0.27 │ 0.014 │ 9.474 │ 9.841 │ 10.024 │ 10.199 │ 10.575 │ 355.182 │ 192.684 │ 1.03 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.88, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2588.489. NUTS sampler had 22 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.536 (7) number of steps and depth of 3.292 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 22, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.88, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2588.339. NUTS sampler had 22 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 18.106 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.332 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 22, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.88, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2588.986. NUTS sampler had 22 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.84 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.318 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 22, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.88, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2588.669. NUTS sampler had 26 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.334 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.3 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 26, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.88, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2589.687. NUTS sampler had 23 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 16.752 (11) number of steps and depth of 3.278 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 23, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.801, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2588.782. NUTS sampler had 19 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.824 (11) number of steps and depth of 3.336 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 19, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1868.501, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2588.985. NUTS sampler had 20 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 18.64 (23) number of steps and depth of 3.31 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 20, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.88, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2588.485. NUTS sampler had 34 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 16.652 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.272 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 34, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.274 │ 0.37 │ 0.016 │ -0.454 │ 0.021 │ 0.274 │ 0.518 │ 1.013 │ 546.633 │ 802.682 │ 1.008 │ │ σ │ 10.034 │ 0.283 │ 0.007 │ 9.489 │ 9.839 │ 10.018 │ 10.219 │ 10.601 │ 1570.13 │ 1273.3 │ 1.001 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2591.844, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2695.869. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 15.86 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.36 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2589.983, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2696.962. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 18.7 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.7 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2590.994, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2695.538. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 19.92 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.73 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2590.461, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2695.449. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.56 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.55 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2591.856, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2695.742. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.1 (11) number of steps and depth of 3.57 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2589.451, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2695.268. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 19.74 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.71 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2590.166, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2695.369. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 20.42 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.72 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2590.713, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2695.509. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 16.42 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.53 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.292 │ 0.342 │ 0.025 │ -0.37 │ 0.062 │ 0.289 │ 0.505 │ 0.938 │ 190.294 │ 268.263 │ 1.006 │ │ σ │ 10.011 │ 0.245 │ 0.011 │ 9.509 │ 9.845 │ 10.007 │ 10.186 │ 10.484 │ 471.792 │ 372.653 │ 1.011 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Computing... 0%|▏ | ETA: 0:06:49 ( 1.03 s/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 2 logobjective: -3735.7599335028153 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.5413158259350118e-85 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3739.129127462438                         Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:02 ( 6.89 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 100 logobjective: -3736.6338658551654 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9998606429315371 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 127 ℓH: -3738.885526433838 Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -3735.76, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3736.362. NUTS sampler had 27 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 13.156 (95) number of steps and depth of 2.067 (6). Divergences in: Warmup: 27, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -3735.76, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.746. NUTS sampler had 23 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 24.4 (63) number of steps and depth of 2.333 (5). Divergences in: Warmup: 23, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -3735.369, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3737.944. NUTS sampler had 33 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 10.889 (23) number of steps and depth of 2.011 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 33, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -3735.759, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3736.634. NUTS sampler had 18 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 35.067 (127) number of steps and depth of 2.411 (6). Divergences in: Warmup: 18, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.235 │ 0.248 │ 0.05 │ -0.224 │ 0.087 │ 0.177 │ 0.346 │ 0.79 │ 25.168 │ 69.309 │ 1.314 │ │ σ │ 10.025 │ 0.141 │ 0.015 │ 9.708 │ 9.947 │ 10.03 │ 10.113 │ 10.3 │ 79.727 │ 55.197 │ 1.29 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Computing... 0%|▏ | ETA: 0:01:53 ( 0.28 s/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 102 logobjective: -3735.346450791276 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9998397021701971 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 63 ℓH: -3736.320869236958                         Computing... 28%|███████ | ETA: 0:00:02 ( 6.04 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 112 logobjective: -3735.6596514873436 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9999799373841098 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 31 ℓH: -3736.237444998629                         Computing... 57%|██████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 3.45 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 127 logobjective: -3735.591737121075 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9993604898583524 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 7 ℓH: -3735.594195161006                         Computing... 84%|█████████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 2.75 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 136 logobjective: -3736.221273013349 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9941752262484777 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 31 ℓH: -3737.023665132003                         Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:00 ( 2.43 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 200 logobjective: -3735.3317748247227 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9995247668474742 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 31 ℓH: -3736.1793764087743 Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -3735.545, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.487. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 22.089 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.7 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -3736.106, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3737.223. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 26.578 (23) number of steps and depth of 3.822 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -3738.886, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.393. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.933 (7) number of steps and depth of 3.433 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -3736.272, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.332. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 38.133 (31) number of steps and depth of 4.156 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.299 │ 0.337 │ 0.033 │ -0.384 │ 0.074 │ 0.318 │ 0.525 │ 0.942 │ 107.373 │ 116.552 │ 1.046 │ │ σ │ 10.009 │ 0.256 │ 0.02 │ 9.505 │ 9.842 │ 10.008 │ 10.165 │ 10.509 │ 159.094 │ 117.586 │ 1.033 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Computing... 0%|▏ | ETA: 0:02:21 ( 0.36 s/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1000 Avgℓobjective: -3738.4475361328045 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8235437186907668 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:01 ( 4.06 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1099 Avgℓobjective: -3738.3568549150004 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.6424563201373563 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -3738.296, variance: 0.23 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -3738.357, variance: 0.489 Total number of jittering steps: 112. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.752, -0.074, 0.285, 0.653, 0.912]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.316 │ 0.287 │ 0.027 │ -0.289 │ 0.127 │ 0.325 │ 0.513 │ 0.828 │ 112.795 │ 120.72 │ 1.029 │ │ σ │ 10.02 │ 0.222 │ 0.013 │ 9.551 │ 9.881 │ 10.024 │ 10.162 │ 10.461 │ 305.109 │ 250.855 │ 1.017 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Computing... 40%|██████████ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 0.64 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1140 Avgℓobjective: -1578.1993469369838 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9698694167194748 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 79%|███████████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 1.87 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1178 Avgℓobjective: -1577.560424631162 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.008371581031281217 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 88%|█████████████████████▉ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 2.00 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1187 Avgℓobjective: -1577.8936726208094 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.36013174356422223 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 96%|████████████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 2.12 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1196 Avgℓobjective: -1576.8105966426294 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.043204047652660504 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:00 ( 2.16 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1199 Avgℓobjective: -1577.4523631873776 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.39150549995288364 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1576.979, variance: 0.199 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1577.452, variance: 0.235 Total number of jittering steps: 230. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.488, 0.135, 0.534, 0.837, 1.0]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.029 │ 0.029 │ 0.003 │ -0.02 │ 0.01 │ 0.031 │ 0.046 │ 0.089 │ 140.345 │ 200.857 │ 1.127 │ │ σ │ 1.014 │ 0.024 │ 0.006 │ 0.966 │ 0.997 │ 1.014 │ 1.03 │ 1.062 │ 18.797 │ 26.369 │ 1.201 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Computing... 0%| | ETA: 0:10:41 ( 0.80 s/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1000 Avgℓobjective: -49567.00504540928 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: NaN generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 13%|███▎ | ETA: 0:00:17 (24.77 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1050 Avgℓobjective: -3738.4913904784617 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.32381700014044307 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 14%|███▌ | ETA: 0:00:16 (23.37 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 57 logobjective: -3736.024101974162 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 6.454449364469017e-107 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3736.3664631542492                         Computing... 15%|███▉ | ETA: 0:00:15 (22.85 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 62 logobjective: -3735.3186959646546 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 3.839413078361761e-6 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3735.8696942834995                         Computing... 16%|████▏ | ETA: 0:00:15 (22.36 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 66 logobjective: -3735.32152110003 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.0008099418269893465 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -3736.779215495177                         Computing... 17%|████▎ | ETA: 0:00:15 (22.32 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1068 Avgℓobjective: -3738.2954207755038 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.5984275713405254 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 18%|████▋ | ETA: 0:00:14 (22.14 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1073 Avgℓobjective: -3738.8699116678467 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.013516618431589855 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 20%|████▉ | ETA: 0:00:14 (21.90 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1077 Avgℓobjective: -3738.243097743961 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.6134660594501435 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 20%|█████▏ | ETA: 0:00:14 (21.55 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1081 Avgℓobjective: -3737.841958750766 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.4770913297470679 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 22%|█████▌ | ETA: 0:00:13 (21.08 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1086 Avgℓobjective: -3738.5696968420425 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.021643718713746873 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 23%|█████▊ | ETA: 0:00:13 (20.50 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1091 Avgℓobjective: -3738.518403308591 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.32236342624493863 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 24%|██████ | ETA: 0:00:12 (20.39 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1096 Avgℓobjective: -3738.5035368435274 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.471226311751355 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 25%|██████▎ | ETA: 0:00:12 (20.38 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 1 logobjective: -49566.98569141124 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.0 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -49570.509063758145                         Computing... 31%|███████▉ | ETA: 0:00:11 (19.52 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 26 logobjective: -4943.823056277593 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.0 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -4947.117604234665                         Computing... 36%|█████████ | ETA: 0:00:09 (18.34 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 44 logobjective: -3736.7633361962794 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 8.938659398578184e-173 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -3737.711080448317                         Computing... 37%|█████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:09 (18.48 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 49 logobjective: -3735.4950929435718 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 8.620687613443765e-12 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -3735.882044129621                         Computing... 39%|█████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:09 (18.25 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1055 Avgℓobjective: -3738.245478505366 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.7805023667008123 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 40%|██████████ | ETA: 0:00:09 (18.32 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 60 logobjective: -3735.8684529227753 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 3.3015647038701515e-20 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3736.2543530707153                         Computing... 41%|██████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:08 (18.05 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1064 Avgℓobjective: -3738.687804083649 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9600689671229368 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 43%|██████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:08 (17.75 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1070 Avgℓobjective: -3738.7080351291734 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8451652964994105 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 44%|███████████ | ETA: 0:00:08 (17.61 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 77 logobjective: -3736.3063976129774 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.04824960794005111 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -3737.494849072308                         Computing... 45%|███████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:08 (17.60 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1080 Avgℓobjective: -3738.5040182254197 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.317676734520711 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 47%|███████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:07 (17.32 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1088 Avgℓobjective: -3739.7894078133636 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.970856038995642 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 49%|████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:07 (17.01 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1095 Avgℓobjective: -3739.402828715173 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.4332232596017809 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 52%|█████████████ | ETA: 0:00:06 (16.35 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1006 Avgℓobjective: -27761.434429617817 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.7667210645521809 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 65%|████████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:04 (15.49 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1058 Avgℓobjective: -3739.209454562324 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.2292601857125418 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 66%|████████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:04 (15.59 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1062 Avgℓobjective: -3738.358990863585 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.4317547077659636 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 66%|████████████████▋ | ETA: 0:00:04 (15.66 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 66 logobjective: -3735.506168672055 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 6.272235863864946e-58 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3735.909008849473                         Computing... 