Package evaluation to test Baytes on Julia 1.14.0-DEV.1886 (984ad247db*) started at 2026-03-12T22:05:11.224 ################################################################################ # Set-up # Installing PkgEval dependencies (TestEnv)... Activating project at `~/.julia/environments/v1.14` Set-up completed after 12.87s ################################################################################ # Installation # Installing Baytes... Resolving package versions... Updating `~/.julia/environments/v1.14/Project.toml` [72ddfcfc] + Baytes v0.3.16 Updating `~/.julia/environments/v1.14/Manifest.toml` [621f4979] + AbstractFFTs v1.5.0 [7d9f7c33] + Accessors v0.1.43 [79e6a3ab] + Adapt v4.5.0 [66dad0bd] + AliasTables v1.1.3 [dce04be8] + ArgCheck v2.5.0 [72ddfcfc] + Baytes v0.3.16 [e5a8efeb] + BaytesCore v0.2.0 [12a76ff9] + BaytesDiff v0.3.1 [26b78818] + BaytesFilters v0.3.6 [8e6e46a0] + BaytesMCMC v0.3.4 [c78c806d] + BaytesOptim v0.1.9 [c4a8eb41] + BaytesPMCMC v0.3.3 [2428e3a5] + BaytesSMC v0.3.6 ⌅ [76274a88] + Bijectors v0.13.18 [082447d4] + ChainRules v1.73.0 [d360d2e6] + ChainRulesCore v1.26.0 [9e997f8a] + ChangesOfVariables v0.1.10 [38540f10] + CommonSolve v0.2.6 [34da2185] + Compat v4.18.1 [a33af91c] + CompositionsBase v0.1.2 [187b0558] + ConstructionBase v1.6.0 [a8cc5b0e] + Crayons v4.1.1 [9a962f9c] + DataAPI v1.16.0 [864edb3b] + DataStructures v0.19.3 [e2d170a0] + DataValueInterfaces v1.0.0 [31c24e10] + Distributions v0.25.123 [ffbed154] + DocStringExtensions v0.9.5 [fdbdab4c] + ElasticArrays v1.2.12 [5789e2e9] + FileIO v1.18.0 [1a297f60] + FillArrays v1.16.0 ⌅ [d9f16b24] + Functors v0.4.12 [46192b85] + GPUArraysCore v0.2.0 [34004b35] + HypergeometricFunctions v0.3.28 [3587e190] + InverseFunctions v0.1.17 [92d709cd] + IrrationalConstants v0.2.6 [82899510] + IteratorInterfaceExtensions v1.0.0 ⌅ [033835bb] + JLD2 v0.4.55 [692b3bcd] + JLLWrappers v1.7.1 [b964fa9f] + LaTeXStrings v1.4.0 [2ab3a3ac] + LogExpFunctions v0.3.29 [be115224] + MCMCDiagnosticTools v0.3.16 [e80e1ace] + MLJModelInterface v1.12.1 [1914dd2f] + MacroTools v0.5.16 [dbb5928d] + MappedArrays v0.4.3 [e1d29d7a] + Missings v1.2.0 [44c54197] + ModelWrappers v0.5.6 [bac558e1] + OrderedCollections v1.8.1 [90014a1f] + PDMats v0.11.37 [aea7be01] + PrecompileTools v1.3.3 [21216c6a] + Preferences v1.5.2 ⌅ [08abe8d2] + PrettyTables v2.4.0 [92933f4c] + ProgressMeter v1.11.0 [43287f4e] + PtrArrays v1.4.0 [1fd47b50] + QuadGK v2.11.2 [c1ae055f] + RealDot v0.1.0 [189a3867] + Reexport v1.2.2 [ae029012] + Requires v1.3.1 [79098fc4] + Rmath v0.9.0 [f2b01f46] + Roots v2.2.13 [30f210dd] + ScientificTypesBase v3.1.0 [ce78b400] + SimpleUnPack v1.1.0 [a2af1166] + SortingAlgorithms v1.2.2 [dc90abb0] + SparseInverseSubset v0.1.2 [276daf66] + SpecialFunctions v2.7.1 [64bff920] + StatisticalTraits v3.5.0 [10745b16] + Statistics v1.11.1 [82ae8749] + StatsAPI v1.8.0 [2913bbd2] + StatsBase v0.34.10 [4c63d2b9] + StatsFuns v1.5.2 [892a3eda] + StringManipulation v0.4.4 [09ab397b] + StructArrays v0.7.2 [3783bdb8] + TableTraits v1.0.1 [bd369af6] + Tables v1.12.1 [3bb67fe8] + TranscodingStreams v0.11.3 [efe28fd5] + OpenSpecFun_jll v0.5.6+0 [f50d1b31] + Rmath_jll v0.5.1+0 [0dad84c5] + ArgTools v1.1.2 [56f22d72] + Artifacts v1.11.0 [2a0f44e3] + Base64 v1.11.0 [ade2ca70] + Dates v1.11.0 [8ba89e20] + Distributed v1.11.0 [f43a241f] + Downloads v1.7.0 [7b1f6079] + FileWatching v1.11.0 [b77e0a4c] + InteractiveUtils v1.11.0 [ac6e5ff7] + JuliaSyntaxHighlighting v1.13.0 [b27032c2] + LibCURL v1.0.0 [76f85450] + LibGit2 v1.11.0 [8f399da3] + Libdl v1.11.0 [37e2e46d] + LinearAlgebra v1.13.0 [56ddb016] + Logging v1.11.0 [d6f4376e] + Markdown v1.11.0 [a63ad114] + Mmap v1.11.0 [ca575930] + NetworkOptions v1.3.0 [44cfe95a] + Pkg v1.14.0 [de0858da] + Printf v1.11.0 [3fa0cd96] + REPL v1.11.0 [9a3f8284] + Random v1.11.0 [ea8e919c] + SHA v1.0.0 [9e88b42a] + Serialization v1.11.0 [6462fe0b] + Sockets v1.11.0 [2f01184e] + SparseArrays v1.13.0 [f489334b] + StyledStrings v1.13.0 [4607b0f0] + SuiteSparse [fa267f1f] + TOML v1.0.3 [a4e569a6] + Tar v1.10.0 [cf7118a7] + UUIDs v1.11.0 [4ec0a83e] + Unicode v1.11.0 [e66e0078] + CompilerSupportLibraries_jll v1.3.0+1 [deac9b47] + LibCURL_jll v8.18.0+1 [e37daf67] + LibGit2_jll v1.9.2+0 [29816b5a] + LibSSH2_jll v1.11.3+1 [14a3606d] + MozillaCACerts_jll v2025.12.2 [4536629a] + OpenBLAS_jll v0.3.30+0 [05823500] + OpenLibm_jll v0.8.7+0 [458c3c95] + OpenSSL_jll v3.5.5+0 [efcefdf7] + PCRE2_jll v10.47.0+0 [bea87d4a] + SuiteSparse_jll v7.10.1+0 [83775a58] + Zlib_jll v1.3.2+0 [3161d3a3] + Zstd_jll v1.5.7+1 [8e850b90] + libblastrampoline_jll v5.15.0+0 [8e850ede] + nghttp2_jll v1.68.0+1 [3f19e933] + p7zip_jll v17.8.0+0 Info Packages marked with ⌅ have new versions available but compatibility constraints restrict them from upgrading. To see why use `status --outdated -m` Installation completed after 5.77s ################################################################################ # Precompilation # Precompiling PkgEval dependencies... Precompiling package dependencies... Precompiling packages... 12075.2 ms ✓ Distributions 5351.8 ms ✓ Distributions → DistributionsTestExt 5287.8 ms ✓ Distributions → DistributionsChainRulesCoreExt 6959.5 ms ✓ MCMCDiagnosticTools 9774.6 ms ✓ Bijectors 5157.2 ms ✓ Bijectors → BijectorsForwardDiffExt 7546.2 ms ✓ ModelWrappers 6549.1 ms ✓ BaytesDiff 6927.3 ms ✓ BaytesFilters 5684.6 ms ✓ BaytesDiff → BaytesDiffForwardDiffExt 6010.4 ms ✓ BaytesOptim 6951.1 ms ✓ BaytesMCMC 5687.0 ms ✓ BaytesOptim → BaytesOptimOptimExt 6061.6 ms ✓ BaytesPMCMC 6817.5 ms ✓ BaytesSMC 16264.6 ms ✓ Baytes 16 dependencies successfully precompiled in 132 seconds. 163 already precompiled. Precompilation completed after 137.91s ################################################################################ # Testing # Testing Baytes Status `/tmp/jl_aYmjrS/Project.toml` [dce04be8] ArgCheck v2.5.0 [72ddfcfc] Baytes v0.3.16 [e5a8efeb] BaytesCore v0.2.0 [12a76ff9] BaytesDiff v0.3.1 [26b78818] BaytesFilters v0.3.6 [8e6e46a0] BaytesMCMC v0.3.4 [c78c806d] BaytesOptim v0.1.9 [c4a8eb41] BaytesPMCMC v0.3.3 [2428e3a5] BaytesSMC v0.3.6 [31c24e10] Distributions v0.25.123 [ffbed154] DocStringExtensions v0.9.5 ⌃ [f6369f11] ForwardDiff v0.10.39 ⌅ [033835bb] JLD2 v0.4.55 [be115224] MCMCDiagnosticTools v0.3.16 [44c54197] ModelWrappers v0.5.6 ⌅ [d41bc354] NLSolversBase v7.10.0 ⌃ [429524aa] Optim v1.13.3 ⌅ [08abe8d2] PrettyTables v2.4.0 [92933f4c] ProgressMeter v1.11.0 [ce78b400] SimpleUnPack v1.1.0 [10745b16] Statistics v1.11.1 [ade2ca70] Dates v1.11.0 [9a3f8284] Random v1.11.0 [8dfed614] Test v1.11.0 Status `/tmp/jl_aYmjrS/Manifest.toml` [47edcb42] ADTypes v1.21.0 [621f4979] AbstractFFTs v1.5.0 [7d9f7c33] Accessors v0.1.43 [79e6a3ab] Adapt v4.5.0 [66dad0bd] AliasTables v1.1.3 [dce04be8] ArgCheck v2.5.0 [4fba245c] ArrayInterface v7.23.0 [72ddfcfc] Baytes v0.3.16 [e5a8efeb] BaytesCore v0.2.0 [12a76ff9] BaytesDiff v0.3.1 [26b78818] BaytesFilters v0.3.6 [8e6e46a0] BaytesMCMC v0.3.4 [c78c806d] BaytesOptim v0.1.9 [c4a8eb41] BaytesPMCMC v0.3.3 [2428e3a5] BaytesSMC v0.3.6 ⌅ [76274a88] Bijectors v0.13.18 [082447d4] ChainRules v1.73.0 [d360d2e6] ChainRulesCore v1.26.0 [9e997f8a] ChangesOfVariables v0.1.10 [38540f10] CommonSolve v0.2.6 [bbf7d656] CommonSubexpressions v0.3.1 [34da2185] Compat v4.18.1 [a33af91c] CompositionsBase v0.1.2 [187b0558] ConstructionBase v1.6.0 [a8cc5b0e] Crayons v4.1.1 [9a962f9c] DataAPI v1.16.0 [864edb3b] DataStructures v0.19.3 [e2d170a0] DataValueInterfaces v1.0.0 [163ba53b] DiffResults v1.1.0 [b552c78f] DiffRules v1.15.1 [a0c0ee7d] DifferentiationInterface v0.7.16 [31c24e10] Distributions v0.25.123 [ffbed154] DocStringExtensions v0.9.5 [fdbdab4c] ElasticArrays v1.2.12 [4e289a0a] EnumX v1.0.7 [5789e2e9] FileIO v1.18.0 [1a297f60] FillArrays v1.16.0 [6a86dc24] FiniteDiff v2.29.0 ⌃ [f6369f11] ForwardDiff v0.10.39 ⌅ [d9f16b24] Functors v0.4.12 [46192b85] GPUArraysCore v0.2.0 [34004b35] HypergeometricFunctions v0.3.28 [3587e190] InverseFunctions v0.1.17 [92d709cd] IrrationalConstants v0.2.6 [82899510] IteratorInterfaceExtensions v1.0.0 ⌅ [033835bb] JLD2 v0.4.55 [692b3bcd] JLLWrappers v1.7.1 [b964fa9f] LaTeXStrings v1.4.0 ⌃ [d3d80556] LineSearches v7.5.1 [2ab3a3ac] LogExpFunctions v0.3.29 [be115224] MCMCDiagnosticTools v0.3.16 [e80e1ace] MLJModelInterface v1.12.1 [1914dd2f] MacroTools v0.5.16 [dbb5928d] MappedArrays v0.4.3 [e1d29d7a] Missings v1.2.0 [44c54197] ModelWrappers v0.5.6 ⌅ [d41bc354] NLSolversBase v7.10.0 [77ba4419] NaNMath v1.1.3 ⌃ [429524aa] Optim v1.13.3 [bac558e1] OrderedCollections v1.8.1 [90014a1f] PDMats v0.11.37 [85a6dd25] PositiveFactorizations v0.2.4 [aea7be01] PrecompileTools v1.3.3 [21216c6a] Preferences v1.5.2 ⌅ [08abe8d2] PrettyTables v2.4.0 [92933f4c] ProgressMeter v1.11.0 [43287f4e] PtrArrays v1.4.0 [1fd47b50] QuadGK v2.11.2 [c1ae055f] RealDot v0.1.0 [189a3867] Reexport v1.2.2 [ae029012] Requires v1.3.1 [79098fc4] Rmath v0.9.0 [f2b01f46] Roots v2.2.13 [30f210dd] ScientificTypesBase v3.1.0 [efcf1570] Setfield v1.1.2 [ce78b400] SimpleUnPack v1.1.0 [a2af1166] SortingAlgorithms v1.2.2 [dc90abb0] SparseInverseSubset v0.1.2 [276daf66] SpecialFunctions v2.7.1 [1e83bf80] StaticArraysCore v1.4.4 [64bff920] StatisticalTraits v3.5.0 [10745b16] Statistics v1.11.1 [82ae8749] StatsAPI v1.8.0 [2913bbd2] StatsBase v0.34.10 [4c63d2b9] StatsFuns v1.5.2 [892a3eda] StringManipulation v0.4.4 [09ab397b] StructArrays v0.7.2 [3783bdb8] TableTraits v1.0.1 [bd369af6] Tables v1.12.1 [3bb67fe8] TranscodingStreams v0.11.3 [efe28fd5] OpenSpecFun_jll v0.5.6+0 [f50d1b31] Rmath_jll v0.5.1+0 [0dad84c5] ArgTools v1.1.2 [56f22d72] Artifacts v1.11.0 [2a0f44e3] Base64 v1.11.0 [ade2ca70] Dates v1.11.0 [8ba89e20] Distributed v1.11.0 [f43a241f] Downloads v1.7.0 [7b1f6079] FileWatching v1.11.0 [9fa8497b] Future v1.11.0 [b77e0a4c] InteractiveUtils v1.11.0 [ac6e5ff7] JuliaSyntaxHighlighting v1.13.0 [b27032c2] LibCURL v1.0.0 [76f85450] LibGit2 v1.11.0 [8f399da3] Libdl v1.11.0 [37e2e46d] LinearAlgebra v1.13.0 [56ddb016] Logging v1.11.0 [d6f4376e] Markdown v1.11.0 [a63ad114] Mmap v1.11.0 [ca575930] NetworkOptions v1.3.0 [44cfe95a] Pkg v1.14.0 [de0858da] Printf v1.11.0 [3fa0cd96] REPL v1.11.0 [9a3f8284] Random v1.11.0 [ea8e919c] SHA v1.0.0 [9e88b42a] Serialization v1.11.0 [6462fe0b] Sockets v1.11.0 [2f01184e] SparseArrays v1.13.0 [f489334b] StyledStrings v1.13.0 [4607b0f0] SuiteSparse [fa267f1f] TOML v1.0.3 [a4e569a6] Tar v1.10.0 [8dfed614] Test v1.11.0 [cf7118a7] UUIDs v1.11.0 [4ec0a83e] Unicode v1.11.0 [e66e0078] CompilerSupportLibraries_jll v1.3.0+1 [deac9b47] LibCURL_jll v8.18.0+1 [e37daf67] LibGit2_jll v1.9.2+0 [29816b5a] LibSSH2_jll v1.11.3+1 [14a3606d] MozillaCACerts_jll v2025.12.2 [4536629a] OpenBLAS_jll v0.3.30+0 [05823500] OpenLibm_jll v0.8.7+0 [458c3c95] OpenSSL_jll v3.5.5+0 [efcefdf7] PCRE2_jll v10.47.0+0 [bea87d4a] SuiteSparse_jll v7.10.1+0 [83775a58] Zlib_jll v1.3.2+0 [3161d3a3] Zstd_jll v1.5.7+1 [8e850b90] libblastrampoline_jll v5.15.0+0 [8e850ede] nghttp2_jll v1.68.0+1 [3f19e933] p7zip_jll v17.8.0+0 Info Packages marked with ⌃ and ⌅ have new versions available. Those with ⌃ may be upgradable, but those with ⌅ are restricted by compatibility constraints from upgrading. Testing Running tests... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.146 │ 0.253 │ 0.078 │ -0.286 │ -0.033 │ 0.156 │ 0.338 │ 0.631 │ 11.749 │ 10.01 │ 1.289 │ │ σ │ 9.992 │ 0.15 │ 0.025 │ 9.706 │ 9.88 │ 10.0 │ 10.078 │ 10.339 │ 27.676 │ 82.581 │ 1.131 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ ┌───┬──────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.146 │ 0.253 │ 0.078 │ -0.286 │ -0.033 │ 0.156 │ 0.338 │ 0.631 │ 11.749 │ 10.01 │ 1.289 │ │ σ │ 10.0 │ 9.992 │ 0.15 │ 0.025 │ 9.706 │ 9.88 │ 10.0 │ 10.078 │ 10.339 │ 27.676 │ 82.581 │ 1.131 │ └───┴──────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.054 │ 0.259 │ 0.051 │ -0.182 │ -0.079 │ 0.0 │ 0.035 │ 0.775 │ 21.653 │ 12.644 │ 1.414 │ │ σ │ 10.019 │ 0.156 │ 0.016 │ 9.595 │ 9.959 │ 10.0 │ 10.101 │ 10.316 │ 61.514 │ 92.079 │ 1.298 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ ┌───┬──────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.054 │ 0.259 │ 0.051 │ -0.182 │ -0.079 │ 0.0 │ 0.035 │ 0.775 │ 21.653 │ 12.644 │ 1.414 │ │ σ │ 10.0 │ 10.019 │ 0.156 │ 0.016 │ 9.595 │ 9.959 │ 10.0 │ 10.101 │ 10.316 │ 61.514 │ 92.079 │ 1.298 │ └───┴──────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ -0.02 │ 0.208 │ 0.063 │ -0.309 │ -0.191 │ -0.002 │ 0.072 │ 0.542 │ 8.883 │ 39.991 │ 1.434 │ │ σ │ 9.944 │ 0.241 │ 0.071 │ 9.607 │ 9.807 │ 9.955 │ 10.057 │ 10.564 │ 12.216 │ 7.426 │ 1.255 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ ┌───┬──────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ -0.02 │ 0.208 │ 0.063 │ -0.309 │ -0.191 │ -0.002 │ 0.072 │ 0.542 │ 8.883 │ 39.991 │ 1.434 │ │ σ │ 10.0 │ 9.944 │ 0.241 │ 0.071 │ 9.607 │ 9.807 │ 9.955 │ 10.057 │ 10.564 │ 12.216 │ 7.426 │ 1.255 │ └───┴──────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.159 │ 0.313 │ 0.121 │ -0.189 │ -0.089 │ -0.009 │ 0.421 │ 0.702 │ 7.311 │ 9.104 │ 1.611 │ │ σ │ 9.884 │ 0.224 │ 0.053 │ 9.634 │ 9.665 │ 9.896 │ 10.013 │ 10.386 │ 18.469 │ 8.508 │ 1.156 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ ┌───┬──────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.159 │ 0.313 │ 0.121 │ -0.189 │ -0.089 │ -0.009 │ 0.421 │ 0.702 │ 7.311 │ 9.104 │ 1.611 │ │ σ │ 10.0 │ 9.884 │ 0.224 │ 0.053 │ 9.634 │ 9.665 │ 9.896 │ 10.013 │ 10.386 │ 18.469 │ 8.508 │ 1.156 │ └───┴──────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.073 │ 0.331 │ 0.108 │ -0.453 │ -0.138 │ 0.051 │ 0.305 │ 0.781 │ 9.046 │ 24.321 │ 1.434 │ │ σ │ 9.988 │ 0.232 │ 0.034 │ 9.568 │ 9.782 │ 10.0 │ 10.144 │ 10.502 │ 50.164 │ 102.886 │ 1.066 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ ┌───┬──────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.073 │ 0.331 │ 0.108 │ -0.453 │ -0.138 │ 0.051 │ 0.305 │ 0.781 │ 9.046 │ 24.321 │ 1.434 │ │ σ │ 10.0 │ 9.988 │ 0.232 │ 0.034 │ 9.568 │ 9.782 │ 10.0 │ 10.144 │ 10.502 │ 50.164 │ 102.886 │ 1.066 │ └───┴──────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.059 │ 0.439 │ 0.137 │ -0.533 │ -0.312 │ 0.017 │ 0.28 │ 1.099 │ 11.291 │ 26.6 │ 1.311 │ │ σ │ 10.021 │ 0.257 │ 0.027 │ 9.625 │ 9.792 │ 10.02 │ 10.229 │ 10.518 │ 86.933 │ 53.323 │ 1.048 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ ┌───┬──────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.059 │ 0.439 │ 0.137 │ -0.533 │ -0.312 │ 0.017 │ 0.28 │ 1.099 │ 11.291 │ 26.6 │ 1.311 │ │ σ │ 10.0 │ 10.021 │ 0.257 │ 0.027 │ 9.625 │ 9.792 │ 10.02 │ 10.229 │ 10.518 │ 86.933 │ 53.323 │ 1.048 │ └───┴──────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.035 │ 0.296 │ 0.072 │ -0.357 │ -0.158 │ -0.057 │ 0.165 │ 0.884 │ 17.458 │ 22.054 │ 1.248 │ │ σ │ 10.01 │ 0.292 │ 0.051 │ 9.517 │ 9.826 │ 9.978 │ 10.239 │ 10.576 │ 34.269 │ 18.801 │ 1.101 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ ┌───┬──────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.035 │ 0.296 │ 0.072 │ -0.357 │ -0.158 │ -0.057 │ 0.165 │ 0.884 │ 17.458 │ 22.054 │ 1.248 │ │ σ │ 10.0 │ 10.01 │ 0.292 │ 0.051 │ 9.517 │ 9.826 │ 9.978 │ 10.239 │ 10.576 │ 34.269 │ 18.801 │ 1.101 │ └───┴──────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.201 │ 0.322 │ 0.104 │ -0.265 │ -0.045 │ 0.135 │ 0.442 │ 0.864 │ 9.178 │ 25.627 │ 1.405 │ │ σ │ 10.036 │ 0.286 │ 0.031 │ 9.527 │ 9.838 │ 10.006 │ 10.247 │ 10.631 │ 93.295 │ 39.558 │ 1.204 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ ┌───┬──────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.201 │ 0.322 │ 0.104 │ -0.265 │ -0.045 │ 0.135 │ 0.442 │ 0.864 │ 9.178 │ 25.627 │ 1.405 │ │ σ │ 10.0 │ 10.036 │ 0.286 │ 0.031 │ 9.527 │ 9.838 │ 10.006 │ 10.247 │ 10.631 │ 93.295 │ 39.558 │ 1.204 │ └───┴──────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1080.002, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3737.283. NUTS sampler had 37 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 22.642 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.45 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 37, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.252 │ 0.313 │ 0.04 │ -0.293 │ 0.008 │ 0.252 │ 0.458 │ 0.949 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ │ σ │ 10.027 │ 0.211 │ 0.013 │ 9.635 │ 9.891 │ 10.019 │ 10.202 │ 10.438 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1080.486, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3734.96. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 20.86 (27) number of steps and depth of 3.78 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.328 │ 0.371 │ 0.073 │ -0.268 │ 0.083 │ 0.239 │ 0.61 │ 1.055 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ │ σ │ 9.98 │ 0.224 │ 0.029 │ 9.558 │ 9.839 │ 9.96 │ 10.144 │ 10.375 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1079.823, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3738.829. NUTS sampler had 29 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 18.946 (7) number of steps and depth of 3.438 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 29, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1080.344, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3738.273. NUTS sampler had 28 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 19.216 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.42 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 28, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.237 │ 0.29 │ 0.037 │ -0.318 │ 0.034 │ 0.242 │ 0.431 │ 0.84 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ │ σ │ 10.023 │ 0.209 │ 0.011 │ 9.603 │ 9.876 │ 10.037 │ 10.164 │ 10.436 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1080.344, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.25. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 23.02 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.92 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1080.031, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.152. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 20.72 (7) number of steps and depth of 3.71 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.27 │ 0.303 │ 0.035 │ -0.273 │ 0.053 │ 0.259 │ 0.471 │ 0.814 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ │ σ │ 10.035 │ 0.278 │ 0.026 │ 9.499 │ 9.841 │ 10.044 │ 10.205 │ 10.609 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.001, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.56. NUTS sampler had 172 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 48.126 (7) number of steps and depth of 2.5 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 34, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 138, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.004, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.404. NUTS sampler had 75 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 106.748 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.496 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 25, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 50, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.001, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.638. NUTS sampler had 211 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 24.924 (1) number of steps and depth of 2.004 (0). Divergences in: Warmup: 36, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 175, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1.827, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.311. NUTS sampler had 69 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 96.32 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.736 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 19, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 50, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬─────────┬─────────┬─────────┬──────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼─────────┼─────────┼─────────┼──────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ -15.509 │ 69.232 │ 27.937 │ -174.358 │ -0.012 │ 0.349 │ 2.852 │ 52.197 │ 7.32 │ 12.744 │ 1.679 │ │ σ │ 2142.26 │ 42524.1 │ 1258.54 │ 9.64 │ 10.014 │ 10.193 │ 33.407 │ 653.68 │ 8.805 │ 89.617 │ 1.588 │ └───┴─────────┴─────────┴─────────┴──────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.001, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3738.68. NUTS sampler had 25 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 199.06 (1) number of steps and depth of 3.78 (0). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 25, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.015, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.742. NUTS sampler had 15 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 247.04 (2) number of steps and depth of 4.85 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 15, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.779, Avg. final ℓposterior: -5864.068. NUTS sampler had 68 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 49.27 (1) number of steps and depth of 1.48 (0). Divergences in: Warmup: 43, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 25, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.001, Avg. final ℓposterior: -4436.643. NUTS sampler had 25 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 257.44 (1) number of steps and depth of 4.08 (0). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 25, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬─────────┬───────────┬─────────┬─────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬─────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼─────────┼───────────┼─────────┼─────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼─────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 76.445 │ 345.66 │ 73.265 │ -24.356 │ 0.414 │ 15.026 │ 37.974 │ 819.028 │ 11.618 │ 29.818 │ 1.671 │ │ σ │ 18519.2 │ 2.29535e5 │ 15016.9 │ 3.825 │ 10.183 │ 19.998 │ 33.019 │ 34345.4 │ 11.687 │ 37.74 │ 1.467 │ └───┴─────────┴───────────┴─────────┴─────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴─────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.029, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3737.415. NUTS sampler had 68 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 102.658 (23) number of steps and depth of 3.718 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 18, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 50, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.005, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3736.398. NUTS sampler had 85 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 106.268 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.872 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 35, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 50, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.001, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.513. NUTS sampler had 86 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 101.258 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.56 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 36, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 50, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.331, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3736.888. NUTS sampler had 75 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 120.826 (7) number of steps and depth of 3.984 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 25, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 50, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.002, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3738.438. NUTS sampler had 69 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 95.924 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.678 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 19, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 50, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.005, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3739.146. NUTS sampler had 85 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 112.942 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.916 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 35, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 50, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.01, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.581. NUTS sampler had 86 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 99.988 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.558 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 36, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 50, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.176, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.901. NUTS sampler had 74 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 111.43 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.968 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 24, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 50, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬─────────┬─────────┬─────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬─────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼─────────┼─────────┼─────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼─────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 3.144 │ 45.262 │ 4.604 │ -6.625 │ -0.016 │ 0.273 │ 0.552 │ 4.376 │ 48.488 │ 18.811 │ 1.128 │ │ σ │ 2633.99 │ 55242.9 │ 1971.18 │ 9.461 │ 9.873 │ 10.068 │ 10.312 │ 351.801 │ 32.904 │ 18.352 │ 1.083 │ └───┴─────────┴─────────┴─────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴─────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.001, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.42. NUTS sampler had 25 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 276.12 (1) number of steps and depth of 4.75 (0). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 25, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.001, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3736.505. NUTS sampler had 25 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 225.06 (1) number of steps and depth of 4.3 (0). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 25, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.001, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3736.044. NUTS sampler had 25 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 254.76 (1) number of steps and depth of 4.51 (0). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 25, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.001, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3739.437. NUTS sampler had 24 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 266.03 (1) number of steps and depth of 4.64 (0). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 24, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.001, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.42. NUTS sampler had 25 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 266.94 (1) number of steps and depth of 4.77 (0). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 25, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.001, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3736.505. NUTS sampler had 25 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 237.56 (1) number of steps and depth of 4.4 (0). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 25, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.001, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3736.044. NUTS sampler had 25 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 254.86 (1) number of steps and depth of 4.62 (0). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 25, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.001, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3739.437. NUTS sampler had 25 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 257.69 (1) number of steps and depth of 4.53 (0). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 25, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬─────────┬─────────┬─────────┬──────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬─────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼─────────┼─────────┼─────────┼──────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼─────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ -13.764 │ 35.177 │ 7.668 │ -111.726 │ -0.579 │ 0.164 │ 0.733 │ 16.047 │ 39.367 │ 63.118 │ 1.528 │ │ σ │ 5894.78 │ 64537.7 │ 4496.58 │ 9.196 │ 9.953 │ 10.184 │ 17.247 │ 22343.7 │ 18.742 │ 71.73 │ 1.465 │ └───┴─────────┴─────────┴─────────┴──────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴─────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.88, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.647. NUTS sampler had 25 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 24.838 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.506 (5). Divergences in: Warmup: 25, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.187 │ 0.281 │ 0.033 │ -0.306 │ -0.023 │ 0.163 │ 0.366 │ 0.746 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ │ σ │ 10.017 │ 0.207 │ 0.015 │ 9.603 │ 9.869 │ 10.032 │ 10.143 │ 10.446 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -3735.61, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.429. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 19.12 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.65 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.318 │ 0.263 │ 0.043 │ -0.137 │ 0.157 │ 0.289 │ 0.46 │ 0.847 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ │ σ │ 10.019 │ 0.188 │ 0.019 │ 9.669 │ 9.902 │ 10.003 │ 10.157 │ 10.394 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1868.228, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.385. NUTS sampler had 36 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 16.882 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.266 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 36, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1868.233, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3736.682. NUTS sampler had 29 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 18.138 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.358 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 29, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.268 │ 0.292 │ 0.037 │ -0.278 │ 0.038 │ 0.294 │ 0.463 │ 0.798 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ │ σ │ 10.011 │ 0.217 │ 0.012 │ 9.61 │ 9.853 │ 9.992 │ 10.176 │ 10.433 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -3736.187, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3738.659. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 18.32 (3) number of steps and depth of 3.54 (2). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -3735.304, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.755. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 20.42 (9) number of steps and depth of 3.77 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.283 │ 0.275 │ 0.032 │ -0.259 │ 0.097 │ 0.291 │ 0.427 │ 0.812 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ │ σ │ 10.04 │ 0.251 │ 0.026 │ 9.487 │ 9.894 │ 10.064 │ 10.214 │ 10.502 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.88, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2588.564. NUTS sampler had 28 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 20.842 (23) number of steps and depth of 3.518 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 28, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.88, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2588.5. NUTS sampler had 26 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 21.144 (23) number of steps and depth of 3.494 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 26, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1868.178, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2590.226. NUTS sampler had 24 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 19.452 (7) number of steps and depth of 3.326 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 24, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.88, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2588.573. NUTS sampler had 29 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.468 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.31 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 29, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.285 │ 0.349 │ 0.018 │ -0.431 │ 0.058 │ 0.28 │ 0.52 │ 0.964 │ 388.056 │ 583.59 │ 1.014 │ │ σ │ 10.006 │ 0.276 │ 0.014 │ 9.493 │ 9.806 │ 10.0 │ 10.195 │ 10.575 │ 374.169 │ 922.418 │ 1.013 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2589.606, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2696.976. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 20.82 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.77 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2590.039, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2696.732. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.52 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.57 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2589.948, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2696.316. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 19.34 (13) number of steps and depth of 3.59 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2589.697, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2695.548. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.82 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.56 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.284 │ 0.337 │ 0.036 │ -0.349 │ 0.061 │ 0.287 │ 0.517 │ 0.907 │ 85.733 │ 171.701 │ 1.031 │ │ σ │ 10.02 │ 0.27 │ 0.014 │ 9.474 │ 9.841 │ 10.024 │ 10.199 │ 10.575 │ 355.182 │ 192.684 │ 1.03 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.88, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2588.489. NUTS sampler had 22 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.536 (7) number of steps and depth of 3.292 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 22, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.88, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2588.339. NUTS sampler had 22 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 18.106 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.332 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 22, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.88, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2588.986. NUTS sampler had 22 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.84 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.318 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 22, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.88, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2588.669. NUTS sampler had 26 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.334 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.3 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 26, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.88, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2589.687. NUTS sampler had 23 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 16.752 (11) number of steps and depth of 3.278 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 23, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.801, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2588.782. NUTS sampler had 19 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.824 (11) number of steps and depth of 3.336 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 19, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1868.501, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2588.985. NUTS sampler had 20 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 18.64 (23) number of steps and depth of 3.31 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 20, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.88, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2588.485. NUTS sampler had 34 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 16.652 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.272 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 34, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.274 │ 0.37 │ 0.016 │ -0.454 │ 0.021 │ 0.274 │ 0.518 │ 1.013 │ 546.633 │ 802.682 │ 1.008 │ │ σ │ 10.034 │ 0.283 │ 0.007 │ 9.489 │ 9.839 │ 10.018 │ 10.219 │ 10.601 │ 1570.13 │ 1273.3 │ 1.001 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2591.844, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2695.869. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 15.86 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.36 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2589.983, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2696.962. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 18.7 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.7 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2590.994, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2695.538. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 19.92 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.73 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2590.461, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2695.449. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.56 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.55 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2591.856, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2695.742. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.1 (11) number of steps and depth of 3.57 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2589.451, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2695.268. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 19.74 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.71 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2590.166, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2695.369. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 20.42 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.72 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2590.713, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2695.509. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 16.42 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.53 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.292 │ 0.342 │ 0.025 │ -0.37 │ 0.062 │ 0.289 │ 0.505 │ 0.938 │ 190.294 │ 268.263 │ 1.006 │ │ σ │ 10.011 │ 0.245 │ 0.011 │ 9.509 │ 9.845 │ 10.007 │ 10.186 │ 10.484 │ 471.792 │ 372.653 │ 1.011 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Computing... 0%|▏ | ETA: 0:07:22 ( 1.11 s/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 2 logobjective: -3735.7599335028153 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.5413158259350118e-85 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3739.129127462438                         Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:03 ( 7.57 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 100 logobjective: -3736.6338658551654 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9998606429315371 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 127 ℓH: -3738.885526433838 Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -3735.76, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3736.362. NUTS sampler had 27 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 13.156 (95) number of steps and depth of 2.067 (6). Divergences in: Warmup: 27, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -3735.76, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.746. NUTS sampler had 23 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 24.4 (63) number of steps and depth of 2.333 (5). Divergences in: Warmup: 23, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -3735.369, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3737.944. NUTS sampler had 33 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 10.889 (23) number of steps and depth of 2.011 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 33, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -3735.759, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3736.634. NUTS sampler had 18 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 35.067 (127) number of steps and depth of 2.411 (6). Divergences in: Warmup: 18, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.235 │ 0.248 │ 0.05 │ -0.224 │ 0.087 │ 0.177 │ 0.346 │ 0.79 │ 25.168 │ 69.309 │ 1.314 │ │ σ │ 10.025 │ 0.141 │ 0.015 │ 9.708 │ 9.947 │ 10.03 │ 10.113 │ 10.3 │ 79.727 │ 55.197 │ 1.29 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Computing... 0%|▏ | ETA: 0:02:09 ( 0.32 s/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 102 logobjective: -3735.346450791276 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9998397021701971 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 63 ℓH: -3736.320869236958                         Computing... 27%|██████▊ | ETA: 0:00:02 ( 7.06 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 108 logobjective: -3739.9419612403167 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9994268305881419 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 63 ℓH: -3740.66107161963                         Computing... 50%|████████████▋ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 4.29 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 102 logobjective: -3737.54688913482 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9999736034506843 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 31 ℓH: -3738.74070456911                         Computing... 84%|█████████████████████▏ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 3.13 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 138 logobjective: -3735.423366580345 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9999452074208183 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 23 ℓH: -3736.388272705163                         Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:01 ( 2.79 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 200 logobjective: -3735.3317748247227 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9995247668474742 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 31 ℓH: -3736.1793764087743 Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -3735.545, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.487. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 22.089 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.7 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -3736.106, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3737.223. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 26.578 (23) number of steps and depth of 3.822 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -3738.886, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.393. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.933 (7) number of steps and depth of 3.433 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -3736.272, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.332. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 38.133 (31) number of steps and depth of 4.156 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.299 │ 0.337 │ 0.033 │ -0.384 │ 0.074 │ 0.318 │ 0.525 │ 0.942 │ 107.373 │ 116.552 │ 1.046 │ │ σ │ 10.009 │ 0.256 │ 0.02 │ 9.505 │ 9.842 │ 10.008 │ 10.165 │ 10.509 │ 159.094 │ 117.586 │ 1.033 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Computing... 0%|▏ | ETA: 0:02:30 ( 0.38 s/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1000 Avgℓobjective: -3738.4475361328045 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8235437186907668 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:01 ( 4.41 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1099 Avgℓobjective: -3738.3568549150004 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.6424563201373563 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -3738.296, variance: 0.23 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -3738.357, variance: 0.489 Total number of jittering steps: 112. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.752, -0.074, 0.285, 0.653, 0.912]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.316 │ 0.287 │ 0.027 │ -0.289 │ 0.127 │ 0.325 │ 0.513 │ 0.828 │ 112.795 │ 120.72 │ 1.029 │ │ σ │ 10.02 │ 0.222 │ 0.013 │ 9.551 │ 9.881 │ 10.024 │ 10.162 │ 10.461 │ 305.109 │ 250.855 │ 1.017 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Computing... 36%|█████████ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 0.70 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1136 Avgℓobjective: -1578.166140491424 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 1.0 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 72%|██████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 1.85 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1171 Avgℓobjective: -1577.7917681566105 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.7299734142995056 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 80%|████████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 2.05 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1179 Avgℓobjective: -1577.504278571567 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.6864105354784973 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 88%|█████████████████████▉ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 2.18 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1187 Avgℓobjective: -1577.8936726208094 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.36013174356422223 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 95%|███████████████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 2.30 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1195 Avgℓobjective: -1577.755084919033 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.25201971334914436 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:00 ( 2.36 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1199 Avgℓobjective: -1577.4523631873776 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.39150549995288364 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1576.979, variance: 0.199 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1577.452, variance: 0.235 Total number of jittering steps: 230. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.488, 0.135, 0.534, 0.837, 1.0]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.029 │ 0.029 │ 0.003 │ -0.02 │ 0.01 │ 0.031 │ 0.046 │ 0.089 │ 140.345 │ 200.857 │ 1.127 │ │ σ │ 1.014 │ 0.024 │ 0.006 │ 0.966 │ 0.997 │ 1.014 │ 1.03 │ 1.062 │ 18.797 │ 26.369 │ 1.201 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Computing... 