Package evaluation to test Baytes on Julia 1.14.0-DEV.1687 (b1350e5378*) started at 2026-02-05T20:56:55.371 ################################################################################ # Set-up # Installing PkgEval dependencies (TestEnv)... Activating project at `~/.julia/environments/v1.14` Set-up completed after 11.39s ################################################################################ # Installation # Installing Baytes... Resolving package versions... Updating `~/.julia/environments/v1.14/Project.toml` [72ddfcfc] + Baytes v0.3.16 Updating `~/.julia/environments/v1.14/Manifest.toml` [621f4979] + AbstractFFTs v1.5.0 [7d9f7c33] + Accessors v0.1.43 [79e6a3ab] + Adapt v4.4.0 [66dad0bd] + AliasTables v1.1.3 [dce04be8] + ArgCheck v2.5.0 [72ddfcfc] + Baytes v0.3.16 [e5a8efeb] + BaytesCore v0.2.0 [12a76ff9] + BaytesDiff v0.3.1 [26b78818] + BaytesFilters v0.3.6 [8e6e46a0] + BaytesMCMC v0.3.4 [c78c806d] + BaytesOptim v0.1.9 [c4a8eb41] + BaytesPMCMC v0.3.3 [2428e3a5] + BaytesSMC v0.3.6 ⌅ [76274a88] + Bijectors v0.13.18 [082447d4] + ChainRules v1.72.6 [d360d2e6] + ChainRulesCore v1.26.0 [9e997f8a] + ChangesOfVariables v0.1.10 [38540f10] + CommonSolve v0.2.6 [34da2185] + Compat v4.18.1 [a33af91c] + CompositionsBase v0.1.2 [187b0558] + ConstructionBase v1.6.0 [a8cc5b0e] + Crayons v4.1.1 [9a962f9c] + DataAPI v1.16.0 [864edb3b] + DataStructures v0.19.3 [e2d170a0] + DataValueInterfaces v1.0.0 [31c24e10] + Distributions v0.25.123 [ffbed154] + DocStringExtensions v0.9.5 [fdbdab4c] + ElasticArrays v1.2.12 [5789e2e9] + FileIO v1.18.0 [1a297f60] + FillArrays v1.16.0 ⌅ [d9f16b24] + Functors v0.4.12 [46192b85] + GPUArraysCore v0.2.0 [34004b35] + HypergeometricFunctions v0.3.28 [3587e190] + InverseFunctions v0.1.17 [92d709cd] + IrrationalConstants v0.2.6 [82899510] + IteratorInterfaceExtensions v1.0.0 ⌅ [033835bb] + JLD2 v0.4.55 [692b3bcd] + JLLWrappers v1.7.1 [b964fa9f] + LaTeXStrings v1.4.0 [2ab3a3ac] + LogExpFunctions v0.3.29 [be115224] + MCMCDiagnosticTools v0.3.16 [e80e1ace] + MLJModelInterface v1.12.1 [1914dd2f] + MacroTools v0.5.16 [dbb5928d] + MappedArrays v0.4.3 [e1d29d7a] + Missings v1.2.0 [44c54197] + ModelWrappers v0.5.6 [bac558e1] + OrderedCollections v1.8.1 [90014a1f] + PDMats v0.11.37 [aea7be01] + PrecompileTools v1.3.3 [21216c6a] + Preferences v1.5.1 ⌅ [08abe8d2] + PrettyTables v2.4.0 [92933f4c] + ProgressMeter v1.11.0 [43287f4e] + PtrArrays v1.3.0 [1fd47b50] + QuadGK v2.11.2 [c1ae055f] + RealDot v0.1.0 [189a3867] + Reexport v1.2.2 [ae029012] + Requires v1.3.1 [79098fc4] + Rmath v0.9.0 [f2b01f46] + Roots v2.2.10 [30f210dd] + ScientificTypesBase v3.0.0 [ce78b400] + SimpleUnPack v1.1.0 [a2af1166] + SortingAlgorithms v1.2.2 [dc90abb0] + SparseInverseSubset v0.1.2 [276daf66] + SpecialFunctions v2.6.1 [64bff920] + StatisticalTraits v3.5.0 [10745b16] + Statistics v1.11.1 [82ae8749] + StatsAPI v1.8.0 [2913bbd2] + StatsBase v0.34.10 [4c63d2b9] + StatsFuns v1.5.2 [892a3eda] + StringManipulation v0.4.2 [09ab397b] + StructArrays v0.7.2 [3783bdb8] + TableTraits v1.0.1 [bd369af6] + Tables v1.12.1 [3bb67fe8] + TranscodingStreams v0.11.3 [efe28fd5] + OpenSpecFun_jll v0.5.6+0 [f50d1b31] + Rmath_jll v0.5.1+0 [0dad84c5] + ArgTools v1.1.2 [56f22d72] + Artifacts v1.11.0 [2a0f44e3] + Base64 v1.11.0 [ade2ca70] + Dates v1.11.0 [8ba89e20] + Distributed v1.11.0 [f43a241f] + Downloads v1.7.0 [7b1f6079] + FileWatching v1.11.0 [b77e0a4c] + InteractiveUtils v1.11.0 [ac6e5ff7] + JuliaSyntaxHighlighting v1.13.0 [b27032c2] + LibCURL v1.0.0 [76f85450] + LibGit2 v1.11.0 [8f399da3] + Libdl v1.11.0 [37e2e46d] + LinearAlgebra v1.13.0 [56ddb016] + Logging v1.11.0 [d6f4376e] + Markdown v1.11.0 [a63ad114] + Mmap v1.11.0 [ca575930] + NetworkOptions v1.3.0 [44cfe95a] + Pkg v1.14.0 [de0858da] + Printf v1.11.0 [3fa0cd96] + REPL v1.11.0 [9a3f8284] + Random v1.11.0 [ea8e919c] + SHA v1.0.0 [9e88b42a] + Serialization v1.11.0 [6462fe0b] + Sockets v1.11.0 [2f01184e] + SparseArrays v1.13.0 [f489334b] + StyledStrings v1.13.0 [4607b0f0] + SuiteSparse [fa267f1f] + TOML v1.0.3 [a4e569a6] + Tar v1.10.0 [cf7118a7] + UUIDs v1.11.0 [4ec0a83e] + Unicode v1.11.0 [e66e0078] + CompilerSupportLibraries_jll v1.3.0+1 [deac9b47] + LibCURL_jll v8.18.0+0 [e37daf67] + LibGit2_jll v1.9.2+0 [29816b5a] + LibSSH2_jll v1.11.3+1 [14a3606d] + MozillaCACerts_jll v2025.12.2 [4536629a] + OpenBLAS_jll v0.3.30+0 [05823500] + OpenLibm_jll v0.8.7+0 [458c3c95] + OpenSSL_jll v3.5.5+0 [efcefdf7] + PCRE2_jll v10.47.0+0 [bea87d4a] + SuiteSparse_jll v7.10.1+0 [83775a58] + Zlib_jll v1.3.1+2 [3161d3a3] + Zstd_jll v1.5.7+1 [8e850b90] + libblastrampoline_jll v5.15.0+0 [8e850ede] + nghttp2_jll v1.68.0+1 [3f19e933] + p7zip_jll v17.7.0+0 Info Packages marked with ⌅ have new versions available but compatibility constraints restrict them from upgrading. To see why use `status --outdated -m` Installation completed after 5.83s ################################################################################ # Precompilation # Precompiling PkgEval dependencies... Precompiling package dependencies... Precompiling packages... 9400.3 ms ✓ Bijectors 4312.4 ms ✓ Bijectors → BijectorsForwardDiffExt 6335.6 ms ✓ ModelWrappers 6008.9 ms ✓ BaytesDiff 7970.9 ms ✓ BaytesFilters 5815.3 ms ✓ BaytesDiff → BaytesDiffForwardDiffExt 8738.1 ms ✓ BaytesOptim 6675.4 ms ✓ BaytesMCMC 4866.5 ms ✓ BaytesOptim → BaytesOptimOptimExt 5480.0 ms ✓ BaytesPMCMC 6130.4 ms ✓ BaytesSMC 15827.9 ms ✓ Baytes 12 dependencies successfully precompiled in 91 seconds. 167 already precompiled. Precompilation completed after 105.72s ################################################################################ # Testing # Testing Baytes Status `/tmp/jl_tAQmKt/Project.toml` [dce04be8] ArgCheck v2.5.0 [72ddfcfc] Baytes v0.3.16 [e5a8efeb] BaytesCore v0.2.0 [12a76ff9] BaytesDiff v0.3.1 [26b78818] BaytesFilters v0.3.6 [8e6e46a0] BaytesMCMC v0.3.4 [c78c806d] BaytesOptim v0.1.9 [c4a8eb41] BaytesPMCMC v0.3.3 [2428e3a5] BaytesSMC v0.3.6 [31c24e10] Distributions v0.25.123 [ffbed154] DocStringExtensions v0.9.5 ⌃ [f6369f11] ForwardDiff v0.10.39 ⌅ [033835bb] JLD2 v0.4.55 [be115224] MCMCDiagnosticTools v0.3.16 [44c54197] ModelWrappers v0.5.6 ⌅ [d41bc354] NLSolversBase v7.10.0 ⌃ [429524aa] Optim v1.13.3 ⌅ [08abe8d2] PrettyTables v2.4.0 [92933f4c] ProgressMeter v1.11.0 [ce78b400] SimpleUnPack v1.1.0 [10745b16] Statistics v1.11.1 [ade2ca70] Dates v1.11.0 [9a3f8284] Random v1.11.0 [8dfed614] Test v1.11.0 Status `/tmp/jl_tAQmKt/Manifest.toml` [47edcb42] ADTypes v1.21.0 [621f4979] AbstractFFTs v1.5.0 [7d9f7c33] Accessors v0.1.43 [79e6a3ab] Adapt v4.4.0 [66dad0bd] AliasTables v1.1.3 [dce04be8] ArgCheck v2.5.0 [4fba245c] ArrayInterface v7.22.0 [72ddfcfc] Baytes v0.3.16 [e5a8efeb] BaytesCore v0.2.0 [12a76ff9] BaytesDiff v0.3.1 [26b78818] BaytesFilters v0.3.6 [8e6e46a0] BaytesMCMC v0.3.4 [c78c806d] BaytesOptim v0.1.9 [c4a8eb41] BaytesPMCMC v0.3.3 [2428e3a5] BaytesSMC v0.3.6 ⌅ [76274a88] Bijectors v0.13.18 [082447d4] ChainRules v1.72.6 [d360d2e6] ChainRulesCore v1.26.0 [9e997f8a] ChangesOfVariables v0.1.10 [38540f10] CommonSolve v0.2.6 [bbf7d656] CommonSubexpressions v0.3.1 [34da2185] Compat v4.18.1 [a33af91c] CompositionsBase v0.1.2 [187b0558] ConstructionBase v1.6.0 [a8cc5b0e] Crayons v4.1.1 [9a962f9c] DataAPI v1.16.0 [864edb3b] DataStructures v0.19.3 [e2d170a0] DataValueInterfaces v1.0.0 [163ba53b] DiffResults v1.1.0 [b552c78f] DiffRules v1.15.1 [a0c0ee7d] DifferentiationInterface v0.7.16 [31c24e10] Distributions v0.25.123 [ffbed154] DocStringExtensions v0.9.5 [fdbdab4c] ElasticArrays v1.2.12 [4e289a0a] EnumX v1.0.6 [5789e2e9] FileIO v1.18.0 [1a297f60] FillArrays v1.16.0 [6a86dc24] FiniteDiff v2.29.0 ⌃ [f6369f11] ForwardDiff v0.10.39 ⌅ [d9f16b24] Functors v0.4.12 [46192b85] GPUArraysCore v0.2.0 [34004b35] HypergeometricFunctions v0.3.28 [3587e190] InverseFunctions v0.1.17 [92d709cd] IrrationalConstants v0.2.6 [82899510] IteratorInterfaceExtensions v1.0.0 ⌅ [033835bb] JLD2 v0.4.55 [692b3bcd] JLLWrappers v1.7.1 [b964fa9f] LaTeXStrings v1.4.0 ⌃ [d3d80556] LineSearches v7.5.1 [2ab3a3ac] LogExpFunctions v0.3.29 [be115224] MCMCDiagnosticTools v0.3.16 [e80e1ace] MLJModelInterface v1.12.1 [1914dd2f] MacroTools v0.5.16 [dbb5928d] MappedArrays v0.4.3 [e1d29d7a] Missings v1.2.0 [44c54197] ModelWrappers v0.5.6 ⌅ [d41bc354] NLSolversBase v7.10.0 [77ba4419] NaNMath v1.1.3 ⌃ [429524aa] Optim v1.13.3 [bac558e1] OrderedCollections v1.8.1 [90014a1f] PDMats v0.11.37 [85a6dd25] PositiveFactorizations v0.2.4 [aea7be01] PrecompileTools v1.3.3 [21216c6a] Preferences v1.5.1 ⌅ [08abe8d2] PrettyTables v2.4.0 [92933f4c] ProgressMeter v1.11.0 [43287f4e] PtrArrays v1.3.0 [1fd47b50] QuadGK v2.11.2 [c1ae055f] RealDot v0.1.0 [189a3867] Reexport v1.2.2 [ae029012] Requires v1.3.1 [79098fc4] Rmath v0.9.0 [f2b01f46] Roots v2.2.10 [30f210dd] ScientificTypesBase v3.0.0 [efcf1570] Setfield v1.1.2 [ce78b400] SimpleUnPack v1.1.0 [a2af1166] SortingAlgorithms v1.2.2 [dc90abb0] SparseInverseSubset v0.1.2 [276daf66] SpecialFunctions v2.6.1 [1e83bf80] StaticArraysCore v1.4.4 [64bff920] StatisticalTraits v3.5.0 [10745b16] Statistics v1.11.1 [82ae8749] StatsAPI v1.8.0 [2913bbd2] StatsBase v0.34.10 [4c63d2b9] StatsFuns v1.5.2 [892a3eda] StringManipulation v0.4.2 [09ab397b] StructArrays v0.7.2 [3783bdb8] TableTraits v1.0.1 [bd369af6] Tables v1.12.1 [3bb67fe8] TranscodingStreams v0.11.3 [efe28fd5] OpenSpecFun_jll v0.5.6+0 [f50d1b31] Rmath_jll v0.5.1+0 [0dad84c5] ArgTools v1.1.2 [56f22d72] Artifacts v1.11.0 [2a0f44e3] Base64 v1.11.0 [ade2ca70] Dates v1.11.0 [8ba89e20] Distributed v1.11.0 [f43a241f] Downloads v1.7.0 [7b1f6079] FileWatching v1.11.0 [9fa8497b] Future v1.11.0 [b77e0a4c] InteractiveUtils v1.11.0 [ac6e5ff7] JuliaSyntaxHighlighting v1.13.0 [b27032c2] LibCURL v1.0.0 [76f85450] LibGit2 v1.11.0 [8f399da3] Libdl v1.11.0 [37e2e46d] LinearAlgebra v1.13.0 [56ddb016] Logging v1.11.0 [d6f4376e] Markdown v1.11.0 [a63ad114] Mmap v1.11.0 [ca575930] NetworkOptions v1.3.0 [44cfe95a] Pkg v1.14.0 [de0858da] Printf v1.11.0 [3fa0cd96] REPL v1.11.0 [9a3f8284] Random v1.11.0 [ea8e919c] SHA v1.0.0 [9e88b42a] Serialization v1.11.0 [6462fe0b] Sockets v1.11.0 [2f01184e] SparseArrays v1.13.0 [f489334b] StyledStrings v1.13.0 [4607b0f0] SuiteSparse [fa267f1f] TOML v1.0.3 [a4e569a6] Tar v1.10.0 [8dfed614] Test v1.11.0 [cf7118a7] UUIDs v1.11.0 [4ec0a83e] Unicode v1.11.0 [e66e0078] CompilerSupportLibraries_jll v1.3.0+1 [deac9b47] LibCURL_jll v8.18.0+0 [e37daf67] LibGit2_jll v1.9.2+0 [29816b5a] LibSSH2_jll v1.11.3+1 [14a3606d] MozillaCACerts_jll v2025.12.2 [4536629a] OpenBLAS_jll v0.3.30+0 [05823500] OpenLibm_jll v0.8.7+0 [458c3c95] OpenSSL_jll v3.5.5+0 [efcefdf7] PCRE2_jll v10.47.0+0 [bea87d4a] SuiteSparse_jll v7.10.1+0 [83775a58] Zlib_jll v1.3.1+2 [3161d3a3] Zstd_jll v1.5.7+1 [8e850b90] libblastrampoline_jll v5.15.0+0 [8e850ede] nghttp2_jll v1.68.0+1 [3f19e933] p7zip_jll v17.7.0+0 Info Packages marked with ⌃ and ⌅ have new versions available. Those with ⌃ may be upgradable, but those with ⌅ are restricted by compatibility constraints from upgrading. Testing Running tests... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.146 │ 0.253 │ 0.078 │ -0.286 │ -0.033 │ 0.156 │ 0.338 │ 0.631 │ 11.749 │ 10.01 │ 1.289 │ │ σ │ 9.992 │ 0.15 │ 0.025 │ 9.706 │ 9.88 │ 10.0 │ 10.078 │ 10.339 │ 27.676 │ 82.581 │ 1.131 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ ┌───┬──────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.146 │ 0.253 │ 0.078 │ -0.286 │ -0.033 │ 0.156 │ 0.338 │ 0.631 │ 11.749 │ 10.01 │ 1.289 │ │ σ │ 10.0 │ 9.992 │ 0.15 │ 0.025 │ 9.706 │ 9.88 │ 10.0 │ 10.078 │ 10.339 │ 27.676 │ 82.581 │ 1.131 │ └───┴──────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.054 │ 0.259 │ 0.051 │ -0.182 │ -0.079 │ 0.0 │ 0.035 │ 0.775 │ 21.653 │ 12.644 │ 1.414 │ │ σ │ 10.019 │ 0.156 │ 0.016 │ 9.595 │ 9.959 │ 10.0 │ 10.101 │ 10.316 │ 61.514 │ 92.079 │ 1.298 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ ┌───┬──────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.054 │ 0.259 │ 0.051 │ -0.182 │ -0.079 │ 0.0 │ 0.035 │ 0.775 │ 21.653 │ 12.644 │ 1.414 │ │ σ │ 10.0 │ 10.019 │ 0.156 │ 0.016 │ 9.595 │ 9.959 │ 10.0 │ 10.101 │ 10.316 │ 61.514 │ 92.079 │ 1.298 │ └───┴──────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ -0.02 │ 0.208 │ 0.063 │ -0.309 │ -0.191 │ -0.002 │ 0.072 │ 0.542 │ 8.883 │ 39.991 │ 1.434 │ │ σ │ 9.944 │ 0.241 │ 0.071 │ 9.607 │ 9.807 │ 9.955 │ 10.057 │ 10.564 │ 12.216 │ 7.426 │ 1.255 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ ┌───┬──────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ -0.02 │ 0.208 │ 0.063 │ -0.309 │ -0.191 │ -0.002 │ 0.072 │ 0.542 │ 8.883 │ 39.991 │ 1.434 │ │ σ │ 10.0 │ 9.944 │ 0.241 │ 0.071 │ 9.607 │ 9.807 │ 9.955 │ 10.057 │ 10.564 │ 12.216 │ 7.426 │ 1.255 │ └───┴──────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.159 │ 0.313 │ 0.121 │ -0.189 │ -0.089 │ -0.009 │ 0.421 │ 0.702 │ 7.311 │ 9.104 │ 1.611 │ │ σ │ 9.884 │ 0.224 │ 0.053 │ 9.634 │ 9.665 │ 9.896 │ 10.013 │ 10.386 │ 18.469 │ 8.508 │ 1.156 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ ┌───┬──────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.159 │ 0.313 │ 0.121 │ -0.189 │ -0.089 │ -0.009 │ 0.421 │ 0.702 │ 7.311 │ 9.104 │ 1.611 │ │ σ │ 10.0 │ 9.884 │ 0.224 │ 0.053 │ 9.634 │ 9.665 │ 9.896 │ 10.013 │ 10.386 │ 18.469 │ 8.508 │ 1.156 │ └───┴──────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.073 │ 0.331 │ 0.108 │ -0.453 │ -0.138 │ 0.051 │ 0.305 │ 0.781 │ 9.046 │ 24.321 │ 1.434 │ │ σ │ 9.988 │ 0.232 │ 0.034 │ 9.568 │ 9.782 │ 10.0 │ 10.144 │ 10.502 │ 50.164 │ 102.886 │ 1.066 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ ┌───┬──────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.073 │ 0.331 │ 0.108 │ -0.453 │ -0.138 │ 0.051 │ 0.305 │ 0.781 │ 9.046 │ 24.321 │ 1.434 │ │ σ │ 10.0 │ 9.988 │ 0.232 │ 0.034 │ 9.568 │ 9.782 │ 10.0 │ 10.144 │ 10.502 │ 50.164 │ 102.886 │ 1.066 │ └───┴──────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.059 │ 0.439 │ 0.137 │ -0.533 │ -0.312 │ 0.017 │ 0.28 │ 1.099 │ 11.291 │ 26.6 │ 1.311 │ │ σ │ 10.021 │ 0.257 │ 0.027 │ 9.625 │ 9.792 │ 10.02 │ 10.229 │ 10.518 │ 86.933 │ 53.323 │ 1.048 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ ┌───┬──────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.059 │ 0.439 │ 0.137 │ -0.533 │ -0.312 │ 0.017 │ 0.28 │ 1.099 │ 11.291 │ 26.6 │ 1.311 │ │ σ │ 10.0 │ 10.021 │ 0.257 │ 0.027 │ 9.625 │ 9.792 │ 10.02 │ 10.229 │ 10.518 │ 86.933 │ 53.323 │ 1.048 │ └───┴──────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.035 │ 0.296 │ 0.072 │ -0.357 │ -0.158 │ -0.057 │ 0.165 │ 0.884 │ 17.458 │ 22.054 │ 1.248 │ │ σ │ 10.01 │ 0.292 │ 0.051 │ 9.517 │ 9.826 │ 9.978 │ 10.239 │ 10.576 │ 34.269 │ 18.801 │ 1.101 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ ┌───┬──────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.035 │ 0.296 │ 0.072 │ -0.357 │ -0.158 │ -0.057 │ 0.165 │ 0.884 │ 17.458 │ 22.054 │ 1.248 │ │ σ │ 10.0 │ 10.01 │ 0.292 │ 0.051 │ 9.517 │ 9.826 │ 9.978 │ 10.239 │ 10.576 │ 34.269 │ 18.801 │ 1.101 │ └───┴──────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.201 │ 0.322 │ 0.104 │ -0.265 │ -0.045 │ 0.135 │ 0.442 │ 0.864 │ 9.178 │ 25.627 │ 1.405 │ │ σ │ 10.036 │ 0.286 │ 0.031 │ 9.527 │ 9.838 │ 10.006 │ 10.247 │ 10.631 │ 93.295 │ 39.558 │ 1.204 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ ┌───┬──────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.201 │ 0.322 │ 0.104 │ -0.265 │ -0.045 │ 0.135 │ 0.442 │ 0.864 │ 9.178 │ 25.627 │ 1.405 │ │ σ │ 10.0 │ 10.036 │ 0.286 │ 0.031 │ 9.527 │ 9.838 │ 10.006 │ 10.247 │ 10.631 │ 93.295 │ 39.558 │ 1.204 │ └───┴──────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1080.002, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3737.283. NUTS sampler had 37 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 22.642 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.45 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 37, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.252 │ 0.313 │ 0.04 │ -0.293 │ 0.008 │ 0.252 │ 0.458 │ 0.949 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ │ σ │ 10.027 │ 0.211 │ 0.013 │ 9.635 │ 9.891 │ 10.019 │ 10.202 │ 10.438 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1080.486, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3734.96. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 20.86 (27) number of steps and depth of 3.78 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.328 │ 0.371 │ 0.073 │ -0.268 │ 0.083 │ 0.239 │ 0.61 │ 1.055 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ │ σ │ 9.98 │ 0.224 │ 0.029 │ 9.558 │ 9.839 │ 9.96 │ 10.144 │ 10.375 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1079.823, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3738.829. NUTS sampler had 29 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 18.946 (7) number of steps and depth of 3.438 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 29, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1080.344, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3738.273. NUTS sampler had 28 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 19.216 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.42 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 28, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.237 │ 0.29 │ 0.037 │ -0.318 │ 0.034 │ 0.242 │ 0.431 │ 0.84 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ │ σ │ 10.023 │ 0.209 │ 0.011 │ 9.603 │ 9.876 │ 10.037 │ 10.164 │ 10.436 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1080.344, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.25. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 23.02 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.92 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1080.031, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.152. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 20.72 (7) number of steps and depth of 3.71 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.27 │ 0.303 │ 0.035 │ -0.273 │ 0.053 │ 0.259 │ 0.471 │ 0.814 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ │ σ │ 10.035 │ 0.278 │ 0.026 │ 9.499 │ 9.841 │ 10.044 │ 10.205 │ 10.609 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.001, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.56. NUTS sampler had 172 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 48.126 (7) number of steps and depth of 2.5 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 34, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 138, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.004, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.404. NUTS sampler had 75 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 106.748 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.496 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 25, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 50, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.001, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.638. NUTS sampler had 211 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 24.924 (1) number of steps and depth of 2.004 (0). Divergences in: Warmup: 36, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 175, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1.827, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.311. NUTS sampler had 69 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 96.32 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.736 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 19, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 50, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬─────────┬─────────┬─────────┬──────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼─────────┼─────────┼─────────┼──────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ -15.509 │ 69.232 │ 27.937 │ -174.358 │ -0.012 │ 0.349 │ 2.852 │ 52.197 │ 7.32 │ 12.744 │ 1.679 │ │ σ │ 2142.26 │ 42524.1 │ 1258.54 │ 9.64 │ 10.014 │ 10.193 │ 33.407 │ 653.68 │ 8.805 │ 89.617 │ 1.588 │ └───┴─────────┴─────────┴─────────┴──────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.001, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3738.68. NUTS sampler had 25 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 199.06 (1) number of steps and depth of 3.78 (0). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 25, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.015, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.742. NUTS sampler had 15 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 247.04 (2) number of steps and depth of 4.85 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 15, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.779, Avg. final ℓposterior: -5864.068. NUTS sampler had 68 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 49.27 (1) number of steps and depth of 1.48 (0). Divergences in: Warmup: 43, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 25, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.001, Avg. final ℓposterior: -4436.643. NUTS sampler had 25 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 257.44 (1) number of steps and depth of 4.08 (0). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 25, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬─────────┬───────────┬─────────┬─────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬─────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼─────────┼───────────┼─────────┼─────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼─────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 76.445 │ 345.66 │ 73.265 │ -24.356 │ 0.414 │ 15.026 │ 37.974 │ 819.028 │ 11.618 │ 29.818 │ 1.671 │ │ σ │ 18519.2 │ 2.29535e5 │ 15016.9 │ 3.825 │ 10.183 │ 19.998 │ 33.019 │ 34345.4 │ 11.687 │ 37.74 │ 1.467 │ └───┴─────────┴───────────┴─────────┴─────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴─────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.029, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3737.415. NUTS sampler had 68 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 102.658 (23) number of steps and depth of 3.718 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 18, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 50, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.005, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3736.398. NUTS sampler had 85 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 106.268 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.872 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 35, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 50, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.001, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.513. NUTS sampler had 86 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 101.258 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.56 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 36, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 50, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.331, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3736.888. NUTS sampler had 75 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 120.826 (7) number of steps and depth of 3.984 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 25, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 50, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.002, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3738.438. NUTS sampler had 69 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 95.924 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.678 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 19, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 50, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.005, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3739.146. NUTS sampler had 85 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 112.942 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.916 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 35, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 50, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.01, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.581. NUTS sampler had 86 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 99.988 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.558 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 36, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 50, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.176, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.901. NUTS sampler had 74 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 111.43 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.968 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 24, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 50, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬─────────┬─────────┬─────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬─────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼─────────┼─────────┼─────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼─────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 3.144 │ 45.262 │ 4.604 │ -6.625 │ -0.016 │ 0.273 │ 0.552 │ 4.376 │ 48.488 │ 18.811 │ 1.128 │ │ σ │ 2633.99 │ 55242.9 │ 1971.18 │ 9.461 │ 9.873 │ 10.068 │ 10.312 │ 351.801 │ 32.904 │ 18.352 │ 1.083 │ └───┴─────────┴─────────┴─────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴─────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.001, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.42. NUTS sampler had 25 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 276.12 (1) number of steps and depth of 4.75 (0). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 25, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.001, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3736.505. NUTS sampler had 25 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 225.06 (1) number of steps and depth of 4.3 (0). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 25, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.001, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3736.044. NUTS sampler had 25 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 254.76 (1) number of steps and depth of 4.51 (0). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 25, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.001, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3739.437. NUTS sampler had 24 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 266.03 (1) number of steps and depth of 4.64 (0). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 24, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.001, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.42. NUTS sampler had 25 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 266.94 (1) number of steps and depth of 4.77 (0). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 25, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.001, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3736.505. NUTS sampler had 25 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 237.56 (1) number of steps and depth of 4.4 (0). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 25, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.001, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3736.044. NUTS sampler had 25 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 254.86 (1) number of steps and depth of 4.62 (0). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 25, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -0.001, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3739.437. NUTS sampler had 25 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 257.69 (1) number of steps and depth of 4.53 (0). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 25, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬─────────┬─────────┬─────────┬──────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬─────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼─────────┼─────────┼─────────┼──────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼─────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ -13.764 │ 35.177 │ 7.668 │ -111.726 │ -0.579 │ 0.164 │ 0.733 │ 16.047 │ 39.367 │ 63.118 │ 1.528 │ │ σ │ 5894.78 │ 64537.7 │ 4496.58 │ 9.196 │ 9.953 │ 10.184 │ 17.247 │ 22343.7 │ 18.742 │ 71.73 │ 1.465 │ └───┴─────────┴─────────┴─────────┴──────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴─────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.88, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.647. NUTS sampler had 25 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 24.838 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.506 (5). Divergences in: Warmup: 25, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.187 │ 0.281 │ 0.033 │ -0.306 │ -0.023 │ 0.163 │ 0.366 │ 0.746 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ │ σ │ 10.017 │ 0.207 │ 0.015 │ 9.603 │ 9.869 │ 10.032 │ 10.143 │ 10.446 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -3735.61, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.429. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 19.12 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.65 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.318 │ 0.263 │ 0.043 │ -0.137 │ 0.157 │ 0.289 │ 0.46 │ 0.847 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ │ σ │ 10.019 │ 0.188 │ 0.019 │ 9.669 │ 9.902 │ 10.003 │ 10.157 │ 10.394 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1868.228, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.385. NUTS sampler had 36 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 16.882 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.266 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 36, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1868.233, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3736.682. NUTS sampler had 29 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 18.138 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.358 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 29, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.268 │ 0.292 │ 0.037 │ -0.278 │ 0.038 │ 0.294 │ 0.463 │ 0.798 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ │ σ │ 10.011 │ 0.217 │ 0.012 │ 9.61 │ 9.853 │ 9.992 │ 10.176 │ 10.433 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -3736.187, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3738.659. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 18.32 (3) number of steps and depth of 3.54 (2). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -3735.304, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.755. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 20.42 (9) number of steps and depth of 3.77 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.283 │ 0.275 │ 0.032 │ -0.259 │ 0.097 │ 0.291 │ 0.427 │ 0.812 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ │ σ │ 10.04 │ 0.251 │ 0.026 │ 9.487 │ 9.894 │ 10.064 │ 10.214 │ 10.502 │ NaN │ NaN │ NaN │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.88, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2588.564. NUTS sampler had 28 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 20.842 (23) number of steps and depth of 3.518 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 28, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.88, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2588.5. NUTS sampler had 26 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 21.144 (23) number of steps and depth of 3.494 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 26, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1868.178, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2590.226. NUTS sampler had 24 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 19.452 (7) number of steps and depth of 3.326 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 24, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.88, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2588.573. NUTS sampler had 29 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.468 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.31 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 29, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.285 │ 0.349 │ 0.018 │ -0.431 │ 0.058 │ 0.28 │ 0.52 │ 0.964 │ 388.056 │ 583.59 │ 1.014 │ │ σ │ 10.006 │ 0.276 │ 0.014 │ 9.493 │ 9.806 │ 10.0 │ 10.195 │ 10.575 │ 374.169 │ 922.418 │ 1.013 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2589.606, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2696.976. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 20.82 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.77 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2590.039, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2696.732. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.52 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.57 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2589.948, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2696.316. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 19.34 (13) number of steps and depth of 3.59 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2589.697, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2695.548. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.82 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.56 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.284 │ 0.337 │ 0.036 │ -0.349 │ 0.061 │ 0.287 │ 0.517 │ 0.907 │ 85.733 │ 171.701 │ 1.031 │ │ σ │ 10.02 │ 0.27 │ 0.014 │ 9.474 │ 9.841 │ 10.024 │ 10.199 │ 10.575 │ 355.182 │ 192.684 │ 1.03 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.88, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2588.489. NUTS sampler had 22 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.536 (7) number of steps and depth of 3.292 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 22, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.88, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2588.339. NUTS sampler had 22 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 18.106 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.332 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 22, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.88, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2588.986. NUTS sampler had 22 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.84 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.318 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 22, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.88, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2588.669. NUTS sampler had 26 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.334 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.3 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 26, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.88, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2589.687. NUTS sampler had 23 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 16.752 (11) number of steps and depth of 3.278 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 23, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.801, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2588.782. NUTS sampler had 19 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.824 (11) number of steps and depth of 3.336 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 19, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1868.501, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2588.985. NUTS sampler had 20 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 18.64 (23) number of steps and depth of 3.31 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 20, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.88, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2588.485. NUTS sampler had 34 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 16.652 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.272 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 34, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.274 │ 0.37 │ 0.016 │ -0.454 │ 0.021 │ 0.274 │ 0.518 │ 1.013 │ 546.633 │ 802.682 │ 1.008 │ │ σ │ 10.034 │ 0.283 │ 0.007 │ 9.489 │ 9.839 │ 10.018 │ 10.219 │ 10.601 │ 1570.13 │ 1273.3 │ 1.001 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2591.844, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2695.869. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 15.86 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.36 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2589.983, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2696.962. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 18.7 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.7 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2590.994, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2695.538. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 19.92 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.73 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2590.461, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2695.449. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.56 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.55 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2591.856, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2695.742. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.1 (11) number of steps and depth of 3.57 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2589.451, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2695.268. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 19.74 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.71 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2590.166, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2695.369. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 20.42 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.72 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 100 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2590.713, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2695.509. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 16.42 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.53 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.292 │ 0.342 │ 0.025 │ -0.37 │ 0.062 │ 0.289 │ 0.505 │ 0.938 │ 190.294 │ 268.263 │ 1.006 │ │ σ │ 10.011 │ 0.245 │ 0.011 │ 9.509 │ 9.845 │ 10.007 │ 10.186 │ 10.484 │ 471.792 │ 372.653 │ 1.011 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Computing... 0%|▏ | ETA: 0:07:22 ( 1.11 s/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 2 logobjective: -3735.7599335028153 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.5413158259350118e-85 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3739.129127462438                         Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:02 ( 7.47 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 100 logobjective: -3736.6338658551654 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9998606429315371 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 127 ℓH: -3738.885526433838 Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -3735.76, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3736.362. NUTS sampler had 27 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 13.156 (95) number of steps and depth of 2.067 (6). Divergences in: Warmup: 27, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -3735.76, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.746. NUTS sampler had 23 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 24.4 (63) number of steps and depth of 2.333 (5). Divergences in: Warmup: 23, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -3735.369, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3737.944. NUTS sampler had 33 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 10.889 (23) number of steps and depth of 2.011 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 33, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -3735.759, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3736.634. NUTS sampler had 18 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 35.067 (127) number of steps and depth of 2.411 (6). Divergences in: Warmup: 18, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.235 │ 0.248 │ 0.05 │ -0.224 │ 0.087 │ 0.177 │ 0.346 │ 0.79 │ 25.168 │ 69.309 │ 1.314 │ │ σ │ 10.025 │ 0.141 │ 0.015 │ 9.708 │ 9.947 │ 10.03 │ 10.113 │ 10.3 │ 79.727 │ 55.197 │ 1.29 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Computing... 0%|▏ | ETA: 0:01:57 ( 0.29 s/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 102 logobjective: -3735.346450791276 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9998397021701971 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 63 ℓH: -3736.320869236958                         Computing... 28%|██████▉ | ETA: 0:00:02 ( 6.30 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 110 logobjective: -3736.3165666457417 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9999982747336875 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 63 ℓH: -3736.573089489294                         Computing... 54%|█████████████▋ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 3.65 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 118 logobjective: -3736.5443144565006 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9950813453476268 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 15 ℓH: -3737.3069741989334                         Computing... 81%|████████████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 2.89 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 124 logobjective: -3735.3578891671764 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9999632853053585 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 63 ℓH: -3736.3109695724315                         Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:00 ( 2.50 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 200 logobjective: -3735.3317748247227 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9995247668474742 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 31 ℓH: -3736.1793764087743 Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -3735.545, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.487. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 22.089 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.7 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -3736.106, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3737.223. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 26.578 (23) number of steps and depth of 3.822 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -3738.886, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.393. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.933 (7) number of steps and depth of 3.433 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -3736.272, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.332. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 38.133 (31) number of steps and depth of 4.156 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.299 │ 0.337 │ 0.033 │ -0.384 │ 0.074 │ 0.318 │ 0.525 │ 0.942 │ 107.373 │ 116.552 │ 1.046 │ │ σ │ 10.009 │ 0.256 │ 0.02 │ 9.505 │ 9.842 │ 10.008 │ 10.165 │ 10.509 │ 159.094 │ 117.586 │ 1.033 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Computing... 0%|▏ | ETA: 0:02:30 ( 0.38 s/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1000 Avgℓobjective: -3738.4475361328045 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8235437186907668 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 98%|████████████████████████▍| ETA: 0:00:00 ( 4.36 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1097 Avgℓobjective: -3739.002589269035 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.46212831081656397 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:01 ( 4.27 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1099 Avgℓobjective: -3738.3568549150004 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.6424563201373563 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -3738.296, variance: 0.23 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -3738.357, variance: 0.489 Total number of jittering steps: 112. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.752, -0.074, 0.285, 0.653, 0.912]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.316 │ 0.287 │ 0.027 │ -0.289 │ 0.127 │ 0.325 │ 0.513 │ 0.828 │ 112.795 │ 120.72 │ 1.029 │ │ σ │ 10.02 │ 0.222 │ 0.013 │ 9.551 │ 9.881 │ 10.024 │ 10.162 │ 10.461 │ 305.109 │ 250.855 │ 1.017 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Computing... 38%|█████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 0.66 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1138 Avgℓobjective: -1578.149536700112 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9923575201686177 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 76%|███████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 1.81 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1175 Avgℓobjective: -1577.1555507477142 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.6659689445002425 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 84%|█████████████████████▏ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 1.98 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1184 Avgℓobjective: -1577.539628749316 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.6368259602114918 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 92%|███████████████████████▏ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 2.09 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1192 Avgℓobjective: -1578.1209208687974 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.1821524511394412 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:00 ( 2.21 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1199 Avgℓobjective: -1577.4523631873776 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.39150549995288364 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1576.979, variance: 0.199 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1577.452, variance: 0.235 Total number of jittering steps: 230. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.488, 0.135, 0.534, 0.837, 1.0]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.029 │ 0.029 │ 0.003 │ -0.02 │ 0.01 │ 0.031 │ 0.046 │ 0.089 │ 140.345 │ 200.857 │ 1.127 │ │ σ │ 1.014 │ 0.024 │ 0.006 │ 0.966 │ 0.997 │ 1.014 │ 1.03 │ 1.062 │ 18.797 │ 26.369 │ 1.201 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Computing... 0%| | ETA: 0:11:11 ( 0.84 s/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1000 Avgℓobjective: -49567.00504540928 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: NaN generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 13%|███▎ | ETA: 0:00:18 (25.22 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1050 Avgℓobjective: -3738.4913904784617 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.32381700014044307 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 14%|███▌ | ETA: 0:00:16 (23.73 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 57 logobjective: -3736.024101974162 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 6.454449364469017e-107 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3736.3664631542492                         Computing... 