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admin 21.12.2013

12 Players Who Cardinals Could Target in 2015 MLB Draft St. A rundown of various players of interest taken by the Cardinals in the 2015 first-year player draft, delivered to you in typically long-winded fashion. The Cardinals, under their new scouting director Chris Correa, took an unexpected tack in the draft this year. Looking ahead to day three of the draft, and parsing out a few talents your humble guide would like to see taken by the Redbirds. With the 2015 MLB Draft is just over a week away, I figured I'd take a Cardinals-specific approach to a topic that has intrigued me for some time now. Interestingly, MLB has a similar bonus pool system in place for signing international free agents, and there have been several instances of teams blowing past their spending limits in order to sign a large crop of young talent. Currently, teams follow the draft bonus pool system, for the most part, and almost always signing draft picks close to their slot value. To start, here is a list of all the draft picks the Cardinals have in the first ten round of the 2015 draft. I decided to use a draft pick's signing bonus amount as a proxy for talent level; for example, an over slot second round pick who receives a $2 million signing bonus would have the talent level of a first round pick (21st overall), since that pick's slot value is approximately $2 million. It's also possible that I'm overestimating the amount of talent available in the draft by using signing bonus amount as a proxy for talent level. RB and I will be putting up profiles of players in separate posts as we have time throughout the day, but this can serve as a discussion thread for everyone following the draft.
A few years ago, MLB established new draft rules which attempted to regulate how much teams could spend on newly drafted players.
For high school and college players taken in the June amateur draft, there will be five bands of penalties, starting with a 75 percent tax on the amount 0-5 percent over a specified threshold for each team next year, based on its selection spot. While most teams have been comfortable with going 0-5 percent over their spending limit, no team (as far as I know) has been willing to go past that amount and face the loss of first-round draft picks.
As this strategy has become more common around baseball, I began to wonder why we haven't seen it translated to the draft. If a team drafts a player that will take more money to sign, they usually compensate by drafting a below-slot player, such as a college senior, in order to avoid going over their bonus pool.

To figure out how an all-out spending strategy would work, I used signing bonus data from last year's draft.
I went through each pick at the Cardinals' spot and found the highest signing bonus that was signed from that spot or later in last year's draft. With these picks, the Cardinals draft pool would be worth $6,792,000 (using 2014 slot values) but they would end up spending $11,505,000. Players are drafted where they are for a reason, even if their signing bonus suggests that they should have been drafted much higher. Sacrificing 2016 and 2017 first round picks would be tough to do, but it could be worthwhile, especially if the Cardinals think they'll be at the bottom of the draft order during those years. Louis Cardinals Minors: 2015 draft picks shining early on St.
This "bonus pool" system has been in place since the 2012 draft, and it has significantly changed the strategy behind drafting and signing players.
For teams going 5-10 percent over, the tax will rise to 100 percent and they will lose their next first-round draft pick. Off the top of my head, I would imagine that compared to the draft, the free-for-all nature of the international market makes it easier for teams to acquire a lot of top talent at once, which helps them justify taking on the resulting penalties. As a result, teams rarely, if ever, use the "best player available" draft approach (even if they publicly say that they do), since signability and cost considerations are such an important factor in the draft. Unfortunately, signing bonuses for players drafted after the tenth round are not usually made public, so I had to piece together what little information I could find in order to get a good idea of how many over slot players are signed (or could be signed) late in the draft and how big their signing bonuses are. And I didn't even include draft picks who didn't end up signing (with two notable exceptions). A third round pick who ends up with a seven figure signing bonus may be worth less than a first round pick who signed for the same amount, simply because more teams had the chance to draft the third round player and chose not to.
If the Cardinals find themselves in a position to draft over slot players that they are high on, they shouldn't let bonus pool concerns get in their way.
If a team goes more than 15 percent over, it could lose its following two first-round draft picks. Because all 30 teams are involved in the draft in a more equal capacity, there is less of an opportunity for one team to acquire a lot of top talent and justify losing future first round draft picks.

Because the draft is in June, teams can't be sure of where they will end the season, so they would be taking the risk of losing a more valuable pick than they had anticipated. A team that was already willing to go over their bonus pool could also draft the tough signability players and have a better ability to meet their demands.
It might not make sense for them to try this approach in 2015, especially since this year's draft class looks relatively weak. Getting as much top 2-3 round talent is especially important, since evidence suggests that the draft is more or less a crapshoot after the first few rounds. However, it is certainly something they could at least consider and reevaluate as circumstances change with each draft going forward. I wasn't concerned about who the individual players were; instead, I wanted to get a good idea of what level of talent the Cardinals could get at different spots in the draft. Louis Cardinals have now signed 28 of their 2015 MLB Draft Picks and some of these players are already starting to make their presence known. Louis Cardinals, who spent the past few seasons with one of the deepest, most talented farm systems in baseball, are now in need of talented depth just as much or even more than most of the clubs around the league.
With a primarily young core consisting of guys who are years away from free agency, such as Wong, Wacha, Matt Carpenter, and Trevor Rosenthal, it’s not essential that the Cardinals bring in players who are capable of reaching the big leagues in insanely quick fashion like Wacha and Marco Gonzales did, with each player having debuted in the majors roughly a year after being drafted. Louis Cardinals have selected Nick Plummer, an outfielder from Brother Rice High School in Michigan, with the 23rd overall selection of the first round in the 2015 MLB Draft. Louis Blues Seek Third Win this Season Against Nashville Predators8h agoArch Awards: Stephen Piscotty was St. With that said, the Cardinals have never failed to sign a first-rounder since the draft began in 1965, so the Cards should be able to work something out with Plummer.

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