67%|████████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:04 (15.79 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1067 Avgℓobjective: -3738.283950080225 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.44082837494514554 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 68%|█████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:04 (15.80 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 73 logobjective: -3736.4979152088085 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 5.137585283709073e-72 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -3737.0984977613098                         Computing... 69%|█████████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:04 (15.89 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 76 logobjective: -3735.523080536977 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.9178889317499878e-26 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3736.0609640090565                         Computing... 70%|█████████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:04 (15.94 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1078 Avgℓobjective: -3738.491043053128 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.6393129802172 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 70%|█████████████████▋ | ETA: 0:00:04 (16.00 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1081 Avgℓobjective: -3738.06467851264 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.45485970254184144 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 71%|█████████████████▉ | ETA: 0:00:04 (15.99 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 86 logobjective: -3735.5190819175646 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.511133299230606e-20 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3735.5831155541478                         Computing... 72%|██████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:04 (16.10 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1088 Avgℓobjective: -3738.9228822095424 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8701116011894884 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 73%|██████████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:03 (16.18 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1091 Avgℓobjective: -3738.2836652663473 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.24984738379516072 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 74%|██████████████████▍ | ETA: 0:00:03 (16.22 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 95 logobjective: -3735.699141952582 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.0004664077708873946 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3735.9160543473113                         Computing... 74%|██████████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:03 (16.34 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1096 Avgℓobjective: -3738.3241055553826 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.2510812685337265 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 75%|██████████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:03 (16.40 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1099 Avgℓobjective: -3738.26349233374 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.1639385517594295 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 81%|████████████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:02 (15.97 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1024 Avgℓobjective: -3769.410504294745 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.845462893875157 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 82%|████████████████████▋ | ETA: 0:00:02 (16.09 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 30 logobjective: -3735.9396634901723 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 3.459103828538145e-30 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3736.387828532657                         Computing... 87%|█████████████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:02 (15.40 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1047 Avgℓobjective: -3738.1954102498817 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9033511059353961 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 92%|███████████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:01 (14.75 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1066 Avgℓobjective: -3738.740303354733 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9490070634401715 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 96%|████████████████████████▏| ETA: 0:00:00 (14.41 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1085 Avgℓobjective: -3738.4308436354167 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8301917307701867 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 98%|████████████████████████▋| ETA: 0:00:00 (14.28 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 94 logobjective: -3735.2995441566577 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.00029078074505078016 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -3736.7250303359797                         Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:11 (14.22 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1099 Avgℓobjective: -3738.633580804174 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.14320921224236138 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -8898.125, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.877. NUTS sampler had 53 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.667 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.756 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 49, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 4, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -18322.387, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.495. NUTS sampler had 49 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.656 (3) number of steps and depth of 0.833 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 45, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 4, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -8841.796, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.719. NUTS sampler had 52 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.611 (2) number of steps and depth of 0.8 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 47, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 5, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -8110.309, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3738.602. NUTS sampler had 46 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.7 (3) number of steps and depth of 0.822 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 41, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 5, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -9322.816, variance: 1.3211604241e7 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -3738.087, variance: 0.115 Total number of jittering steps: 233. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.283, 0.351, 0.64, 0.874, 0.98]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.75, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 2: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -14108.689, variance: 6.5420403255e7 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -3739.139, variance: 1.382 Total number of jittering steps: 231. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.196, 0.285, 0.65, 0.869, 0.999]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 3: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -10097.426, variance: 4.808001518e6 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -3738.263, variance: 0.094 Total number of jittering steps: 229. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.693, 0.171, 0.445, 0.876, 0.997]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 4: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -14653.5, variance: 7.5305226027e7 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -3738.634, variance: 0.553 Total number of jittering steps: 179. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.598, 0.21, 0.575, 0.822, 0.971]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 6.775]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.212 │ 0.262 │ 0.019 │ -0.255 │ 0.045 │ 0.144 │ 0.411 │ 0.738 │ 206.44 │ 242.525 │ 1.052 │ │ σ │ 9.429 │ 2.603 │ 0.344 │ 2.774 │ 9.77 │ 9.978 │ 10.142 │ 10.592 │ 74.85 │ 70.239 │ 1.062 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Computing... 0%| | ETA: 0:05:00 ( 0.38 s/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1100 Avgℓobjective: -3280.1354532730393 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.3123615495583977 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 2%|▌ | ETA: 0:00:38 (47.98 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1108 Avgℓobjective: -1691.6839500096585 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.7327948134582439 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 12%|███ | ETA: 0:00:08 (11.55 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1148 Avgℓobjective: -1607.8772143324811 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9837877477249424 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 16%|████ | ETA: 0:00:07 ( 9.85 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1163 Avgℓobjective: -1601.1795779912918 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.1211341862749151 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 19%|████▊ | ETA: 0:00:06 ( 9.05 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1175 Avgℓobjective: -1600.9382001663694 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.358870005533644 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 22%|█████▋ | ETA: 0:00:05 ( 8.26 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1189 Avgℓobjective: -1600.5971476556394 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.4996592458523725 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 26%|██████▌ | ETA: 0:00:05 ( 7.76 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1102 Avgℓobjective: -2559.913429010602 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9924985149319213 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 31%|███████▊ | ETA: 0:00:04 ( 6.93 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1122 Avgℓobjective: -1610.5787534010506 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8025695137482349 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 44%|██████████▉ | ETA: 0:00:03 ( 5.57 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1173 Avgℓobjective: -1601.4075883609162 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.19720213860108127 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 49%|████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:02 ( 5.29 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 197 logobjective: -1600.6491470119608 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 4.3114878936550575e-23 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1602.2375160637503                         Computing... 53%|█████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:02 ( 5.31 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1112 Avgℓobjective: -1657.6899052453082 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.993429674362849 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 60%|██████████████▉ | ETA: 0:00:02 ( 4.97 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 139 logobjective: -1600.9143889317634 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.0583345635286272e-12 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1601.1650740683458                         Computing... 66%|████████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 4.69 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1163 Avgℓobjective: -1601.565686460838 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.29777502200498673 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 72%|██████████████████▏ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 4.46 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 190 logobjective: -1601.3834267459374 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 6.307211408769297e-33 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1602.1726834079798                         Computing... 78%|███████████████████▋ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 4.50 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1113 Avgℓobjective: -1630.4472273024653 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.764784548656347 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 85%|█████████████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 4.32 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1138 Avgℓobjective: -1601.7089627806613 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8674679481819794 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 91%|██████████████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 4.21 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1162 Avgℓobjective: -1601.1330480628262 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.5210104281106918 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 96%|████████████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 4.21 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1182 Avgℓobjective: -1600.9913480909477 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.054446622010916934 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 99%|████████████████████████▊| ETA: 0:00:00 ( 4.23 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1194 Avgℓobjective: -1602.4931513859603 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.6713730606225341 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:03 ( 4.24 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1199 Avgℓobjective: -1601.1690435060702 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.41279358047570686 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1601.331, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1600.529. NUTS sampler had 52 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.5 (2) number of steps and depth of 0.733 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 45, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 7, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1603.751, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1600.553. NUTS sampler had 54 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.489 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.744 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 49, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 5, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1600.699, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1601.217. NUTS sampler had 42 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.556 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.878 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 36, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 6, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1602.291, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1600.686. NUTS sampler had 46 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.489 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.789 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 35, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 11, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1649.909, variance: 9662.595 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1601.526, variance: 0.48 Total number of jittering steps: 288. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.414, 0.399, 0.799, 0.94, 0.994]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 5.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 2: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1657.19, variance: 4783.287 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1601.309, variance: 0.474 Total number of jittering steps: 258. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.47, 0.063, 0.63, 0.898, 0.999]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 4.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 3: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1657.959, variance: 12811.335 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1601.702, variance: 0.235 Total number of jittering steps: 259. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.713, -0.021, 0.603, 0.923, 0.995]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 4: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1735.154, variance: 70471.348 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1601.169, variance: 0.566 Total number of jittering steps: 292. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.241, 0.175, 0.713, 0.917, 1.0]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 5.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ -0.026 │ 0.059 │ 0.006 │ -0.113 │ -0.053 │ -0.026 │ -0.004 │ 0.046 │ 266.411 │ 71.617 │ 1.052 │ │ σ │ 1.031 │ 0.092 │ 0.012 │ 0.881 │ 1.018 │ 1.033 │ 1.048 │ 1.086 │ 144.281 │ 59.526 │ 1.083 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Computing... 0%|▏ | ETA: 0:03:55 ( 0.59 s/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 2 logobjective: -1079.8232668525707 Temperature: 0.289050497374996 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.31301091036939543 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -1080.1907697625957                         Computing... 52%|█████████████ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 6.95 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 8 logobjective: -1589.5926910284563 Temperature: 0.425557483188341 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.5362843852392115 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -1590.0647986499307                         Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:01 ( 3.82 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 100 logobjective: -3735.437336931283 Temperature: 0.9998636296729204 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9997278346783417 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 63 ℓH: -3735.678101730642 Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1868.144, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.373. NUTS sampler had 26 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 18.756 (79) number of steps and depth of 2.144 (6). Divergences in: Warmup: 26, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1869.526, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.303. NUTS sampler had 35 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 59.5 (15) number of steps and depth of 2.4 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 35, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.649, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3737.345. NUTS sampler had 23 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 11.978 (7) number of steps and depth of 1.944 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 23, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.745, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.437. NUTS sampler had 17 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 10.389 (63) number of steps and depth of 1.933 (5). Divergences in: Warmup: 17, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.155 │ 0.285 │ 0.085 │ -0.405 │ 0.04 │ 0.168 │ 0.299 │ 0.73 │ 11.331 │ 17.963 │ 1.324 │ │ σ │ 9.92 │ 0.272 │ 0.098 │ 9.455 │ 9.793 │ 9.973 │ 10.114 │ 10.318 │ 10.146 │ 5.633 │ 1.389 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Computing... 