15%|███▉ | ETA: 0:00:16 (23.10 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 62 logobjective: -3735.3186959646546 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 3.839413078361761e-6 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3735.8696942834995                         Computing... 16%|████▏ | ETA: 0:00:15 (22.71 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1065 Avgℓobjective: -3738.820166796746 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8933903024762655 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 17%|████▎ | ETA: 0:00:15 (22.49 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1068 Avgℓobjective: -3738.2954207755038 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.5984275713405254 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 18%|████▌ | ETA: 0:00:15 (22.39 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1071 Avgℓobjective: -3738.1924107616005 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.7423347492237092 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 19%|████▋ | ETA: 0:00:15 (22.43 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 75 logobjective: -3736.338465400648 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 3.605671634845371e-80 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3736.929857132196                         Computing... 19%|████▊ | ETA: 0:00:14 (22.37 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1076 Avgℓobjective: -3738.4805075743498 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8365669920677339 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 20%|█████ | ETA: 0:00:14 (22.12 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1080 Avgℓobjective: -3737.9491991827213 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.30796053800591217 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 22%|█████▍ | ETA: 0:00:13 (21.46 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1085 Avgℓobjective: -3738.4604399790064 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.12087436850283438 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 23%|█████▋ | ETA: 0:00:13 (20.99 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 91 logobjective: -3735.5077280044047 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 2.4346489667150315e-16 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3735.718718904475                         Computing... 24%|█████▉ | ETA: 0:00:13 (20.74 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 95 logobjective: -3736.5098816905675 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.000263344882284997 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3737.4420400661797                         Computing... 24%|██████▏ | ETA: 0:00:13 (20.70 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1097 Avgℓobjective: -3738.5623213813597 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.6407079593149235 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 25%|██████▎ | ETA: 0:00:12 (20.74 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 1 logobjective: -49566.98569141124 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.0 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -49570.509063758145                         Computing... 31%|███████▉ | ETA: 0:00:11 (19.84 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 26 logobjective: -4943.823056277593 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.0 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -4947.117604234665                         Computing... 36%|████████▉ | ETA: 0:00:10 (18.60 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 43 logobjective: -3735.492070636533 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.059699034132611954 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -3735.7186433940024                         Computing... 37%|█████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:09 (18.84 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1047 Avgℓobjective: -3737.8674476492783 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.05300234941127857 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 39%|█████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:09 (18.55 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1054 Avgℓobjective: -3738.083999023963 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.46456511959475 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 40%|██████████ | ETA: 0:00:09 (18.50 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1058 Avgℓobjective: -3738.8138550318154 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.5917899454323164 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 41%|██████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:09 (18.25 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1063 Avgℓobjective: -3739.028616572511 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.7125839556093665 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 42%|██████████▋ | ETA: 0:00:08 (17.93 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1069 Avgℓobjective: -3738.908462911349 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8294015894526701 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 44%|███████████ | ETA: 0:00:08 (17.70 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 76 logobjective: -3738.344865556763 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.1825345409718945 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -3738.836572119137                         Computing... 45%|███████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:08 (17.67 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1079 Avgℓobjective: -3738.7354736102398 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.31180414626648295 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 46%|███████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:08 (17.51 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1084 Avgℓobjective: -3739.5865203945837 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.7615078981608496 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 47%|███████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:07 (17.42 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1088 Avgℓobjective: -3739.7894078133636 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.970856038995642 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 49%|████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:07 (17.15 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1094 Avgℓobjective: -3738.6339343642053 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.5339423521115767 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 50%|████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:07 (16.97 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 1 logobjective: -49566.98569141124 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.0 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -49568.5286106179                         Computing... 63%|███████████████▋ | ETA: 0:00:05 (15.64 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 51 logobjective: -3737.024512108732 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 8.245717232745423e-149 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -3737.611120240871                         Computing... 64%|████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:05 (15.71 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 56 logobjective: -3737.4047911681173 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 5.493539934350671e-226 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3738.1732899198328                         Computing... 64%|████████████████▏ | ETA: 0:00:04 (15.75 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1057 Avgℓobjective: -3738.372695191367 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.28346273568486885 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 66%|████████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:04 (15.91 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1063 Avgℓobjective: -3738.676686416065 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.5611696088606998 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 67%|████████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:04 (16.00 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1066 Avgℓobjective: -3738.0010409649863 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.4111129354176189 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 68%|████████████████▉ | ETA: 0:00:04 (16.06 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1069 Avgℓobjective: -3738.463333315586 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.03474214055825203 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 69%|█████████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:04 (16.13 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 76 logobjective: -3735.523080536977 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.9178889317499878e-26 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3736.0609640090565                         Computing... 70%|█████████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:04 (16.19 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1078 Avgℓobjective: -3738.491043053128 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.6393129802172 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 70%|█████████████████▋ | ETA: 0:00:04 (16.25 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1081 Avgℓobjective: -3738.06467851264 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.45485970254184144 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 71%|█████████████████▉ | ETA: 0:00:04 (16.24 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 86 logobjective: -3735.5190819175646 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.511133299230606e-20 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3735.5831155541478                         Computing... 72%|██████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:04 (16.35 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1088 Avgℓobjective: -3738.9228822095424 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8701116011894884 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 73%|██████████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:04 (16.42 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1091 Avgℓobjective: -3738.2836652663473 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.24984738379516072 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 74%|██████████████████▍ | ETA: 0:00:03 (16.46 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 95 logobjective: -3735.699141952582 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.0004664077708873946 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3735.9160543473113                         Computing... 74%|██████████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:03 (16.58 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1096 Avgℓobjective: -3738.3241055553826 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.2510812685337265 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 75%|██████████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:03 (16.63 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1099 Avgℓobjective: -3738.26349233374 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.1639385517594295 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 88%|█████████████████████▉ | ETA: 0:00:02 (15.53 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1049 Avgℓobjective: -3738.274927209761 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.6909416510885845 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 93%|███████████████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:01 (14.82 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1071 Avgℓobjective: -3738.252733118699 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.4809895689249865 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 97%|████████████████████████▏| ETA: 0:00:00 (14.59 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 87 logobjective: -3735.4342538166793 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.124601994482676e-18 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3739.522385882797                         Computing... 98%|████████████████████████▌| ETA: 0:00:00 (14.49 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1092 Avgℓobjective: -3738.0639723749046 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9419679556164221 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 99%|█████████████████████████| ETA: 0:00:00 (14.42 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1098 Avgℓobjective: -3738.741247261917 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.6140628579836106 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:11 (14.42 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1099 Avgℓobjective: -3738.633580804174 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.14320921224236138 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -8898.125, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.877. NUTS sampler had 53 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.667 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.756 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 49, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 4, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -18322.387, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.495. NUTS sampler had 49 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.656 (3) number of steps and depth of 0.833 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 45, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 4, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -8841.796, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.719. NUTS sampler had 52 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.611 (2) number of steps and depth of 0.8 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 47, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 5, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -8110.309, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3738.602. NUTS sampler had 46 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.7 (3) number of steps and depth of 0.822 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 41, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 5, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -9322.816, variance: 1.3211604241e7 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -3738.087, variance: 0.115 Total number of jittering steps: 233. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.283, 0.351, 0.64, 0.874, 0.98]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.75, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 2: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -14108.689, variance: 6.5420403255e7 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -3739.139, variance: 1.382 Total number of jittering steps: 231. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.196, 0.285, 0.65, 0.869, 0.999]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 3: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -10097.426, variance: 4.808001518e6 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -3738.263, variance: 0.094 Total number of jittering steps: 229. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.693, 0.171, 0.445, 0.876, 0.997]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 4: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -14653.5, variance: 7.5305226027e7 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -3738.634, variance: 0.553 Total number of jittering steps: 179. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.598, 0.21, 0.575, 0.822, 0.971]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 6.775]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.212 │ 0.262 │ 0.019 │ -0.255 │ 0.045 │ 0.144 │ 0.411 │ 0.738 │ 206.44 │ 242.525 │ 1.052 │ │ σ │ 9.429 │ 2.603 │ 0.344 │ 2.774 │ 9.77 │ 9.978 │ 10.142 │ 10.592 │ 74.85 │ 70.239 │ 1.062 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Computing... 0%| | ETA: 0:05:30 ( 0.41 s/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1100 Avgℓobjective: -3280.1354532730393 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.3123615495583977 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 2%|▌ | ETA: 0:00:43 (54.93 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 109 logobjective: -2252.2125020085928 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.0 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -2253.68653157087                         Computing... 10%|██▍ | ETA: 0:00:10 (14.12 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 139 logobjective: -1600.7389854455457 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.3827168066358848e-66 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1601.0686883956303                         Computing... 14%|███▋ | ETA: 0:00:08 (11.56 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1157 Avgℓobjective: -1601.5778651153887 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.2926706150663869 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 18%|████▍ | ETA: 0:00:07 (10.37 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1169 Avgℓobjective: -1601.2506770663076 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.36325447174100073 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 20%|█████▏ | ETA: 0:00:06 ( 9.47 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1181 Avgℓobjective: -1601.5010642781378 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.3950023692022103 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 24%|██████ | ETA: 0:00:05 ( 8.75 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1194 Avgℓobjective: -1601.4444692935965 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.43033222043614555 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 27%|██████▊ | ETA: 0:00:05 ( 8.26 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1106 Avgℓobjective: -2011.453216383334 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9563505852749776 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 34%|████████▋ | ETA: 0:00:04 ( 6.80 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 138 logobjective: -1603.7507698340266 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.0 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1605.995485384995                         Computing... 42%|██████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:03 ( 6.07 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1167 Avgℓobjective: -1601.0882819940052 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.06878370959007835 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 47%|███████████▋ | ETA: 0:00:02 ( 5.75 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 187 logobjective: -1600.6463149707686 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 3.1516238286439264e-62 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1602.0284318240438                         Computing... 51%|████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:02 ( 5.61 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1103 Avgℓobjective: -2243.5778507540313 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9052716225393798 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 54%|█████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:02 ( 5.57 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1115 Avgℓobjective: -1657.9089171796836 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9747378581611827 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 62%|███████████████▍ | ETA: 0:00:02 ( 5.13 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1145 Avgℓobjective: -1601.5565415722342 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.5405596812562694 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 68%|█████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 4.84 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1171 Avgℓobjective: -1601.2412894599915 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.6943745326906334 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 74%|██████████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 4.62 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1195 Avgℓobjective: -1600.9501651246594 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.5431409581040666 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 80%|████████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 4.69 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1118 Avgℓobjective: -1610.168638495887 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.7167109963080186 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 90%|██████████████████████▍ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 4.35 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 159 logobjective: -1601.62374118074 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 2.0564308307077136e-124 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1601.842708066188                         Computing... 98%|████████████████████████▍| ETA: 0:00:00 ( 4.36 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 191 logobjective: -1602.7752832215742 Temperature: 1.0 accepted: true acceptancerate: 5.005840964856988e-205 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 2 ℓH: -1604.5458071256442                         Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:03 ( 4.37 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1199 Avgℓobjective: -1601.1690435060702 Temperature: 1.0 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.41279358047570686 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1601.331, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1600.529. NUTS sampler had 52 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.5 (2) number of steps and depth of 0.733 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 45, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 7, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1603.751, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1600.553. NUTS sampler had 54 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.489 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.744 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 49, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 5, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1600.699, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1601.217. NUTS sampler had 42 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.556 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.878 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 36, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 6, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1602.291, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1600.686. NUTS sampler had 46 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.489 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.789 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 35, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 11, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1649.909, variance: 9662.595 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1601.526, variance: 0.48 Total number of jittering steps: 288. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.414, 0.399, 0.799, 0.94, 0.994]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 5.