Package evaluation to test Baytes on Julia 1.14.0-DEV.1871 (50d44f5be7*) started at 2026-03-08T22:32:55.258 ################################################################################ # Set-up # Installing PkgEval dependencies (TestEnv)... Activating project at `~/.julia/environments/v1.14` Set-up completed after 12.93s ################################################################################ # Installation # Installing Baytes... Resolving package versions... Updating `~/.julia/environments/v1.14/Project.toml` [72ddfcfc] + Baytes v0.3.16 Updating `~/.julia/environments/v1.14/Manifest.toml` [621f4979] + AbstractFFTs v1.5.0 [7d9f7c33] + Accessors v0.1.43 [79e6a3ab] + Adapt v4.5.0 [66dad0bd] + AliasTables v1.1.3 [dce04be8] + ArgCheck v2.5.0 [72ddfcfc] + Baytes v0.3.16 [e5a8efeb] + BaytesCore v0.2.0 [12a76ff9] + BaytesDiff v0.3.1 [26b78818] + BaytesFilters v0.3.6 [8e6e46a0] + BaytesMCMC v0.3.4 [c78c806d] + BaytesOptim v0.1.9 [c4a8eb41] + BaytesPMCMC v0.3.3 [2428e3a5] + BaytesSMC v0.3.6 ⌅ [76274a88] + Bijectors v0.13.18 [082447d4] + ChainRules v1.73.0 [d360d2e6] + ChainRulesCore v1.26.0 [9e997f8a] + ChangesOfVariables v0.1.10 [38540f10] + CommonSolve v0.2.6 [34da2185] + Compat v4.18.1 [a33af91c] + CompositionsBase v0.1.2 [187b0558] + ConstructionBase v1.6.0 [a8cc5b0e] + Crayons v4.1.1 [9a962f9c] + DataAPI v1.16.0 [864edb3b] + DataStructures v0.19.3 [e2d170a0] + DataValueInterfaces v1.0.0 [31c24e10] + Distributions v0.25.123 [ffbed154] + DocStringExtensions v0.9.5 [fdbdab4c] + ElasticArrays v1.2.12 [5789e2e9] + FileIO v1.18.0 [1a297f60] + FillArrays v1.16.0 ⌅ [d9f16b24] + Functors v0.4.12 [46192b85] + GPUArraysCore v0.2.0 [34004b35] + HypergeometricFunctions v0.3.28 [3587e190] + InverseFunctions v0.1.17 [92d709cd] + IrrationalConstants v0.2.6 [82899510] + IteratorInterfaceExtensions v1.0.0 ⌅ [033835bb] + JLD2 v0.4.55 [692b3bcd] + JLLWrappers v1.7.1 [b964fa9f] + LaTeXStrings v1.4.0 [2ab3a3ac] + LogExpFunctions v0.3.29 [be115224] + MCMCDiagnosticTools v0.3.16 [e80e1ace] + MLJModelInterface v1.12.1 [1914dd2f] + MacroTools v0.5.16 [dbb5928d] + MappedArrays v0.4.3 [e1d29d7a] + Missings v1.2.0 [44c54197] + ModelWrappers v0.5.6 [bac558e1] + OrderedCollections v1.8.1 [90014a1f] + PDMats v0.11.37 [aea7be01] + PrecompileTools v1.3.3 [21216c6a] + Preferences v1.5.2 ⌅ [08abe8d2] + PrettyTables v2.4.0 [92933f4c] + ProgressMeter v1.11.0 [43287f4e] + PtrArrays v1.4.0 [1fd47b50] + QuadGK v2.11.2 [c1ae055f] + RealDot v0.1.0 [189a3867] + Reexport v1.2.2 [ae029012] + Requires v1.3.1 [79098fc4] + Rmath v0.9.0 [f2b01f46] + Roots v2.2.13 [30f210dd] + ScientificTypesBase v3.1.0 [ce78b400] + SimpleUnPack v1.1.0 [a2af1166] + SortingAlgorithms v1.2.2 [dc90abb0] + SparseInverseSubset v0.1.2 [276daf66] + SpecialFunctions v2.7.1 [64bff920] + StatisticalTraits v3.5.0 [10745b16] + Statistics v1.11.1 [82ae8749] + StatsAPI v1.8.0 [2913bbd2] + StatsBase v0.34.10 [4c63d2b9] + StatsFuns v1.5.2 [892a3eda] + StringManipulation v0.4.4 [09ab397b] + StructArrays v0.7.2 [3783bdb8] + TableTraits v1.0.1 [bd369af6] + Tables v1.12.1 [3bb67fe8] + TranscodingStreams v0.11.3 [efe28fd5] + OpenSpecFun_jll v0.5.6+0 [f50d1b31] + Rmath_jll v0.5.1+0 [0dad84c5] + ArgTools v1.1.2 [56f22d72] + Artifacts v1.11.0 [2a0f44e3] + Base64 v1.11.0 [ade2ca70] + Dates v1.11.0 [8ba89e20] + Distributed v1.11.0 [f43a241f] + Downloads v1.7.0 [7b1f6079] + FileWatching v1.11.0 [b77e0a4c] + InteractiveUtils v1.11.0 [ac6e5ff7] + JuliaSyntaxHighlighting v1.13.0 [b27032c2] + LibCURL v1.0.0 [76f85450] + LibGit2 v1.11.0 [8f399da3] + Libdl v1.11.0 [37e2e46d] + LinearAlgebra v1.13.0 [56ddb016] + Logging v1.11.0 [d6f4376e] + Markdown v1.11.0 [a63ad114] + Mmap v1.11.0 [ca575930] + NetworkOptions v1.3.0 [44cfe95a] + Pkg v1.14.0 [de0858da] + Printf v1.11.0 [3fa0cd96] + REPL v1.11.0 [9a3f8284] + Random v1.11.0 [ea8e919c] + SHA v1.0.0 [9e88b42a] + Serialization v1.11.0 [6462fe0b] + Sockets v1.11.0 [2f01184e] + SparseArrays v1.13.0 [f489334b] + StyledStrings v1.13.0 [4607b0f0] + SuiteSparse [fa267f1f] + TOML v1.0.3 [a4e569a6] + Tar v1.10.0 [cf7118a7] + UUIDs v1.11.0 [4ec0a83e] + Unicode v1.11.0 [e66e0078] + CompilerSupportLibraries_jll v1.3.0+1 [deac9b47] + LibCURL_jll v8.18.0+0 [e37daf67] + LibGit2_jll v1.9.2+0 [29816b5a] + LibSSH2_jll v1.11.3+1 [14a3606d] + MozillaCACerts_jll v2025.12.2 [4536629a] + OpenBLAS_jll v0.3.30+0 [05823500] + OpenLibm_jll v0.8.7+0 [458c3c95] + OpenSSL_jll v3.5.5+0 [efcefdf7] + PCRE2_jll v10.47.0+0 [bea87d4a] + SuiteSparse_jll v7.10.1+0 [83775a58] + Zlib_jll v1.3.2+0 [3161d3a3] + Zstd_jll v1.5.7+1 [8e850b90] + libblastrampoline_jll v5.15.0+0 [8e850ede] + nghttp2_jll v1.68.0+1 [3f19e933] + p7zip_jll v17.7.0+0 Info Packages marked with ⌅ have new versions available but compatibility constraints restrict them from upgrading. To see why use `status --outdated -m` Installation completed after 5.76s ################################################################################ # Precompilation # Precompiling PkgEval dependencies... Precompiling package dependencies... Precompiling packages... 14065.5 ms ✓ Baytes 1 dependency successfully precompiled in 18 seconds. 178 already precompiled. Precompilation completed after 40.14s ################################################################################ # Testing # Testing Baytes Status `/tmp/jl_4wom6l/Project.toml` [dce04be8] ArgCheck v2.5.0 [72ddfcfc] Baytes v0.3.16 [e5a8efeb] BaytesCore v0.2.0 [12a76ff9] BaytesDiff v0.3.1 [26b78818] BaytesFilters v0.3.6 [8e6e46a0] BaytesMCMC v0.3.4 [c78c806d] BaytesOptim v0.1.9 [c4a8eb41] BaytesPMCMC v0.3.3 [2428e3a5] BaytesSMC v0.3.6 [31c24e10] Distributions v0.25.123 [ffbed154] DocStringExtensions v0.9.5 ⌃ [f6369f11] ForwardDiff v0.10.39 ⌅ [033835bb] JLD2 v0.4.55 [be115224] MCMCDiagnosticTools v0.3.16 [44c54197] ModelWrappers v0.5.6 ⌅ [d41bc354] NLSolversBase v7.10.0 ⌃ [429524aa] Optim v1.13.3 ⌅ [08abe8d2] PrettyTables v2.4.0 [92933f4c] ProgressMeter v1.11.0 [ce78b400] SimpleUnPack v1.1.0 [10745b16] Statistics v1.11.1 [ade2ca70] Dates v1.11.0 [9a3f8284] Random v1.11.0 [8dfed614] Test v1.11.0 Status `/tmp/jl_4wom6l/Manifest.toml` [47edcb42] ADTypes v1.21.0 [621f4979] AbstractFFTs v1.5.0 [7d9f7c33] Accessors v0.1.43 [79e6a3ab] Adapt v4.5.0 [66dad0bd] AliasTables v1.1.3 [dce04be8] ArgCheck v2.5.0 [4fba245c] ArrayInterface v7.23.0 [72ddfcfc] Baytes v0.3.16 [e5a8efeb] BaytesCore v0.2.0 [12a76ff9] BaytesDiff v0.3.1 [26b78818] BaytesFilters v0.3.6 [8e6e46a0] BaytesMCMC v0.3.4 [c78c806d] BaytesOptim v0.1.9 [c4a8eb41] BaytesPMCMC v0.3.3 [2428e3a5] BaytesSMC v0.3.6 ⌅ [76274a88] Bijectors v0.13.18 [082447d4] ChainRules v1.73.0 [d360d2e6] ChainRulesCore v1.26.0 [9e997f8a] ChangesOfVariables v0.1.10 [38540f10] CommonSolve v0.2.6 [bbf7d656] CommonSubexpressions v0.3.1 [34da2185] Compat v4.18.1 [a33af91c] CompositionsBase v0.1.2 [187b0558] ConstructionBase v1.6.0 [a8cc5b0e] Crayons v4.1.1 [9a962f9c] DataAPI v1.16.0 [864edb3b] DataStructures v0.19.3 [e2d170a0] DataValueInterfaces v1.0.0 [163ba53b] DiffResults v1.1.0 [b552c78f] DiffRules v1.15.1 [a0c0ee7d] DifferentiationInterface v0.7.16 [31c24e10] Distributions v0.25.123 [ffbed154] DocStringExtensions v0.9.5 [fdbdab4c] ElasticArrays v1.2.12 [4e289a0a] EnumX v1.0.7 [5789e2e9] FileIO v1.18.0 [1a297f60] FillArrays v1.16.0 [6a86dc24] FiniteDiff v2.29.0 ⌃ [f6369f11] ForwardDiff v0.10.39 ⌅ [d9f16b24] Functors v0.4.12 [46192b85] GPUArraysCore v0.2.0 [34004b35] HypergeometricFunctions v0.3.28 [3587e190] InverseFunctions v0.1.17 [92d709cd] IrrationalConstants v0.2.6 [82899510] IteratorInterfaceExtensions v1.0.0 ⌅ [033835bb] JLD2 v0.4.55 [692b3bcd] JLLWrappers v1.7.1 [b964fa9f] LaTeXStrings v1.4.0 ⌃ [d3d80556] LineSearches v7.5.1 [2ab3a3ac] LogExpFunctions v0.3.29 [be115224] MCMCDiagnosticTools v0.3.16 [e80e1ace] MLJModelInterface v1.12.1 [1914dd2f] MacroTools v0.5.16 [dbb5928d] MappedArrays v0.4.3 [e1d29d7a] Missings v1.2.0 [44c54197] ModelWrappers v0.5.6 ⌅ [d41bc354] NLSolversBase v7.10.0 [77ba4419] NaNMath v1.1.3 ⌃ [429524aa] Optim v1.13.3 [bac558e1] OrderedCollections v1.8.1 [90014a1f] PDMats v0.11.37 [85a6dd25] PositiveFactorizations v0.2.4 [aea7be01] PrecompileTools v1.3.3 [21216c6a] Preferences v1.5.2 ⌅ [08abe8d2] PrettyTables v2.4.0 [92933f4c] ProgressMeter v1.11.0 [43287f4e] PtrArrays v1.4.0 [1fd47b50] QuadGK v2.11.2 [c1ae055f] RealDot v0.1.0 [189a3867] Reexport v1.2.2 [ae029012] Requires v1.3.1 [79098fc4] Rmath v0.9.0 [f2b01f46] Roots v2.2.13 [30f210dd] ScientificTypesBase v3.1.0 [efcf1570] Setfield v1.1.2 [ce78b400] SimpleUnPack v1.1.0 [a2af1166] SortingAlgorithms v1.2.2 [dc90abb0] SparseInverseSubset v0.1.2 [276daf66] SpecialFunctions v2.7.1 [1e83bf80] StaticArraysCore v1.4.4 [64bff920] StatisticalTraits v3.5.0 [10745b16] Statistics v1.11.1 [82ae8749] StatsAPI v1.8.0 [2913bbd2] StatsBase v0.34.10 [4c63d2b9] StatsFuns v1.5.2 [892a3eda] StringManipulation v0.4.4 [09ab397b] StructArrays v0.7.2 [3783bdb8] TableTraits v1.0.1 [bd369af6] Tables v1.12.1 [3bb67fe8] TranscodingStreams v0.11.3 [efe28fd5] OpenSpecFun_jll v0.5.6+0 [f50d1b31] Rmath_jll v0.5.1+0 [0dad84c5] ArgTools v1.1.2 [56f22d72] Artifacts v1.11.0 [2a0f44e3] Base64 v1.11.0 [ade2ca70] Dates v1.11.0 [8ba89e20] Distributed v1.11.0 [f43a241f] Downloads v1.7.0 [7b1f6079] FileWatching v1.11.0 [9fa8497b] Future v1.11.0 [b77e0a4c] InteractiveUtils v1.11.0 [ac6e5ff7] JuliaSyntaxHighlighting v1.13.0 [b27032c2] LibCURL v1.0.0 [76f85450] LibGit2 v1.11.0 [8f399da3] Libdl v1.11.0 [37e2e46d] LinearAlgebra v1.13.0 [56ddb016] Logging v1.11.0 [d6f4376e] Markdown v1.11.0 [a63ad114] Mmap v1.11.0 [ca575930] NetworkOptions v1.3.0 [44cfe95a] Pkg v1.14.0 [de0858da] Printf v1.11.0 [3fa0cd96] REPL v1.11.0 [9a3f8284] Random v1.11.0 [ea8e919c] SHA v1.0.0 [9e88b42a] Serialization v1.11.0 [6462fe0b] Sockets v1.11.0 [2f01184e] SparseArrays v1.13.0 [f489334b] StyledStrings v1.13.0 [4607b0f0] SuiteSparse [fa267f1f] TOML v1.0.3 [a4e569a6] Tar v1.10.0 [8dfed614] Test v1.11.0 [cf7118a7] UUIDs v1.11.0 [4ec0a83e] Unicode v1.11.0 [e66e0078] CompilerSupportLibraries_jll v1.3.0+1 [deac9b47] LibCURL_jll v8.18.0+0 [e37daf67] LibGit2_jll v1.9.2+0 [29816b5a] LibSSH2_jll v1.11.3+1 [14a3606d] MozillaCACerts_jll v2025.12.2 [4536629a] OpenBLAS_jll v0.3.30+0 [05823500] OpenLibm_jll v0.8.7+0 [458c3c95] OpenSSL_jll v3.5.5+0 [efcefdf7] PCRE2_jll v10.47.0+0 [bea87d4a] SuiteSparse_jll v7.10.1+0 [83775a58] Zlib_jll v1.3.2+0 [3161d3a3] Zstd_jll v1.5.7+1 [8e850b90] libblastrampoline_jll v5.15.0+0 [8e850ede] nghttp2_jll v1.68.0+1 [3f19e933] p7zip_jll v17.7.0+0 Info Packages marked with ⌃ and ⌅ have new versions available. Those with ⌃ may be upgradable, but those with ⌅ are restricted by compatibility constraints from upgrading. Testing Running tests... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.146 │ 0.253 │ 0.078 │ -0.286 │ -0.033 │ 0.156 │ 0.338 │ 0.631 │ 11.749 │ 10.01 │ 1.289 │ │ σ │ 9.992 │ 0.15 │ 0.025 │ 9.706 │ 9.88 │ 10.0 │ 10.078 │ 10.339 │ 27.676 │ 82.581 │ 1.131 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ ┌───┬──────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.146 │ 0.253 │ 0.078 │ -0.286 │ -0.033 │ 0.156 │ 0.338 │ 0.631 │ 11.749 │ 10.01 │ 1.289 │ │ σ │ 10.0 │ 9.992 │ 0.15 │ 0.025 │ 9.706 │ 9.88 │ 10.0 │ 10.078 │ 10.339 │ 27.676 │ 82.581 │ 1.131 │ └───┴──────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.054 │ 0.259 │ 0.051 │ -0.182 │ -0.079 │ 0.0 │ 0.035 │ 0.775 │ 21.653 │ 12.644 │ 1.414 │ │ σ │ 10.019 │ 0.156 │ 0.016 │ 9.595 │ 9.959 │ 10.0 │ 10.101 │ 10.316 │ 61.514 │ 92.079 │ 1.298 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ ┌───┬──────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.054 │ 0.259 │ 0.051 │ -0.182 │ -0.079 │ 0.0 │ 0.035 │ 0.775 │ 21.653 │ 12.644 │ 1.414 │ │ σ │ 10.0 │ 10.019 │ 0.156 │ 0.016 │ 9.595 │ 9.959 │ 10.0 │ 10.101 │ 10.316 │ 61.514 │ 92.079 │ 1.298 │ └───┴──────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ -0.02 │ 0.208 │ 0.063 │ -0.309 │ -0.191 │ -0.002 │ 0.072 │ 0.542 │ 8.883 │ 39.991 │ 1.434 │ │ σ │ 9.944 │ 0.241 │ 0.071 │ 9.607 │ 9.807 │ 9.955 │ 10.057 │ 10.564 │ 12.216 │ 7.426 │ 1.255 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ ┌───┬──────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ -0.02 │ 0.208 │ 0.063 │ -0.309 │ -0.191 │ -0.002 │ 0.072 │ 0.542 │ 8.883 │ 39.991 │ 1.434 │ │ σ │ 10.0 │ 9.944 │ 0.241 │ 0.071 │ 9.607 │ 9.807 │ 9.955 │ 10.057 │ 10.564 │ 12.216 │ 7.426 │ 1.255 │ └───┴──────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.159 │ 0.313 │ 0.121 │ -0.189 │ -0.089 │ -0.009 │ 0.421 │ 0.702 │ 7.311 │ 9.104 │ 1.611 │ │ σ │ 9.884 │ 0.224 │ 0.053 │ 9.634 │ 9.665 │ 9.896 │ 10.013 │ 10.386 │ 18.469 │ 8.508 │ 1.156 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ ┌───┬──────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.159 │ 0.313 │ 0.121 │ -0.189 │ -0.089 │ -0.009 │ 0.421 │ 0.702 │ 7.311 │ 9.104 │ 1.611 │ │ σ │ 10.0 │ 9.884 │ 0.224 │ 0.053 │ 9.634 │ 9.665 │ 9.896 │ 10.013 │ 10.386 │ 18.469 │ 8.508 │ 1.156 │ └───┴──────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.073 │ 0.331 │ 0.108 │ -0.453 │ -0.138 │ 0.051 │ 0.305 │ 0.781 │ 9.046 │ 24.321 │ 1.434 │ │ σ │ 9.988 │ 0.232 │ 0.034 │ 9.568 │ 9.782 │ 10.0 │ 10.144 │ 10.502 │ 50.164 │ 102.886 │ 1.066 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ ┌───┬──────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.073 │ 0.331 │ 0.108 │ -0.453 │ -0.138 │ 0.051 │ 0.305 │ 0.781 │ 9.046 │ 24.321 │ 1.434 │ │ σ │ 10.0 │ 9.988 │ 0.232 │ 0.034 │ 9.568 │ 9.782 │ 10.0 │ 10.144 │ 10.502 │ 50.164 │ 102.886 │ 1.066 │ └───┴──────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.059 │ 0.439 │ 0.137 │ -0.533 │ -0.312 │ 0.017 │ 0.28 │ 1.099 │ 11.291 │ 26.6 │ 1.311 │ │ σ │ 10.021 │ 0.257 │ 0.027 │ 9.625 │ 9.792 │ 10.02 │ 10.229 │ 10.518 │ 86.933 │ 53.323 │ 1.048 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ ┌───┬──────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.059 │ 0.439 │ 0.137 │ -0.533 │ -0.312 │ 0.017 │ 0.28 │ 1.099 │ 11.291 │ 26.6 │ 1.311 │ │ σ │ 10.0 │ 10.021 │ 0.257 │ 0.027 │ 9.625 │ 9.792 │ 10.02 │ 10.229 │ 10.518 │ 86.933 │ 53.323 │ 1.048 │ └───┴──────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.035 │ 0.296 │ 0.072 │ -0.357 │ -0.158 │ -0.057 │ 0.165 │ 0.884 │ 17.458 │ 22.054 │ 1.248 │ │ σ │ 10.01 │ 0.292 │ 0.051 │ 9.517 │ 9.826 │ 9.978 │ 10.239 │ 10.576 │ 34.269 │ 18.801 │ 1.101 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ ┌───┬──────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.035 │ 0.296 │ 0.072 │ -0.357 │ -0.158 │ -0.057 │ 0.165 │ 0.884 │ 17.458 │ 22.054 │ 1.248 │ │ σ │ 10.0 │ 10.01 │ 0.292 │ 0.051 │ 9.517 │ 9.826 │ 9.978 │ 10.239 │ 10.576 │ 34.269 │ 18.801 │ 1.101 │ └───┴──────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.201 │ 0.322 │ 0.104 │ -0.265 │ -0.045 │ 0.135 │ 0.442 │ 0.864 │ 9.178 │ 25.627 │ 1.405 │ │ σ │ 10.036 │ 0.286 │ 0.031 │ 9.527 │ 9.838 │ 10.006 │ 10.247 │ 10.631 │ 93.295 │ 39.558 │ 1.204 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ ┌───┬──────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.201 │ 0.322 │ 0.104 │ -0.265 │ -0.045 │ 0.135 │ 0.442 │ 0.864 │ 9.178 │ 25.627 │ 1.405 │ │ σ │ 10.0 │ 10.036 │ 0.286 │ 0.031 │ 9.527 │ 9.838 │ 10.006 │ 10.247 │ 10.631 │ 93.295 │ 39.558 │ 1.204 │ └───┴──────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1080.002, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3737.283. NUTS sampler had 37 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 22.642 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.45 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 37, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.252 │ 0.313 │ 0.04 │ -0.293 │ 0.008 │ 0.252 │ 0.458 │ 0.949 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ │ σ │ 10.027 │ 0.211 │ 0.013 │ 9.635 │ 9.891 │ 10.019 │ 10.202 │ 10.438 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1080.486, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3734.96. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 20.86 (27) number of steps and depth of 3.78 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.328 │ 0.371 │ 0.073 │ -0.268 │ 0.083 │ 0.239 │ 0.61 │ 1.055 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ │ σ │ 9.98 │ 0.224 │ 0.029 │ 9.558 │ 9.839 │ 9.96 │ 10.144 │ 10.375 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1079.823, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3738.829. NUTS sampler had 29 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 18.946 (7) number of steps and depth of 3.438 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 29, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1080.344, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3738.273. NUTS sampler had 28 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 19.216 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.42 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 28, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.237 │ 0.29 │ 0.037 │ -0.318 │ 0.034 │ 0.242 │ 0.431 │ 0.84 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ │ σ │ 10.023 │ 0.209 │ 0.011 │ 9.603 │ 9.876 │ 10.037 │ 10.164 │ 10.436 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1080.344, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.25. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 23.02 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.92 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1080.031, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.152. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 20.72 (7) number of steps and depth of 3.71 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.27 │ 0.303 │ 0.035 │ -0.273 │ 0.053 │ 0.259 │ 0.471 │ 0.814 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ │ σ │ 10.035 │ 0.278 │ 0.026 │ 9.499 │ 9.841 │ 10.044 │ 10.205 │ 10.609 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.001, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.56. NUTS sampler had 172 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 48.126 (7) number of steps and depth of 2.5 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 34, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 138, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.004, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.404. NUTS sampler had 75 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 106.748 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.496 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 25, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 50, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.001, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.638. NUTS sampler had 211 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 24.924 (1) number of steps and depth of 2.004 (0). Divergences in: Warmup: 36, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 175, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1.827, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.311. NUTS sampler had 69 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 96.32 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.736 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 19, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 50, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬─────────┬─────────┬─────────┬──────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼─────────┼─────────┼─────────┼──────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ -15.509 │ 69.232 │ 27.937 │ -174.358 │ -0.012 │ 0.349 │ 2.852 │ 52.197 │ 7.32 │ 12.744 │ 1.679 │ │ σ │ 2142.26 │ 42524.1 │ 1258.54 │ 9.64 │ 10.014 │ 10.193 │ 33.407 │ 653.68 │ 8.805 │ 89.617 │ 1.588 │ └───┴─────────┴─────────┴─────────┴──────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.001, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3738.68. NUTS sampler had 25 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 199.06 (1) number of steps and depth of 3.78 (0). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 25, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.015, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.742. NUTS sampler had 15 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 247.04 (2) number of steps and depth of 4.85 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 15, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.779, Avg. final ℓposterior: -5864.068. NUTS sampler had 68 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 49.27 (1) number of steps and depth of 1.48 (0). Divergences in: Warmup: 43, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 25, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.001, Avg. final ℓposterior: -4436.643. NUTS sampler had 25 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 257.44 (1) number of steps and depth of 4.08 (0). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 25, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬─────────┬───────────┬─────────┬─────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬─────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼─────────┼───────────┼─────────┼─────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼─────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 76.445 │ 345.66 │ 73.265 │ -24.356 │ 0.414 │ 15.026 │ 37.974 │ 819.028 │ 11.618 │ 29.818 │ 1.671 │ │ σ │ 18519.2 │ 2.29535e5 │ 15016.9 │ 3.825 │ 10.183 │ 19.998 │ 33.019 │ 34345.4 │ 11.687 │ 37.74 │ 1.467 │ └───┴─────────┴───────────┴─────────┴─────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴─────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.029, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3737.415. NUTS sampler had 68 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 102.658 (23) number of steps and depth of 3.718 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 18, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 50, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.005, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3736.398. NUTS sampler had 85 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 106.268 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.872 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 35, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 50, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.001, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.513. NUTS sampler had 86 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 101.258 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.56 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 36, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 50, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.331, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3736.888. NUTS sampler had 75 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 120.826 (7) number of steps and depth of 3.984 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 25, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 50, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.002, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3738.438. NUTS sampler had 69 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 95.924 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.678 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 19, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 50, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.005, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3739.146. NUTS sampler had 85 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 112.942 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.916 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 35, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 50, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.01, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.581. NUTS sampler had 86 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 99.988 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.558 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 36, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 50, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.176, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.901. NUTS sampler had 74 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 111.43 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.968 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 24, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 50, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬─────────┬─────────┬─────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬─────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼─────────┼─────────┼─────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼─────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 3.144 │ 45.262 │ 4.604 │ -6.625 │ -0.016 │ 0.273 │ 0.552 │ 4.376 │ 48.488 │ 18.811 │ 1.128 │ │ σ │ 2633.99 │ 55242.9 │ 1971.18 │ 9.461 │ 9.873 │ 10.068 │ 10.312 │ 351.801 │ 32.904 │ 18.352 │ 1.083 │ └───┴─────────┴─────────┴─────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴─────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.001, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.42. NUTS sampler had 25 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 276.12 (1) number of steps and depth of 4.75 (0). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 25, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.001, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3736.505. NUTS sampler had 25 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 225.06 (1) number of steps and depth of 4.3 (0). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 25, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.001, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3736.044. NUTS sampler had 25 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 254.76 (1) number of steps and depth of 4.51 (0). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 25, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.001, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3739.437. NUTS sampler had 24 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 266.03 (1) number of steps and depth of 4.64 (0). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 24, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.001, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.42. NUTS sampler had 25 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 266.94 (1) number of steps and depth of 4.77 (0). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 25, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.001, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3736.505. NUTS sampler had 25 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 237.56 (1) number of steps and depth of 4.4 (0). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 25, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.001, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3736.044. NUTS sampler had 25 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 254.86 (1) number of steps and depth of 4.62 (0). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 25, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.001, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3739.437. NUTS sampler had 25 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 257.69 (1) number of steps and depth of 4.53 (0). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 25, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬─────────┬─────────┬─────────┬──────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬─────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼─────────┼─────────┼─────────┼──────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼─────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ -13.764 │ 35.177 │ 7.668 │ -111.726 │ -0.579 │ 0.164 │ 0.733 │ 16.047 │ 39.367 │ 63.118 │ 1.528 │ │ σ │ 5894.78 │ 64537.7 │ 4496.58 │ 9.196 │ 9.953 │ 10.184 │ 17.247 │ 22343.7 │ 18.742 │ 71.73 │ 1.465 │ └───┴─────────┴─────────┴─────────┴──────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴─────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.88, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.647. NUTS sampler had 25 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 24.838 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.506 (5). Divergences in: Warmup: 25, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.187 │ 0.281 │ 0.033 │ -0.306 │ -0.023 │ 0.163 │ 0.366 │ 0.746 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ │ σ │ 10.017 │ 0.207 │ 0.015 │ 9.603 │ 9.869 │ 10.032 │ 10.143 │ 10.446 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -3735.61, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.429. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 19.12 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.65 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.318 │ 0.263 │ 0.043 │ -0.137 │ 0.157 │ 0.289 │ 0.46 │ 0.847 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ │ σ │ 10.019 │ 0.188 │ 0.019 │ 9.669 │ 9.902 │ 10.003 │ 10.157 │ 10.394 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1868.228, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.385. NUTS sampler had 36 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 16.882 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.266 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 36, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1868.233, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3736.682. NUTS sampler had 29 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 18.138 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.358 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 29, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.268 │ 0.292 │ 0.037 │ -0.278 │ 0.038 │ 0.294 │ 0.463 │ 0.798 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ │ σ │ 10.011 │ 0.217 │ 0.012 │ 9.61 │ 9.853 │ 9.992 │ 10.176 │ 10.433 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -3736.187, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3738.659. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 18.32 (3) number of steps and depth of 3.54 (2). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -3735.304, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.755. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 20.42 (9) number of steps and depth of 3.77 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.283 │ 0.275 │ 0.032 │ -0.259 │ 0.097 │ 0.291 │ 0.427 │ 0.812 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ │ σ │ 10.04 │ 0.251 │ 0.026 │ 9.487 │ 9.894 │ 10.064 │ 10.214 │ 10.502 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.88, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2588.564. NUTS sampler had 28 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 20.842 (23) number of steps and depth of 3.518 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 28, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.88, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2588.5. NUTS sampler had 26 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 21.144 (23) number of steps and depth of 3.494 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 26, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1868.178, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2590.226. NUTS sampler had 24 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 19.452 (7) number of steps and depth of 3.326 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 24, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.88, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2588.573. NUTS sampler had 29 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.468 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.31 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 29, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.285 │ 0.349 │ 0.018 │ -0.431 │ 0.058 │ 0.28 │ 0.52 │ 0.964 │ 388.056 │ 583.59 │ 1.014 │ │ σ │ 10.006 │ 0.276 │ 0.014 │ 9.493 │ 9.806 │ 10.0 │ 10.195 │ 10.575 │ 374.169 │ 922.418 │ 1.013 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2589.606, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2696.976. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 20.82 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.77 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2590.039, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2696.732. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.52 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.57 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2589.948, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2696.316. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 19.34 (13) number of steps and depth of 3.59 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2589.697, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2695.548. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.82 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.56 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.284 │ 0.337 │ 0.036 │ -0.349 │ 0.061 │ 0.287 │ 0.517 │ 0.907 │ 85.733 │ 171.701 │ 1.031 │ │ σ │ 10.02 │ 0.27 │ 0.014 │ 9.474 │ 9.841 │ 10.024 │ 10.199 │ 10.575 │ 355.182 │ 192.684 │ 1.03 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.88, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2588.489. NUTS sampler had 22 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.536 (7) number of steps and depth of 3.292 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 22, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.88, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2588.339. NUTS sampler had 22 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 18.106 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.332 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 22, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.88, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2588.986. NUTS sampler had 22 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.84 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.318 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 22, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.88, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2588.669. NUTS sampler had 26 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.334 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.3 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 26, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.88, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2589.687. NUTS sampler had 23 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 16.752 (11) number of steps and depth of 3.278 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 23, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.801, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2588.782. NUTS sampler had 19 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.824 (11) number of steps and depth of 3.336 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 19, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1868.501, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2588.985. NUTS sampler had 20 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 18.64 (23) number of steps and depth of 3.31 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 20, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.88, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2588.485. NUTS sampler had 34 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 16.652 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.272 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 34, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.274 │ 0.37 │ 0.016 │ -0.454 │ 0.021 │ 0.274 │ 0.518 │ 1.013 │ 546.633 │ 802.682 │ 1.008 │ │ σ │ 10.034 │ 0.283 │ 0.007 │ 9.489 │ 9.839 │ 10.018 │ 10.219 │ 10.601 │ 1570.13 │ 1273.3 │ 1.001 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2591.844, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2695.869. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 15.86 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.36 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2589.983, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2696.962. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 18.7 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.7 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2590.994, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2695.538. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 19.92 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.73 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2590.461, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2695.449. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.56 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.55 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2591.856, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2695.742. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.1 (11) number of steps and depth of 3.57 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2589.451, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2695.268. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 19.74 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.71 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2590.166, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2695.369. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 20.42 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.72 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2590.713, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2695.509. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 16.42 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.53 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.292 │ 0.342 │ 0.025 │ -0.37 │ 0.062 │ 0.289 │ 0.505 │ 0.938 │ 190.294 │ 268.263 │ 1.006 │ │ σ │ 10.011 │ 0.245 │ 0.011 │ 9.509 │ 9.845 │ 10.007 │ 10.186 │ 10.484 │ 471.792 │ 372.653 │ 1.011 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Computing... 0%|▏ | ETA: 0:07:17 ( 1.10 s/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 2 logobjective: -3735.7599335028153 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.5413158259350118e-85 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3739.129127462438                         Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:02 ( 7.42 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 100 logobjective: -3736.6338658551654 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9998606429315371 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 127 ℓH: -3738.885526433838 Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -3735.76, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3736.362. NUTS sampler had 27 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 13.156 (95) number of steps and depth of 2.067 (6). Divergences in: Warmup: 27, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -3735.76, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.746. NUTS sampler had 23 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 24.4 (63) number of steps and depth of 2.333 (5). Divergences in: Warmup: 23, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -3735.369, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3737.944. NUTS sampler had 33 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 10.889 (23) number of steps and depth of 2.011 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 33, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -3735.759, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3736.634. NUTS sampler had 18 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 35.067 (127) number of steps and depth of 2.411 (6). Divergences in: Warmup: 18, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.235 │ 0.248 │ 0.05 │ -0.224 │ 0.087 │ 0.177 │ 0.346 │ 0.79 │ 25.168 │ 69.309 │ 1.314 │ │ σ │ 10.025 │ 0.141 │ 0.015 │ 9.708 │ 9.947 │ 10.03 │ 10.113 │ 10.3 │ 79.727 │ 55.197 │ 1.29 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Computing... 0%|▏ | ETA: 0:02:00 ( 0.30 s/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 102 logobjective: -3735.346450791276 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9998397021701971 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 63 ℓH: -3736.320869236958                         Computing... 28%|██████▉ | ETA: 0:00:02 ( 6.46 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 110 logobjective: -3736.3165666457417 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9999982747336875 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 63 ℓH: -3736.573089489294                         Computing... 55%|█████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 3.70 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 120 logobjective: -3737.4655236320036 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9999217955036128 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 43 ℓH: -3738.575939570335                         Computing... 82%|████████████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 2.91 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 128 logobjective: -3736.8422414874076 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9941057979149974 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 15 ℓH: -3737.335543655147                         Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:01 ( 2.52 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 200 logobjective: -3735.3317748247227 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9995247668474742 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 31 ℓH: -3736.1793764087743 Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -3735.545, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.487. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 22.089 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.7 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -3736.106, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3737.223. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 26.578 (23) number of steps and depth of 3.822 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -3738.886, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.393. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.933 (7) number of steps and depth of 3.433 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -3736.272, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.332. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 38.133 (31) number of steps and depth of 4.156 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.299 │ 0.337 │ 0.033 │ -0.384 │ 0.074 │ 0.318 │ 0.525 │ 0.942 │ 107.373 │ 116.552 │ 1.046 │ │ σ │ 10.009 │ 0.256 │ 0.02 │ 9.505 │ 9.842 │ 10.008 │ 10.165 │ 10.509 │ 159.094 │ 117.586 │ 1.033 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Computing... 0%|▏ | ETA: 0:02:28 ( 0.37 s/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1000 Avgℓobjective: -3738.4475361328045 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8235437186907668 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:01 ( 4.16 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1099 Avgℓobjective: -3738.3568549150004 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.6424563201373563 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -3738.296, variance: 0.23 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -3738.357, variance: 0.489 Total number of jittering steps: 112. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.752, -0.074, 0.285, 0.653, 0.912]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.316 │ 0.287 │ 0.027 │ -0.289 │ 0.127 │ 0.325 │ 0.513 │ 0.828 │ 112.795 │ 120.72 │ 1.029 │ │ σ │ 10.02 │ 0.222 │ 0.013 │ 9.551 │ 9.881 │ 10.024 │ 10.162 │ 10.461 │ 305.109 │ 250.855 │ 1.017 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Computing... 40%|██████████▏ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 0.62 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1140 Avgℓobjective: -1578.1993469369838 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9698694167194748 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 80%|████████████████████▏ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 1.89 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1180 Avgℓobjective: -1577.7563851878074 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.1343787323810216 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 88%|██████████████████████▏ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 2.01 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1188 Avgℓobjective: -1577.2159432135225 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.7570721644127653 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 97%|████████████████████████▎| ETA: 0:00:00 ( 2.12 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1197 Avgℓobjective: -1577.504366821327 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.4224262968613001 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:00 ( 2.15 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1199 Avgℓobjective: -1577.4523631873776 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.39150549995288364 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1576.979, variance: 0.199 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1577.452, variance: 0.235 Total number of jittering steps: 230. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.488, 0.135, 0.534, 0.837, 1.0]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.029 │ 0.029 │ 0.003 │ -0.02 │ 0.01 │ 0.031 │ 0.046 │ 0.089 │ 140.345 │ 200.857 │ 1.127 │ │ σ │ 1.014 │ 0.024 │ 0.006 │ 0.966 │ 0.997 │ 1.014 │ 1.03 │ 1.062 │ 18.797 │ 26.369 │ 1.201 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Computing... 0%| | ETA: 0:12:14 ( 0.92 s/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1000 Avgℓobjective: -49567.00504540928 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: NaN generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 13%|███▎ | ETA: 0:00:19 (27.17 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1050 Avgℓobjective: -3738.4913904784617 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.32381700014044307 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 14%|███▌ | ETA: 0:00:18 (25.58 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 57 logobjective: -3736.024101974162 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 6.454449364469017e-107 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3736.3664631542492                         Computing... 15%|███▊ | ETA: 0:00:17 (25.13 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1060 Avgℓobjective: -3738.156013791363 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.813369357071279 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 16%|████ | ETA: 0:00:16 (24.55 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1064 Avgℓobjective: -3738.2942393775793 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9105088859485007 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 17%|████▎ | ETA: 0:00:16 (24.18 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 69 logobjective: -3735.573248204514 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.07940882370510184 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -3736.108534613984                         Computing... 