0%| | ETA: 0:12:08 ( 0.91 s/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1000 Avgℓobjective: -49567.00504540928 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: NaN generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 13%|███▎ | ETA: 0:00:19 (27.46 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1050 Avgℓobjective: -3738.4913904784617 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.32381700014044307 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 14%|███▌ | ETA: 0:00:18 (26.14 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1055 Avgℓobjective: -3738.2434270615413 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8179018121690376 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 15%|███▊ | ETA: 0:00:17 (25.65 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1059 Avgℓobjective: -3738.237128385915 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.16221193444620993 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 16%|████ | ETA: 0:00:17 (24.99 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1063 Avgℓobjective: -3738.6624567801696 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8696250214129265 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 17%|████▎ | ETA: 0:00:17 (24.83 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 68 logobjective: -3736.2140043890054 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.8996346637449432e-202 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -3736.264501354958                         Computing... 18%|████▌ | ETA: 0:00:16 (24.49 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1070 Avgℓobjective: -3738.256796109817 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.6386048522269255 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 18%|████▋ | ETA: 0:00:16 (24.60 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1073 Avgℓobjective: -3738.8699116678467 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.013516618431589855 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 19%|████▊ | ETA: 0:00:16 (24.46 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 77 logobjective: -3736.1381188031028 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.8643305418125355e-12 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -3737.3202496936783                         Computing... 20%|█████ | ETA: 0:00:15 (23.94 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 81 logobjective: -3735.3132869240976 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.721107421058496 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3735.350716309043                         Computing... 21%|█████▎ | ETA: 0:00:15 (23.57 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1084 Avgℓobjective: -3738.1378328227 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.12203332703139835 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 22%|█████▌ | ETA: 0:00:14 (23.13 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1088 Avgℓobjective: -3740.820001923045 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.5939027264496338 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 24%|█████▉ | ETA: 0:00:14 (22.59 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 95 logobjective: -3736.5098816905675 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.000263344882284997 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3737.4420400661797                         Computing... 24%|██████▏ | ETA: 0:00:14 (22.54 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1097 Avgℓobjective: -3738.5623213813597 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.6407079593149235 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 25%|██████▎ | ETA: 0:00:14 (22.91 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 1 logobjective: -49566.98569141124 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.0 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -49570.509063758145                         Computing... 37%|█████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:10 (20.52 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1048 Avgℓobjective: -3737.845218005207 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9818552861929062 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 38%|█████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:10 (20.36 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1052 Avgℓobjective: -3738.131980805018 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.01264165752837576 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 39%|█████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:10 (20.30 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1056 Avgℓobjective: -3738.2169755636155 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.20505661862832905 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 40%|██████████▏ | ETA: 0:00:10 (20.05 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1061 Avgℓobjective: -3739.783550280107 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.40640369481775196 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 42%|██████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:09 (19.69 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1067 Avgℓobjective: -3738.7493832944037 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.052147306144874284 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 43%|██████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:09 (19.49 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1072 Avgℓobjective: -3738.7389825225673 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.1029640908481535 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 44%|███████████ | ETA: 0:00:09 (19.40 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1076 Avgℓobjective: -3738.459670923166 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.7216090245165223 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 45%|███████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:08 (19.39 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1080 Avgℓobjective: -3738.5040182254197 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.317676734520711 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 47%|███████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:08 (19.11 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1087 Avgℓobjective: -3739.028575994238 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.32884964405397177 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 48%|████████████▏ | ETA: 0:00:08 (18.85 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1093 Avgℓobjective: -3738.721960913936 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.342697904123547 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 50%|████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:08 (18.67 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1098 Avgℓobjective: -3738.7408401090943 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.43183987419478453 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 56%|██████████████▏ | ETA: 0:00:06 (17.22 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1025 Avgℓobjective: -3858.8758005061372 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9995088156774466 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 62%|███████████████▍ | ETA: 0:00:05 (17.06 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1045 Avgℓobjective: -3739.7643324424384 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.29477760245411255 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 63%|███████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:05 (17.05 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1050 Avgℓobjective: -3737.780987297087 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.29482477737413954 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 64%|████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:05 (17.07 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1054 Avgℓobjective: -3738.676374066227 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.0526972344342721 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 64%|████████████████▏ | ETA: 0:00:05 (17.07 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1057 Avgℓobjective: -3738.372695191367 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.28346273568486885 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 65%|████████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:05 (17.12 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1060 Avgℓobjective: -3738.012274255435 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.8160269040156918 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 66%|████████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:05 (17.25 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1063 Avgℓobjective: -3738.676686416065 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.5611696088606998 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 67%|████████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:05 (17.34 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1066 Avgℓobjective: -3738.0010409649863 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.4111129354176189 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 68%|████████████████▉ | ETA: 0:00:05 (17.40 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1069 Avgℓobjective: -3738.463333315586 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.03474214055825203 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 68%|█████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:04 (17.44 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1072 Avgℓobjective: -3739.5701022900917 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.7453327843724721 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 69%|█████████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:04 (17.48 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 76 logobjective: -3735.523080536977 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.9178889317499878e-26 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3736.0609640090565                         Computing... 70%|█████████████████▍ | ETA: 0:00:04 (17.51 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1077 Avgℓobjective: -3739.25499170731 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9317734295124671 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 70%|█████████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:04 (17.54 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 81 logobjective: -3736.6121412143125 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.3332108450014571 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -3738.2746269182335                         Computing... 71%|█████████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:04 (17.63 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1082 Avgℓobjective: -3738.5955387315444 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.6499463651662888 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 72%|█████████████████▉ | ETA: 0:00:04 (17.65 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1085 Avgℓobjective: -3737.832559197378 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.1396066356119321 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 72%|██████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:04 (17.68 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 89 logobjective: -3735.776102768616 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.6380824239206888 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3736.589154390609                         Computing... 73%|██████████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:04 (17.77 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1090 Avgℓobjective: -3738.440030566454 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.22477826209850216 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 73%|██████████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:04 (17.85 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1092 Avgℓobjective: -3738.5265249642703 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.6041430508018755 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 74%|██████████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:04 (17.91 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1095 Avgℓobjective: -3737.758008061234 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.6664645990110761 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 74%|██████████████████▋ | ETA: 0:00:04 (18.01 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1097 Avgℓobjective: -3738.575428170027 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.2055764976477508 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 78%|███████████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:03 (17.42 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1010 Avgℓobjective: -14653.499546485193 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.7226562982382077 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 81%|████████████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:03 (17.52 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1023 Avgℓobjective: -3770.252458973639 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9636573020092984 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 82%|████████████████████▍ | ETA: 0:00:03 (17.69 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 27 logobjective: -3736.0459641470534 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.3333333333333333 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -3736.5383355529616                         Computing... 82%|████████████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:03 (17.78 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1028 Avgℓobjective: -3739.142244244323 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.6384880349362779 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 86%|█████████████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:02 (17.12 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1044 Avgℓobjective: -3738.339902312557 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.08968377384884291 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 91%|██████████████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:01 (16.36 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 65 logobjective: -3735.98518532176 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 5.061959728952215e-220 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3736.097664610094                         Computing... 96%|███████████████████████▉ | ETA: 0:00:01 (16.00 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1081 Avgℓobjective: -3738.7288223305086 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.3666183917542559 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 98%|████████████████████████▍| ETA: 0:00:00 (15.85 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1089 Avgℓobjective: -3738.724717703632 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.5800507226354499 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 99%|████████████████████████▊| ETA: 0:00:00 (15.76 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1095 Avgℓobjective: -3738.050244927933 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.4589002409013204 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:12 (15.70 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1099 Avgℓobjective: -3738.633580804174 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.14320921224236138 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -8898.125, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.877. NUTS sampler had 53 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.667 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.756 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 49, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 4, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -18322.387, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.495. NUTS sampler had 49 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.656 (3) number of steps and depth of 0.833 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 45, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 4, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -8841.796, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.719. NUTS sampler had 52 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.611 (2) number of steps and depth of 0.8 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 47, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 5, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -8110.309, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3738.602. NUTS sampler had 46 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.7 (3) number of steps and depth of 0.822 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 41, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 5, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -9322.816, variance: 1.3211604241e7 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -3738.087, variance: 0.115 Total number of jittering steps: 233. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.283, 0.351, 0.64, 0.874, 0.98]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.75, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 2: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -14108.689, variance: 6.5420403255e7 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -3739.139, variance: 1.382 Total number of jittering steps: 231. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.196, 0.285, 0.65, 0.869, 0.999]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 3: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -10097.426, variance: 4.808001518e6 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -3738.263, variance: 0.094 Total number of jittering steps: 229. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.693, 0.171, 0.445, 0.876, 0.997]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 4: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -14653.5, variance: 7.5305226027e7 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -3738.634, variance: 0.553 Total number of jittering steps: 179. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.598, 0.21, 0.575, 0.822, 0.971]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 6.775]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.212 │ 0.262 │ 0.019 │ -0.255 │ 0.045 │ 0.144 │ 0.411 │ 0.738 │ 206.44 │ 242.525 │ 1.052 │ │ σ │ 9.429 │ 2.603 │ 0.344 │ 2.774 │ 9.77 │ 9.978 │ 10.142 │ 10.592 │ 74.85 │ 70.239 │ 1.062 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Computing... 0%| | ETA: 0:05:31 ( 0.41 s/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1100 Avgℓobjective: -3280.1354532730393 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.3123615495583977 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 2%|▌ | ETA: 0:00:43 (55.35 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 109 logobjective: -2252.2125020085928 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.0 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -2253.68653157087                         Computing... 9%|██▎ | ETA: 0:00:11 (14.49 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 137 logobjective: -1600.6371541507215 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 6.215081505004764e-231 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1603.5699628489108                         Computing... 15%|███▊ | ETA: 0:00:08 (11.08 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1160 Avgℓobjective: -1601.0290964827457 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.5000455898239581 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 18%|████▌ | ETA: 0:00:07 (10.17 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1171 Avgℓobjective: -1602.0781365721325 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.22784666653584226 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 21%|█████▎ | ETA: 0:00:06 ( 9.26 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1184 Avgℓobjective: -1601.994034492661 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.043557243221384934 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 24%|██████ | ETA: 0:00:05 ( 8.66 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1196 Avgℓobjective: -1600.684256554578 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.34792295140303703 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 27%|██████▊ | ETA: 0:00:05 ( 8.27 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 109 logobjective: -1626.203434562638 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.0 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -1626.244801241443                         Computing... 36%|█████████ | ETA: 0:00:03 ( 6.67 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1142 Avgℓobjective: -1609.624188744989 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9772181264894608 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 44%|███████████ | ETA: 0:00:03 ( 6.01 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 176 logobjective: -1601.3154833724507 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 2.485926267624696e-101 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 2 ℓH: -1601.8683348610325                         Computing... 48%|████████████ | ETA: 0:00:02 ( 5.78 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 192 logobjective: -1601.450130694137 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.607273415551025e-29 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1604.527639043656                         Computing... 52%|█████████████ | ETA: 0:00:02 ( 5.82 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1106 Avgℓobjective: -1942.8243534350863 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9973297121967847 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 58%|██████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:02 ( 5.42 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1131 Avgℓobjective: -1604.9706321997369 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.5801907179298781 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 64%|████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 5.15 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1154 Avgℓobjective: -1602.3505149608873 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8456540313751522 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 70%|█████████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 4.88 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 180 logobjective: -1601.8063292089216 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 6.578642536414871e-155 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -1603.2798281362116                         Computing... 