0%|▏ | ETA: 0:01:57 ( 0.29 s/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 102 logobjective: -1079.914977697063 Temperature: 0.289050497374996 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9998669223347451 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 127 ℓH: -1080.2099676413727                         Computing... 12%|███ | ETA: 0:00:05 (14.42 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 148 logobjective: -3646.359374067079 Temperature: 0.9758729785823308 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9963170726893339 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 11 ℓH: -3647.285098498336                         Computing... 39%|█████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:02 ( 8.05 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 157 logobjective: -3699.207985361876 Temperature: 0.9900481981330957 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9999913445474233 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 7 ℓH: -3699.243126018346                         Computing... 75%|██████████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 4.70 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 101 logobjective: -1080.3427343247708 Temperature: 0.289050497374996 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9999162381136268 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 63 ℓH: -1080.393851918417                         Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:01 ( 3.74 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 200 logobjective: -3739.3863425718487 Temperature: 0.9998636296729204 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9883485726842672 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 15 ℓH: -3739.8052124135925 Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1868.376, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3734.964. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 26.222 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.889 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1868.224, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.511. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 80.933 (29) number of steps and depth of 4.3 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1868.899, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.32. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 26.889 (39) number of steps and depth of 4.089 (5). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1869.48, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3739.386. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 18.356 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.578 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.278 │ 0.274 │ 0.023 │ -0.259 │ 0.085 │ 0.304 │ 0.461 │ 0.796 │ 136.609 │ 131.956 │ 1.033 │ │ σ │ 10.007 │ 0.235 │ 0.015 │ 9.573 │ 9.852 │ 10.004 │ 10.163 │ 10.445 │ 259.157 │ 248.41 │ 1.009 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Computing... 0%|▏ | ETA: 0:02:03 ( 0.31 s/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1000 Avgℓobjective: -1080.8711792073886 Temperature: 0.289050497374996 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.22777723263088684 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 31%|███████▊ | ETA: 0:00:02 ( 5.84 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1031 Avgℓobjective: -3330.933467096309 Temperature: 0.8909031788043871 ESS: 3.999444598736795 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.04335347936224304 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 59%|██████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 3.58 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1059 Avgℓobjective: -3710.2547695425683 Temperature: 0.9926084586557181 ESS: 3.9999995208148857 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.5131999162937824 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 93%|███████████████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 2.55 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1093 Avgℓobjective: -3737.8580621440024 Temperature: 0.9997515449181605 ESS: 3.9999999990242934 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.5613298657988838 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:00 ( 2.44 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1099 Avgℓobjective: -3737.9245738108393 Temperature: 0.9998636296729204 ESS: 3.9999999984462837 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.468115870511318 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1870.003, variance: 4.061 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -3737.925, variance: 0.255 Total number of jittering steps: 117. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.388, 0.145, 0.457, 0.652, 0.945]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.775]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.976, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.232 │ 0.345 │ 0.04 │ -0.411 │ -0.005 │ 0.213 │ 0.465 │ 0.926 │ 75.635 │ 95.695 │ 1.101 │ │ σ │ 10.005 │ 0.264 │ 0.016 │ 9.466 │ 9.837 │ 10.007 │ 10.191 │ 10.53 │ 253.704 │ 174.41 │ 1.034 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Computing... 62%|███████████████▍ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 0.41 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1161 Avgℓobjective: -1550.9693265037358 Temperature: 0.9939401985084158 ESS: 3.999998264128986 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9751086548234751 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:00 ( 0.74 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1199 Avgℓobjective: -1559.8999700721681 Temperature: 0.9998636296729204 ESS: 3.999999998963845 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.09199219205579551 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -790.061, variance: 6.089 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1559.9, variance: 1.671 Total number of jittering steps: 226. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.419, 0.093, 0.396, 0.836, 1.0]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.985, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ -0.026 │ 0.032 │ 0.002 │ -0.094 │ -0.048 │ -0.026 │ -0.005 │ 0.035 │ 176.094 │ 150.577 │ 1.037 │ │ σ │ 0.995 │ 0.03 │ 0.004 │ 0.942 │ 0.978 │ 0.994 │ 1.013 │ 1.056 │ 62.166 │ 45.068 │ 1.048 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Computing... 0%| | ETA: 0:09:56 ( 0.75 s/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1000 Avgℓobjective: -13600.871606312277 Temperature: 0.289050497374996 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: NaN generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 13%|███▎ | ETA: 0:00:16 (22.70 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1050 Avgℓobjective: -3671.045391841777 Temperature: 0.9820137900379085 ESS: 3.999995669554592 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.5195366486250343 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 22%|█████▌ | ETA: 0:00:10 (15.35 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 89 logobjective: -3734.762275083573 Temperature: 0.9995904328350139 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.25001122907961454 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 4 ℓH: -3736.8219156559685                         Computing... 24%|██████▏ | ETA: 0:00:09 (14.53 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1097 Avgℓobjective: -3737.6125041447194 Temperature: 0.9998334419352227 ESS: 3.9999999999587743 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8109206334756265 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 31%|███████▊ | ETA: 0:00:07 (12.85 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1022 Avgℓobjective: -2874.8205198688725 Temperature: 0.7685247834990178 ESS: 3.979281411084107 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.3157068601488737 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 33%|████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:08 (14.02 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1030 Avgℓobjective: -3293.36417020931 Temperature: 0.8807970779778823 ESS: 3.999737347973736 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8291687356483557 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 33%|████████▍ | ETA: 0:00:08 (14.15 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 34 logobjective: -3396.5984963957017 Temperature: 0.9088770389851438 accepted: true acceptancerate: 4.086184849627635e-121 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -3397.078266384672                         Computing... 34%|████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:08 (14.68 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1035 Avgℓobjective: -3456.0642136500082 Temperature: 0.9241418199787566 ESS: 3.9998125674494442 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.6573276252781329 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 34%|████████▋ | ETA: 0:00:08 (15.00 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1037 Avgℓobjective: -3504.1102387404285 Temperature: 0.9370266439430035 ESS: 3.9997424565123803 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.38229110492969615 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 35%|████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:08 (15.32 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1038 Avgℓobjective: -3525.051347437368 Temperature: 0.9426758241011313 ESS: 3.9995996227988697 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.3323320212465716 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 35%|████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:08 (15.58 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1040 Avgℓobjective: -3561.372978095269 Temperature: 0.9525741268224334 ESS: 3.9999220739446906 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.6765778325131535 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 36%|████████▉ | ETA: 0:00:08 (15.90 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1041 Avgℓobjective: -3578.472569670824 Temperature: 0.9568927450589139 ESS: 3.999968218755176 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.23979508124274393 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 36%|█████████ | ETA: 0:00:08 (16.34 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1043 Avgℓobjective: -3606.6694260235695 Temperature: 0.9644288107273639 ESS: 3.99968190105348 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8147048702358595 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 42%|██████████▋ | ETA: 0:00:07 (14.36 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1069 Avgℓobjective: -3728.3772441084116 Temperature: 0.997268039236989 ESS: 3.9999999713753907 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.02177592271762041 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 46%|███████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:06 (13.70 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 85 logobjective: -3734.995728276221 Temperature: 0.9993891206405656 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.1258572188695828e-43 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 2 ℓH: -3737.906704363715                         Computing... 48%|████████████▏ | ETA: 0:00:05 (13.32 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1093 Avgℓobjective: -3737.2325084748218 Temperature: 0.9997515449181605 ESS: 3.9999999999661426 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.4441583989378849 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 53%|█████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:05 (12.41 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 13 logobjective: -2110.867852926646 Temperature: 0.549833997312478 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.0 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -2111.7742514173615                         Computing... 58%|██████████████▍ | ETA: 0:00:05 (13.43 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 31 logobjective: -3290.1479757579878 Temperature: 0.8807970779778823 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.0052926141070512e-28 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3290.334185392181                         Computing... 58%|██████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:05 (13.61 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 33 logobjective: -3364.642349450335 Temperature: 0.9002495108803148 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.0 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3366.739286619337                         Computing... 58%|██████████████▋ | ETA: 0:00:05 (13.81 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1033 Avgℓobjective: -3398.367705709112 Temperature: 0.9088770389851438 ESS: 3.9999486460680402 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.4682165876895453 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 59%|██████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:05 (13.97 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1034 Avgℓobjective: -3427.289270972252 Temperature: 0.9168273035060777 ESS: 3.999631134679723 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.2905378674002341 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 60%|██████████████▉ | ETA: 0:00:05 (14.35 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1037 Avgℓobjective: -3503.3021316780982 Temperature: 0.9370266439430035 ESS: 3.999918496551181 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.03015275867602396 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 60%|███████████████ | ETA: 0:00:05 (14.48 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1040 Avgℓobjective: -3560.7082302269537 Temperature: 0.9525741268224334 ESS: 3.9998986595609685 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.57242556297405 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 61%|███████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:05 (14.65 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1042 Avgℓobjective: -3591.8008798809324 Temperature: 0.9608342772032357 ESS: 3.999993077072309 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.0411714344549749 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 61%|███████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:05 (14.84 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 45 logobjective: -3617.005733620691 Temperature: 0.9677045353015495 accepted: true acceptancerate: 2.3654592782940594e-142 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 2 ℓH: -3617.5085958664267                         Computing... 70%|█████████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:03 (13.48 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1079 Avgℓobjective: -3734.6430117284535 Temperature: 0.9989932291799144 ESS: 3.9999999993782085 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.1437053327303614 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 73%|██████████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:03 (13.14 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 93 logobjective: -3735.848494624216 Temperature: 0.9997254218438986 accepted: true acceptancerate: 8.907391324996682e-8 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -3736.317338930414                         Computing... 78%|███████████████████▋ | ETA: 0:00:02 (12.40 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1013 Avgℓobjective: -5728.581015724471 Temperature: 0.574442516811659 ESS: 3.95102264602657 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.4952274932069164 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 83%|████████████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:02 (12.44 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1032 Avgℓobjective: -3365.954213599992 Temperature: 0.9002495108803148 ESS: 3.9998528834139297 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.6776678398326923 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 84%|█████████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:02 (12.71 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1036 Avgℓobjective: -3479.9834104207957 Temperature: 0.9308615796566533 ESS: 3.999948200381309 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.3025801216187486 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 85%|█████████████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:02 (12.83 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1039 Avgℓobjective: -3544.408377320527 Temperature: 0.9478464369215823 ESS: 3.9997173466152334 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9465001315930494 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 86%|█████████████████████▍ | ETA: 0:00:02 (12.93 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1041 Avgℓobjective: -3577.4521640894636 Temperature: 0.9568927450589139 ESS: 3.9999499896925 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9380736282176678 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 86%|█████████████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:01 (13.15 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1043 Avgℓobjective: -3604.828095130678 Temperature: 0.9644288107273639 ESS: 3.99999902015652 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.5649958898835581 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 86%|█████████████████████▋ | ETA: 0:00:01 (13.24 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1045 Avgℓobjective: -3629.271237327359 Temperature: 0.9706877692486436 ESS: 3.9999944411198367 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.5391111261931235 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 87%|█████████████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:01 (13.41 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1047 Avgℓobjective: -3648.8817927752552 Temperature: 0.9758729785823308 ESS: 3.9999893605612606 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.4836676175580089 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 94%|███████████████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:01 (12.81 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1076 Avgℓobjective: -3733.5757864286256 Temperature: 0.9986414800495711 ESS: 3.9999999898185123 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.27024881666504896 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 97%|████████████████████████▎| ETA: 0:00:00 (12.63 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1086 Avgℓobjective: -3736.9971791940798 Temperature: 0.9994997988929205 ESS: 3.999999995012563 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.48167177435906555 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 99%|████████████████████████▊| ETA: 0:00:00 (12.51 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1094 Avgℓobjective: -3738.468882826579 Temperature: 0.9997751832297667 ESS: 3.999999998761245 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.020976844859264654 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:09 (12.48 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1099 Avgℓobjective: -3737.9856827315293 Temperature: 0.9998636296729204 ESS: 3.999999999443175 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9089155567285022 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -4098.395, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.223. NUTS sampler had 53 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.556 (3) number of steps and depth of 0.711 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 47, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 6, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -4240.235, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3738.397. NUTS sampler had 51 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.767 (3) number of steps and depth of 0.833 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 42, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 9, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2092.83, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3734.939. NUTS sampler had 47 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.833 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.878 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 43, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 4, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -8745.287, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.284. NUTS sampler had 47 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.556 (3) number of steps and depth of 0.811 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 42, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 5, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -4093.29, variance: 30.459 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -3737.716, variance: 0.145 Total number of jittering steps: 192. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.564, 0.145, 0.454, 0.799, 0.946]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [1.0, 3.806, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 2: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -4081.176, variance: 83709.878 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -3738.42, variance: 2.191 Total number of jittering steps: 195. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.407, 0.011, 0.39, 0.676, 0.943]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.75, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [1.25, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 3: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -2087.519, variance: 29.908 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -3738.09, variance: 0.823 Total number of jittering steps: 196. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.523, 0.148, 0.437, 0.669, 0.959]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [2.546, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 4: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -8093.206, variance: 1.017982357e6 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -3737.986, variance: 0.382 Total number of jittering steps: 195. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.511, 0.057, 0.568, 0.823, 0.97]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [1.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.201 │ 0.308 │ 0.024 │ -0.345 │ -0.006 │ 0.153 │ 0.419 │ 0.817 │ 159.234 │ 161.926 │ 1.035 │ │ σ │ 9.508 │ 1.911 │ 0.471 │ 3.412 │ 9.765 │ 9.975 │ 10.151 │ 10.624 │ 37.747 │ 28.469 │ 1.083 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Computing... 0%| | ETA: 0:05:06 ( 0.38 s/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1100 Avgℓobjective: -937.7688287835126 Temperature: 0.289050497374996 ESS: 3.999999999910658 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.43461781368192964 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 8%|█▉ | ETA: 0:00:11 (14.26 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 131 logobjective: -1387.662101912292 Temperature: 0.8807970779778823 accepted: true acceptancerate: 3.342311485098639e-221 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1388.2227868471036                         Computing... 15%|███▊ | ETA: 0:00:06 ( 8.33 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 160 logobjective: -1562.7371940138698 Temperature: 0.9926084586557181 accepted: true acceptancerate: 2.3612739821344294e-39 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1565.752492921902                         Computing... 21%|█████▎ | ETA: 0:00:04 ( 6.45 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1184 Avgℓobjective: -1574.43163457261 Temperature: 0.9993891206405656 ESS: 3.9999999713401264 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.894576693910873 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 29%|███████▎ | ETA: 0:00:03 ( 5.15 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 117 logobjective: -1017.4088294977544 Temperature: 0.6456563062257954 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.00033117030043272925 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -1018.467872259835                         Computing... 37%|█████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:02 ( 4.45 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1146 Avgℓobjective: -1533.4418995643166 Temperature: 0.973403006423134 ESS: 3.9999965512667472 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.7749182132270309 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 45%|███████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:02 ( 3.95 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1178 Avgℓobjective: -1572.758774950087 Temperature: 0.9988874639671398 ESS: 3.999999968362571 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.647584621427238 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 53%|█████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 3.56 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1112 Avgℓobjective: -881.1334820807036 Temperature: 0.549833997312478 ESS: 2.4105328853565617 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.6788290131919106 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 61%|███████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 3.35 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1144 Avgℓobjective: -1524.4409719079197 Temperature: 0.9677045353015495 ESS: 3.999737480707863 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.10864092540825204 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 69%|█████████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 3.15 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1176 Avgℓobjective: -1572.5416462204785 Temperature: 0.9986414800495711 ESS: 3.9999999947470677 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.5143929219055665 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 79%|███████████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 2.96 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 116 logobjective: -980.4930657451453 Temperature: 0.6224593312018546 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.0007783543285359878 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -980.6727073936406                         Computing... 87%|█████████████████████▋ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 2.91 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 147 logobjective: -1534.4420948078555 Temperature: 0.973403006423134 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.0 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1535.8720654920114                         Computing... 92%|███████████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 2.88 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1167 Avgℓobjective: -1571.1573540165477 Temperature: 0.9966651926925867 ESS: 3.9999979143427926 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.09134252338508624 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 98%|████████████████████████▋| ETA: 0:00:00 ( 2.82 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1193 Avgℓobjective: -1573.7542197973266 Temperature: 0.9997515449181605 ESS: 3.999999997735518 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.006115773510872502 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:02 ( 2.80 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1199 Avgℓobjective: -1574.1110214434111 Temperature: 0.9998636296729204 ESS: 3.9999999999258415 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9054270495970107 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -903.438, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1576.357. NUTS sampler had 45 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.689 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.9 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 39, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 6, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -928.707, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1575.285. NUTS sampler had 31 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.578 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.978 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 25, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 6, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -831.649, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1574.154. NUTS sampler had 49 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.611 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.822 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 37, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 12, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -788.049, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1574.505. NUTS sampler had 43 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.656 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.9 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 32, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 11, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1057.073, variance: 34.626 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1574.757, variance: 1.356 Total number of jittering steps: 125. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.567, 0.069, 0.419, 0.728, 0.974]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 6.55]. Quantiles for ESS: [2.386, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 2: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -879.491, variance: 1122.932 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1574.932, variance: 1.423 Total number of jittering steps: 186. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.542, 0.185, 0.614, 0.857, 0.992]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [2.967, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 3: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -826.988, variance: 136.81 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1574.63, variance: 0.22 Total number of jittering steps: 229. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.753, 0.13, 0.587, 0.83, 1.0]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [2.972, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 4: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -788.497, variance: 1.092 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1574.111, variance: 0.102 Total number of jittering steps: 150. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.545, 0.034, 0.366, 0.702, 0.979]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.992, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.031 │ 0.048 │ 0.003 │ -0.045 │ 0.006 │ 0.029 │ 0.049 │ 0.105 │ 321.709 │ 170.957 │ 1.007 │ │ σ │ 1.029 │ 0.124 │ 0.015 │ 0.969 │ 0.998 │ 1.014 │ 1.028 │ 1.185 │ 102.189 │ 44.807 │ 1.034 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Computing... 0%|▏ | ETA: 0:04:21 ( 0.66 s/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 1 logobjective: -1867.8799667514077 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.8663145909811866 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1867.8941454291996                         Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:01 ( 3.81 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 100 logobjective: -1868.7028090586434 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9999607625955212 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 15 ℓH: -1869.0950799838947 Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.993, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1868.032. NUTS sampler had 22 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 12.067 (47) number of steps and depth of 2.0 (5). Divergences in: Warmup: 22, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.954, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1867.938. NUTS sampler had 22 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 11.633 (47) number of steps and depth of 1.956 (5). Divergences in: Warmup: 22, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1868.704, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1868.629. NUTS sampler had 20 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 26.056 (7) number of steps and depth of 2.256 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 20, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1868.325, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1868.703. NUTS sampler had 18 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 10.844 (15) number of steps and depth of 2.0 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 18, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.134 │ 0.294 │ 0.092 │ -0.49 │ -0.055 │ 0.09 │ 0.362 │ 0.634 │ 10.454 │ 36.397 │ 1.38 │ │ σ │ 10.058 │ 0.257 │ 0.03 │ 9.566 │ 9.86 │ 10.002 │ 10.28 │ 10.474 │ 77.03 │ 173.527 │ 1.081 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Computing... 0%|▏ | ETA: 0:02:09 ( 0.32 s/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 101 logobjective: -1868.569334030872 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9986108298657382 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 31 ℓH: -1869.5546481329868                         Computing... 20%|█████ | ETA: 0:00:03 ( 9.29 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 121 logobjective: -1869.2723703809615 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.999706053364661 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 47 ℓH: -1870.5677000746844                         Computing... 48%|████████████ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 4.45 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 149 logobjective: -1869.6140615307195 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.0 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 15 ℓH: -1870.9992870025205                         Computing... 83%|████████████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 2.92 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 183 logobjective: -1873.230450080874 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9945870242109623 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 47 ℓH: -1874.0259416253132                         Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:01 ( 2.54 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 200 logobjective: -1867.7840185398718 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9994690389044901 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 15 ℓH: -1868.74836988976 Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1868.856, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1868.143. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 18.6 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.622 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1868.474, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1868.244. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 29.756 (31) number of steps and depth of 4.311 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1869.062, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1867.972. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 25.244 (15) number of steps and depth of 4.056 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.788, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1867.784. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 20.4 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.644 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.262 │ 0.497 │ 0.056 │ -0.772 │ -0.093 │ 0.268 │ 0.595 │ 1.206 │ 76.912 │ 96.764 │ 1.048 │ │ σ │ 10.045 │ 0.305 │ 0.019 │ 9.518 │ 9.828 │ 10.024 │ 10.251 │ 10.641 │ 255.421 │ 272.288 │ 1.008 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Computing... 0%|▏ | ETA: 0:02:08 ( 0.32 s/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1000 Avgℓobjective: -1869.2856463891535 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9823001420538695 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 26%|██████▍ | ETA: 0:00:02 ( 8.03 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1025 Avgℓobjective: -1869.9891399739683 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.32584611095413935 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 40%|██████████ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 5.94 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1039 Avgℓobjective: -1869.5560909592484 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.31806235154299445 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 51%|████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 5.17 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1051 Avgℓobjective: -1869.8014740615472 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.6737451950473866 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 79%|███████████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 3.69 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1078 Avgℓobjective: -1869.2170624379319 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.6428232074780384 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:01 ( 3.08 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1099 Avgℓobjective: -1869.9486230551076 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.6034591689537387 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1869.732, variance: 1.325 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1869.949, variance: 1.401 Total number of jittering steps: 117. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.418, 0.076, 0.322, 0.684, 0.928]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.243 │ 0.422 │ 0.044 │ -0.583 │ -0.06 │ 0.252 │ 0.559 │ 1.046 │ 94.139 │ 129.864 │ 1.014 │ │ σ │ 10.037 │ 0.34 │ 0.022 │ 9.4 │ 9.796 │ 10.038 │ 10.279 │ 10.655 │ 242.661 │ 189.737 │ 1.017 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Computing... 62%|███████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 0.40 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1162 Avgℓobjective: -787.2456480520883 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.6267106794495757 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:00 ( 0.73 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1199 Avgℓobjective: -788.5307634639648 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8083091362250122 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -788.155, variance: 0.857 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -788.531, variance: 1.558 Total number of jittering steps: 201. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.067, 0.332, 0.625, 0.838, 0.959]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 7.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.017 │ 0.048 │ 0.005 │ -0.076 │ -0.015 │ 0.014 │ 0.053 │ 0.107 │ 95.393 │ 74.252 │ 1.024 │ │ σ │ 1.014 │ 0.028 │ 0.003 │ 0.97 │ 0.993 │ 1.011 │ 1.033 │ 1.075 │ 116.915 │ 82.666 │ 1.019 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Computing... 0%| | ETA: 0:11:10 ( 0.84 s/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1000 Avgℓobjective: -22973.66692718849 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: NaN generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 13%|███▎ | ETA: 0:00:12 (17.61 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1012 Avgℓobjective: -5168.1376392879065 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8788613764867206 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 24%|█████▉ | ETA: 0:00:15 (23.82 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 24 logobjective: -1867.7484360374551 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.3970759104676983e-18 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1868.99790491063                         Computing... 24%|██████▏ | ETA: 0:00:14 (23.65 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1024 Avgℓobjective: -2297.1783391159197 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.6098972134163361 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 26%|██████▍ | ETA: 0:00:14 (23.24 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1025 Avgℓobjective: -2297.103714007461 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9234001187476011 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 26%|██████▋ | ETA: 0:00:14 (23.02 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1026 Avgℓobjective: -2297.3484343304176 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.5079819262518339 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 28%|██████▉ | ETA: 0:00:13 (22.69 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1027 Avgℓobjective: -2296.5882026155514 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.7904008126720904 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 32%|████████ | ETA: 0:00:11 (21.13 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1031 Avgℓobjective: -1869.2443080525277 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.030078458207145553 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 34%|████████▍ | ETA: 0:00:11 (20.70 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1033 Avgℓobjective: -2099.6751092044497 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.5119969947243792 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 35%|████████▋ | ETA: 0:00:11 (20.43 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 35 logobjective: -2411.3519868759167 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.0 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -2411.8480912046807                         Computing... 36%|████████▉ | ETA: 0:00:10 (20.31 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 36 logobjective: -2411.3519868759167 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.0 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -2411.529921664851                         Computing... 36%|█████████▏ | ETA: 0:00:10 (20.18 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1036 Avgℓobjective: -1887.410059814954 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8583452866119052 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 38%|█████████▍ | ETA: 0:00:10 (20.04 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1037 Avgℓobjective: -1886.8127558422898 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.6560743258615448 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 42%|██████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:09 (18.44 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 43 logobjective: -1871.5365108787985 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.0846363271111922e-148 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1871.7726800354424                         Computing... 44%|███████████▏ | ETA: 0:00:08 (17.84 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1044 Avgℓobjective: -1869.8130453704396 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.06477854373286551 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 48%|███████████▉ | ETA: 0:00:07 (17.15 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1047 Avgℓobjective: -1870.12125912789 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.4972632721165929 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 50%|████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:07 (16.67 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1049 Avgℓobjective: -1870.1528864594823 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9089206151720868 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 52%|█████████████ | ETA: 0:00:06 (16.33 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1051 Avgℓobjective: -1869.8653031392098 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.8894562600857451 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 55%|█████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:06 (15.76 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 55 logobjective: -1869.7076007211797 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 2.30304797763925e-44 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 2 ℓH: -1870.0620808557621                         Computing... 57%|██████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:05 (15.47 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1056 Avgℓobjective: -1869.527175740438 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.07386930253720769 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 59%|██████████████▋ | ETA: 0:00:05 (15.32 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 59 logobjective: -1869.4496410755014 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 3.6158648132253286e-5 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -1869.4685700744892                         Computing... 60%|███████████████ | ETA: 0:00:05 (15.24 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 60 logobjective: -1867.6497414110222 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.18056128825447926 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -1868.7931172633653                         Computing... 62%|███████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:04 (14.87 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1062 Avgℓobjective: -1869.2454983535717 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.031482037015915953 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 65%|████████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:04 (14.53 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1064 Avgℓobjective: -1869.718706063976 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.022517778441678404 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 67%|████████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:04 (14.33 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1066 Avgℓobjective: -1870.1774672072181 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.5902660782564908 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 68%|█████████████████▏ | ETA: 0:00:04 (14.20 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 69 logobjective: -1868.8089026599505 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.2140487627005256e-10 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -1870.3892070094269                         Computing... 70%|█████████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:03 (14.15 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1069 Avgℓobjective: -1869.4947075777673 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.507015032047516 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 72%|██████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:03 (13.93 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1071 Avgℓobjective: -1869.1530608231737 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.503516439152751 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 74%|██████████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:03 (13.75 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1073 Avgℓobjective: -1869.317904720686 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.4004701858258183 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 76%|██████████████████▉ | ETA: 0:00:03 (13.62 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 76 logobjective: -1867.888227978026 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.317707104715855 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 5 ℓH: -1868.8858193327872                         Computing... 77%|███████████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:02 (13.56 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 78 logobjective: -1868.7120006477694 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.15535945203632606 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -1869.5447591623654                         Computing... 78%|███████████████████▋ | ETA: 0:00:02 (13.53 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 79 logobjective: -1869.3769474825956 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 2.1287411816647875e-10 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1870.2277959471962                         Computing... 80%|████████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:02 (13.42 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1079 Avgℓobjective: -1869.2499388683018 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8687544561407385 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 82%|████████████████████▍ | ETA: 0:00:02 (13.40 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1081 Avgℓobjective: -1870.1720220472798 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.1871790895811885 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 84%|█████████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:02 (13.20 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1083 Avgℓobjective: -1869.9412689585201 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.3756612654182675 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 86%|█████████████████████▍ | ETA: 0:00:02 (13.08 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 86 logobjective: -1868.7886934410328 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.016297714749019653 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -1868.9132965534463                         Computing... 87%|█████████████████████▉ | ETA: 0:00:01 (12.96 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 88 logobjective: -1867.6851503462926 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.17378228637933477 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1868.017325937739                         Computing... 89%|██████████████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:01 (12.91 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1088 Avgℓobjective: -1869.7503771268036 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.6661607148987974 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 91%|██████████████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:01 (12.86 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1090 Avgℓobjective: -1869.8863380773457 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.1730302167107123 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 93%|███████████████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:01 (12.69 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 94 logobjective: -1868.8929752618003 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.7183279877098828e-6 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1869.0278706392598                         Computing... 95%|███████████████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:00 (12.59 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 96 logobjective: -1869.2128405872077 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.7591648719566966e-14 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -1870.3717438070507                         Computing... 97%|████████████████████████▎| ETA: 0:00:00 (12.51 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1096 Avgℓobjective: -1870.4017601584649 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.1535143614067203 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 99%|████████████████████████▊| ETA: 0:00:00 (12.41 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 99 logobjective: -1868.210660657973 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.15340364191385433 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -1868.6360705812506                         Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:09 (12.35 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1099 Avgℓobjective: -1869.5014787622765 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.04143695120250035 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -12953.685, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1868.566. NUTS sampler had 39 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 2.033 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.911 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 36, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 3, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -3981.108, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1867.754. NUTS sampler had 41 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.856 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.867 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 37, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 4, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -8673.705, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1868.127. NUTS sampler had 36 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 2.022 (3) number of steps and depth of 0.911 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 33, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 3, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -8959.703, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1869.123. NUTS sampler had 37 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 2.089 (3) number of steps and depth of 0.944 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 33, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 4, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -10426.685, variance: 7.272574302e6 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1871.63, variance: 0.353 Total number of jittering steps: 191. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.409, 0.145, 0.522, 0.72, 0.966]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 8.775]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 2: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -6122.054, variance: 1.5989613485e7 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1869.912, variance: 1.308 Total number of jittering steps: 265. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.326, 0.138, 0.495, 0.782, 0.966]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 3: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -8329.162, variance: 2.612735863e7 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1870.057, variance: 2.694 Total number of jittering steps: 239. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.489, 0.174, 0.561, 0.846, 0.977]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 4: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -6337.598, variance: 2.1188930828e7 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1869.501, variance: 0.572 Total number of jittering steps: 151. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.464, 0.133, 0.575, 0.835, 0.971]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 6.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.266 │ 0.428 │ 0.026 │ -0.533 │ 0.016 │ 0.202 │ 0.56 │ 1.162 │ 290.086 │ 97.004 │ 1.016 │ │ σ │ 9.25 │ 2.391 │ 0.365 │ 2.307 │ 9.675 │ 9.976 │ 10.221 │ 10.769 │ 115.568 │ 56.951 │ 1.04 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Computing... 0%| | ETA: 0:05:52 ( 0.44 s/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1100 Avgℓobjective: -1455.188153204078 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.11253800338883668 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 5%|█▎ | ETA: 0:00:19 (24.55 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1105 Avgℓobjective: -890.4381022109526 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9822156823518368 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 9%|██▏ | ETA: 0:00:12 (17.09 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 109 logobjective: -780.6587877182066 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.33336343981030386 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -781.9578398941534                         Computing... 15%|███▊ | ETA: 0:00:07 (10.88 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1114 Avgℓobjective: -781.0777629374586 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9336653941969523 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 21%|█████▏ | ETA: 0:00:08 (12.41 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 121 logobjective: -780.3676325972325 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.001819420143021697 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -780.5269366875211                         Computing... 34%|████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:04 ( 7.90 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 135 logobjective: -780.9661630756605 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.0008886380151033478 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -784.709919940268                         Computing... 47%|███████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:03 ( 5.98 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1147 Avgℓobjective: -780.3360347652778 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.312494170985724 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 60%|███████████████ | ETA: 0:00:02 ( 4.91 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 161 logobjective: -780.2544010562117 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.22722959316677574 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -780.4744013605474                         Computing... 