18%|████▌ | ETA: 0:00:16 (23.91 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1071 Avgℓobjective: -3738.1924107616005 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.7423347492237092 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 19%|████▋ | ETA: 0:00:16 (23.91 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 75 logobjective: -3736.338465400648 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 3.605671634845371e-80 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3736.929857132196                         Computing... 19%|████▊ | ETA: 0:00:16 (24.33 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 77 logobjective: -3736.1381188031028 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.8643305418125355e-12 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -3737.3202496936783                         Computing... 22%|█████▍ | ETA: 0:00:14 (23.07 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 87 logobjective: -3736.869424180212 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.28392169529259786 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -3738.1850357111757                         Computing... 23%|█████▋ | ETA: 0:00:14 (22.68 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 91 logobjective: -3735.5077280044047 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 2.4346489667150315e-16 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3735.718718904475                         Computing... 24%|█████▉ | ETA: 0:00:14 (22.51 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1093 Avgℓobjective: -3738.2971591958412 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8392758760585599 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 24%|██████ | ETA: 0:00:14 (22.41 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1096 Avgℓobjective: -3738.5035368435274 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.471226311751355 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 25%|██████▎ | ETA: 0:00:13 (22.35 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 1 logobjective: -49566.98569141124 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.0 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -49570.509063758145                         Computing... 31%|███████▉ | ETA: 0:00:12 (21.66 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 26 logobjective: -4943.823056277593 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.0 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -4947.117604234665                         Computing... 34%|████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:11 (20.69 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 37 logobjective: -3744.315367984552 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.0 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3744.6411252861735                         Computing... 36%|████████▉ | ETA: 0:00:11 (20.48 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1041 Avgℓobjective: -3737.987843648496 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.30201126905099546 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 36%|█████████▏ | ETA: 0:00:10 (20.46 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 46 logobjective: -3736.948425146128 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 5.835592526801962e-109 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3737.617992669133                         Computing... 37%|█████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:10 (20.57 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1047 Avgℓobjective: -3737.8674476492783 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.05300234941127857 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 39%|█████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:10 (20.12 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 56 logobjective: -3735.3431794463763 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.0007170944790907872 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -3737.1425591767998                         Computing... 40%|██████████ | ETA: 0:00:10 (20.03 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1059 Avgℓobjective: -3738.9781806845826 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.24043870559666558 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 42%|██████████▍ | ETA: 0:00:09 (19.60 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 67 logobjective: -3738.0840476136073 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 7.046037258971977e-53 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -3739.298058113052                         Computing... 43%|██████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:09 (19.34 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1071 Avgℓobjective: -3738.295094304395 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.2621353195517273 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 44%|███████████ | ETA: 0:00:09 (19.16 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 77 logobjective: -3736.3063976129774 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.04824960794005111 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -3737.494849072308                         Computing... 45%|███████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:08 (19.12 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1080 Avgℓobjective: -3738.5040182254197 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.317676734520711 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 47%|███████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:08 (18.75 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 89 logobjective: -3736.087959650248 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 7.917059789812887e-15 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3736.289733454066                         Computing... 49%|████████████▏ | ETA: 0:00:08 (18.46 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 95 logobjective: -3737.666731833663 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 2.436876187346591e-8 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3737.688905439669                         Computing... 50%|████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:07 (18.27 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 100 logobjective: -3735.4945621130823 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.4353523126690538e-10 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -3735.5960844876454                         Computing... 56%|██████████████ | ETA: 0:00:06 (16.94 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1023 Avgℓobjective: -3901.111776042787 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.14914565899657972 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 60%|██████████████▉ | ETA: 0:00:05 (16.46 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1037 Avgℓobjective: -3737.968642058935 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.841847581630397 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 61%|███████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:05 (16.42 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 44 logobjective: -3736.047071039845 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 7.734648994388548e-113 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3739.3548653447165                         Computing... 62%|███████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:05 (16.57 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1046 Avgℓobjective: -3739.3843514643613 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9081907052146502 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 63%|███████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:05 (16.60 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1050 Avgℓobjective: -3737.780987297087 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.29482477737413954 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 64%|████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:05 (16.61 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1054 Avgℓobjective: -3738.676374066227 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.0526972344342721 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 65%|████████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:05 (16.57 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1058 Avgℓobjective: -3739.209454562324 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.2292601857125418 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 66%|████████████████▍ | ETA: 0:00:05 (16.69 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1061 Avgℓobjective: -3738.0220226844963 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.4621038537353465 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 68%|█████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:04 (16.89 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1072 Avgℓobjective: -3739.5701022900917 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.7453327843724721 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 69%|█████████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:04 (16.93 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1075 Avgℓobjective: -3738.483821534385 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.596941622971696 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 70%|█████████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:04 (16.95 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1078 Avgℓobjective: -3738.491043053128 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.6393129802172 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 70%|█████████████████▋ | ETA: 0:00:04 (17.00 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 82 logobjective: -3736.4683913453005 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.0 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3736.7844142077893                         Computing... 71%|█████████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:04 (17.10 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1083 Avgℓobjective: -3738.725831953687 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.18896854487659379 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 72%|█████████████████▉ | ETA: 0:00:04 (17.20 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1085 Avgℓobjective: -3737.832559197378 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.1396066356119321 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 72%|██████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:04 (17.29 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1087 Avgℓobjective: -3738.339500023996 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.5988801668243036 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 73%|██████████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:04 (17.36 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 92 logobjective: -3735.318519950808 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.010478223207420766 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 2 ℓH: -3736.466055296127                         Computing... 73%|██████████████████▍ | ETA: 0:00:04 (17.46 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 94 logobjective: -3736.0422437174757 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 2.813224793635929e-90 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3737.7862154079226                         Computing... 74%|██████████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:04 (17.54 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1095 Avgℓobjective: -3737.758008061234 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.6664645990110761 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 74%|██████████████████▋ | ETA: 0:00:04 (17.62 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1097 Avgℓobjective: -3738.575428170027 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.2055764976477508 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 78%|███████████████████▋ | ETA: 0:00:03 (16.89 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1013 Avgℓobjective: -6840.332979860956 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.5136132128567844 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 82%|████████████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:02 (17.22 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 29 logobjective: -3737.721274373045 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 4.092270262887407e-107 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 2 ℓH: -3739.1637013019367                         Computing... 85%|█████████████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:02 (16.79 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1039 Avgℓobjective: -3738.2088512818477 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.2746676576294603 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 90%|██████████████████████▍ | ETA: 0:00:01 (16.09 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1057 Avgℓobjective: -3738.6593400111055 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.3204828408047362 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 94%|███████████████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:01 (15.58 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1074 Avgℓobjective: -3738.843724870173 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.5905546610957251 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 96%|████████████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:00 (15.41 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1084 Avgℓobjective: -3738.1138982955026 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.502057135660178 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 98%|████████████████████████▌| ETA: 0:00:00 (15.31 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1090 Avgℓobjective: -3738.727711657664 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.0815069940580484 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 99%|████████████████████████▊| ETA: 0:00:00 (15.22 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1096 Avgℓobjective: -3738.317171028058 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.6535649557837279 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:12 (15.19 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1099 Avgℓobjective: -3738.633580804174 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.14320921224236138 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -8898.125, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.877. NUTS sampler had 53 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.667 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.756 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 49, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 4, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -18322.387, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.495. NUTS sampler had 49 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.656 (3) number of steps and depth of 0.833 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 45, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 4, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -8841.796, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.719. NUTS sampler had 52 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.611 (2) number of steps and depth of 0.8 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 47, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 5, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -8110.309, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3738.602. NUTS sampler had 46 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.7 (3) number of steps and depth of 0.822 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 41, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 5, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -9322.816, variance: 1.3211604241e7 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -3738.087, variance: 0.115 Total number of jittering steps: 233. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.283, 0.351, 0.64, 0.874, 0.98]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.75, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 2: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -14108.689, variance: 6.5420403255e7 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -3739.139, variance: 1.382 Total number of jittering steps: 231. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.196, 0.285, 0.65, 0.869, 0.999]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 3: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -10097.426, variance: 4.808001518e6 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -3738.263, variance: 0.094 Total number of jittering steps: 229. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.693, 0.171, 0.445, 0.876, 0.997]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 4: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -14653.5, variance: 7.5305226027e7 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -3738.634, variance: 0.553 Total number of jittering steps: 179. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.598, 0.21, 0.575, 0.822, 0.971]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 6.775]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.212 │ 0.262 │ 0.019 │ -0.255 │ 0.045 │ 0.144 │ 0.411 │ 0.738 │ 206.44 │ 242.525 │ 1.052 │ │ σ │ 9.429 │ 2.603 │ 0.344 │ 2.774 │ 9.77 │ 9.978 │ 10.142 │ 10.592 │ 74.85 │ 70.239 │ 1.062 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Computing... 0%| | ETA: 0:05:31 ( 0.41 s/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1100 Avgℓobjective: -3280.1354532730393 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.3123615495583977 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 2%|▌ | ETA: 0:00:49 (62.29 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 108 logobjective: -2313.467628749205 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.0 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -2313.506579704693                         Computing... 7%|█▊ | ETA: 0:00:14 (18.18 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 129 logobjective: -1600.4950700059032 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 5.200053921180202e-13 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1601.198804571133                         Computing... 12%|███▏ | ETA: 0:00:09 (12.95 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 150 logobjective: -1601.0849417965442 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.9999707768866214e-145 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -1602.6457788392293                         Computing... 15%|███▊ | ETA: 0:00:08 (11.53 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1159 Avgℓobjective: -1602.1018908650667 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.6511847366008255 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 18%|████▌ | ETA: 0:00:07 (10.50 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1170 Avgℓobjective: -1600.9472999691752 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.10173391750166674 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 21%|█████▎ | ETA: 0:00:06 ( 9.49 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1183 Avgℓobjective: -1601.3556588452188 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9438553600421504 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 24%|██████ | ETA: 0:00:05 ( 8.79 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 197 logobjective: -1600.7284227519233 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 2.8055940946637554e-7 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1601.4463809555189                         Computing... 27%|██████▊ | ETA: 0:00:05 ( 8.41 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1108 Avgℓobjective: -1919.9514346118285 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9929136706710809 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 37%|█████████▍ | ETA: 0:00:03 ( 6.53 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 150 logobjective: -1600.955858551267 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.0278045207298148e-5 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -1601.8903474462672                         Computing... 46%|███████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:03 ( 5.87 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 185 logobjective: -1601.167020268235 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.0 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1603.564338051918                         Computing... 50%|████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:02 ( 5.67 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1100 Avgℓobjective: -2980.726576049059 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.544981892261472 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 54%|█████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:02 ( 5.65 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 116 logobjective: -1600.795263816322 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.6367302538074543e-42 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1601.4177903003083                         Computing... 61%|███████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:02 ( 5.20 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1144 Avgℓobjective: -1600.9142740458615 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.11008048505958784 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 68%|█████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 4.89 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 172 logobjective: -1600.483648219024 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 2.5241971734304355e-120 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1600.751780407658                         Computing... 74%|██████████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 4.66 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1196 Avgℓobjective: -1601.1322130428575 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.7618582272545017 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 80%|████████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 4.73 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 120 logobjective: -1636.5616649451401 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.0 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1637.774307545313                         Computing... 90%|██████████████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 4.41 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1159 Avgℓobjective: -1601.5962825698703 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.0906548172105771 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 97%|████████████████████████▎| ETA: 0:00:00 ( 4.39 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 188 logobjective: -1601.0898280431306 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 6.97084357774468e-129 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 2 ℓH: -1602.9694595570625                         Computing... 