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 2: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1657.19, variance: 4783.287 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1601.309, variance: 0.474 Total number of jittering steps: 258. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.47, 0.063, 0.63, 0.898, 0.999]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 4.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 3: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1657.959, variance: 12811.335 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1601.702, variance: 0.235 Total number of jittering steps: 259. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.713, -0.021, 0.603, 0.923, 0.995]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 4: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1735.154, variance: 70471.348 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1601.169, variance: 0.566 Total number of jittering steps: 292. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.241, 0.175, 0.713, 0.917, 1.0]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 5.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ -0.026 │ 0.059 │ 0.006 │ -0.113 │ -0.053 │ -0.026 │ -0.004 │ 0.046 │ 266.411 │ 71.617 │ 1.052 │ │ σ │ 1.031 │ 0.092 │ 0.012 │ 0.881 │ 1.018 │ 1.033 │ 1.048 │ 1.086 │ 144.281 │ 59.526 │ 1.083 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Computing... 0%|▏ | ETA: 0:04:12 ( 0.63 s/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 2 logobjective: -1079.8232668525707 Temperature: 0.289050497374996 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.31301091036939543 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -1080.1907697625957                         Computing... 54%|█████████████▋ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 7.03 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 18 logobjective: -2495.8989435645844 Temperature: 0.6681877721681662 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.43182017980640075 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -2495.9347059252013                         Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:01 ( 4.03 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 100 logobjective: -3735.437336931283 Temperature: 0.9998636296729204 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9997278346783417 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 63 ℓH: -3735.678101730642 Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1868.144, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.373. NUTS sampler had 26 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 18.756 (79) number of steps and depth of 2.144 (6). Divergences in: Warmup: 26, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1869.526, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.303. NUTS sampler had 35 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 59.5 (15) number of steps and depth of 2.4 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 35, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.649, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3737.345. NUTS sampler had 23 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 11.978 (7) number of steps and depth of 1.944 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 23, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.745, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.437. NUTS sampler had 17 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 10.389 (63) number of steps and depth of 1.933 (5). Divergences in: Warmup: 17, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.155 │ 0.285 │ 0.085 │ -0.405 │ 0.04 │ 0.168 │ 0.299 │ 0.73 │ 11.331 │ 17.963 │ 1.324 │ │ σ │ 9.92 │ 0.272 │ 0.098 │ 9.455 │ 9.793 │ 9.973 │ 10.114 │ 10.318 │ 10.146 │ 5.633 │ 1.389 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Computing... 0%|▏ | ETA: 0:02:04 ( 0.31 s/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 102 logobjective: -1079.914977697063 Temperature: 0.289050497374996 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9998669223347451 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 127 ℓH: -1080.2099676413727                         Computing... 17%|████▎ | ETA: 0:00:04 (10.82 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 167 logobjective: -3721.9456348366807 Temperature: 0.9963157601005641 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.99763287914119 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 31 ℓH: -3722.9459795354273                         Computing... 33%|████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:02 ( 9.18 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 132 logobjective: -3329.66936131842 Temperature: 0.8909031788043871 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9978054396259818 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 31 ℓH: -3330.655760138902                         Computing... 65%|████████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 5.20 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 159 logobjective: -3707.3319351454106 Temperature: 0.9918374288468401 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9868612280537514 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 7 ℓH: -3707.570462031189                         Computing... 93%|███████████████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 3.88 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 173 logobjective: -3728.9900448502667 Temperature: 0.9979746796109501 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.990461887555034 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 15 ℓH: -3729.4919270803334                         Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:01 ( 3.66 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 200 logobjective: -3739.3863425718487 Temperature: 0.9998636296729204 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9883485726842672 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 15 ℓH: -3739.8052124135925 Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1868.376, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3734.964. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 26.222 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.889 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1868.224, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.511. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 80.933 (29) number of steps and depth of 4.3 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1868.899, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.32. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 26.889 (39) number of steps and depth of 4.089 (5). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1869.48, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3739.386. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 18.356 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.578 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.278 │ 0.274 │ 0.023 │ -0.259 │ 0.085 │ 0.304 │ 0.461 │ 0.796 │ 136.609 │ 131.956 │ 1.033 │ │ σ │ 10.007 │ 0.235 │ 0.015 │ 9.573 │ 9.852 │ 10.004 │ 10.163 │ 10.445 │ 259.157 │ 248.41 │ 1.009 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Computing... 0%|▏ | ETA: 0:02:16 ( 0.34 s/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1000 Avgℓobjective: -1080.8711792073886 Temperature: 0.289050497374996 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.22777723263088684 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 31%|███████▊ | ETA: 0:00:02 ( 6.39 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1030 Avgℓobjective: -3293.7059577044092 Temperature: 0.8807970779778823 ESS: 3.9995008079200467 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.09797252576917923 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 59%|██████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 3.87 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1058 Avgℓobjective: -3707.514682092979 Temperature: 0.9918374288468401 ESS: 3.999999574712392 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.14447993127184158 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 91%|██████████████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 2.78 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1091 Avgℓobjective: -3737.996550876899 Temperature: 0.9996965529699712 ESS: 3.9999999999347606 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.06602556871055021 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:01 ( 2.61 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1099 Avgℓobjective: -3737.9245738108393 Temperature: 0.9998636296729204 ESS: 3.9999999984462837 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.468115870511318 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1870.003, variance: 4.061 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -3737.925, variance: 0.255 Total number of jittering steps: 117. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.388, 0.145, 0.457, 0.652, 0.945]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.775]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.976, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.232 │ 0.345 │ 0.04 │ -0.411 │ -0.005 │ 0.213 │ 0.465 │ 0.926 │ 75.635 │ 95.695 │ 1.101 │ │ σ │ 10.005 │ 0.264 │ 0.016 │ 9.466 │ 9.837 │ 10.007 │ 10.191 │ 10.53 │ 253.704 │ 174.41 │ 1.034 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Computing... 59%|██████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 0.43 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1159 Avgℓobjective: -1548.4779721967636 Temperature: 0.9926084586557181 ESS: 3.9999931540272913 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9895377106661736 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:00 ( 0.78 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1199 Avgℓobjective: -1559.8999700721681 Temperature: 0.9998636296729204 ESS: 3.999999998963845 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.09199219205579551 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -790.061, variance: 6.089 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1559.9, variance: 1.671 Total number of jittering steps: 226. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.419, 0.093, 0.396, 0.836, 1.0]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.985, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ -0.026 │ 0.032 │ 0.002 │ -0.094 │ -0.048 │ -0.026 │ -0.005 │ 0.035 │ 176.094 │ 150.577 │ 1.037 │ │ σ │ 0.995 │ 0.03 │ 0.004 │ 0.942 │ 0.978 │ 0.994 │ 1.013 │ 1.056 │ 62.166 │ 45.068 │ 1.048 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Computing... 0%| | ETA: 0:10:42 ( 0.80 s/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1000 Avgℓobjective: -13600.871606312277 Temperature: 0.289050497374996 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: NaN generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 10%|██▍ | ETA: 0:00:17 (23.74 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 39 logobjective: -3521.6554883736417 Temperature: 0.9426758241011313 accepted: true acceptancerate: 6.201102197918519e-68 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3523.25759453783                         Computing... 14%|███▌ | ETA: 0:00:15 (22.28 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 56 logobjective: -3695.0348902225505 Temperature: 0.9890130573694068 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.5117042626942812e-153 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3695.6863836241428                         Computing... 20%|█████ | ETA: 0:00:11 (17.31 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 81 logobjective: -3737.1467547111542 Temperature: 0.9990889488055994 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.4624968307809133e-34 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -3738.4535630834735                         Computing... 23%|█████▋ | ETA: 0:00:10 (16.02 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 91 logobjective: -3734.6218404039073 Temperature: 0.9996646498695336 accepted: true acceptancerate: 5.056128107655764e-32 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -3734.9643556757455                         Computing... 25%|██████▎ | ETA: 0:00:09 (15.26 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1099 Avgℓobjective: -3737.7156411089045 Temperature: 0.9998636296729204 ESS: 3.9999999998221245 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9055949437174146 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 40%|██████████▏ | ETA: 0:00:07 (15.22 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1061 Avgℓobjective: -3715.5507046872553 Temperature: 0.9939401985084158 ESS: 3.9999996813733296 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8237139167294084 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 44%|██████████▉ | ETA: 0:00:07 (14.46 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 75 logobjective: -3731.95771266455 Temperature: 0.9983411989198255 accepted: true acceptancerate: 3.4453466954259286e-60 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -3732.019265511272                         Computing... 46%|███████████▋ | ETA: 0:00:06 (13.98 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 86 logobjective: -3737.0139486238922 Temperature: 0.9994472213630764 accepted: true acceptancerate: 6.647375911332528e-55 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 2 ℓH: -3737.372431904139                         Computing... 49%|████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:06 (13.59 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1094 Avgℓobjective: -3737.9705674877355 Temperature: 0.9997751832297667 ESS: 3.9999999988365147 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.022527694237228058 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 54%|█████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:05 (12.58 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1014 Avgℓobjective: -2283.2145943925734 Temperature: 0.598687660112452 ESS: 3.9059575599140377 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.06931189338329496 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 58%|██████████████▋ | ETA: 0:00:05 (14.04 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 34 logobjective: -3395.6457850722104 Temperature: 0.9088770389851438 accepted: true acceptancerate: 3.4995083260651576e-52 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 2 ℓH: -3397.0615814634075                         Computing... 59%|██████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:05 (14.38 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1034 Avgℓobjective: -3427.289270972252 Temperature: 0.9168273035060777 ESS: 3.999631134679723 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.2905378674002341 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 60%|██████████████▉ | ETA: 0:00:05 (14.65 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1037 Avgℓobjective: -3503.3021316780982 Temperature: 0.9370266439430035 ESS: 3.999918496551181 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.03015275867602396 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 60%|███████████████ | ETA: 0:00:05 (14.78 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1040 Avgℓobjective: -3560.7082302269537 Temperature: 0.9525741268224334 ESS: 3.9998986595609685 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.57242556297405 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 61%|███████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:05 (14.94 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1042 Avgℓobjective: -3591.8008798809324 Temperature: 0.9608342772032357 ESS: 3.999993077072309 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.0411714344549749 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 61%|███████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:05 (15.13 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 45 logobjective: -3617.005733620691 Temperature: 0.9677045353015495 accepted: true acceptancerate: 2.3654592782940594e-142 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 2 ℓH: -3617.5085958664267                         Computing... 70%|█████████████████▍ | ETA: 0:00:03 (13.79 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1077 Avgℓobjective: -3733.6917145378757 Temperature: 0.9987706013787226 ESS: 3.999999984849855 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.3010552181518103 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 73%|██████████████████▏ | ETA: 0:00:03 (13.42 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 91 logobjective: -3734.472448083331 Temperature: 0.9996646498695336 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.0010343761885664058 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -3735.2198832157974                         Computing... 75%|██████████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:03 (13.16 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 1 logobjective: -13600.858188416718 Temperature: 0.289050497374996 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.0 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -13601.789596045732                         Computing... 90%|██████████████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:01 (13.27 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 61 logobjective: -3710.314114067643 Temperature: 0.9933071490757153 accepted: true acceptancerate: 6.793801483049957e-8 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 2 ℓH: -3712.2977547357123                         Computing... 92%|███████████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:01 (13.18 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1066 Avgℓobjective: -3725.2747266714023 Temperature: 0.9963157601005641 ESS: 3.9999977455527005 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.3274732907053788 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 94%|███████████████████████▍ | ETA: 0:00:01 (13.07 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1073 Avgℓobjective: -3731.7113064499345 Temperature: 0.9981670610575072 ESS: 3.9999998327305732 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.02559007294288146 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 96%|████████████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:00 (12.86 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1083 Avgℓobjective: -3735.8949643290684 Temperature: 0.9993249172693672 ESS: 3.9999999892126965 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8759721515442791 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 98%|████████████████████████▋| ETA: 0:00:00 (12.70 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1093 Avgℓobjective: -3737.4751422112586 Temperature: 0.9997515449181605 ESS: 3.9999999994614868 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8434457551485005 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:10 (12.64 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1099 Avgℓobjective: -3737.9856827315293 Temperature: 0.9998636296729204 ESS: 3.999999999443175 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9089155567285022 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -4098.395, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.223. NUTS sampler had 53 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.556 (3) number of steps and depth of 0.711 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 47, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 6, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -4240.235, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3738.397. NUTS sampler had 51 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.767 (3) number of steps and depth of 0.833 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 42, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 9, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2092.83, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3734.939. NUTS sampler had 47 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.833 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.878 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 43, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 4, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -8745.287, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.284. NUTS sampler had 47 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.556 (3) number of steps and depth of 0.811 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 42, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 5, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -4093.29, variance: 30.459 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -3737.716, variance: 0.145 Total number of jittering steps: 192. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.564, 0.145, 0.454, 0.799, 0.946]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [1.0, 3.806, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 2: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -4081.176, variance: 83709.878 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -3738.42, variance: 2.191 Total number of jittering steps: 195. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.407, 0.011, 0.39, 0.676, 0.943]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.75, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [1.25, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 3: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -2087.519, variance: 29.908 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -3738.09, variance: 0.823 Total number of jittering steps: 196. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.523, 0.148, 0.437, 0.669, 0.959]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [2.546, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 4: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -8093.206, variance: 1.017982357e6 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -3737.986, variance: 0.382 Total number of jittering steps: 195. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.511, 0.057, 0.568, 0.823, 0.97]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [1.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.201 │ 0.308 │ 0.024 │ -0.345 │ -0.006 │ 0.153 │ 0.419 │ 0.817 │ 159.234 │ 161.926 │ 1.035 │ │ σ │ 9.508 │ 1.911 │ 0.471 │ 3.412 │ 9.765 │ 9.975 │ 10.151 │ 10.624 │ 37.747 │ 28.469 │ 1.083 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Computing... 0%| | ETA: 0:05:24 ( 0.41 s/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1100 Avgℓobjective: -937.7688287835126 Temperature: 0.289050497374996 ESS: 3.999999999910658 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.43461781368192964 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 8%|██ | ETA: 0:00:11 (14.64 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 132 logobjective: -1403.2895243209762 Temperature: 0.8909031788043871 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.830266189066085e-214 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1405.9887659118153                         Computing... 15%|███▊ | ETA: 0:00:06 ( 8.78 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 160 logobjective: -1562.7371940138698 Temperature: 0.9926084586557181 accepted: true acceptancerate: 2.3612739821344294e-39 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1565.752492921902                         Computing... 