76%|███████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 4.70 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 104 logobjective: -3208.7218446776187 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.0 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3208.9198154751493                         Computing... 81%|████████████████████▏ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 4.81 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 123 logobjective: -1601.0196803870263 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.1339108465439083 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -1601.9181910152456                         Computing... 90%|██████████████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 4.50 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1158 Avgℓobjective: -1601.800476260469 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.5987508196737669 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 97%|████████████████████████▎| ETA: 0:00:00 ( 4.51 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 189 logobjective: -1601.397475391739 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.0 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1602.879813843961                         Computing... 99%|█████████████████████████| ETA: 0:00:00 ( 4.54 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 200 logobjective: -1600.685838473154 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.1596215270021888e-36 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1601.6207494202172                         Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:03 ( 4.55 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1199 Avgℓobjective: -1601.1690435060702 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.41279358047570686 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1601.331, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1600.529. NUTS sampler had 52 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.5 (2) number of steps and depth of 0.733 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 45, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 7, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1603.751, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1600.553. NUTS sampler had 54 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.489 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.744 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 49, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 5, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1600.699, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1601.217. NUTS sampler had 42 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.556 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.878 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 36, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 6, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1602.291, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1600.686. NUTS sampler had 46 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.489 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.789 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 35, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 11, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1649.909, variance: 9662.595 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1601.526, variance: 0.48 Total number of jittering steps: 288. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.414, 0.399, 0.799, 0.94, 0.994]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 5.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 2: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1657.19, variance: 4783.287 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1601.309, variance: 0.474 Total number of jittering steps: 258. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.47, 0.063, 0.63, 0.898, 0.999]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 4.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 3: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1657.959, variance: 12811.335 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1601.702, variance: 0.235 Total number of jittering steps: 259. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.713, -0.021, 0.603, 0.923, 0.995]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 4: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1735.154, variance: 70471.348 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1601.169, variance: 0.566 Total number of jittering steps: 292. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.241, 0.175, 0.713, 0.917, 1.0]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 5.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ -0.026 │ 0.059 │ 0.006 │ -0.113 │ -0.053 │ -0.026 │ -0.004 │ 0.046 │ 266.411 │ 71.617 │ 1.052 │ │ σ │ 1.031 │ 0.092 │ 0.012 │ 0.881 │ 1.018 │ 1.033 │ 1.048 │ 1.086 │ 144.281 │ 59.526 │ 1.083 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Computing... 0%|▏ | ETA: 0:04:22 ( 0.66 s/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 2 logobjective: -1079.8232668525707 Temperature: 0.289050497374996 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.31301091036939543 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -1080.1907697625957                         Computing... 48%|████████████ | ETA: 0:00:02 ( 8.05 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 91 logobjective: -3735.2263593133266 Temperature: 0.9996646498695336 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9998678165031936 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 139 ℓH: -3735.317572566728                         Computing... 76%|██████████████████▉ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 5.47 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 2 logobjective: -1080.039013612 Temperature: 0.289050497374996 accepted: true acceptancerate: 4.2919104368565835e-8 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1080.849313309201                         Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:01 ( 4.23 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 100 logobjective: -3735.437336931283 Temperature: 0.9998636296729204 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9997278346783417 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 63 ℓH: -3735.678101730642 Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1868.144, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.373. NUTS sampler had 26 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 18.756 (79) number of steps and depth of 2.144 (6). Divergences in: Warmup: 26, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1869.526, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.303. NUTS sampler had 35 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 59.5 (15) number of steps and depth of 2.4 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 35, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.649, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3737.345. NUTS sampler had 23 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 11.978 (7) number of steps and depth of 1.944 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 23, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.745, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.437. NUTS sampler had 17 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 10.389 (63) number of steps and depth of 1.933 (5). Divergences in: Warmup: 17, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.155 │ 0.285 │ 0.085 │ -0.405 │ 0.04 │ 0.168 │ 0.299 │ 0.73 │ 11.331 │ 17.963 │ 1.324 │ │ σ │ 9.92 │ 0.272 │ 0.098 │ 9.455 │ 9.793 │ 9.973 │ 10.114 │ 10.318 │ 10.146 │ 5.633 │ 1.389 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Computing... 0%|▏ | ETA: 0:02:10 ( 0.33 s/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 102 logobjective: -1079.914977697063 Temperature: 0.289050497374996 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9998669223347451 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 127 ℓH: -1080.2099676413727                         Computing... 15%|███▊ | ETA: 0:00:04 (12.38 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 161 logobjective: -3710.9008278770357 Temperature: 0.9933071490757153 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9985747179970207 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 15 ℓH: -3710.9869387722324                         Computing... 30%|███████▌ | ETA: 0:00:03 (10.71 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 119 logobjective: -2577.348152823593 Temperature: 0.6899744811276125 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9999999484899519 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 703 ℓH: -2578.2987259002975                         Computing... 48%|████████████ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 7.17 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 192 logobjective: -3734.560039701657 Temperature: 0.9996965529699712 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9976309315424731 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 31 ℓH: -3736.7733252197386                         Computing... 70%|█████████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 5.30 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 179 logobjective: -3731.548512651017 Temperature: 0.9988874639671398 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9953923236319783 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 31 ℓH: -3732.957747889596                         Computing... 98%|████████████████████████▍| ETA: 0:00:00 ( 4.06 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 190 logobjective: -3734.427160573237 Temperature: 0.9996293938593735 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9979696059085602 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 31 ℓH: -3735.154027573873                         Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:01 ( 3.97 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 200 logobjective: -3739.3863425718487 Temperature: 0.9998636296729204 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9883485726842672 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 15 ℓH: -3739.8052124135925 Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1868.376, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3734.964. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 26.222 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.889 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1868.224, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.511. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 80.933 (29) number of steps and depth of 4.3 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1868.899, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.32. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 26.889 (39) number of steps and depth of 4.089 (5). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1869.48, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3739.386. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 18.356 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.578 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.278 │ 0.274 │ 0.023 │ -0.259 │ 0.085 │ 0.304 │ 0.461 │ 0.796 │ 136.609 │ 131.956 │ 1.033 │ │ σ │ 10.007 │ 0.235 │ 0.015 │ 9.573 │ 9.852 │ 10.004 │ 10.163 │ 10.445 │ 259.157 │ 248.41 │ 1.009 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Computing... 0%|▏ | ETA: 0:02:13 ( 0.33 s/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1000 Avgℓobjective: -1080.8711792073886 Temperature: 0.289050497374996 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.22777723263088684 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 29%|███████▎ | ETA: 0:00:02 ( 6.72 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1028 Avgℓobjective: -3208.9353710534174 Temperature: 0.8581489350995123 ESS: 3.9999134711002187 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.3498335747546337 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 55%|█████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 4.06 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1055 Avgℓobjective: -3696.7816566653096 Temperature: 0.9890130573694068 ESS: 3.999999832861458 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.1128340378459462 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 84%|█████████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 2.98 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1083 Avgℓobjective: -3736.663125773604 Temperature: 0.9993249172693672 ESS: 3.9999999711197463 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.3188808170794859 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:01 ( 2.64 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1099 Avgℓobjective: -3737.9245738108393 Temperature: 0.9998636296729204 ESS: 3.9999999984462837 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.468115870511318 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1870.003, variance: 4.061 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -3737.925, variance: 0.255 Total number of jittering steps: 117. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.388, 0.145, 0.457, 0.652, 0.945]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.775]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.976, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.232 │ 0.345 │ 0.04 │ -0.411 │ -0.005 │ 0.213 │ 0.465 │ 0.926 │ 75.635 │ 95.695 │ 1.101 │ │ σ │ 10.005 │ 0.264 │ 0.016 │ 9.466 │ 9.837 │ 10.007 │ 10.191 │ 10.53 │ 253.704 │ 174.41 │ 1.034 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Computing... 58%|██████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 0.43 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1157 Avgℓobjective: -1547.10893173224 Temperature: 0.990986701347152 ESS: 3.999995823568304 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.556280479727657 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:00 ( 0.79 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1199 Avgℓobjective: -1559.8999700721681 Temperature: 0.9998636296729204 ESS: 3.999999998963845 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.09199219205579551 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -790.061, variance: 6.089 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1559.9, variance: 1.671 Total number of jittering steps: 226. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.419, 0.093, 0.396, 0.836, 1.0]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.985, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ -0.026 │ 0.032 │ 0.002 │ -0.094 │ -0.048 │ -0.026 │ -0.005 │ 0.035 │ 176.094 │ 150.577 │ 1.037 │ │ σ │ 0.995 │ 0.03 │ 0.004 │ 0.942 │ 0.978 │ 0.994 │ 1.013 │ 1.056 │ 62.166 │ 45.068 │ 1.048 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Computing... 0%| | ETA: 0:11:09 ( 0.84 s/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1000 Avgℓobjective: -13600.871606312277 Temperature: 0.289050497374996 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: NaN generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 13%|███▎ | ETA: 0:00:18 (25.33 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1050 Avgℓobjective: -3671.045391841777 Temperature: 0.9820137900379085 ESS: 3.999995669554592 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.5195366486250343 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 23%|█████▊ | ETA: 0:00:10 (16.74 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 92 logobjective: -3734.536047210297 Temperature: 0.9996965529699712 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.026156949817470257 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -3735.6574550811306                         Computing... 25%|██████▎ | ETA: 0:00:10 (16.11 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1099 Avgℓobjective: -3737.7156411089045 Temperature: 0.9998636296729204 ESS: 3.9999999998221245 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9055949437174146 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 39%|█████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:08 (16.87 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1054 Avgℓobjective: -3693.1506734443883 Temperature: 0.9878715650157257 ESS: 3.9999946612278134 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.5061074901569486 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 42%|██████████▋ | ETA: 0:00:07 (15.81 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 70 logobjective: -3725.7978203276134 Temperature: 0.997268039236989 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.1374033115293381e-15 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 2 ℓH: -3726.5471458743855                         Computing... 45%|███████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:07 (15.28 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 81 logobjective: -3732.109749220059 Temperature: 0.9990889488055994 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.3333333333333333 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -3732.147465203219                         Computing... 48%|███████████▉ | ETA: 0:00:06 (14.82 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1089 Avgℓobjective: -3736.9917237661894 Temperature: 0.9996293938593735 ESS: 3.999999995169775 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9500759481757668 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 50%|████████████▍ | ETA: 0:00:06 (14.62 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1097 Avgℓobjective: -3737.4362829783095 Temperature: 0.9998334419352227 ESS: 3.999999999709818 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.18311971433806773 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 54%|█████████████▋ | ETA: 0:00:05 (13.57 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 18 logobjective: -2499.109367435833 Temperature: 0.6681877721681662 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.0887182482466506e-111 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -2500.0445044311437                         Computing... 59%|██████████████▋ | ETA: 0:00:05 (15.20 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 35 logobjective: -3424.8420294196935 Temperature: 0.9168273035060777 accepted: true acceptancerate: 9.077761802605628e-21 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -3425.195904797692                         Computing... 59%|██████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:05 (15.44 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1035 Avgℓobjective: -3454.715552347373 Temperature: 0.9241418199787566 ESS: 3.9999926815638847 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.2250798623498959 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 60%|██████████████▉ | ETA: 0:00:05 (15.66 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 39 logobjective: -3521.3753364548284 Temperature: 0.9426758241011313 accepted: true acceptancerate: 8.302184124528584e-265 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3524.9259445572316                         Computing... 60%|███████████████ | ETA: 0:00:05 (15.83 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1040 Avgℓobjective: -3560.7082302269537 Temperature: 0.9525741268224334 ESS: 3.9998986595609685 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.57242556297405 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 61%|███████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:05 (15.98 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 44 logobjective: -3602.7387895447314 Temperature: 0.9644288107273639 accepted: true acceptancerate: 3.425197571221173e-35 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3602.935277330026                         Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:14 (18.16 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1099 Avgℓobjective: -3737.9856827315293 Temperature: 0.9998636296729204 ESS: 3.999999999443175 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9089155567285022 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -4098.395, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.223. NUTS sampler had 53 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.556 (3) number of steps and depth of 0.711 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 47, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 6, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -4240.235, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3738.397. NUTS sampler had 51 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.767 (3) number of steps and depth of 0.833 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 42, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 9, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2092.83, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3734.939. NUTS sampler had 47 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.833 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.878 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 43, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 4, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -8745.287, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.284. NUTS sampler had 47 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.556 (3) number of steps and depth of 0.811 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 42, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 5, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -4093.29, variance: 30.459 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -3737.716, variance: 0.145 Total number of jittering steps: 192. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.564, 0.145, 0.454, 0.799, 0.946]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [1.0, 3.806, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 2: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -4081.176, variance: 83709.878 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -3738.42, variance: 2.191 Total number of jittering steps: 195. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.407, 0.011, 0.39, 0.676, 0.943]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.75, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [1.25, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 3: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -2087.519, variance: 29.908 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -3738.09, variance: 0.823 Total number of jittering steps: 196. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.523, 0.148, 0.437, 0.669, 0.959]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [2.546, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 4: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -8093.206, variance: 1.017982357e6 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -3737.986, variance: 0.382 Total number of jittering steps: 195. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.511, 0.057, 0.568, 0.823, 0.97]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [1.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.201 │ 0.308 │ 0.024 │ -0.345 │ -0.006 │ 0.153 │ 0.419 │ 0.817 │ 159.234 │ 161.926 │ 1.035 │ │ σ │ 9.508 │ 1.911 │ 0.471 │ 3.412 │ 9.765 │ 9.975 │ 10.151 │ 10.624 │ 37.747 │ 28.469 │ 1.083 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Computing... 