76%|███████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 4.06 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1175 Avgℓobjective: -780.361483680074 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.6525012789011406 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 91%|██████████████████████▉ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 3.51 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 192 logobjective: -780.2255612031007 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 3.5941619187801293e-71 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -784.3065866176364                         Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:02 ( 3.27 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1199 Avgℓobjective: -780.8554534376754 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.3581336159018975 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -783.872, Avg. final ℓposterior: -780.544. NUTS sampler had 29 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.7 (1) number of steps and depth of 1.0 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 24, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 5, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -780.575, Avg. final ℓposterior: -780.196. NUTS sampler had 28 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.644 (1) number of steps and depth of 1.022 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 22, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 6, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -783.701, Avg. final ℓposterior: -780.206. NUTS sampler had 32 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.778 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.978 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 26, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 6, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -781.244, Avg. final ℓposterior: -780.505. NUTS sampler had 26 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.667 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.989 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 23, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 3, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -799.697, variance: 1339.984 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -781.666, variance: 2.061 Total number of jittering steps: 193. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.41, 0.199, 0.536, 0.798, 0.966]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 8.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 2: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -794.661, variance: 759.6 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -780.469, variance: 0.198 Total number of jittering steps: 121. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.289, 0.155, 0.54, 0.722, 0.957]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 3: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -789.035, variance: 277.561 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -780.76, variance: 0.366 Total number of jittering steps: 158. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.237, 0.267, 0.612, 0.848, 0.96]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 4.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 4: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -781.437, variance: 0.732 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -780.855, variance: 1.268 Total number of jittering steps: 94. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.585, -0.03, 0.253, 0.577, 0.906]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ -0.073 │ 0.041 │ 0.002 │ -0.15 │ -0.103 │ -0.077 │ -0.042 │ 0.006 │ 280.196 │ 299.249 │ 1.001 │ │ σ │ 0.999 │ 0.034 │ 0.002 │ 0.942 │ 0.981 │ 0.999 │ 1.021 │ 1.051 │ 239.341 │ 259.2 │ 1.012 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Computing... 0%|▏ | ETA: 0:04:50 ( 0.73 s/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 1 logobjective: -1868.1259984399285 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.25017795818851435 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -1868.5039789215746                         Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:01 ( 4.42 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 100 logobjective: -2044.0363103256977 Temperature: 0.5460980646457352 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9999354448413731 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 127 ℓH: -2044.5970601027022 Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1885.976, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2040.15. NUTS sampler had 22 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 18.689 (127) number of steps and depth of 2.122 (6). Divergences in: Warmup: 22, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1886.578, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2042.236. NUTS sampler had 27 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 15.611 (31) number of steps and depth of 2.089 (5). Divergences in: Warmup: 27, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1886.002, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2040.588. NUTS sampler had 29 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 20.589 (15) number of steps and depth of 2.111 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 29, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1885.84, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2044.036. NUTS sampler had 16 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 34.844 (127) number of steps and depth of 2.367 (6). Divergences in: Warmup: 16, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.208 │ 0.302 │ 0.068 │ -0.331 │ 0.055 │ 0.203 │ 0.296 │ 1.022 │ 15.415 │ 21.588 │ 1.263 │ │ σ │ 10.049 │ 0.307 │ 0.054 │ 9.586 │ 9.849 │ 9.995 │ 10.259 │ 10.626 │ 40.749 │ 20.094 │ 1.109 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Computing... 0%|▏ | ETA: 0:02:21 ( 0.36 s/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 101 logobjective: -2041.8451445979915 Temperature: 0.5465413282544795 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9997426135173805 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 111 ℓH: -2042.9628712872404                         Computing... 10%|██▌ | ETA: 0:00:07 (20.34 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 110 logobjective: -2056.950117031341 Temperature: 0.5505112720162764 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9999996957627548 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 127 ℓH: -2059.815008252285                         Computing... 20%|████▉ | ETA: 0:00:04 (12.15 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 120 logobjective: -2073.022850606369 Temperature: 0.5548815705605304 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9996352459426219 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 31 ℓH: -2073.2399918577457                         Computing... 41%|██████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:02 ( 6.40 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 141 logobjective: -2106.5850151040627 Temperature: 0.5639213802039063 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.99970398002474 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 31 ℓH: -2106.786301676066                         Computing... 76%|███████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 3.78 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 177 logobjective: -2163.9306690182675 Temperature: 0.5789931432340637 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9904631879039367 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 23 ℓH: -2165.541513829379                         Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:01 ( 3.04 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 200 logobjective: -2199.555211194648 Temperature: 0.5883484625830675 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9868989599222585 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 23 ℓH: -2200.492433211325 Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2058.772, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2201.15. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 19.6 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.667 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2059.377, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2197.999. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 21.467 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.644 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2059.128, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2199.59. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 33.489 (3) number of steps and depth of 4.189 (2). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2058.129, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2199.555. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 35.911 (23) number of steps and depth of 4.089 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.311 │ 0.38 │ 0.037 │ -0.465 │ 0.069 │ 0.301 │ 0.508 │ 1.142 │ 112.346 │ 85.324 │ 1.018 │ │ σ │ 10.048 │ 0.289 │ 0.022 │ 9.536 │ 9.855 │ 10.04 │ 10.25 │ 10.643 │ 174.746 │ 193.803 │ 1.014 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Computing... 0%|▏ | ETA: 0:02:34 ( 0.39 s/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1000 Avgℓobjective: -1869.1138320694351 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.7306022417320018 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 26%|██████▍ | ETA: 0:00:03 ( 8.74 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1025 Avgℓobjective: -1914.6317266609885 Temperature: 0.5120650453944637 ESS: 3.999999792735914 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.579365421444566 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 47%|███████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 5.87 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1046 Avgℓobjective: -1952.3507778819805 Temperature: 0.5219744061763523 ESS: 3.9999995973593214 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.1440269203745808 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 57%|██████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 5.32 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1057 Avgℓobjective: -1970.9985856747671 Temperature: 0.5270844466088458 ESS: 3.9999979214630494 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8906710016872528 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 84%|████████████████████▉ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 4.02 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1083 Avgℓobjective: -2015.100893088189 Temperature: 0.5389466294044596 ESS: 3.999999515519608 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9836719694487379 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:01 ( 3.54 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1099 Avgℓobjective: -2043.3361829315572 Temperature: 0.5460980646457352 ESS: 3.9999999407483733 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.4759801679191281 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1887.914, variance: 0.14 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -2043.336, variance: 6.201 Total number of jittering steps: 120. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.421, 0.008, 0.354, 0.742, 0.974]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.775]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.275 │ 0.357 │ 0.035 │ -0.439 │ 0.05 │ 0.3 │ 0.538 │ 0.889 │ 110.101 │ 99.456 │ 1.046 │ │ σ │ 10.046 │ 0.306 │ 0.018 │ 9.47 │ 9.808 │ 10.048 │ 10.253 │ 10.652 │ 269.321 │ 175.906 │ 1.026 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Computing... 47%|███████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 0.55 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1147 Avgℓobjective: -889.2218856665015 Temperature: 0.5668936671780183 ESS: 3.9999984061446634 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 1.0 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 93%|███████████████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 1.15 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1192 Avgℓobjective: -918.2436875638886 Temperature: 0.5855234138368042 ESS: 3.9999993999324484 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.1650568872453366 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:00 ( 1.21 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1199 Avgℓobjective: -922.2384485679237 Temperature: 0.5883484625830675 ESS: 3.9999982426125498 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.11059342999140956 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -864.827, variance: 2.741 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -922.238, variance: 0.106 Total number of jittering steps: 226. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.455, 0.104, 0.432, 0.769, 1.0]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ -0.009 │ 0.042 │ 0.003 │ -0.089 │ -0.033 │ -0.007 │ 0.017 │ 0.078 │ 146.136 │ 140.362 │ 1.061 │ │ σ │ 1.0 │ 0.03 │ 0.003 │ 0.947 │ 0.975 │ 0.999 │ 1.021 │ 1.06 │ 97.542 │ 74.518 │ 1.098 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Computing... 0%| | ETA: 0:11:42 ( 0.88 s/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1000 Avgℓobjective: -24126.353531121742 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: NaN generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 17%|████▎ | ETA: 0:00:14 (20.62 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 18 logobjective: -1938.360191581713 Temperature: 0.5082362469666039 accepted: true acceptancerate: 4.596426213087539e-213 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 2 ℓH: -1939.0947968963806                         Computing... 19%|████▊ | ETA: 0:00:13 (20.69 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1018 Avgℓobjective: -2635.932139826469 Temperature: 0.5087164850066754 ESS: 3.987538027039305 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.5851083196746224 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 20%|█████▏ | ETA: 0:00:14 (22.69 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1020 Avgℓobjective: -1905.7994725039534 Temperature: 0.5096755545974264 ESS: 3.9999990437551722 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.7284728088888037 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 21%|█████▎ | ETA: 0:00:16 (25.72 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1020 Avgℓobjective: -2107.0992544419046 Temperature: 0.5096755545974264 ESS: 3.4933412339718095 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.578931137961676 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 23%|█████▊ | ETA: 0:00:17 (26.91 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 24 logobjective: -1910.1457519980165 Temperature: 0.511110649623226 accepted: true acceptancerate: 2.711454532266645e-7 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 2 ℓH: -1910.3010906324394                         Computing... 24%|█████▉ | ETA: 0:00:17 (27.08 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1023 Avgℓobjective: -1912.0310706854261 Temperature: 0.511110649623226 ESS: 3.9999997306278465 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8126960494758768 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 24%|██████▏ | ETA: 0:00:16 (26.86 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1024 Avgℓobjective: -1912.9693650114073 Temperature: 0.5115880806294534 ESS: 3.9999986809856307 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9481232040122038 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 25%|██████▎ | ETA: 0:00:16 (26.92 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 26 logobjective: -1913.9554365312474 Temperature: 0.5120650453944637 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.5103738776431722e-14 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1914.5680833803435                         Computing... 26%|██████▌ | ETA: 0:00:16 (26.83 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 26 logobjective: -2453.030994775604 Temperature: 0.5120650453944637 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.0 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -2453.890921238501                         Computing... 27%|██████▊ | ETA: 0:00:16 (26.85 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 27 logobjective: -1914.5127797051239 Temperature: 0.5125415443735707 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.33333756680622484 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -1914.6651866134423                         Computing... 28%|███████ | ETA: 0:00:15 (26.82 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1027 Avgℓobjective: -2055.2398238904607 Temperature: 0.5130175780216433 ESS: 3.861500997601111 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9634024483971786 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 30%|███████▌ | ETA: 0:00:14 (25.26 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1030 Avgℓobjective: -1923.8247823135416 Temperature: 0.5144428915216857 ESS: 3.99999891493882 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.06183376656135378 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 34%|████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:12 (22.93 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 34 logobjective: -1928.2292490759958 Temperature: 0.5158640333751106 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.0056926444042619e-40 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1930.2151437466568                         Computing... 38%|█████████▋ | ETA: 0:00:10 (20.51 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1038 Avgℓobjective: -1938.0933814233936 Temperature: 0.5182233659509425 ESS: 3.9999972582505032 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.7177605721346887 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 45%|███████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:08 (17.74 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1045 Avgℓobjective: -1949.5514911229275 Temperature: 0.5215071279810213 ESS: 3.999999909210788 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.5315025922711615 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 52%|████████████▉ | ETA: 0:00:06 (15.84 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1051 Avgℓobjective: -1961.2138186811444 Temperature: 0.5243039611636671 ESS: 3.999998812071304 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8715094216369738 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 58%|██████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:05 (14.29 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1057 Avgℓobjective: -1970.9271089864153 Temperature: 0.5270844466088458 ESS: 3.999998969869351 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.2927864626587806 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 64%|████████████████▏ | ETA: 0:00:04 (13.07 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 65 logobjective: -1982.8335869809891 Temperature: 0.5303078120190942 accepted: true acceptancerate: 4.970219751089795e-19 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1983.040372993556                         Computing... 71%|█████████████████▋ | ETA: 0:00:03 (12.10 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 71 logobjective: -1992.585856556252 Temperature: 0.5330532044246938 accepted: true acceptancerate: 2.97675122781699e-10 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 2 ℓH: -1992.8421060348364                         Computing... 77%|███████████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:02 (11.30 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1076 Avgℓobjective: -2003.700438047634 Temperature: 0.5357825497687208 ESS: 3.9999979845195868 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8430691053500543 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 85%|█████████████████████▏ | ETA: 0:00:01 (10.40 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 85 logobjective: -2014.824529045426 Temperature: 0.5393968768366818 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.46500664334246156 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -2014.90303953193                         Computing... 92%|███████████████████████▏ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 9.71 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 93 logobjective: -2028.5113806992636 Temperature: 0.5429830632990977 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.27942820474735963 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -2029.6536398800213                         Computing... 