21%|█████▎ | ETA: 0:00:04 ( 6.85 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1183 Avgℓobjective: -1574.1151354466303 Temperature: 0.9993249172693672 ESS: 3.999999997648308 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.179461824161603 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 29%|███████▍ | ETA: 0:00:03 ( 5.42 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 118 logobjective: -1051.7652329281727 Temperature: 0.6681877721681662 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.05770526517655061 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -1052.5235797856049                         Computing... 36%|█████████▏ | ETA: 0:00:02 ( 4.72 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1145 Avgℓobjective: -1528.3909379752688 Temperature: 0.9706877692486436 ESS: 3.999997924377013 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.19949334311348688 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 44%|███████████ | ETA: 0:00:02 ( 4.21 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1175 Avgℓobjective: -1572.1947596700077 Temperature: 0.998498817743263 ESS: 3.9999999759121874 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.29442025853604986 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 52%|█████████████▏ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 3.77 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1109 Avgℓobjective: -838.0083493250496 Temperature: 0.47502081252106 ESS: 1.9665078501114772 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8112377579517236 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 61%|███████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 3.52 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1142 Avgℓobjective: -1515.696025816375 Temperature: 0.9608342772032357 ESS: 3.999184035313435 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.19684666142406415 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 69%|█████████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 3.29 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 176 logobjective: -1571.9480020870803 Temperature: 0.998498817743263 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.0359026929223765 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -1572.2383238005737                         Computing... 79%|███████████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 3.08 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 117 logobjective: -1017.7375658161618 Temperature: 0.6456563062257954 accepted: true acceptancerate: 3.5293993741364764e-21 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1018.2819328387278                         Computing... 87%|█████████████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 3.01 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1146 Avgℓobjective: -1533.5274320413523 Temperature: 0.973403006423134 ESS: 3.9999859022848305 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.2723453954860179 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 92%|███████████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 2.97 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1168 Avgℓobjective: -1571.9696984662996 Temperature: 0.9969815836752917 ESS: 3.999998233092392 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.7348828406463529 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 99%|████████████████████████▊| ETA: 0:00:00 ( 2.90 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 196 logobjective: -1573.8737271534374 Temperature: 0.9997965730219448 accepted: true acceptancerate: 9.026921982242411e-48 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -1574.1607042748462                         Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:02 ( 2.88 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1199 Avgℓobjective: -1574.1110214434111 Temperature: 0.9998636296729204 ESS: 3.9999999999258415 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9054270495970107 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -903.438, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1576.357. NUTS sampler had 45 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.689 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.9 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 39, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 6, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -928.707, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1575.285. NUTS sampler had 31 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.578 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.978 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 25, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 6, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -831.649, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1574.154. NUTS sampler had 49 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.611 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.822 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 37, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 12, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -788.049, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1574.505. NUTS sampler had 43 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.656 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.9 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 32, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 11, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1057.073, variance: 34.626 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1574.757, variance: 1.356 Total number of jittering steps: 125. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.567, 0.069, 0.419, 0.728, 0.974]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 6.55]. Quantiles for ESS: [2.386, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 2: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -879.491, variance: 1122.932 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1574.932, variance: 1.423 Total number of jittering steps: 186. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.542, 0.185, 0.614, 0.857, 0.992]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [2.967, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 3: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -826.988, variance: 136.81 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1574.63, variance: 0.22 Total number of jittering steps: 229. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.753, 0.13, 0.587, 0.83, 1.0]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [2.972, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 4: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -788.497, variance: 1.092 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1574.111, variance: 0.102 Total number of jittering steps: 150. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.545, 0.034, 0.366, 0.702, 0.979]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.992, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.031 │ 0.048 │ 0.003 │ -0.045 │ 0.006 │ 0.029 │ 0.049 │ 0.105 │ 321.709 │ 170.957 │ 1.007 │ │ σ │ 1.029 │ 0.124 │ 0.015 │ 0.969 │ 0.998 │ 1.014 │ 1.028 │ 1.185 │ 102.189 │ 44.807 │ 1.034 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Computing... 0%|▏ | ETA: 0:04:29 ( 0.68 s/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 1 logobjective: -1867.8799667514077 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.8663145909811866 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1867.8941454291996                         Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:01 ( 3.89 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 100 logobjective: -1868.7028090586434 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9999607625955212 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 15 ℓH: -1869.0950799838947 Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.993, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1868.032. NUTS sampler had 22 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 12.067 (47) number of steps and depth of 2.0 (5). Divergences in: Warmup: 22, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.954, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1867.938. NUTS sampler had 22 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 11.633 (47) number of steps and depth of 1.956 (5). Divergences in: Warmup: 22, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1868.704, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1868.629. NUTS sampler had 20 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 26.056 (7) number of steps and depth of 2.256 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 20, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1868.325, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1868.703. NUTS sampler had 18 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 10.844 (15) number of steps and depth of 2.0 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 18, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.134 │ 0.294 │ 0.092 │ -0.49 │ -0.055 │ 0.09 │ 0.362 │ 0.634 │ 10.454 │ 36.397 │ 1.38 │ │ σ │ 10.058 │ 0.257 │ 0.03 │ 9.566 │ 9.86 │ 10.002 │ 10.28 │ 10.474 │ 77.03 │ 173.527 │ 1.081 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Computing... 0%|▏ | ETA: 0:02:12 ( 0.33 s/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 101 logobjective: -1868.569334030872 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9986108298657382 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 31 ℓH: -1869.5546481329868                         Computing... 20%|█████ | ETA: 0:00:03 ( 9.57 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 120 logobjective: -1867.8109145154647 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9999706085424955 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 15 ℓH: -1868.0607333603762                         Computing... 46%|███████████▋ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 4.66 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 147 logobjective: -1867.9705427913477 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9995127152670585 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 47 ℓH: -1869.4283213028011                         Computing... 80%|████████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 3.03 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 180 logobjective: -1868.6310904998295 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9955747574070017 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 31 ℓH: -1869.167476897544                         Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:01 ( 2.58 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 200 logobjective: -1867.7840185398718 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9994690389044901 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 15 ℓH: -1868.74836988976 Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1868.856, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1868.143. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 18.6 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.622 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1868.474, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1868.244. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 29.756 (31) number of steps and depth of 4.311 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1869.062, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1867.972. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 25.244 (15) number of steps and depth of 4.056 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1867.788, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1867.784. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 20.4 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.644 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.262 │ 0.497 │ 0.056 │ -0.772 │ -0.093 │ 0.268 │ 0.595 │ 1.206 │ 76.912 │ 96.764 │ 1.048 │ │ σ │ 10.045 │ 0.305 │ 0.019 │ 9.518 │ 9.828 │ 10.024 │ 10.251 │ 10.641 │ 255.421 │ 272.288 │ 1.008 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Computing... 0%|▏ | ETA: 0:02:15 ( 0.34 s/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1000 Avgℓobjective: -1869.2856463891535 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9823001420538695 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 26%|██████▍ | ETA: 0:00:02 ( 8.38 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1025 Avgℓobjective: -1869.9891399739683 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.32584611095413935 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 40%|██████████ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 6.17 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1039 Avgℓobjective: -1869.5560909592484 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.31806235154299445 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 51%|████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 5.35 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1051 Avgℓobjective: -1869.8014740615472 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.6737451950473866 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 78%|███████████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 3.83 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1078 Avgℓobjective: -1869.2170624379319 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.6428232074780384 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:01 ( 3.19 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1099 Avgℓobjective: -1869.9486230551076 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.6034591689537387 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1869.732, variance: 1.325 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1869.949, variance: 1.401 Total number of jittering steps: 117. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.418, 0.076, 0.322, 0.684, 0.928]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.243 │ 0.422 │ 0.044 │ -0.583 │ -0.06 │ 0.252 │ 0.559 │ 1.046 │ 94.139 │ 129.864 │ 1.014 │ │ σ │ 10.037 │ 0.34 │ 0.022 │ 9.4 │ 9.796 │ 10.038 │ 10.279 │ 10.655 │ 242.661 │ 189.737 │ 1.017 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Computing... 58%|██████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 0.44 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1158 Avgℓobjective: -787.4490182449159 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.3438351234782876 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:00 ( 0.75 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1199 Avgℓobjective: -788.5307634639648 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8083091362250122 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -788.155, variance: 0.857 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -788.531, variance: 1.558 Total number of jittering steps: 201. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.067, 0.332, 0.625, 0.838, 0.959]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 7.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.017 │ 0.048 │ 0.005 │ -0.076 │ -0.015 │ 0.014 │ 0.053 │ 0.107 │ 95.393 │ 74.252 │ 1.024 │ │ σ │ 1.014 │ 0.028 │ 0.003 │ 0.97 │ 0.993 │ 1.011 │ 1.033 │ 1.075 │ 116.915 │ 82.666 │ 1.019 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Computing... 0%| | ETA: 0:11:57 ( 0.90 s/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1000 Avgℓobjective: -22973.66692718849 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: NaN generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 13%|███▎ | ETA: 0:00:13 (18.79 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1012 Avgℓobjective: -5168.1376392879065 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8788613764867206 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 23%|█████▊ | ETA: 0:00:15 (23.99 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1023 Avgℓobjective: -1884.8685887749925 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.506129419802925 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 24%|██████ | ETA: 0:00:14 (23.81 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 25 logobjective: -1927.6383185893078 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.0 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1928.3860460927772                         Computing... 25%|██████▎ | ETA: 0:00:14 (23.49 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1024 Avgℓobjective: -1871.2281856197565 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.09709702065402553 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 27%|██████▊ | ETA: 0:00:14 (23.38 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1026 Avgℓobjective: -2005.6044770941974 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8804024420683862 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 32%|███████▉ | ETA: 0:00:12 (21.48 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 32 logobjective: -1867.9691838651459 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 2.0430063177701374e-35 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1868.857317843145                         Computing... 33%|████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:11 (20.99 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1032 Avgℓobjective: -1869.1554871003123 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.32809425347681104 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 34%|████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:11 (20.69 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 35 logobjective: -1868.2598105739842 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.003570707945364059 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -1868.8285758594225                         Computing... 35%|████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:11 (20.63 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 36 logobjective: -1868.2323213832628 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.00021969071752539002 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1868.9681869541305                         Computing... 36%|█████████ | ETA: 0:00:11 (20.70 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1035 Avgℓobjective: -1965.3775608333704 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.23549265980260425 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 40%|█████████▉ | ETA: 0:00:09 (19.35 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 40 logobjective: -1868.4587976503708 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.0214302556313933e-5 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -1870.6773702224045                         Computing... 42%|██████████▍ | ETA: 0:00:09 (18.84 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1041 Avgℓobjective: -1869.9705229526007 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.4931829918462811 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 43%|██████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:08 (18.39 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1043 Avgℓobjective: -1870.8087936449788 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.7047013365606914 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 45%|███████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:08 (17.97 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1044 Avgℓobjective: -1870.3050188662462 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.09975347837670212 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 47%|███████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:07 (17.56 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 47 logobjective: -1871.454595607271 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 2.295903648776543e-5 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -1873.5077035046038                         Computing... 49%|████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:07 (17.03 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1049 Avgℓobjective: -1870.013941949326 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.6112118014319443 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 51%|████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:06 (16.63 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1051 Avgℓobjective: -1870.2357141145874 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.2566122151332823 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 53%|█████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:06 (16.30 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1053 Avgℓobjective: -1870.1229458864102 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.31860402091500906 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 55%|█████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:06 (16.37 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1054 Avgℓobjective: -1870.4349325151347 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.12693589359434887 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 59%|██████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:05 (15.83 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 59 logobjective: -1868.2068311587655 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.5990787301030855e-129 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1872.8946889492008                         Computing... 60%|███████████████▏ | ETA: 0:00:05 (15.69 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 61 logobjective: -1868.1048255025446 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.25536710375731925 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -1868.729917306268                         Computing... 63%|███████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:04 (15.25 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 64 logobjective: -1867.7294875969635 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 4.6253683367061554e-11 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1868.2021497742435                         Computing... 66%|████████████████▍ | ETA: 0:00:04 (14.91 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1065 Avgℓobjective: -1869.7369500904601 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.04790391664971505 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 68%|████████████████▉ | ETA: 0:00:04 (14.75 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 68 logobjective: -1872.5423980738497 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 9.533330084489903e-48 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1873.6792240088116                         Computing... 69%|█████████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:04 (14.69 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 69 logobjective: -1868.8357191455357 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.0693460133579265e-19 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1869.0371514322364                         Computing... 70%|█████████████████▋ | ETA: 0:00:03 (14.55 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1070 Avgℓobjective: -1869.3760422262576 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.09410698391911221 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 73%|██████████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:03 (14.26 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 73 logobjective: -1867.716999682511 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.3333333333333333 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -1868.3772857828126                         Computing... 