0%| | ETA: 0:05:32 ( 0.42 s/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1100 Avgℓobjective: -937.7688287835126 Temperature: 0.289050497374996 ESS: 3.999999999910658 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.43461781368192964 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 7%|█▊ | ETA: 0:00:12 (16.70 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1127 Avgℓobjective: -1331.6195126275816 Temperature: 0.8455347349164652 ESS: 3.9995142210610837 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.07121962410608301 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 14%|███▍ | ETA: 0:00:07 ( 9.64 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 155 logobjective: -1555.5115866079184 Temperature: 0.9878715650157257 accepted: true acceptancerate: 6.155205585330054e-62 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1555.622629757383                         Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:06 ( 8.73 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1199 Avgℓobjective: -1574.1110214434111 Temperature: 0.9998636296729204 ESS: 3.9999999999258415 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9054270495970107 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -903.438, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1576.357. NUTS sampler had 45 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.689 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.9 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 39, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 6, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -928.707, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1575.285. NUTS sampler had 31 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.578 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.978 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 25, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 6, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -831.649, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1574.154. NUTS sampler had 49 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.611 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.822 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 37, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 12, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -788.049, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1574.505. NUTS sampler had 43 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.656 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.9 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 32, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 11, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1057.073, variance: 34.626 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1574.757, variance: 1.356 Total number of jittering steps: 125. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.567, 0.069, 0.419, 0.728, 0.974]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 6.55]. Quantiles for ESS: [2.386, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 2: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -879.491, variance: 1122.932 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1574.932, variance: 1.423 Total number of jittering steps: 186. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.542, 0.185, 0.614, 0.857, 0.992]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [2.967, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 3: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -826.988, variance: 136.81 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1574.63, variance: 0.22 Total number of jittering steps: 229. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.753, 0.13, 0.587, 0.83, 1.0]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [2.972, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 4: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -788.497, variance: 1.092 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1574.111, variance: 0.102 Total number of jittering steps: 150. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.545, 0.034, 0.366, 0.702, 0.979]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.992, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.031 │ 0.048 │ 0.003 │ -0.045 │ 0.006 │ 0.029 │ 0.049 │ 0.105 │ 321.709 │ 170.957 │ 1.007 │ │ σ │ 1.029 │ 0.124 │ 0.015 │ 0.969 │ 0.998 │ 1.014 │ 1.028 │ 1.185 │ 102.189 │ 44.807 │ 1.034 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Computing... 0%|▏ | ETA: 0:04:36 ( 0.69 s/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 1 logobjective: -1867.8799667514077 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.8663145909811866 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1867.8941454291996                         Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:01 ( 4.01 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 100 logobjective: -1868.7028090586434 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9999607625955212 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 15 ℓH: -1869.0950799838947 Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.993, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1868.032. NUTS sampler had 22 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 12.067 (47) number of steps and depth of 2.0 (5). Divergences in: Warmup: 22, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.954, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1867.938. NUTS sampler had 22 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 11.633 (47) number of steps and depth of 1.956 (5). Divergences in: Warmup: 22, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1868.704, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1868.629. NUTS sampler had 20 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 26.056 (7) number of steps and depth of 2.256 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 20, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1868.325, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1868.703. NUTS sampler had 18 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 10.844 (15) number of steps and depth of 2.0 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 18, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.134 │ 0.294 │ 0.092 │ -0.49 │ -0.055 │ 0.09 │ 0.362 │ 0.634 │ 10.454 │ 36.397 │ 1.38 │ │ σ │ 10.058 │ 0.257 │ 0.03 │ 9.566 │ 9.86 │ 10.002 │ 10.28 │ 10.474 │ 77.03 │ 173.527 │ 1.081 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Computing... 0%|▏ | ETA: 0:02:17 ( 0.35 s/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 101 logobjective: -1868.569334030872 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9986108298657382 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 31 ℓH: -1869.5546481329868                         Computing... 17%|████▎ | ETA: 0:00:04 (11.47 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 118 logobjective: -1868.0387919409359 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9991678923584684 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 39 ℓH: -1868.6673551981228                         Computing... 41%|██████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 5.41 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 142 logobjective: -1872.2249856451738 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9863110821088713 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 31 ℓH: -1872.918197385494                         Computing... 72%|██████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 3.47 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 172 logobjective: -1868.8963656268404 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9982756435134572 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 15 ℓH: -1870.283261205702                         Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:01 ( 2.73 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 200 logobjective: -1867.7840185398718 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9994690389044901 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 15 ℓH: -1868.74836988976 Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1868.856, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1868.143. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 18.6 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.622 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1868.474, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1868.244. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 29.756 (31) number of steps and depth of 4.311 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1869.062, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1867.972. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 25.244 (15) number of steps and depth of 4.056 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.788, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1867.784. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 20.4 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.644 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.262 │ 0.497 │ 0.056 │ -0.772 │ -0.093 │ 0.268 │ 0.595 │ 1.206 │ 76.912 │ 96.764 │ 1.048 │ │ σ │ 10.045 │ 0.305 │ 0.019 │ 9.518 │ 9.828 │ 10.024 │ 10.251 │ 10.641 │ 255.421 │ 272.288 │ 1.008 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Computing... 0%|▏ | ETA: 0:02:24 ( 0.36 s/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1000 Avgℓobjective: -1869.2856463891535 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9823001420538695 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 26%|██████▍ | ETA: 0:00:03 ( 8.95 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1025 Avgℓobjective: -1869.9891399739683 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.32584611095413935 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 39%|█████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:02 ( 6.77 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1038 Avgℓobjective: -1870.158463238052 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.15388774656444754 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 50%|████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 5.79 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1050 Avgℓobjective: -1869.7686224366382 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.27426107879992284 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 72%|██████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 4.38 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1072 Avgℓobjective: -1870.2525369976026 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.693511011643078 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 99%|████████████████████████▉| ETA: 0:00:00 ( 3.43 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1099 Avgℓobjective: -1869.9486230551076 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.6034591689537387 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:01 ( 3.42 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1099 Avgℓobjective: -1869.9486230551076 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.6034591689537387 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1869.732, variance: 1.325 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1869.949, variance: 1.401 Total number of jittering steps: 117. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.418, 0.076, 0.322, 0.684, 0.928]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.243 │ 0.422 │ 0.044 │ -0.583 │ -0.06 │ 0.252 │ 0.559 │ 1.046 │ 94.139 │ 129.864 │ 1.014 │ │ σ │ 10.037 │ 0.34 │ 0.022 │ 9.4 │ 9.796 │ 10.038 │ 10.279 │ 10.655 │ 242.661 │ 189.737 │ 1.017 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Computing... 55%|█████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 0.45 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1155 Avgℓobjective: -787.647796070891 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8864094557601405 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:00 ( 0.78 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1199 Avgℓobjective: -788.5307634639648 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8083091362250122 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -788.155, variance: 0.857 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -788.531, variance: 1.558 Total number of jittering steps: 201. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.067, 0.332, 0.625, 0.838, 0.959]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 7.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.017 │ 0.048 │ 0.005 │ -0.076 │ -0.015 │ 0.014 │ 0.053 │ 0.107 │ 95.393 │ 74.252 │ 1.024 │ │ σ │ 1.014 │ 0.028 │ 0.003 │ 0.97 │ 0.993 │ 1.011 │ 1.033 │ 1.075 │ 116.915 │ 82.666 │ 1.019 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Computing... 0%| | ETA: 0:12:22 ( 0.93 s/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1000 Avgℓobjective: -22973.66692718849 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: NaN generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 13%|███▎ | ETA: 0:00:14 (19.50 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1012 Avgℓobjective: -5168.1376392879065 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8788613764867206 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 23%|█████▋ | ETA: 0:00:15 (24.89 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 23 logobjective: -1867.7965102980688 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.3798796677686143e-5 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1867.9867948103124                         Computing... 23%|█████▉ | ETA: 0:00:15 (25.09 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 24 logobjective: -1868.1880632246473 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 8.178560005045698e-8 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -1868.3491012334503                         Computing... 24%|██████ | ETA: 0:00:15 (25.40 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1023 Avgℓobjective: -2004.8688789382472 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8730566395960796 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 26%|██████▌ | ETA: 0:00:14 (24.46 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1026 Avgℓobjective: -1869.9626030184786 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8432160988158657 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 27%|██████▊ | ETA: 0:00:14 (24.44 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1026 Avgℓobjective: -1869.6596465660457 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.6233492651198176 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 29%|███████▎ | ETA: 0:00:13 (23.37 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1028 Avgℓobjective: -1869.3925426296548 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8463771725626701 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 30%|███████▋ | ETA: 0:00:13 (23.04 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 31 logobjective: -3354.7038279237886 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.0 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3355.8375289461355                         Computing... 31%|███████▊ | ETA: 0:00:13 (22.85 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1031 Avgℓobjective: -1871.1343962810686 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.4313383242897542 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 33%|████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:12 (22.05 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 34 logobjective: -1868.4925000019514 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.3623240930005435 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -1868.5287660978383                         Computing... 35%|████████▋ | ETA: 0:00:11 (21.76 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 35 logobjective: -2411.3519868759167 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.0 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -2411.8480912046807                         Computing... 35%|████████▉ | ETA: 0:00:11 (21.73 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 36 logobjective: -1867.923749002808 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 3.2702699241124044e-12 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1869.6225115721822                         Computing... 36%|█████████ | ETA: 0:00:11 (21.81 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1035 Avgℓobjective: -1869.7517011848042 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9514339740422237 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 38%|█████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:11 (21.22 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1037 Avgℓobjective: -1869.996249131341 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.71502913767091 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 41%|██████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:09 (20.03 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 42 logobjective: -1868.025976571328 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 8.165028057941495e-48 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1869.4453549194398                         Computing... 43%|██████████▉ | ETA: 0:00:09 (19.39 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 44 logobjective: -1867.6787991713907 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 3.863171725109972e-23 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1870.3599990657647                         Computing... 45%|███████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:08 (19.00 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1044 Avgℓobjective: -1870.3050188662462 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.09975347837670212 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 47%|███████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:08 (18.62 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1046 Avgℓobjective: -1871.812002068143 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8359936340859602 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 49%|████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:07 (18.00 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1049 Avgℓobjective: -1870.013941949326 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.6112118014319443 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 51%|████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:07 (17.58 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1051 Avgℓobjective: -1870.2357141145874 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.2566122151332823 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 53%|█████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:06 (17.26 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1052 Avgℓobjective: -1869.8890809173186 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.22053789458478623 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 55%|█████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:06 (16.93 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 55 logobjective: -1869.7076007211797 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 2.30304797763925e-44 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 2 ℓH: -1870.0620808557621                         Computing... 56%|██████████████▏ | ETA: 0:00:06 (16.74 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1056 Avgℓobjective: -1869.9592252324603 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.20104494277294255 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 58%|██████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:06 (16.53 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1057 Avgℓobjective: -1869.5891181821924 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.04255096216709647 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 60%|██████████████▉ | ETA: 0:00:05 (16.51 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1059 Avgℓobjective: -1869.206384124955 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.03302149897944792 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 61%|███████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:05 (16.32 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1060 Avgℓobjective: -1870.7392918415903 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.050910315315441934 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 64%|███████████████▉ | ETA: 0:00:05 (15.89 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1063 Avgℓobjective: -1870.36269430612 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.06411616467951096 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 66%|████████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:04 (15.55 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 66 logobjective: -1870.5360576159728 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 3.246121312899279e-20 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -1870.9846128323813                         Computing... 68%|█████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:04 (15.62 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 68 logobjective: -1868.2678563575373 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.0008709248622432902 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1868.8970498674132                         Computing... 70%|█████████████████▍ | ETA: 0:00:04 (15.47 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1069 Avgℓobjective: -1869.3316032829052 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.5399753665720787 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 71%|█████████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:04 (15.36 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 71 logobjective: -1868.2851838493746 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 4.0777920547215417e-17 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1869.2861085218917                         Computing... 74%|██████████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:03 (15.00 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 74 logobjective: -1867.7744043294788 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 4.116993217868199e-12 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1869.0615926293385                         Computing... 76%|███████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:03 (14.90 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 76 logobjective: -1867.952341760043 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.41464419566411986 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -1868.172690647259                         Computing... 