98%|████████████████████████▌| ETA: 0:00:00 ( 9.27 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1098 Avgℓobjective: -2039.882922952046 Temperature: 0.5456543677392305 ESS: 3.99999904833538 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.561253146124514 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:07 ( 9.15 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1099 Avgℓobjective: -2041.451788801196 Temperature: 0.5460980646457352 ESS: 3.9999998502975127 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8075792018177325 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -5178.822, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2039.855. NUTS sampler had 30 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 2.1 (3) number of steps and depth of 0.956 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 28, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 2, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -8730.038, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2039.972. NUTS sampler had 29 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 2.133 (6) number of steps and depth of 1.0 (2). Divergences in: Warmup: 28, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 1, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -6330.262, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2040.178. NUTS sampler had 36 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 2.056 (7) number of steps and depth of 0.978 (2). Divergences in: Warmup: 31, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 5, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -6549.108, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2039.921. NUTS sampler had 36 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.711 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.867 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 33, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 3, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -5052.002, variance: 2.231030527e6 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -2041.752, variance: 0.618 Total number of jittering steps: 137. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.266, 0.248, 0.557, 0.762, 0.975]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 6.55]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.229, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 2: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -7488.147, variance: 402225.899 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -2042.68, variance: 2.452 Total number of jittering steps: 151. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.275, 0.165, 0.55, 0.744, 0.967]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 5.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.42, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 3: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -5683.811, variance: 2.837471615e6 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -2042.067, variance: 0.741 Total number of jittering steps: 179. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.302, 0.213, 0.562, 0.785, 0.958]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 6.775]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.446, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 4: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -6504.139, variance: 114464.623 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -2041.452, variance: 0.054 Total number of jittering steps: 219. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.524, 0.054, 0.398, 0.798, 0.973]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.253, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.224 │ 0.397 │ 0.04 │ -0.491 │ -0.031 │ 0.215 │ 0.484 │ 1.012 │ 113.829 │ 147.77 │ 1.051 │ │ σ │ 9.706 │ 2.796 │ 0.234 │ 3.41 │ 9.735 │ 9.986 │ 10.212 │ 10.627 │ 114.527 │ 43.327 │ 1.027 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Computing... 0%| | ETA: 0:06:14 ( 0.47 s/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1100 Avgℓobjective: -1146.324842775106 Temperature: 0.5465413282544795 ESS: 3.9999987773896986 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.18933763336825563 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 14%|███▍ | ETA: 0:00:07 ( 9.61 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1113 Avgℓobjective: -864.6073245445675 Temperature: 0.5522645170388976 ESS: 3.999998850265209 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.35006092590886473 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 29%|███████▏ | ETA: 0:00:03 ( 4.97 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 129 logobjective: -874.0219232843597 Temperature: 0.5587784970994184 accepted: true acceptancerate: 4.3171605992910476e-18 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -874.8475414452242                         Computing... 45%|███████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:02 ( 3.43 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1145 Avgℓobjective: -885.5075041379176 Temperature: 0.566046515629149 ESS: 3.999996861040643 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.6576647710299983 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 62%|███████████████▍ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 2.73 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1161 Avgℓobjective: -896.319253819926 Temperature: 0.572777602395081 ESS: 3.9999989579383812 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.3573319426385967 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 78%|███████████████████▍ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 2.33 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 178 logobjective: -906.2379649768147 Temperature: 0.5794042827426242 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.00022688501948519438 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -914.0362248871326                         Computing... 94%|███████████████████████▍ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 2.09 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1193 Avgℓobjective: -918.6275988930093 Temperature: 0.5859281761279792 ESS: 3.9999987093799207 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.2714104443843993 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:01 ( 2.02 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1199 Avgℓobjective: -920.6526910343398 Temperature: 0.5883484625830675 ESS: 3.999999455881023 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.34237208087756976 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -862.338, Avg. final ℓposterior: -922.399. NUTS sampler had 34 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.767 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.978 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 27, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 7, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -863.163, Avg. final ℓposterior: -923.97. NUTS sampler had 36 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.711 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.989 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 31, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 5, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -869.256, Avg. final ℓposterior: -919.903. NUTS sampler had 29 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.567 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.967 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 23, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 6, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -861.543, Avg. final ℓposterior: -920.379. NUTS sampler had 49 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.844 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.944 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 42, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 7, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -862.919, variance: 2.474 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -920.467, variance: 0.849 Total number of jittering steps: 106. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.441, 0.14, 0.45, 0.672, 0.962]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 2: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -862.703, variance: 0.352 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -921.865, variance: 3.238 Total number of jittering steps: 97. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.687, -0.008, 0.269, 0.569, 0.931]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 3: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -863.255, variance: 5.663 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -920.483, variance: 0.489 Total number of jittering steps: 120. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.665, 0.039, 0.352, 0.735, 0.925]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 4: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -861.968, variance: 0.131 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -920.653, variance: 0.638 Total number of jittering steps: 207. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.61, -0.045, 0.42, 0.781, 0.974]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ -0.033 │ 0.041 │ 0.003 │ -0.116 │ -0.061 │ -0.032 │ -0.003 │ 0.043 │ 222.887 │ 231.526 │ 1.011 │ │ σ │ 1.002 │ 0.031 │ 0.002 │ 0.943 │ 0.979 │ 1.0 │ 1.024 │ 1.059 │ 229.834 │ 289.027 │ 1.014 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -382.679, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2253.102. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 15.092 (23) number of steps and depth of 3.308 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -383.528, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2253.507. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 15.572 (23) number of steps and depth of 3.36 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -383.993, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2253.653. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 14.756 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.262 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -384.153, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2253.756. NUTS sampler had 1 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 15.524 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.352 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 1, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.181 │ 0.536 │ 0.032 │ -0.927 │ -0.175 │ 0.202 │ 0.531 │ 1.185 │ 299.283 │ 249.612 │ 1.024 │ │ σ │ 10.308 │ 0.507 │ 0.052 │ 9.116 │ 10.038 │ 10.332 │ 10.618 │ 11.208 │ 111.471 │ 83.876 │ 1.025 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 400. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 400 Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2258.211, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.639. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 16.13 (7) number of steps and depth of 3.445 (2). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2257.081, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3737.115. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 18.125 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.592 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2256.878, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3736.134. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 15.385 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.4 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2256.693, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.522. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 14.62 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.342 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.181 │ 0.358 │ 0.024 │ -0.515 │ -0.076 │ 0.189 │ 0.424 │ 0.905 │ 217.664 │ 335.817 │ 1.026 │ │ σ │ 10.094 │ 0.281 │ 0.043 │ 9.594 │ 9.89 │ 10.083 │ 10.281 │ 10.704 │ 43.749 │ 602.8 │ 1.064 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -386.829, variance: 3.98 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -2256.246, variance: 0.57 Total number of jittering steps: 545. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.622, 0.06, 0.358, 0.669, 0.92]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.869, 3.988, 3.995, 3.998, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.191 │ 0.541 │ 0.035 │ -0.966 │ -0.139 │ 0.223 │ 0.563 │ 1.185 │ 253.726 │ 302.163 │ 1.028 │ │ σ │ 10.323 │ 0.519 │ 0.05 │ 9.046 │ 10.058 │ 10.352 │ 10.629 │ 11.261 │ 124.543 │ 90.461 │ 1.035 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1934.497, variance: 457.537 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1569.273, variance: 1.06 Total number of jittering steps: 562. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.783, 0.009, 0.368, 0.69, 0.934]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.939, 3.994, 3.998, 3.999, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.086 │ 0.068 │ 0.003 │ -0.001 │ 0.057 │ 0.083 │ 0.107 │ 0.162 │ 48.63 │ 381.837 │ 1.062 │ │ σ │ 1.082 │ 0.728 │ 0.04 │ 0.949 │ 0.986 │ 1.003 │ 1.021 │ 1.06 │ 775.443 │ 642.105 │ 1.015 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel SMC2Kernel Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 97.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -158.388, variance: 4.156 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -972.338, variance: 1.3 Total number of jittering steps: 89. Rejuvenations on average every 33.333 step, every 20.833 steps in first half, every 83.333 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.336, -0.117, 0.011, 0.168, 0.562]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.35, 4.0, 6.0, 9.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [2.977, 3.426, 3.682, 3.877, 3.988] for 4 chains. ┌────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ1 │ -0.323 │ 0.836 │ 0.236 │ -2.22 │ -0.635 │ -0.273 │ 0.262 │ 0.912 │ 10.778 │ 46.267 │ 1.291 │ │ μ2 │ 1.953 │ 0.091 │ 0.014 │ 1.765 │ 1.886 │ 1.945 │ 2.027 │ 2.102 │ 38.335 │ 30.142 │ 1.261 │ │ σ1 │ 2.004 │ 0.497 │ 0.076 │ 1.414 │ 1.79 │ 1.933 │ 2.151 │ 3.089 │ 34.574 │ 33.927 │ 1.082 │ │ σ2 │ 0.985 │ 0.061 │ 0.01 │ 0.839 │ 0.96 │ 0.981 │ 1.028 │ 1.106 │ 31.678 │ 45.277 │ 1.17 │ │ p1 │ 0.136 │ 0.049 │ 0.018 │ 0.057 │ 0.095 │ 0.132 │ 0.177 │ 0.24 │ 8.033 │ 51.341 │ 1.454 │ │ p2 │ 0.864 │ 0.049 │ 0.018 │ 0.76 │ 0.823 │ 0.868 │ 0.905 │ 0.943 │ 8.033 │ 20.781 │ 1.454 │ └────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel SMC2Kernel Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 98.6%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -975.086, variance: 1.418 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1587.685, variance: 1.246 Total number of jittering steps: 60. Rejuvenations on average every 71.429 step, every 50.0 steps in first half, every 125.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [0.031, 0.36, 0.454, 0.494, 0.757]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [3.6, 8.5, 10.0, 10.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.077, 3.353, 3.653, 3.805, 3.976] for 4 chains. ┌────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ1 │ -0.075 │ 0.117 │ 0.028 │ -0.286 │ -0.127 │ -0.073 │ -0.041 │ 0.21 │ 19.997 │ 21.871 │ 1.166 │ │ μ2 │ 0.804 │ 0.537 │ 0.22 │ -0.221 │ 0.289 │ 0.776 │ 1.25 │ 1.889 │ 5.986 │ 8.815 │ 1.809 │ │ σ1 │ 0.984 │ 0.145 │ 0.021 │ 0.834 │ 0.91 │ 0.96 │ 1.043 │ 1.079 │ 9.369 │ 38.388 │ 1.376 │ │ σ2 │ 0.94 │ 0.087 │ 0.022 │ 0.817 │ 0.851 │ 0.925 │ 0.994 │ 1.096 │ 14.796 │ NaN │ 1.294 │ │ p1 │ 0.782 │ 0.125 │ 0.027 │ 0.55 │ 0.738 │ 0.802 │ 0.861 │ 0.914 │ 9.67 │ NaN │ 1.333 │ │ p2 │ 0.218 │ 0.125 │ 0.027 │ 0.086 │ 0.139 │ 0.198 │ 0.262 │ 0.45 │ 9.67 │ 10.794 │ 1.333 │ └────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -111.004, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2253.041. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 15.252 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.344 (5). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -110.669, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2253.044. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 15.624 (19) number of steps and depth of 3.356 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -111.115, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2253.771. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 15.62 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.336 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -110.614, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2253.026. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.624 (7) number of steps and depth of 3.468 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.225 │ 0.541 │ 0.032 │ -0.841 │ -0.115 │ 0.219 │ 0.553 │ 1.329 │ 289.952 │ 381.955 │ 1.03 │ │ σ │ 10.315 │ 0.534 │ 0.053 │ 9.025 │ 10.034 │ 10.331 │ 10.658 │ 11.284 │ 120.301 │ 80.088 │ 1.039 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 400. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 400 Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -652.4, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.876. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 15.35 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.37 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -652.592, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.681. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.895 (19) number of steps and depth of 3.52 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -652.279, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3737.594. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.1 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.535 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -652.692, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3737.473. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.52 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.475 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.143 │ 0.348 │ 0.024 │ -0.552 │ -0.082 │ 0.146 │ 0.362 │ 0.873 │ 211.032 │ 238.41 │ 1.01 │ │ σ │ 10.091 │ 0.284 │ 0.039 │ 9.571 │ 9.899 │ 10.073 │ 10.269 │ 10.693 │ 55.002 │ 534.63 │ 1.057 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -111.414, variance: 0.028 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -2255.928, variance: 0.204 Total number of jittering steps: 533. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.601, -0.018, 0.293, 0.659, 0.94]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.896, 3.988, 3.995, 3.998, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.204 │ 0.559 │ 0.04 │ -0.88 │ -0.169 │ 0.186 │ 0.559 │ 1.324 │ 184.205 │ 426.84 │ 1.023 │ │ σ │ 10.288 │ 0.529 │ 0.05 │ 9.143 │ 9.997 │ 10.307 │ 10.607 │ 11.263 │ 123.353 │ 93.784 │ 1.029 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -553.326, variance: 128.556 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1560.208, variance: 0.473 Total number of jittering steps: 651. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.594, -0.001, 0.389, 0.701, 0.945]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 4.