75%|██████████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:03 (14.06 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 76 logobjective: -1868.104230648531 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.21575757535558826 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -1868.733882180651                         Computing... 77%|███████████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:03 (14.04 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1076 Avgℓobjective: -1869.438614773673 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.3602769975978128 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 78%|███████████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:02 (14.03 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1077 Avgℓobjective: -1869.2234899727487 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.7746124885668124 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 80%|████████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:02 (13.85 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1079 Avgℓobjective: -1869.1874836126133 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8874530266846465 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 82%|████████████████████▍ | ETA: 0:00:02 (13.79 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1081 Avgℓobjective: -1870.1720220472798 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.1871790895811885 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 84%|█████████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:02 (13.58 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1083 Avgℓobjective: -1869.9412689585201 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.3756612654182675 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 86%|█████████████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:02 (13.45 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1085 Avgℓobjective: -1870.32783784353 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.5840516089670094 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 88%|█████████████████████▉ | ETA: 0:00:01 (13.33 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1087 Avgℓobjective: -1869.5524571758406 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.6621565823476474 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 89%|██████████████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:01 (13.26 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 90 logobjective: -1868.102697018502 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.00046195364483863586 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1868.3799219038438                         Computing... 90%|██████████████████████▋ | ETA: 0:00:01 (13.22 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1090 Avgℓobjective: -1869.6770796002286 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.5107964809226785 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 93%|███████████████████████▏ | ETA: 0:00:01 (13.09 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 93 logobjective: -1867.705644708064 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.00762646564924041 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1868.3964336413142                         Computing... 94%|███████████████████████▋ | ETA: 0:00:01 (13.00 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1094 Avgℓobjective: -1869.3800257312942 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.18115489668063758 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 97%|████████████████████████▎| ETA: 0:00:00 (12.81 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1097 Avgℓobjective: -1871.2091929866572 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.46461325165761663 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 99%|████████████████████████▊| ETA: 0:00:00 (12.71 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1099 Avgℓobjective: -1871.630489452549 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.6760041194202081 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:10 (12.68 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1099 Avgℓobjective: -1869.5014787622765 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.04143695120250035 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -12953.685, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1868.566. NUTS sampler had 39 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 2.033 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.911 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 36, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 3, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -3981.108, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1867.754. NUTS sampler had 41 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.856 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.867 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 37, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 4, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -8673.705, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1868.127. NUTS sampler had 36 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 2.022 (3) number of steps and depth of 0.911 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 33, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 3, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -8959.703, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1869.123. NUTS sampler had 37 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 2.089 (3) number of steps and depth of 0.944 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 33, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 4, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -10426.685, variance: 7.272574302e6 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1871.63, variance: 0.353 Total number of jittering steps: 191. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.409, 0.145, 0.522, 0.72, 0.966]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 8.775]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 2: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -6122.054, variance: 1.5989613485e7 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1869.912, variance: 1.308 Total number of jittering steps: 265. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.326, 0.138, 0.495, 0.782, 0.966]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 3: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -8329.162, variance: 2.612735863e7 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1870.057, variance: 2.694 Total number of jittering steps: 239. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.489, 0.174, 0.561, 0.846, 0.977]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 4: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -6337.598, variance: 2.1188930828e7 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1869.501, variance: 0.572 Total number of jittering steps: 151. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.464, 0.133, 0.575, 0.835, 0.971]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 6.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.266 │ 0.428 │ 0.026 │ -0.533 │ 0.016 │ 0.202 │ 0.56 │ 1.162 │ 290.086 │ 97.004 │ 1.016 │ │ σ │ 9.25 │ 2.391 │ 0.365 │ 2.307 │ 9.675 │ 9.976 │ 10.221 │ 10.769 │ 115.568 │ 56.951 │ 1.04 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Computing... 0%| | ETA: 0:06:03 ( 0.46 s/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1100 Avgℓobjective: -1455.188153204078 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.11253800338883668 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 6%|█▌ | ETA: 0:00:17 (22.54 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1105 Avgℓobjective: -798.478367572332 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9406572106629059 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 9%|██▍ | ETA: 0:00:11 (15.85 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 110 logobjective: -783.0747687775068 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 4.981984261827632e-26 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -783.5262685594182                         Computing... 16%|████ | ETA: 0:00:07 (10.00 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 117 logobjective: -780.4684927917561 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.4383117822777072e-9 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -781.0026259937996                         Computing... 31%|███████▊ | ETA: 0:00:03 ( 5.62 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1130 Avgℓobjective: -780.5820435605829 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.15545476376540418 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 46%|███████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:02 ( 4.05 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 147 logobjective: -780.7312592717713 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 5.882905100393082e-10 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -781.0818197415146                         Computing... 61%|███████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 3.27 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1161 Avgℓobjective: -780.4379844419208 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.5356256335595362 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 80%|████████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 2.65 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1180 Avgℓobjective: -781.3692952595588 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.973178494208133 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 99%|████████████████████████▊| ETA: 0:00:00 ( 2.28 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 200 logobjective: -780.5443315394377 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 7.323261578162467e-51 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -781.8863564471117                         Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:01 ( 2.26 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1199 Avgℓobjective: -780.8554534376754 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.3581336159018975 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -783.872, Avg. final ℓposterior: -780.544. NUTS sampler had 29 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.7 (1) number of steps and depth of 1.0 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 24, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 5, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -780.575, Avg. final ℓposterior: -780.196. NUTS sampler had 28 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.644 (1) number of steps and depth of 1.022 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 22, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 6, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -783.701, Avg. final ℓposterior: -780.206. NUTS sampler had 32 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.778 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.978 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 26, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 6, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -781.244, Avg. final ℓposterior: -780.505. NUTS sampler had 26 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.667 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.989 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 23, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 3, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -799.697, variance: 1339.984 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -781.666, variance: 2.061 Total number of jittering steps: 193. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.41, 0.199, 0.536, 0.798, 0.966]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 8.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 2: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -794.661, variance: 759.6 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -780.469, variance: 0.198 Total number of jittering steps: 121. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.289, 0.155, 0.54, 0.722, 0.957]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 3: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -789.035, variance: 277.561 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -780.76, variance: 0.366 Total number of jittering steps: 158. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.237, 0.267, 0.612, 0.848, 0.96]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 4.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 4: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -781.437, variance: 0.732 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -780.855, variance: 1.268 Total number of jittering steps: 94. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.585, -0.03, 0.253, 0.577, 0.906]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ -0.073 │ 0.041 │ 0.002 │ -0.15 │ -0.103 │ -0.077 │ -0.042 │ 0.006 │ 280.196 │ 299.249 │ 1.001 │ │ σ │ 0.999 │ 0.034 │ 0.002 │ 0.942 │ 0.981 │ 0.999 │ 1.021 │ 1.051 │ 239.341 │ 259.2 │ 1.012 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Computing... 0%|▏ | ETA: 0:04:30 ( 0.68 s/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 1 logobjective: -1868.1259984399285 Temperature: 0.5 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.25017795818851435 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -1868.5039789215746                         Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:01 ( 4.17 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 100 logobjective: -2044.0363103256977 Temperature: 0.5460980646457352 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9999354448413731 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 127 ℓH: -2044.5970601027022 Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1885.976, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2040.15. NUTS sampler had 22 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 18.689 (127) number of steps and depth of 2.122 (6). Divergences in: Warmup: 22, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1886.578, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2042.236. NUTS sampler had 27 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 15.611 (31) number of steps and depth of 2.089 (5). Divergences in: Warmup: 27, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1886.002, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2040.588. NUTS sampler had 29 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 20.589 (15) number of steps and depth of 2.111 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 29, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1885.84, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2044.036. NUTS sampler had 16 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 34.844 (127) number of steps and depth of 2.367 (6). Divergences in: Warmup: 16, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.208 │ 0.302 │ 0.068 │ -0.331 │ 0.055 │ 0.203 │ 0.296 │ 1.022 │ 15.415 │ 21.588 │ 1.263 │ │ σ │ 10.049 │ 0.307 │ 0.054 │ 9.586 │ 9.849 │ 9.995 │ 10.259 │ 10.626 │ 40.749 │ 20.094 │ 1.109 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Computing... 0%|▏ | ETA: 0:02:15 ( 0.34 s/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 101 logobjective: -2041.8451445979915 Temperature: 0.5465413282544795 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9997426135173805 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 111 ℓH: -2042.9628712872404                         Computing... 11%|██▊ | ETA: 0:00:06 (17.45 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 112 logobjective: -2060.4220770465445 Temperature: 0.5513887510222641 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9999592783759707 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 15 ℓH: -2060.4897638907805                         Computing... 22%|█████▌ | ETA: 0:00:03 (10.46 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 122 logobjective: -2077.34636250316 Temperature: 0.5557505179950155 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.997861047917637 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 15 ℓH: -2077.526764927874                         Computing... 43%|██████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 6.10 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 143 logobjective: -2109.785185248678 Temperature: 0.5647726803812159 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9999999999999999 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 7 ℓH: -2110.2966796791507                         Computing... 80%|███████████████████▉ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 3.64 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 180 logobjective: -2168.1774467412147 Temperature: 0.5802253576415594 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9998908231886368 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 15 ℓH: -2169.99126338182                         Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:01 ( 3.03 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 200 logobjective: -2199.555211194648 Temperature: 0.5883484625830675 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.9868989599222585 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 23 ℓH: -2200.492433211325 Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2058.772, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2201.15. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 19.6 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.667 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2059.377, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2197.999. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 21.467 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.644 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2059.128, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2199.59. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 33.489 (3) number of steps and depth of 4.189 (2). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2058.129, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2199.555. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 35.911 (23) number of steps and depth of 4.089 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.311 │ 0.38 │ 0.037 │ -0.465 │ 0.069 │ 0.301 │ 0.508 │ 1.142 │ 112.346 │ 85.324 │ 1.018 │ │ σ │ 10.048 │ 0.289 │ 0.022 │ 9.536 │ 9.855 │ 10.04 │ 10.25 │ 10.643 │ 174.746 │ 193.803 │ 1.014 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Computing... 0%|▏ | ETA: 0:02:29 ( 0.37 s/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1000 Avgℓobjective: -1869.1138320694351 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.7306022417320018 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 26%|██████▍ | ETA: 0:00:03 ( 8.51 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1025 Avgℓobjective: -1914.6317266609885 Temperature: 0.5120650453944637 ESS: 3.999999792735914 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.579365421444566 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 47%|███████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 5.72 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1046 Avgℓobjective: -1952.3507778819805 Temperature: 0.5219744061763523 ESS: 3.9999995973593214 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.1440269203745808 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 58%|██████████████▍ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 5.11 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1057 Avgℓobjective: -1970.9985856747671 Temperature: 0.5270844466088458 ESS: 3.9999979214630494 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8906710016872528 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 86%|█████████████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 3.80 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1086 Avgℓobjective: -2019.679731066325 Temperature: 0.5402960530462416 ESS: 3.9999991201483303 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.7437029373477391 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:01 ( 3.42 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1099 Avgℓobjective: -2043.3361829315572 Temperature: 0.5460980646457352 ESS: 3.9999999407483733 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.4759801679191281 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1887.914, variance: 0.14 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -2043.336, variance: 6.201 Total number of jittering steps: 120. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.421, 0.008, 0.354, 0.742, 0.974]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.775]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.275 │ 0.357 │ 0.035 │ -0.439 │ 0.05 │ 0.3 │ 0.538 │ 0.889 │ 110.101 │ 99.456 │ 1.046 │ │ σ │ 10.046 │ 0.306 │ 0.018 │ 9.47 │ 9.808 │ 10.048 │ 10.253 │ 10.652 │ 269.321 │ 175.906 │ 1.026 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Computing... 53%|█████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 0.48 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1152 Avgℓobjective: -892.1838049616442 Temperature: 0.5690043178015397 ESS: 3.999999948817593 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.897323745012593 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:00 ( 1.13 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1199 Avgℓobjective: -922.2384485679237 Temperature: 0.5883484625830675 ESS: 3.9999982426125498 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.11059342999140956 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -864.827, variance: 2.741 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -922.238, variance: 0.106 Total number of jittering steps: 226. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.455, 0.104, 0.432, 0.769, 1.0]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ -0.009 │ 0.042 │ 0.003 │ -0.089 │ -0.033 │ -0.007 │ 0.017 │ 0.078 │ 146.136 │ 140.362 │ 1.061 │ │ σ │ 1.0 │ 0.03 │ 0.003 │ 0.947 │ 0.975 │ 0.999 │ 1.021 │ 1.06 │ 97.542 │ 74.518 │ 1.098 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Computing... 0%| | ETA: 0:11:23 ( 0.86 s/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1000 Avgℓobjective: -24126.353531121742 Temperature: 0.5 ESS: 4.0 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: NaN generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 18%|████▍ | ETA: 0:00:14 (20.94 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 18 logobjective: -2927.259653359007 Temperature: 0.5082362469666039 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.0 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -2927.635324343623                         Computing... 19%|████▊ | ETA: 0:00:13 (20.20 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1018 Avgℓobjective: -3027.007152610879 Temperature: 0.5087164850066754 ESS: 3.270776833411365 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9545074175323276 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 20%|█████ | ETA: 0:00:14 (21.98 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1020 Avgℓobjective: -1913.649382652812 Temperature: 0.5096755545974264 ESS: 3.999324134460859 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.9430801975237519 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 21%|█████▎ | ETA: 0:00:16 (24.95 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 21 logobjective: -2207.3064285373043 Temperature: 0.5096755545974264 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.0 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -2209.5778102347135                         Computing... 