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Expectations have been bolstered by a study by the University of Southern California that projected millions of new jobs and billions of dollars in tax revenue for the state and local governments. California’s retail gasoline prices are highly unlikely to be depressed by local fuel supply, just as the glut of crude in Cushing, Oklahoma, has not seriously affected gas prices elsewhere in the nation. California drivers are not going to drive more miles or buy more gas-guzzling cars just because their gasoline and diesel is locally pumped rather than being imported from Saudi Arabia or Ecuador. While roughly 50 percent of California’s total refinery capacity is for production of gasoline, the rest is for diesel, aviation and bunker fuels, chemicals, asphalt and other products, none of which are likely to sell more just because the petroleum from which they are sourced is locally produced. California’s refining capacity is configured for a wide range of oil viscosity, including heavy imported crude. Our study focuses on the San Joaquin Valley only, while the USC study examines the entire State of California. California unconventional oil will produce virtually nothing through 2020, then 10,000 barrels daily in 2025, 40,000 barrels daily in 2030, and 60,000 barrels per day in 2035.
California jobs, income and tax revenues will experience modest increases – but with a huge caveat. Next Generation continues to examine the economic potential of drilling the Monterey Shale and finds more reports at odds with USC's study projecting millions of new jobs. The red states had the most green job announcements last year, according to the business group Environmental Entrepreneurs.

Oregon ranked tenth in the country for green job announcements last year, according to the green business group Environmental Entrepreneurs.
The group, also known as E2, tracks green job announcements and sends out monthly newsletters tallying the new clean energy and clean transportation jobs across the country.
Other states had far more of these green job announcements: California topped the list with 26,354 jobs in clean energy and transportation. For example, in May of last year, E2 added 95 jobs to Oregon’s tally for the Columbia Biogas project in Portland. California continues to see fairly robust job activity for both clean-tech startups and established players, with the state’s high-tech giants like Cisco, Intel, and Google aggressively expanding their smart-grid initiatives, says Clean Edge. The report also recommends five steps that nation’s should take to build a clean-tech jobs future.
Yea, we may be a few steps ahead but so many people still need jobs so lets not sit back and talk about our accomplishments quite yet.
The study was paid for by the Western States Petroleum Association (WSPA), the California oil industry’s main lobbying organization. As California continues debate over oil policies in 2014 and beyond, the realpolitik of jobs and the economy will remain as central to decision making as it always has been in American politics. Antonio Avalos and David Vera, economics professors at California State University at Fresno, were commissioned by WSPA to carry out projections of economic impact only for the San Joaquin Valley.

However, even the CSU Fresno study’s numbers must be discounted somewhat because they include jobs in refinery production and gasoline station sales, neither of which would be likely to grow in any oil boom scenario. That put Oregon in the running with Texas (3,426 jobs), Michigan (3,714 jobs) and New York (3,793 jobs). North Carolina was a distant second with 10,867 jobs, followed by Florida with 8,659 jobs.
Houston made the most significant improvement, jumping seven places from 15th to eighth, which reflects the city’s broader jobs boom, says Clean Edge. However, because in-state oil production is expected to be flat, these benefits will be generated only by spill-over spending from other states such as North Dakota and Texas as California-based companies Chevron and Occidental benefit from out-of-state work.
Regardless of what happens with the Monterey Shale, the state’s diverse economy and penchant for technology innovation are likely to continue to be the real California Gold Rush. Examples could include additional income to headquarters employees or stockholders of these companies, out-of-state work by California-based consultants and oil service providers, or exports by California manufacturers of oilfield equipment.

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