77%|███████████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:03 (14.80 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1077 Avgℓobjective: -1870.2439690187637 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8524360155997466 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 79%|███████████████████▋ | ETA: 0:00:03 (14.74 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 79 logobjective: -1867.6917167128845 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.6000330219026903 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 5 ℓH: -1868.3743133150597                         Computing... 80%|████████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:02 (14.65 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1079 Avgℓobjective: -1869.2499388683018 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8687544561407385 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 82%|████████████████████▍ | ETA: 0:00:02 (14.62 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1081 Avgℓobjective: -1870.1720220472798 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.1871790895811885 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 83%|████████████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:02 (14.47 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1083 Avgℓobjective: -1869.098019562391 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.03073257092672016 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 85%|█████████████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:02 (14.28 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1085 Avgℓobjective: -1869.4926362754748 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.6363668389396987 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 87%|█████████████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:01 (14.20 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1086 Avgℓobjective: -1870.0970311921037 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.7090867360134524 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 89%|██████████████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:01 (14.10 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1088 Avgℓobjective: -1869.7503771268036 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.6661607148987974 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 90%|██████████████████████▋ | ETA: 0:00:01 (14.09 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1090 Avgℓobjective: -1869.6770796002286 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.5107964809226785 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 92%|███████████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:01 (14.05 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1091 Avgℓobjective: -1869.9302035514597 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.2741495827523711 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 93%|███████████████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:01 (13.97 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1093 Avgℓobjective: -1869.3973968050486 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.19403168104067336 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:15 (19.87 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1099 Avgℓobjective: -1869.5014787622765 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.04143695120250035 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -12953.685, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1868.566. NUTS sampler had 39 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 2.033 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.911 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 36, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 3, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -3981.108, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1867.754. NUTS sampler had 41 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.856 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.867 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 37, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 4, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -8673.705, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1868.127. NUTS sampler had 36 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 2.022 (3) number of steps and depth of 0.911 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 33, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 3, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -8959.703, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1869.123. NUTS sampler had 37 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 2.089 (3) number of steps and depth of 0.944 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 33, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 4, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -10426.685, variance: 7.272574302e6 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1871.63, variance: 0.353 Total number of jittering steps: 191. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.409, 0.145, 0.522, 0.72, 0.966]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 8.775]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 2: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -6122.054, variance: 1.5989613485e7 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1869.912, variance: 1.308 Total number of jittering steps: 265. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.326, 0.138, 0.495, 0.782, 0.966]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 3: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -8329.162, variance: 2.612735863e7 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1870.057, variance: 2.694 Total number of jittering steps: 239. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.489, 0.174, 0.561, 0.846, 0.977]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 4: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -6337.598, variance: 2.1188930828e7 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1869.501, variance: 0.572 Total number of jittering steps: 151. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.464, 0.133, 0.575, 0.835, 0.971]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 6.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.266 │ 0.428 │ 0.026 │ -0.533 │ 0.016 │ 0.202 │ 0.56 │ 1.162 │ 290.086 │ 97.004 │ 1.016 │ │ σ │ 9.25 │ 2.391 │ 0.365 │ 2.307 │ 9.675 │ 9.976 │ 10.221 │ 10.769 │ 115.568 │ 56.951 │ 1.04 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Computing... 0%| | ETA: 0:05:59 ( 0.45 s/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1100 Avgℓobjective: -1455.188153204078 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.11253800338883668 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 6%|█▍ | ETA: 0:00:18 (23.35 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 106 logobjective: -858.6701220069523 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.12644235923586e-67 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 2 ℓH: -860.6790734005618                         Computing... 9%|██▎ | ETA: 0:00:12 (16.22 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1109 Avgℓobjective: -800.6156133311802 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9724083864395057 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 16%|████ | ETA: 0:00:07 (10.36 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1115 Avgℓobjective: -780.6578465914077 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.30153938667084734 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 30%|███████▌ | ETA: 0:00:03 ( 5.92 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1129 Avgℓobjective: -780.6186162270549 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.4561978574998843 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 44%|███████████ | ETA: 0:00:02 ( 4.29 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1143 Avgℓobjective: -780.8552072382603 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9120801354095593 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 58%|██████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 3.49 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 159 logobjective: -780.2946283372061 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 4.878386509943886e-19 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -783.0746140516137                         Computing... 75%|██████████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 2.89 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 175 logobjective: -780.2751802210473 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.3333333333333333 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -780.3278271324286                         Computing... 90%|██████████████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 2.56 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 190 logobjective: -780.3237879627629 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 2.6493148692820496e-114 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -781.6833553213534                         Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:01 ( 2.37 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1199 Avgℓobjective: -780.8554534376754 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.3581336159018975 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -783.872, Avg. final ℓposterior: -780.544. NUTS sampler had 29 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.7 (1) number of steps and depth of 1.0 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 24, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 5, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -780.575, Avg. final ℓposterior: -780.196. NUTS sampler had 28 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.644 (1) number of steps and depth of 1.022 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 22, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 6, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -783.701, Avg. final ℓposterior: -780.206. NUTS sampler had 32 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.778 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.978 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 26, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 6, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -781.244, Avg. final ℓposterior: -780.505. NUTS sampler had 26 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.667 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.989 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 23, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 3, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -799.697, variance: 1339.984 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -781.666, variance: 2.061 Total number of jittering steps: 193. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.41, 0.199, 0.536, 0.798, 0.966]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 8.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 2: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -794.661, variance: 759.6 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -780.469, variance: 0.198 Total number of jittering steps: 121. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.289, 0.155, 0.54, 0.722, 0.957]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 3: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -789.035, variance: 277.561 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -780.76, variance: 0.366 Total number of jittering steps: 158. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.237, 0.267, 0.612, 0.848, 0.96]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 4.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 4: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -781.437, variance: 0.732 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -780.855, variance: 1.268 Total number of jittering steps: 94. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.585, -0.03, 0.253, 0.577, 0.906]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ -0.073 │ 0.041 │ 0.002 │ -0.15 │ -0.103 │ -0.077 │ -0.042 │ 0.006 │ 280.196 │ 299.249 │ 1.001 │ │ σ │ 0.999 │ 0.034 │ 0.002 │ 0.942 │ 0.981 │ 0.999 │ 1.021 │ 1.051 │ 239.341 │ 259.2 │ 1.012 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Computing... 0%|▏ | ETA: 0:04:48 ( 0.72 s/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 1 logobjective: -1868.1259984399285 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.25017795818851435 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -1868.5039789215746                         Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:01 ( 4.46 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 100 logobjective: -2044.0363103256977 Temperature: 0.5460980646457352 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9999354448413731 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 127 ℓH: -2044.5970601027022 Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1885.976, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2040.15. NUTS sampler had 22 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 18.689 (127) number of steps and depth of 2.122 (6). Divergences in: Warmup: 22, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1886.578, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2042.236. NUTS sampler had 27 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 15.611 (31) number of steps and depth of 2.089 (5). Divergences in: Warmup: 27, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1886.002, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2040.588. NUTS sampler had 29 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 20.589 (15) number of steps and depth of 2.111 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 29, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1885.84, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2044.036. NUTS sampler had 16 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 34.844 (127) number of steps and depth of 2.367 (6). Divergences in: Warmup: 16, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.208 │ 0.302 │ 0.068 │ -0.331 │ 0.055 │ 0.203 │ 0.296 │ 1.022 │ 15.415 │ 21.588 │ 1.263 │ │ σ │ 10.049 │ 0.307 │ 0.054 │ 9.586 │ 9.849 │ 9.995 │ 10.259 │ 10.626 │ 40.749 │ 20.094 │ 1.109 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Computing... 0%|▏ | ETA: 0:02:43 ( 0.41 s/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 101 logobjective: -2041.8451445979915 Temperature: 0.5465413282544795 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9997426135173805 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 111 ℓH: -2042.9628712872404                         Computing... 10%|██▌ | ETA: 0:00:09 (23.67 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 110 logobjective: -2056.4119497566917 Temperature: 0.5505112720162764 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9993020567336105 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 17 ℓH: -2057.275011530453                         Computing... 19%|████▊ | ETA: 0:00:04 (13.84 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 119 logobjective: -2071.509725607885 Temperature: 0.554446459681313 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9999805767495747 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 95 ℓH: -2071.7122954029883                         Computing... 38%|█████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:02 ( 7.57 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 139 logobjective: -2104.3296073894553 Temperature: 0.5630684148921733 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9969383484865848 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 31 ℓH: -2107.525070233737                         Computing... 70%|█████████████████▍ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 4.56 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 170 logobjective: -2151.954712255461 Temperature: 0.5761038915617922 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.99519598141027 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 15 ℓH: -2154.126985298844                         Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:01 ( 3.41 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 200 logobjective: -2199.555211194648 Temperature: 0.5883484625830675 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9868989599222585 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 23 ℓH: -2200.492433211325 Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2058.772, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2201.15. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 19.6 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.667 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2059.377, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2197.999. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 21.467 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.644 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2059.128, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2199.59. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 33.489 (3) number of steps and depth of 4.189 (2). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2058.129, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2199.555. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 35.911 (23) number of steps and depth of 4.089 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.311 │ 0.38 │ 0.037 │ -0.465 │ 0.069 │ 0.301 │ 0.508 │ 1.142 │ 112.346 │ 85.324 │ 1.018 │ │ σ │ 10.048 │ 0.289 │ 0.022 │ 9.536 │ 9.855 │ 10.04 │ 10.25 │ 10.643 │ 174.746 │ 193.803 │ 1.014 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Computing... 0%|▏ | ETA: 0:02:30 ( 0.38 s/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1000 Avgℓobjective: -1869.1138320694351 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.7306022417320018 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 26%|██████▍ | ETA: 0:00:03 ( 8.70 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1025 Avgℓobjective: -1914.6317266609885 Temperature: 0.5120650453944637 ESS: 3.999999792735914 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.579365421444566 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 45%|███████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 6.14 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1044 Avgℓobjective: -1948.0637615201535 Temperature: 0.5210393930132609 ESS: 3.999994414917521 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8100621005228021 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 54%|█████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 5.63 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1053 Avgℓobjective: -1964.0688199835051 Temperature: 0.5252326013304246 ESS: 3.999998867487573 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.4422901953114189 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 73%|██████████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 4.55 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1072 Avgℓobjective: -1996.2335714181197 Temperature: 0.5339647645696357 ESS: 3.9999968846802165 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.5780746252582245 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 91%|██████████████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 3.94 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1090 Avgℓobjective: -2027.3633988908916 Temperature: 0.5420891428540582 ESS: 3.999996833549183 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.07532982573281355 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:01 ( 3.70 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1099 Avgℓobjective: -2043.3361829315572 Temperature: 0.5460980646457352 ESS: 3.9999999407483733 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.4759801679191281 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1887.914, variance: 0.14 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -2043.336, variance: 6.201 Total number of jittering steps: 120. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.421, 0.008, 0.354, 0.742, 0.974]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.775]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.275 │ 0.357 │ 0.035 │ -0.439 │ 0.05 │ 0.3 │ 0.538 │ 0.889 │ 110.101 │ 99.456 │ 1.046 │ │ σ │ 10.046 │ 0.306 │ 0.018 │ 9.47 │ 9.808 │ 10.048 │ 10.253 │ 10.652 │ 269.321 │ 175.906 │ 1.026 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Computing... 49%|████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 0.51 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1148 Avgℓobjective: -889.7993418307287 Temperature: 0.5673166225811648 ESS: 3.9999984092563055 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.5469125654144311 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 97%|████████████████████████▎| ETA: 0:00:00 ( 1.19 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1196 Avgℓobjective: -920.5553445152459 Temperature: 0.5871400928911229 ESS: 3.999999899102158 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.23457567579102762 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:00 ( 1.23 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1199 Avgℓobjective: -922.2384485679237 Temperature: 0.5883484625830675 ESS: 3.9999982426125498 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.11059342999140956 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -864.827, variance: 2.741 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -922.238, variance: 0.106 Total number of jittering steps: 226. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.455, 0.104, 0.432, 0.769, 1.0]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ -0.009 │ 0.042 │ 0.003 │ -0.089 │ -0.033 │ -0.007 │ 0.017 │ 0.078 │ 146.136 │ 140.362 │ 1.061 │ │ σ │ 1.0 │ 0.03 │ 0.003 │ 0.947 │ 0.975 │ 0.999 │ 1.021 │ 1.06 │ 97.542 │ 74.518 │ 1.098 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Computing... 0%| | ETA: 0:11:57 ( 0.90 s/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1000 Avgℓobjective: -24126.353531121742 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: NaN generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 16%|████ | ETA: 0:00:13 (19.39 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1015 Avgℓobjective: -4326.562880909632 Temperature: 0.5072743621048759 ESS: 3.7519180269614254 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.744073740209324 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 18%|████▌ | ETA: 0:00:14 (21.67 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1018 Avgℓobjective: -1910.0109879005258 Temperature: 0.5087164850066754 ESS: 3.9993756823229285 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.6260475818766351 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 19%|████▊ | ETA: 0:00:14 (21.54 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1018 Avgℓobjective: -3027.007152610879 Temperature: 0.5087164850066754 ESS: 3.270776833411365 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9545074175323276 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 20%|█████ | ETA: 0:00:15 (23.93 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1019 Avgℓobjective: -2330.8688243722067 Temperature: 0.509196254064286 ESS: 3.259868225786785 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.5853019880709741 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 21%|█████▎ | ETA: 0:00:17 (26.92 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1020 Avgℓobjective: -2107.0992544419046 Temperature: 0.5096755545974264 ESS: 3.4933412339718095 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.578931137961676 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 23%|█████▊ | ETA: 0:00:17 (27.85 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 24 logobjective: -1910.1457519980165 Temperature: 0.511110649623226 accepted: true acceptancerate: 2.711454532266645e-7 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 2 ℓH: -1910.3010906324394                         Computing... 