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This recent fertility decline may be just a short-term response to high unemployment rates, or it may signal a longer-term drop in lifetime fertility. Fertility Rates for Latinas and Black Women Are Approaching Those of White and Asian Women. A prolonged decline in African American and Latina fertility rates will affect the future racial and ethnic composition of the United States. However, longer-term fertility trends may depend on future trends in women's employment and earnings relative to men.8 Women outnumber men in college and make up a growing share of the labor force. The total fertility rate estimates the number of births a woman is expected to have during her lifetime based on current age-specific fertility rates.
Wolfgang Lutz, Vegard Skirbekk, and Maria Rita Testa, "The Low Fertility Trap Hypothesis," in Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, ed.


The number of international migrants is projected to double from 230 million to over 400 million by 2050. Every year PRB provides the latest demographic data for the world, global regions, and over 200 countries.
Most recessions have had relatively minor effects on fertility rates—often lasting two to five years. In Europe, high rates of unemployment and low levels of economic security are strongly associated with declines in fertility among young adults.7 The economic downturn may have had a similar effect on young adults' fertility in the United States. Replacement level fertility is the level of fertility at which a couple has only enough children to replace themselves, or about 2.1 children per couple. Census Bureau, "Most Children Younger Than Age 1 Are Minorities," accessed on June 7, 2012.


Fertility rates among white and Asian women have also dropped, but at a slower pace, resulting in similar fertility rates among different racial and ethnic groups. Forty years ago, birth rates among women in their 20s were significantly higher than those of women in their 30s.
In 1970, there were 168 births per 1,000 women ages 20 to 24, compared with 73 births per 1,000 women ages 30 to 34. In 2010, the birth rate among teens dropped to 34 births per 1,000 girls ages 15 to 19—the lowest level ever recorded in the United States.



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