99%|█████████████████████████| ETA: 0:00:00 ( 4.41 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 200 logobjective: -1600.685838473154 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.1596215270021888e-36 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1601.6207494202172                         Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:03 ( 4.41 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1199 Avgℓobjective: -1601.1690435060702 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.41279358047570686 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1601.331, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1600.529. NUTS sampler had 52 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.5 (2) number of steps and depth of 0.733 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 45, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 7, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1603.751, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1600.553. NUTS sampler had 54 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.489 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.744 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 49, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 5, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1600.699, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1601.217. NUTS sampler had 42 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.556 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.878 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 36, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 6, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1602.291, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1600.686. NUTS sampler had 46 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.489 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.789 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 35, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 11, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1649.909, variance: 9662.595 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1601.526, variance: 0.48 Total number of jittering steps: 288. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.414, 0.399, 0.799, 0.94, 0.994]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 5.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 2: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1657.19, variance: 4783.287 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1601.309, variance: 0.474 Total number of jittering steps: 258. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.47, 0.063, 0.63, 0.898, 0.999]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 4.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 3: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1657.959, variance: 12811.335 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1601.702, variance: 0.235 Total number of jittering steps: 259. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.713, -0.021, 0.603, 0.923, 0.995]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 4: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1735.154, variance: 70471.348 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1601.169, variance: 0.566 Total number of jittering steps: 292. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.241, 0.175, 0.713, 0.917, 1.0]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 5.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ -0.026 │ 0.059 │ 0.006 │ -0.113 │ -0.053 │ -0.026 │ -0.004 │ 0.046 │ 266.411 │ 71.617 │ 1.052 │ │ σ │ 1.031 │ 0.092 │ 0.012 │ 0.881 │ 1.018 │ 1.033 │ 1.048 │ 1.086 │ 144.281 │ 59.526 │ 1.083 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Computing... 0%|▏ | ETA: 0:04:37 ( 0.70 s/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 2 logobjective: -1079.8232668525707 Temperature: 0.289050497374996 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.31301091036939543 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -1080.1907697625957                         Computing... 56%|█████████████▉ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 7.44 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 22 logobjective: -2802.4658381240592 Temperature: 0.7502601055951177 accepted: true acceptancerate: 2.993570365080371e-24 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -2803.40768763426                         Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:01 ( 4.33 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 100 logobjective: -3735.437336931283 Temperature: 0.9998636296729204 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9997278346783417 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 63 ℓH: -3735.678101730642 Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1868.144, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.373. NUTS sampler had 26 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 18.756 (79) number of steps and depth of 2.144 (6). Divergences in: Warmup: 26, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1869.526, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.303. NUTS sampler had 35 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 59.5 (15) number of steps and depth of 2.4 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 35, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.649, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3737.345. NUTS sampler had 23 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 11.978 (7) number of steps and depth of 1.944 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 23, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.745, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.437. NUTS sampler had 17 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 10.389 (63) number of steps and depth of 1.933 (5). Divergences in: Warmup: 17, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.155 │ 0.285 │ 0.085 │ -0.405 │ 0.04 │ 0.168 │ 0.299 │ 0.73 │ 11.331 │ 17.963 │ 1.324 │ │ σ │ 9.92 │ 0.272 │ 0.098 │ 9.455 │ 9.793 │ 9.973 │ 10.114 │ 10.318 │ 10.146 │ 5.633 │ 1.389 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Computing... 0%|▏ | ETA: 0:02:08 ( 0.32 s/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 102 logobjective: -1079.914977697063 Temperature: 0.289050497374996 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9998669223347451 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 127 ℓH: -1080.2099676413727                         Computing... 19%|████▊ | ETA: 0:00:03 ( 9.64 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 177 logobjective: -3731.291295041791 Temperature: 0.9986414800495711 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9990532218221688 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 11 ℓH: -3732.320743460746                         Computing... 38%|█████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:02 ( 8.08 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 151 logobjective: -3668.557403654851 Temperature: 0.9820137900379085 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.0 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 31 ℓH: -3669.2571412038264                         Computing... 78%|███████████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 4.46 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 111 logobjective: -1869.4800341676982 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9991771338141376 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 63 ℓH: -1871.1810365037368                         Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:01 ( 3.62 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 200 logobjective: -3739.3863425718487 Temperature: 0.9998636296729204 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9883485726842672 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 15 ℓH: -3739.8052124135925 Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1868.376, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3734.964. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 26.222 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.889 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1868.224, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.511. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 80.933 (29) number of steps and depth of 4.3 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1868.899, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.32. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 26.889 (39) number of steps and depth of 4.089 (5). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1869.48, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3739.386. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 18.356 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.578 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.278 │ 0.274 │ 0.023 │ -0.259 │ 0.085 │ 0.304 │ 0.461 │ 0.796 │ 136.609 │ 131.956 │ 1.033 │ │ σ │ 10.007 │ 0.235 │ 0.015 │ 9.573 │ 9.852 │ 10.004 │ 10.163 │ 10.445 │ 259.157 │ 248.41 │ 1.009 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Computing... 0%|▏ | ETA: 0:02:18 ( 0.35 s/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1000 Avgℓobjective: -1080.8711792073886 Temperature: 0.289050497374996 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.22777723263088684 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 32%|████████ | ETA: 0:00:02 ( 6.31 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1031 Avgℓobjective: -3330.933467096309 Temperature: 0.8909031788043871 ESS: 3.999444598736795 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.04335347936224304 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 61%|███████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 3.77 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1060 Avgℓobjective: -3714.4117801238463 Temperature: 0.9933071490757153 ESS: 3.9999996707147027 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.03132952442940434 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 94%|███████████████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 2.72 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1094 Avgℓobjective: -3737.6603238439375 Temperature: 0.9997751832297667 ESS: 3.9999999983287067 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.690700401539095 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:01 ( 2.61 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1099 Avgℓobjective: -3737.9245738108393 Temperature: 0.9998636296729204 ESS: 3.9999999984462837 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.468115870511318 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1870.003, variance: 4.061 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -3737.925, variance: 0.255 Total number of jittering steps: 117. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.388, 0.145, 0.457, 0.652, 0.945]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.775]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.976, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.232 │ 0.345 │ 0.04 │ -0.411 │ -0.005 │ 0.213 │ 0.465 │ 0.926 │ 75.635 │ 95.695 │ 1.101 │ │ σ │ 10.005 │ 0.264 │ 0.016 │ 9.466 │ 9.837 │ 10.007 │ 10.191 │ 10.53 │ 253.704 │ 174.41 │ 1.034 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Computing... 62%|███████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 0.41 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1162 Avgℓobjective: -1551.8573723227923 Temperature: 0.9945137011005495 ESS: 3.9999987661569185 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.09530105523507248 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:00 ( 0.73 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1199 Avgℓobjective: -1559.8999700721681 Temperature: 0.9998636296729204 ESS: 3.999999998963845 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.09199219205579551 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -790.061, variance: 6.089 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1559.9, variance: 1.671 Total number of jittering steps: 226. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.419, 0.093, 0.396, 0.836, 1.0]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.985, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ -0.026 │ 0.032 │ 0.002 │ -0.094 │ -0.048 │ -0.026 │ -0.005 │ 0.035 │ 176.094 │ 150.577 │ 1.037 │ │ σ │ 0.995 │ 0.03 │ 0.004 │ 0.942 │ 0.978 │ 0.994 │ 1.013 │ 1.056 │ 62.166 │ 45.068 │ 1.048 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Computing... 0%| | ETA: 0:12:51 ( 0.97 s/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1000 Avgℓobjective: -13600.871606312277 Temperature: 0.289050497374996 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: NaN generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 13%|███▏ | ETA: 0:00:20 (28.15 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 51 logobjective: -3668.225057148174 Temperature: 0.9820137900379085 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.05466065446167421 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -3670.2771271909846                         Computing... 21%|█████▎ | ETA: 0:00:12 (19.35 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1083 Avgℓobjective: -3736.769423022598 Temperature: 0.9993249172693672 ESS: 3.999999970673654 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.05432630584252501 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 24%|█████▉ | ETA: 0:00:11 (17.90 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1093 Avgℓobjective: -3737.1187706017777 Temperature: 0.9997515449181605 ESS: 3.9999999984493986 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.14013222761958355 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 26%|██████▌ | ETA: 0:00:10 (16.97 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1002 Avgℓobjective: -14587.822249595758 Temperature: 0.31002551887238755 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: NaN generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 38%|█████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:09 (18.18 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1051 Avgℓobjective: -3678.6397096709406 Temperature: 0.9836975006285591 ESS: 3.999968743992027 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9065852393938536 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 44%|███████████ | ETA: 0:00:07 (16.35 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1076 Avgℓobjective: -3734.6431756763504 Temperature: 0.9986414800495711 ESS: 3.9999996887322644 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.5851490662226634 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 47%|███████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:07 (15.80 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1086 Avgℓobjective: -3736.7795765788455 Temperature: 0.9994997988929205 ESS: 3.9999999922732474 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8410293422340219 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 49%|████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:06 (15.39 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 96 logobjective: -3734.6485099467873 Temperature: 0.9997965730219448 accepted: true acceptancerate: 3.3817188314923705e-15 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3736.078848894883                         Computing... 53%|█████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:05 (14.44 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1011 Avgℓobjective: -2145.160533445387 Temperature: 0.52497918747894 ESS: 3.76676545320602 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8847854517184663 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 57%|██████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:05 (15.26 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1027 Avgℓobjective: -3161.262598307399 Temperature: 0.8455347349164652 ESS: 3.9996281152781723 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.5008519463963388 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 58%|██████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:05 (15.33 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1030 Avgℓobjective: -3293.6510133333118 Temperature: 0.8807970779778823 ESS: 3.9995148172735857 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.582874480899956 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 58%|██████████████▋ | ETA: 0:00:05 (15.39 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 34 logobjective: -3395.6457850722104 Temperature: 0.9088770389851438 accepted: true acceptancerate: 3.4995083260651576e-52 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 2 ℓH: -3397.0615814634075                         Computing... 59%|██████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:05 (15.73 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1035 Avgℓobjective: -3454.715552347373 Temperature: 0.9241418199787566 ESS: 3.9999926815638847 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.2250798623498959 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 60%|██████████████▉ | ETA: 0:00:05 (15.95 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1037 Avgℓobjective: -3503.3021316780982 Temperature: 0.9370266439430035 ESS: 3.999918496551181 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.03015275867602396 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 60%|███████████████ | ETA: 0:00:05 (16.11 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1038 Avgℓobjective: -3524.985010704866 Temperature: 0.9426758241011313 ESS: 3.9998695391878547 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.7433385316225656 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 61%|███████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:05 (16.48 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 45 logobjective: -3617.005733620691 Temperature: 0.9677045353015495 accepted: true acceptancerate: 2.3654592782940594e-142 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 2 ℓH: -3617.5085958664267                         Computing... 66%|████████████████▋ | ETA: 0:00:04 (15.39 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1065 Avgℓobjective: -3723.1547404360435 Temperature: 0.995929862284104 ESS: 3.9999995857339496 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.4103622238193542 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 71%|█████████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:03 (14.80 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1082 Avgℓobjective: -3736.430032441245 Temperature: 0.9992539711661633 ESS: 3.9999999770265102 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.627716015979344 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 73%|██████████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:03 (14.54 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1091 Avgℓobjective: -3738.195927010934 Temperature: 0.9996965529699712 ESS: 3.999999991583689 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9378323701486211 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 77%|███████████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:03 (14.00 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1006 Avgℓobjective: -16422.888369309803 Temperature: 0.401312339887548 ESS: 3.9999999999991207 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.04684434404216187 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 87%|█████████████████████▋ | ETA: 0:00:02 (14.58 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 47 logobjective: -3636.360462563913 Temperature: 0.973403006423134 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.1041305197469695e-12 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -3637.300973187289                         Computing... 87%|█████████████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:02 (14.75 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1048 Avgℓobjective: -3657.414258695474 Temperature: 0.9781187290638694 ESS: 3.9999857818552513 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.5960991556736198 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 91%|██████████████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:01 (14.34 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1063 Avgℓobjective: -3720.1077656697203 Temperature: 0.995033198349943 ESS: 3.999998914543901 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8558394772846694 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 94%|███████████████████████▍ | ETA: 0:00:01 (14.18 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1073 Avgℓobjective: -3731.7113064499345 Temperature: 0.9981670610575072 ESS: 3.9999998327305732 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.02559007294288146 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 96%|████████████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:00 (13.99 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1082 Avgℓobjective: -3735.654383136075 Temperature: 0.9992539711661633 ESS: 3.999999974649752 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.012139565822844867 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 98%|████████████████████████▌| ETA: 0:00:00 (13.82 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 92 logobjective: -3735.1080450096915 Temperature: 0.9996965529699712 accepted: true acceptancerate: 9.458332692246821e-12 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 2 ℓH: -3736.3628364195656                         Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:10 (13.73 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1099 Avgℓobjective: -3737.9856827315293 Temperature: 0.9998636296729204 ESS: 3.999999999443175 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9089155567285022 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -4098.395, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.223. NUTS sampler had 53 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.556 (3) number of steps and depth of 0.711 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 47, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 6, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -4240.235, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3738.397. NUTS sampler had 51 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.767 (3) number of steps and depth of 0.833 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 42, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 9, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2092.83, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3734.939. NUTS sampler had 47 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.833 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.878 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 43, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 4, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -8745.287, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.284. NUTS sampler had 47 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.556 (3) number of steps and depth of 0.811 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 42, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 5, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -4093.29, variance: 30.459 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -3737.716, variance: 0.145 Total number of jittering steps: 192. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.564, 0.145, 0.454, 0.799, 0.946]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [1.0, 3.806, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 2: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -4081.176, variance: 83709.878 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -3738.42, variance: 2.191 Total number of jittering steps: 195. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.407, 0.011, 0.39, 0.676, 0.943]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.75, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [1.25, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 3: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -2087.519, variance: 29.908 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -3738.09, variance: 0.823 Total number of jittering steps: 196. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.523, 0.148, 0.437, 0.669, 0.959]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [2.546, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 4: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -8093.206, variance: 1.017982357e6 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -3737.986, variance: 0.382 Total number of jittering steps: 195. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.511, 0.057, 0.568, 0.823, 0.97]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [1.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.201 │ 0.308 │ 0.024 │ -0.345 │ -0.006 │ 0.153 │ 0.419 │ 0.817 │ 159.234 │ 161.926 │ 1.035 │ │ σ │ 9.508 │ 1.911 │ 0.471 │ 3.412 │ 9.765 │ 9.975 │ 10.151 │ 10.624 │ 37.747 │ 28.469 │ 1.083 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Computing... 0%| | ETA: 0:05:23 ( 0.41 s/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1100 Avgℓobjective: -937.7688287835126 Temperature: 0.289050497374996 ESS: 3.999999999910658 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.43461781368192964 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 7%|█▊ | ETA: 0:00:12 (15.77 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1128 Avgℓobjective: -1350.9463466655172 Temperature: 0.8581489350995123 ESS: 3.9999394474122116 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.6959654711153318 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 14%|███▌ | ETA: 0:00:06 ( 9.16 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 157 logobjective: -1558.586130625849 Temperature: 0.9900481981330957 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.7056665184264204e-90 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1562.168459558342                         Computing... 20%|█████ | ETA: 0:00:04 ( 7.05 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1180 Avgℓobjective: -1573.7640921524987 Temperature: 0.9990889488055994 ESS: 3.9999999346764374 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.486152595966441 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 28%|███████ | ETA: 0:00:03 ( 5.64 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1110 Avgℓobjective: -879.4908525787433 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 1.4440490186013692 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.475594570664437 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 35%|████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:03 ( 4.86 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 140 logobjective: -1492.026989804319 Temperature: 0.9478464369215823 accepted: true acceptancerate: 7.760113442409431e-60 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1495.046688277297                         Computing... 42%|██████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:02 ( 4.35 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1167 Avgℓobjective: -1569.881452742421 Temperature: 0.9966651926925867 ESS: 3.9999998194070914 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.6367470220499728 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 50%|████████████▋ | ETA: 0:00:02 ( 3.90 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 102 logobjective: -727.4887054063179 Temperature: 0.289050497374996 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.6666666666666666 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -990.790019394514                         Computing... 58%|██████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 3.63 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1132 Avgℓobjective: -1418.00767735831 Temperature: 0.9002495108803148 ESS: 3.9999337285017584 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.30102514485026355 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 66%|████████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 3.40 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1163 Avgℓobjective: -1567.155727895046 Temperature: 0.995033198349943 ESS: 3.999999537203568 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.5971523799404097 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 75%|██████████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 3.16 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1199 Avgℓobjective: -1574.6301575189254 Temperature: 0.9998636296729204 ESS: 3.999999999834235 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9999999999999999 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 84%|████████████████████▉ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 3.11 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 135 logobjective: -1443.4353720037582 Temperature: 0.9168273035060777 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.4635845626423552e-8 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1443.595914103575                         Computing... 89%|██████████████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 3.07 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1155 Avgℓobjective: -1557.1436505933295 Temperature: 0.9890130573694068 ESS: 3.999990519835789 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.05447017186986412 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 95%|███████████████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 3.02 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1178 Avgℓobjective: -1572.7917945124975 Temperature: 0.9988874639671398 ESS: 3.9999999572685536 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.734542218602671 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:02 ( 2.95 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1199 Avgℓobjective: -1574.1110214434111 Temperature: 0.9998636296729204 ESS: 3.9999999999258415 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9054270495970107 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -903.438, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1576.357. NUTS sampler had 45 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.689 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.9 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 39, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 6, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -928.707, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1575.285. NUTS sampler had 31 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.578 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.978 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 25, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 6, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -831.649, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1574.154. NUTS sampler had 49 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.611 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.822 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 37, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 12, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -788.049, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1574.505. NUTS sampler had 43 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.656 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.9 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 32, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 11, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1057.073, variance: 34.626 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1574.757, variance: 1.356 Total number of jittering steps: 125. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.567, 0.069, 0.419, 0.728, 0.974]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 6.55]. Quantiles for ESS: [2.386, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 2: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -879.491, variance: 1122.932 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1574.932, variance: 1.423 Total number of jittering steps: 186. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.542, 0.185, 0.614, 0.857, 0.992]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [2.967, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 3: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -826.988, variance: 136.81 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1574.63, variance: 0.22 Total number of jittering steps: 229. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.753, 0.13, 0.587, 0.83, 1.0]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [2.972, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 4: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -788.497, variance: 1.092 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1574.111, variance: 0.102 Total number of jittering steps: 150. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.545, 0.034, 0.366, 0.702, 0.979]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.992, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.031 │ 0.048 │ 0.003 │ -0.045 │ 0.006 │ 0.029 │ 0.049 │ 0.105 │ 321.709 │ 170.957 │ 1.007 │ │ σ │ 1.029 │ 0.124 │ 0.015 │ 0.969 │ 0.998 │ 1.014 │ 1.028 │ 1.185 │ 102.189 │ 44.807 │ 1.034 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Computing... 0%|▏ | ETA: 0:04:26 ( 0.67 s/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 1 logobjective: -1867.8799667514077 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.8663145909811866 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1867.8941454291996                         Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:01 ( 3.86 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 100 logobjective: -1868.7028090586434 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9999607625955212 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 15 ℓH: -1869.0950799838947 Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.993, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1868.032. NUTS sampler had 22 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 12.067 (47) number of steps and depth of 2.0 (5). Divergences in: Warmup: 22, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.954, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1867.938. NUTS sampler had 22 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 11.633 (47) number of steps and depth of 1.956 (5). Divergences in: Warmup: 22, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1868.704, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1868.629. NUTS sampler had 20 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 26.056 (7) number of steps and depth of 2.256 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 20, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1868.325, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1868.703. NUTS sampler had 18 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 10.844 (15) number of steps and depth of 2.0 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 18, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.134 │ 0.294 │ 0.092 │ -0.49 │ -0.055 │ 0.09 │ 0.362 │ 0.634 │ 10.454 │ 36.397 │ 1.38 │ │ σ │ 10.058 │ 0.257 │ 0.03 │ 9.566 │ 9.86 │ 10.002 │ 10.28 │ 10.474 │ 77.03 │ 173.527 │ 1.081 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Computing... 0%|▏ | ETA: 0:02:13 ( 0.33 s/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 101 logobjective: -1868.569334030872 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9986108298657382 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 31 ℓH: -1869.5546481329868                         Computing... 19%|████▊ | ETA: 0:00:03 (10.01 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 120 logobjective: -1868.5947098988797 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9999785413617418 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 31 ℓH: -1868.7704176449865                         Computing... 46%|███████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 4.78 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 146 logobjective: -1867.8289683558694 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9988095463635481 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 23 ℓH: -1868.7893840160873                         Computing... 79%|███████████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 3.11 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 179 logobjective: -1868.0455014871711 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9995067518860398 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 31 ℓH: -1868.9311475167985                         Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:01 ( 2.62 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 200 logobjective: -1867.7840185398718 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9994690389044901 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 15 ℓH: -1868.74836988976 Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1868.856, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1868.143. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 18.6 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.622 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1868.474, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1868.244. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 29.756 (31) number of steps and depth of 4.311 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1869.062, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1867.972. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 25.244 (15) number of steps and depth of 4.056 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.788, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1867.784. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 20.4 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.644 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.262 │ 0.497 │ 0.056 │ -0.772 │ -0.093 │ 0.268 │ 0.595 │ 1.206 │ 76.912 │ 96.764 │ 1.048 │ │ σ │ 10.045 │ 0.305 │ 0.019 │ 9.518 │ 9.828 │ 10.024 │ 10.251 │ 10.641 │ 255.421 │ 272.288 │ 1.008 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Computing... 0%|▏ | ETA: 0:02:14 ( 0.34 s/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1000 Avgℓobjective: -1869.2856463891535 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9823001420538695 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 26%|██████▍ | ETA: 0:00:03 ( 8.45 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1025 Avgℓobjective: -1869.9891399739683 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.32584611095413935 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 39%|█████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:02 ( 6.38 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1038 Avgℓobjective: -1870.158463238052 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.15388774656444754 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 50%|████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 5.51 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1050 Avgℓobjective: -1869.7686224366382 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.27426107879992284 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 73%|██████████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 4.13 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1073 Avgℓobjective: -1870.056511629024 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.3347814541758833 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:01 ( 3.26 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1099 Avgℓobjective: -1869.9486230551076 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.6034591689537387 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1869.732, variance: 1.325 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1869.949, variance: 1.401 Total number of jittering steps: 117. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.418, 0.076, 0.322, 0.684, 0.928]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.243 │ 0.422 │ 0.044 │ -0.583 │ -0.06 │ 0.252 │ 0.559 │ 1.046 │ 94.139 │ 129.864 │ 1.014 │ │ σ │ 10.037 │ 0.34 │ 0.022 │ 9.4 │ 9.796 │ 10.038 │ 10.279 │ 10.655 │ 242.661 │ 189.737 │ 1.017 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Computing... 57%|██████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 0.44 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1157 Avgℓobjective: -787.5838966933753 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8794613328993099 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:00 ( 0.77 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1199 Avgℓobjective: -788.5307634639648 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8083091362250122 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -788.155, variance: 0.857 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -788.531, variance: 1.558 Total number of jittering steps: 201. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.067, 0.332, 0.625, 0.838, 0.959]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 7.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.017 │ 0.048 │ 0.005 │ -0.076 │ -0.015 │ 0.014 │ 0.053 │ 0.107 │ 95.393 │ 74.252 │ 1.024 │ │ σ │ 1.014 │ 0.028 │ 0.003 │ 0.97 │ 0.993 │ 1.011 │ 1.033 │ 1.075 │ 116.915 │ 82.666 │ 1.019 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Computing... 0%| | ETA: 0:11:26 ( 0.86 s/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1000 Avgℓobjective: -22973.66692718849 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: NaN generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 13%|███▎ | ETA: 0:00:13 (18.08 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1012 Avgℓobjective: -5168.1376392879065 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8788613764867206 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 23%|█████▊ | ETA: 0:00:15 (23.78 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1022 Avgℓobjective: -1869.9597838495692 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.3812465824765526 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 23%|█████▉ | ETA: 0:00:15 (24.00 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 24 logobjective: -1868.1880632246473 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 8.178560005045698e-8 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -1868.3491012334503                         Computing... 24%|██████ | ETA: 0:00:15 (24.31 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1023 Avgℓobjective: -2004.8688789382472 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8730566395960796 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 26%|██████▌ | ETA: 0:00:14 (23.24 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1026 Avgℓobjective: -1869.9626030184786 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8432160988158657 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 27%|██████▊ | ETA: 0:00:13 (22.95 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1027 Avgℓobjective: -1870.6741064430955 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8605508431346363 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 29%|███████▍ | ETA: 0:00:12 (21.86 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 30 logobjective: -1869.0555763807515 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 2.9803183384736847e-12 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1870.6402253454903                         Computing... 31%|███████▊ | ETA: 0:00:12 (21.78 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1030 Avgℓobjective: -1869.2539138564823 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.11615508763720839 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 33%|████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:11 (20.92 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 34 logobjective: -1868.4925000019514 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.3623240930005435 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -1868.5287660978383                         Computing... 35%|████████▋ | ETA: 0:00:11 (20.67 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 35 logobjective: -2411.3519868759167 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.0 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -2411.8480912046807                         Computing... 36%|████████▉ | ETA: 0:00:11 (20.63 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1035 Avgℓobjective: -1923.6391516379526 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.2778052104615296 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 36%|█████████▏ | ETA: 0:00:10 (20.44 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1036 Avgℓobjective: -1887.410059814954 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8583452866119052 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 38%|█████████▍ | ETA: 0:00:10 (20.32 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1037 Avgℓobjective: -1886.8127558422898 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.6560743258615448 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 42%|██████████▍ | ETA: 0:00:09 (18.85 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 42 logobjective: -1868.9957089331187 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 8.315384950790692e-6 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -1869.4747825088625                         Computing... 44%|███████████ | ETA: 0:00:08 (18.24 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 44 logobjective: -1868.136846377392 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.784242286308473e-7 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1868.6618517225015                         Computing... 46%|███████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:08 (17.68 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1045 Avgℓobjective: -1870.263151910331 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.33455650618914573 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 48%|████████████ | ETA: 0:00:07 (17.29 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1047 Avgℓobjective: -1869.3970896332614 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.5687245423611283 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 50%|████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:07 (16.87 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1049 Avgℓobjective: -1869.1898412517633 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.2492331470475288 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 52%|█████████████ | ETA: 0:00:06 (16.54 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1051 Avgℓobjective: -1870.0606049379787 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.5847191967856425 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 55%|█████████████▋ | ETA: 0:00:06 (16.04 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 55 logobjective: -1868.443822514191 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.0035584843226830402 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -1869.6363053780942                         Computing... 57%|██████████████▏ | ETA: 0:00:05 (15.82 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 57 logobjective: -1868.710749597923 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.3550401086791129 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -1869.2135490214469                         Computing... 