22%|█████▌ | ETA: 0:00:16 (26.28 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1021 Avgℓobjective: -1978.198691330665 Temperature: 0.5101543870636398 ESS: 3.7376436503742365 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.3820624408888612 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 23%|█████▊ | ETA: 0:00:16 (26.05 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1022 Avgℓobjective: -1909.1901366758618 Temperature: 0.510632751920023 ESS: 3.9539628126471156 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.6803215086639937 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 24%|██████▏ | ETA: 0:00:15 (25.51 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 25 logobjective: -1911.8613842815503 Temperature: 0.5115880806294534 accepted: true acceptancerate: 6.85269356157636e-14 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -1914.3121995924657                         Computing... 25%|██████▎ | ETA: 0:00:16 (26.34 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 26 logobjective: -1913.9554365312474 Temperature: 0.5120650453944637 accepted: true acceptancerate: 1.5103738776431722e-14 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1914.5680833803435                         Computing... 28%|██████▉ | ETA: 0:00:15 (26.07 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 28 logobjective: -1917.0541190533706 Temperature: 0.5130175780216433 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.16071483503078224 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 5 ℓH: -1919.4431382330456                         Computing... 28%|███████ | ETA: 0:00:15 (26.16 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 29 logobjective: -1918.0708626608084 Temperature: 0.5134931467931065 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.3333333333333333 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -1918.154211003862                         Computing... 30%|███████▌ | ETA: 0:00:14 (24.75 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1030 Avgℓobjective: -1923.8247823135416 Temperature: 0.5144428915216857 ESS: 3.99999891493882 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.06183376656135378 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 34%|████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:12 (22.43 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1033 Avgℓobjective: -1928.9829148451474 Temperature: 0.5158640333751106 ESS: 3.9999855982640566 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.2537065794164747 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 40%|██████████ | ETA: 0:00:09 (19.27 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1040 Avgℓobjective: -1942.3774437593995 Temperature: 0.5191638764813176 ESS: 3.9999997611727496 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.19794863015047898 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 49%|████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:07 (16.12 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1048 Avgℓobjective: -1954.9408449777427 Temperature: 0.5229075940335577 ESS: 3.999998895885759 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.6619205765480762 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 57%|██████████████▏ | ETA: 0:00:05 (14.21 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 57 logobjective: -1967.5703704164087 Temperature: 0.5266221635654528 accepted: true acceptancerate: 5.733334501093203e-13 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -1969.101986549319                         Computing... 63%|███████████████▊ | ETA: 0:00:04 (12.95 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 64 logobjective: -1982.561435479925 Temperature: 0.5298486798705302 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.10498443058268235 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -1984.8659612891738                         Computing... 70%|█████████████████▍ | ETA: 0:00:03 (11.97 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1069 Avgℓobjective: -1991.7261719014607 Temperature: 0.5325967559441706 ESS: 3.9999987072404735 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.7038472789466493 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 76%|███████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:02 (11.10 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 77 logobjective: -2001.6088507542584 Temperature: 0.5357825497687208 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.08232114234579588 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -2001.714909057158                         Computing... 83%|████████████████████▋ | ETA: 0:00:01 (10.40 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 83 logobjective: -2018.668533386168 Temperature: 0.5384959418476701 accepted: true acceptancerate: 7.647030340206043e-27 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -2018.9152306840238                         Computing... 88%|██████████████████████ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 9.91 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 89 logobjective: -2021.698277256848 Temperature: 0.5411934739097883 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.19699826485303176 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 3 ℓH: -2021.709468458561                         Computing... 94%|███████████████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 9.45 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1093 Avgℓobjective: -2031.9614275620324 Temperature: 0.5434293689013447 ESS: 3.9999997246830286 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.5550208794188939 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:07 ( 9.00 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1099 Avgℓobjective: -2041.451788801196 Temperature: 0.5460980646457352 ESS: 3.9999998502975127 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.8075792018177325 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -5178.822, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2039.855. NUTS sampler had 30 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 2.1 (3) number of steps and depth of 0.956 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 28, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 2, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -8730.038, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2039.972. NUTS sampler had 29 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 2.133 (6) number of steps and depth of 1.0 (2). Divergences in: Warmup: 28, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 1, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -6330.262, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2040.178. NUTS sampler had 36 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 2.056 (7) number of steps and depth of 0.978 (2). Divergences in: Warmup: 31, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 5, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -6549.108, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2039.921. NUTS sampler had 36 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.711 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.867 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 33, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 3, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -5052.002, variance: 2.231030527e6 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -2041.752, variance: 0.618 Total number of jittering steps: 137. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.266, 0.248, 0.557, 0.762, 0.975]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 6.55]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.229, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 2: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -7488.147, variance: 402225.899 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -2042.68, variance: 2.452 Total number of jittering steps: 151. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.275, 0.165, 0.55, 0.744, 0.967]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 5.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.42, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 3: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -5683.811, variance: 2.837471615e6 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -2042.067, variance: 0.741 Total number of jittering steps: 179. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.302, 0.213, 0.562, 0.785, 0.958]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 6.775]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.446, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 4: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -6504.139, variance: 114464.623 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -2041.452, variance: 0.054 Total number of jittering steps: 219. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.524, 0.054, 0.398, 0.798, 0.973]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.253, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.224 │ 0.397 │ 0.04 │ -0.491 │ -0.031 │ 0.215 │ 0.484 │ 1.012 │ 113.829 │ 147.77 │ 1.051 │ │ σ │ 9.706 │ 2.796 │ 0.234 │ 3.41 │ 9.735 │ 9.986 │ 10.212 │ 10.627 │ 114.527 │ 43.327 │ 1.027 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Computing... 0%| | ETA: 0:06:09 ( 0.46 s/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1100 Avgℓobjective: -1146.324842775106 Temperature: 0.5465413282544795 ESS: 3.9999987773896986 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.18933763336825563 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 14%|███▍ | ETA: 0:00:07 ( 9.52 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1113 Avgℓobjective: -864.6073245445675 Temperature: 0.5522645170388976 ESS: 3.999998850265209 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.35006092590886473 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 29%|███████▎ | ETA: 0:00:03 ( 4.93 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1128 Avgℓobjective: -874.4419141406108 Temperature: 0.5587784970994184 ESS: 3.999996490174633 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.06031364556880103 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 45%|███████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 3.42 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1145 Avgℓobjective: -885.5075041379176 Temperature: 0.566046515629149 ESS: 3.999996861040643 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.6576647710299983 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 62%|███████████████▍ | ETA: 0:00:01 ( 2.72 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 162 logobjective: -899.6704817247486 Temperature: 0.572777602395081 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.0 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -900.1897848281398                         Computing... 78%|███████████████████▌ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 2.33 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1177 Avgℓobjective: -906.583070300223 Temperature: 0.5794042827426242 ESS: 3.999999644743512 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: -0.7056498422311166 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing                   Computing... 93%|███████████████████████▎ | ETA: 0:00:00 ( 2.11 ms/it) mcmc: diagnostics iter: 194 logobjective: -918.6498726934768 Temperature: 0.5859281761279792 accepted: true acceptancerate: 0.0 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing NUTS: diagnostics ϵ: 0.1 steps: 1 ℓH: -918.7350044209427                         Computing... 100%|█████████████████████████| Time: 0:00:01 ( 2.03 ms/it) smc: diagnostics iter: 1199 Avgℓobjective: -920.6526910343398 Temperature: 0.5883484625830675 ESS: 3.999999455881023 resampled: true AvgJitterCorrelation: 0.34237208087756976 generated: nothing generated_algorithm: nothing Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -862.338, Avg. final ℓposterior: -922.399. NUTS sampler had 34 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.767 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.978 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 27, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 7, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -863.163, Avg. final ℓposterior: -923.97. NUTS sampler had 36 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.711 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.989 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 31, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 5, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -869.256, Avg. final ℓposterior: -919.903. NUTS sampler had 29 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.567 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.967 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 23, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 6, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 90 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -861.543, Avg. final ℓposterior: -920.379. NUTS sampler had 49 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 1.844 (1) number of steps and depth of 0.944 (1). Divergences in: Warmup: 42, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 7, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -862.919, variance: 2.474 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -920.467, variance: 0.849 Total number of jittering steps: 106. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.441, 0.14, 0.45, 0.672, 0.962]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 2: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -862.703, variance: 0.352 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -921.865, variance: 3.238 Total number of jittering steps: 97. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.687, -0.008, 0.269, 0.569, 0.931]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 3: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -863.255, variance: 5.663 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -920.483, variance: 0.489 Total number of jittering steps: 120. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.665, 0.039, 0.352, 0.735, 0.925]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ########################################## Chain 4: SMC Diagnostics: SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 90 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -861.968, variance: 0.131 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -920.653, variance: 0.638 Total number of jittering steps: 207. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.61, -0.045, 0.42, 0.781, 0.974]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ -0.033 │ 0.041 │ 0.003 │ -0.116 │ -0.061 │ -0.032 │ -0.003 │ 0.043 │ 222.887 │ 231.526 │ 1.011 │ │ σ │ 1.002 │ 0.031 │ 0.002 │ 0.943 │ 0.979 │ 1.0 │ 1.024 │ 1.059 │ 229.834 │ 289.027 │ 1.014 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -382.679, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2253.102. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 15.092 (23) number of steps and depth of 3.308 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -383.528, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2253.507. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 15.572 (23) number of steps and depth of 3.36 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -383.993, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2253.653. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 14.756 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.262 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -384.153, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2253.756. NUTS sampler had 1 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 15.524 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.352 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 1, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.181 │ 0.536 │ 0.032 │ -0.927 │ -0.175 │ 0.202 │ 0.531 │ 1.185 │ 299.283 │ 249.612 │ 1.024 │ │ σ │ 10.308 │ 0.507 │ 0.052 │ 9.116 │ 10.038 │ 10.332 │ 10.618 │ 11.208 │ 111.471 │ 83.876 │ 1.025 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 400. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 400 Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2258.211, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.639. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 16.13 (7) number of steps and depth of 3.445 (2). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2257.081, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3737.115. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 18.125 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.592 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2256.878, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3736.134. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 15.385 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.4 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -2256.693, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.522. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 14.62 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.342 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.181 │ 0.358 │ 0.024 │ -0.515 │ -0.076 │ 0.189 │ 0.424 │ 0.905 │ 217.664 │ 335.817 │ 1.026 │ │ σ │ 10.094 │ 0.281 │ 0.043 │ 9.594 │ 9.89 │ 10.083 │ 10.281 │ 10.704 │ 43.749 │ 602.8 │ 1.064 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -386.829, variance: 3.98 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -2256.246, variance: 0.57 Total number of jittering steps: 545. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.622, 0.06, 0.358, 0.669, 0.92]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.869, 3.988, 3.995, 3.998, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.191 │ 0.541 │ 0.035 │ -0.966 │ -0.139 │ 0.223 │ 0.563 │ 1.185 │ 253.726 │ 302.163 │ 1.028 │ │ σ │ 10.323 │ 0.519 │ 0.05 │ 9.046 │ 10.058 │ 10.352 │ 10.629 │ 11.261 │ 124.543 │ 90.461 │ 1.035 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1934.497, variance: 457.537 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1569.273, variance: 1.06 Total number of jittering steps: 562. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.783, 0.009, 0.368, 0.69, 0.934]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.939, 3.994, 3.998, 3.999, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.086 │ 0.068 │ 0.003 │ -0.001 │ 0.057 │ 0.083 │ 0.107 │ 0.162 │ 48.63 │ 381.837 │ 1.062 │ │ σ │ 1.082 │ 0.728 │ 0.04 │ 0.949 │ 0.986 │ 1.003 │ 1.021 │ 1.06 │ 775.443 │ 642.105 │ 1.015 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel SMC2Kernel Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 97.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -158.388, variance: 4.156 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -972.338, variance: 1.3 Total number of jittering steps: 89. Rejuvenations on average every 33.333 step, every 20.833 steps in first half, every 83.333 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.336, -0.117, 0.011, 0.168, 0.562]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.35, 4.0, 6.0, 9.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [2.977, 3.426, 3.682, 3.877, 3.988] for 4 chains. ┌────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ1 │ -0.323 │ 0.836 │ 0.236 │ -2.22 │ -0.635 │ -0.273 │ 0.262 │ 0.912 │ 10.778 │ 46.267 │ 1.291 │ │ μ2 │ 1.953 │ 0.091 │ 0.014 │ 1.765 │ 1.886 │ 1.945 │ 2.027 │ 2.102 │ 38.335 │ 30.142 │ 1.261 │ │ σ1 │ 2.004 │ 0.497 │ 0.076 │ 1.414 │ 1.79 │ 1.933 │ 2.151 │ 3.089 │ 34.574 │ 33.927 │ 1.082 │ │ σ2 │ 0.985 │ 0.061 │ 0.01 │ 0.839 │ 0.96 │ 0.981 │ 1.028 │ 1.106 │ 31.678 │ 45.277 │ 1.17 │ │ p1 │ 0.136 │ 0.049 │ 0.018 │ 0.057 │ 0.095 │ 0.132 │ 0.177 │ 0.24 │ 8.033 │ 51.341 │ 1.454 │ │ p2 │ 0.864 │ 0.049 │ 0.018 │ 0.76 │ 0.823 │ 0.868 │ 0.905 │ 0.943 │ 8.033 │ 20.781 │ 1.454 │ └────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel SMC2Kernel Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 98.6%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -975.086, variance: 1.418 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1587.685, variance: 1.246 Total number of jittering steps: 60. Rejuvenations on average every 71.429 step, every 50.0 steps in first half, every 125.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [0.031, 0.36, 0.454, 0.494, 0.757]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [3.6, 8.5, 10.0, 10.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.077, 3.353, 3.653, 3.805, 3.976] for 4 chains. ┌────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ1 │ -0.075 │ 0.117 │ 0.028 │ -0.286 │ -0.127 │ -0.073 │ -0.041 │ 0.21 │ 19.997 │ 21.871 │ 1.166 │ │ μ2 │ 0.804 │ 0.537 │ 0.22 │ -0.221 │ 0.289 │ 0.776 │ 1.25 │ 1.889 │ 5.986 │ 8.815 │ 1.809 │ │ σ1 │ 0.984 │ 0.145 │ 0.021 │ 0.834 │ 0.91 │ 0.96 │ 1.043 │ 1.079 │ 9.369 │ 38.388 │ 1.376 │ │ σ2 │ 0.94 │ 0.087 │ 0.022 │ 0.817 │ 0.851 │ 0.925 │ 0.994 │ 1.096 │ 14.796 │ NaN │ 1.294 │ │ p1 │ 0.782 │ 0.125 │ 0.027 │ 0.55 │ 0.738 │ 0.802 │ 0.861 │ 0.914 │ 9.67 │ NaN │ 1.333 │ │ p2 │ 0.218 │ 0.125 │ 0.027 │ 0.086 │ 0.139 │ 0.198 │ 0.262 │ 0.45 │ 9.67 │ 10.794 │ 1.333 │ └────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -111.004, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2253.041. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 15.252 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.344 (5). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -110.669, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2253.044. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 15.624 (19) number of steps and depth of 3.356 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -111.115, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2253.771. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 15.62 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.336 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -110.614, Avg. final ℓposterior: -2253.026. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.624 (7) number of steps and depth of 3.468 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.225 │ 0.541 │ 0.032 │ -0.841 │ -0.115 │ 0.219 │ 0.553 │ 1.329 │ 289.952 │ 381.955 │ 1.03 │ │ σ │ 10.315 │ 0.534 │ 0.053 │ 9.025 │ 10.034 │ 10.331 │ 10.658 │ 11.284 │ 120.301 │ 80.088 │ 1.039 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 400. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 400 Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -652.4, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.876. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 15.35 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.37 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -652.592, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3735.681. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.895 (19) number of steps and depth of 3.52 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -652.279, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3737.594. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.1 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.535 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -652.692, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3737.473. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.52 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.475 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.143 │ 0.348 │ 0.024 │ -0.552 │ -0.082 │ 0.146 │ 0.362 │ 0.873 │ 211.032 │ 238.41 │ 1.01 │ │ σ │ 10.091 │ 0.284 │ 0.039 │ 9.571 │ 9.899 │ 10.073 │ 10.269 │ 10.693 │ 55.002 │ 534.63 │ 1.057 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -111.414, variance: 0.028 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -2255.928, variance: 0.204 Total number of jittering steps: 533. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.601, -0.018, 0.293, 0.659, 0.94]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.896, 3.988, 3.995, 3.998, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.204 │ 0.559 │ 0.04 │ -0.88 │ -0.169 │ 0.186 │ 0.559 │ 1.324 │ 184.205 │ 426.84 │ 1.023 │ │ σ │ 10.288 │ 0.529 │ 0.05 │ 9.143 │ 9.997 │ 10.307 │ 10.607 │ 11.263 │ 123.353 │ 93.784 │ 1.029 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -553.326, variance: 128.556 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1560.208, variance: 0.473 Total number of jittering steps: 651. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.594, -0.001, 0.389, 0.701, 0.945]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 4.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.956, 3.996, 3.998, 3.999, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.021 │ 0.066 │ 0.002 │ -0.052 │ -0.002 │ 0.023 │ 0.046 │ 0.09 │ 167.631 │ 456.364 │ 1.038 │ │ σ │ 1.076 │ 0.681 │ 0.039 │ 0.956 │ 0.989 │ 1.008 │ 1.031 │ 1.099 │ 14.676 │ 106.854 │ 1.187 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel SMC2Kernel Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 96.8%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -45.835, variance: 0.188 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -971.145, variance: 1.644 Total number of jittering steps: 93. Rejuvenations on average every 31.25 step, every 19.231 steps in first half, every 83.333 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.217, -0.093, 0.029, 0.249, 0.572]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.375, 3.75, 5.5, 8.5, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [2.984, 3.458, 3.66, 3.824, 3.992] for 4 chains. ┌────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ1 │ -0.696 │ 0.882 │ 0.215 │ -2.821 │ -1.092 │ -0.778 │ -0.028 │ 0.841 │ 23.115 │ 12.23 │ 1.312 │ │ μ2 │ 1.924 │ 0.065 │ 0.012 │ 1.816 │ 1.874 │ 1.908 │ 1.962 │ 2.083 │ 30.941 │ 52.577 │ 1.084 │ │ σ1 │ 1.889 │ 0.645 │ 0.181 │ 1.054 │ 1.485 │ 1.768 │ 2.044 │ 3.044 │ 7.806 │ 11.605 │ 1.452 │ │ σ2 │ 0.992 │ 0.069 │ 0.017 │ 0.874 │ 0.939 │ 0.996 │ 1.02 │ 1.15 │ 13.686 │ NaN │ 1.231 │ │ p1 │ 0.109 │ 0.036 │ 0.009 │ 0.053 │ 0.085 │ 0.111 │ 0.121 │ 0.189 │ 16.339 │ 18.177 │ 1.223 │ │ p2 │ 0.891 │ 0.036 │ 0.009 │ 0.811 │ 0.879 │ 0.889 │ 0.915 │ 0.947 │ 16.339 │ 56.762 │ 1.223 │ └────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel SMC2Kernel Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 98.2%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -281.856, variance: 0.212 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1560.447, variance: 2.922 Total number of jittering steps: 70. Rejuvenations on average every 55.556 step, every 35.714 steps in first half, every 125.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.343, -0.108, 0.617, 0.929, 0.946]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.4, 6.0, 10.0, 10.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.047, 3.387, 3.676, 3.874, 3.991] for 4 chains. ┌────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ1 │ -0.481 │ 0.142 │ 0.059 │ -0.679 │ -0.633 │ -0.445 │ -0.351 │ -0.225 │ 6.428 │ 17.865 │ 1.776 │ │ μ2 │ 0.796 │ 0.218 │ 0.083 │ 0.478 │ 0.609 │ 0.804 │ 0.967 │ 1.164 │ 7.283 │ 22.297 │ 1.524 │ │ σ1 │ 0.777 │ 0.075 │ 0.02 │ 0.687 │ 0.714 │ 0.78 │ 0.835 │ 0.905 │ 10.08 │ 19.35 │ 1.389 │ │ σ2 │ 0.757 │ 0.077 │ 0.028 │ 0.625 │ 0.72 │ 0.741 │ 0.795 │ 0.921 │ 6.228 │ 9.312 │ 1.777 │ │ p1 │ 0.599 │ 0.122 │ 0.049 │ 0.431 │ 0.474 │ 0.645 │ 0.716 │ 0.788 │ 6.971 │ 17.614 │ 1.645 │ │ p2 │ 0.401 │ 0.122 │ 0.049 │ 0.212 │ 0.284 │ 0.355 │ 0.526 │ 0.569 │ 6.971 │ 10.202 │ 1.645 │ └────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -191.383, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1126.935. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.812 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.52 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -191.484, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1126.896. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 16.876 (7) number of steps and depth of 3.486 (2). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -191.351, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1127.348. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 16.784 (7) number of steps and depth of 3.446 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -194.109, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1126.555. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 17.224 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.462 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.209 │ 0.721 │ 0.05 │ -1.161 │ -0.281 │ 0.207 │ 0.698 │ 1.591 │ 212.469 │ 554.496 │ 1.013 │ │ σ │ 10.351 │ 0.646 │ 0.055 │ 8.955 │ 9.98 │ 10.359 │ 10.747 │ 11.585 │ 154.01 │ 84.93 │ 1.033 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 400. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 400 Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1128.317, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1868.94. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 16.14 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.455 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1129.522, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1873.406. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 14.2 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.305 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1128.321, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1868.269. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 15.51 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.402 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1128.285, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1868.842. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 15.695 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.402 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.152 │ 0.491 │ 0.027 │ -0.776 │ -0.177 │ 0.169 │ 0.462 │ 1.108 │ 353.851 │ 416.429 │ 1.015 │ │ σ │ 10.104 │ 0.373 │ 0.029 │ 9.4 │ 9.853 │ 10.08 │ 10.347 │ 10.863 │ 190.712 │ 772.07 │ 1.027 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -193.287, variance: 0.111 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1128.993, variance: 0.646 Total number of jittering steps: 541. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.558, 0.03, 0.371, 0.664, 0.939]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.934, 3.994, 3.998, 3.999, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.154 │ 0.747 │ 0.043 │ -1.452 │ -0.309 │ 0.197 │ 0.668 │ 1.54 │ 307.26 │ 407.431 │ 1.026 │ │ σ │ 10.36 │ 0.67 │ 0.051 │ 8.771 │ 10.005 │ 10.378 │ 10.76 │ 11.636 │ 199.001 │ 98.323 │ 1.037 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -802.039, variance: 35301.894 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -774.329, variance: 2.253 Total number of jittering steps: 558. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.628, -0.016, 0.341, 0.664, 0.908]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.97, 3.997, 3.999, 3.999, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.023 │ 0.057 │ 0.003 │ -0.074 │ -0.013 │ 0.021 │ 0.057 │ 0.125 │ 252.679 │ 627.963 │ 1.026 │ │ σ │ 1.0 │ 0.291 │ 0.009 │ 0.909 │ 0.96 │ 0.984 │ 1.008 │ 1.069 │ 596.68 │ 399.207 │ 1.018 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel SMC2Kernel Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 98.6%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -82.632, variance: 21.676 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -486.137, variance: 1.118 Total number of jittering steps: 49. Rejuvenations on average every 71.429 step, every 41.667 steps in first half, every 250.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.283, -0.11, 0.148, 0.181, 0.228]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [5.0, 5.5, 6.0, 8.5, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.074, 3.5, 3.706, 3.868, 3.994] for 4 chains. ┌────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ1 │ -0.95 │ 1.292 │ 0.346 │ -3.774 │ -1.293 │ -0.809 │ -0.049 │ 0.468 │ 12.873 │ 21.982 │ 1.448 │ │ μ2 │ 1.926 │ 0.1 │ 0.029 │ 1.622 │ 1.896 │ 1.945 │ 1.98 │ 2.038 │ 14.934 │ 18.859 │ 1.437 │ │ σ1 │ 2.023 │ 0.987 │ 0.191 │ 0.994 │ 1.511 │ 1.759 │ 2.103 │ 5.885 │ 30.544 │ 38.903 │ 1.434 │ │ σ2 │ 0.996 │ 0.075 │ 0.011 │ 0.867 │ 0.952 │ 0.982 │ 1.01 │ 1.144 │ 39.974 │ 36.13 │ 1.391 │ │ p1 │ 0.103 │ 0.045 │ 0.015 │ 0.016 │ 0.063 │ 0.111 │ 0.128 │ 0.188 │ 10.048 │ 38.32 │ 1.356 │ │ p2 │ 0.897 │ 0.045 │ 0.015 │ 0.812 │ 0.872 │ 0.889 │ 0.937 │ 0.984 │ 10.048 │ 14.412 │ 1.356 │ └────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel SMC2Kernel Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 98.4%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -486.785, variance: 1.106 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -786.107, variance: 3.216 Total number of jittering steps: 80. Rejuvenations on average every 62.5 step, every 35.714 steps in first half, every 250.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [0.108, 0.18, 0.743, 0.892, 0.995]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [10.0, 10.0, 10.0, 10.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.037, 3.42, 3.7, 3.936, 3.995] for 4 chains. ┌────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ1 │ -0.147 │ 0.192 │ 0.045 │ -0.69 │ -0.186 │ -0.127 │ -0.081 │ 0.343 │ 11.985 │ 14.395 │ 1.239 │ │ μ2 │ 1.303 │ 0.524 │ 0.22 │ 0.439 │ 0.891 │ 1.61 │ 1.749 │ 1.98 │ 7.133 │ NaN │ 1.67 │ │ σ1 │ 1.043 │ 0.306 │ 0.055 │ 0.755 │ 0.917 │ 0.943 │ 1.009 │ 2.103 │ 32.222 │ 17.017 │ 1.563 │ │ σ2 │ 1.155 │ 0.189 │ 0.041 │ 0.781 │ 0.982 │ 1.248 │ 1.268 │ 1.442 │ 19.344 │ 10.675 │ 1.179 │ │ p1 │ 0.715 │ 0.27 │ 0.086 │ 0.111 │ 0.692 │ 0.799 │ 0.922 │ 0.969 │ 7.477 │ NaN │ 1.493 │ │ p2 │ 0.285 │ 0.27 │ 0.086 │ 0.031 │ 0.078 │ 0.201 │ 0.308 │ 0.889 │ 7.477 │ 9.362 │ 1.493 │ └────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -191.383, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1563.149. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 16.924 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.452 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -192.231, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1561.608. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 13.96 (31) number of steps and depth of 3.26 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -196.016, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1562.279. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 15.8 (23) number of steps and depth of 3.38 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 500 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -191.59, Avg. final ℓposterior: -1561.289. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 14.896 (23) number of steps and depth of 3.316 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.229 │ 0.697 │ 0.033 │ -1.152 │ -0.198 │ 0.247 │ 0.65 │ 1.6 │ 444.527 │ 496.32 │ 1.044 │ │ σ │ 10.337 │ 0.633 │ 0.055 │ 8.859 │ 10.0 │ 10.338 │ 10.713 │ 11.568 │ 156.273 │ 86.143 │ 1.054 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 400. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 400 Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### ########################################## Chain 1: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1564.529, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3105.465. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 14.88 (7) number of steps and depth of 3.392 (2). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 2: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1564.307, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3106.458. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 14.515 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.332 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 3: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1564.512, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3107.165. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 15.745 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.42 (4). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ########################################## Chain 4: MCMC Diagnostics: ### NUTS parameter target: (:μ, :σ) Sampler finished after 400 iterations with acceptance rates of 100.0%. Avg. initial ℓposterior: -1564.812, Avg. final ℓposterior: -3105.582. NUTS sampler had 0 divergent transitions. Average (final) stepsize of 0.1 (0.1) with 14.33 (15) number of steps and depth of 3.332 (3). Divergences in: Warmup: 0, Adaptionˢˡᵒʷ: 0, Adaptionᶠᵃˢᵗ: 0, Exploration: 0. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.146 │ 0.427 │ 0.026 │ -0.762 │ -0.116 │ 0.148 │ 0.432 │ 0.97 │ 283.49 │ 316.048 │ 1.017 │ │ σ │ 10.086 │ 0.296 │ 0.026 │ 9.557 │ 9.889 │ 10.074 │ 10.281 │ 10.709 │ 145.866 │ 495.055 │ 1.038 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -193.907, variance: 0.947 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1564.105, variance: 0.929 Total number of jittering steps: 529. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.624, -0.005, 0.317, 0.613, 0.929]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.933, 3.994, 3.997, 3.999, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.175 │ 0.685 │ 0.038 │ -1.339 │ -0.246 │ 0.207 │ 0.629 │ 1.398 │ 366.521 │ 301.923 │ 1.031 │ │ σ │ 10.319 │ 0.634 │ 0.049 │ 8.977 │ 9.974 │ 10.34 │ 10.689 │ 11.57 │ 176.398 │ 88.909 │ 1.047 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel MCMC Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 0.0%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1274.41, variance: 8167.121 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1361.256, variance: 0.883 Total number of jittering steps: 629. Rejuvenations on average every 1.0 step, every 1.0 steps in first half, every 1.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.692, 0.042, 0.413, 0.73, 0.96]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.948, 3.996, 3.998, 3.999, 4.0] for 4 chains. ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ -0.036 │ 0.05 │ 0.002 │ -0.121 │ -0.063 │ -0.035 │ -0.008 │ 0.041 │ 199.72 │ 640.749 │ 1.04 │ │ σ │ 1.045 │ 0.364 │ 0.012 │ 0.966 │ 1.003 │ 1.023 │ 1.043 │ 1.094 │ 214.22 │ 371.196 │ 1.026 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics and saving trace. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel SMC2Kernel Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 98.2%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -82.927, variance: 14.317 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -673.735, variance: 5.958 Total number of jittering steps: 55. Rejuvenations on average every 55.556 step, every 35.714 steps in first half, every 125.0 steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [-0.078, 0.012, 0.103, 0.235, 0.835]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [2.0, 3.0, 5.0, 10.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.031, 3.37, 3.716, 3.888, 3.996] for 4 chains. ┌────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ1 │ -1.637 │ 1.496 │ 0.464 │ -6.448 │ -2.345 │ -1.586 │ -0.46 │ 0.623 │ 9.86 │ 25.978 │ 1.358 │ │ μ2 │ 1.913 │ 0.109 │ 0.03 │ 1.644 │ 1.829 │ 1.929 │ 2.001 │ 2.076 │ 12.256 │ 42.188 │ 1.32 │ │ σ1 │ 2.069 │ 1.159 │ 0.244 │ 0.972 │ 1.417 │ 1.718 │ 2.101 │ 5.849 │ 25.203 │ 33.702 │ 1.142 │ │ σ2 │ 1.019 │ 0.079 │ 0.013 │ 0.916 │ 0.968 │ 1.013 │ 1.044 │ 1.258 │ 29.94 │ 22.405 │ 1.137 │ │ p1 │ 0.084 │ 0.039 │ 0.012 │ 0.013 │ 0.059 │ 0.087 │ 0.116 │ 0.156 │ 12.647 │ 17.486 │ 1.355 │ │ p2 │ 0.916 │ 0.039 │ 0.012 │ 0.844 │ 0.884 │ 0.913 │ 0.941 │ 0.987 │ 12.647 │ 22.574 │ 1.355 │ └────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 500. Sampling iterations set to 500 Sampling starts... Sampling finished, printing diagnostics. ##################################################################################### SMC algorithm with jitter kernel SMC2Kernel Diagnostics: Sampler finished after 500 iterations with average acceptance ratio of 98.6%. Initial average ℓlikelihood per particle: -675.926, variance: 6.08 Final average ℓlikelihood per particle: -1342.585, variance: 3.101 Total number of jittering steps: 59. Rejuvenations on average every 71.429 step, every 35.714 steps in first half, every Inf steps in second half. Quantiles for average rejuvenation correlation of parameter: [0.265, 0.477, 0.8, 0.898, 0.997]. Quantiles for average number rejuvenation steps: [2.05, 9.0, 10.0, 10.0, 10.0]. Quantiles for ESS: [3.081, 3.427, 3.686, 3.821, 3.985] for 4 chains. ┌────┬────────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├────┼────────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ1 │ -0.138 │ 0.312 │ 0.064 │ -0.547 │ -0.144 │ -0.058 │ -0.042 │ 0.05 │ 5.817 │ NaN │ 1.855 │ │ μ2 │ 1.571 │ 0.169 │ 0.049 │ 1.457 │ 1.471 │ 1.485 │ 1.534 │ 2.066 │ 5.611 │ 4.208 │ 1.926 │ │ σ1 │ 1.023 │ 0.215 │ 0.037 │ 0.842 │ 0.954 │ 0.96 │ 0.966 │ 1.912 │ 12.161 │ 10.779 │ 1.839 │ │ σ2 │ 1.243 │ 0.129 │ 0.05 │ 0.995 │ 1.264 │ 1.296 │ 1.318 │ 1.37 │ 6.035 │ NaN │ 1.789 │ │ p1 │ 0.854 │ 0.261 │ 0.058 │ 0.092 │ 0.944 │ 0.957 │ 0.971 │ 0.977 │ 5.744 │ NaN │ 1.882 │ │ p2 │ 0.146 │ 0.261 │ 0.058 │ 0.023 │ 0.029 │ 0.043 │ 0.056 │ 0.908 │ 5.744 │ 4.208 │ 1.882 │ └────┴────────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ NaN │ 8.398 │ NaN │ └───┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ ┌───┬──────┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ NaN │ 8.398 │ NaN │ └───┴──────┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ σ │ 10.062 │ 0.137 │ 0.034 │ 9.757 │ 9.994 │ 10.06 │ 10.144 │ 10.273 │ 13.991 │ 78.072 │ 1.217 │ │ μ │ 0.289 │ 0.001 │ 0.0 │ 0.288 │ 0.289 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.291 │ 13.991 │ 10.965 │ 1.217 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ NaN │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ NaN │ 8.398 │ NaN │ └───┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ ┌───┬──────┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ NaN │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ NaN │ 8.398 │ NaN │ └───┴──────┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ σ │ 10.016 │ 0.136 │ 0.027 │ 9.799 │ 9.935 │ 10.0 │ 10.148 │ 10.28 │ 34.355 │ 43.411 │ 1.193 │ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.001 │ 0.0 │ 0.288 │ 0.289 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.291 │ 34.355 │ 69.072 │ 1.193 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 6.48 │ 8.398 │ 1.778 │ └───┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ ┌───┬──────┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 6.48 │ 8.398 │ 1.778 │ └───┴──────┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ σ │ 9.993 │ 0.142 │ 0.038 │ 9.776 │ 9.855 │ 10.004 │ 10.105 │ 10.264 │ 13.357 │ 29.264 │ 1.25 │ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.001 │ 0.0 │ 0.288 │ 0.289 │ 0.29 │ 0.291 │ 0.291 │ 13.418 │ 34.782 │ 1.25 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 6.069 │ 8.398 │ 1.931 │ └───┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ ┌───┬──────┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 6.069 │ 8.398 │ 1.931 │ └───┴──────┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ σ │ 9.987 │ 0.367 │ 0.145 │ 9.416 │ 9.737 │ 9.964 │ 10.245 │ 10.514 │ 6.732 │ 5.841 │ 1.737 │ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.002 │ 0.001 │ 0.287 │ 0.289 │ 0.29 │ 0.291 │ 0.293 │ 7.252 │ 43.381 │ 1.638 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ NaN │ 8.398 │ NaN │ └───┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ ┌───┬──────┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ NaN │ 8.398 │ NaN │ └───┴──────┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ σ │ 10.015 │ 0.226 │ 0.031 │ 9.64 │ 9.815 │ 10.028 │ 10.193 │ 10.391 │ 53.704 │ 53.689 │ 1.047 │ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.001 │ 0.0 │ 0.288 │ 0.289 │ 0.29 │ 0.291 │ 0.292 │ 53.704 │ 53.689 │ 1.047 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ NaN │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ NaN │ 8.398 │ NaN │ └───┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ ┌───┬──────┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼──────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ NaN │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ NaN │ 8.398 │ NaN │ └───┴──────┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴──────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ σ │ 10.033 │ 0.229 │ 0.053 │ 9.65 │ 9.821 │ 10.062 │ 10.208 │ 10.409 │ 22.732 │ 19.942 │ 1.157 │ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.001 │ 0.0 │ 0.288 │ 0.289 │ 0.289 │ 0.291 │ 0.292 │ 22.732 │ 59.186 │ 1.157 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 6.587 │ 71.244 │ 1.746 │ └───┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ ┌───┬──────┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 6.587 │ 71.244 │ 1.746 │ └───┴──────┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬───────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼───────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ σ │ 9.962 │ 0.222 │ 0.026 │ 9.609 │ 9.832 │ 9.973 │ 10.086 │ 10.392 │ 78.197 │ 16.919 │ 1.17 │ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.001 │ 0.0 │ 0.288 │ 0.289 │ 0.29 │ 0.291 │ 0.292 │ 76.405 │ 45.758 │ 1.172 │ └───┴───────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 6.401 │ 8.398 │ 1.806 │ └───┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ ┌───┬──────┬──────┬──────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ True │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼──────┼──────┼──────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ μ │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 0.29 │ 6.401 │ 8.398 │ 1.806 │ └───┴──────┴──────┴──────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... ┌───┬────────┬───────┬────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┬────────┬────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────┐ │ │ Mean │ MCSE │ StdDev │ Q2.5 │ Q25.0 │ Q50.0 │ Q75.0 │ Q97.5 │ ESS_bulk │ ESS_tail │ Rhat │ ├───┼────────┼───────┼────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┼────────┼────────┼──────────┼──────────┼───────┤ │ σ │ 10.008 │ 0.215 │ 0.043 │ 9.677 │ 9.845 │ 9.993 │ 10.193 │ 10.379 │ 27.95 │ 20.393 │ 1.114 │ │ μ │ 0.29 │ 0.001 │ 0.0 │ 0.288 │ 0.289 │ 0.29 │ 0.291 │ 0.292 │ 27.764 │ 79.222 │ 1.114 │ └───┴────────┴───────┴────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┴────────┴────────┴──────────┴──────────┴───────┘ Sampling starts... Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 10000. Sampling iterations set to 900 Max iterations in Expanding/Rolling datatune set to 900. Iterations in SampleDefault are 10. Sampling iterations set to 10 Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Constructing new sampler... Sampling starts... Sampling starts... Test Summary: | Pass Total Time All tests | 214 214 16m17.9s Testing Baytes tests passed Testing completed after 1019.74s PkgEval succeeded after 1168.08s