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05.08.2014
Employees' negative views of job creation in the federal government represent a sharp change from previous years. State and local government job creation also declined in December, with the state index at -5 and the local index at -4.
State and local government job creation has been negative during recent years, even as the federal government and the private sector were producing new jobs. Gallup's Job Creation Index shows major shifts in the hiring and firing patterns across federal, state, and local governments since 2008.
On a more positive note, the moderation of state and local government job losses may mean that these government entities are finally reaching a new equilibrium. Americans with government-sponsored insurance are the most likely to be satisfied with the way the healthcare system works for them, while those without insurance are least likely to be satisfied. The up-tick in 2010 was mostly census workers, but also some administration of Obama’s jobs stimulus. As Washington inches closer to massive spending cuts, we should consider the effect that lost government jobs will have on the broader U.S. Criticism over how the University of Missouri handled a series of racist incidents on campus this fall has claimed the jobs of two top officials: President Tim Wolfe and Chancellor R. Despite the recession and financial crisis of 2008-2009, federal government workers were reporting more hiring than firing until early 2011.


State job creation began declining in December 2008 and local government job creation began its decline the following month. In late 2011, the job situation appears to have moderated at the state and local level, while the federal job situation continued to deteriorate. Initially, in 2008, 2009, and 2010, the federal government was largely insulated from the job losses the private nongovernment sector and state and local governments were experiencing since the recession and financial crisis.
That is, state and local government revenues may now be stabilizing at more sustainable levels.
The current level of job creation tends to reinforce the idea that the private sector continues to produce jobs at a consistently moderate pace. While 23% of federal employees in December said their area was hiring, 43% said employees were being let go -- by far the most negative conditions Gallup has found since it began tracking federal government job creation in August 2008. Federal job creation fell to the single digits in January and has been generally negative since then, with more workers reporting firing than hiring since June.
State and local governments have been shrinking their workforces since that point with the declines peaking in April 2010. That all changed in the past three months when federal government employees began to report lower job creation at their places of employment, while the picture moderated with less losses at state and local governments, and remained positive and stable for private-sector workers. Federal government, state, and local results for December are each based on interviews totaling more than 600 adults.


On Sunday, my colleague Derek Thompson pointed out that government jobs have declined by a larger percentage than private sector jobs since President Obama took office. Private-sector job creation is also essential if those leaving government jobs at all levels are going to find new nongovernment employment opportunities. But within that data you find two very different stories, however: federal government jobs have flourished while state and local government jobs have plummeted.
Here's a chart showing the two contrasting paths (the purple line marks the start of Obama's term): Do your best to ignore those big spikes on the red line for federal jobs. As you can see, federal government jobs (excluding the postal service) have actually grown fairly aggressively since Obama took office.
If state and local governments had just left their 2008 spending levels intact instead of cutting jobs since 2009, then the U.S. But if federal cuts also ramp up, then we'll have an even stronger headwind working against the private sector's job growth.




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