24%|█████▉ | ETA: 0:00:17 (28.09 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1023 Avgℓobjective: -1912.0310706854261 Temperature: 0.511110649623226 ESS: 3.9999997306278465 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8126960494758768 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 24%|██████▏ | ETA: 0:00:17 (27.95 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1024 Avgℓobjective: -1912.9693650114073 Temperature: 0.5115880806294534 ESS: 3.9999986809856307 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9481232040122038 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 25%|██████▎ | ETA: 0:00:17 (28.95 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1024 Avgℓobjective: -2048.7775228163327 Temperature: 0.5115880806294534 ESS: 3.860937274735269 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9651056119124091 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 26%|██████▌ | ETA: 0:00:17 (28.60 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1026 Avgℓobjective: -1915.978618630397 Temperature: 0.5125415443735707 ESS: 3.999999245430874 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.06672789169427198 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 27%|██████▊ | ETA: 0:00:17 (28.80 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 27 logobjective: -1914.5127797051239 Temperature: 0.5125415443735707 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.33333756680622484 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -1914.6651866134423                         Computing... 28%|██████▉ | ETA: 0:00:17 (28.58 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 28 logobjective: -1917.0541190533706 Temperature: 0.5130175780216433 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.16071483503078224 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 5 ℓH: -1919.4431382330456                         Computing... 28%|███████ | ETA: 0:00:16 (28.62 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1028 Avgℓobjective: -1919.6121287793478 Temperature: 0.5134931467931065 ESS: 3.999999831688344 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.580537195843801 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 30%|███████▌ | ETA: 0:00:15 (27.38 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1029 Avgℓobjective: -1923.2596094667695 Temperature: 0.5139682511419414 ESS: 3.8621196781452944 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.420333366424738 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 34%|████████▍ | ETA: 0:00:13 (24.92 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1033 Avgℓobjective: -1929.5227099966064 Temperature: 0.5158640333751106 ESS: 3.9999976546547065 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.42130569289911557 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 38%|█████████▋ | ETA: 0:00:11 (22.02 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1038 Avgℓobjective: -1938.0933814233936 Temperature: 0.5182233659509425 ESS: 3.9999972582505032 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.7177605721346887 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 46%|███████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:08 (18.81 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1045 Avgℓobjective: -1950.0151105935388 Temperature: 0.5215071279810213 ESS: 3.9999995242384814 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.7854651279939451 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 53%|█████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:06 (16.55 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 53 logobjective: -1960.2321518291512 Temperature: 0.5247685080765931 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.14333587041130644 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1960.7704025985308                         Computing... 59%|██████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:05 (15.05 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 60 logobjective: -1972.3082851728693 Temperature: 0.5280076587916458 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.5178841276265533 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 5 ℓH: -1972.5357383173416                         Computing... 65%|████████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:04 (13.95 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1064 Avgℓobjective: -1984.0522796502066 Temperature: 0.5303078120190942 ESS: 3.999994430558588 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.7837489989190594 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 70%|█████████████████▋ | ETA: 0:00:03 (13.00 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1070 Avgℓobjective: -1993.1222689791139 Temperature: 0.5330532044246938 ESS: 3.999997716437349 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8891455584614325 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 76%|███████████████████▏ | ETA: 0:00:02 (12.17 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 77 logobjective: -2001.6268055985004 Temperature: 0.5357825497687208 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.1340598755936667 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -2003.5740557028644                         Computing... 82%|████████████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:02 (11.46 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1082 Avgℓobjective: -2013.2170764488246 Temperature: 0.5384959418476701 ESS: 3.9999991746115535 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9754326890919717 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 88%|██████████████████████▏ | ETA: 0:00:01 (10.79 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1088 Avgℓobjective: -2023.7504053194289 Temperature: 0.5411934739097883 ESS: 3.999999862643213 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.22050387387411607 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 95%|███████████████████████▋ | ETA: 0:00:00 (10.25 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 95 logobjective: -2031.7593772167636 Temperature: 0.543875238658277 accepted: true acceptancerate: 3.874398904613237e-6 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -2033.02875508163                         Computing... 99%|█████████████████████████| ETA: 0:00:00 ( 9.85 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 100 logobjective: -2039.9208890670386 Temperature: 0.5460980646457352 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.0019993645346288507 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -2040.3408181378072                         Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:07 ( 9.84 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1099 Avgℓobjective: -2041.451788801196 Temperature: 0.5460980646457352 ESS: 3.9999998502975127 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8075792018177325 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -5178.822, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2039.855. NUTS sampler had 30 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 2.1 (3) number of steps and depth of 0.956 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 28, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 2, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -8730.038, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2039.972. NUTS sampler had 29 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 2.133 (6) number of steps and depth of 1.0 (2). Divergences in: Warmup: 28, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 1, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -6330.262, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2040.178. NUTS sampler had 36 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 2.056 (7) number of steps and depth of 0.978 (2). Divergences in: Warmup: 31, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 5, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -6549.108, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2039.921. NUTS sampler had 36 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.711 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.867 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 33, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 3, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -5052.002, variance: 2.231030527e6 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -2041.752, variance: 0.618 Total number of jittering steps: 137. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.266, 0.248, 0.557, 0.762, 0.975]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 6.55]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.229, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 2: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -7488.147, variance: 402225.899 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -2042.68, variance: 2.452 Total number of jittering steps: 151. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.275, 0.165, 0.55, 0.744, 0.967]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 5.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.42, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 3: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -5683.811, variance: 2.837471615e6 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -2042.067, variance: 0.741 Total number of jittering steps: 179. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.302, 0.213, 0.562, 0.785, 0.958]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 6.775]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.446, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 4: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -6504.139, variance: 114464.623 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -2041.452, variance: 0.054 Total number of jittering steps: 219. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.524, 0.054, 0.398, 0.798, 0.973]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.253, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.224 │ 0.397 │ 0.04 │ -0.491 │ -0.031 │ 0.215 │ 0.484 │ 1.012 │ 113.829 │ 147.77 │ 1.051 │ │ σ │ 9.706 │ 2.796 │ 0.234 │ 3.41 │ 9.735 │ 9.986 │ 10.212 │ 10.627 │ 114.527 │ 43.327 │ 1.027 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Computing... 0%| | ETA: 0:06:03 ( 0.46 s/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1100 Avgℓobjective: -1146.324842775106 Temperature: 0.5465413282544795 ESS: 3.9999987773896986 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.18933763336825563 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 12%|███ | ETA: 0:00:08 (10.64 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 112 logobjective: -862.9396112446909 Temperature: 0.5513887510222641 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.048765070725297816 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -864.0167085376944                         Computing... 26%|██████▌ | ETA: 0:00:03 ( 5.42 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1125 Avgℓobjective: -873.0738033571591 Temperature: 0.5574833271727253 ESS: 3.9999994262624345 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.42345574136340575 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 41%|██████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:02 ( 3.74 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1140 Avgℓobjective: -883.0996575482432 Temperature: 0.5639213802039063 ESS: 3.999999247042791 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.4878464119666062 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 56%|██████████████ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 2.96 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 156 logobjective: -892.5587524426728 Temperature: 0.5702657677770886 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.730682388249674e-19 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 2 ℓH: -892.8973069364962                         Computing... 71%|█████████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 2.51 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1171 Avgℓobjective: -902.2567204325939 Temperature: 0.5769314093897541 ESS: 3.9999998962757735 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.7411735911308447 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 87%|█████████████████████▋ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 2.25 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 187 logobjective: -911.7085208372646 Temperature: 0.5830865176363509 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.531294055116312e-122 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -913.1606447058838                         Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:01 ( 2.07 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1199 Avgℓobjective: -920.6526910343398 Temperature: 0.5883484625830675 ESS: 3.999999455881023 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.34237208087756976 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -862.338, Avg. final ℓposterior: -922.399. NUTS sampler had 34 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.767 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.978 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 27, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 7, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -863.163, Avg. final ℓposterior: -923.97. NUTS sampler had 36 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.711 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.989 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 31, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 5, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -869.256, Avg. final ℓposterior: -919.903. NUTS sampler had 29 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.567 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.967 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 23, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 6, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -861.543, Avg. final ℓposterior: -920.379. NUTS sampler had 49 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.844 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.944 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 42, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 7, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -862.919, variance: 2.474 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -920.467, variance: 0.849 Total number of jittering steps: 106. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.441, 0.14, 0.45, 0.672, 0.962]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 2: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -862.703, variance: 0.352 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -921.865, variance: 3.238 Total number of jittering steps: 97. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.687, -0.008, 0.269, 0.569, 0.931]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 3: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -863.255, variance: 5.663 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -920.483, variance: 0.489 Total number of jittering steps: 120. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.665, 0.039, 0.352, 0.735, 0.925]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 4: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -861.968, variance: 0.131 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -920.653, variance: 0.638 Total number of jittering steps: 207. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.61, -0.045, 0.42, 0.781, 0.974]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ -0.033 │ 0.041 │ 0.003 │ -0.116 │ -0.061 │ -0.032 │ -0.003 │ 0.043 │ 222.887 │ 231.526 │ 1.011 │ │ σ │ 1.002 │ 0.031 │ 0.002 │ 0.943 │ 0.979 │ 1.0 │ 1.024 │ 1.059 │ 229.834 │ 289.027 │ 1.014 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -382.679, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2253.102. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 15.092 (23) number of steps and depth of 3.308 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -383.528, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2253.507. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 15.572 (23) number of steps and depth of 3.36 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -383.993, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2253.653. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 14.756 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.262 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -384.153, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2253.756. NUTS sampler had 1 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 15.524 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.352 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 1, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.181 │ 0.536 │ 0.032 │ -0.927 │ -0.175 │ 0.202 │ 0.531 │ 1.185 │ 299.283 │ 249.612 │ 1.024 │ │ σ │ 10.308 │ 0.507 │ 0.052 │ 9.116 │ 10.038 │ 10.332 │ 10.618 │ 11.208 │ 111.471 │ 83.876 │ 1.025 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 400. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 400 Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2258.211, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.639. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 16.13 (7) number of steps and depth of 3.445 (2). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2257.081, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3737.115. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 18.125 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.592 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2256.878, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3736.134. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 15.385 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.4 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2256.693, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.522. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 14.62 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.342 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.181 │ 0.358 │ 0.024 │ -0.515 │ -0.076 │ 0.189 │ 0.424 │ 0.905 │ 217.664 │ 335.817 │ 1.026 │ │ σ │ 10.094 │ 0.281 │ 0.043 │ 9.594 │ 9.89 │ 10.083 │ 10.281 │ 10.704 │ 43.749 │ 602.8 │ 1.064 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -386.829, variance: 3.98 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -2256.246, variance: 0.57 Total number of jittering steps: 545. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.622, 0.06, 0.358, 0.669, 0.92]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.869, 3.988, 3.995, 3.998, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.191 │ 0.541 │ 0.035 │ -0.966 │ -0.139 │ 0.223 │ 0.563 │ 1.185 │ 253.726 │ 302.163 │ 1.028 │ │ σ │ 10.323 │ 0.519 │ 0.05 │ 9.046 │ 10.058 │ 10.352 │ 10.629 │ 11.261 │ 124.543 │ 90.461 │ 1.035 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1934.497, variance: 457.537 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1569.273, variance: 1.06 Total number of jittering steps: 562. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.783, 0.009, 0.368, 0.69, 0.934]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.939, 3.994, 3.998, 3.999, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.086 │ 0.068 │ 0.003 │ -0.001 │ 0.057 │ 0.083 │ 0.107 │ 0.162 │ 48.63 │ 381.837 │ 1.062 │ │ σ │ 1.082 │ 0.728 │ 0.04 │ 0.949 │ 0.986 │ 1.003 │ 1.021 │ 1.06 │ 775.443 │ 642.105 │ 1.015 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel SMC2Kernel Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 97.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -158.388, variance: 4.156 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -972.338, variance: 1.3 Total number of jittering steps: 89. Rejuvenations on average every 33.333 step, every 20.833 steps in first half, every 83.333 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.336, -0.117, 0.011, 0.168, 0.562]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.35, 4.0, 6.0, 9.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [2.977, 3.426, 3.682, 3.877, 3.988] for 4 chains. ┌────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ1 │ -0.323 │ 0.836 │ 0.236 │ -2.22 │ -0.635 │ -0.273 │ 0.262 │ 0.912 │ 10.778 │ 46.267 │ 1.291 │ │ μ2 │ 1.953 │ 0.091 │ 0.014 │ 1.765 │ 1.886 │ 1.945 │ 2.027 │ 2.102 │ 38.335 │ 30.142 │ 1.261 │ │ σ1 │ 2.004 │ 0.497 │ 0.076 │ 1.414 │ 1.79 │ 1.933 │ 2.151 │ 3.089 │ 34.574 │ 33.927 │ 1.082 │ │ σ2 │ 0.985 │ 0.061 │ 0.01 │ 0.839 │ 0.96 │ 0.981 │ 1.028 │ 1.106 │ 31.678 │ 45.277 │ 1.17 │ │ p1 │ 0.136 │ 0.049 │ 0.018 │ 0.057 │ 0.095 │ 0.132 │ 0.177 │ 0.24 │ 8.033 │ 51.341 │ 1.454 │ │ p2 │ 0.864 │ 0.049 │ 0.018 │ 0.76 │ 0.823 │ 0.868 │ 0.905 │ 0.943 │ 8.033 │ 20.781 │ 1.454 │ └────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel SMC2Kernel Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 98.6%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -975.086, variance: 1.418 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1587.685, variance: 1.246 Total number of jittering steps: 60. Rejuvenations on average every 71.429 step, every 50.0 steps in first half, every 125.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [0.031, 0.36, 0.454, 0.494, 0.757]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [3.6, 8.5, 10.0, 10.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.077, 3.353, 3.653, 3.805, 3.976] for 4 chains. ┌────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ1 │ -0.075 │ 0.117 │ 0.028 │ -0.286 │ -0.127 │ -0.073 │ -0.041 │ 0.21 │ 19.997 │ 21.871 │ 1.166 │ │ μ2 │ 0.804 │ 0.537 │ 0.22 │ -0.221 │ 0.289 │ 0.776 │ 1.25 │ 1.889 │ 5.986 │ 8.815 │ 1.809 │ │ σ1 │ 0.984 │ 0.145 │ 0.021 │ 0.834 │ 0.91 │ 0.96 │ 1.043 │ 1.079 │ 9.369 │ 38.388 │ 1.376 │ │ σ2 │ 0.94 │ 0.087 │ 0.022 │ 0.817 │ 0.851 │ 0.925 │ 0.994 │ 1.096 │ 14.796 │ NaN │ 1.294 │ │ p1 │ 0.782 │ 0.125 │ 0.027 │ 0.55 │ 0.738 │ 0.802 │ 0.861 │ 0.914 │ 9.67 │ NaN │ 1.333 │ │ p2 │ 0.218 │ 0.125 │ 0.027 │ 0.086 │ 0.139 │ 0.198 │ 0.262 │ 0.45 │ 9.67 │ 10.794 │ 1.333 │ └────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -111.004, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2253.041. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 15.252 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.344 (5). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -110.669, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2253.044. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 15.624 (19) number of steps and depth of 3.356 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -111.115, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2253.771. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 15.62 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.336 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -110.614, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2253.026. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.624 (7) number of steps and depth of 3.468 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.225 │ 0.541 │ 0.032 │ -0.841 │ -0.115 │ 0.219 │ 0.553 │ 1.329 │ 289.952 │ 381.955 │ 1.03 │ │ σ │ 10.315 │ 0.534 │ 0.053 │ 9.025 │ 10.034 │ 10.331 │ 10.658 │ 11.284 │ 120.301 │ 80.088 │ 1.039 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 400. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 400 Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -652.4, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.876. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 15.35 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.37 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -652.592, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.681. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.895 (19) number of steps and depth of 3.52 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -652.279, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3737.594. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.1 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.535 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -652.692, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3737.473. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.52 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.475 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.143 │ 0.348 │ 0.024 │ -0.552 │ -0.082 │ 0.146 │ 0.362 │ 0.873 │ 211.032 │ 238.41 │ 1.01 │ │ σ │ 10.091 │ 0.284 │ 0.039 │ 9.571 │ 9.899 │ 10.073 │ 10.269 │ 10.693 │ 55.002 │ 534.63 │ 1.057 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -111.414, variance: 0.028 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -2255.928, variance: 0.204 Total number of jittering steps: 533. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.601, -0.018, 0.293, 0.659, 0.94]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.896, 3.988, 3.995, 3.998, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.204 │ 0.559 │ 0.04 │ -0.88 │ -0.169 │ 0.186 │ 0.559 │ 1.324 │ 184.205 │ 426.84 │ 1.023 │ │ σ │ 10.288 │ 0.529 │ 0.05 │ 9.143 │ 9.997 │ 10.307 │ 10.607 │ 11.263 │ 123.353 │ 93.784 │ 1.029 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -553.326, variance: 128.556 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1560.208, variance: 0.473 Total number of jittering steps: 651. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.594, -0.001, 0.389, 0.701, 0.945]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 4.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.956, 3.996, 3.998, 3.999, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.021 │ 0.066 │ 0.002 │ -0.052 │ -0.002 │ 0.023 │ 0.046 │ 0.09 │ 167.631 │ 456.364 │ 1.038 │ │ σ │ 1.076 │ 0.681 │ 0.039 │ 0.956 │ 0.989 │ 1.008 │ 1.031 │ 1.099 │ 14.676 │ 106.854 │ 1.187 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel SMC2Kernel Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 96.8%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -45.835, variance: 0.188 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -971.145, variance: 1.644 Total number of jittering steps: 93. Rejuvenations on average every 31.25 step, every 19.231 steps in first half, every 83.333 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.217, -0.093, 0.029, 0.249, 0.572]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.375, 3.75, 5.5, 8.5, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [2.984, 3.458, 3.66, 3.824, 3.992] for 4 chains. ┌────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ1 │ -0.696 │ 0.882 │ 0.215 │ -2.821 │ -1.092 │ -0.778 │ -0.028 │ 0.841 │ 23.115 │ 12.23 │ 1.312 │ │ μ2 │ 1.924 │ 0.065 │ 0.012 │ 1.816 │ 1.874 │ 1.908 │ 1.962 │ 2.083 │ 30.941 │ 52.577 │ 1.084 │ │ σ1 │ 1.889 │ 0.645 │ 0.181 │ 1.054 │ 1.485 │ 1.768 │ 2.044 │ 3.044 │ 7.806 │ 11.605 │ 1.452 │ │ σ2 │ 0.992 │ 0.069 │ 0.017 │ 0.874 │ 0.939 │ 0.996 │ 1.02 │ 1.15 │ 13.686 │ NaN │ 1.231 │ │ p1 │ 0.109 │ 0.036 │ 0.009 │ 0.053 │ 0.085 │ 0.111 │ 0.121 │ 0.189 │ 16.339 │ 18.177 │ 1.223 │ │ p2 │ 0.891 │ 0.036 │ 0.009 │ 0.811 │ 0.879 │ 0.889 │ 0.915 │ 0.947 │ 16.339 │ 56.762 │ 1.223 │ └────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel SMC2Kernel Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 98.2%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -281.856, variance: 0.212 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1560.447, variance: 2.922 Total number of jittering steps: 70. Rejuvenations on average every 55.556 step, every 35.714 steps in first half, every 125.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.343, -0.108, 0.617, 0.929, 0.946]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.4, 6.0, 10.0, 10.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.047, 3.387, 3.676, 3.874, 3.991] for 4 chains. ┌────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ1 │ -0.481 │ 0.142 │ 0.059 │ -0.679 │ -0.633 │ -0.445 │ -0.351 │ -0.225 │ 6.428 │ 17.865 │ 1.776 │ │ μ2 │ 0.796 │ 0.218 │ 0.083 │ 0.478 │ 0.609 │ 0.804 │ 0.967 │ 1.164 │ 7.283 │ 22.297 │ 1.524 │ │ σ1 │ 0.777 │ 0.075 │ 0.02 │ 0.687 │ 0.714 │ 0.78 │ 0.835 │ 0.905 │ 10.08 │ 19.35 │ 1.389 │ │ σ2 │ 0.757 │ 0.077 │ 0.028 │ 0.625 │ 0.72 │ 0.741 │ 0.795 │ 0.921 │ 6.228 │ 9.312 │ 1.777 │ │ p1 │ 0.599 │ 0.122 │ 0.049 │ 0.431 │ 0.474 │ 0.645 │ 0.716 │ 0.788 │ 6.971 │ 17.614 │ 1.645 │ │ p2 │ 0.401 │ 0.122 │ 0.049 │ 0.212 │ 0.284 │ 0.355 │ 0.526 │ 0.569 │ 6.971 │ 10.202 │ 1.645 │ └────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -191.383, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1126.935. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.812 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.52 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -191.484, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1126.896. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 16.876 (7) number of steps and depth of 3.486 (2). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -191.351, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1127.348. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 16.784 (7) number of steps and depth of 3.446 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -194.109, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1126.555. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.224 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.462 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.209 │ 0.721 │ 0.05 │ -1.161 │ -0.281 │ 0.207 │ 0.698 │ 1.591 │ 212.469 │ 554.496 │ 1.013 │ │ σ │ 10.351 │ 0.646 │ 0.055 │ 8.955 │ 9.98 │ 10.359 │ 10.747 │ 11.585 │ 154.01 │ 84.93 │ 1.033 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 400. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 400 Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1128.317, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1868.94. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 16.14 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.455 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1129.522, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1873.406. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 14.2 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.305 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1128.321, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1868.269. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 15.51 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.402 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1128.285, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1868.842. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 15.695 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.402 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.152 │ 0.491 │ 0.027 │ -0.776 │ -0.177 │ 0.169 │ 0.462 │ 1.108 │ 353.851 │ 416.429 │ 1.015 │ │ σ │ 10.104 │ 0.373 │ 0.029 │ 9.4 │ 9.853 │ 10.08 │ 10.347 │ 10.863 │ 190.712 │ 772.07 │ 1.027 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -193.287, variance: 0.111 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1128.993, variance: 0.646 Total number of jittering steps: 541. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.558, 0.03, 0.371, 0.664, 0.939]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.934, 3.994, 3.998, 3.999, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.154 │ 0.747 │ 0.043 │ -1.452 │ -0.309 │ 0.197 │ 0.668 │ 1.54 │ 307.26 │ 407.431 │ 1.026 │ │ σ │ 10.36 │ 0.67 │ 0.051 │ 8.771 │ 10.005 │ 10.378 │ 10.76 │ 11.636 │ 199.001 │ 98.323 │ 1.037 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -802.039, variance: 35301.894 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -774.329, variance: 2.253 Total number of jittering steps: 558. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.628, -0.016, 0.341, 0.664, 0.908]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.97, 3.997, 3.999, 3.999, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.023 │ 0.057 │ 0.003 │ -0.074 │ -0.013 │ 0.021 │ 0.057 │ 0.125 │ 252.679 │ 627.963 │ 1.026 │ │ σ │ 1.0 │ 0.291 │ 0.009 │ 0.909 │ 0.96 │ 0.984 │ 1.008 │ 1.069 │ 596.68 │ 399.207 │ 1.018 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel SMC2Kernel Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 98.6%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -82.632, variance: 21.676 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -486.137, variance: 1.118 Total number of jittering steps: 49. Rejuvenations on average every 71.429 step, every 41.667 steps in first half, every 250.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.283, -0.11, 0.148, 0.181, 0.228]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [5.0, 5.5, 6.0, 8.5, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.074, 3.5, 3.706, 3.868, 3.994] for 4 chains. ┌────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ1 │ -0.95 │ 1.292 │ 0.346 │ -3.774 │ -1.293 │ -0.809 │ -0.049 │ 0.468 │ 12.873 │ 21.982 │ 1.448 │ │ μ2 │ 1.926 │ 0.1 │ 0.029 │ 1.622 │ 1.896 │ 1.945 │ 1.98 │ 2.038 │ 14.934 │ 18.859 │ 1.437 │ │ σ1 │ 2.023 │ 0.987 │ 0.191 │ 0.994 │ 1.511 │ 1.759 │ 2.103 │ 5.885 │ 30.544 │ 38.903 │ 1.434 │ │ σ2 │ 0.996 │ 0.075 │ 0.011 │ 0.867 │ 0.952 │ 0.982 │ 1.01 │ 1.144 │ 39.974 │ 36.13 │ 1.391 │ │ p1 │ 0.103 │ 0.045 │ 0.015 │ 0.016 │ 0.063 │ 0.111 │ 0.128 │ 0.188 │ 10.048 │ 38.32 │ 1.356 │ │ p2 │ 0.897 │ 0.045 │ 0.015 │ 0.812 │ 0.872 │ 0.889 │ 0.937 │ 0.984 │ 10.048 │ 14.412 │ 1.356 │ └────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel SMC2Kernel Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 98.4%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -486.785, variance: 1.106 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -786.107, variance: 3.216 Total number of jittering steps: 80. Rejuvenations on average every 62.5 step, every 35.714 steps in first half, every 250.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [0.108, 0.18, 0.743, 0.892, 0.995]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [10.0, 10.0, 10.0, 10.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.037, 3.42, 3.7, 3.936, 3.995] for 4 chains. ┌────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ1 │ -0.147 │ 0.192 │ 0.045 │ -0.69 │ -0.186 │ -0.127 │ -0.081 │ 0.343 │ 11.985 │ 14.395 │ 1.239 │ │ μ2 │ 1.303 │ 0.524 │ 0.22 │ 0.439 │ 0.891 │ 1.61 │ 1.749 │ 1.98 │ 7.133 │ NaN │ 1.67 │ │ σ1 │ 1.043 │ 0.306 │ 0.055 │ 0.755 │ 0.917 │ 0.943 │ 1.009 │ 2.103 │ 32.222 │ 17.017 │ 1.563 │ │ σ2 │ 1.155 │ 0.189 │ 0.041 │ 0.781 │ 0.982 │ 1.248 │ 1.268 │ 1.442 │ 19.344 │ 10.675 │ 1.179 │ │ p1 │ 0.715 │ 0.27 │ 0.086 │ 0.111 │ 0.692 │ 0.799 │ 0.922 │ 0.969 │ 7.477 │ NaN │ 1.493 │ │ p2 │ 0.285 │ 0.27 │ 0.086 │ 0.031 │ 0.078 │ 0.201 │ 0.308 │ 0.889 │ 7.477 │ 9.362 │ 1.493 │ └────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -191.383, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1563.149. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 16.924 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.452 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -192.231, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1561.608. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 13.96 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.26 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -196.016, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1562.279. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 15.8 (23) number of steps and depth of 3.38 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -191.59, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1561.289. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 14.896 (23) number of steps and depth of 3.316 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.229 │ 0.697 │ 0.033 │ -1.152 │ -0.198 │ 0.247 │ 0.65 │ 1.6 │ 444.527 │ 496.32 │ 1.044 │ │ σ │ 10.337 │ 0.633 │ 0.055 │ 8.859 │ 10.0 │ 10.338 │ 10.713 │ 11.568 │ 156.273 │ 86.143 │ 1.054 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 400. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 400 Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1564.529, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3105.465. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 14.88 (7) number of steps and depth of 3.392 (2). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1564.307, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3106.458. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 14.515 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.332 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1564.512, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3107.165. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 15.745 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.42 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1564.812, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3105.582. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 14.33 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.332 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.146 │ 0.427 │ 0.026 │ -0.762 │ -0.116 │ 0.148 │ 0.432 │ 0.97 │ 283.49 │ 316.048 │ 1.017 │ │ σ │ 10.086 │ 0.296 │ 0.026 │ 9.557 │ 9.889 │ 10.074 │ 10.281 │ 10.709 │ 145.866 │ 495.055 │ 1.038 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -193.907, variance: 0.947 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1564.105, variance: 0.929 Total number of jittering steps: 529. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.624, -0.005, 0.317, 0.613, 0.929]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.933, 3.994, 3.997, 3.999, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.175 │ 0.685 │ 0.038 │ -1.339 │ -0.246 │ 0.207 │ 0.629 │ 1.398 │ 366.521 │ 301.923 │ 1.031 │ │ σ │ 10.319 │ 0.634 │ 0.049 │ 8.977 │ 9.974 │ 10.34 │ 10.689 │ 11.57 │ 176.398 │ 88.909 │ 1.047 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1274.41, variance: 8167.121 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1361.256, variance: 0.883 Total number of jittering steps: 629. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.692, 0.042, 0.413, 0.73, 0.96]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.948, 3.996, 3.998, 3.999, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ -0.036 │ 0.05 │ 0.002 │ -0.121 │ -0.063 │ -0.035 │ -0.008 │ 0.041 │ 199.72 │ 640.749 │ 1.04 │ │ σ │ 1.045 │ 0.364 │ 0.012 │ 0.966 │ 1.003 │ 1.023 │ 1.043 │ 1.094 │ 214.22 │ 371.196 │ 1.026 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel SMC2Kernel Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 98.2%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -82.927, variance: 14.317 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -673.735, variance: 5.958 Total number of jittering steps: 55. Rejuvenations on average every 55.556 step, every 35.714 steps in first half, every 125.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.078, 0.012, 0.103, 0.235, 0.835]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [2.0, 3.0, 5.0, 10.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.031, 3.37, 3.716, 3.888, 3.996] for 4 chains. ┌────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ1 │ -1.637 │ 1.496 │ 0.464 │ -6.448 │ -2.345 │ -1.586 │ -0.46 │ 0.623 │ 9.86 │ 25.978 │ 1.358 │ │ μ2 │ 1.913 │ 0.109 │ 0.03 │ 1.644 │ 1.829 │ 1.929 │ 2.001 │ 2.076 │ 12.256 │ 42.188 │ 1.32 │ │ σ1 │ 2.069 │ 1.159 │ 0.244 │ 0.972 │ 1.417 │ 1.718 │ 2.101 │ 5.849 │ 25.203 │ 33.702 │ 1.142 │ │ σ2 │ 1.019 │ 0.079 │ 0.013 │ 0.916 │ 0.968 │ 1.013 │ 1.044 │ 1.258 │ 29.94 │ 22.405 │ 1.137 │ │ p1 │ 0.084 │ 0.039 │ 0.012 │ 0.013 │ 0.059 │ 0.087 │ 0.116 │ 0.156 │ 12.647 │ 17.486 │ 1.355 │ │ p2 │ 0.916 │ 0.039 │ 0.012 │ 0.844 │ 0.884 │ 0.913 │ 0.941 │ 0.987 │ 12.647 │ 22.574 │ 1.355 │ └────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel SMC2Kernel Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 98.6%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -675.926, variance: 6.08 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1342.585, variance: 3.101 Total number of jittering steps: 59. Rejuvenations on average every 71.429 step, every 35.714 steps in first half, every Inf steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [0.265, 0.477, 0.8, 0.898, 0.997]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [2.05, 9.0, 10.0, 10.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.081, 3.427, 3.686, 3.821, 3.985] for 4 chains. ┌────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ1 │ -0.138 │ 0.312 │ 0.064 │ -0.547 │ -0.144 │ -0.058 │ -0.042 │ 0.05 │ 5.817 │ NaN │ 1.855 │ │ μ2 │ 1.571 │ 0.169 │ 0.049 │ 1.457 │ 1.471 │ 1.485 │ 1.534 │ 2.066 │ 5.611 │ 4.208 │ 1.926 │ │ σ1 │ 1.023 │ 0.215 │ 0.037 │ 0.842 │ 0.954 │ 0.96 │ 0.966 │ 1.912 │ 12.161 │ 10.779 │ 1.839 │ │ σ2 │ 1.243 │ 0.129 │ 0.05 │ 0.995 │ 1.264 │ 1.296 │ 1.318 │ 1.37 │ 6.035 │ NaN │ 1.789 │ │ p1 │ 0.854 │ 0.261 │ 0.058 │ 0.092 │ 0.944 │ 0.957 │ 0.971 │ 0.977 │ 5.744 │ NaN │ 1.882 │ │ p2 │ 0.146 │ 0.261 │ 0.058 │ 0.023 │ 0.029 │ 0.043 │ 0.056 │ 0.908 │ 5.744 │ 4.208 │ 1.882 │ └────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ NaN │ 8.398 │ NaN │ └───┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ ┌───┬──────┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ NaN │ 8.398 │ NaN │ └───┴──────┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ σ │ 10.062 │ 0.137 │ 0.034 │ 9.757 │ 9.994 │ 10.06 │ 10.144 │ 10.273 │ 13.991 │ 78.072 │ 1.217 │ │ μ │ 0.289 │ 0.001 │ 0.0 │ 0.288 │ 0.289 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.291 │ 13.991 │ 10.965 │ 1.217 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ NaN │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ NaN │ 8.398 │ NaN │ └───┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ ┌───┬──────┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ NaN │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ NaN │ 8.398 │ NaN │ └───┴──────┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ σ │ 10.016 │ 0.136 │ 0.027 │ 9.799 │ 9.935 │ 10.0 │ 10.148 │ 10.28 │ 34.355 │ 43.411 │ 1.193 │ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.001 │ 0.0 │ 0.288 │ 0.289 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.291 │ 34.355 │ 69.072 │ 1.193 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 6.48 │ 8.398 │ 1.778 │ └───┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ ┌───┬──────┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 6.48 │ 8.398 │ 1.778 │ └───┴──────┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ σ │ 9.993 │ 0.142 │ 0.038 │ 9.776 │ 9.855 │ 10.004 │ 10.105 │ 10.264 │ 13.357 │ 29.264 │ 1.25 │ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.001 │ 0.0 │ 0.288 │ 0.289 │ 0.29 │ 0.291 │ 0.291 │ 13.418 │ 34.782 │ 1.25 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 6.069 │ 8.398 │ 1.931 │ └───┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ ┌───┬──────┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 6.069 │ 8.398 │ 1.931 │ └───┴──────┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ σ │ 9.987 │ 0.367 │ 0.145 │ 9.416 │ 9.737 │ 9.964 │ 10.245 │ 10.514 │ 6.732 │ 5.841 │ 1.737 │ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.002 │ 0.001 │ 0.287 │ 0.289 │ 0.29 │ 0.291 │ 0.293 │ 7.252 │ 43.381 │ 1.638 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ NaN │ 8.398 │ NaN │ └───┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ ┌───┬──────┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ NaN │ 8.398 │ NaN │ └───┴──────┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ σ │ 10.015 │ 0.226 │ 0.031 │ 9.64 │ 9.815 │ 10.028 │ 10.193 │ 10.391 │ 53.704 │ 53.689 │ 1.047 │ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.001 │ 0.0 │ 0.288 │ 0.289 │ 0.29 │ 0.291 │ 0.292 │ 53.704 │ 53.689 │ 1.047 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ NaN │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ NaN │ 8.398 │ NaN │ └───┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ ┌───┬──────┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ NaN │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ NaN │ 8.398 │ NaN │ └───┴──────┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ σ │ 10.033 │ 0.229 │ 0.053 │ 9.65 │ 9.821 │ 10.062 │ 10.208 │ 10.409 │ 22.732 │ 19.942 │ 1.157 │ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.001 │ 0.0 │ 0.288 │ 0.289 │ 0.289 │ 0.291 │ 0.292 │ 22.732 │ 59.186 │ 1.157 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 6.587 │ 71.244 │ 1.746 │ └───┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ ┌───┬──────┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 6.587 │ 71.244 │ 1.746 │ └───┴──────┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ σ │ 9.962 │ 0.222 │ 0.026 │ 9.609 │ 9.832 │ 9.973 │ 10.086 │ 10.392 │ 78.197 │ 16.919 │ 1.17 │ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.001 │ 0.0 │ 0.288 │ 0.289 │ 0.29 │ 0.291 │ 0.292 │ 76.405 │ 45.758 │ 1.172 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 6.401 │ 8.398 │ 1.806 │ └───┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ ┌───┬──────┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 6.401 │ 8.398 │ 1.806 │ └───┴──────┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ σ │ 10.008 │ 0.215 │ 0.043 │ 9.677 │ 9.845 │ 9.993 │ 10.193 │ 10.379 │ 27.95 │ 20.393 │ 1.114 │ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.001 │ 0.0 │ 0.288 │ 0.289 │ 0.29 │ 0.291 │ 0.292 │ 27.764 │ 79.222 │ 1.114 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 10000. Sampling iterations set to 900 Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 10. Sampling iterations set to 10 Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Test Summary: | Pass Total Time All tests | 214 214 17m06.3s Testing Baytes tests passed Testing completed after 1052.77s PkgEval succeeded after 1268.17s