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On the other hand, should the NFP data come out weaker than expected, risk markets will likely come under pressure on concern for the weaker data, and although this will do more to keep the Fed from shifting its policy stance, we feel it will still be too hard for investors to feel good about buying risk on a bleaker US employment picture.
The employment-to-population ratio, which tracks how many people have jobs as a percentage of the total civilian working-age population, helps fill in the nation’s jobs picture.
In July, the private sector added a robust 172,000 jobs in the twenty-ninth consecutive month of private sector job growth. Overall, our outlook for today’s NFP data jives well with our bearish view of US equities and risk. For the overall population, that ratio has been practically flat for most of the past four years, hovering between 58% and 59% — indicating that, overall, the economy is creating just about enough new jobs to keep pace with population growth. It is also the third month since the number of net private sector jobs gained or lost during the Obama administration turned positive.
It will likely continue to remain so as more people enter the labor force as the economy improves, even if the private sector continues to add jobs at similar rates.

Interestingly enough, we therefore see the risks from today’s data tilted to the downside no matter what the number. Private businesses continue to be the main driver of job growth, adding 233,000 jobs in February. The economy would need to destroy 978,000 private sector jobs for Bush to break even with Obama (not accounting for the 125,000 jobs that the economy must create each month just to keep pace with population growth). Moreover, 163,000 is above the 125,000 jobs needed each month just to keep pace with the growth of the working-age population, which is encouraging news. In February, the strongest hiring came in professional and business services, which added 82,000 jobs. Behind the jobs recovery His clients are also starting to beef up their human resources departments with new recruiters, a sign that more hiring could be in the pipeline, he said.Meanwhile, the manufacturing sector also continued to be a strong job creator, adding 31,000 jobs.
Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc.

Restaurants and bars added 41,000 jobs -- an encouraging sign that employers may be expecting greater consumer spending in the future.
The health care and social assistance sector created 61,000 new jobs.Government job cuts have been offsetting some of the private sector gains since mid 2010, but have recently started to slow. Last month, 6,000 jobs were lost in the public sector -- a far cry from the much steeper cuts above 20,000 just three months earlier.Despite all the improvement, the job market still has a long way to go to get back to pre-recession levels.

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