58%|██████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:05 (15.61 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1058 Avgℓobjective: -1869.527025136268 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.18861949672065043 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 60%|██████████████▉ | ETA: 0:00:05 (15.51 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1059 Avgℓobjective: -1869.206384124955 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.03302149897944792 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 61%|███████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:05 (15.34 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1060 Avgℓobjective: -1870.7392918415903 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.050910315315441934 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 64%|███████████████▉ | ETA: 0:00:04 (15.01 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 64 logobjective: -1867.6946659312698 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.4504879369133269e-8 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1868.104219273206                         Computing... 66%|████████████████▍ | ETA: 0:00:04 (14.75 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 66 logobjective: -1867.7442178725169 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.0058533586147644255 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1867.8533280511072                         Computing... 68%|████████████████▉ | ETA: 0:00:04 (14.67 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1067 Avgℓobjective: -1869.8549492626496 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.13469951115010229 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 69%|█████████████████▏ | ETA: 0:00:04 (14.61 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 69 logobjective: -1867.8932829006712 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.8346416198317794 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1868.389051631616                         Computing... 70%|█████████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:03 (14.46 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1070 Avgℓobjective: -1869.9157093738547 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.18842701747425422 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 72%|██████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:03 (14.29 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1071 Avgℓobjective: -1869.394212150317 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.40655698654095207 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 74%|██████████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:03 (14.13 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1073 Avgℓobjective: -1869.317904720686 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.4004701858258183 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 76%|██████████████████▉ | ETA: 0:00:03 (14.03 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1075 Avgℓobjective: -1869.020283446173 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.0729795935855691 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 77%|███████████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:03 (14.02 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1076 Avgℓobjective: -1869.438614773673 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.3602769975978128 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 78%|███████████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:02 (14.02 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1077 Avgℓobjective: -1869.2234899727487 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.7746124885668124 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 82%|████████████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:02 (13.82 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 82 logobjective: -1868.8668890402373 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.003659407452010451 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -1869.4019818730387                         Computing... 84%|█████████████████████▏ | ETA: 0:00:02 (13.54 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1084 Avgℓobjective: -1870.1280306743984 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.38509664998466286 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 87%|█████████████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:01 (13.42 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 88 logobjective: -1868.2784623820755 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.3356857154679627 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -1868.3939359081448                         Computing... 89%|██████████████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:01 (13.33 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 90 logobjective: -1868.102697018502 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.00046195364483863586 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1868.3799219038438                         Computing... 90%|██████████████████████▋ | ETA: 0:00:01 (13.30 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1090 Avgℓobjective: -1869.6770796002286 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.5107964809226785 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 92%|███████████████████████▏ | ETA: 0:00:01 (13.20 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1092 Avgℓobjective: -1869.1589955992797 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.7576908302782146 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 94%|███████████████████████▋ | ETA: 0:00:01 (13.11 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1094 Avgℓobjective: -1869.3800257312942 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.18115489668063758 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 97%|████████████████████████▎| ETA: 0:00:00 (12.93 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 98 logobjective: -1867.8259386589261 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.022758205788937745 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1867.9664162149925                         Computing... 99%|████████████████████████▊| ETA: 0:00:00 (12.84 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 100 logobjective: -1868.566393956627 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.3953594967027198e-7 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1869.6908662031165                         Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:10 (12.81 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1099 Avgℓobjective: -1869.5014787622765 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.04143695120250035 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -12953.685, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1868.566. NUTS sampler had 39 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 2.033 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.911 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 36, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 3, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -3981.108, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1867.754. NUTS sampler had 41 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.856 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.867 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 37, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 4, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -8673.705, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1868.127. NUTS sampler had 36 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 2.022 (3) number of steps and depth of 0.911 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 33, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 3, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -8959.703, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1869.123. NUTS sampler had 37 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 2.089 (3) number of steps and depth of 0.944 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 33, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 4, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -10426.685, variance: 7.272574302e6 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1871.63, variance: 0.353 Total number of jittering steps: 191. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.409, 0.145, 0.522, 0.72, 0.966]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 8.775]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 2: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -6122.054, variance: 1.5989613485e7 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1869.912, variance: 1.308 Total number of jittering steps: 265. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.326, 0.138, 0.495, 0.782, 0.966]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 3: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -8329.162, variance: 2.612735863e7 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1870.057, variance: 2.694 Total number of jittering steps: 239. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.489, 0.174, 0.561, 0.846, 0.977]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 4: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -6337.598, variance: 2.1188930828e7 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1869.501, variance: 0.572 Total number of jittering steps: 151. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.464, 0.133, 0.575, 0.835, 0.971]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 6.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.266 │ 0.428 │ 0.026 │ -0.533 │ 0.016 │ 0.202 │ 0.56 │ 1.162 │ 290.086 │ 97.004 │ 1.016 │ │ σ │ 9.25 │ 2.391 │ 0.365 │ 2.307 │ 9.675 │ 9.976 │ 10.221 │ 10.769 │ 115.568 │ 56.951 │ 1.04 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Computing... 0%| | ETA: 0:05:40 ( 0.43 s/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1100 Avgℓobjective: -1455.188153204078 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.11253800338883668 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 6%|█▌ | ETA: 0:00:17 (22.34 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1105 Avgℓobjective: -940.7981757561885 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8849970762357542 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 9%|██▎ | ETA: 0:00:12 (16.10 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 109 logobjective: -781.2649380480392 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 3.544622678741007e-5 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -781.5123832025647                         Computing... 15%|███▊ | ETA: 0:00:07 (10.37 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1114 Avgℓobjective: -781.0354579113537 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8613516508972432 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 28%|███████ | ETA: 0:00:03 ( 5.97 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1128 Avgℓobjective: -780.6960747190556 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.3487762581351149 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 42%|██████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:02 ( 4.30 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1142 Avgℓobjective: -780.8217249444803 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.2800146560244494 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 56%|██████████████ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 3.46 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1156 Avgℓobjective: -780.8284111564517 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8529122082734947 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 74%|██████████████████▍ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 2.82 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1173 Avgℓobjective: -781.1534153825767 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8609121750551215 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 91%|██████████████████████▉ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 2.41 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 192 logobjective: -780.2255612031007 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 3.5941619187801293e-71 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -784.3065866176364                         Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:01 ( 2.26 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1199 Avgℓobjective: -780.8554534376754 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.3581336159018975 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -783.872, Avg. final ℓposterior: -780.544. NUTS sampler had 29 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.7 (1) number of steps and depth of 1.0 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 24, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 5, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -780.575, Avg. final ℓposterior: -780.196. NUTS sampler had 28 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.644 (1) number of steps and depth of 1.022 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 22, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 6, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -783.701, Avg. final ℓposterior: -780.206. NUTS sampler had 32 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.778 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.978 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 26, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 6, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -781.244, Avg. final ℓposterior: -780.505. NUTS sampler had 26 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.667 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.989 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 23, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 3, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -799.697, variance: 1339.984 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -781.666, variance: 2.061 Total number of jittering steps: 193. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.41, 0.199, 0.536, 0.798, 0.966]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 8.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 2: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -794.661, variance: 759.6 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -780.469, variance: 0.198 Total number of jittering steps: 121. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.289, 0.155, 0.54, 0.722, 0.957]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 3: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -789.035, variance: 277.561 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -780.76, variance: 0.366 Total number of jittering steps: 158. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.237, 0.267, 0.612, 0.848, 0.96]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 4.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 4: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -781.437, variance: 0.732 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -780.855, variance: 1.268 Total number of jittering steps: 94. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.585, -0.03, 0.253, 0.577, 0.906]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ -0.073 │ 0.041 │ 0.002 │ -0.15 │ -0.103 │ -0.077 │ -0.042 │ 0.006 │ 280.196 │ 299.249 │ 1.001 │ │ σ │ 0.999 │ 0.034 │ 0.002 │ 0.942 │ 0.981 │ 0.999 │ 1.021 │ 1.051 │ 239.341 │ 259.2 │ 1.012 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Computing... 0%|▏ | ETA: 0:04:26 ( 0.67 s/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 1 logobjective: -1868.1259984399285 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.25017795818851435 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -1868.5039789215746                         Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:01 ( 4.17 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 100 logobjective: -2044.0363103256977 Temperature: 0.5460980646457352 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9999354448413731 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 127 ℓH: -2044.5970601027022 Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1885.976, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2040.15. NUTS sampler had 22 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 18.689 (127) number of steps and depth of 2.122 (6). Divergences in: Warmup: 22, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1886.578, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2042.236. NUTS sampler had 27 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 15.611 (31) number of steps and depth of 2.089 (5). Divergences in: Warmup: 27, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1886.002, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2040.588. NUTS sampler had 29 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 20.589 (15) number of steps and depth of 2.111 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 29, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1885.84, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2044.036. NUTS sampler had 16 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 34.844 (127) number of steps and depth of 2.367 (6). Divergences in: Warmup: 16, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.208 │ 0.302 │ 0.068 │ -0.331 │ 0.055 │ 0.203 │ 0.296 │ 1.022 │ 15.415 │ 21.588 │ 1.263 │ │ σ │ 10.049 │ 0.307 │ 0.054 │ 9.586 │ 9.849 │ 9.995 │ 10.259 │ 10.626 │ 40.749 │ 20.094 │ 1.109 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Computing... 0%|▏ | ETA: 0:02:12 ( 0.33 s/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 101 logobjective: -2041.8451445979915 Temperature: 0.5465413282544795 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9997426135173805 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 111 ℓH: -2042.9628712872404                         Computing... 10%|██▌ | ETA: 0:00:07 (19.66 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 110 logobjective: -2056.4119497566917 Temperature: 0.5505112720162764 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9993020567336105 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 17 ℓH: -2057.275011530453                         Computing... 19%|████▊ | ETA: 0:00:04 (11.79 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 119 logobjective: -2071.509725607885 Temperature: 0.554446459681313 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9999805767495747 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 95 ℓH: -2071.7122954029883                         Computing... 39%|█████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:02 ( 6.37 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 140 logobjective: -2106.0334175272883 Temperature: 0.5634951058932551 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9997166271918676 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 15 ℓH: -2106.1851024622188                         Computing... 71%|█████████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 3.89 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 171 logobjective: -2154.596239697619 Temperature: 0.5765178526051888 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9993519348588868 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 15 ℓH: -2156.953074266671                         Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:01 ( 2.98 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 200 logobjective: -2199.555211194648 Temperature: 0.5883484625830675 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9868989599222585 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 23 ℓH: -2200.492433211325 Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2058.772, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2201.15. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 19.6 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.667 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2059.377, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2197.999. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 21.467 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.644 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2059.128, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2199.59. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 33.489 (3) number of steps and depth of 4.189 (2). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2058.129, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2199.555. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 35.911 (23) number of steps and depth of 4.089 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.311 │ 0.38 │ 0.037 │ -0.465 │ 0.069 │ 0.301 │ 0.508 │ 1.142 │ 112.346 │ 85.324 │ 1.018 │ │ σ │ 10.048 │ 0.289 │ 0.022 │ 9.536 │ 9.855 │ 10.04 │ 10.25 │ 10.643 │ 174.746 │ 193.803 │ 1.014 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Computing... 0%|▏ | ETA: 0:02:19 ( 0.35 s/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1000 Avgℓobjective: -1869.1138320694351 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.7306022417320018 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 26%|██████▍ | ETA: 0:00:02 ( 8.07 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1025 Avgℓobjective: -1914.6317266609885 Temperature: 0.5120650453944637 ESS: 3.999999792735914 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.579365421444566 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 46%|███████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 5.70 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1045 Avgℓobjective: -1950.025391397898 Temperature: 0.5215071279810213 ESS: 3.999998636718204 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.08023326155781413 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 55%|█████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 5.22 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1054 Avgℓobjective: -1965.5619226010147 Temperature: 0.5256962413681878 ESS: 3.9999980993328137 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.18631696849459284 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 74%|██████████████████▋ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 4.19 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1074 Avgℓobjective: -1999.6472847615532 Temperature: 0.534874545193001 ESS: 3.9999990804725183 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.010562654170621966 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 94%|███████████████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 3.60 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1093 Avgℓobjective: -2031.7858968741195 Temperature: 0.5434293689013447 ESS: 3.9999959575462936 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.33971670609685534 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:01 ( 3.46 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1099 Avgℓobjective: -2043.3361829315572 Temperature: 0.5460980646457352 ESS: 3.9999999407483733 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.4759801679191281 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1887.914, variance: 0.14 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -2043.336, variance: 6.201 Total number of jittering steps: 120. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.421, 0.008, 0.354, 0.742, 0.974]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.775]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.275 │ 0.357 │ 0.035 │ -0.439 │ 0.05 │ 0.3 │ 0.538 │ 0.889 │ 110.101 │ 99.456 │ 1.046 │ │ σ │ 10.046 │ 0.306 │ 0.018 │ 9.47 │ 9.808 │ 10.048 │ 10.253 │ 10.652 │ 269.321 │ 175.906 │ 1.026 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Computing... 52%|████████████▉ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 0.49 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1151 Avgℓobjective: -891.5097626038054 Temperature: 0.5685830121493418 ESS: 3.99999901004946 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.07846207212673126 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:00 ( 1.18 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1199 Avgℓobjective: -922.2384485679237 Temperature: 0.5883484625830675 ESS: 3.9999982426125498 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.11059342999140956 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -864.827, variance: 2.741 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -922.238, variance: 0.106 Total number of jittering steps: 226. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.455, 0.104, 0.432, 0.769, 1.0]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ -0.009 │ 0.042 │ 0.003 │ -0.089 │ -0.033 │ -0.007 │ 0.017 │ 0.078 │ 146.136 │ 140.362 │ 1.061 │ │ σ │ 1.0 │ 0.03 │ 0.003 │ 0.947 │ 0.975 │ 0.999 │ 1.021 │ 1.06 │ 97.542 │ 74.518 │ 1.098 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Computing... 0%| | ETA: 0:11:07 ( 0.84 s/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1000 Avgℓobjective: -24126.353531121742 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: NaN generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 16%|████ | ETA: 0:00:14 (20.79 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1016 Avgℓobjective: -1916.1774040455982 Temperature: 0.5077555394856328 ESS: 3.677280495040571 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9520904461675834 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 18%|████▌ | ETA: 0:00:14 (21.11 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1017 Avgℓobjective: -2916.088044633457 Temperature: 0.5082362469666039 ESS: 3.9957545208918512 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9592215457212435 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 21%|█████▎ | ETA: 0:00:16 (25.77 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1020 Avgℓobjective: -2107.0992544419046 Temperature: 0.5096755545974264 ESS: 3.4933412339718095 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.578931137961676 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 22%|█████▌ | ETA: 0:00:19 (31.15 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 22 logobjective: -2357.71931917721 Temperature: 0.5101543870636398 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.0 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -2358.4492763920357                         Computing... 23%|█████▊ | ETA: 0:00:19 (30.79 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1022 Avgℓobjective: -2158.2359697606007 Temperature: 0.510632751920023 ESS: 3.801224348445699 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.3558318698320925 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 24%|█████▉ | ETA: 0:00:19 (30.77 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1023 Avgℓobjective: -1912.0310706854261 Temperature: 0.511110649623226 ESS: 3.9999997306278465 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8126960494758768 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 24%|██████▏ | ETA: 0:00:18 (30.46 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1024 Avgℓobjective: -1912.9693650114073 Temperature: 0.5115880806294534 ESS: 3.9999986809856307 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9481232040122038 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 25%|██████▎ | ETA: 0:00:18 (30.61 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1024 Avgℓobjective: -2048.7775228163327 Temperature: 0.5115880806294534 ESS: 3.860937274735269 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9651056119124091 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 29%|███████▎ | ETA: 0:00:17 (29.54 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1028 Avgℓobjective: -1920.0065553937864 Temperature: 0.5134931467931065 ESS: 3.99999876813299 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.10427408260412124 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 32%|███████▉ | ETA: 0:00:15 (27.29 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 32 logobjective: -1925.4290161360516 Temperature: 0.514917068385434 accepted: true acceptancerate: 3.7540496110629086e-94 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1926.293059796623                         Computing... 36%|█████████ | ETA: 0:00:13 (24.49 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1035 Avgℓobjective: -1933.1568723278965 Temperature: 0.5168091497268879 ESS: 3.999994405051307 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9463561294247886 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 42%|██████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:10 (21.29 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1041 Avgℓobjective: -1943.1167588065045 Temperature: 0.5196334430081913 ESS: 3.9999988161533007 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.20801338961541585 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 50%|████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:07 (18.06 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1049 Avgℓobjective: -1956.6683065099432 Temperature: 0.5233735045862593 ESS: 3.999999253422212 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.15994093906731577 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 57%|██████████████▍ | ETA: 0:00:05 (16.00 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 58 logobjective: -1970.0422173030913 Temperature: 0.5270844466088458 accepted: true acceptancerate: 3.975230497445624e-13 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -1970.2196981897093                         Computing... 64%|███████████████▉ | ETA: 0:00:04 (14.68 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1063 Avgℓobjective: -1981.5227837405478 Temperature: 0.5298486798705302 ESS: 3.9999946963535264 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.13010046449245577 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 70%|█████████████████▍ | ETA: 0:00:03 (13.61 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1069 Avgℓobjective: -1991.7261719014607 Temperature: 0.5325967559441706 ESS: 3.9999987072404735 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.7038472789466493 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 76%|██████████████████▉ | ETA: 0:00:02 (12.67 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 76 logobjective: -1999.8531345605886 Temperature: 0.535328769269961 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.024769240574374424 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -2002.0004613192584                         Computing... 82%|████████████████████▍ | ETA: 0:00:02 (11.90 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 82 logobjective: -2010.113633580784 Temperature: 0.5380448137360843 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.0003320443909967048 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -2010.3584031012874                         Computing... 88%|██████████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:01 (11.15 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1088 Avgℓobjective: -2022.8715603389005 Temperature: 0.5411934739097883 ESS: 3.999999622301817 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8029649021466925 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 95%|███████████████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:00 (10.53 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 95 logobjective: -2033.0948568304548 Temperature: 0.543875238658277 accepted: true acceptancerate: 5.417627796597945e-45 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -2034.1627266039516                         Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:08 (10.12 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1099 Avgℓobjective: -2041.451788801196 Temperature: 0.5460980646457352 ESS: 3.9999998502975127 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8075792018177325 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -5178.822, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2039.855. NUTS sampler had 30 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 2.1 (3) number of steps and depth of 0.956 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 28, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 2, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -8730.038, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2039.972. NUTS sampler had 29 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 2.133 (6) number of steps and depth of 1.0 (2). Divergences in: Warmup: 28, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 1, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -6330.262, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2040.178. NUTS sampler had 36 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 2.056 (7) number of steps and depth of 0.978 (2). Divergences in: Warmup: 31, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 5, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -6549.108, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2039.921. NUTS sampler had 36 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.711 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.867 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 33, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 3, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -5052.002, variance: 2.231030527e6 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -2041.752, variance: 0.618 Total number of jittering steps: 137. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.266, 0.248, 0.557, 0.762, 0.975]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 6.55]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.229, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 2: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -7488.147, variance: 402225.899 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -2042.68, variance: 2.452 Total number of jittering steps: 151. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.275, 0.165, 0.55, 0.744, 0.967]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 5.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.42, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 3: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -5683.811, variance: 2.837471615e6 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -2042.067, variance: 0.741 Total number of jittering steps: 179. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.302, 0.213, 0.562, 0.785, 0.958]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 6.775]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.446, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 4: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -6504.139, variance: 114464.623 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -2041.452, variance: 0.054 Total number of jittering steps: 219. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.524, 0.054, 0.398, 0.798, 0.973]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.253, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.224 │ 0.397 │ 0.04 │ -0.491 │ -0.031 │ 0.215 │ 0.484 │ 1.012 │ 113.829 │ 147.77 │ 1.051 │ │ σ │ 9.706 │ 2.796 │ 0.234 │ 3.41 │ 9.735 │ 9.986 │ 10.212 │ 10.627 │ 114.527 │ 43.327 │ 1.027 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Computing... 0%| | ETA: 0:05:30 ( 0.41 s/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1100 Avgℓobjective: -1146.324842775106 Temperature: 0.5465413282544795 ESS: 3.9999987773896986 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.18933763336825563 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 12%|███▏ | ETA: 0:00:06 ( 9.27 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1112 Avgℓobjective: -864.7782176721264 Temperature: 0.551826847945094 ESS: 3.999993367578859 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.4286530856780291 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 27%|██████▊ | ETA: 0:00:03 ( 4.76 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1126 Avgℓobjective: -873.3269803990702 Temperature: 0.5579154723610332 ESS: 3.999998488373489 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.03018306506813813 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 42%|██████████▋ | ETA: 0:00:02 ( 3.33 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 143 logobjective: -883.0654627852538 Temperature: 0.5647726803812159 accepted: true acceptancerate: 6.529608642325242e-6 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -883.7043214825759                         Computing... 58%|██████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 2.66 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1157 Avgℓobjective: -894.3849113197341 Temperature: 0.5711046826228988 ESS: 3.9999986726169796 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8339853242377768 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 74%|██████████████████▍ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 2.26 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 174 logobjective: -903.8379926466886 Temperature: 0.5777573117611409 accepted: true acceptancerate: 3.613141312036581e-5 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -903.9810482767                         Computing... 89%|██████████████████████▍ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 2.05 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 190 logobjective: -914.2819919408082 Temperature: 0.5843067514434531 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.3333333333333333 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -914.3815515088288                         Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:01 ( 1.92 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1199 Avgℓobjective: -920.6526910343398 Temperature: 0.5883484625830675 ESS: 3.999999455881023 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.34237208087756976 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -862.338, Avg. final ℓposterior: -922.399. NUTS sampler had 34 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.767 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.978 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 27, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 7, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -863.163, Avg. final ℓposterior: -923.97. NUTS sampler had 36 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.711 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.989 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 31, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 5, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -869.256, Avg. final ℓposterior: -919.903. NUTS sampler had 29 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.567 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.967 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 23, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 6, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -861.543, Avg. final ℓposterior: -920.379. NUTS sampler had 49 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.844 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.944 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 42, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 7, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -862.919, variance: 2.474 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -920.467, variance: 0.849 Total number of jittering steps: 106. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.441, 0.14, 0.45, 0.672, 0.962]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 2: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -862.703, variance: 0.352 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -921.865, variance: 3.238 Total number of jittering steps: 97. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.687, -0.008, 0.269, 0.569, 0.931]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 3: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -863.255, variance: 5.663 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -920.483, variance: 0.489 Total number of jittering steps: 120. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.665, 0.039, 0.352, 0.735, 0.925]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 4: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -861.968, variance: 0.131 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -920.653, variance: 0.638 Total number of jittering steps: 207. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.61, -0.045, 0.42, 0.781, 0.974]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ -0.033 │ 0.041 │ 0.003 │ -0.116 │ -0.061 │ -0.032 │ -0.003 │ 0.043 │ 222.887 │ 231.526 │ 1.011 │ │ σ │ 1.002 │ 0.031 │ 0.002 │ 0.943 │ 0.979 │ 1.0 │ 1.024 │ 1.059 │ 229.834 │ 289.027 │ 1.014 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -382.679, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2253.102. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 15.092 (23) number of steps and depth of 3.308 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -383.528, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2253.507. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 15.572 (23) number of steps and depth of 3.36 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -383.993, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2253.653. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 14.756 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.262 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -384.153, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2253.756. NUTS sampler had 1 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 15.524 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.352 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 1, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.181 │ 0.536 │ 0.032 │ -0.927 │ -0.175 │ 0.202 │ 0.531 │ 1.185 │ 299.283 │ 249.612 │ 1.024 │ │ σ │ 10.308 │ 0.507 │ 0.052 │ 9.116 │ 10.038 │ 10.332 │ 10.618 │ 11.208 │ 111.471 │ 83.876 │ 1.025 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 400. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 400 Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2258.211, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.639. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 16.13 (7) number of steps and depth of 3.445 (2). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2257.081, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3737.115. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 18.125 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.592 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2256.878, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3736.134. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 15.385 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.4 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2256.693, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.522. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 14.62 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.342 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.181 │ 0.358 │ 0.024 │ -0.515 │ -0.076 │ 0.189 │ 0.424 │ 0.905 │ 217.664 │ 335.817 │ 1.026 │ │ σ │ 10.094 │ 0.281 │ 0.043 │ 9.594 │ 9.89 │ 10.083 │ 10.281 │ 10.704 │ 43.749 │ 602.8 │ 1.064 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -386.829, variance: 3.98 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -2256.246, variance: 0.57 Total number of jittering steps: 545. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.622, 0.06, 0.358, 0.669, 0.92]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.869, 3.988, 3.995, 3.998, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.191 │ 0.541 │ 0.035 │ -0.966 │ -0.139 │ 0.223 │ 0.563 │ 1.185 │ 253.726 │ 302.163 │ 1.028 │ │ σ │ 10.323 │ 0.519 │ 0.05 │ 9.046 │ 10.058 │ 10.352 │ 10.629 │ 11.261 │ 124.543 │ 90.461 │ 1.035 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1934.497, variance: 457.537 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1569.273, variance: 1.06 Total number of jittering steps: 562. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.783, 0.009, 0.368, 0.69, 0.934]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.939, 3.994, 3.998, 3.999, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.086 │ 0.068 │ 0.003 │ -0.001 │ 0.057 │ 0.083 │ 0.107 │ 0.162 │ 48.63 │ 381.837 │ 1.062 │ │ σ │ 1.082 │ 0.728 │ 0.04 │ 0.949 │ 0.986 │ 1.003 │ 1.021 │ 1.06 │ 775.443 │ 642.105 │ 1.015 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel SMC2Kernel Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 97.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -158.388, variance: 4.156 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -972.338, variance: 1.3 Total number of jittering steps: 89. Rejuvenations on average every 33.333 step, every 20.833 steps in first half, every 83.333 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.336, -0.117, 0.011, 0.168, 0.562]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.35, 4.0, 6.0, 9.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [2.977, 3.426, 3.682, 3.877, 3.988] for 4 chains. ┌────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ1 │ -0.323 │ 0.836 │ 0.236 │ -2.22 │ -0.635 │ -0.273 │ 0.262 │ 0.912 │ 10.778 │ 46.267 │ 1.291 │ │ μ2 │ 1.953 │ 0.091 │ 0.014 │ 1.765 │ 1.886 │ 1.945 │ 2.027 │ 2.102 │ 38.335 │ 30.142 │ 1.261 │ │ σ1 │ 2.004 │ 0.497 │ 0.076 │ 1.414 │ 1.79 │ 1.933 │ 2.151 │ 3.089 │ 34.574 │ 33.927 │ 1.082 │ │ σ2 │ 0.985 │ 0.061 │ 0.01 │ 0.839 │ 0.96 │ 0.981 │ 1.028 │ 1.106 │ 31.678 │ 45.277 │ 1.17 │ │ p1 │ 0.136 │ 0.049 │ 0.018 │ 0.057 │ 0.095 │ 0.132 │ 0.177 │ 0.24 │ 8.033 │ 51.341 │ 1.454 │ │ p2 │ 0.864 │ 0.049 │ 0.018 │ 0.76 │ 0.823 │ 0.868 │ 0.905 │ 0.943 │ 8.033 │ 20.781 │ 1.454 │ └────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel SMC2Kernel Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 98.6%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -975.086, variance: 1.418 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1587.685, variance: 1.246 Total number of jittering steps: 60. Rejuvenations on average every 71.429 step, every 50.0 steps in first half, every 125.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [0.031, 0.36, 0.454, 0.494, 0.757]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [3.6, 8.5, 10.0, 10.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.077, 3.353, 3.653, 3.805, 3.976] for 4 chains. ┌────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ1 │ -0.075 │ 0.117 │ 0.028 │ -0.286 │ -0.127 │ -0.073 │ -0.041 │ 0.21 │ 19.997 │ 21.871 │ 1.166 │ │ μ2 │ 0.804 │ 0.537 │ 0.22 │ -0.221 │ 0.289 │ 0.776 │ 1.25 │ 1.889 │ 5.986 │ 8.815 │ 1.809 │ │ σ1 │ 0.984 │ 0.145 │ 0.021 │ 0.834 │ 0.91 │ 0.96 │ 1.043 │ 1.079 │ 9.369 │ 38.388 │ 1.376 │ │ σ2 │ 0.94 │ 0.087 │ 0.022 │ 0.817 │ 0.851 │ 0.925 │ 0.994 │ 1.096 │ 14.796 │ NaN │ 1.294 │ │ p1 │ 0.782 │ 0.125 │ 0.027 │ 0.55 │ 0.738 │ 0.802 │ 0.861 │ 0.914 │ 9.67 │ NaN │ 1.333 │ │ p2 │ 0.218 │ 0.125 │ 0.027 │ 0.086 │ 0.139 │ 0.198 │ 0.262 │ 0.45 │ 9.67 │ 10.794 │ 1.333 │ └────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -111.004, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2253.041. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 15.252 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.344 (5). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -110.669, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2253.044. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 15.624 (19) number of steps and depth of 3.356 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -111.115, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2253.771. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 15.62 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.336 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -110.614, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2253.026. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.624 (7) number of steps and depth of 3.468 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.225 │ 0.541 │ 0.032 │ -0.841 │ -0.115 │ 0.219 │ 0.553 │ 1.329 │ 289.952 │ 381.955 │ 1.03 │ │ σ │ 10.315 │ 0.534 │ 0.053 │ 9.025 │ 10.034 │ 10.331 │ 10.658 │ 11.284 │ 120.301 │ 80.088 │ 1.039 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 400. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 400 Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -652.4, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.876. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 15.35 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.37 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -652.592, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.681. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.895 (19) number of steps and depth of 3.52 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -652.279, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3737.594. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.1 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.535 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -652.692, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3737.473. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.52 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.475 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.143 │ 0.348 │ 0.024 │ -0.552 │ -0.082 │ 0.146 │ 0.362 │ 0.873 │ 211.032 │ 238.41 │ 1.01 │ │ σ │ 10.091 │ 0.284 │ 0.039 │ 9.571 │ 9.899 │ 10.073 │ 10.269 │ 10.693 │ 55.002 │ 534.63 │ 1.057 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -111.414, variance: 0.028 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -2255.928, variance: 0.204 Total number of jittering steps: 533. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.601, -0.018, 0.293, 0.659, 0.94]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.896, 3.988, 3.995, 3.998, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.204 │ 0.559 │ 0.04 │ -0.88 │ -0.169 │ 0.186 │ 0.559 │ 1.324 │ 184.205 │ 426.84 │ 1.023 │ │ σ │ 10.288 │ 0.529 │ 0.05 │ 9.143 │ 9.997 │ 10.307 │ 10.607 │ 11.263 │ 123.353 │ 93.784 │ 1.029 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -553.326, variance: 128.556 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1560.208, variance: 0.473 Total number of jittering steps: 651. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.594, -0.001, 0.389, 0.701, 0.945]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 4.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.956, 3.996, 3.998, 3.999, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.021 │ 0.066 │ 0.002 │ -0.052 │ -0.002 │ 0.023 │ 0.046 │ 0.09 │ 167.631 │ 456.364 │ 1.038 │ │ σ │ 1.076 │ 0.681 │ 0.039 │ 0.956 │ 0.989 │ 1.008 │ 1.031 │ 1.099 │ 14.676 │ 106.854 │ 1.187 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel SMC2Kernel Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 96.8%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -45.835, variance: 0.188 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -971.145, variance: 1.644 Total number of jittering steps: 93. Rejuvenations on average every 31.25 step, every 19.231 steps in first half, every 83.333 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.217, -0.093, 0.029, 0.249, 0.572]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.375, 3.75, 5.5, 8.5, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [2.984, 3.458, 3.66, 3.824, 3.992] for 4 chains. ┌────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ1 │ -0.696 │ 0.882 │ 0.215 │ -2.821 │ -1.092 │ -0.778 │ -0.028 │ 0.841 │ 23.115 │ 12.23 │ 1.312 │ │ μ2 │ 1.924 │ 0.065 │ 0.012 │ 1.816 │ 1.874 │ 1.908 │ 1.962 │ 2.083 │ 30.941 │ 52.577 │ 1.084 │ │ σ1 │ 1.889 │ 0.645 │ 0.181 │ 1.054 │ 1.485 │ 1.768 │ 2.044 │ 3.044 │ 7.806 │ 11.605 │ 1.452 │ │ σ2 │ 0.992 │ 0.069 │ 0.017 │ 0.874 │ 0.939 │ 0.996 │ 1.02 │ 1.15 │ 13.686 │ NaN │ 1.231 │ │ p1 │ 0.109 │ 0.036 │ 0.009 │ 0.053 │ 0.085 │ 0.111 │ 0.121 │ 0.189 │ 16.339 │ 18.177 │ 1.223 │ │ p2 │ 0.891 │ 0.036 │ 0.009 │ 0.811 │ 0.879 │ 0.889 │ 0.915 │ 0.947 │ 16.339 │ 56.762 │ 1.223 │ └────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel SMC2Kernel Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 98.2%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -281.856, variance: 0.212 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1560.447, variance: 2.922 Total number of jittering steps: 70. Rejuvenations on average every 55.556 step, every 35.714 steps in first half, every 125.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.343, -0.108, 0.617, 0.929, 0.946]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.4, 6.0, 10.0, 10.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.047, 3.387, 3.676, 3.874, 3.991] for 4 chains. ┌────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ1 │ -0.481 │ 0.142 │ 0.059 │ -0.679 │ -0.633 │ -0.445 │ -0.351 │ -0.225 │ 6.428 │ 17.865 │ 1.776 │ │ μ2 │ 0.796 │ 0.218 │ 0.083 │ 0.478 │ 0.609 │ 0.804 │ 0.967 │ 1.164 │ 7.283 │ 22.297 │ 1.524 │ │ σ1 │ 0.777 │ 0.075 │ 0.02 │ 0.687 │ 0.714 │ 0.78 │ 0.835 │ 0.905 │ 10.08 │ 19.35 │ 1.389 │ │ σ2 │ 0.757 │ 0.077 │ 0.028 │ 0.625 │ 0.72 │ 0.741 │ 0.795 │ 0.921 │ 6.228 │ 9.312 │ 1.777 │ │ p1 │ 0.599 │ 0.122 │ 0.049 │ 0.431 │ 0.474 │ 0.645 │ 0.716 │ 0.788 │ 6.971 │ 17.614 │ 1.645 │ │ p2 │ 0.401 │ 0.122 │ 0.049 │ 0.212 │ 0.284 │ 0.355 │ 0.526 │ 0.569 │ 6.971 │ 10.202 │ 1.645 │ └────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -191.383, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1126.935. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.812 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.52 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -191.484, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1126.896. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 16.876 (7) number of steps and depth of 3.486 (2). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -191.351, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1127.348. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 16.784 (7) number of steps and depth of 3.446 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -194.109, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1126.555. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.224 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.462 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.209 │ 0.721 │ 0.05 │ -1.161 │ -0.281 │ 0.207 │ 0.698 │ 1.591 │ 212.469 │ 554.496 │ 1.013 │ │ σ │ 10.351 │ 0.646 │ 0.055 │ 8.955 │ 9.98 │ 10.359 │ 10.747 │ 11.585 │ 154.01 │ 84.93 │ 1.033 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 400. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 400 Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1128.317, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1868.94. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 16.14 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.455 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1129.522, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1873.406. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 14.2 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.305 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1128.321, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1868.269. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 15.51 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.402 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1128.285, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1868.842. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 15.695 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.402 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.152 │ 0.491 │ 0.027 │ -0.776 │ -0.177 │ 0.169 │ 0.462 │ 1.108 │ 353.851 │ 416.429 │ 1.015 │ │ σ │ 10.104 │ 0.373 │ 0.029 │ 9.4 │ 9.853 │ 10.08 │ 10.347 │ 10.863 │ 190.712 │ 772.07 │ 1.027 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -193.287, variance: 0.111 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1128.993, variance: 0.646 Total number of jittering steps: 541. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.558, 0.03, 0.371, 0.664, 0.939]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.934, 3.994, 3.998, 3.999, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.154 │ 0.747 │ 0.043 │ -1.452 │ -0.309 │ 0.197 │ 0.668 │ 1.54 │ 307.26 │ 407.431 │ 1.026 │ │ σ │ 10.36 │ 0.67 │ 0.051 │ 8.771 │ 10.005 │ 10.378 │ 10.76 │ 11.636 │ 199.001 │ 98.323 │ 1.037 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -802.039, variance: 35301.894 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -774.329, variance: 2.253 Total number of jittering steps: 558. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.628, -0.016, 0.341, 0.664, 0.908]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.97, 3.997, 3.999, 3.999, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.023 │ 0.057 │ 0.003 │ -0.074 │ -0.013 │ 0.021 │ 0.057 │ 0.125 │ 252.679 │ 627.963 │ 1.026 │ │ σ │ 1.0 │ 0.291 │ 0.009 │ 0.909 │ 0.96 │ 0.984 │ 1.008 │ 1.069 │ 596.68 │ 399.207 │ 1.018 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel SMC2Kernel Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 98.6%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -82.632, variance: 21.676 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -486.137, variance: 1.118 Total number of jittering steps: 49. Rejuvenations on average every 71.429 step, every 41.667 steps in first half, every 250.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.283, -0.11, 0.148, 0.181, 0.228]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [5.0, 5.5, 6.0, 8.5, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.074, 3.5, 3.706, 3.868, 3.994] for 4 chains. ┌────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ1 │ -0.95 │ 1.292 │ 0.346 │ -3.774 │ -1.293 │ -0.809 │ -0.049 │ 0.468 │ 12.873 │ 21.982 │ 1.448 │ │ μ2 │ 1.926 │ 0.1 │ 0.029 │ 1.622 │ 1.896 │ 1.945 │ 1.98 │ 2.038 │ 14.934 │ 18.859 │ 1.437 │ │ σ1 │ 2.023 │ 0.987 │ 0.191 │ 0.994 │ 1.511 │ 1.759 │ 2.103 │ 5.885 │ 30.544 │ 38.903 │ 1.434 │ │ σ2 │ 0.996 │ 0.075 │ 0.011 │ 0.867 │ 0.952 │ 0.982 │ 1.01 │ 1.144 │ 39.974 │ 36.13 │ 1.391 │ │ p1 │ 0.103 │ 0.045 │ 0.015 │ 0.016 │ 0.063 │ 0.111 │ 0.128 │ 0.188 │ 10.048 │ 38.32 │ 1.356 │ │ p2 │ 0.897 │ 0.045 │ 0.015 │ 0.812 │ 0.872 │ 0.889 │ 0.937 │ 0.984 │ 10.048 │ 14.412 │ 1.356 │ └────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel SMC2Kernel Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 98.4%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -486.785, variance: 1.106 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -786.107, variance: 3.216 Total number of jittering steps: 80. Rejuvenations on average every 62.5 step, every 35.714 steps in first half, every 250.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [0.108, 0.18, 0.743, 0.892, 0.995]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [10.0, 10.0, 10.0, 10.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.037, 3.42, 3.7, 3.936, 3.995] for 4 chains. ┌────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ1 │ -0.147 │ 0.192 │ 0.045 │ -0.69 │ -0.186 │ -0.127 │ -0.081 │ 0.343 │ 11.985 │ 14.395 │ 1.239 │ │ μ2 │ 1.303 │ 0.524 │ 0.22 │ 0.439 │ 0.891 │ 1.61 │ 1.749 │ 1.98 │ 7.133 │ NaN │ 1.67 │ │ σ1 │ 1.043 │ 0.306 │ 0.055 │ 0.755 │ 0.917 │ 0.943 │ 1.009 │ 2.103 │ 32.222 │ 17.017 │ 1.563 │ │ σ2 │ 1.155 │ 0.189 │ 0.041 │ 0.781 │ 0.982 │ 1.248 │ 1.268 │ 1.442 │ 19.344 │ 10.675 │ 1.179 │ │ p1 │ 0.715 │ 0.27 │ 0.086 │ 0.111 │ 0.692 │ 0.799 │ 0.922 │ 0.969 │ 7.477 │ NaN │ 1.493 │ │ p2 │ 0.285 │ 0.27 │ 0.086 │ 0.031 │ 0.078 │ 0.201 │ 0.308 │ 0.889 │ 7.477 │ 9.362 │ 1.493 │ └────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -191.383, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1563.149. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 16.924 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.452 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -192.231, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1561.608. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 13.96 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.26 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -196.016, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1562.279. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 15.8 (23) number of steps and depth of 3.38 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -191.59, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1561.289. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 14.896 (23) number of steps and depth of 3.316 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.229 │ 0.697 │ 0.033 │ -1.152 │ -0.198 │ 0.247 │ 0.65 │ 1.6 │ 444.527 │ 496.32 │ 1.044 │ │ σ │ 10.337 │ 0.633 │ 0.055 │ 8.859 │ 10.0 │ 10.338 │ 10.713 │ 11.568 │ 156.273 │ 86.143 │ 1.054 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 400. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 400 Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1564.529, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3105.465. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 14.88 (7) number of steps and depth of 3.392 (2). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1564.307, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3106.458. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 14.515 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.332 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1564.512, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3107.165. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 15.745 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.42 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1564.812, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3105.582. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 14.33 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.332 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.146 │ 0.427 │ 0.026 │ -0.762 │ -0.116 │ 0.148 │ 0.432 │ 0.97 │ 283.49 │ 316.048 │ 1.017 │ │ σ │ 10.086 │ 0.296 │ 0.026 │ 9.557 │ 9.889 │ 10.074 │ 10.281 │ 10.709 │ 145.866 │ 495.055 │ 1.038 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -193.907, variance: 0.947 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1564.105, variance: 0.929 Total number of jittering steps: 529. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.624, -0.005, 0.317, 0.613, 0.929]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.933, 3.994, 3.997, 3.999, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.175 │ 0.685 │ 0.038 │ -1.339 │ -0.246 │ 0.207 │ 0.629 │ 1.398 │ 366.521 │ 301.923 │ 1.031 │ │ σ │ 10.319 │ 0.634 │ 0.049 │ 8.977 │ 9.974 │ 10.34 │ 10.689 │ 11.57 │ 176.398 │ 88.909 │ 1.047 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1274.41, variance: 8167.121 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1361.256, variance: 0.883 Total number of jittering steps: 629. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.692, 0.042, 0.413, 0.73, 0.96]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.948, 3.996, 3.998, 3.999, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ -0.036 │ 0.05 │ 0.002 │ -0.121 │ -0.063 │ -0.035 │ -0.008 │ 0.041 │ 199.72 │ 640.749 │ 1.04 │ │ σ │ 1.045 │ 0.364 │ 0.012 │ 0.966 │ 1.003 │ 1.023 │ 1.043 │ 1.094 │ 214.22 │ 371.196 │ 1.026 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel SMC2Kernel Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 98.2%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -82.927, variance: 14.317 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -673.735, variance: 5.958 Total number of jittering steps: 55. Rejuvenations on average every 55.556 step, every 35.714 steps in first half, every 125.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.078, 0.012, 0.103, 0.235, 0.835]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [2.0, 3.0, 5.0, 10.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.031, 3.37, 3.716, 3.888, 3.996] for 4 chains. ┌────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ1 │ -1.637 │ 1.496 │ 0.464 │ -6.448 │ -2.345 │ -1.586 │ -0.46 │ 0.623 │ 9.86 │ 25.978 │ 1.358 │ │ μ2 │ 1.913 │ 0.109 │ 0.03 │ 1.644 │ 1.829 │ 1.929 │ 2.001 │ 2.076 │ 12.256 │ 42.188 │ 1.32 │ │ σ1 │ 2.069 │ 1.159 │ 0.244 │ 0.972 │ 1.417 │ 1.718 │ 2.101 │ 5.849 │ 25.203 │ 33.702 │ 1.142 │ │ σ2 │ 1.019 │ 0.079 │ 0.013 │ 0.916 │ 0.968 │ 1.013 │ 1.044 │ 1.258 │ 29.94 │ 22.405 │ 1.137 │ │ p1 │ 0.084 │ 0.039 │ 0.012 │ 0.013 │ 0.059 │ 0.087 │ 0.116 │ 0.156 │ 12.647 │ 17.486 │ 1.355 │ │ p2 │ 0.916 │ 0.039 │ 0.012 │ 0.844 │ 0.884 │ 0.913 │ 0.941 │ 0.987 │ 12.647 │ 22.574 │ 1.355 │ └────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel SMC2Kernel Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 98.6%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -675.926, variance: 6.08 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1342.585, variance: 3.101 Total number of jittering steps: 59. Rejuvenations on average every 71.429 step, every 35.714 steps in first half, every Inf steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [0.265, 0.477, 0.8, 0.898, 0.997]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [2.05, 9.0, 10.0, 10.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.081, 3.427, 3.686, 3.821, 3.985] for 4 chains. ┌────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ1 │ -0.138 │ 0.312 │ 0.064 │ -0.547 │ -0.144 │ -0.058 │ -0.042 │ 0.05 │ 5.817 │ NaN │ 1.855 │ │ μ2 │ 1.571 │ 0.169 │ 0.049 │ 1.457 │ 1.471 │ 1.485 │ 1.534 │ 2.066 │ 5.611 │ 4.208 │ 1.926 │ │ σ1 │ 1.023 │ 0.215 │ 0.037 │ 0.842 │ 0.954 │ 0.96 │ 0.966 │ 1.912 │ 12.161 │ 10.779 │ 1.839 │ │ σ2 │ 1.243 │ 0.129 │ 0.05 │ 0.995 │ 1.264 │ 1.296 │ 1.318 │ 1.37 │ 6.035 │ NaN │ 1.789 │ │ p1 │ 0.854 │ 0.261 │ 0.058 │ 0.092 │ 0.944 │ 0.957 │ 0.971 │ 0.977 │ 5.744 │ NaN │ 1.882 │ │ p2 │ 0.146 │ 0.261 │ 0.058 │ 0.023 │ 0.029 │ 0.043 │ 0.056 │ 0.908 │ 5.744 │ 4.208 │ 1.882 │ └────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ NaN │ 8.398 │ NaN │ └───┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ ┌───┬──────┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ NaN │ 8.398 │ NaN │ └───┴──────┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ σ │ 10.062 │ 0.137 │ 0.034 │ 9.757 │ 9.994 │ 10.06 │ 10.144 │ 10.273 │ 13.991 │ 78.072 │ 1.217 │ │ μ │ 0.289 │ 0.001 │ 0.0 │ 0.288 │ 0.289 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.291 │ 13.991 │ 10.965 │ 1.217 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ NaN │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ NaN │ 8.398 │ NaN │ └───┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ ┌───┬──────┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ NaN │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ NaN │ 8.398 │ NaN │ └───┴──────┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ σ │ 10.016 │ 0.136 │ 0.027 │ 9.799 │ 9.935 │ 10.0 │ 10.148 │ 10.28 │ 34.355 │ 43.411 │ 1.193 │ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.001 │ 0.0 │ 0.288 │ 0.289 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.291 │ 34.355 │ 69.072 │ 1.193 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 6.48 │ 8.398 │ 1.778 │ └───┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ ┌───┬──────┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 6.48 │ 8.398 │ 1.778 │ └───┴──────┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ σ │ 9.993 │ 0.142 │ 0.038 │ 9.776 │ 9.855 │ 10.004 │ 10.105 │ 10.264 │ 13.357 │ 29.264 │ 1.25 │ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.001 │ 0.0 │ 0.288 │ 0.289 │ 0.29 │ 0.291 │ 0.291 │ 13.418 │ 34.782 │ 1.25 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 6.069 │ 8.398 │ 1.931 │ └───┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ ┌───┬──────┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 6.069 │ 8.398 │ 1.931 │ └───┴──────┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ σ │ 9.987 │ 0.367 │ 0.145 │ 9.416 │ 9.737 │ 9.964 │ 10.245 │ 10.514 │ 6.732 │ 5.841 │ 1.737 │ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.002 │ 0.001 │ 0.287 │ 0.289 │ 0.29 │ 0.291 │ 0.293 │ 7.252 │ 43.381 │ 1.638 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ NaN │ 8.398 │ NaN │ └───┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ ┌───┬──────┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ NaN │ 8.398 │ NaN │ └───┴──────┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ σ │ 10.015 │ 0.226 │ 0.031 │ 9.64 │ 9.815 │ 10.028 │ 10.193 │ 10.391 │ 53.704 │ 53.689 │ 1.047 │ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.001 │ 0.0 │ 0.288 │ 0.289 │ 0.29 │ 0.291 │ 0.292 │ 53.704 │ 53.689 │ 1.047 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ NaN │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ NaN │ 8.398 │ NaN │ └───┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ ┌───┬──────┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ NaN │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ NaN │ 8.398 │ NaN │ └───┴──────┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ σ │ 10.033 │ 0.229 │ 0.053 │ 9.65 │ 9.821 │ 10.062 │ 10.208 │ 10.409 │ 22.732 │ 19.942 │ 1.157 │ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.001 │ 0.0 │ 0.288 │ 0.289 │ 0.289 │ 0.291 │ 0.292 │ 22.732 │ 59.186 │ 1.157 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 6.587 │ 71.244 │ 1.746 │ └───┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ ┌───┬──────┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 6.587 │ 71.244 │ 1.746 │ └───┴──────┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ σ │ 9.962 │ 0.222 │ 0.026 │ 9.609 │ 9.832 │ 9.973 │ 10.086 │ 10.392 │ 78.197 │ 16.919 │ 1.17 │ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.001 │ 0.0 │ 0.288 │ 0.289 │ 0.29 │ 0.291 │ 0.292 │ 76.405 │ 45.758 │ 1.172 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 6.401 │ 8.398 │ 1.806 │ └───┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ ┌───┬──────┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 6.401 │ 8.398 │ 1.806 │ └───┴──────┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ σ │ 10.008 │ 0.215 │ 0.043 │ 9.677 │ 9.845 │ 9.993 │ 10.193 │ 10.379 │ 27.95 │ 20.393 │ 1.114 │ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.001 │ 0.0 │ 0.288 │ 0.289 │ 0.29 │ 0.291 │ 0.292 │ 27.764 │ 79.222 │ 1.114 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 10000. Sampling iterations set to 900 Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 10. Sampling iterations set to 10 Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Test Summary: | Pass Total Time All tests | 214 214 16m20.4s Testing Baytes tests passed Testing completed after 1020.58s PkgEval succeeded after 1114.4s