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.956, 3.996, 3.998, 3.999, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.021 │ 0.066 │ 0.002 │ -0.052 │ -0.002 │ 0.023 │ 0.046 │ 0.09 │ 167.631 │ 456.364 │ 1.038 │ │ σ │ 1.076 │ 0.681 │ 0.039 │ 0.956 │ 0.989 │ 1.008 │ 1.031 │ 1.099 │ 14.676 │ 106.854 │ 1.187 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel SMC2Kernel Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 96.8%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -45.835, variance: 0.188 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -971.145, variance: 1.644 Total number of jittering steps: 93. Rejuvenations on average every 31.25 step, every 19.231 steps in first half, every 83.333 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.217, -0.093, 0.029, 0.249, 0.572]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.375, 3.75, 5.5, 8.5, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [2.984, 3.458, 3.66, 3.824, 3.992] for 4 chains. ┌────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ1 │ -0.696 │ 0.882 │ 0.215 │ -2.821 │ -1.092 │ -0.778 │ -0.028 │ 0.841 │ 23.115 │ 12.23 │ 1.312 │ │ μ2 │ 1.924 │ 0.065 │ 0.012 │ 1.816 │ 1.874 │ 1.908 │ 1.962 │ 2.083 │ 30.941 │ 52.577 │ 1.084 │ │ σ1 │ 1.889 │ 0.645 │ 0.181 │ 1.054 │ 1.485 │ 1.768 │ 2.044 │ 3.044 │ 7.806 │ 11.605 │ 1.452 │ │ σ2 │ 0.992 │ 0.069 │ 0.017 │ 0.874 │ 0.939 │ 0.996 │ 1.02 │ 1.15 │ 13.686 │ NaN │ 1.231 │ │ p1 │ 0.109 │ 0.036 │ 0.009 │ 0.053 │ 0.085 │ 0.111 │ 0.121 │ 0.189 │ 16.339 │ 18.177 │ 1.223 │ │ p2 │ 0.891 │ 0.036 │ 0.009 │ 0.811 │ 0.879 │ 0.889 │ 0.915 │ 0.947 │ 16.339 │ 56.762 │ 1.223 │ └────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel SMC2Kernel Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 98.2%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -281.856, variance: 0.212 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1560.447, variance: 2.922 Total number of jittering steps: 70. Rejuvenations on average every 55.556 step, every 35.714 steps in first half, every 125.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.343, -0.108, 0.617, 0.929, 0.946]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.4, 6.0, 10.0, 10.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.047, 3.387, 3.676, 3.874, 3.991] for 4 chains. ┌────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ1 │ -0.481 │ 0.142 │ 0.059 │ -0.679 │ -0.633 │ -0.445 │ -0.351 │ -0.225 │ 6.428 │ 17.865 │ 1.776 │ │ μ2 │ 0.796 │ 0.218 │ 0.083 │ 0.478 │ 0.609 │ 0.804 │ 0.967 │ 1.164 │ 7.283 │ 22.297 │ 1.524 │ │ σ1 │ 0.777 │ 0.075 │ 0.02 │ 0.687 │ 0.714 │ 0.78 │ 0.835 │ 0.905 │ 10.08 │ 19.35 │ 1.389 │ │ σ2 │ 0.757 │ 0.077 │ 0.028 │ 0.625 │ 0.72 │ 0.741 │ 0.795 │ 0.921 │ 6.228 │ 9.312 │ 1.777 │ │ p1 │ 0.599 │ 0.122 │ 0.049 │ 0.431 │ 0.474 │ 0.645 │ 0.716 │ 0.788 │ 6.971 │ 17.614 │ 1.645 │ │ p2 │ 0.401 │ 0.122 │ 0.049 │ 0.212 │ 0.284 │ 0.355 │ 0.526 │ 0.569 │ 6.971 │ 10.202 │ 1.645 │ └────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -191.383, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1126.935. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.812 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.52 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -191.484, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1126.896. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 16.876 (7) number of steps and depth of 3.486 (2). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -191.351, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1127.348. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 16.784 (7) number of steps and depth of 3.446 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -194.109, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1126.555. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.224 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.462 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.209 │ 0.721 │ 0.05 │ -1.161 │ -0.281 │ 0.207 │ 0.698 │ 1.591 │ 212.469 │ 554.496 │ 1.013 │ │ σ │ 10.351 │ 0.646 │ 0.055 │ 8.955 │ 9.98 │ 10.359 │ 10.747 │ 11.585 │ 154.01 │ 84.93 │ 1.033 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 400. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 400 Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1128.317, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1868.94. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 16.14 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.455 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1129.522, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1873.406. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 14.2 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.305 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1128.321, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1868.269. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 15.51 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.402 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1128.285, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1868.842. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 15.695 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.402 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.152 │ 0.491 │ 0.027 │ -0.776 │ -0.177 │ 0.169 │ 0.462 │ 1.108 │ 353.851 │ 416.429 │ 1.015 │ │ σ │ 10.104 │ 0.373 │ 0.029 │ 9.4 │ 9.853 │ 10.08 │ 10.347 │ 10.863 │ 190.712 │ 772.07 │ 1.027 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -193.287, variance: 0.111 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1128.993, variance: 0.646 Total number of jittering steps: 541. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.558, 0.03, 0.371, 0.664, 0.939]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.934, 3.994, 3.998, 3.999, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.154 │ 0.747 │ 0.043 │ -1.452 │ -0.309 │ 0.197 │ 0.668 │ 1.54 │ 307.26 │ 407.431 │ 1.026 │ │ σ │ 10.36 │ 0.67 │ 0.051 │ 8.771 │ 10.005 │ 10.378 │ 10.76 │ 11.636 │ 199.001 │ 98.323 │ 1.037 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -802.039, variance: 35301.894 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -774.329, variance: 2.253 Total number of jittering steps: 558. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.628, -0.016, 0.341, 0.664, 0.908]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.97, 3.997, 3.999, 3.999, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.023 │ 0.057 │ 0.003 │ -0.074 │ -0.013 │ 0.021 │ 0.057 │ 0.125 │ 252.679 │ 627.963 │ 1.026 │ │ σ │ 1.0 │ 0.291 │ 0.009 │ 0.909 │ 0.96 │ 0.984 │ 1.008 │ 1.069 │ 596.68 │ 399.207 │ 1.018 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel SMC2Kernel Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 98.6%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -82.632, variance: 21.676 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -486.137, variance: 1.118 Total number of jittering steps: 49. Rejuvenations on average every 71.429 step, every 41.667 steps in first half, every 250.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.283, -0.11, 0.148, 0.181, 0.228]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [5.0, 5.5, 6.0, 8.5, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.074, 3.5, 3.706, 3.868, 3.994] for 4 chains. ┌────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ1 │ -0.95 │ 1.292 │ 0.346 │ -3.774 │ -1.293 │ -0.809 │ -0.049 │ 0.468 │ 12.873 │ 21.982 │ 1.448 │ │ μ2 │ 1.926 │ 0.1 │ 0.029 │ 1.622 │ 1.896 │ 1.945 │ 1.98 │ 2.038 │ 14.934 │ 18.859 │ 1.437 │ │ σ1 │ 2.023 │ 0.987 │ 0.191 │ 0.994 │ 1.511 │ 1.759 │ 2.103 │ 5.885 │ 30.544 │ 38.903 │ 1.434 │ │ σ2 │ 0.996 │ 0.075 │ 0.011 │ 0.867 │ 0.952 │ 0.982 │ 1.01 │ 1.144 │ 39.974 │ 36.13 │ 1.391 │ │ p1 │ 0.103 │ 0.045 │ 0.015 │ 0.016 │ 0.063 │ 0.111 │ 0.128 │ 0.188 │ 10.048 │ 38.32 │ 1.356 │ │ p2 │ 0.897 │ 0.045 │ 0.015 │ 0.812 │ 0.872 │ 0.889 │ 0.937 │ 0.984 │ 10.048 │ 14.412 │ 1.356 │ └────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel SMC2Kernel Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 98.4%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -486.785, variance: 1.106 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -786.107, variance: 3.216 Total number of jittering steps: 80. Rejuvenations on average every 62.5 step, every 35.714 steps in first half, every 250.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [0.108, 0.18, 0.743, 0.892, 0.995]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [10.0, 10.0, 10.0, 10.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.037, 3.42, 3.7, 3.936, 3.995] for 4 chains. ┌────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ1 │ -0.147 │ 0.192 │ 0.045 │ -0.69 │ -0.186 │ -0.127 │ -0.081 │ 0.343 │ 11.985 │ 14.395 │ 1.239 │ │ μ2 │ 1.303 │ 0.524 │ 0.22 │ 0.439 │ 0.891 │ 1.61 │ 1.749 │ 1.98 │ 7.133 │ NaN │ 1.67 │ │ σ1 │ 1.043 │ 0.306 │ 0.055 │ 0.755 │ 0.917 │ 0.943 │ 1.009 │ 2.103 │ 32.222 │ 17.017 │ 1.563 │ │ σ2 │ 1.155 │ 0.189 │ 0.041 │ 0.781 │ 0.982 │ 1.248 │ 1.268 │ 1.442 │ 19.344 │ 10.675 │ 1.179 │ │ p1 │ 0.715 │ 0.27 │ 0.086 │ 0.111 │ 0.692 │ 0.799 │ 0.922 │ 0.969 │ 7.477 │ NaN │ 1.493 │ │ p2 │ 0.285 │ 0.27 │ 0.086 │ 0.031 │ 0.078 │ 0.201 │ 0.308 │ 0.889 │ 7.477 │ 9.362 │ 1.493 │ └────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -191.383, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1563.149. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 16.924 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.452 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -192.231, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1561.608. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 13.96 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.26 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -196.016, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1562.279. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 15.8 (23) number of steps and depth of 3.38 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -191.59, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1561.289. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 14.896 (23) number of steps and depth of 3.316 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.229 │ 0.697 │ 0.033 │ -1.152 │ -0.198 │ 0.247 │ 0.65 │ 1.6 │ 444.527 │ 496.32 │ 1.044 │ │ σ │ 10.337 │ 0.633 │ 0.055 │ 8.859 │ 10.0 │ 10.338 │ 10.713 │ 11.568 │ 156.273 │ 86.143 │ 1.054 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 400. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 400 Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1564.529, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3105.465. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 14.88 (7) number of steps and depth of 3.392 (2). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1564.307, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3106.458. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 14.515 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.332 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1564.512, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3107.165. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 15.745 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.42 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1564.812, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3105.582. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 14.33 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.332 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.146 │ 0.427 │ 0.026 │ -0.762 │ -0.116 │ 0.148 │ 0.432 │ 0.97 │ 283.49 │ 316.048 │ 1.017 │ │ σ │ 10.086 │ 0.296 │ 0.026 │ 9.557 │ 9.889 │ 10.074 │ 10.281 │ 10.709 │ 145.866 │ 495.055 │ 1.038 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -193.907, variance: 0.947 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1564.105, variance: 0.929 Total number of jittering steps: 529. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.624, -0.005, 0.317, 0.613, 0.929]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.933, 3.994, 3.997, 3.999, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.175 │ 0.685 │ 0.038 │ -1.339 │ -0.246 │ 0.207 │ 0.629 │ 1.398 │ 366.521 │ 301.923 │ 1.031 │ │ σ │ 10.319 │ 0.634 │ 0.049 │ 8.977 │ 9.974 │ 10.34 │ 10.689 │ 11.57 │ 176.398 │ 88.909 │ 1.047 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1274.41, variance: 8167.121 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1361.256, variance: 0.883 Total number of jittering steps: 629. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.692, 0.042, 0.413, 0.73, 0.96]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.948, 3.996, 3.998, 3.999, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ -0.036 │ 0.05 │ 0.002 │ -0.121 │ -0.063 │ -0.035 │ -0.008 │ 0.041 │ 199.72 │ 640.749 │ 1.04 │ │ σ │ 1.045 │ 0.364 │ 0.012 │ 0.966 │ 1.003 │ 1.023 │ 1.043 │ 1.094 │ 214.22 │ 371.196 │ 1.026 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel SMC2Kernel Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 98.2%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -82.927, variance: 14.317 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -673.735, variance: 5.958 Total number of jittering steps: 55. Rejuvenations on average every 55.556 step, every 35.714 steps in first half, every 125.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.078, 0.012, 0.103, 0.235, 0.835]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [2.0, 3.0, 5.0, 10.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.031, 3.37, 3.716, 3.888, 3.996] for 4 chains. ┌────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ1 │ -1.637 │ 1.496 │ 0.464 │ -6.448 │ -2.345 │ -1.586 │ -0.46 │ 0.623 │ 9.86 │ 25.978 │ 1.358 │ │ μ2 │ 1.913 │ 0.109 │ 0.03 │ 1.644 │ 1.829 │ 1.929 │ 2.001 │ 2.076 │ 12.256 │ 42.188 │ 1.32 │ │ σ1 │ 2.069 │ 1.159 │ 0.244 │ 0.972 │ 1.417 │ 1.718 │ 2.101 │ 5.849 │ 25.203 │ 33.702 │ 1.142 │ │ σ2 │ 1.019 │ 0.079 │ 0.013 │ 0.916 │ 0.968 │ 1.013 │ 1.044 │ 1.258 │ 29.94 │ 22.405 │ 1.137 │ │ p1 │ 0.084 │ 0.039 │ 0.012 │ 0.013 │ 0.059 │ 0.087 │ 0.116 │ 0.156 │ 12.647 │ 17.486 │ 1.355 │ │ p2 │ 0.916 │ 0.039 │ 0.012 │ 0.844 │ 0.884 │ 0.913 │ 0.941 │ 0.987 │ 12.647 │ 22.574 │ 1.355 │ └────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel SMC2Kernel Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 98.6%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -675.926, variance: 6.08 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1342.585, variance: 3.101 Total number of jittering steps: 59. Rejuvenations on average every 71.429 step, every 35.714 steps in first half, every Inf steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [0.265, 0.477, 0.8, 0.898, 0.997]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [2.05, 9.0, 10.0, 10.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.081, 3.427, 3.686, 3.821, 3.985] for 4 chains. ┌────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ1 │ -0.138 │ 0.312 │ 0.064 │ -0.547 │ -0.144 │ -0.058 │ -0.042 │ 0.05 │ 5.817 │ NaN │ 1.855 │ │ μ2 │ 1.571 │ 0.169 │ 0.049 │ 1.457 │ 1.471 │ 1.485 │ 1.534 │ 2.066 │ 5.611 │ 4.208 │ 1.926 │ │ σ1 │ 1.023 │ 0.215 │ 0.037 │ 0.842 │ 0.954 │ 0.96 │ 0.966 │ 1.912 │ 12.161 │ 10.779 │ 1.839 │ │ σ2 │ 1.243 │ 0.129 │ 0.05 │ 0.995 │ 1.264 │ 1.296 │ 1.318 │ 1.37 │ 6.035 │ NaN │ 1.789 │ │ p1 │ 0.854 │ 0.261 │ 0.058 │ 0.092 │ 0.944 │ 0.957 │ 0.971 │ 0.977 │ 5.744 │ NaN │ 1.882 │ │ p2 │ 0.146 │ 0.261 │ 0.058 │ 0.023 │ 0.029 │ 0.043 │ 0.056 │ 0.908 │ 5.744 │ 4.208 │ 1.882 │ └────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ NaN │ 8.398 │ NaN │ └───┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ ┌───┬──────┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ NaN │ 8.398 │ NaN │ └───┴──────┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ σ │ 10.062 │ 0.137 │ 0.034 │ 9.757 │ 9.994 │ 10.06 │ 10.144 │ 10.273 │ 13.991 │ 78.072 │ 1.217 │ │ μ │ 0.289 │ 0.001 │ 0.0 │ 0.288 │ 0.289 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.291 │ 13.991 │ 10.965 │ 1.217 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ NaN │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ NaN │ 8.398 │ NaN │ └───┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ ┌───┬──────┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ NaN │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ NaN │ 8.398 │ NaN │ └───┴──────┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ σ │ 10.016 │ 0.136 │ 0.027 │ 9.799 │ 9.935 │ 10.0 │ 10.148 │ 10.28 │ 34.355 │ 43.411 │ 1.193 │ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.001 │ 0.0 │ 0.288 │ 0.289 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.291 │ 34.355 │ 69.072 │ 1.193 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 6.48 │ 8.398 │ 1.778 │ └───┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ ┌───┬──────┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 6.48 │ 8.398 │ 1.778 │ └───┴──────┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ σ │ 9.993 │ 0.142 │ 0.038 │ 9.776 │ 9.855 │ 10.004 │ 10.105 │ 10.264 │ 13.357 │ 29.264 │ 1.25 │ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.001 │ 0.0 │ 0.288 │ 0.289 │ 0.29 │ 0.291 │ 0.291 │ 13.418 │ 34.782 │ 1.25 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 6.069 │ 8.398 │ 1.931 │ └───┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ ┌───┬──────┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 6.069 │ 8.398 │ 1.931 │ └───┴──────┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ σ │ 9.987 │ 0.367 │ 0.145 │ 9.416 │ 9.737 │ 9.964 │ 10.245 │ 10.514 │ 6.732 │ 5.841 │ 1.737 │ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.002 │ 0.001 │ 0.287 │ 0.289 │ 0.29 │ 0.291 │ 0.293 │ 7.252 │ 43.381 │ 1.638 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ NaN │ 8.398 │ NaN │ └───┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ ┌───┬──────┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ NaN │ 8.398 │ NaN │ └───┴──────┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ σ │ 10.015 │ 0.226 │ 0.031 │ 9.64 │ 9.815 │ 10.028 │ 10.193 │ 10.391 │ 53.704 │ 53.689 │ 1.047 │ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.001 │ 0.0 │ 0.288 │ 0.289 │ 0.29 │ 0.291 │ 0.292 │ 53.704 │ 53.689 │ 1.047 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ NaN │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ NaN │ 8.398 │ NaN │ └───┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ ┌───┬──────┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ NaN │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ NaN │ 8.398 │ NaN │ └───┴──────┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ σ │ 10.033 │ 0.229 │ 0.053 │ 9.65 │ 9.821 │ 10.062 │ 10.208 │ 10.409 │ 22.732 │ 19.942 │ 1.157 │ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.001 │ 0.0 │ 0.288 │ 0.289 │ 0.289 │ 0.291 │ 0.292 │ 22.732 │ 59.186 │ 1.157 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 6.587 │ 71.244 │ 1.746 │ └───┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ ┌───┬──────┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 6.587 │ 71.244 │ 1.746 │ └───┴──────┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ σ │ 9.962 │ 0.222 │ 0.026 │ 9.609 │ 9.832 │ 9.973 │ 10.086 │ 10.392 │ 78.197 │ 16.919 │ 1.17 │ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.001 │ 0.0 │ 0.288 │ 0.289 │ 0.29 │ 0.291 │ 0.292 │ 76.405 │ 45.758 │ 1.172 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 6.401 │ 8.398 │ 1.806 │ └───┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ ┌───┬──────┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 6.401 │ 8.398 │ 1.806 │ └───┴──────┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ σ │ 10.008 │ 0.215 │ 0.043 │ 9.677 │ 9.845 │ 9.993 │ 10.193 │ 10.379 │ 27.95 │ 20.393 │ 1.114 │ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.001 │ 0.0 │ 0.288 │ 0.289 │ 0.29 │ 0.291 │ 0.292 │ 27.764 │ 79.222 │ 1.114 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 10000. Sampling iterations set to 900 Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 10. Sampling iterations set to 10 Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Test Summary: | Pass Total Time All tests | 214 214 16m17.9s Testing Baytes tests passed Testing completed after 1019.28s PkgEval succeeded after 1141.48s